2RHPZ
05-10-2004, 10:22 AM
January 4, 2003
Only a matter of time for terrorists?
By Timothy Gusinov
SPECIAL TO THE WASHINGTON TIMES
Thankfully, neither of the two shoulder-fired missiles hit the
aircraft, but in my opinion, as a Russian veteran of the 1979-89
Soviet war in Afghanistan, this is only the first of more such
attacks to come. It seems likely that only limited time separates us
from when such weapons could be smuggled into and used in the United
States or Europe, with high casualties.
Last month, a posting to an Internet site claimed
responsibility by al Qaeda for the missile attack in Mombasa and the
car bombing of the Paradise Hotel near Mombasa that resulted in 15
deaths. Two launchers and one intact missile were recovered near the
airport, said reports from East Africa. Police in Mombasa identified
them as old, Soviet-made "Strela" (Arrow) missiles.
Over the past three decades, nearly 30 commercial aircraft have
been downed by shoulder-fired missiles, according to published
reports. All were small planes and all were downed in Africa, where
they were carrying weapons for the continent's furious and
near-continuous wars, national leaders and their delegations,
negotiators, peacekeepers or mercenaries.
But it is just a matter of time before more powerful and
accurate modern anti-aircraft missiles fall into terrorist hands.
In the United States, international airports with large numbers
of intercontinental flights catering not only to Americans, but
foreigners ? diplomats, businessmen and tourists ? are ideal targets
for such attacks.
Man-portable shoulder-launched missiles are the next logical
weapon of choice for terrorists. Their deployment nearly guarantees
high death tolls, in some cases perhaps killing all those aboard the
plane and ? if the terrorists get lucky ? causing devastation on the
ground.
Terrorist threat
Such missiles can also produce a terrifying effect on public
opinion, and consequently, have high economic impact on air carriers
and related industries.
Despite the fact that such missiles, especially the latest
models, are considered to be high-tech weapons, there are many
sources from which terrorist organizations can obtain them.
During the Soviet-Afghan war, weapons so generously supplied by
the United States and other countries to Afghan "freedom fighters"
(who were, and still are, really fighting to preserve their feudal
past) often found their way to the black market through the
mujahideen training and supply centers in Pakistan's North West
Frontier Province.
These major surface-to-air missiles training centers in this
province were known to Soviet military intelligence: Miramshah,
Warsak, Jamrud, Arawali and Kohat.
Coincidentally, the first Stinger missile to fall into Soviet
military hands was captured by a Spetsnaz (Special Forces) team
south of Kandahar. Later, some "surplus" Stingers were simply bought
by KhAD (the Afghan communist government's KGB counterpart) agents
at the well-known weapons market at Rabati-Jali, near the Pakistani
border.
During the Soviet Union's Afghan war, the mujahideen developed
sophisticated tactics for engaging Soviet aircraft and helicopters.
Because a guided missile was a valuable weapon, the missile team
usually included an operator and his aide with one or two missiles,
plus 10 to 15 fighters to protect them and capture or kill downed
pilots.
Under cover of night, such a team would approach an airfield,
take cover using terrain features and camouflage nets, and wait for
arriving or departing aircraft. After the launch, they would retreat
to a vehicle waiting in a nearby dry river bed, foothills or a green
vegetation zone.
U.S. troops in danger
During current American operations in Afghanistan, such tactics
can be used against U.S. air bases in Bagram, Kandahar and Khost.
According to an original Soviet military-intelligence report seen by
this author, these locations were the most likely spots for
launching portable missiles:
?Bagram air base: Chauni, Kalanasru, Kalaye-Biland, Sayad.
?Kandahar air base: Mir Afzal-Kalai, Ismaelkarez,
Mohammed-Gaush.
Sometimes, mujahideen "free hunt" missile teams would climb to
mountain lookouts along routes favored by planes, whose pilots
considered themselves to be flying at safe altitudes. In 1987, a
Spetsnaz team intercepted and destroyed an enemy convoy carrying
portable oxygen bottles and masks among the usual load of weapons
and ammunition.
The Soviet air force used these methods to reduce losses:
?Alternating routes of approach to the airfield and using a
corkscrew pattern during descents and climbs.
