Walker's World: China's own crisis

[Jaegermeister + Red Bull]

Walker's World: China's own crisis (http://www.upi.com/International_Security/Emerging_Threats/Analysis/2007/10/08/walkers_world_chinas_own_crisis/5106/)

By MARTIN WALKER
UPI Editor Emeritus
WASHINGTON, Oct. 8 (UPI) -- These are difficult days for Chinese President Hu Jintao, as he faces a new Party Congress that was supposed to impose his stamp upon the regime and select the next generation of leaders by appointing his chosen successors to the new Politburo standing committee.

But everything is going wrong at once. Another 600,000 Chinese-made toys have just been withdrawn by U.S. authorities for lead paint and other safety reasons. China’s export miracle faces both wage inflation and new competition from India. Chinese exports may also be heading for trouble with its biggest single market, the European Union, after the EU Chamber of Commerce in China this month issued a bitterly critical report on discrimination against them by Chinese regulators.

Taiwan is thumbing its nose, preparing to display its military might (including cruise missiles that can hit Chinese targets) with its first military parade in 16 years to celebrate next week’s national day. There are threats of military action if Taiwan acts on the suggestion by President Chen Shui-bian that Taipei should apply to join the United Nations under the name of Taiwan, a direct challenge to Beijing’s insistence on "one China.” Western military observers note with alarm China’s new chief of the general staff has just been promoted from his last job as general commanding the region facing Taiwan.

China’s investors are blithely ignoring official warnings to curtail the floods of savings going into the Shanghai stock market, and an ominous bubble is building, along with inflation spurred on to 8 percent by the surge in pork and other food prices.

And now a campaign is under way by human-rights groups and Western politicians to organize a boycott of next year’s Olympic Games in Beijing, in protest of China’s support for deeply unsavory regimes in Sudan and Myanmar. The Internet reports and grim images of the brutal clampdown of Myanmar’s Buddhist monks may have been stopped, but the horror lingers on. China is paying an increasingly high price for its client states.

Most troubling of all for Hu, however, are the signs of serious dissension at the top of Chinese politics. The 17th Party Congress takes place in Beijing Oct. 15-19, and former leader Jiang Zemin appears to be opposing Hu's choice for the next generation of leaders to be anointed and prepared for the eventual succession.

This comes as a surprise, since Jiang was supposed to be sidelined since he gave up the chairmanship of the military committee, and since the purge of the party leadership in his old base of Shanghai. But Chinese commentators and China-watchers agree a tense struggle for power is under way, and that Hu may not be able to impose his own choice to replace him when he stands down in 2012. Such a sign of weakness would undermine his authority and start to make him look like a lame duck.

Hu is backing Li Keqiang, 52, the top party official in Liaoning province. Jiang is backing the new party leader in Shanghai, Xi Jinping, 54, the son of another top party official and thus known in China as a "princeling." These princelings, sons of the powerful who have taken advantage of their status to achieve high rank and wealth and key positions in the booming economy, tend to stick together. And people from Shanghai, as the place that produces so much of China’s new wealth, tend to stick together against the political power center of Beijing.

Usually, Hu's choice of Li would be decisive, and Li could expect to become head of the party secretariat, the key springboard to power. But rumor is rife that Li will have to settle for the vice-premier position, which would almost certainly lead him to becoming prime minister in 2012. So Xi from Shanghai is now thought more likely to get the key party job, which will give him the inside track on the succession.

There are three interesting features of this power struggle for Western observers. The first is that this clash is about personalities, not policies. Broadly speaking, there seems to be consensus behind Hu's policy of “the harmonious society” that uses China’s new wealth to improve health and social services and flatten some of the disparities in income and conditions between rural and urban societies.

There is also consensus that China’s environmental problems need dramatic action -- witness the support for Hu's call last week for more than $250 billion in investment to protect the battered environment. (To put this in perspective, the Center for Strategic & International Studies in Washington last week issued a report that suggested up to 37 percent of China’s remaining arable land was at dire risk from climate change.)

