alexz
01-20-2007, 01:23 AM
Father of the ‘Arrow’ missile Dov Raviv believes he has the answer to Hizbullah’s Katushyas. Will the defense establishment listen?
Amnon Barzilai 11 Jan 07 16:41
To the current nuclear arms race between Israel and Iran has been added a bombshell dropped by MST founder, chairman, and CEO Dov Raviv, the “Father of the Arrow anti-ballistic missile". Raviv announced that he has developed a system, called the “Hotzetz,” (Buffer) for defending Israel against missiles, rockets and Katushyas with ranges from 5-1,500 kilometers. Raviv’s plan has caused uproar within the defense establishment, which has functioned under problematic civilian and military leadership since the second Lebanon war, and which suffers from lack of public confidence and support. Israel Aerospace Industries Ltd. (IAI) has decided to back Raviv’s plan and has adopted the project.
The plan was presented to Ministry of Defense director general Maj. Gen. (Res) Gabi Ashkenazi during his visit to IAI’s factories several months back. IAI CEO Itzhak Nissan told Ashkenazi that the company was willing to allocate tens of millions of dollars from its profit in 2005 and the profit it will make for 2006, to the development of the Hotzetz. This represents an unprecedented offer. Two weeks ago, Raviv presented his plan to IDF Deputy Chief of Staff Maj. Gen. Moshe Kaplinski, who is responsible for the IDF budget and force building. 2007 is likely to see a dramatic rise in the activity of the defense establishment, to counteract both the Iranian threat, and the threat from short-range missiles, which since the second Lebanon war now appear to pose a strategic threat to Israel.
Sources inform ''Globes'' that Israel will launch two spy satellites in 2007, and it will carry out two interception trials with the Arrow missile. Minister of Defense Amir Peretz, whose public career is problematic, will soon have to decide which anti- Kassam rocket system the Ministry of Defense will invest hundreds of millions of dollars in.
Raviv’s plan, about which not much is known, also exposed the internal tensions and problematic structure of the Ministry of Defense directorate of defense R&D, and it gives rise to the question as to why the directorate is fronting two short-range anti ballistic missile programs in two separate entities. One of these is headed by Aryeh Herzog, director of the “Homa” project. Herzog is leading a joint Israel-US program, a partnership between Rafael Armament Development Authority Ltd. and Raytheon Co. (NYSE: RTN), for the interception of missiles and Katushya rockets with ranges of 40 km.
The other program is headed by the defense establishment’s chief R&D officer, Brig. Gen. Danny Gold, who will be responsible for a project for intercepting Kassams and rockets with ranges of 5-40 kilometers. Under the original decision, this program was also to have been handed over to Rafael, but following a string of appeals from companies such as IAI, Israel Military Industries Ltd. (IMI), Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC), and Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT), who proposals of their own, Peretz faces a tough problem.
While all this going on, Raviv has dropped another bombshell. In an interview with “Globes,” Raviv says that the Arrow missile that he designed 20 years ago, and which was declared at the beginning of the decade to be operational by the Israel Air Force, does not provide a response at the level of certainty required to counter advanced missiles with nuclear warheads and decoys, of the type he feels that Iran will have in 10-15 years.
Developing a new generation
Globes: You have always claimed that the Arrow system that you developed provides a response to non-conventional threats such missiles with nuclear, biological and chemical warheads.
Raviv: “That was the aim when I designed it, to intercept missiles with a 99.9% success rate, and that’s what it can do. It can prevent us being attacked successfully with nuclear missiles.”
So what has changed?
“Sophisticated missiles with decoys represent a different situation. The defense system does not see one missile but a whole range of targets, and it has to be able to detect which of these is the real threat. These are challenges that the superpowers have been faced with when designing anti ballistic missile systems. Once Iran has ballistic missiles with nuclear warheads, it will be able to buy this technology. So in 10-15 years time we are likely to face an Iranian threat that is highly sophisticated, and we have to find a solution to it well in advance.”
Is the Arrow not the answer?
“The answer to this threat has less to do with the missile and more to do with the system’s sensors and intelligence data on the types of decoys. There is a lot of uncertainty surrounding all of this. The element of uncertainly reduces the chances of interception and increases the danger of nuclear devastation.”
That sounds frightening. We invested $2.5 billion in the Arrow, and now we will have to invest the same amount in the development of a new system to counter more advanced missiles.
“By no means. The missile is fine, it can intercept, but it has to know which target to attack. So we need to develop new generations of the Arrow to counter the new threats.”
How much will this cost?
“I can’t give an estimate on this.”
Is this a challenge that we can deal with?
“The problem of decoys is a challenge for sensors, not the interception system. They have to differentiate between those targets that are real and those that are decoys. So this is a systems problem. The Arrow can intercept any missile coming from our region.”
