Coming Economic crisis in the US.

[Sevryn]

The US Dollar has devalued over 30% since 2000, this year alone it plunged to new depths devaluating 10% since the beginning of 2007 and is on the verge of the Abyss. US dollar today buys less oil, commodities, gold and other precious metals, and is devaluating rapidly against agricultural products (Bread and Butter).

Dow Jones reached new highs recently breaking through the 14,000 cealing but because of the currency crisis and the dollar decline the Dow Jones is worth less now then it was before the dot.com bubble crash.

The current debt when taken into account exceeds $50 Trillion, the trade deficit and the decline of the $ has spooked the world markets so much so that China and other nations that have dollar reserves started diversyfing their assets away from dollars to Euros. Capital Flight away from the dollar to the Euro will have underlaying effects to the economy, we will see further dollar decline as well as possible dollar collapse due to the credit crisis that is drawing closer.

The credit worthyness of the United States is in question, and because of that the creditors to the largest in debt nation in the world are running away from the dollar in fear of having their foreign exchange dollar reserves completely wiped out.


US Dollar : More Problems Equals More Losses


Tuesday, 31 July 2007 21:27:57 GMT

Written by Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist

The markets are selling off once again as the troubles in the sub-prime sector continue to grow. Yesterday, everyone ignored news that American Home Mortgage (which commands 2.5 percent of the mortgage market) had to delay its dividend but today, the double blow of major losses at Sowood Capital and C-BASS was too much for them to handle. The Dow went from being up 135 points in the early US trading session to down 146 points at the market close. This was a swing of 281 points on an intraday basis. Unsurprisingly, bond yields and carry trades have also sold off while the VIX index resumed its rise, indicating the return of risk aversion. Economic data is also beginning to deteriorate. Aside from consumer confidence, every piece of US economic data released today was weaker than expected. On a growth front, personal income was unchanged in the month of June while spending slowed. In terms of inflation, the market was looking for the monthly core PCE deflator to increase, but instead, it remained unchanged. House prices and construction spending deteriorated as well but the big surprise today was the sharp decline in the Chicago PMI index and the jump in consumer confidence. Despite continued weakness in the US dollar, regionally, growth in the manufacturing sector is beginning to slow. With both the Philly Fed and Chicago PMI index dropping significantly, tomorrow’s national manufacturing index (ISM) will likely follow suit. Do not be too discouraged however as things may actually get better at the end of the week. According to the “Jobs Plentiful less Hard to Get” category in the consumer confidence report and the employment component of the Chicago PMI, non-farm payrolls due out Friday could actually be firm since both increased sharply. Whether or not this will overshadow any further losses in the subprime sector remains to be seen. Contrary to what some people may think, the Fed IS watching the stock market. President Poole hinted today that the central bank is watching the markets closely and will act “in due time if and when evidence accumulates that action is appropriate.” That would involve deterioration in both inflation and employment, which makes keeping an eye on NFPs even more important.

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/daily_fundamentals/US_Dollar___More_Problems_1185917304006.html

[Sevryn]

US STOCKS-Credit worries return, driving Wall St lower.
http://www.*******.com/article/marketsNews/idINN3125178420070731?rpc=44

Fed will act on market slide if warranted: Poole
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/070731/usa_fed_poole.html?.v=3

Wall Street skids on subprime anxiety
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070801/ap_on_bi_st_ma_re/wall_street;_ylt=AsMmQ3wtoY3oIAZVjZvxGMiyBhIF

Consumer spending cools in June
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070801/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/economy;_ylt=AnxcpA8Lu6xYoLDN9WQEaHLv5rEF

Shaky time for Bush economic aides
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070731/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/bush_s_economic_high_wire;_ylt=AgizZThGBsdxvxnphNtlDl3v5rEF

Euro hits new dollar record on jitters over US economy
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20070724/bs_afp/forexeurope;_ylt=AgfB90o1hRO2UV5i1jZzAq7v5rEF


The innitial correction will be hyped up by Large Institutions so that they can get the small and medium sized investor involved so that they can exit the market. At the end of 3rd quarter and beginning of 4th we will see a very large correction in the Market, get out now Economy was driven by debt and the money that people did not have was spent on consumption now we have credit lenders going out of business left and right.

Diversify assets from weak dollar to Euro, commodities and precious metals.

Run for the hills the credit bubble will pop.

[ronnieraygun]

Thanks for the post.

-This is aimed toward the smaller investor and the contents are widely available in a number of newsletters. I do not argue against their conclusions at all. However, bear in mind the pessimists who have rightly assumed their place since 01-02 have since been proven wrong, for what it's worth.

-If you have any sort of large loan in the US, you should gird yourself for some nasty interest rates in the upcoming years.

That being said, your title is somewhat misleading.

[Sevryn]

The Implode-O-Meter
http://ml-implode.com/

This is a very good website, has a news ticker that tracts news from various sites such as Bloomberg and and other Financials. I use it mainly because it's easier instead of going directly to Rauters, MSNBC, CNN, Bloomberg.


-If you have any sort of large loan in the US, you should gird yourself for some nasty interest rates in the upcoming years.

I am out bro, the only thing I have that is based in US is a house that has been paid for. One of my reletives lives there now, I come to US from time to time to visit but I don't live there permanently.

[Mr Gently Benevolent]

I don’t to sound like a vulture but I really could do with a property slump in the US in the next 5 years as I am really keen buy a plot of ground or derilect in western NJ.

[2Sheds_Jackson]

Just keep wishing on that star, and with a little bit of magic, all your dreams can come true. :lol:

Meanwhile, I'm off to pay my assistant go take my 3rd car to the pet mall to buy another bejeweled codpiece for my cat's personal trainer.

[shocker1]

"They" have been predicting gloom for nearly 10 years now. At some point if you say something long enough and loud enough and if it drives stocks, rates and values it will fulfill itself. Regardless of the economy you will need your car fixed even more so when you can not afford a new one. Bring it on!

I also heard nonsense about how 8% rates are going to kill the housing market. I bought my first home at 8.5% in 1997. Times were good for the middle class then too.

[Sevryn]

The Credit crisis will hit US and the world economy pretty bad, the foreigners who have large amount of $ based assets have been spooked and right now they are scared because they lost so much in their $ value. China is concearned because they had over a Trillion worth of $ and now because of the shift in value they lost over 300 billion worth of dollars.

MOst countries who had large $ based assets started walking away from them quietly in order to avoid the panic. Because Foreign Banks and other countries interest of the value and future of the Euro you are seeing right now capital flight to Europe primairly.

Bush and his chief economis Paulson can say what they want "We want a strong dollar" dosent mean **** now, Paulson went to China and pleaded with them to stop buying Euros and selling $ but China has been spooked along with everybody else they're worried about the depreciation in value of the $.

[nahimov]

Falling $ is the best thing that happened to US. With falling $ US actually has to pay back less of its debt, able to export more products, makes internal market stronger, creates new jobs and so on and so forth.

[Hollis]

Doom and gloom. It was around the Late 80's in one year alone the dollar drop something like 40% against European currency. Guess what the US is still here.