The second interesting feature is the difference between Beijing and Shanghai is more than a simple matter of geography, of Beijing being an inland northern city and Shanghai being a great port and open to the sea. Shanghai is about wealth and laxity, and Beijing is about power and discipline. Shanghai lives by trade and is inherently more open to the outside world, whereas the presence of the Forbidden City is carved into the history and the civic DNA of Beijing. For non-Chinese, the difference is about more than psychology.

The third and most intriguing feature is that the nature of power in Beijing is pluralist rather than dictatorial, and there is speculation among Chinese insiders that there will be so little to choose between Li and Xi in 2012, and since neither one will be strong enough to build a dominant position before then, there may have to be some form of party election. There is no other legitimate way of selecting the next leader. "This will be the start of the democratization of the Chinese Communist Party,” reads the conclusion of one commentary now circulating among China-watchers.

It is ascribed (but this is not confirmed) to Li Datong, former editor of Bingdian (Freezing Point), a weekly supplement of the China Youth Daily. (Hu's own power base, by the way, was the Youth section of the Party.) If that judgment is right, and China manages to navigate the various crises that loom ahead, this could be the beginning of a great and hopeful political drama.

[INAT]

Wait
Jaegermeister + Red Bull (http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/member.php?u=28432)? Do those drinks mix well? One is sour and one sweet. vbmenu_register("postmenu_2804019", true);

[Mu-Meson]

Wait
Jaegermeister + Red Bull (http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/member.php?u=28432)? Do those drinks mix well? One is sour and one sweet.

They do mix well.

[AmandlaEwetu]

has China in all of its long history ever been succesfull in a war when not fighting against fellow Chinese?
i cant think of any,imo to much trouble keeping a millions of people under control

[Freedom-Fries]

has China in all of its long history ever been succesfull in a war when not fighting against fellow Chinese?

Long history, what's that an insane figure like the last 4,000 years ?

Here's the low down on more recent events :

'Chinese Boxers' armed with bamboo sticks etc sent soldiers from France, Austria-Hungary, Japan packing when they staged a bloody rebellion

Chinese nationalists and Communists were able to prevent the Empire of Japan from expanding anymore beyond manchuria and hubei, for many years they alone fought with the Japanese and later helped defeat the Japan Empire with help of the allies like United States, France and Soviets. With Japan on the run after American success in battles like midway, the KMT and CCP were soon able to re-take the cities in the east.

Post-WW2 they defeated the US backed KMT

China gained a lot of ground near Jamu and Kashmir during the Indian Chinese conflict of the 60s

They beat Vietnam to control the Paracell Islands

Chinese held off the Russian during the Sino-Soviet border wars, when Russia and China split. Although its understood the Chinese lost more soldiers than the Russians.

During recent decades China and its PLA doesn't look too good, with China doing a miserable re-run of America's Vietnamese war and of course there's that Tinamen bloodbath against their own people.

[Lokos]

Chinese held off the Russian during the Sino-Soviet border wars

If by 'held off' you mean were routed on Damansky Island, where the only fighting of note took place.

Lokos

[Freedom-Fries]

People died, both from Russia and China but mostly Chinese in fighting along the Ussuri River. Russian forces were superior but they were also stopped from advancing, the Now you can scream out your RUSSIA STRONG interpretation of history but Russians also recently agreed to hand back Damansky to the Chinese.

[Lokos]

but Russians also recently agreed to hand back Damansky to the Chinese.

The Chinese were forced to withdraw their forces from Damansky island in the 60s conflict. Nothing you said indicates that they 'held their own'. And recent agreements have nothing to do with anything being discussed.

Lokos

[Bitogno]

'Chinese Boxers' armed with bamboo sticks etc sent soldiers from France, Austria-Hungary, Japan packing when they staged a bloody rebellion

According to Wikipedia :
Japaneses, Russians, Englishs, Frenchs, U.S. Germans, Italians and austro-Hungarians + Christian chineses.
The Boxers were defeated.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boxer_Rebellion

[Freedom-Fries]

It took a second intervention to defeat them, this is what I understood from reading about Boxers and during the first rebellion most foreign forces were overwhelmed by sheer numbers of Chinese, many were in retreat.