The Ministry of Defense is interested in the US Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile. What is your view on this?
“It should be understood that the superpowers do not have anti-ballistic missile systems. The THAAD is similar to the Arrow, and it does not have the ability to identify decoys either. The superpowers prepared for the option of a second strike during the Cold War which, in practical terms, meant either the US or the former Soviet Union took the first blow and then hit back. This is deterrent. Israel, by contrast, cannot take the first blow because it would cease to exist. The Arrow is our insurance.”
In recent years, Raviv tried, unsuccessfully, to interest the Ministry of Defense in the development of large satellite launchers. Following this disappointment, he moved into the solar energy business and focused on the development of alternatives to oil and gas. “These are things that I do in my spare time.” Today, he is technical manager for a company that represents foreign agencies in the defense sector, among others. His renewed interest in Israel’s anti-ballistic missile defense began during the second Lebanon war. “A friend asked me if I could so something to stop the Katushya rocket attacks on the north. I said that I felt that it was possible, not complicated. I designed a system within one week and patented it.”
Raviv feels that the laser-based solution for rocket interception is not suited to the range of threats that Israel faces. In his view, just as the Palestinians and Hizbullah are firing rockets from the Gaza Strip and Southern Lebanon, the Eastern border with the Palestinian Authority could also erupt. To provide protection for the entire population, he thinks that a large number of laser interception systems would be needed, against his own solution which is based on eight batteries deployed across Israel.
Raviv’s Kassam interception missile is confidential, but missile and systems engineers at IAI who have seen the plans have praised the concept behind them. Raviv was invited to a meeting with the IAI management, at which he expounded at length on his program, following which the management welcomed it enthusiastically. This endorsement may also be due to the blow that IAI took when the Ministry of Defense preferred Rafael’s medium range missile and Katyusha rocket defense development program - the David’s Sling Project - over its own. Without much fuss, it was decided that IAI’s Malam missile factory, which manufactures the Arrow, would be the lead contractor for Raviv’s project. The plan was presented to the Ministry of Defense, following which, Raviv says, “pandemonium broke loose.”
What are the chances that your plan will be accepted?
“The defense establishment will have to study the proposal’s economic side, operational capabilities, and technical aspects to see whether it is compatible with its way of thinking. I think that the “Hotzetz” also solves the problem from the point of view of cost-benefit, but the Ministry of Defense directorate of defense R&D has a problem: It chose two projects, while my idea, which calls for one interception that will solve the problem of Kassams, missiles and Katyushas with ranges from 5-1,500 kilometers, has disrupted their plans.”
Putting the train back on track
Why is this a problem?
“Because the missile that they chose to develop at Rafael costs $400,000 while the one I’m offering costs $80,000. That’s a substantial difference.”
Can you prove that your figures are correct?
“They are correct to the same extent that Rafael’s figures are correct. There’s an industry that backs up these figures, it’s not just Dov Raviv.”
Why didn’t you propose this program when you developed the Arrow?
“I tried to solve the problem with short-range Katyushas and Kassam rockets. While I was designing the solution, I found that the same missile, which in my system was designed to intercept missiles with ranges of 5-40 kilometers, had unlimited capacity against missiles with ranges of more than 1,500 kilometers, something that no missile has today. This was the main reason for patenting the system. If I had a received a specification for the development of such a missile, I would have laughed in disbelief. It happened by accident.”
Could you tell us how it happened?
“Many people would like to know what I did, and that’s why I’ve patented it. IAI knows, and if Israel buys the solution it could become the owner of this asset. If not, some other country will get it instead.”
Is that a threat?
“I have to look out for myself and I don’t intend to become a martyr. There are no free meals here. Obviously Israel will get priority, if it decides to adopt the solution.”
It looks like the train has already left the station, and the Ministry of Defense has already approved other plans.
“Rubbish. They’ve spent $5 million on a $600 million project. If the train has left the station and is on the wrong track, it needs to be brought back. This is not a tender for the construction of some community center, this is the security of the country.”
The war would have been over in a week
The US is already involved and has provided funding for the David’s Sling Program
“Where’s the connection? Rafael’s program was selected before the Lebanon war, and the problem that needs addressing today is different from what it was when the tender was announced. There’s no shame in abandoning the first solution if an external party comes along with a better and cheaper one.
“I believe that if the “Hotetz” had been available in the summer, the whole story with of the Katyushas would have been a joke. People could have watched the “Hotzetz” rockets blowing up Katushyas from their rooftops, and the war would have been over within a week. Hizbullah would have realized that their attempts to fire rockets at settlements in the north were futile.”