The DOW hit highs and feel... doom was predicted, the US is still here.


Maybe if some of you took at least Econ 101 and maybe other classes these "chicken little" dooms messages would not get you running.

Every election year, DOOM economics come out.

[Sevryn]

Doom and gloom. It was around the Late 80's in one year alone the dollar drop something like 40% against European currency. Guess what the US is still here.

The EURO did not exist in the 80's




The DOW hit highs and feel... doom was predicted, the US is still here.


We have had crashes before, but then we were not in this kid of debt that we are now.



Maybe if some of you took at least Econ 101 and maybe other classes these "chicken little" dooms messages would not get you running.

Every election year, DOOM economics come out.


I trade currencies for a living, what's going on right now is not a scare tactic. Our GDP economic growth was propped up by going further into debt and spending money that we did not have on consumption.

Over 100 major companies croaked over the past year, this is going to accelerate the small correction that we have had in the market so far i.e the drop of DOW Jones from by over 1,200 points will be followed by a large correction by the end of this year.

There's a reason for this, when you have companies and individuals that borrow money to stay aflot is the first sign of a major economic crisis, you will see the further loss of value of the Dollar and a major contraction in the GDP.

Also the loss of vale of the dollar will be crutial because with that will come hyperinflation. Everyhting will skyrocket, I would suggest to people to start saving up some food and petro just in case.

What we want is a slow and gradual decline a term coined "Soft Landing" and avoid "Hard Landing"

[nahimov]

Interesting, and could you tell me oh wise economist, since great depression when was the last time people in US had to "stockpile" anything to survive an economic depression? I think you are mixing countries up. Maybe you wanted to post this for Zimbabwe message board?

[Sevryn]

Interesting, and could you tell me oh wise economist, since great depression when was the last time people in US had to "stockpile" anything to survive an economic depression? I think you are mixing countries up. Maybe you wanted to post this for Zimbabwe message board?


You can believe whatever you like, if you want to ignore the 30% devaluation of $, the credit crisis, capital flight, and the fiscal irresponsibility of the government, individuals and private firms who over extended themselves in hedge funds be my guest.

As for me I am not taking any chances. The last thing I wanna do is hold a handfull of deppreciating dollars.

[AZRON]

When I see 10% unemployment and 14% home loans I will know hard times are here. We were close to that in the Carter era and the beginning of the Reagan era. Or stagflation no growth with rising inflation.
The lower $ makes us more competitive in the world market and factories and mines are cranking up again.
As to the housing downturn , bubbles do burst , what's new ? I just don't want a bailout of the mortgage companies or homeowners by congress.
No redeux bailouts let the markets sort it out. One concern I have is an internal Ethanol Cartel driving food prices sky high.

The only extreme danger I see is from a string of terrorists incidents in the U.S.

[2Sheds_Jackson]

Also the loss of vale of the dollar will be crutial because with that will come hyperinflation. Everyhting will skyrocket, I would suggest to people to start saving up some food and petro just in case.


Yeah I'll get right on that.

[annihilation]

The Credit crisis will hit US and the world economy pretty bad, the foreigners who have large amount of $ based assets have been spooked and right now they are scared because they lost so much in their $ value. China is concearned because they had over a Trillion worth of $ and now because of the shift in value they lost over 300 billion worth of dollars.

.

China never lost 300 billion, you would assume that the dollar devalued against the chinese currency but that is not possible since the chinese currency is pegged to the US dollar at a set rate (with minor flux). So as the US dollar devalued so did the chinese at the same rate, so they never lost ****. In fact it made it better for them as their products are even cheaper in european markets and other foreign markets where the US dollar has taken a hit.

[Sevryn]

China never lost 300 billion, you would assume that the dollar devalued against the chinese currency but that is not possible since the chinese currency is pegged to the US dollar at a set rate (with minor flux). So as the US dollar devalued so did the chinese at the same rate, so they never lost ****. In fact it made it better for them as their products are even cheaper in european markets and other foreign markets where the US dollar has taken a hit.

Wrong that's not how the currency system works.

They had over a 1 trillion in dollars in trade surplus, but because of the depreciation of $ by 30% their dollars are not worth as much as they were loosing $300 billion due to depreciation. And because of this they are afraid of further loss of value of the dollar, so what they are doing to counter this is they are taking their $ and exchanging them for the EURO.

Euro will continue to appreciate further, and the dollar will continue to drop. $$$ lost value since January 2007 it lost approximately 10%, it will plunge and lose more of it's value because the FED is debasing the value of the dollar and pumping liquidity into the market in order to avert a catastrophy.

Foreign Countries know that the Fed is flooding the market with more dollars, and because of this Countries like China, Opec countries and other countries that have large $ holdings are diversifing their holdings from the depreciating Dollar.

Right now this is not about averting a recession, this is about trying to avert a major collapse of the dollar. Every country in the world has $$$ holdings and they know it's depreciating, they also know that they can't litterly pull out and dump the $ on the open market because that would cause a major panic. The reason this is done slowly is to avert a 90 degree plunge, and make it a soft landing of the US Economy.

[ronnieraygun]

I just don't want a bailout of the mortgage companies or homeowners by congress.
One concern I have is an internal Ethanol Cartel driving food prices sky high.

/this

See 2Sheds comment also. There will be consequences from the coming credit crunch. We don't know what they will bring, but they will be more severe and institutional and not merely affecting some consumers for whom living within one's means is a revolutionary concept.

[SBL]

http://i73.photobucket.com/albums/i228/Captainbadd/alfred_e_neuman.jpg

[Happy]

Wrong that's not how the currency system works.

They had over a 1 trillion in dollars in trade surplus, but because of the depreciation of $ by 30% their dollars are not worth as much as they were loosing $300 billion due to depreciation. And because of this they are afraid of further loss of value of the dollar, so what they are doing to counter this is they are taking their $ and exchanging them for the EURO.

Euro will continue to appreciate further, and the dollar will continue to drop. $$$ lost value since January 2007 it lost approximately 10%, it will plunge and lose more of it's value because the FED is debasing the value of the dollar and pumping liquidity into the market in order to avert a catastrophy.

Foreign Countries know that the Fed is flooding the market with more dollars, and because of this Countries like China, Opec countries and other countries that have large $ holdings are diversifing their holdings from the depreciating Dollar.

Right now this is not about averting a recession, this is about trying to avert a major collapse of the dollar. Every country in the world has $$$ holdings and they know it's depreciating, they also know that they can't litterly pull out and dump the $ on the open market because that would cause a major panic. The reason this is done slowly is to avert a 90 degree plunge, and make it a soft landing of the US Economy.

gee, I guess if this is true, then china should just use all their dollars, and reinvest it back into the USA and buy up everything using those worthless dollars. I know if I was facing a $300 billion dollars loss, I would just go out and buy Exxonmobil, Boeing, and Microsoft, instead of taking it in the shorts trading for euros. Or, even better, buy up all the copper, nickel, iron, mining companies, chemical companies, oil refineries, timber companies, and get this, land, while it is cheap as dirt.