?Dispersing heat flares to divert the heat-seeking guidance
system of the missiles. Often, in addition to flares dispersed by
troop or cargo aircraft, planes were accompanied by a pair of
helicopters firing flares and ready to engage any target on the
ground.
Such flares can intercept older portable missiles like the
American Redeye and Soviet Strela series, SA-7 Grail, SA-9 Gaskin
and SA-13 Gopher, but new models lock on the initial target and
can't be diverted by other heat sources. Even a sharp turn in the
direction of the sun ? a maneuver favored by pilots ? is not so
effective against newer generations of these deadly weapons.
?Using special devices to decrease the heat signature of the
aircraft or helicopter. From 1985, Soviet helicopters in Afghanistan
were fitted with the "Lastochka" ("Swallow") ? a device that
diverted hot exhaust gases upward and dispersed them.
Another device tested by the Soviets in Afghanistan was an
optical-electronic station, which used a powerful heat-producing
xenon lamp with rotating lenses to create moving infrared beams
around the helicopter. These beams caused interference in the
missile's guidance system, forcing it off course.
Most of the portable missiles in Afghanistan were of the older,
Soviet- and Egyptian-made SA Strela series, but in the mid-1980s
American Stingers and British Blowpipe weapons were introduced to
challenge Soviet dominance of the skies.
However, according to information obtained from mujahideen
missile crews captured and interrogated by Soviet intelligence, they
were disappointed with the Blowpipe's performance. Its disadvantages
were low accuracy, heavy weight and a complicated guidance system.
Stingers the best
Afghan fighters admired American Stingers, but criticized weak
points: If the target-locking system was deployed, but for some
reasons the missile was not fired for more than a minute, the
battery pack lost its charge and had to be replaced. A relatively
narrow angle of target acquisition also required well-trained
operators.
Unfortunately, Afghanistan is not the only source of such
weapons for terrorists. They are available in many countries with
weak or corrupt regimes and in military-conflict zones.
Chechen separatists acquired such missiles from Russian
military stockpiles after declaring independence in 1992. Later,
they managed to obtain the much more accurate and deadly SA-16
Gimlet (in Russian, "Igla," or "Needle") missiles. Last August,
Chechen fighters used one to shoot down a Russian transport
helicopter, killing 118.
Since Chechen separatists have established close relations with
al Qaeda and many even fought for the Taliban against the Americans
in Afghanistan, there is no doubt that this type of modern
shoulder-launched missile is also available to terrorists. Russia
sells such portable missile complexes and its modernized SA-18
version to India, Malaysia, Brazil and other countries and is
negotiating its sale to Iran.
It is unlikely that American Stingers delivered to Afghan
mujahideen in the '80s are still operational. Moreover, Stingers
have friend-or-foe recognition capability. They can hardly be fired
at U.S. military aircraft equipped with responders unless terrorists
learn how to disable the equipment.
The question is whether all civilian aircraft have such
responders. Even if they do, terrorists can target non-American
carriers.
"Fresh" Stingers could be obtained on the huge black market.
Even if older models are smuggled into the United States, they cause
an imminent danger.
Jetliners based in the United States or nations that are part
of the anti-terror coalition are most likely to be attacked. The
good news is that it is next to impossible to bring down a huge
civilian jet using one portable missile. It is only possible if the
terrorists get a lucky shot, causing extensive damage to aircraft
flaps, or if a panicked crew loses control.
The warheads of such missiles weigh no more than three or four
pounds. Damaged passenger jets have more than one engine and pilots
can attempt an emergency landing. Remarkably, when an aircraft
engine is hit by such a missile, much more damage is caused by the
sharp turbine blades torn from the shaft body and flying in all
directions than by the explosion itself.
It is hard to predict when and how terrorists might try to use
these deadly "needles" against civilian planes in the United States.
But there is no doubt about one thing ? even a single, non-fatal
missile attack would deliver a devastating blow to the air-travel
industry, which is still recovering from the painful aftermath of
September 11.
?Timothy Gusinov spent two tours of duty in Afghanistan during
the 1980s with Russian military advisers, Soviet troops and Spetsnaz
(Special Forces). He speaks Farsi and Dari. He was wounded twice and
his medals include the Order of the Red Star. He was promoted to the
rank of major at age 28. He currently lives in the United States.
