Kosovo: history is indigestible

[Fullaut0]

I think history is indigestible because it seems to keep repeating itself like some sort of God awful reflux.

From the Australian:


A crisis of West's own making


Neil Clark | December 24, 2007

POWERFUL Western nations make threats to Serbia. Serbia, backed by Russia, ignores the ultimatums. A war ensues. That was the scenario in the summer of 1914, when the world plunged into the war to end all wars. Nearly a century on, the situation is uncannily similar.
Despite Western threats for it to accept Kosovan independence, Belgrade is standing firm. Serbian armed forces are on standby to reclaim the province by force if necessary. Russia has promised Serbia its support.
If war does follow, then Serbia will no doubt be blamed by Western governments for not toeing the line. But it would be an unfair judgment.
The present crisis in Kosovo has been caused not so much by Serbian intransigence, but by the West's policy of intervention in the internal affairs of sovereign states, which, over the past decade has caused chaos, not only in the Balkans, but across the globe.
Ten years ago, Kosovo was at relative peace. Albanian demands for independence from Belgrade were being channeled through the peaceful Democratic League party of Ibrahim Rugova, while the small groups of Albanian paramilitaries that did exist were isolated and had little public support.
According to a report by Jane's intelligence agency in 1996, the Kosovo Liberation Army, the most extreme of Albanian paramilitary groups, does not take into consideration the political or economic importance of its victims, nor does it seem at all capable of hurting its enemy.
It has not come close to challenging the region's balance of military power. As late as November 1997, the KLA, officially classified by the US as a terrorist organisation, could, it has been estimated, call on the services of only 200 men.
Then, in a policy shift whose repercussions we are witnessing today, the West started to interfere big time. The US, Germany and Britain increasingly saw the KLA as a proxy force which could help them achieve their goal of destabilising and eventually removing from power the regime of Slobodan Milosevic, which showed no inclination to join Euro-Atlantic structures.
Over the following year, the KLA underwent a drastic makeover. The group was taken off the US State Department's list of terrorist organisations and, as with the Mujahideen in Afghanistan a decade or so earlier, became fully fledged freedom fighters.
Large-scale assistance was given to the KLA by Western security forces. Britain organised secret training camps in northern Albania. The German secret service provided uniforms, weapons and instructors.
The Sunday Times in Britain published a report stating that American intelligence agents admitted they helped to train the KLA before NATO's bombing of Yugoslavia. Meanwhile, Rugova's Democratic League, which supported negotiations with Belgrade, was given the cold shoulder.
When the KLA's campaign of violence, directed not only against Yugoslav state officials, Serb civilians and Albanian collaborators who did not support their extremist agenda, led to a military response from Belgrade, the British and Americans were ready to hand out the ultimatums.
During the 79-day NATO bombing of Yugoslavia that followed, the West made promises of independence to the KLA which, eight years on, are coming back to haunt them.
Recognising an independent Kosovo will push Serbia from the Western orbit as well as creating a real chance of war. And it will set a precedent: if the rights of self-determination for Kosovan Albanians are to be acknowledged, then what about the rights of self-determination for Serbs in Bosnia, who wish to join Serbia?
Doing a U-turn, and attempting to get independence postponed, runs the risk of violence from Kosovo's Albanian majority. It's an almighty mess, but one of the West's own making.
Had it not intervened in Yugoslav internal affairs 10 years ago, it is likely a peaceful compromise to the Kosovan problem would eventually have been found between the government in Belgrade and the Democratic League. Rugova's goal was independence for Kosovo from Serbia, but only with the agreement of all parties.
What is certain is that without Western patronage the KLA would never have grown to the force it eventually became.
By championing the most hardline force in Kosovo, the West not only helped precipitate war, but made the issue of Kosovo much harder to solve.
It is ironic that for supporters of liberal intervention, Western actions in Kosovo are still seen to have been a great success. It was at the height of the NATO bombing campaign against Yugoslavia in 1999 that the then British prime minister, Tony Blair, made his famous speech at Chicago in which he outlined his doctrine of the international community.
Blair argued that the principle of non-interference in the affairs of sovereign states - long considered an important principle of international order - should be subject to revision. "I say to you: never fall again for the doctrine of isolationism," Blair pleaded.
But after surveying the global debris of a decade of Western interference, from the Balkans to Afghanistan and Iraq, is it any wonder that isolationism and observing the principle of non-interference in the affairs of sovereign states again seems so appealing?
Neil Clark, a regular contributor to The Spectator and The Guardian in Britain, teaches international relations at Oxford Tutorial College.

Once GW is out of office we may well enter a new phase of isolationism but I doubt it.

At any rate, and getting back to the subject of Kosovo, I'll refrain from being an apologist for the Serbs and the way they conducted themselves militarily. I will say this though: either way it's going to be ugly.

Maybe the region should just be left to itself to find it's own equilibrium considering that there are other, more pressing, issues to be dealt with in the world today.

[Lt. James Anderson]

Nearly a century on, the situation is uncannily similar.

In a way yes, but ... not really. Back then Serbia had maybe the most hardcore army in the world (fought three wars in a row and kicked some serious azz).

What they have today is just the YPA (Yugoslav People's Army aka Tito's partisans armed with modern weapons) renamed as "The Serbian Army" ... even as guerrilla's they weren't that good, but as the conventional military force they suck azz (just my opinion). Incapable of decisive military action on strategic and operational level. However, they did all right during the NATO campaign, but IMO that had more to do with capable individuals and their own initiative than the army as a whole.

[limbic]

Interesting to contrast this with Strafor's recent assessement.

From: Stratfor: Geopolitical Intelligence Report - December 18, 2007 and George Friedman's blog: (http://blogs.stratfor.com/friedman/2007/12/18/russia-kosovo-and-the-asymmetry-of-perceptions/)

Russia: Kosovo and the Asymmetry of Perceptions by George Friedman

Kosovo appears to be an archaic topic. The Yugoslavian question was a 1990s issue, while the Kosovo issue has appeared to be one of those conflicts that never quite goes away but isn't regarded very seriously by the international community. You hear about it but you don't care about it. However, Kosovo is getting very serious again.

The United States and Europe appear committed to making Kosovo, now a province of Serbia, an independent state. Of course, Serbia opposes this, but more important, so does Russia. Russia opposed the original conflict, but at that point it was weak and its wishes were irrelevant. Russia opposes independence for Kosovo now, and it is far from the weak state it was in 1999 -- and is not likely to take this quietly. Kosovo's potential as a flash point between Russia and the West makes it important again. Let's therefore review the action to this point.

In 1999, NATO, led by the United States, conducted a 60-day bombing campaign against Yugoslavia and its main component, Serbia. The issue was the charge that Yugoslavia was sponsoring the mass murder of ethnic Albanians in Kosovo, just as it had against Bosnian Muslims. The campaign aimed to force the Yugoslav army out of Kosovo while allowing a NATO force to occupy and administer the province.

Two strands led to this action. The first was the fear that the demonstrable atrocities committed by Serbs in Bosnia were being repeated in Kosovo. The second was the general feeling dominant in the 1990s that the international community's primary task was dealing with rogue states behaving in ways that violated international norms. In other words, it was assumed that there was a general international consensus on how the world should look, that the United States was the leader of this international consensus and that there was no power that could threaten the United States or the unity of the vision. There were only weak, isolated rogue states that had to be dealt with. There was no real risk attached to these operations. Yugoslavia was identified as one of those rogue states. The United States, without the United Nations but with the backing of most European countries, dealt with it.

There was no question that Serbs committed massive atrocities in Bosnia, and that Bosnians and Croats carried out massive atrocities against Serbs. These atrocities occurred in the context of Yugoslavia's explosion after the end of the Cold War. Yugoslavia had been part of an arc running from the Danube to the Hindu Kush, frozen into place by the Cold War. Muslims had been divided by the line, with some living in the former Soviet Union but most on the other side. The Yugoslav state consisted of Catholics, Orthodox Christians and Muslims; it was communist but anti-Soviet and cooperated with the United States. It was an artificial state imposed on multiple nationalities by the victors of World War I and held in place after World War II by the force field created by U.S.-Soviet power. When the Soviets fell, the force field collapsed and Yugoslavia detonated, followed later by the rest of the arc.

The NATO mission, then, was to stabilize the western end of this arc, Yugoslavia. The strategy was to abolish the multinational state created after World War I and replace it with a series of nation-states -- such as Slovenia and Macedonia -- built around a coherent national unit. This would stabilize Yugoslavia. The problem with this plan was that each nation-state would contain substantial ethnic minorities, regardless of attempts to redraw the borders. Thus, Bosnia contains Serbs. But the theory was that small states overwhelmingly consisting of one nationality could remain stable in the face of ethnic diversity so long as there was a dominant nation -- unlike Yugoslavia, where there was no central national grouping.

So NATO decided to re-engineer the Balkans much as they were re-engineered after World War I. NATO and the United States got caught in a weird intellectual trap. On the one hand, there was an absolute consensus that the post-World War II borders of Europe were sacrosanct. If that wasn't the case, then Hungarians living in Romanian Transylvania might want to rejoin Hungary, Turkish regions of Cyprus might want to join Turkey, Germany might want to reclaim Silesia and Northern Ireland might want to secede from the United Kingdom. All hell could break loose, and one of the ways Europe avoided hell after 1945 was a cardinal rule: No borders would shift.