Boxers although they drove back foreigners in Chinese terms they were a small group of radicals. Even though their numbers were in thousands the Boxers were still a small group of people and didn't have full support from the Chinese people because many Chinese republicans and nationalists were anti-Qing or anti-Monarchy.

It wasn't until a second attack with British ships, American ships, the French navy etc started moving in and new troops arrived in from the ports that the Chinese Boxers were finally silenced.

[Solvent]

Long history, what's that an insane figure like the last 4,000 years ?

Here's the low down on more recent events :

'Chinese Boxers' armed with bamboo sticks etc sent soldiers from France, Austria-Hungary, Japan packing when they staged a bloody rebellion

Chinese nationalists and Communists were able to prevent the Empire of Japan from expanding anymore beyond manchuria and hubei, for many years they alone fought with the Japanese and later helped defeat the Japan Empire with help of the allies like United States, France and Soviets. With Japan on the run after American success in battles like midway, the KMT and CCP were soon able to re-take the cities in the east.

Post-WW2 they defeated the US backed KMT

China gained a lot of ground near Jamu and Kashmir during the Indian Chinese conflict of the 60s

They beat Vietnam to control the Paracell Islands

Chinese held off the Russian during the Sino-Soviet border wars, when Russia and China split. Although its understood the Chinese lost more soldiers than the Russians.

During recent decades China and its PLA doesn't look too good, with China doing a miserable re-run of America's Vietnamese war and of course there's that Tinamen bloodbath against their own people.

Forget Korean war? And there are two Sino-Vietnam wars. This first one had high casualty, but the strategic objective was achieved. The second one got much better.

[Mastermind]

China is currently in a very precarious position. There eventually must come a political trembler of unknown proportions as the ideology of the communists meets head on with the influence of the ever growing wealthy capitalists china is cultivating. The fantasic expansion of business, both state owned and privately owned is rapidly corrupting the communist system...well, let me alter that from "corrupting" to "badly warping". China is the second largest corn grower in the world and yet is still importing grain. The massive electrical power soon to be available from the Three Gorges dam project, and the flood of ensuing irrigation capacity with arable land stability the project will bring will make a massive changes that may cause huge ripples in the chinese economy and society, helping hundreds of millions more chinese enter the middle class, on par with the American middle class. Yet, china has many basic commodities and infrastructure that will hardly support such a number of wealthy people. In essence, communisim as China knows it is rapidly becoming obsolete...and there are no signs of a new political system to replace it. This might indicate a social mega-quake is probable in the near future. If China were to suddenly disintegrate into social chaos, there would be a massive world wide econmic disaster, due to the heavy integration of almost every economy in the world with that of the Chinese. I doubt that China can survive a new communist crack-down or purge, without entering into civil strife that would appear very much like a civl war....The amazingly subtile dissolution of the old Soviet Union into a quasi democratic state is not an example the modern Chinese are apt to follow.

I beleive that how China goes economically, so goes much of the western world. And, I have grave concerns over the old style Communists to keep up with such massive capitalistic changes.

[Jaegermeister + Red Bull]

Err...not sure how this post of mine got so off track by the majority of you, but at least Mastermind got the gist of the article and has made some good points.

Mastermind, I dont share most of your concerns. IMO, there may not be representative democracy in the sense of multi party system, but internally the CCP looks like it is going to head towards election of leaders instead of grooming a successor. And if official corruption, rule of law, rich/poor divide, social security, health care, banking, environment and a host of other issues are successfully tackled by the CCP then it may become one of the longest lasting "dynasty" in China's history. I dont see it as a capitalist/communist issue here. There is no need for a different political system to replace the "communist" system, cos there was never one there (try to think out of the box). China can very well have a centralised single party rule where the economy is market driven and social policy is geared towards societal harmony and stability. There may be limited democracy allowed by the CCP, such as a internal ballot and/or maybe even a branch/level of government becoming representatively elected.

I actually thinks that if the West wants multi party democracy to happen in China, it should be working at destabilizing China, and hence thereforth the CCP's grip on power. Throughout China's history there is not a single instance of dynastic change when things are going well. It only happens when the ****s are hitting the fan. It is no different now, I dont see the average Chinese citizen say in 2020 marching on the street demanding the right to vote when they can be making $. The wealth and affluence eventually will lead China to democracy is hen's teeth sold to the naive and stupid.