[Durandal]

What is going to happen when the U.S. stops buying 40% of the world's produced goods?

[2Sheds_Jackson]

It's all gravy for currency traders. They really don't care which way the wind blows, as long as it's blowing. The last thing they want is stability, so doom and gloom is great, and the more doomier and gloomier, the better. For them, selling "safe haven" is a lot like standing out on the street corner in front of a Chick-fil-A in a chicken suit.

[Hollis]

The EURO did not exist in the 80's




Ok you also lack reading skills, you quote me, I said, "40% against European currency" NOT EUROS. Pounds and DMs.

Well sunshine, when you take Econ 101, take reading 101 too!!

[StukaJr]

Ammunition = Currency for the New Millennium.

Stock up now!

[Hollis]

It's all gravy for currency traders. They really don't care which way the wind blows, as long as it's blowing. The last thing they want is stability, so doom and gloom is great, and the more doomier and gloomier, the better. For them, selling "safe haven" is a lot like standing out on the street corner in front of a Chick-fil-A in a chicken suit.


Percisely. I agree they are not into the economy, they are more like gamblers looking for the fast buck.

[Abolith]

Ammunition = Currency for the New Millennium.

Stock up now!

got 5000 rnds of 30 cal on the way :)

[Durandal]

Ammunition = Currency for the New Millennium.

Stock up now!

Then I'm a millionaire!

Woot!

I need to get a Chinese butler proficient in Kung-fu.

I wonder if he'll take .22lr or .32 ACP...

[newb]

oh please ...

lower USD means cheaper (better) US exports and cheaper way to repay foreign debt

also, when counting trade imbalance you're forgetting the insane amounts of US equities owned by foreigners ...

[Flagg]

What is going to happen when the U.S. stops buying 40% of the world's produced goods?

Stop....you'll only confuse them.

[helomech]

http://www.vgcore.com/showimage.php?id_cover=706

[2Sheds_Jackson]

Then I'm a millionaire!

Woot!

I need to get a Chinese butler proficient in Kung-fu.

I wonder if he'll take .22lr or .32 ACP...

I dunno - Cato from the old Pink Panther movies seemed to do just fine with an occasional beating.

[sinophile]

The US Dollar has devalued over 30% since 2000, this year alone it plunged to new depths devaluating 10% since the beginning of 2007 and is on the verge of the Abyss.

I'm bullish on the dollar. Credit markets are tightening in the US, and some big sources of hyper-liquidity are drying up. Government spending will slow after the 2008 election, barring some catastrophe. I'm forecasting a recession from 2009 - 2016 - probably global.

Net of labor savings, I estimate a Chinese business has to pay approximately $3.25 for the same goods a US business can buy in China for $1. That rate is even worse for many imported goods. Because of this, many Chinese businesses operate on profit margins much lower than western businesses. They sustain it via debt that from what I've heard and read is simply not secured (collateralized) rationally. Their foreign reserves and artificially sustained export market holds off a correction.

By contrast our credit markets are reverting to a rational mean.

Some reading if you need a pick-me-up:
http://www.economist.com/markets/indicators/displaystory.cfm?story_id=8649005
http://www.amazon.com/Running-Money-Honchos-Monster-Markets/dp/B000BHA3PO/ref=pd_ys_iyr102/102-6690476-2850503

[Sevryn]

The Big Mac index

Feb 1st 2007
From Economist.com


This is from Feb 2007, this is when everyone including the Economis was saying that the worst was behind us but look at whats happeneing right now.

Also it's important to understand that the $ once it breaches the next support level which it will is because of capital flight. Yes USA consumers are buying but the problem here is to understand that were buying things of value with a depreciating dollar and were not paying down our debt. Because of this you are seeing the purchasing power of the dollar drop, the movement in currencies is 95% Banks and 5% individual investors, this is not a scheme or speculation this is Capital Flight, you're seeing Foreign Banks from countries dumping Dollar based Assets.


oh please ...

lower USD means cheaper (better) US exports and cheaper way to repay foreign debt

What EXPORTS? We have a trade imbalance we lost our manufacturing base, the only thing we are creating is debt and inflation.

Also how do you plan to repay what we owe to foreigners if our currency becomes toilet paper?



also, when counting trade imbalance you're forgetting the insane amounts of US equities owned by foreigners ...

US Dollar based Assets are being dumped, this is the reason $ has depreciated against other currencies, precious metals, oil and other commodities.


This is my opinion is irrational exhuberace, why is everyone getting excited? We have massive debt with a depreciating currency, at the same time Foreign Banks are getting rid of their $ based currency reserves.

[vryhpyammoadded]

I agree with the impending recession assessment but as to the degree of its possible severity I’m still analyzing. Personally I thought it was going to happen late last year but the economy somehow kept chugging along. Anyway, no worry here, I’m patient and have set myself up to feast during a famine.

Still, I wonder what’s going to happen if the Democrat party sweeps the hill and executive. Traditionally they’ve always been a tax/spend party and I’ve heard some of the costly ideas Hillary has tossed about to repair social security, provide medical care etc… Money will be tight and they will have to increase taxes to pay the entitlements to appease there constituents. Even the traditional gutting of the military budget won't dent this one. There are so many other factors and so little room to wiggle.

Interesting times ahead.

[Sevryn]

I agree with the impending recession assessment but as to the degree of its possible severity I’m still analyzing. Personally I thought it was going to happen late last year but the economy somehow kept chugging along. Anyway, no worry here, I’m patient and have set myself up to feast during a famine.

This will be a very very big hit to the Economy. Debt and Credit/liquidity crisis is coming, our GDP growth was financed by borrowed money and because of that were living on borrowed time.

Right now Ben Bernake and the Fed is debasing our currency because liquidity is drying up, Americans bought close to 20 million homes in the past few years in a BOOM market with credit. Vast majority of them to people who could not afford it in the first place, so what they did was Borrowed and then when they bought it they borrowed more money based on the equity home loans scheme.

To give some of you an idea, let's say 50% of the 20 mil go default, and the average price is $400k, 10mil X 400k = 4 trillion loss to the economy, it might be more or less who knows.



Still, I wonder what’s going to happen if the Democrat party sweeps the hill and executive. Traditionally they’ve always been a tax/spend party and I’ve heard some of the costly ideas Hillary has tossed about to repair social security, provide medical care etc… Money will be tight and they will have to increase taxes to pay the entitlements to appease there constituents. Even the traditional gutting of the military budget won't dent this one. There are so many other factors and so little room to wiggle.

Interesting times ahead.


I dunno I don't follow US politics as much as I do it's economy, but in my opinion the goose is pretty much cooked so in the end it probably wont matter all that much. This to me is like jumping off a cliff, breaking leg, ribs and 150 other bones and you have a choice between 2 hospitals Hillary Memorial and RudyMCthompson Aid Center.