The re-engineering of Yugoslavia was not seen as changing borders. Rather, it was seen as eliminating a completely artificial state and freeing genuine nations to have their own states. But it was assumed that the historic borders of those states could not be changed merely because of the presence of other ethnic groups concentrated in a region. So the desire of Bosnian Serbs to join Serbia was rejected, both because of the atrocious behavior of the Bosnian Serbs and because it would have shifted the historic borders of Bosnia. If all of this seems a bit tortured, please recall the hubris of the West in the 1990s. Anything was possible, including re-engineering the land of the south Slavs, as Yugoslavia's name translates in English.

In all of this, Serbia was seen as the problem. Rather than viewing Yugoslavia as a general failed project, Serbia was seen not so much as part of the failure but as an intrinsically egregious actor that had to be treated differently than the rest, given its behavior, particularly against the Bosnians. When it appeared that the Serbs were repeating their actions in Bosnia against Albanian Muslims in 1999, the United States and other NATO allies felt they had to intervene.

In fact, the level of atrocities in Kosovo never approached what happened in Bosnia, nor what the Clinton administration said was going on before and during the war. At one point, it was said that hundreds of thousands of men were missing, and later that 10,000 had been killed and bodies were being dissolved in acid. The post-war analysis never revealed any atrocities on this order of magnitude. But that was not the point. The point was that the United States had shifted to a post-Cold War attitude, and that since there were no real threats against the United States, the primary mission of foreign policy was dealing with minor rogue states, preventing genocide and re-engineering unstable regions. People have sought explanations for the Kosovo war in vast and complex conspiracies. The fact is that the motivation was a complex web of domestic political concerns and a genuine belief that the primary mission was to improve the world.

The United States dealt with its concerns over Kosovo by conducting a 60-day bombing campaign designed to force Yugoslavia to withdraw from Kosovo and allow NATO forces in. The Yugoslav government, effectively the same as the Serbian government by then, showed remarkable resilience, and the air campaign was not nearly as effective as the air forces had hoped. The United States needed a war-ending strategy. This is where the Russians came in.

Russia was weak and ineffective, but it was Serbia's only major ally. The United States prevailed on the Russians to initiate diplomatic contacts and persuade the Serbs that their position was isolated and hopeless. The carrot was that the United State agreed that Russian peacekeeping troops would participate in Kosovo. This was crucial for the Serbians, as it seemed to guarantee the interests of Serbia in Kosovo, as well as the rights of Serbs living in Kosovo. The deal brokered by the Russians called for a withdrawal of the Serbian army from Kosovo and entry into Kosovo of a joint NATO-Russian force, with the Russians guaranteeing that Kosovo would remain part of Serbia.

This ended the war, but the Russians were never permitted -- let alone encouraged -- to take their role in Serbia. The Russians were excluded from the Kosovo Force (KFOR) decision-making process and were isolated from NATO's main force. When Russian troops took control of the airport in Pristina in Kosovo at the end of the war, they were surrounded by NATO troops.

In effect, NATO and the United States reneged on their agreement with Russia. Russian President Boris Yeltsin and the Russian Foreign Ministry caved in the face of this reneging, leaving the Russian military -- which had ordered the Kosovo intervention -- hanging. In 1999, this was a fairly risk-free move by the West. The Russians were in no position to act.

The degree to which Yeltsin's humiliation in Kosovo led to the rise of Vladimir Putin is not fully understood. Putin represented a faction in the intelligence-military community that regarded Kosovo as the last straw. There were, of course, other important factors leading to the rise of Putin, but the Russian perception that the United States had double-crossed them in an act of supreme contempt was a significant factor. Putin came to office committed to regaining Russian intellectual influence after Yeltsin's inertia.

The current decision by the United States and some European countries to grant independence to Kosovo must be viewed in this context. First, it is the only case in Yugoslavia in which borders are to shift because of the presence of a minority. Second, it continues the policy of re-engineering Yugoslavia. Third, it proceeds without either a U.N. or NATO mandate, as an action supported by independent nations -- including the United States and Germany. Finally, it flies in the face of Russian wishes.

This last one is the critical point. The Russians clearly are concerned that this would open the door for the further redrawing of borders, paving the way for Chechen independence movements, for example. But that isn't the real issue. The real issue is that Serbia is an ally of Russia, and the Russians do not want Kosovar independence to happen. From Putin's point of view, he came to power because the West simply wouldn't take Russian wishes seriously. If there were a repeat of that display of indifference, his own authority would be seriously weakened.

Putin is rebuilding the Russian sphere of influence in the former Soviet Union. He is meeting with the Belarusians over reintegration. He is warning Ukraine not to flirt with NATO membership. He is reasserting Russian power in the Caucasus and Central Asia. His theme is simple: Russia is near and strong; NATO is far away and weak. He is trying to define Russian power in the region. Though Kosovo is admittedly peripheral to this region, if no European power is willing to openly challenge Russian troops in Kosovo, then Russia will have succeeded in portraying NATO as a weak and unreliable force.

If the United States and some European powers can create an independent Kosovo without regard to Russian wishes, Putin's prestige in Russia and the psychological foundations of his grand strategy will suffer a huge blow. If Kosovo is granted independence outside the context of the United Nations, where Russia has veto power, he will be facing the same crisis Yeltsin did. If he repeats Yeltsin's capitulation, he will face substantial consequences. Putin and the Russians repeatedly have warned that they wouldn't accept independence for Kosovo, and that such an act would lead to an uncontrollable crisis. Thus far, the Western powers involved appear to have dismissed this. In our view, they shouldn't. It is not so much what Putin wants as the consequences for Putin if he does not act. He cannot afford to acquiesce. He will create a crisis.

Putin has two levers. One is economic. The natural gas flowing to Europe, particularly to Germany, is critical for the Europeans. Putin has a large war chest saved from high energy prices. He can live without exports longer than the Germans can live without imports. It is assumed that he wouldn't carry out this cutoff. This assumption does not take into account how important the Kosovo issue is to the Russians.

The second option is what we might call the "light military" option. Assume that Putin would send a battalion or two of troops by air to Belgrade, load them onto trucks and send them toward Pristina, claiming this as Russia's right under agreements made in 1999. Assume a squadron of Russian aircraft would be sent to Belgrade as well. A Russian naval squadron, including the aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov, already is headed to the Mediterranean . Obviously, this is not a force that could impose anything on NATO. But would the Germans, for example, be prepared to open fire on these troops?

If that happened, there are other areas of interest to Russia and the West where Russia could exert decisive military power, such as the Baltic states. If Russian troops were to enter the Baltics, would NATO rush reinforcements there to fight them? The Russian light military threat in Kosovo is that any action there could lead to a Russian reaction elsewhere.

The re-engineering of the Balkans always has assumed that there is no broader geopolitical price involved. Granting Kosovo independence would put Russia in a position in which interests that it regards as fundamental are challenged. Even if the West doesn't see why this should be the case, the Russians have made clear that it is so -- and have made statements essentially locking themselves into a response or forcing themselves to accept humiliation. Re-engineering a region where there is no risk is one thing; re-engineering a region where there is substantial risk is another.

In our view, the Russians would actually welcome a crisis. Putin wants to demonstrate that Russia is a great power. That would influence thinking throughout the former Soviet Union, sobering eastern Central Europe as well -- and Poland in particular. Confronting the West as an equal and backing it into a corner is exactly what he would like. In our view, Putin will seize the Kosovo issue not because it is of value in and of itself but because it gives him a platform to move his strategic policy forward.

The Germans have neither the resources nor the appetite for such a crisis. The Americans, bogged down in the Islamic world, are hardly in a position to deal with a crisis over Kosovo. The Russian view is that the West has not reviewed its policies in the Balkans since 1999 and has not grasped that the geopolitics of the situation have changed. Nor, in our view, has Washington or Berlin grasped that a confrontation is exactly what the Russians are looking for.

We expect the West to postpone independence again, and to keep postponing it. But the Albanians might force the issue by declaring unilateral independence. The Russians would actually be delighted to see this. But here is the basic fact: For the United States and its allies, Kosovo is a side issue of no great importance. For the Russians, it is both a hot-button issue and a strategic opportunity. The Russians won't roll over this time. And the asymmetry of perceptions is what crises are made of.

I believe Friedman is underestimating the EU's resolve under a Sarkozy/Merkel leadership.

This is not just a make-or-break moment for Putin, but for the EU too.

If the EU capitulates over Kosovo, it will open it up to Russian bullying and domination for a generation. And this time the Americans will not come to the rescue. Why would they bail out a continent that openly detests them?

[KninGrad]

In a way yes, but ... not really. Back then Serbia had maybe the most hardcore army in the world (fought three wars in a row and kicked some serious azz).

What they have today is just the YPA (Yugoslav People's Army aka Tito's partisans armed with modern weapons) renamed as "The Serbian Army" ... even as guerrilla's they weren't that good, but as the conventional military force they suck azz (just my opinion). Incapable of decisive military action on strategic and operational level. However, they did all right during the NATO campaign, but IMO that had more to do with capable individuals and their own initiative than the army as a whole.