Published by Globes [online], Israel business news - www.globes.co.il - on January 11, 2007
© Copyright of Globes Publisher Itonut (1983) Ltd. 2006
Amnon Barzilai 11 Jan 07 16:41
To the current nuclear arms race between Israel and Iran has been added a bombshell dropped by MST founder, chairman, and CEO Dov Raviv, the “Father of the Arrow anti-ballistic missile". Raviv announced that he has developed a system, called the “Hotzetz,” (Buffer) for defending Israel against missiles, rockets and Katushyas with ranges from 5-1,500 kilometers. Raviv’s plan has caused uproar within the defense establishment, which has functioned under problematic civilian and military leadership since the second Lebanon war, and which suffers from lack of public confidence and support. Israel Aerospace Industries Ltd. (IAI) has decided to back Raviv’s plan and has adopted the project.
The plan was presented to Ministry of Defense director general Maj. Gen. (Res) Gabi Ashkenazi during his visit to IAI’s factories several months back. IAI CEO Itzhak Nissan told Ashkenazi that the company was willing to allocate tens of millions of dollars from its profit in 2005 and the profit it will make for 2006, to the development of the Hotzetz. This represents an unprecedented offer. Two weeks ago, Raviv presented his plan to IDF Deputy Chief of Staff Maj. Gen. Moshe Kaplinski, who is responsible for the IDF budget and force building. 2007 is likely to see a dramatic rise in the activity of the defense establishment, to counteract both the Iranian threat, and the threat from short-range missiles, which since the second Lebanon war now appear to pose a strategic threat to Israel.
Sources inform ''Globes'' that Israel will launch two spy satellites in 2007, and it will carry out two interception trials with the Arrow missile. Minister of Defense Amir Peretz, whose public career is problematic, will soon have to decide which anti- Kassam rocket system the Ministry of Defense will invest hundreds of millions of dollars in.
Raviv’s plan, about which not much is known, also exposed the internal tensions and problematic structure of the Ministry of Defense directorate of defense R&D, and it gives rise to the question as to why the directorate is fronting two short-range anti ballistic missile programs in two separate entities. One of these is headed by Aryeh Herzog, director of the “Homa” project. Herzog is leading a joint Israel-US program, a partnership between Rafael Armament Development Authority Ltd. and Raytheon Co. (NYSE: RTN), for the interception of missiles and Katushya rockets with ranges of 40 km.
The other program is headed by the defense establishment’s chief R&D officer, Brig. Gen. Danny Gold, who will be responsible for a project for intercepting Kassams and rockets with ranges of 5-40 kilometers. Under the original decision, this program was also to have been handed over to Rafael, but following a string of appeals from companies such as IAI, Israel Military Industries Ltd. (IMI), Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC), and Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT), who proposals of their own, Peretz faces a tough problem.
While all this going on, Raviv has dropped another bombshell. In an interview with “Globes,” Raviv says that the Arrow missile that he designed 20 years ago, and which was declared at the beginning of the decade to be operational by the Israel Air Force, does not provide a response at the level of certainty required to counter advanced missiles with nuclear warheads and decoys, of the type he feels that Iran will have in 10-15 years.
Developing a new generation
Globes: You have always claimed that the Arrow system that you developed provides a response to non-conventional threats such missiles with nuclear, biological and chemical warheads.
Raviv: “That was the aim when I designed it, to intercept missiles with a 99.9% success rate, and that’s what it can do. It can prevent us being attacked successfully with nuclear missiles.”
So what has changed?
“Sophisticated missiles with decoys represent a different situation. The defense system does not see one missile but a whole range of targets, and it has to be able to detect which of these is the real threat. These are challenges that the superpowers have been faced with when designing anti ballistic missile systems. Once Iran has ballistic missiles with nuclear warheads, it will be able to buy this technology. So in 10-15 years time we are likely to face an Iranian threat that is highly sophisticated, and we have to find a solution to it well in advance.”
Is the Arrow not the answer?
“The answer to this threat has less to do with the missile and more to do with the system’s sensors and intelligence data on the types of decoys. There is a lot of uncertainty surrounding all of this. The element of uncertainly reduces the chances of interception and increases the danger of nuclear devastation.”
That sounds frightening. We invested $2.5 billion in the Arrow, and now we will have to invest the same amount in the development of a new system to counter more advanced missiles.
“By no means. The missile is fine, it can intercept, but it has to know which target to attack. So we need to develop new generations of the Arrow to counter the new threats.”
How much will this cost?
“I can’t give an estimate on this.”
Is this a challenge that we can deal with?
“The problem of decoys is a challenge for sensors, not the interception system. They have to differentiate between those targets that are real and those that are decoys. So this is a systems problem. The Arrow can intercept any missile coming from our region.”