[foxtrot023]

US STOCKS-Credit worries return, driving Wall St lower.
http://www.*******.com/article/marketsNews/idINN3125178420070731?rpc=44

Fed will act on market slide if warranted: Poole
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/070731/usa_fed_poole.html?.v=3

Wall Street skids on subprime anxiety
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070801/ap_on_bi_st_ma_re/wall_street;_ylt=AsMmQ3wtoY3oIAZVjZvxGMiyBhIF

Consumer spending cools in June
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070801/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/economy;_ylt=AnxcpA8Lu6xYoLDN9WQEaHLv5rEF

Shaky time for Bush economic aides
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070731/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/bush_s_economic_high_wire;_ylt=AgizZThGBsdxvxnphNtlDl3v5rEF

Euro hits new dollar record on jitters over US economy
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20070724/bs_afp/forexeurope;_ylt=AgfB90o1hRO2UV5i1jZzAq7v5rEF


The innitial correction will be hyped up by Large Institutions so that they can get the small and medium sized investor involved so that they can exit the market. At the end of 3rd quarter and beginning of 4th we will see a very large correction in the Market, get out now Economy was driven by debt and the money that people did not have was spent on consumption now we have credit lenders going out of business left and right.

Diversify assets from weak dollar to Euro, commodities and precious metals.

Run for the hills the credit bubble will pop.

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

do you work in any stock market?

[seer]

I hope you are right Sevryn. I have been short this fricken market since may.

[Sevryn]

I hope you are right Sevryn. I have been short this fricken market since may.


Good for you smart move.

But be carefull you have to remember that nothing goes straight up and streight down. The innitial correction that we seen is not the bottom, but what you are seeing right now is constant up and down; this is because the Large Institutional Investors are trying to exit the market and in order to do that they have to HYPE it up.

Tomorrow on Friday the NoneFarm Payrolls are coming out, watch that number if it's bad or really bad short the $%#@ out of it.

This will play out over the next couple of months, but make no mistake about it we are in a Growth Recession right now and this is certainly not the end like the Cheerleaders in Wallstreet say but only the tip of the icebearg.

Good Luck.

[kimosabi]

US Housing Bubble Rollercoaster

http://www.youtube.com/watch/v/kUldGc06S3U

Based on the Graph below:

http://www.speculativebubble.com/images/homevalues1.gif

[Durandal]

Stop....you'll only confuse them.

Hehehehe I try...

"What's the worst that can happen?"

[foxtrot023]

US Housing Bubble Rollercoaster

http://www.youtube.com/watch/v/kUldGc06S3U

Based on the Graph below:



yeah, that graph is already late.

It is logical that there was a boom in everything since 2003. The Fed rates were at 1% fer crying out loud!

It is normal that with the rates going up housing was going to cool off. Matter of fact prices in housing are falling (I think it was -17% compared to last year) and will continue to do so.

The main concern here is inflation (and indirectly oil). If the Fed has to increease the rates, then we might see something bad happening, but for the moment the US economy is growing at a nice 3+%, unemployment is at 4.5% and consumption is robust. For the moment

[Sevryn]

The main concern here is inflation (and indirectly oil). If the Fed has to increease the rates, then we might see something bad happening, but for the moment the US economy is growing at a nice 3+%, unemployment is at 4.5% and consumption is robust. For the moment

The only problem I have with this statement is GDP growth and consumption, both of them are down this year mainly because we are seeing the early effects of the credit worries.

Also keep in mind the down revision of numbers, 3.2% in GDP means nothing when this number is revised downward to 0.6% GDP.


BTW Nonfarm Payrolls for July fell to 92k today, this is the 3rd weakest in over 2 years.

[foxtrot023]

The only problem I have with this statement is GDP growth and consumption, both of them are down this year mainly because we are seeing the early effects of the credit worries.

Also keep in mind the down revision of numbers, 3.2% in GDP means nothing when this number is revised downward to 0.6% GDP.


BTW Nonfarm Payrolls for July fell to 92k today, this is the 3rd weakest in over 2 years.

yes, and the unemployment level is 4.6%, still pretty low. So far GDP is on track to be 3+%. If rates remain the same, we will see a soft landing by 2008, if the rates increase then we can see depression.

[Sevryn]

So far GDP is on track to be 3+%. If rates remain the same, we will see a soft landing by 2008, if the rates increase then we can see depression.

GDP is not on track to be 3%, USD economic number so far this year have been worrying. We are growing right now at less the 1% of the GDP, .06% was the last economic number, this is what economists call growth Recession. Revision of numbers happeneds all the time, no serious forcaster would go against the current market trend because of 1 GDP number.


Ohh by the way because of the Non-farm payrolls the Dollar is teetering at the edge of the cliff the Euro gained 100pips since the number came out. In the morning 1 Euro = 1.3700, now 1 Euro = 1.3808. If the Euro breaks the previous highs made 1.3850 around that area the dollar will depreciate drastically.


Dollar Falls on NFP's, to Continue Slide on Coming Fed Meeting
Friday, 03 August 2007 18:39:32 GMT

Written by David Rodriguez, Currency Analyst
<DIV class=contentpaneopen><DIV id=article>The US dollar tumbled for yet another trading day, as bearish Non Farm Payrolls data sent the greenback significantly lower against major trading counterparts. Officials reported that the domestic economy added a mere 92,000 jobs in the month of July—far below forecasts of a 127,000 gain through the period. The national unemployment rate subsequently jumped to 4.6 percent and left a pessimistic outlook for broader economic growth—leaving the dollar lower in its wake. A later tumble in the Dow Jones Industrial Average produced a small dollar bid, but later signs of recovery have left the trade-weighted Dollar Index at fresh two-week lows.

The Euro continued yesterday’s ascent, adding an impressive 90 points to buy $1.3785 through late

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/currency/eur_news/Dollar_Falls_on_NFP_s__to_1186166416960.html



Stocks slide amid credit, economic fears.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070803/ap_on_bi_st_ma_re/wall_street;_ylt=Apv1tuJRQuuFvtHdqQAA7ZOyBhIF

[foxtrot023]

GDP is not on track to be 3%, USD economic number so far this year have been worrying. We are growing right now at less the 1% of the GDP, .06% was the last economic number, this is what economists call growth Recession.


Ohh by the way because of the Non-farm payrolls the Dollar is teetering at the edge of the cliff the Euro gained 100pips since the number came out. In the morning 1 Euro = 1.3700, now 1 Euro = 1.3808. If the Euro breaks the previous highs made 1.3850 around that area the dollar will depreciate drastically.




Fed forecast is 2.25% to 2.5%, recently, because it was 2.5% to 3%
http://www.forbes.com/afxnewslimited/feeds/afx/2007/07/18/afx3926392.html

I trust more the Fed forecast than your opinion



Housing market woes are expected, and is already happening in the subprime sector. The question here is if the Fed will lower the rates or if oil and wages will threaten with inflation and cause the Fed to increase the rates, in which case, the economy will go into a depresion.