Well I cant really agree with u on current state of Serbian army because we don't really know that. They did pretty well in Kosovo fighting "KLA" and in Kosare versus "KLA", albanian army and brits.
We must keep in mind that Serbian army was not fighting in Bosnia and Croatia where 90% of soldiers consisted of local population.

[Lt. James Anderson]

We must keep in mind that Serbian army was not fighting in Bosnia and Croatia where 90% of soldiers consisted of local population.

Those locals were Serbs, right? That means the same people, the same equipment, the same leadership (trained at the YPA' s Military Academy of Belgrade) etc. What is called "The Army of Serbia" today was the same army that fought at Vukovaw in 1991 and they didn't any better than the local Serbs in the Krajina region or Bosnia.

[Milepitopet]

They did pretty well in Kosovo fighting "KLA" and in Kosare versus "KLA", albanian army and brits.
What are you talking about? They got raped in Kosare and even worse in the incursion they made in Kukes. What do the brits have to do with anything?

[emiljoe]

Interesting to contrast this with Strafor's recent assessement.

From: Stratfor: Geopolitical Intelligence Report - December 18, 2007 and George Friedman's blog: (http://blogs.stratfor.com/friedman/2007/12/18/russia-kosovo-and-the-asymmetry-of-perceptions/)
Russia: Kosovo and the Asymmetry of Perceptions by George Friedman

Kosovo appears to be an archaic topic. The Yugoslavian question was a 1990s issue, while the Kosovo issue has appeared to be one of those conflicts that never quite goes away but isn't regarded very seriously by the international community. You hear about it but you don't care about it. However, Kosovo is getting very serious again.

The United States and Europe appear committed to making Kosovo, now a province of Serbia, an independent state. Of course, Serbia opposes this, but more important, so does Russia. Russia opposed the original conflict, but at that point it was weak and its wishes were irrelevant. Russia opposes independence for Kosovo now, and it is far from the weak state it was in 1999 -- and is not likely to take this quietly. Kosovo's potential as a flash point between Russia and the West makes it important again. Let's therefore review the action to this point.

In 1999, NATO, led by the United States, conducted a 60-day bombing campaign against Yugoslavia and its main component, Serbia. The issue was the charge that Yugoslavia was sponsoring the mass murder of ethnic Albanians in Kosovo, just as it had against Bosnian Muslims. The campaign aimed to force the Yugoslav army out of Kosovo while allowing a NATO force to occupy and administer the province.

Two strands led to this action. The first was the fear that the demonstrable atrocities committed by Serbs in Bosnia were being repeated in Kosovo. The second was the general feeling dominant in the 1990s that the international community's primary task was dealing with rogue states behaving in ways that violated international norms. In other words, it was assumed that there was a general international consensus on how the world should look, that the United States was the leader of this international consensus and that there was no power that could threaten the United States or the unity of the vision. There were only weak, isolated rogue states that had to be dealt with. There was no real risk attached to these operations. Yugoslavia was identified as one of those rogue states. The United States, without the United Nations but with the backing of most European countries, dealt with it.

There was no question that Serbs committed massive atrocities in Bosnia, and that Bosnians and Croats carried out massive atrocities against Serbs. These atrocities occurred in the context of Yugoslavia's explosion after the end of the Cold War. Yugoslavia had been part of an arc running from the Danube to the Hindu Kush, frozen into place by the Cold War. Muslims had been divided by the line, with some living in the former Soviet Union but most on the other side. The Yugoslav state consisted of Catholics, Orthodox Christians and Muslims; it was communist but anti-Soviet and cooperated with the United States. It was an artificial state imposed on multiple nationalities by the victors of World War I and held in place after World War II by the force field created by U.S.-Soviet power. When the Soviets fell, the force field collapsed and Yugoslavia detonated, followed later by the rest of the arc.

The NATO mission, then, was to stabilize the western end of this arc, Yugoslavia. The strategy was to abolish the multinational state created after World War I and replace it with a series of nation-states -- such as Slovenia and Macedonia -- built around a coherent national unit. This would stabilize Yugoslavia. The problem with this plan was that each nation-state would contain substantial ethnic minorities, regardless of attempts to redraw the borders. Thus, Bosnia contains Serbs. But the theory was that small states overwhelmingly consisting of one nationality could remain stable in the face of ethnic diversity so long as there was a dominant nation -- unlike Yugoslavia, where there was no central national grouping.

So NATO decided to re-engineer the Balkans much as they were re-engineered after World War I. NATO and the United States got caught in a weird intellectual trap. On the one hand, there was an absolute consensus that the post-World War II borders of Europe were sacrosanct. If that wasn't the case, then Hungarians living in Romanian Transylvania might want to rejoin Hungary, Turkish regions of Cyprus might want to join Turkey, Germany might want to reclaim Silesia and Northern Ireland might want to secede from the United Kingdom. All hell could break loose, and one of the ways Europe avoided hell after 1945 was a cardinal rule: No borders would shift.

The re-engineering of Yugoslavia was not seen as changing borders. Rather, it was seen as eliminating a completely artificial state and freeing genuine nations to have their own states. But it was assumed that the historic borders of those states could not be changed merely because of the presence of other ethnic groups concentrated in a region. So the desire of Bosnian Serbs to join Serbia was rejected, both because of the atrocious behavior of the Bosnian Serbs and because it would have shifted the historic borders of Bosnia. If all of this seems a bit tortured, please recall the hubris of the West in the 1990s. Anything was possible, including re-engineering the land of the south Slavs, as Yugoslavia's name translates in English.

In all of this, Serbia was seen as the problem. Rather than viewing Yugoslavia as a general failed project, Serbia was seen not so much as part of the failure but as an intrinsically egregious actor that had to be treated differently than the rest, given its behavior, particularly against the Bosnians. When it appeared that the Serbs were repeating their actions in Bosnia against Albanian Muslims in 1999, the United States and other NATO allies felt they had to intervene.

In fact, the level of atrocities in Kosovo never approached what happened in Bosnia, nor what the Clinton administration said was going on before and during the war. At one point, it was said that hundreds of thousands of men were missing, and later that 10,000 had been killed and bodies were being dissolved in acid. The post-war analysis never revealed any atrocities on this order of magnitude. But that was not the point. The point was that the United States had shifted to a post-Cold War attitude, and that since there were no real threats against the United States, the primary mission of foreign policy was dealing with minor rogue states, preventing genocide and re-engineering unstable regions. People have sought explanations for the Kosovo war in vast and complex conspiracies. The fact is that the motivation was a complex web of domestic political concerns and a genuine belief that the primary mission was to improve the world.

The United States dealt with its concerns over Kosovo by conducting a 60-day bombing campaign designed to force Yugoslavia to withdraw from Kosovo and allow NATO forces in. The Yugoslav government, effectively the same as the Serbian government by then, showed remarkable resilience, and the air campaign was not nearly as effective as the air forces had hoped. The United States needed a war-ending strategy. This is where the Russians came in.

Russia was weak and ineffective, but it was Serbia's only major ally. The United States prevailed on the Russians to initiate diplomatic contacts and persuade the Serbs that their position was isolated and hopeless. The carrot was that the United State agreed that Russian peacekeeping troops would participate in Kosovo. This was crucial for the Serbians, as it seemed to guarantee the interests of Serbia in Kosovo, as well as the rights of Serbs living in Kosovo. The deal brokered by the Russians called for a withdrawal of the Serbian army from Kosovo and entry into Kosovo of a joint NATO-Russian force, with the Russians guaranteeing that Kosovo would remain part of Serbia.

This ended the war, but the Russians were never permitted -- let alone encouraged -- to take their role in Serbia. The Russians were excluded from the Kosovo Force (KFOR) decision-making process and were isolated from NATO's main force. When Russian troops took control of the airport in Pristina in Kosovo at the end of the war, they were surrounded by NATO troops.

In effect, NATO and the United States reneged on their agreement with Russia. Russian President Boris Yeltsin and the Russian Foreign Ministry caved in the face of this reneging, leaving the Russian military -- which had ordered the Kosovo intervention -- hanging. In 1999, this was a fairly risk-free move by the West. The Russians were in no position to act.

The degree to which Yeltsin's humiliation in Kosovo led to the rise of Vladimir Putin is not fully understood. Putin represented a faction in the intelligence-military community that regarded Kosovo as the last straw. There were, of course, other important factors leading to the rise of Putin, but the Russian perception that the United States had double-crossed them in an act of supreme contempt was a significant factor. Putin came to office committed to regaining Russian intellectual influence after Yeltsin's inertia.

The current decision by the United States and some European countries to grant independence to Kosovo must be viewed in this context. First, it is the only case in Yugoslavia in which borders are to shift because of the presence of a minority. Second, it continues the policy of re-engineering Yugoslavia. Third, it proceeds without either a U.N. or NATO mandate, as an action supported by independent nations -- including the United States and Germany. Finally, it flies in the face of Russian wishes.

This last one is the critical point. The Russians clearly are concerned that this would open the door for the further redrawing of borders, paving the way for Chechen independence movements, for example. But that isn't the real issue. The real issue is that Serbia is an ally of Russia, and the Russians do not want Kosovar independence to happen. From Putin's point of view, he came to power because the West simply wouldn't take Russian wishes seriously. If there were a repeat of that display of indifference, his own authority would be seriously weakened.