And just to satisfy the majority here, off topic...

Lokos, the skirmish on Zhengbaodao isnt the place where "the only fighting of note took place". There was a much larger engagement in Xinjiang later in August. It was retaliation by the Soviets for the Chinese "ambush" on the island. On the island the Chinese forces were not routed, they left when the Soviets sent reinforcement after the ambush. In Xinjiang however, by all accounts the Chinese were routed, although size of Chinese force vary from source to source, the Soviets were battalion in strength.

See links below.
http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB49/#doc11
Info contained in Document 1 and 12

Modern Chinese Warfare, 1795-1989 (http://books.google.com/books?id=EfrJ94gA1BoC&pg=PA270&lpg=PA270&dq=sino+soviet+clash&source=web&ots=6pFYhBs_wj&sig=QAi_hAkQYwaFlmeHnc-1peY2KUQ)By Bruce A. Elleman (http://books.google.com/books?id=EfrJ94gA1BoC&pg=PA270&lpg=PA270&dq=sino+soviet+clash&source=web&ots=6pFYhBs_wj&sig=QAi_hAkQYwaFlmeHnc-1peY2KUQ)

[Lokos]

Lokos, the skirmish on Zhengbaodao isnt the place where "the only fighting of note took place".

It's definitely the only one that got any attention...

But thank you for the link. Interesting.

EDIT:

There was an initial 'ambush' on the Damansky, wherein the Soviets did not dislodge the Chinese, and a much longer, nine hour battle that resulted in (according to Soviet claims) 800 Chinese casualties some two weeks later. That would actually make it far more significant than the fighting in Xinjiang, as your second source only covers Damansky, and your first asserts 'several hundreds' of Soviets in action against '100' Chinese.

My familiarity with the conflict is not total. Maybe I'm missing something. Clarify.

Lokos

[Mastermind]

I think we generally agree on this.

Although I do not see a new political system in the near future for China, I do expect a kind of political evolution.

I participated in a recent group discussion about generalities of China with some Chinese citizens from the mainland and I was quite surprised at their sophisticated long range views on the Chinese experience. They are ambivalent about any radical political changes in their own future but see good things down the line for their grand children. I was encouraged by this because it seems (if most folks in China are like them) they are basically prepared to weather choppy seas in order to avoid chaos and to preserve the chances for more personal freedoms for the future generations.

It may be there is a new kind of government developing that uses the best traits of both democracy and autocracy. Certainly, the CCP are greatly benefiting from their new openness and willingness to incorporate capitalistic economic freedoms. As long as they are protective of the business environment, which means necessisarily, allowing some degree of social freedom, things should go along quite smoothly for time to come.

I was also encouraged by the recent definace of Taiwan...the folks in Taiwan are clearly keeping a steady finger on the CCP pulse. And, in these last weeks they have declared more determination to defend the island and even presented new longer range weapons at a huge military parade...something they have not done in many years. Do they know something about the CCP we do not?

I think the biggest threat to China is the insecurity of nations competing with her. And, the huge "unknowns" if there is a drastic and sudden turndown in world economy...which, I consider to be quite likely in the light of the shaky US dollar and the massive, rapidly growing US debt burden that seems limitless but is not.

Reactions from within and without China to these potential economic disasters will be driven by very nervous and inexperienced hands, very likely to make grave mistakes.

[I can't think of a name]

Long history, what's that an insane figure like the last 4,000 years ?

Here's the low down on more recent events :

'Chinese Boxers' armed with bamboo sticks etc sent soldiers from France, Austria-Hungary, Japan packing when they staged a bloody rebellion

Chinese nationalists and Communists were able to prevent the Empire of Japan from expanding anymore beyond manchuria and hubei, for many years they alone fought with the Japanese and later helped defeat the Japan Empire with help of the allies like United States, France and Soviets. With Japan on the run after American success in battles like midway, the KMT and CCP were soon able to re-take the cities in the east.

