Pakistan a Heartbeat From Marshal Law

[NewsMan]

The Global War on Terror seems to be teetering on a very deep chasm. Reports out of Pakistan say that President (General) Musharaff, could be just hours from declaring a state of emergency for what the AP quotes “external and internal threats”. Pakistan’s Minister for State Information tells the AP that gestures coming out of Washington have,”started alarm bells ringing and has upset the Pakistani public.” In particular the tribal agency areas of Waziristan, where much of the innuendo is directed.

http://www.battlefieldtourist.com/

[vinny_121_ND]

we have warned him many times that this may, and probably will happen. Militants in pakistan are well trained, well armed, and willing to do suicide bombings if the military moves in on these bases. How many weapons caches are hidden all over pakistan? Many. I simply don't want to speculate what will happen in the near future.

[DanteXavier]

Obama got slammed recently for talking about what to do about Pakistan, but maybe his plans wouldn't have mattered at all anyway-Pakistan is still quite unstable all by itself, it seems.

Things keep going like this, then Pakistan's regime might already be gone by the time we elect the next pres.

[Decebalus]

This should teach Obama to mess with a very instable government.

[Rifleman]

On August 1, Democratic presidential-hopeful Senator Barak Obama kicked it up a notch saying that if it were necessary to send troops into Pakistan to root out terrorists, he would do it even if he didn’t gain permission from the Pakistanis. Senator Hilary Clinton, while not disagreeing with Obama’s suggestion, blasted him, suggesting he doesn’t always have to say what he thinks.

I find the above very interesting and telling.

So David, care to speculate? Paint a picture of the region the day after Musharaff falls. Is it possiable that it won't happen?

[nullterm]

Obama's comments were dumb. The more I hear from him, the more I hope he doesn't get the Dem nom. The guy has no experience being a leader at that level and is light years from being there.

However, he didn't make it unstable in the first place.

[Ordie]

Simple solution for the 'tribal areas'.
Make them into full states with representation in Islamabad.

Part of the problem is that power is deferred to local tribal leaders who weild power over thier fifedoms. Sometimes thier power is based on nepotism, favortism, fundamentalism, wahabbism, or any other 'ism'. The fact of the matter people in these areas are dependant on tribal leader.

If Pakistan made these areas into full states, with direct representation in Islamabad, with direct access to much needed funds and policymaking process, I would not think Osama would have any chance in taking advantage of a juristictional void.

[LRPV]

Comment MG-3? What's the local gossip?

[Kilgor]

This should teach Obama to mess with a very instable government.

Are you saying its his fault ?

[Mu-Meson]

A thread on Pakistans instability and no one has brought up their nukes? Those are what worry me. Not Osama hiding out in Assbackwardzistan in the Afghan-Pakistan border region.

[NewsMan]

A thread on Pakistans instability and no one has brought up their nukes? Those are what worry me. Not Osama hiding out in Assbackwardzistan in the Afghan-Pakistan border region.

My original post links to my full article that ends with:

" The implications to GWOT are obvious and dramatic. pakistan is nearly split between a people interested in democratic reform and those that would back a far-right Islamic regieme, many of whom are major Taleb supporters. Pakistan also has nuclear weapons. Enough said."

DT

[NewsMan]

So David, care to speculate? Paint a picture of the region the day after Musharaff falls. Is it possiable that it won't happen?

Wouldn't want to speculate... The possibilities are far too numerous.

[Rictor]

I think Musharaf will do the smart thing - invite Benazir Bhutto back into the fold , let Chaudry keep his position and resign as head of the military. He could defuse internal tensions in one swift stroke and be free to attack extremists as he sees fit. Without allies, the religious parties are not nearly so formidable.

Declaring marshal law would only be a temporary solution...in the end, it will lead to the governments overthrow more surely than any alternatives courses of action, and I think Musharaf is savvy enough to realize this.

edit: I seriously doubt that the military would simply hand over the nukes to whichever backward-ass cleric comes along and demands them in case of a coup. In fact, the military would make sure that whoever is established in government knows well and good that the stability and standing of the country are not to be jeopardized, and that the armed forces are not pawns to be used to advance some narrow agenda. Don't panic.