The Ministry of Defense is interested in the US Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile. What is your view on this?
“It should be understood that the superpowers do not have anti-ballistic missile systems. The THAAD is similar to the Arrow, and it does not have the ability to identify decoys either. The superpowers prepared for the option of a second strike during the Cold War which, in practical terms, meant either the US or the former Soviet Union took the first blow and then hit back. This is deterrent. Israel, by contrast, cannot take the first blow because it would cease to exist. The Arrow is our insurance.”
In recent years, Raviv tried, unsuccessfully, to interest the Ministry of Defense in the development of large satellite launchers. Following this disappointment, he moved into the solar energy business and focused on the development of alternatives to oil and gas. “These are things that I do in my spare time.” Today, he is technical manager for a company that represents foreign agencies in the defense sector, among others. His renewed interest in Israel’s anti-ballistic missile defense began during the second Lebanon war. “A friend asked me if I could so something to stop the Katushya rocket attacks on the north. I said that I felt that it was possible, not complicated. I designed a system within one week and patented it.”
Raviv feels that the laser-based solution for rocket interception is not suited to the range of threats that Israel faces. In his view, just as the Palestinians and Hizbullah are firing rockets from the Gaza Strip and Southern Lebanon, the Eastern border with the Palestinian Authority could also erupt. To provide protection for the entire population, he thinks that a large number of laser interception systems would be needed, against his own solution which is based on eight batteries deployed across Israel.
Raviv’s Kassam interception missile is confidential, but missile and systems engineers at IAI who have seen the plans have praised the concept behind them. Raviv was invited to a meeting with the IAI management, at which he expounded at length on his program, following which the management welcomed it enthusiastically. This endorsement may also be due to the blow that IAI took when the Ministry of Defense preferred Rafael’s medium range missile and Katyusha rocket defense development program - the David’s Sling Project - over its own. Without much fuss, it was decided that IAI’s Malam missile factory, which manufactures the Arrow, would be the lead contractor for Raviv’s project. The plan was presented to the Ministry of Defense, following which, Raviv says, “pandemonium broke loose.”
What are the chances that your plan will be accepted?
“The defense establishment will have to study the proposal’s economic side, operational capabilities, and technical aspects to see whether it is compatible with its way of thinking. I think that the “Hotzetz” also solves the problem from the point of view of cost-benefit, but the Ministry of Defense directorate of defense R&D has a problem: It chose two projects, while my idea, which calls for one interception that will solve the problem of Kassams, missiles and Katyushas with ranges from 5-1,500 kilometers, has disrupted their plans.”
Putting the train back on track
Why is this a problem?
“Because the missile that they chose to develop at Rafael costs $400,000 while the one I’m offering costs $80,000. That’s a substantial difference.”
Can you prove that your figures are correct?
“They are correct to the same extent that Rafael’s figures are correct. There’s an industry that backs up these figures, it’s not just Dov Raviv.”
Why didn’t you propose this program when you developed the Arrow?
“I tried to solve the problem with short-range Katyushas and Kassam rockets. While I was designing the solution, I found that the same missile, which in my system was designed to intercept missiles with ranges of 5-40 kilometers, had unlimited capacity against missiles with ranges of more than 1,500 kilometers, something that no missile has today. This was the main reason for patenting the system. If I had a received a specification for the development of such a missile, I would have laughed in disbelief. It happened by accident.”
Could you tell us how it happened?
“Many people would like to know what I did, and that’s why I’ve patented it. IAI knows, and if Israel buys the solution it could become the owner of this asset. If not, some other country will get it instead.”
Is that a threat?
“I have to look out for myself and I don’t intend to become a martyr. There are no free meals here. Obviously Israel will get priority, if it decides to adopt the solution.”
It looks like the train has already left the station, and the Ministry of Defense has already approved other plans.
“Rubbish. They’ve spent $5 million on a $600 million project. If the train has left the station and is on the wrong track, it needs to be brought back. This is not a tender for the construction of some community center, this is the security of the country.”
The war would have been over in a week
The US is already involved and has provided funding for the David’s Sling Program
“Where’s the connection? Rafael’s program was selected before the Lebanon war, and the problem that needs addressing today is different from what it was when the tender was announced. There’s no shame in abandoning the first solution if an external party comes along with a better and cheaper one.
“I believe that if the “Hotetz” had been available in the summer, the whole story with of the Katyushas would have been a joke. People could have watched the “Hotzetz” rockets blowing up Katushyas from their rooftops, and the war would have been over within a week. Hizbullah would have realized that their attempts to fire rockets at settlements in the north were futile.”
Published by Globes [online], Israel business news - www.globes.co.il - on January 11, 2007
© Copyright of Globes Publisher Itonut (1983) Ltd. 2006