Putin is rebuilding the Russian sphere of influence in the former Soviet Union. He is meeting with the Belarusians over reintegration. He is warning Ukraine not to flirt with NATO membership. He is reasserting Russian power in the Caucasus and Central Asia. His theme is simple: Russia is near and strong; NATO is far away and weak. He is trying to define Russian power in the region. Though Kosovo is admittedly peripheral to this region, if no European power is willing to openly challenge Russian troops in Kosovo, then Russia will have succeeded in portraying NATO as a weak and unreliable force.

If the United States and some European powers can create an independent Kosovo without regard to Russian wishes, Putin's prestige in Russia and the psychological foundations of his grand strategy will suffer a huge blow. If Kosovo is granted independence outside the context of the United Nations, where Russia has veto power, he will be facing the same crisis Yeltsin did. If he repeats Yeltsin's capitulation, he will face substantial consequences. Putin and the Russians repeatedly have warned that they wouldn't accept independence for Kosovo, and that such an act would lead to an uncontrollable crisis. Thus far, the Western powers involved appear to have dismissed this. In our view, they shouldn't. It is not so much what Putin wants as the consequences for Putin if he does not act. He cannot afford to acquiesce. He will create a crisis.

Putin has two levers. One is economic. The natural gas flowing to Europe, particularly to Germany, is critical for the Europeans. Putin has a large war chest saved from high energy prices. He can live without exports longer than the Germans can live without imports. It is assumed that he wouldn't carry out this cutoff. This assumption does not take into account how important the Kosovo issue is to the Russians.

The second option is what we might call the "light military" option. Assume that Putin would send a battalion or two of troops by air to Belgrade, load them onto trucks and send them toward Pristina, claiming this as Russia's right under agreements made in 1999. Assume a squadron of Russian aircraft would be sent to Belgrade as well. A Russian naval squadron, including the aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov, already is headed to the Mediterranean . Obviously, this is not a force that could impose anything on NATO. But would the Germans, for example, be prepared to open fire on these troops?

If that happened, there are other areas of interest to Russia and the West where Russia could exert decisive military power, such as the Baltic states. If Russian troops were to enter the Baltics, would NATO rush reinforcements there to fight them? The Russian light military threat in Kosovo is that any action there could lead to a Russian reaction elsewhere.

The re-engineering of the Balkans always has assumed that there is no broader geopolitical price involved. Granting Kosovo independence would put Russia in a position in which interests that it regards as fundamental are challenged. Even if the West doesn't see why this should be the case, the Russians have made clear that it is so -- and have made statements essentially locking themselves into a response or forcing themselves to accept humiliation. Re-engineering a region where there is no risk is one thing; re-engineering a region where there is substantial risk is another.

In our view, the Russians would actually welcome a crisis. Putin wants to demonstrate that Russia is a great power. That would influence thinking throughout the former Soviet Union, sobering eastern Central Europe as well -- and Poland in particular. Confronting the West as an equal and backing it into a corner is exactly what he would like. In our view, Putin will seize the Kosovo issue not because it is of value in and of itself but because it gives him a platform to move his strategic policy forward.

The Germans have neither the resources nor the appetite for such a crisis. The Americans, bogged down in the Islamic world, are hardly in a position to deal with a crisis over Kosovo. The Russian view is that the West has not reviewed its policies in the Balkans since 1999 and has not grasped that the geopolitics of the situation have changed. Nor, in our view, has Washington or Berlin grasped that a confrontation is exactly what the Russians are looking for.

We expect the West to postpone independence again, and to keep postponing it. But the Albanians might force the issue by declaring unilateral independence. The Russians would actually be delighted to see this. But here is the basic fact: For the United States and its allies, Kosovo is a side issue of no great importance. For the Russians, it is both a hot-button issue and a strategic opportunity. The Russians won't roll over this time. And the asymmetry of perceptions is what crises are made of.

I believe Friedman is underestimating the EU's resolve under a Sarkozy/Merkel leadership.

This is not just a make-or-break moment for Putin, but for the EU too.

If the EU capitulates over Kosovo, it will open it up to Russian bullying and domination for a generation. And this time the Americans will not come to the rescue. Why would they bail out a continent that openly detests them?


The E.U. lead by Germany caused the break up of Yugoslavia by recognizing the former Nazi puppet Croatia. America & Britain shamefully helped Germany's support to the terrorist KLA! :fork:

[V.I.D.]

Those locals were Serbs, right? That means the same people, the same equipment, the same leadership (trained at the YPA' s Military Academy of Belgrade) etc. What is called "The Army of Serbia" today was the same army that fought at Vukovaw in 1991 and they didn't any better than the local Serbs in the Krajina region or Bosnia.
__________________________________________________________________

No, sir, you are talking about one minor part of the same people (who were constantly back-stabbed by Milosevic and did not have any unity or enough support by Belgrade - not to mention the political games involved). The same applies to Vukovar, there was confused ex-commie YPA without the real goal or strategy and bunch of untrained and drunken paramilitaries (White Eagles, Seseljevci, etc.),.
However, when it comes to Kosovo, I think you're horribly underestimating Serbian unity and decisiveness on this one, with or without the Russian support.

As for the guy talking about Kosare and "getting Serbs' asses kicked".....well, perhaps Lokos could tell him more about it p-)

[zg18]

They did pretty well in Kosovo fighting "KLA" and in Kosare versus "KLA", albanian army and brits.




What are you talking about? They got raped in Kosare and even worse in the incursion they made in Kukes. What do the brits have to do with anything?


Koshare was nothing special,both sides spread BS about this,only interesting is when KLA captured the station NATO airstrike killed between 10-30 KLA fighters ("frendly fire")

[limbic]

Those locals were Serbs, right? That means the same people, the same equipment, the same leadership (trained at the YPA' s Military Academy of Belgrade) etc. What is called "The Army of Serbia" today was the same army that fought at Vukovaw in 1991 and they didn't any better than the local Serbs in the Krajina region or Bosnia.

James you are way off here.

The old JNA was made up of every ethnic group in the old Yugoslavia. One of the ironies of the beginning of the Bosnian was was that often it was Albanian units in the JNA fighting Bosnian or Croatian militias.

As for Bosnian Serbs Army in the Bosnian civil war, they were mostly militias too and completely unrelated to the armed forces of the Republic of Serbia. This is a common mistake that everyone makes - namely conflating Republika Srpska and Bosnian Serbs with Serbia proper, the Republic of Serbia.

Additionally, as noted elsewhere, the Bosnian Serb forces were completely cut off by Milosevic and NATO was acting as the air wing of the Muslim and Croat forces so that by 1995 they were fighting at a considerable military disadvantage and fought very well despite it. They are no indicator at all of the fighting capabilities of today's Serbian army and never have been.

Operation Storm tells us nothing about the state of the Serbian army now or then. Storm was the US planned retaking of the breakaway Krajina region of Croatia (Krajina was exactly the same as Kosovo, but Serbs were the local majority instead of Albanians, and we all know the bad guys are, right?). It would be like saying judging Albanian army based on the performance of the KLA in Macedonia.

As for Kosovo, I personally doubt the KLA were any match for the regular Serbian Army (maybe conscript units or Police). I think it is pretty clear that the Serbian forces were successfully destroying the KLA insurgency and that is precisely why they switched to the "Come and rescue us" gambit of persuading the USA and NATO into intervention.

[Milepitopet]

As for Kosovo, I personally doubt the KLA were any match for the regular Serbian Army (maybe conscript units or Police). I think it is pretty clear that the Serbian forces were successfully destroying the KLA insurgency and that is precisely why they switched to the "Come and rescue us" gambit of persuading the USA and NATO into intervention.
Aww cry me a river

[KninGrad]

"(Krajina was exactly the same as Kosovo, but Serbs were the local majority instead of Albanians, and we all know the bad guys are, right?)"

Actually Limbic its not the same. Many people are forgetting that Croatia was the country of 2 constitutive people (Serbs and Croats). Then Tudjman came to power and decided to label Croatia as Croatian and Serbs as national minority. You see many people forget that.

On the other hand Albanians were always a minority.

[Lokos]

What are you talking about? They got raped in Kosare and even worse in the incursion they made in Kukes.

About a dozen Albanian members, so far, have been banned for flaming on the issue of Kosovo. You seem to desire a similar exit strategy.

In any case, at Koshare we most certainly were not 'raped'. The fighting there was a defensive success of some note - major casualties were inflicted on infiltrating KLA units and their Albanian backers, for a relatively minor price.

I'm unsure what you think happened at Kukes... I don't particularly care, either. Albanian fantasies about the effectiveness of the KLA are on a terminal decline on my list of priorities.

For total Serbian casualties:

Names of those killed 1.1.1998-10.6.1999 http://www.media.srbija.sr.gov.yu/medsrp/dokumenti/ubijeni_0198-0699.pdf

Includes civilians of all nationalities, MUP (military police and ministry of the interior officers) and VJ (Army of Yugoslavia) dead.

Names of those kidnapped and missing 1.1.1998-10.6.1999 http://www.media.srbija.sr.gov.yu/medsrp/dokumenti/oteti_nestali_0198-0699.pdf

Same as above.

