S'13
05-08-2004, 11:31 PM
Analysis: Hizbullah in distress
By ARIEH O'SULLIVAN
OC Northern Command Maj.-Gen. Beni Ganz says that Hizbullah knows the price of escalating tensions in the North and is walking a fine line not to elicit a severe Israeli response.
What the general is not saying is that Hizbullah also knows the price of letting peace reign along the Lebanese-Israeli border. The Iranian-backed Shi'ite movement needs war with the Jews like oxygen.
The latest clash on Mount Dov that resulted in the death of St.-Sgt. Dennis Laminov is part of this effort.
But the future does not look bright for Hizbullah, and it is in distress. It's once gloating leader, Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, is running out of room for maneuver as its main raison d'etre flickers and its legitimacy to remain Lebanon's sole terrorist organization diminishes.
Nasrallah gave the green light for this week's escalation when he reportedly told followers that fighters on standby along the border with Israel "had the right" to respond to any Israeli violation of the border without first getting approval from Beirut.
Provocation did not tarry. Hizbullah fired its 62mm cannons directly at communities in Western Galilee under the guise of anti-aircraft fire. This was followed by an attempted infiltration and then Friday's fatal strike on IDF positions at Mount Dov.
The latest action could be linked to the current municipal elections in southern Lebanon and the Bekaa, where Hizbullah is seeking to win over Shi'ites at the expense of its rival Amal organization.
But electioneering aside, Nasrallah faces a humbling prospect of not being able to win the release of terrorist Samir Kuntar, as he promised in the prisoner exchange deal hammered out through the Germans four months ago. Israel agreed to release Kuntar, who killed four Israelis in a 1979 raid on Nahariya, only in return for solid information on missing aviator Lt.-Col. Ron Arad.
The deal had an open three-month deadline and that passed last week with a rush of reports in Lebanon that a release was eminent. It did not happen. After having staked his reputation on the deal, Nasrallah likely wanted to remind Israel that there is always a military option. He knows Israel is aware of his vast arsenal of some 11,000 rockets aimed at it.
"Hizbullah is trying to strike against Israel, because that is its raison d'etre," says Ganz. "Escalation up here will harm the whole region, particularly the states north of the border. Escalation would not be comfortable for Israel, but for Syria and Lebanon it would be catastrophic."
It was no blunt warning that Israel would not stand by watching Hizbullah attempting to rewrite the rules. But there is a rising number of Lebanese who are questioning Hizbullah's necessity. Newspaper editorials are saying there are other more important matters than the Shaba farms, like the economy, poverty.
Every attack is like a nail in their coffin, and the IDF holds the hammer.
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=JPost/JPArticle/ShowFull&cid=1083998353672&p=1078027574121
By ARIEH O'SULLIVAN
OC Northern Command Maj.-Gen. Beni Ganz says that Hizbullah knows the price of escalating tensions in the North and is walking a fine line not to elicit a severe Israeli response.
What the general is not saying is that Hizbullah also knows the price of letting peace reign along the Lebanese-Israeli border. The Iranian-backed Shi'ite movement needs war with the Jews like oxygen.
The latest clash on Mount Dov that resulted in the death of St.-Sgt. Dennis Laminov is part of this effort.
But the future does not look bright for Hizbullah, and it is in distress. It's once gloating leader, Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, is running out of room for maneuver as its main raison d'etre flickers and its legitimacy to remain Lebanon's sole terrorist organization diminishes.
Nasrallah gave the green light for this week's escalation when he reportedly told followers that fighters on standby along the border with Israel "had the right" to respond to any Israeli violation of the border without first getting approval from Beirut.
Provocation did not tarry. Hizbullah fired its 62mm cannons directly at communities in Western Galilee under the guise of anti-aircraft fire. This was followed by an attempted infiltration and then Friday's fatal strike on IDF positions at Mount Dov.
The latest action could be linked to the current municipal elections in southern Lebanon and the Bekaa, where Hizbullah is seeking to win over Shi'ites at the expense of its rival Amal organization.
But electioneering aside, Nasrallah faces a humbling prospect of not being able to win the release of terrorist Samir Kuntar, as he promised in the prisoner exchange deal hammered out through the Germans four months ago. Israel agreed to release Kuntar, who killed four Israelis in a 1979 raid on Nahariya, only in return for solid information on missing aviator Lt.-Col. Ron Arad.
The deal had an open three-month deadline and that passed last week with a rush of reports in Lebanon that a release was eminent. It did not happen. After having staked his reputation on the deal, Nasrallah likely wanted to remind Israel that there is always a military option. He knows Israel is aware of his vast arsenal of some 11,000 rockets aimed at it.
"Hizbullah is trying to strike against Israel, because that is its raison d'etre," says Ganz. "Escalation up here will harm the whole region, particularly the states north of the border. Escalation would not be comfortable for Israel, but for Syria and Lebanon it would be catastrophic."
It was no blunt warning that Israel would not stand by watching Hizbullah attempting to rewrite the rules. But there is a rising number of Lebanese who are questioning Hizbullah's necessity. Newspaper editorials are saying there are other more important matters than the Shaba farms, like the economy, poverty.
Every attack is like a nail in their coffin, and the IDF holds the hammer.
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=JPost/JPArticle/ShowFull&cid=1083998353672&p=1078027574121