Post-WW2 they defeated the US backed KMT

China gained a lot of ground near Jamu and Kashmir during the Indian Chinese conflict of the 60s

They beat Vietnam to control the Paracell Islands

Chinese held off the Russian during the Sino-Soviet border wars, when Russia and China split. Although its understood the Chinese lost more soldiers than the Russians.

During recent decades China and its PLA doesn't look too good, with China doing a miserable re-run of America's Vietnamese war and of course there's that Tinamen bloodbath against their own people.

You are pretty much wrong on all counts

[Jaegermeister + Red Bull]

To clarify there seems to be 3 incidents of note. First took place 2nd March, second one took place 14th or 15th March, both on Zhengbaodao/Damansky Island. The third incident took place on 13th August in Xinjiang.

The second incident is in some ways in contention/dispute. In my first source the NSarhive (document no.2) also mentioned the 2nd incident but noted it took place on the 15th March, not 14th as stated in the second source. It also mentioned that the second incident may have involved more men, but was less bloody than the first.

The incident in Xinjiang involved a lot more firepower from the Soviets, where I doubt the same amount of firepower was available to the Chinese.

I am currently under the pump a bit at work, and really shouldnt be on this site during work hours :). But I made the effort of going to a cyber cafe 2nit. So my replies may be few and far between, but I try to be courteous and reply promptly.

I am working nicely on my way to a NQ hill billy tan and a set of raccoon eyes. Too much sun.

I am still digesting your reply Mastermind, hopefully I can give you a reply by Sunday if I am not too hung over from the Moranbah Rodeo this Saturday nit.


It's definitely the only one that got any attention...

But thank you for the link. Interesting.

EDIT:

There was an initial 'ambush' on the Damansky, wherein the Soviets did not dislodge the Chinese, and a much longer, nine hour battle that resulted in (according to Soviet claims) 800 Chinese casualties some two weeks later. That would actually make it far more significant than the fighting in Xinjiang, as your second source only covers Damansky, and your first asserts 'several hundreds' of Soviets in action against '100' Chinese.

My familiarity with the conflict is not total. Maybe I'm missing something. Clarify.

Lokos

[9mmRifle]

I beleive that how China goes economically, so goes much of the western world. How China Negotiates With Kidnappers http://www.rense.com/general78/howchina.htm

[Mastermind]

How China Negotiates With Kidnappers http://www.rense.com/general78/howchina.htm


YEAH! I saw that last night...I was soo GDmnd envious. We ought to be sending our LEAs to China to lap up some of that training and policy.

Of course, in China, no one dares sue the cops, the city, the state....no cops there worry over some scum bag lawyer going to get rich via the public treasury and some pot smoking judge.

[Zerazax]

YEAH! I saw that last night...I was soo GDmnd envious. We ought to be sending our LEAs to China to lap up some of that training and policy.

Of course, in China, no one dares sue the cops, the city, the state....no cops there worry over some scum bag lawyer going to get rich via the public treasury and some pot smoking judge.

heh why do you think china doesn't have many terrorist issues

going to gitmo is paradise compared to being executed on the spot

[Solvent]

YEAH! I saw that last night...I was soo GDmnd envious. We ought to be sending our LEAs to China to lap up some of that training and policy.

Of course, in China, no one dares sue the cops, the city, the state....no cops there worry over some scum bag lawyer going to get rich via the public treasury and some pot smoking judge.

The amazing thing is that kidnapper didn't die. After he got shot in head and fell down from 3 or 4 floors, he survived and was put in jail later.

[manilaboy]

damn! a similar thing happened here in the philippines. a kid was hostage and the negotiators decided to shoot the kidnapper. the shooter was behind a wall, he jumped up and shot the guy's head.,

unfortunately, a few months later, similar thing happens, kidnapping goit out of control and the cops just watched while the kidnapper stabbed a kid to death.

back to topic... china has a lot of issues domestically, the problem they have is that they can not do what the u.s. is doing, they cant divert the attention of their citizens by waging war in 3rd world faraway lands. their foreign relations policy is to be friends with all kinds of government. their president has a lot of work to do to keep his guys satisfied.

[LRPV]

Some insight into how the new regime will be selected and control maintained...