© 1999-2003 News World Communications, Inc.
Only a matter of time for terrorists?
By Timothy Gusinov
SPECIAL TO THE WASHINGTON TIMES
Thankfully, neither of the two shoulder-fired missiles hit the
aircraft, but in my opinion, as a Russian veteran of the 1979-89
Soviet war in Afghanistan, this is only the first of more such
attacks to come. It seems likely that only limited time separates us
from when such weapons could be smuggled into and used in the United
States or Europe, with high casualties.
Last month, a posting to an Internet site claimed
responsibility by al Qaeda for the missile attack in Mombasa and the
car bombing of the Paradise Hotel near Mombasa that resulted in 15
deaths. Two launchers and one intact missile were recovered near the
airport, said reports from East Africa. Police in Mombasa identified
them as old, Soviet-made "Strela" (Arrow) missiles.
Over the past three decades, nearly 30 commercial aircraft have
been downed by shoulder-fired missiles, according to published
reports. All were small planes and all were downed in Africa, where
they were carrying weapons for the continent's furious and
near-continuous wars, national leaders and their delegations,
negotiators, peacekeepers or mercenaries.
But it is just a matter of time before more powerful and
accurate modern anti-aircraft missiles fall into terrorist hands.
In the United States, international airports with large numbers
of intercontinental flights catering not only to Americans, but
foreigners ? diplomats, businessmen and tourists ? are ideal targets
for such attacks.
Man-portable shoulder-launched missiles are the next logical
weapon of choice for terrorists. Their deployment nearly guarantees
high death tolls, in some cases perhaps killing all those aboard the
plane and ? if the terrorists get lucky ? causing devastation on the
ground.
Terrorist threat
Such missiles can also produce a terrifying effect on public
opinion, and consequently, have high economic impact on air carriers
and related industries.
Despite the fact that such missiles, especially the latest
models, are considered to be high-tech weapons, there are many
sources from which terrorist organizations can obtain them.
During the Soviet-Afghan war, weapons so generously supplied by
the United States and other countries to Afghan "freedom fighters"
(who were, and still are, really fighting to preserve their feudal
past) often found their way to the black market through the
mujahideen training and supply centers in Pakistan's North West
Frontier Province.
These major surface-to-air missiles training centers in this
province were known to Soviet military intelligence: Miramshah,
Warsak, Jamrud, Arawali and Kohat.
Coincidentally, the first Stinger missile to fall into Soviet
military hands was captured by a Spetsnaz (Special Forces) team
south of Kandahar. Later, some "surplus" Stingers were simply bought
by KhAD (the Afghan communist government's KGB counterpart) agents
at the well-known weapons market at Rabati-Jali, near the Pakistani
border.
During the Soviet Union's Afghan war, the mujahideen developed
sophisticated tactics for engaging Soviet aircraft and helicopters.
Because a guided missile was a valuable weapon, the missile team
usually included an operator and his aide with one or two missiles,
plus 10 to 15 fighters to protect them and capture or kill downed
pilots.
Under cover of night, such a team would approach an airfield,
take cover using terrain features and camouflage nets, and wait for
arriving or departing aircraft. After the launch, they would retreat
to a vehicle waiting in a nearby dry river bed, foothills or a green
vegetation zone.
U.S. troops in danger
During current American operations in Afghanistan, such tactics
can be used against U.S. air bases in Bagram, Kandahar and Khost.
According to an original Soviet military-intelligence report seen by
this author, these locations were the most likely spots for
launching portable missiles:
?Bagram air base: Chauni, Kalanasru, Kalaye-Biland, Sayad.
?Kandahar air base: Mir Afzal-Kalai, Ismaelkarez,
Mohammed-Gaush.
Sometimes, mujahideen "free hunt" missile teams would climb to
mountain lookouts along routes favored by planes, whose pilots
considered themselves to be flying at safe altitudes. In 1987, a
Spetsnaz team intercepted and destroyed an enemy convoy carrying
portable oxygen bottles and masks among the usual load of weapons
and ammunition.
The Soviet air force used these methods to reduce losses:
?Alternating routes of approach to the airfield and using a
corkscrew pattern during descents and climbs.
