J-10
05-05-2004, 10:17 AM
BEIJING, April 30 -- 【The "Peaceful Rise" notion indicates China has chosen an unprecedented development road different from one ever walked by other countries that rose in the last few centuries. It is interesting when one really assesses the possibility.But it is impossible if one chooses not to think.】
"Peaceful rise" is now very much an idea China wants to share with the rest of the world. This was evident in the just ended annual Bo'ao Asia forum held in China's southernmost province of Hainan. Foreign state leaders, government officials, economic celebrities and researchers attended the forum heard President Hu Jintao in his key-note speech discussing the opportunities China's development means to Asia and the world at large Round-table discussions were arranged at Bo'ao under this theme.
The idea is that the world, including other major counties, can live side by side with a rising giant as a peaceful partner to do business with, not a big bully for others to contain or fear for. They can share China's development dividends.
This is highly significant at a time when "the China Threat" theory can still be heard quite often. That's why when Chinese scholars first raised the scenario a year ago, Chinese leaders echoed it at domestic and international conferences.
The message is clear - the country is determined to embrace "rejuvenation", but it doesn't necessarily mean inflicting conflicts with other countries.
Indeed an interesting point. A year ago, Britain's semi-official Foreign Policy Centre under the Foreign Office arranged interviews with Chinese scholars, economists and journalists both in Beijing and Shanghai about China's relations with other countries in the future. In my discussions with an official from the centre, I found myself bombarded with several dozen questions, all about how China may behavior in 10 to 20 years. This prompted me to think twice about the notion - as there are people who may be truly worried for genuine reasons and those who may just want to advocate "China Threat" for other motives.
There is no easy answer. Or to be more exact, no easy answer to the very question; but for "China Threat" advocates, no answer at all.
The "Peaceful Rise" advocates say it takes time for China to be a real big power. Even if everything goes as wished, by the middle of this century, China's may still be considered a mid-level developed nation, lagging behind the industrialized nations in per capita GDP. Secondly, China, after adopting the open policy 25 years ago, is now indeed more deeply involved in global issues and has joined or established working relationship with many international and regional organizations, some of which it used to keep a distance from. Engagement is the preferred policy today in China's diplomacy, even when it has reservations on some issues or existing rules.
Some "China Threat" advocates believe a rising power will inevitably run into conflicts with existing powers as its interests and influence expand, but by proposing "Peaceful Rise", China intends to send out a message that it has chosen to walk a different road other than the one ever followed by previous world powers in the last few centuries, i.e. not to challenge but observe existing international law and regulations, and seek a win-win result with the rest the world, its accession to the World Trade Organization being an example. Even on issues China has disputes with other countries, such as territorial disputes with Japan over the Diaoyu Islands and the sovereignty dispute with several Southeast Asian nations over South China Sea, it proposed to put aside and leave the issues for future generation leaders if current governments find it hard to solve.
In a word, it chose not to provoke conflicts. Only one thing may affect China's peaceful rise - the huge needs for energy resources. The low energy efficiency and huge demands have promoted Chinese energy companies to seek supplies from world markets. Only scientific advancements plus international cooperation in science and technology may help ease the trouble. On one hand, China must increase the efficiency in energy use in order to reduce the pressure and energy consumption. At the same time, technical cooperation is also necessary so that the energy market will remain stable. High-tech sanctions imposed on China for political reasons would not solve the problem, but would only make the issue more complicated. Although the problem will not be easily fade away in a foreseeable future, more and more business leaders from around the world seemed to have realized that it's the only way out.
But when "politics" meddles, "Peaceful Rise" becomes "mission impossible". For those who choose not to listen, there's really no answer to whether "peaceful rise" is possible. For some, the logic is that a stronger China is bound to be trouble and has to be contained. But why? "To make sure no one can challenge our dominance in the 21st century."
That reveals the secret. But it's no longer China's problem.
(Writer:Lin Shaowen)
"Peaceful rise" is now very much an idea China wants to share with the rest of the world. This was evident in the just ended annual Bo'ao Asia forum held in China's southernmost province of Hainan. Foreign state leaders, government officials, economic celebrities and researchers attended the forum heard President Hu Jintao in his key-note speech discussing the opportunities China's development means to Asia and the world at large Round-table discussions were arranged at Bo'ao under this theme.
The idea is that the world, including other major counties, can live side by side with a rising giant as a peaceful partner to do business with, not a big bully for others to contain or fear for. They can share China's development dividends.
This is highly significant at a time when "the China Threat" theory can still be heard quite often. That's why when Chinese scholars first raised the scenario a year ago, Chinese leaders echoed it at domestic and international conferences.
The message is clear - the country is determined to embrace "rejuvenation", but it doesn't necessarily mean inflicting conflicts with other countries.
Indeed an interesting point. A year ago, Britain's semi-official Foreign Policy Centre under the Foreign Office arranged interviews with Chinese scholars, economists and journalists both in Beijing and Shanghai about China's relations with other countries in the future. In my discussions with an official from the centre, I found myself bombarded with several dozen questions, all about how China may behavior in 10 to 20 years. This prompted me to think twice about the notion - as there are people who may be truly worried for genuine reasons and those who may just want to advocate "China Threat" for other motives.
There is no easy answer. Or to be more exact, no easy answer to the very question; but for "China Threat" advocates, no answer at all.
The "Peaceful Rise" advocates say it takes time for China to be a real big power. Even if everything goes as wished, by the middle of this century, China's may still be considered a mid-level developed nation, lagging behind the industrialized nations in per capita GDP. Secondly, China, after adopting the open policy 25 years ago, is now indeed more deeply involved in global issues and has joined or established working relationship with many international and regional organizations, some of which it used to keep a distance from. Engagement is the preferred policy today in China's diplomacy, even when it has reservations on some issues or existing rules.
Some "China Threat" advocates believe a rising power will inevitably run into conflicts with existing powers as its interests and influence expand, but by proposing "Peaceful Rise", China intends to send out a message that it has chosen to walk a different road other than the one ever followed by previous world powers in the last few centuries, i.e. not to challenge but observe existing international law and regulations, and seek a win-win result with the rest the world, its accession to the World Trade Organization being an example. Even on issues China has disputes with other countries, such as territorial disputes with Japan over the Diaoyu Islands and the sovereignty dispute with several Southeast Asian nations over South China Sea, it proposed to put aside and leave the issues for future generation leaders if current governments find it hard to solve.
In a word, it chose not to provoke conflicts. Only one thing may affect China's peaceful rise - the huge needs for energy resources. The low energy efficiency and huge demands have promoted Chinese energy companies to seek supplies from world markets. Only scientific advancements plus international cooperation in science and technology may help ease the trouble. On one hand, China must increase the efficiency in energy use in order to reduce the pressure and energy consumption. At the same time, technical cooperation is also necessary so that the energy market will remain stable. High-tech sanctions imposed on China for political reasons would not solve the problem, but would only make the issue more complicated. Although the problem will not be easily fade away in a foreseeable future, more and more business leaders from around the world seemed to have realized that it's the only way out.
But when "politics" meddles, "Peaceful Rise" becomes "mission impossible". For those who choose not to listen, there's really no answer to whether "peaceful rise" is possible. For some, the logic is that a stronger China is bound to be trouble and has to be contained. But why? "To make sure no one can challenge our dominance in the 21st century."
That reveals the secret. But it's no longer China's problem.
(Writer:Lin Shaowen)