The Australian

Rowan Callick, China correspondent | October 12, 2007

CHINA is in lockdown, waiting excitedly for Monday's opening of the five-yearly communist party congress, which will reveal the country's next generation of leaders.
The future leader is almost certain to be a man in his early 50s, with a PhD, running a major province or city, and with some fluency in English.
The frontrunners, who both fit that description, are Li Keqiang, 52, the party secretary of Liaoning province in the northeast, and Xi Jinping, 54, the party secretary of Shanghai.
Mr Li comes from the communist youth league, which is President Hu Jintao's powerbase. Mr Xi is a "princeling", his father, Xi Zhongxun, being a general and a vice-chairman of the National People's Congress or parliament.
Both have also been governors of other provinces, Mr Li of Henan and Mr Xi of Fujian, as well as party secretary of Zhejiang.
One or both of them are set to be appointed to the standing committee of the Politburo, China's power elite.
This has nine members, but one has died and five of the others are already over 65, and will be over 70 by the time of the next party congress.
Official websites say that "usually" national government leaders, members of the central committee of the party and provincial governors should retire at 65.
Mr Hu, the secretary-general of the party and at the peak of his power, and his premier and effective No2, Wen Jiabao, are both 65.
They will be given enhanced authority and legitimacy by this congress of 2000 party members. Only the propaganda chief Li Changchun, 63, is younger among the standing committee members.
Mr Hu's position is cemented by the dominance within the party of the coalition of powerful groupings in his camp - including the Shandong, Hubei, People's Liberation Army and youth league factions.
This will enable him to replace the remnants of the "Shanghai clique" of his predecessor Jiang Zemin, as well as others who have not embraced his shift of focus in China's development process from the pace to the quality of growth.
Mr Xi replaced earlier this year as party chief in Shanghai the disgraced Chen Liangyu, who has been stripped of his party membership for corruption and faces a criminal trial - a move that underlined Mr Hu's control even in his rivals' heartland.
The situation in China is the reverse of that in the US, where a re-elected president often becomes a lame duck in his second term. In China, the second five-year term is when the leader gets to line up the ducks and score successes.
Mr Jiang, whom Mr Hu replaced as party leader, president and chairman of the military commission, was effectively appointed by Deng Xiaoping, and had to consult him and other party veterans.
That "Long March" generation has all but disappeared, and Mr Hu can claim legitimacy from the structures of the party that he dominates, without needing to defer to anyone. More recently retired leaders such as Qiao Shi and Li Peng, former heads of the NPC, carry little clout.
Mr Hu's philosophical stance, pursuing a "harmonious society", owes more to Confucius than to Mao Zedong or Karl Marx. The party has already announced that the congress will next week enshrine this thrust in its constitution.
In organisational terms, Mr Hu remains cautious, although there is fierce speculation about whether he will introduce greater "intra-party democracy" by making more positions within the party contestable.
Jean-Christophe Iseux, the first foreigner - a Frenchman, soon to be a Canadian citizen - to become a formal adviser to the central committee of the party, said "Hu will be, on a par with Deng, the most powerful leader in China since Mao".
Professor Iseux said this would enable him to reduce the size of the standing committee, perhaps to seven, tightening his control further.
Other changes will follow. About 30 to 50 per cent of the central committee of the party, comprising 200 people with a further 100 alternative members, usually turns around every congress.
And there will be a big reshuffle among the party secretaries - the top people - in each province and municipality, and later among the governors and mayors who comprise the heads of the government structures in the regions.
The next annual NPC meeting, in March, will see a further consolidation of the power of Mr Hu and Mr Wen, in personnel shifts and structural changes in the ministries and other central government institutions.
Mr Hu is unlikely to make a formal announcement on which of the new members of the standing committee he is lining up for his own job when he steps down in five years. But this will become clear soon - possibly by the organisational portfolios they are given.
The process remains uncertain. Mr Hu was himself nominated by Deng Xiaoping to succeed Mr Jiang, and his say is expected to be final.
But he might seek to involve abroader group in choosing between candidates that he approves.
The party's central committee has been meeting this week in Beijing to finalise the agenda, including the reshuffle at the top in the standing committee, but Mr Hu's dominance, combined with even tighter than usual media controls, have ensured that nothing substantial has been leaked.