Someone once claimed that ~175 Serbian servicemen were killed during the Koshare operations. That would mean approximately one third of all Serbian military casualties were incurred there. Every name is listed, with the most accurate possible description of the manner of death, the date and the location.

Lokos

[boreal]

In this issue, I´m definitelly on the serbian side.

[Mundzos]

[quote=limbic;2948713]James you are way off here.

The old JNA was made up of every ethnic group in the old Yugoslavia. One of the ironies of the beginning of the Bosnian was was that often it was Albanian units in the JNA fighting Bosnian or Croatian militias.

As for Bosnian Serbs Army in the Bosnian civil war, they were mostly militias too and completely unrelated to the armed forces of the Republic of Serbia. This is a common mistake that everyone makes - namely conflating Republika Srpska and Bosnian Serbs with Serbia proper, the Republic of Serbia.

Additionally, as noted elsewhere, the Bosnian Serb forces were completely cut off by Milosevic and NATO was acting as the air wing of the Muslim and Croat forces so that by 1995 they were fighting at a considerable military disadvantage and fought very well despite it. They are no indicator at all of the fighting capabilities of today's Serbian army and never have been. "




Bosnian Serbs received weapons, ammo, supplies, intelligence information and men from Serbia, so it is obvious that there was a big connection between Serbian forces in Serbia and in Bosnia....In 1995 Bosnian Serbs did not have any problems with supplies (besides Oil, but Serbia had same problem), the only problem was men power....Serbs in Bosnia did not have enough people willing to fight and nothing could change that....Serbian forces were very well entranched still had lots of artillery to back them up, but did not have enough soliders for any significat offensive operations....

[limbic]

What are you talking about? They got raped in Kosare and even worse in the incursion they made in Kukes. What do the brits have to do with anything?

Who got raped? The KLA (by the accidental NATO bomb)? The Serbian Army (who was fighting under relentless NATO air attack)?

Why do you guys keep going over the same old ground here? Kosare has been discussed at length. Have you seen the number of people with "Banned User" status in those threads? Facts are disputed and insults and vaunting are common.

Lets keep it civil and factual - especially in sensitive Balkan threads.

[Lt. James Anderson]

James you are way off here.

No, I think you're way off here. My opinion had nothing to do with politics ... but the military competence and abilities of the Serbian Army today. Compared to what Serbia had in 1912-1914, what you have today is a joke.


No, sir, you are talking about one minor part of the same people (who were constantly back-stabbed by Milosevic and did not have any unity or enough support by Belgrade - not to mention the political games involved). The same applies to Vukovar, there was confused ex-commie YPA without the real goal or strategy and bunch of untrained and drunken paramilitaries (White Eagles, Seseljevci, etc.),.
However, when it comes to Kosovo, I think you're horribly underestimating Serbian unity and decisiveness on this one, with or without the Russian support.

As for the guy talking about Kosare and "getting Serbs' asses kicked".....well, perhaps Lokos could tell him more about it p-)

Two million of a nation of 6-7 million people is no minor part *by any means*.

Also I've read a lot of materiel on the conflict that came to a different conclusion ... "the drunken and untrained paramilitaries" did a lot better than the YPA cadres (at least in Vukovar that was the case). And I don't underestimate Serbian unity and decisiveness when it comes to Kosovo, but I estimare the Serbian military capabilities as very poor at best. Like I said, the Serbian military today is nothing else but renamed YPA (Tito's partisans) with same tactics, same training and same incompetent leadership.


Bosnian Serbs received weapons, ammo, supplies, intelligence information and men from Serbia, so it is obvious that there was a big connection between Serbian forces in Serbia and in Bosnia....


Most weapons on all sides came from the old YPA stocks.


In 1995 Bosnian Serbs did not have any problems with supplies (besides Oil, but Serbia had same problem), the only problem was men power....Serbs in Bosnia did not have enough people willing to fight and nothing could change that....Serbian forces were very well entranched still had lots of artillery to back them up, but did not have enough soliders for any significat offensive operations....

It had more to do with poor leadership than with the manpower issues. Most officers and NCOs of the Bosnian Serb Army were former YPA officers and NCOs, the majority of which was of very poor quality, lacked imagination and ballz for the decisive military action. For every competent officer there were five incompetents ...

[Lokos]

the Serbian military today is nothing else but renamed YPA (Tito's partisans) with same tactics, same training and same incompetent leadership.


Sorry, James, but that's completely wrong on every account. Different tactics, different training and different leadership. This was true in 1993, let alone 1999 or currently. I understand your respect for the Serbian Army of 1912-1914 (why not 1912-1918?). They were, indeed, a proficient force possessed of tremendous morale. But for some reason you dismiss modern accomplishments - such as successfully combating a large and often cohesive guerrilla force, whilst at the same time being continuously interdicted by an enormous aerial armada and subjected to constant air strikes for seventy-eight days.

If anything, the modern accomplishment is more impressive. Only the greatest optimist would label the NATO campaign a 'success'. The world's most powerful bloc was frustrated by a country of less than ten million. It was forced to scale back its demands, even when it already had Russian carte blanche. The 3rd Army made its exit from Kosovo with its flags and honour intact. The men in Kosovo during that time, in my humble opinion, were as brave, as self-sacrificing and as valourous as any in Serbia's history.

The Vojska Srbije is a largely professional, well-equipped force with a great tradition - especially in the Special Operations Brigade (the 63rd Battalion is built around the cadre of one of the most experienced units in the former Yugoslav territories - the 63a Padobranska was a highly professional force since its inception!).


Most officers and NCOs of the Bosnian Serb Army were former YPA officers and NCOs, the majority of which was of very poor quality, lacked imagination and ballz for the decisive military action. For every competent officer there were five incompetents ...

Again, false. The VRS was the most organized of the non-Yugoslav successor armies until 1995. It was then surpassed only by the HV. It remained a potent fighting force right up until the end of the war - but the main strategic limiting factor was neither poor leadership nor poor NCOs; but manpower sensitivity. Modern professionalism was lacking in all of the combatants. A good example of a capable VRS strategic action was Koridor '92.

Lokos

[Lt. James Anderson]

Sorry, James, but that's completely wrong on every account. Different tactics, different training and different leadership. This was true in 1993, let alone 1999 or currently. I understand your respect for the Serbian Army of 1912-1914 (why not 1912-1918?). They were, indeed, a proficient force possessed of tremendous morale. But for some reason you dismiss modern accomplishments - such as successfully combating a large and often cohesive guerrilla force, whilst at the same time being continuously interdicted by an enormous aerial armada and subjected to constant air strikes for seventy-eight days.

What I meant by 1912-1914 period is that the Serbian Army at that time was more of less intact. By 1918 it was only a shadow of what it was only 4 years earlier (but still a very formidable force that could measure up to any other in the world at the time). While I do agree (and respect the acomplishments) with your point of view regarding their successor, their successes were few and far in between. At the beginning of the 20th centry Serbia was in no better situation internationally than it was in the 90s (it was regarded as the Russia's proxy by the friend and foe alike).

Also, if I can remember correctly Serbia had to deal with Albanian insurections at those times too (which were put down quite successfully), which to say that Serbia at that time didn't have to deal with the same type of enemy, is false.


If anything, the modern accomplishment is more impressive. Only the greatest optimist would label the NATO campaign a 'success'. The world's most powerful bloc was frustrated by a country of less than ten million. It was forced to scale back its demands, even when it already had Russian carte blanche. The 3rd Army made its exit from Kosovo with its flags and honour intact. The men in Kosovo during that time, in my humble opinion, were as brave, as self-sacrificing and as valourous as any in Serbia's history.

The Vojska Srbije is a largely professional, well-equipped force with a great tradition - especially in the Special Operations Brigade (the 63rd Battalion is built around the cadre of one of the most experienced units in the former Yugoslav territories - the 63a Padobranska was a highly professional force since its inception!).

Again, I do agree to a point, but those units and acomplishments as more the exception than the rule. I was talking about the military as a whole.


Again, false. The VRS was the most organized of the non-Yugoslav successor armies until 1995. It was then surpassed only by the HV. It remained a potent fighting force right up until the end of the war - but the main strategic limiting factor was neither poor leadership nor poor NCOs; but manpower sensitivity. Modern professionalism was lacking in all of the combatants. A good example of a capable VRS strategic action was Koridor '92.

Lokos

Again, I agree to a point. The Bosnian Serb Army did all right in the first year of the war, but wasn't able to finish what it had started. Many observers all the way to the commanders of the UN for Bosnia regarder The Bosnian Serb Army's officer corps as poor at best (Sir Michael Rose and Louis McKenzie) that wasn't up to the task in the military terms. The result of that was a catastrophy for the Bosnian Serbs at the end. They had already won the war two almost three years earlier but were unable to hold on to the victory (to finish). Being one step from the vicotory and end up as losers has more to do with something other than the manpower issues (even with the outside political and other pressures).

[limbic]

No, I think you're way off here. My opinion had nothing to do with politics ... but the military competence and abilities of the Serbian Army today. Compared to what Serbia had in 1912-1914, what you have today is a joke.

That may very well be the case, but I cannot see how you have come to that assessment?

The Serbian Army today is not the JNA, Bosnian Serb Army or Serb Militias that fought in Bosnia.