Read this-

http://sg.news.yahoo.com/afp/20070711/tbs-us-economy-bank-rate-f41e315.html

[Sevryn]

Fed forecast is 2.25% to 2.5%, recently, because it was 2.5% to 3%
http://www.forbes.com/afxnewslimited...fx3926392.html (http://www.forbes.com/afxnewslimited/feeds/afx/2007/07/18/afx3926392.html)

I trust more the Fed forecast than your opinion


That's you not me, I trade currencies and the last thing I would do is trust the FED because i know they are full of @#$%. :)

That 2nd quarter GDP growth will be revised downward below 1% in 3rd quarter. I know because they do this all the time, so let's not get excited by the FED plz those are the same people by the way that deregulated the Morgage lending industry and look how that ended up.

BTW the Market has a mind of it's own, I care what the Market thinks and what the Market does and not what the FED thinks it should DO.


Housing market woes are expected, and is already happening in the subprime sector. The question here is if the Fed will lower the rates or if oil and wages will threaten with inflation and cause the Fed to increase the rates, in which case, the economy will go into a depresion.


The Fed will probably lower the rates which will cause the Dollar to fall off a cliff, if they raised the rates that would save the dollar but would %$&^ up the economy even more then it is.

This is why I am still long on the Euro.

BTW what do you trade? Stocks, Currencies, Commodities, which markets are you active in?

[foxtrot023]

That's you not me, I trade currencies and the last thing I would do is trust the FED because i know they are full of @#$%. :)

That 2nd quarter GDP growth will be revised downward below 1% in 3rd quarter. I know because they do this all the time, so let's not get excited by the FED plz those are the same people by the way that deregulated the Morgage lending industry and look how that ended up.

BTW the Market has a mind of it's own, I care what the Market thinks and what the Market does and not what the FED thinks it should DO.



The Fed will probably lower the rates which will cause the Dollar to fall off a cliff, if they raised the rates that would save the dollar but would %$&^ up the economy even more then it is.

This is why I am still long on the Euro.

BTW what do you trade? Stocks, Currencies, Commodities, which markets are you active in?

Yeah the Fed can screw up, but I think the economy is still ressilient. Let me tell you, the stock market does not know what is going on. We have a week with triple digits falls and recoveries, very volatile (and with heavy volume!). I am recomending oil, gold, uranium mines and alternative energy stocks, most in Canada.

I trade US and Canadian stock markets, I do see a lot of options and oil only in futures.

Look, my gut feeling is that the Fed will lower rates next year, and things should ease a bit as long as oil is stable and bellow $80 (call it the optimistic scenario), if oil/wages climbs and unemployment deepens then we are headed into trouble

[Sevryn]

Dow Jones declines -2.1%
13,181.91

Nasdaq declines -2.5%
2,511.25

We will see what happeneds on Monday. This is going to be interesting leading up to the end of 3rd quarter and beginning of the 4th.


Yeah the Fed can screw up, but I think the economy is still ressilient. Let me tell you, the stock market does not know what is going on. We have a week with triple digits falls and recoveries, very volatile (and with heavy volume!). I am recomending oil, gold, uranium mines and alternative energy stocks, most in Canada.

I agree with you mainly because the Cheerleading puppets employed by Wallstreet are completely ignoring Market Fundementals. This is Irrational exhuberace at it's worst.

BTW you are right oil, gold, uranium are a good buy because as the dollar falls the price of commodities will raise in value against the dollar.



Look, my gut feeling is that the Fed will lower rates next year, and things should ease a bit as long as oil is stable and bellow $80 (call it the optimistic scenario), if oil/wages climbs and unemployment deepens then we are headed into trouble

If Fed lowers interest rates then the dollar will fall off a cliff even further if this happeneds Gold and Oil and other commodities will go up to the Stratosphere. Bread and butter agricultural products will raise and inflation will go up, consumption will fall.

This scenario really depends on how bad the subprime slime really is, I believe we only hit the tip of the iceberg. And if this spills to the other sectors of the economy we will be facing a slow and long deteriorating death of US Economy.

Dollar will continue to fall reguardless, Foreign Central Banks started to diversify their assets away from our currency and if the FED lowers interest rates the Dollar will take a hit.

I could talk about this scenario or that scenario for hours, as for a timeline I don't know therefore I can't give an exact time frame.

Anyway good luck to you sir.

[2Sheds_Jackson]

What EXPORTS?

The yellow ones.

http://media.militaryphotos.net/photos/albums/2shedsjackson/ahy.jpg

http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/eco_exp-economy-exports/AFR

Add to the picture, the fact that US buyers account for 10% of Germany's pink slice, a huge 22% of both China's and Japan's slices, and we're France's 6th largest buyer. So any crisis in the US will be a crisis everywhere with indoor plumbing. Think of it as just another service we provide.

[Durandal]

Add to the picture, the fact that US buyers account for 10% of Germany's pink slice, a huge 22% of both China's and Japan's slices, and we're France's 6th largest buyer. So any crisis in the US will be a crisis everywhere with indoor plumbing. Think of it as just another service we provide.

Shhhh honey you'll scare the children.

[Sevryn]

Add to the picture, the fact that US buyers account for 10% of Germany's pink slice, a huge 22% of both China's and Japan's slices, and we're France's 6th largest buyer. So any crisis in the US will be a crisis everywhere with indoor plumbing. Think of it as just another service we provide.

If a crises does happened then it will hit them in the SHORT TERM(WE WONT BE ABLE TO PAY THEM BACK), you gotta understand were consuming their products with the money that we borrow from THEM. This is not our money, the money that we spend on consumption that has been fueling our economy is coming from abroad.

This is coming to an abrupt end, China, Japan, South Korea, EU and Opec countries will not sacrafice their Economies for us and they wont continue to subsadise our debt just so that we can consume their goods with their own money that we get from them.

One of the ways to #$@% up an economy is to get rid of the manufacturing and industral base, go into debt that can't be paid back, borrow more money and invest it in a bubbling housing Market. Also starting wars and going on an adventure with someone elses credit will piss the people who borrowed us money even more.

Bubbles Bubbles all I see is Bubbles. rofl

[Bia]

I'm not worried...

I am a single, semi attractive all American white girl, daughter of a USMC warrior.

I am... the master of all I survey.

[Flagg]

If a crises does happened then it will hit them in the SHORT TERM(WE WONT BE ABLE TO PAY THEM BACK), you gotta understand were consuming their products with the money that we borrow from THEM. This is not our money, the money that we spend on consumption that has been fueling our economy is coming from abroad.

This is coming to an abrupt end, China, Japan, South Korea, EU and Opec countries will not sacrafice their Economies for us and they wont continue to subsadise our debt just so that we can consume their goods with their own money that we get from them.

One of the ways to #$@% up an economy is to get rid of the manufacturing and industral base, go into debt that can't be paid back, borrow more money and invest it in a bubbling housing Market. Also starting wars and going on an adventure with someone elses credit will piss the people who borrowed us money even more.

Bubbles Bubbles all I see is Bubbles. rofl

You're a glass half-empty person, I can tell.....

Where you see doom....others smell opportunity...some of the most consistently successful entreprenuers in history have blossomed out of times/environments where most are screaming "fire!"

You need to remember one very important lesson, hopefully not the hard way.....that the market can remain irrational, much longer than you can ever hope to remain solvent.