?Dispersing heat flares to divert the heat-seeking guidance
system of the missiles. Often, in addition to flares dispersed by
troop or cargo aircraft, planes were accompanied by a pair of
helicopters firing flares and ready to engage any target on the
ground.
Such flares can intercept older portable missiles like the
American Redeye and Soviet Strela series, SA-7 Grail, SA-9 Gaskin
and SA-13 Gopher, but new models lock on the initial target and
can't be diverted by other heat sources. Even a sharp turn in the
direction of the sun ? a maneuver favored by pilots ? is not so
effective against newer generations of these deadly weapons.
?Using special devices to decrease the heat signature of the
aircraft or helicopter. From 1985, Soviet helicopters in Afghanistan
were fitted with the "Lastochka" ("Swallow") ? a device that
diverted hot exhaust gases upward and dispersed them.
Another device tested by the Soviets in Afghanistan was an
optical-electronic station, which used a powerful heat-producing
xenon lamp with rotating lenses to create moving infrared beams
around the helicopter. These beams caused interference in the
missile's guidance system, forcing it off course.
Most of the portable missiles in Afghanistan were of the older,
Soviet- and Egyptian-made SA Strela series, but in the mid-1980s
American Stingers and British Blowpipe weapons were introduced to
challenge Soviet dominance of the skies.
However, according to information obtained from mujahideen
missile crews captured and interrogated by Soviet intelligence, they
were disappointed with the Blowpipe's performance. Its disadvantages
were low accuracy, heavy weight and a complicated guidance system.
Stingers the best
Afghan fighters admired American Stingers, but criticized weak
points: If the target-locking system was deployed, but for some
reasons the missile was not fired for more than a minute, the
battery pack lost its charge and had to be replaced. A relatively
narrow angle of target acquisition also required well-trained
operators.
Unfortunately, Afghanistan is not the only source of such
weapons for terrorists. They are available in many countries with
weak or corrupt regimes and in military-conflict zones.
Chechen separatists acquired such missiles from Russian
military stockpiles after declaring independence in 1992. Later,
they managed to obtain the much more accurate and deadly SA-16
Gimlet (in Russian, "Igla," or "Needle") missiles. Last August,
Chechen fighters used one to shoot down a Russian transport
helicopter, killing 118.
Since Chechen separatists have established close relations with
al Qaeda and many even fought for the Taliban against the Americans
in Afghanistan, there is no doubt that this type of modern
shoulder-launched missile is also available to terrorists. Russia
sells such portable missile complexes and its modernized SA-18
version to India, Malaysia, Brazil and other countries and is
negotiating its sale to Iran.
It is unlikely that American Stingers delivered to Afghan
mujahideen in the '80s are still operational. Moreover, Stingers
have friend-or-foe recognition capability. They can hardly be fired
at U.S. military aircraft equipped with responders unless terrorists
learn how to disable the equipment.
The question is whether all civilian aircraft have such
responders. Even if they do, terrorists can target non-American
carriers.
"Fresh" Stingers could be obtained on the huge black market.
Even if older models are smuggled into the United States, they cause
an imminent danger.
Jetliners based in the United States or nations that are part
of the anti-terror coalition are most likely to be attacked. The
good news is that it is next to impossible to bring down a huge
civilian jet using one portable missile. It is only possible if the
terrorists get a lucky shot, causing extensive damage to aircraft
flaps, or if a panicked crew loses control.
The warheads of such missiles weigh no more than three or four
pounds. Damaged passenger jets have more than one engine and pilots
can attempt an emergency landing. Remarkably, when an aircraft
engine is hit by such a missile, much more damage is caused by the
sharp turbine blades torn from the shaft body and flying in all
directions than by the explosion itself.
It is hard to predict when and how terrorists might try to use
these deadly "needles" against civilian planes in the United States.
But there is no doubt about one thing ? even a single, non-fatal
missile attack would deliver a devastating blow to the air-travel
industry, which is still recovering from the painful aftermath of
September 11.
?Timothy Gusinov spent two tours of duty in Afghanistan during
the 1980s with Russian military advisers, Soviet troops and Spetsnaz
(Special Forces). He speaks Farsi and Dari. He was wounded twice and
his medals include the Order of the Red Star. He was promoted to the
rank of major at age 28. He currently lives in the United States.
© 1999-2003 News World Communications, Inc.