The only relatively recent test of the Serbian Army has been Kosovo and as far as I can tell the Serbian Army acquitted itself very well.

When you consider the massive enemy air superiority factor, the fact they maintained operations at all for those three months was a testament to their mettle and fighting skill.

Just ask South African veterans what it was like to conduct operations with even just a few MIGs harassing you and the scale of Serbian achievements will be apparent.

[Lt. James Anderson]

The only relatively recent test of the Serbian Army has been Kosovo and as far as I can tell the Serbian Army acquitted itself very well.

When you consider the massive enemy air superiority factor, the fact they maintained operations at all for those three months was a testament to their mettle and fighting skill.

I think the operations in Kosovo lasted a little bit longer than those three months of NATO's involvement.

[spin]

" Many people are forgetting that Croatia was the country of 2 constitutive people (Serbs and Croats). Then Tudjman came to power and decided to label Croatia as Croatian and Serbs as national minority. You see many people forget that.

Actually, you are wrong. Albaninas and their AP Kosovo were constitutive part of Jugoslavia (Kosovo was autonomical part of Jugoslavia , not Serbia), and Croatia was .."state of croatian people, and state of serbian people IN croatia, and other people that live in Croatia (bosniak, macedonians... etc)..
So, for serbs in ex SR Croatia, their state was allways Croatia, as it was written in constitution (1974 constitution) they all like it call upon.

[V.I.D.]

"Two million of a nation of 6-7 million people is no minor part *by any means*."
__________________________________________________________________

Not to sound nit picky, but I believe by those 2 million you mean both RS and RSK which were only declaratively supporting each other and practically had different war goals and enemies. Also, there's about 6-7 million Serbs in Serbia alone, hence Lokos' statement about "country of barely 10 million" (including other nationalities and Montenegro at that time as well).

On the other hand, I do at least partially agree about the officer corps in VRS (notwithstanding Bratunac/Kravice massacres, I am positive that Srebrenica and some other war crimes would not have happened had there been a better leadership like in WWI), but again, it seems to me that you are not fully aware of the extent of political trade-offs and behind-the-curtain deals (look under "Bihac '94", "siege of Sarajevo deals", "last military operations in NW and central Bosnia in the autumn of '95" and other "colorful" aspects of that war). There was a lot of dealing and scheming behind the scenes and one only needs to check the bank accounts of major players in the area to know who profited from that war.

[KninGrad]

Actually, you are wrong. Albaninas and their AP Kosovo were constitutive part of Jugoslavia (Kosovo was autonomical part of Jugoslavia , not Serbia), and Croatia was .."state of croatian people, and state of serbian people IN croatia, and other people that live in Croatia (bosniak, macedonians... etc)..
So, for serbs in ex SR Croatia, their state was allways Croatia, as it was written in constitution (1974 constitution) they all like it call upon.

Actually u are wrong....in Croatia Serbs and Croats were "above" the rest which means that only these 2 people were constitutive. Also, including bosniaks shows lack of knowledge. That term was widely introduced at the time of war. SO called bosniaks were Muslims and even Izadbegovic declared himself as Serb.

ANd another thing is Kosovo was AP of SERBIA and not of Yugoslavia. Just to make that clear and the only constitutive people of Serbia were Serbs!!!!

[Mundzos]

Actually u are wrong....in Croatia Serbs and Croats were "above" the rest which means that only these 2 people were constitutive. Also, including bosniaks shows lack of knowledge. That term was widely introduced at the time of war. SO called bosniaks were Muslims and even Izadbegovic declared himself as Serb.

ANd another thing is Kosovo was AP of SERBIA and not of Yugoslavia. Just to make that clear and the only constitutive people of Serbia were Serbs!!!!


Anyone wondering why did Yugoslavia split should read KninGrad post....In Yugoslavia, my grandparents had to declare themselves as Serb or Croat although they were Bosniaks....In Croatia, Serbs (around 1 million) and Croats were "above" the rest while around 2 million Albanians in Serbia lost their Autonomy....Go figures....and than someone would say that all nations in Yugoslavia had same rights....:cantbeli:

[KninGrad]

Anyone wondering why did Yugoslavia split should read KninGrad post....In Yugoslavia, my grandparents had to declare themselves as Serb or Croat although they were Bosniaks....In Croatia, Serbs (around 1 million) and Croats were "above" the rest while around 2 million Albanians in Serbia lost their Autonomy....Go figures....and than someone would say that all nations in Yugoslavia had same rights....:cantbeli:

Not even now u can confirm that there are 2 million LEGALLY residing albanians in Kosovo. So dont take numbers from your ass.
Also do u know that thousands of Albanians came to YU during Hodza's rule.

Another thing is that at that time u could not declare yourself as Bosniak because that nationality did not EXIST. Here is something "new" for u ...wait for it ....wait for it......BOSNIAKS are Serbs who converted to Islam.
Even significant number of Croats are Serbs who converted to Catholicism.

[BW2]

I agree with James Anderson to a extent.

The Serbian army today is not the same army in 1918.


In this issue, I´m definitelly on the serbian side. Thank you boreal.

[VRS]

Those locals were Serbs, right? That means the same people, the same equipment, the same leadership (trained at the YPA' s Military Academy of Belgrade) etc. What is called "The Army of Serbia" today was the same army that fought at Vukovaw in 1991 and they didn't any better than the local Serbs in the Krajina region or Bosnia.

Not really. VRS (Bosnian Serb Army) was composed of everyday average joes who had kids, wives etc. while Serbia is big enough to call on an army of 150,000 made out of young recruits, who are decently trained and well motivated. Furthermore the level of officer training is much higher in Serbian army than it was in VRS and the equipment is somewhat better...Now that being said Serbian Army would stand no chance against modern Western armies supported by massive air power, and Serbs know it, so the chance of Serbian Army going in to take Kosovo is quite slim. The article is wrong on that and on the claim that Serbia ignored Austro-Hungarian ultimatum cause it actually accommodated almost every demand except that the investigation be monitored by Austrian officials.

[Nebelwerfer.]

Even significant number of Croats are Serbs who converted to Catholicism.

:lol: Okay....

GTFO

[zg18]

Even significant number of Croats are Serbs who converted to Catholicism.

:lol: Maybe a lot of Serbs are Croats who converted to Orthodoxy rofl

[Lokos]

Maybe a lot of Serbs are Croats who converted to Orthodoxy

We joke, but both propositions are likely correct... To neatly divide the Serbs and Croats into two distinct camps is an exercise in futility.

Lokos

[Pleonasm]

What I meant by 1912-1914 period is that the Serbian Army at that time was more of less intact. By 1918 it was only a shadow of what it was only 4 years earlier (but still a very formidable force that could measure up to any other in the world at the time).Why was the Serbian army of 1918 "a shadow" of the army of 1914? Its men had better weapons and more experience and they didn't seem to lack the fighting spirit they had 1912/1913.

Actually, you are wrong. Albaninas and their AP Kosovo were constitutive part of Jugoslavia (Kosovo was autonomical part of Jugoslavia , not Serbia), and Croatia was .."state of croatian people, and state of serbian people IN croatia, and other people that live in Croatia (bosniak, macedonians... etc)..
So, for serbs in ex SR Croatia, their state was allways Croatia, as it was written in constitution (1974 constitution) they all like it call upon.Interessting, according to you the SAP Kosovo was an autonomous part of the SFRJ itself, but still not a republic and was regardless of your opinion in the second article of the first part of the constitution of 1974 described as a part of the Socialistic Republic of Serbia and not of the Socialistic Federative Republic of Yugoslavia. Hm...

:lol: Maybe a lot of Serbs are Croats who converted to Orthodoxy roflYesterday a member of the Skupsina (the Serbian parliament) claimed that many Croats in the Vojvodina started to celebrate their home Patron Saint (just like orthodox Serbs do) and showed that as a proof of a claimed assimilation which is conducted by the Serbian state. On the other hand I know a Croat who is constantly referring to his grandfather as "Croat", whereas the old guy is calling himself a "Catholic Serb". So, who knows...p-)

[Mundzos]

Not even now u can confirm that there are 2 million LEGALLY residing albanians in Kosovo. So dont take numbers from your ass.
Also do u know that thousands of Albanians came to YU during Hodza's rule.

Another thing is that at that time u could not declare yourself as Bosniak because that nationality did not EXIST. Here is something "new" for u ...wait for it ....wait for it......BOSNIAKS are Serbs who converted to Islam.
Even significant number of Croats are Serbs who converted to Catholicism.


I see that this will get very difficult for you, but i will try....Go on google type Bosnia and Herzegovina and you can lear little bit about history....Bosnia was it's own country 900 years ago....I am sure that lots of Bosniaks were Serbs and Croats who did convert to Islam, but there is nothing wrong with that....We always had a problem with Serbia trying to interfere, but luckily our country still exist and our language still exists...Just before the WWI in Bosnia, everybody was Bosniak, Serbs, Croats and Muslims.....After WWII, Serbs and Croats are trying to influence Bosniaks and let them believe that they are not Bosniaks....Read some history on Bosniaks in WWI, there you will learn that, Serbs, Croats and Muslims called themselves Bosniaks before Yugoslavia ever existed or Tito was born....You can also learn that Bosniaks were most decorated and bravest military force fighting for Austrian empire....