And Bia will always be a hot commodity! :)

[Sevryn]

You're a glass half-empty person, I can tell.....


The glass is not half full, or half empty for me it's empty period. :)

[Sevryn]

It's a war zone out there, Jim Kramer the host of a Financial show flips out at Ben Bernake the chairman of the Federal Reserve.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2eaMj1DPI6U&mode=related&search=

Watch this video it's freking hilarious. :)

Here's some highlights:

SHOUTING:

"HE HAS NO IDEA HOW BAD IT IS OUT THERE. HE HAS NO IDEA. HE HAS NO IDEA. I'VE TALKED TO THE HEADS OF ALMOST EVERY SINGLE ONE OF THESE FIRMS IN THE LAST 72 HOURS AND HE HAS NO IDEA!!!"

"AND BILL POOLE HAS NO IDEA WHAT IT'S LIKE OUT THERE!!"

"THESE FIRMS ARE GOING TO GO OUT OF BUSINESS!!!!!"

"THIS IS A DIFFERENT KIND OF MARKET AND THE FED IS ASLEEP AND BILL POOLE IS A SHAME HE'S SHAMEFUL!!!!"

"WE HAVE ARMAGEDDON"


P.S
THis is only the beginning guys, don't get sucked into this market get out of stocks bonds and $ based assets. WHen this hits trillions worth of liquidity will be whipped out, so don't pay attention to the paid stooges who will go on National TV right before it hits and tell you to "This is a good time to buy".

I give credit to Jim for at least being honest.

[foxtrot023]

The situation is kind on a knife edge. It is a very narrow path the Fed has to walk to get it right, still can get it right, but it will be hard

[0rphie]

I give credit to Jim for at least being honest.

Jim and honest should not be in the same sentence. He is a clown, and should not be taken seriously.

[Sevryn]

Jim and honest should not be in the same sentence. He is a clown, and should not be taken seriously.

At least he's saying something and I give him credit for this because everyone else is completely ignoring the present situation.


The situation is kind on a knife edge. It is a very narrow path the Fed has to walk to get it right, still can get it right, but it will be hard

I agree, but the fact is that the Fed needs to wake up Ben Bernake looks like a deer in headlights the last time I saw him talking about the issue.

[Flagg]

At least he's saying something and I give him credit for this because everyone else is completely ignoring the present situation.

Lots of people say lots of things.......and Cramer has a lot to say about everything.......if you want quantity continue with Cramer and his ilk....if you want quality consider Jim Rogers and others willing to take a contrarian stance years ago.....in regards to Cramer even a broken clock is right twice a day

I agree, but the fact is that the Fed needs to wake up Ben Bernake looks like a deer in headlights the last time I saw him talking about the issue.

For someone who is sticking his neck out like Chicken Little maybe you should consider the fact that Bernake's seeming indecision or lack of decision is a carefully considered choice itself.

Action(+/- interest rates) isn't the only option in this case.

Inaction(doing nothing), CHOOSING to DO NOTHING, and maintain the interest rate status quo is also an option.......and probably the most likely course of 'action" in my amateur opinion.

Raise rates = kick housing while it's down

Lower rates = kick greenback while it's down

Do nothing = hope the market sorts itself out



One thing that I find seriously disappointing is what I perceive to be an attitude of worsening myopia....too much focus on the short-term.

[Sevryn]

Lots of people say lots of things.......and Cramer has a lot to say about everything.......if you want quantity continue with Cramer and his ilk....if you want quality consider Jim Rogers and others willing to take a contrarian stance years ago.....in regards to Cramer even a broken clock is right twice a day


The reason i gave props to Kramer was because he called out the FED for what they are and for what they did when they themselves created this mess in the first place.

I don't take financial advice from Kramer, but reguardless I am thankfull for having at least 1 person who has had the guts to go on the record.

Go watch MSNBC, Fox News and CNN and the rest of the so called news networks who still keep parroting the same old same old "BUY NOW, it's the Bottom this is a great time to get in". Those are mouthpieces for multinational corporations who are trying to suck you into the Hype, they need people to be sucked in order to dump their own shares.



Inaction(doing nothing), CHOOSING to DO NOTHING

The Fed already did that when they deregulated the mortgage lending industry, not only that but they were the ones who told people to take those teaser raters, after that debacle they raised interest rates.

And look where we are now.

[DaGreatRV]

I'm not that great at economics, but I always thought that foreign investers would keep propping up the $ because, well, nobody benefits from a bad US economy.
But I always knew a correction would come one day and the longer you keep blowing up that bubbel, the harder it will 'pop' :-(.

But, what could be done to save the US economy? Or is there nothing left to save? :oops:



BTW, I just sold some shares I bought in 2003 :D:D:D
(see graf below)

http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=32075&stc=1&d=1186483476

[Kilo]

http://www.dealbreaker.com/images/pdf/HaymanJuly07.pdf

[timetraveller]

i lost a small fortune ..that is ...


If there was a way i could reclaim the cash i lost i would ..

[pedro_rafael]

It's a war zone out there, Jim Kramer the host of a Financial show flips out at Ben Bernake the chairman of the Federal Reserve.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2eaMj1DPI6U&mode=related&search=

Watch this video it's freking hilarious. :)

Here's some highlights:

SHOUTING:

"HE HAS NO IDEA HOW BAD IT IS OUT THERE. HE HAS NO IDEA. HE HAS NO IDEA. I'VE TALKED TO THE HEADS OF ALMOST EVERY SINGLE ONE OF THESE FIRMS IN THE LAST 72 HOURS AND HE HAS NO IDEA!!!"

"AND BILL POOLE HAS NO IDEA WHAT IT'S LIKE OUT THERE!!"

"THESE FIRMS ARE GOING TO GO OUT OF BUSINESS!!!!!"

"THIS IS A DIFFERENT KIND OF MARKET AND THE FED IS ASLEEP AND BILL POOLE IS A SHAME HE'S SHAMEFUL!!!!"

"WE HAVE ARMAGEDDON"


P.S
THis is only the beginning guys, don't get sucked into this market get out of stocks bonds and $ based assets. WHen this hits trillions worth of liquidity will be whipped out, so don't pay attention to the paid stooges who will go on National TV right before it hits and tell you to "This is a good time to buy".

I give credit to Jim for at least being honest.




Jeeeez !!


I once shouted at a VP of JP MOrgan like that. My Boss loved it, but i'd ended up with stomach pains, cured in a bar. Another VP for Banque Geneva did not hear me kindly suggesting to reverse a trade and he lost USD2.5 Million. Probably lost his job in Italy, his wife surely divorced him and he may be back in the US trying to forget a small Peruvian tellin' him: DO NOT DO IT.

Anyway, the incoming correction in the US housing market is going to give way to the next door. Prepare for the landing and hang on to anything til the next airplane comes. Hopefully.

In the meantime, bosses will turn into minions, minions into street-bums and naive house-owners will be welcomed back in the rental market. Seven years of bad luck for those guys, i;m afraid.