[Fullaut0]

Yesterday a member of the Skupsina (the Serbian parliament) claimed that many Croats in the Vojvodina started to celebrate their home Patron Saint (just like orthodox Serbs do) and showed that as a proof of a claimed assimilation which is conducted by the Serbian state. On the other hand I know a Croat who is constantly referring to his grandfather as "Croat", whereas the old guy is calling himself a "Catholic Serb". So, who knows...p-)

I love that.

My mate Armin looks like he just rolled in from Turkey, hangs around with Serbs mostly, speaks with a distinct Serb dialect and wears a brojanica (Serb prayer beads) but nonetheless is a Muslim and a proud one at that.

We can all lament what could have been.

[BW2]

Ah yes Google... we might as well just burn real history books these days. But whatever you say champ. :roll:

Back on topic, The President has announced the army will be sent into Kosmet if the peace keepers there fail to uphold security of Serbs. Albanians in Kosmet better be on their best behavior, sit boy sit.

http://finchannel.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=3353&Itemid=38

[KninGrad]

Ah yes Google... we might as well just burn real history books these days. But whatever you say champ. :roll:

Back on topic, The President has announced the army will be sent into Kosmet if the peace keepers there fail to uphold security of Serbs. Albanians in Kosmet better be on their best behavior, sit boy sit.

http://finchannel.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=3353&Itemid=38


I am glad about that because at least Albanians have something to fear of. Another thing is that I am confident that our policies are starting to change due to Russian support which will become even stronger due to them trying to buy our gas companies. Which is good news because there is no way Russians (Italians too) will allow for their investments to perish.

[Annihilator9112]

Operation Storm tells us nothing about the state of the Serbian army now or then. Storm was the US planned retaking of the breakaway Krajina region of Croatia (Krajina was exactly the same as Kosovo, but Serbs were the local majority instead of Albanians, and we all know the bad guys are, right?). It would be like saying judging Albanian army based on the performance of the KLA in Macedonia.


Where did you hear this? It wasn't US planned.

[BW2]

Where did you hear this? It wasn't US planned.

http://www.crowc.org/english/news/article.asp?id=2

[Mundzos]

Ah yes Google... we might as well just burn real history books these days. But whatever you say champ. :roll:

Back on topic, The President has announced the army will be sent into Kosmet if the peace keepers there fail to uphold security of Serbs. Albanians in Kosmet better be on their best behavior, sit boy sit.

http://finchannel.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=3353&Itemid=38


Real history books are the only ones writen by Serbs? Open your eyes and see what's out there, don't believe in everything that you were fed for the last 50 years....Google doesn't bite, try it, you might like it....

Back to topic, I think that your president is full of $hit.....Serbs didn't have any security in Kosovo for the last few years and he didn't do anything about it.....There is no way he will send army in Kosovo now, which will provoke international community....

[BW2]

Real history books are the only ones writen by Serbs? Open your eyes and see what's out there, don't believe in everything that you were fed for the last 50 years....Google doesn't bite, try it, you might like it.... Like I said, what ever you say...

[Mundzos]

You can talk about legal issue and all the other nice things, but USA and most western europe countries are supporting independence of Kosovo, so they will not be very happy about Serbs sending troops back to Kosovo...I personally don't believe in UN and Nato because they did not do anything to protect 7,000 Bosnian Muslims in UN "SAFE ZONE" so I am not sure what would they do if Serbian Military enters Kosovo...I am also pretty sure that Kosovo Albanians are ready for altercation with Serbs and this time Serbs would have to fight better trained, equiped and motivated force...

[VRS]

I personally don't believe in UN and Nato because they did not do anything to protect 7,000 Bosnian Muslims in UN "SAFE ZONE" so I am not sure what would they do if Serbian Military enters Kosovo... They actually bombed Serbs, and protected the area for 3 years while Muslims used their protection to conduct raids against Serbs, who then got pissed off decided to take the matters into their own hands and the only fault of the Dutch is that they refused to give their lives in order to protect 28th Division...How shameful of them!:roll:


Serbs would have to fight better trained, equiped and motivated force...which they would still wipe out in the matter of weeks.:backhand:

[Milepitopet]

which they would still wipe out in the matter of weeks.:backhand:
I don't think he's talking about Albanians only, but NATO also. In that case I would tell you to keep up with the wet dreams.

[AlboSwe]

which they would still wipe out in the matter of weeks.

...and forcing US once again to bomb Serbia, or take it on the ground (easy match). They just HAPPEND to have 92% of the population on their side.


cheers!

[VRS]

...and forcing US once again to bomb Serbia, or take it on the ground (easy match). They just HAPPEND to have 92% of the population on their side.


cheers!

No sh*t! That is what I said before and my post was merely referring to the possibilities of Serbian Army vis-a-vis Albanians.:fork:

[VRS]

I don't think he's talking about Albanians only, but NATO also. In that case I would tell you to keep up with the wet dreams.

I think he was referring to Albanians cause he mentioned this force in the context of Kosovo Albanians.

[Annihilator9112]

http://www.crowc.org/english/news/article.asp?id=2

doesnt say anything about a USA planned OP S.
its only about warcrimes :/

[Mundzos]

They actually bombed Serbs, and protected the area for 3 years while Muslims used their protection to conduct raids against Serbs, who then got pissed off decided to take the matters into their own hands and the only fault of the Dutch is that they refused to give their lives in order to protect 28th Division...How shameful of them!:roll:
which they would still wipe out in the matter of weeks.:backhand:


They bombed Serbs after they couldn't hide that they killed thousands of people....They should have bombed them long time before that....Dutch Divison should have requested heavy airstrikes against Serbian position and 28th divison would prolly be able to hold up....They had pretty good success against Serbian forces in the past, so no reason to think that they couldn't do it again with heavy air support.....

You still live in that illusion about Serbian army....That's what RSK people belived too and than they were running away on tractors and so were RS people and there were also packed and ready to run, luckily for them USA pressured all sides to sign peace agreement....Don't be so sure about VS invincibility....

[VRS]

They bombed Serbs after they couldn't hide that they killed thousands of people....They should have bombed them long time before that....Dutch Divison should have requested heavy airstrikes against Serbian position and 28th divison would prolly be able to hold up....They had pretty good success against Serbian forces in the past, so no reason to think that they couldn't do it again with heavy air support.....
No they actually bombed Serbs prior to entering Srebrenica. It is mountainous region where it is difficult to attack ground targets as many NATO pilots complained and unless they brought some serious firepower on the infrastructure of the entire RS they would be unable to stop Serbs in Srebrenica. 28. Division would be unable to hold the Serbs back if Serbs cut off all the supplies.




You still live in that illusion about Serbian army....That's what RSK people belived too and than they were running away on tractors and so were RS people and there were also packed and ready to run, luckily for them USA pressured all sides to sign peace agreement....Don't be so sure about VS invincibility....
:cantbeli:

Hmmm...Comparison between RSK and VS and their respective opponents just shows how little you know about these things so I won't even bother to explain why RSK was unable to defeat HV and why VS would be able to defeat Kosovo Albanians with ease.

[Mundzos]

No they actually bombed Serbs prior to entering Srebrenica. It is mountainous region where it is difficult to attack ground targets as many NATO pilots complained and unless they brought some serious firepower on the infrastructure of the entire RS they would be unable to stop Serbs in Srebrenica. 28. Division would be unable to hold the Serbs back if Serbs cut off all the supplies.



:cantbeli:

Hmmm...Comparison between RSK and VS and their respective opponents just shows how little you know about these things so I won't even bother to explain why RSK was unable to defeat HV and why VS would be able to defeat Kosovo Albanians with ease.


Hmmm....I would say that you are one of those internet warriors, that gets caught up in military analysis..I had my share of fighting against various Serbian forces, so I know a little about their capabilities....Once again, I Kosovo Albanians got any significant training from USA and if they have better weapons systems, I am pretty sure that VS would have a hard time defeating them, especially if NATO would give them hell from above...

[VRS]

Hmmm....I would say that you are one of those internet warriors, that gets caught up in military analysis..
Ok.:roll:



I had my share of fighting against various Serbian forces, so I know a little about their capabilities....Once again, I Kosovo Albanians got any significant training from USA and if they have better weapons systems, I am pretty sure that VS would have a hard time defeating them, especially if NATO would give them hell from above...

And everyone knows what were the capabilities of ARBiH against VRS or the KLA against VJ...Albanians lack the basic officer core, heavy equipment, logistics structure and would be hopelessly outnumbered. Of course if NATO enters the equation everything changes, as I have said before.

[Royal]

doesnt say anything about a USA planned OP S.
its only about warcrimes :/


Maybe you should learn to read? Failing that, stick operacija oluja/operation storm and MPRI and/or IMINT into google...

[asch]

Hmmm....I would say that you are one of those internet warriors, that gets caught up in military analysis..I had my share of fighting against various Serbian forces, so I know a little about their capabilities....Once again, I Kosovo Albanians got any significant training from USA and if they have better weapons systems, I am pretty sure that VS would have a hard time defeating them, especially if NATO would give them hell from above...
cool.
i'm sure that mature people who got their "share of fighting" can understand that "if only" cliche's and insulting not a surest way to win this debate. keep it civil and realistic.