Saludos,

[Horizon]

"What we will soon hear more about is the way that the pain of all this falls disproportionately on Blacks and Hispanics. These two groups already tend to be poorer than white people, which means they tend to suffer more from the slings and arrows that drop down to the bottom of the wealth pyramid. They die younger. They take fewer vacations. And they pay more for credit."

Found this article, very interesting, any L.A riots to come??

http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/subprime-crisis/2007/03/20/

[Typhooner]

A US economic crash would be almost too appropriate.

Not exactly a good thing - but entirely deserved.

[Gothjod]

A US economic crash would be almost too appropriate.

Not exactly a good thing - but entirely deserved.

uhhh What? (geico caveman voice)

[shocker1]

A US economic crash would be almost too appropriate.

Not exactly a good thing - but entirely deserved.
Well that would be very unfortunate for the millions of starving, helpless people that the American people give to everyday. It is ashame someone says these things, it is like shooting your neighbors barking dog. Then the next night your car is stolen out of the garage that was next to the neighbors dog pin.

[Kippari]

A US economic crash would be almost too appropriate.

Not exactly a good thing - but entirely deserved.

That was a bit harsh way to say it, but I think they got what they ordered. Unfortunately for us all. It's not just the U.S. that is going to be affected by the next depression.
I can't deny that I want to see the Americans squirm in their own pool of that deep murky feces, of about how great their country is, they've been flinging all around.p-)

GOD BLESS AMERICA AND NO PLACE ELSE!

[Typhooner]

Well that would be very unfortunate for the millions of starving, helpless people that the American people give to everyday. It is ashame someone says these things, it is like shooting your neighbors barking dog. Then the next night your car is stolen out of the garage that was next to the neighbors dog pin.

swings and roundabouts, i guess.
Charity on one hand, and death and destruction on the other.

If an economic crash humbles the neocon agenda for PNAC - then good.
The US at the moment is the greatest contributor to world instability at the moment - and it ought to be reigned in. Unfortunately - the american people don't seem to be capable of this - and we all know that in the end: money is what makes the world go round. If the US runs out of money it can't pursue instability in the way it has been doing.

[shocker1]

swings and roundabouts, i guess.
Charity on one hand, and death and destruction on the other.

If an economic crash humbles the neocon agenda for PNAC - then good.
The US at the moment is the greatest contributor to world instability at the moment - and it ought to be reigned in. Unfortunately - the american people don't seem to be capable of this - and we all know that in the end: money is what makes the world go round. If the US runs out of money it can't pursue instability in the way it has been doing.
This is why I am voting for Ron Paul. this highminded blame America **** is old. To hell with the rest of the world. Fight your own wars, feed Africa yourself. Rescue disaster victims far from your shores and we can just watch and complain like everyone else seems to do.

Have you ever seen a bag of EuroAID wheat?

[Durandal]

swings and roundabouts, i guess.
Charity on one hand, and death and destruction on the other.

If an economic crash humbles the neocon agenda for PNAC - then good.
The US at the moment is the greatest contributor to world instability at the moment - and it ought to be reigned in. Unfortunately - the american people don't seem to be capable of this - and we all know that in the end: money is what makes the world go round. If the US runs out of money it can't pursue instability in the way it has been doing.

*chuckle*

Grasshopper, you need to walk the earth a bit more.

[Durandal]

This is why I am voting for Ron Paul. this highminded blame America **** is old. To hell with the rest of the world. Fight your own wars, feed Africa yourself. Rescue disaster victims far from your shores and we can just watch and complain like everyone else seems to do.

Preach on brother!

I'll never sell another Enfield to help out Tsunami victims EVER again.

[foxtrot023]

The markets are currently worried about the effects the subprime is having on the economy. They are also worried how the current rates will affect national consumption, which had been the mainstay of the economy the last 4 yrs.

People are betting on the Fed lowering the rate to 5% in September, but it will depend on inflation. On the plus side core inflation reading today came in at .1%

[Typhooner]

This is why I am voting for Ron Paul. this highminded blame America **** is old. To hell with the rest of the world. Fight your own wars, feed Africa yourself. Rescue disaster victims far from your shores and we can just watch and complain like everyone else seems to do.

Have you ever seen a bag of EuroAID wheat?

cry me a river.

It'll be the best thing you'll ever do. A US that doesn't meddle in the affairs of other nations will benefit all.

[foxtrot023]

cry me a river.

It'll be the best thing you'll ever do. A US that doesn't meddle in the affairs of other nations will benefit all.

Get a grip on reality

[shocker1]

cry me a river.

It'll be the best thing you'll ever do. A US that doesn't meddle in the affairs of other nations will benefit all.
Yes because no one else meddles, only the US is doing that. I for one am glad you want us to go away. Maybe your kind of thinker will not immigrate to my country getting the place dirty.

[Typhooner]

Get a grip on reality

:roll:

you don't like my opinion. Be brave and admit it - instead of trying to dismiss it.

[Typhooner]

Yes because no one else meddles, only the US is doing that. I for one am glad you want us to go away. Maybe your kind of thinker will not immigrate to my country getting the place dirty.

They do but not to the extent of the US. At least not now. America has been sowing world instability: picking fights with China, Russia, Iran, North Korea and god knows who else; ignoring the international community; pursuing unilateral policies, trade wars and illegal invasions. And it's all coming to a head. The US has got itself into a pickle - and now the weight of displeasure of the wider world is starting to bear down on it. There's only so much pushing one can do, before others start to push back.

This just displaces a typical arrogance which is not uncommon in your part of the world.

Why would i want to immigrate to the United States. I am not an impoverished mexican or a starving African. I am quite content with my life and no - I don't believe the sun revolves around America. It seems as the US becomes weaker those that are in denial, become more and more defensive.

[shocker1]

They do but not to the extent of the US. At least not now. America has been sowing world instability: picking fights with China, Russia, Iran, North Korea and god knows who else; ignoring the international community; pursuing unilateral policies, trade wars and illegal invasions. And it's all coming to a head. The US has got itself into a pickle - and now the weight of displeasure of the wider world is starting to bear down on it. There's only so much pushing one can do, before others start to push back.

This just displaces a typical arrogance which is not uncommon in your part of the world.

Why would i want to immigrate to the United States. I am not an impoverished mexican or a starving African. I am quite content with my life and no - I don't believe the sun revolves around America. It seems as the US becomes weaker those that are in denial, become more and more defensive.
Man your idotic bias is sickening. The sun revolves around the blackhole at the center of the galaxy you twit. I will leave you with your poor abused by America buddies. Have fun

[Typhooner]

Man your idotic bias is sickening. The sun revolves around the blackhole at the center of the galaxy you twit. I will leave you with your poor abused by America buddies. Have fun

Everyone on this forum is biased.

You just don't like my opinion.
Thus you will cry when i say that american hard power is not good for the world; that america is sowing instability, and that america's popularity is not at an all time high.

Wake up and smell the coffee. If America falls on hard time economically it's ability to influence others will plunge: and that's when you will find out the depth of displeasure of the international community. Unfortunately there's probably a greater chance of you immigrating to my country if America falls into a deep recession.

[shocker1]

Everyone on this forum is biased.

You just don't like my opinion.
Thus you will cry when i say that american hard power is not good for the world; that america is sowing instability, and that america's popularity is not at an all time high.

Wake up and smell the coffee. If America falls on hard time economically it's ability to influence others will plunge: and that's when you will find out the depth of displeasure of the international community. Unfortunately there's probably a greater chance of you immigrating to my country if America falls into a deep recession.
in all your rants you have not mention the terrorist or fundi governments spewing forth hate and Death wishes.. Do you not think radical Fundi Islam in the form of a national Government is sowing instability? Oh wait America pisses off Muslims. Get rid of American influence and the Radical Muslim will love you and throw you flowers. You need to wake up and smell the coffee.

I would live in a cave eating roaches and die a horrible slow death before I leave this land. Anyway enough said you have you opinion and I have mine. Leave it at that.

[BloodyTalon]

Oh sweet Jesus, Typhooner's "American's are the source of all the world's problems" rant is too good to let go! I'm turning on the Ngati-signal:
http://static.flickr.com/40/85543188_9b66b0b896_o.jpg

[Typhooner]

in all your rants you have not mention the terrorist or fundi governments spewing forth hate and Death wishes.. Do you not think radical Fundi Islam in the form of a national Government is sowing instability? Oh wait America pisses off Muslims. Get rid of American influence and the Radical Muslim will love you and throw you flowers. You need to wake up and smell the coffee.

What are you babbling about?

Saudi Arabia and it's arab friends enjoy unbridled support from the United States. Then they go and pump their oil dollars into wahhabi mosques all over the world - and nobody says ****.

They are a pain in the ass, no doubt. But they are not in America's league.

If you are referencing Iran, then it's a different discussion. Iran only has influence in Iraq and Afghanistan because the US went in there and got rid of their anti Iranian governments. So in the end: you reap what you sow.

[foxtrot023]

:roll:

you don't like my opinion. Be brave and admit it - instead of trying to dismiss it.

No I do not like your opinion. I got a Masters in International Relations, and I can tell you that your opinion is just that...an opinion. So until you bring something else, like hard facts, books, thesis, etc to the table instead of constant whinging, I will continue to dismiss your opinion.

[Typhooner]

No I do not like your opinion. I got a Masters in International Relations, and I can tell you that your opinion is just that...an opinion. So until you bring something else, like hard facts, books, thesis, etc to the table instead of constant whinging, I will continue to dismiss your opinion.

so you went to the supermarket and bought a roll of toilet paper?

Congratulations!

[Chulo]

They do but not to the extent of the US. At least not now. America has been sowing world instability: picking fights with China, Russia, Iran, North Korea and god knows who else; ignoring the international community; pursuing unilateral policies, trade wars and illegal invasions. And it's all coming to a head. The US has got itself into a pickle - and now the weight of displeasure of the wider world is starting to bear down on it. There's only so much pushing one can do, before others start to push back.

This just displaces a typical arrogance which is not uncommon in your part of the world.

Why would i want to immigrate to the United States. I am not an impoverished mexican or a starving African. I am quite content with my life and no - I don't believe the sun revolves around America. It seems as the US becomes weaker those that are in denial, become more and more defensive.
hehe since its only poor mexicans and starving africans that come to america. THen again what has your country done to help people in a famine or disasters or funding for the United Nations or support for people under a tyrant?

[Typhooner]

hehe since its only poor mexicans and starving africans that come to america. THen again what has your country done to help people in a famine or disasters or funding for the United Nations or support for people under a tyrant?

alot actually.

We are one of your closest allies - unfortunately.

[Chulo]

alot actually.

We are one of your closest allies - unfortunately.
ok.. alot.. like?

[8thidpathfinderpower]

Not to pick on you 2sheds, but I would have to disagree with you, totally.

I used to run a transportation company. One thing I leaarned about coming trends in US Economic growth, is to pay attention to the amont of trucks on the highway. I am not just talking about major cities, but across the country as a whole. And, to watch the markets very closely, with key indicators as oil, food comodities, steel manufacturing, durable goods(cars, airplanes) and housing.

The stock market reached its highest ever not too long ago. People are selling off now, to make their money. Companies that depend on that income to buy supplies and machines will eventually start to slow down or stop manufacturng. Jobless rates have risen, and because of the massive selloffs, forigen investors grow weary, sell off stock in american goods and currency, and there you have it...a looming economic crisis.

Most of the monies being made, is right up there on wall street. Not in the streets where it belongs. We do not make anything, because manufacturing capacity is not there...we assemble products, but that goes far from actually making them from scratch. Prices have risen to hit personal income very hard. The high paying jobs that americans are so used to have fallen to the wayside, to only be taken place by service sector jobs, that pay far less. People are in far more debt than decades ago, because of easy credits, which has grown the way for predatory lending, and now, because loads of people are defaultingm on loans..every thing from cars to credit cards, we are very insolvent.

Personaly, I would take what the thread starter posted a little more seriously.

[Horizon]

The irony about the sub primes, is that the "poors" or bad credits history citizens who are showed as the culprits, it seems the profiteers who have made billions of dollars relocating the manufactures in China and Asia, saying it was impossible to produce in their own country, at a descent price, earned their money on the back of their own country and citizens.As a result many have suffered job losses, or accept income losses, obliged to live on loans, as the cost of day to day living was going up.

All this has gone almost unnoticed, because in the same time many prices have dropped eg : clothes, electronics, cars, except houses.In a materialistic point of view we are "rich", but on a closer look, almost all of your belongins are made in Asia, for some they are cheap....until Asia develops to a point where their workers will enjoy what the West enjoyed in the 50s/60s, when we gonna wake up, China could be virtually the owner of your country, but no worries it is the global market no??


As an example of my theory I will make a short list of my clothes, and things on my desk :

Clothes :

_A nice pair of Levi's shoes (famous American!) made in Vietnam
_A pair of Kappa made in Vietnam
_A T shirt made in India
_A fleece made in Thailand
_A pair of gloves (Alpinestars famous American brand) made in China
_Technical shirt 100% poly. made in Thailand

Ok...

On/by my desk :

_Pentax camera assembled in Philippines
_Calculator made in China
_Microsoft keyboard made in China (opt. mouse too)
_Pionneer earphones made in China
_LCD flat screen LG made in Korea
_Nokia phone "Mexico to Hungary to China" dunno exactly what place
And so on...

For I am sure :

A Zippo made in America
FISKARS scissors with U.S.A engraved

That's all I got in this example from the U.S.A, so there's no needs to wonder the economical worries that are before us.

[seer]

Nice call Sevryn!!

[wotsnext]

I own a Ford motorcar.....But cannot think of any other item of US origin, The same is true here in the UK.....Loads of British brands, But all made in the far east, THis situation would have scared my grandad Sh1tless :-(

[foxtrot023]

Subprime is affecting more than expected. However when you see the profit picture, per example, they are still doing well. Let us wait and see what the Fed does in September