[naymeria]

You can talk about legal issue and all the other nice things, but USA and most western europe countries are supporting independence of Kosovo, so they will not be very happy about Serbs sending troops back to Kosovo...

This is slightly incorrect. Whereas it's true that most european countries are willing to recognize kosovo's independence, they aren't willing to do it against international law. The only two european countries which would have backed up a unilateral declaration this summer were UK and France. Ignoring this detail doesn't portray the situation in its correct perspective and europe's attitude towards the question.

Having said this, following is a quote taken from the article Bluewing has posted a reference to:



According to RIA Novosti, Serbia's Army is ready to assist in protecting Kosovo Serbs if Kosovo peacekeepers fail to halt violence in the province, the president said on December 26.
"If matters in Kosovo reach a violent stage, and if the international KFOR peacekeeping force is unable to adequately protect Serbs, the Serb Army is ready at any time to provide assistance in protecting the population from danger, with the approval of international organizations and in line with international law," pro-western Boris Tadic said.


So it's not that the serbian gov't is going to head on into nothern kosovo provoking out of the blues the international community. First there will have to be the preconditions of an attack on kosovar serbs and failure of protection. I think it would be hard this time to set the blame on serbs and justisfy an armed nato reaction.



Dutch Divison should have requested heavy airstrikes against Serbian position and 28th divison would prolly be able to hold up....


Regardin Dutchbat and srebrenica, you may want to see a video called “a cry from the grave”. It's divided into 11 or 12 parts on youtube. The dutch commander did request air intervention for three times and on the third it was promised to him, but it never arrived. The parents of the victims are still waiting for justice also regarding the responsability for the omission of the intervention, but apparently the relative nato documentation is harder to obtain than capturing mladic.

The dutch peacekeepers, however, did what they could. They also had no suspect of what was about to happen when they left the town and considering that one of them lost his life, killed by a handgrenade launched on purpose by a Muslim, you are doing them great injustice. There's nothing wrong in pointing out responsabilities of the west, on the contrary, but get your facts right before you do.
That peacekeeper who died...it wasn't his war.

Nay

[naymeria]

I am glad about that because at least Albanians have something to fear of. Another thing is that I am confident that our policies are starting to change due to Russian support which will become even stronger due to them trying to buy our gas companies. Which is good news because there is no way Russians (Italians too) will allow for their investments to perish.

Regarding italy, there are also some internal political issues, in comparison with which interests in investments probably go pale. Expect a change of attitude if the country goes to anticipated elections and berlusconi wins.

Nay

[limbic]

doesnt say anything about a USA planned OP S.
its only about warcrimes :/

If you are referring to http://www.crowc.org/english/news/article.asp?id=2 then you may not have read the article fully:

There is a huge section in the middle starting:

THE UNITED STATES PARTICIPATED IN OPERATION STORM

Much evidence has been made public that demonstrates that United States officials aided and abetted Operation Storm. These public facts include:


The Green Light: It is public knowledge that US officials in fact gave the green light to the Croatians to start Operation Storm. The United States of course denies this, but information has seeped into the public domain.

A. The Observer, 30 July 1995: On July 30, 1995 [six days before Operation Storm began], the British newspaper The Observer quoted unnamed Western diplomatic sources as saying that US officials had given the Croats a green light. The Observer quotes the diplomat as follows: ". . . Diplomatic sources in the area, who declined to be identified, said the Croat offensive followed the discreet encouragement of the United States . ' Croatia has been given the thumbs up by America ,' said a Western source. 'They basically said: We understand you've got to do it. Just do it fast and don't misbehave.'. . ."

B. Testimony of the head of Croatian military counterintelligence: In August 2001, the Croatian Army’s head of counterintelligence at the time of Operation Storm announced in the Croatian paper Narodni List as follows: Former chief of Croatian Army's counterintelligence Markica Rebic stated today that Pentagon and the CIA were completely supervising operation ‘Oluja’ (Storm) of Croatia Army in 1995. Rebic also claims that he had gotten a message from American military attache that the USA did not have anything against Oluja, if Croatia performed it quickly and cleanly. As you can see, the Observer story from 1995 and Rebic’s interview six years later portray a very similar green light message from the United States .

C. Testimony of Croatian President Stipe Mesic: Current Croatian President Stipe Mesic also claims that the United States gave the green light for Operation Storm. Mesic gave an interview in the German weekly magazine Der Spiegel on 7 August 1995 . In the interview, Mr. Mesic states as follows:

“I am certain that President Tudjman would never have undertaken this Operation [Storm] had he not received the green light from the United States and Germany . . . . I believe that President Clinton thinks that Congress will override his veto [of Congressional legislation authorizing the unilateral lifting of the United Nations arms embargo against Bosnia-Herzegovina] and that his policy with respect to Bosnia would be viewed as a complete failure. On the other hand, if Croatia were to conquer Knin, then it would be possible to defend Bihac as well, and then end the siege of Sarajevo , which would finally force the Serbs to the negotiating table.”There at another nine section to follow. The article is exhaustive.

Try these too...

http://www.spiegel.de/international/0,1518,396828,00.html (in English)
http://mprofaca.cro.net/operation_storm.html

I think even the US has stopped pretending it had nothing to do with Storm. It was one of the first uses of Private military companies (PMCs) - in this case MPRI (http://www.mpri.com/index.html) - to provide serious military assistance disguised as mere commercial arrangement between a US company and the Croatian government.

As far as I am concerned the US is completely entitled to assist whomever they like, but at least admit it. That said, military assistance of Croatia at that time would have been a direct violation of UN resolutions related to the Yugoslav civil war.

[Annihilator9112]

Maybe you should learn to read? Failing that, stick operacija oluja/operation storm and MPRI and/or IMINT into google...

it said nothing about US planned operation.

it only talks about "
THE UNITED STATES PARTICIPATED IN OPERATION STORM"
"USA supervised the operation"
"USA gave the green light"



http://www.spiegel.de/international/0,1518,396828,00.html (in English)
http://mprofaca.cro.net/operation_storm.html

How can they Blame USA for the warcrimes??

[Royal]

it said nothing about US planned operation.

it only talks about "
THE UNITED STATES PARTICIPATED IN OPERATION STORM"
"USA supervised the operation"
"USA gave the green light"

Are you obtuse or just thick? Try the second half of my suggestion...


How can they Blame USA for the warcrimes??

Complicity before and after the fact. I'm no lawyer, but the US assistance provided Gotovina's troops with the ability to commit the crimes. If Milosevic was complicit in the crimes of his troops (and he was), then Tudjman was equally guilty, ergo so was Gotevina. On the other hand it caused all sides to agree on the Dayton Agreement and thus ended the war in Croatia/BiH. Swings and roundabouts.

The US will never allow its subjects to stand trial in an international court, so the matter is an irrelevance.

[limbic]

it said nothing about US planned operation.

it only talks about "
THE UNITED STATES PARTICIPATED IN OPERATION STORM"
"USA supervised the operation"
"USA gave the green light"

Clearly you did not read the other 9 sections as advised or you would have read about US Aircraft bombing the Serbian positions to assist the attack, the US jamming Serbian communications, the fact that MPRI - a de facto proxy for the US military - overhauled the Croatian army and helped plan the attack which was a textbook combined arms offensive.

I am not sure why you are disputing this as the facts fairly widely known and ot even the Croatian government disputes the US involvement in Storm.


...How can they Blame USA for the warcrimes??

If the US participated in Operation Strom through assistance and planning then the US was a state accessory to was is increasingly being recognised as a war crime.

This does not say the US committed war crimes, just that their actions were negligent and perhaps illegal (if it can be shown the US state gave material assistance in defiance of the UN embargoes).

The use of MPRI and other private defense contractors was the loophole though which the US could weigh in on the ground, but not strictly be in violation of UN sanctions.

In short, the consensus here in Serbia at least is that the US and NATO were strongly allied with the Bosnian Muslims and the Croats with the full weight of covert assistance being provided to both those allies. NATO acted at the de facto air force for both the Bosnian Muslims and the Croats in Croatia proper and Bosnia. This culminated in Operation Storm where the US both bombed and electronically jammed Serbian positions and, as noted above, provided crucial planning, training and assistance to the Croatian army via a proxy, MPRI.

From the Serbian perspective, the unbalanced double standards and anti-Serb bias from the US and Europe has never abated, with Serbian civilian and military commanders authorities being prosecuted for war crimes whilst their Croat and Bosnian Muslim counterparts - who also oversaw war crimes - were never indicted.

The double standard in the Hague, where Serbs are charged but their equally guilty opposite numbers are not, is a continuing cause of fury in Serbia where there is widespread support for prosecuting war criminals but widespread anger that Serbia and Serbs are singled out, lending the impression that Serbs were the overwhelming wrongdoers and the other combatant groups innocent (which is obviously false).

[AlboSwe]

No sh*t! That is what I said before and my post was merely referring to the possibilities of Serbian Army vis-a-vis Albanians.:fork:


Lets hope we dont come that scenario, wont do good to any of us

[LETMEIN]

Hmmm....I would say that you are one of those internet warriors, that gets caught up in military analysis..I had my share of fighting against various Serbian forces, so I know a little about their capabilities....Once again, I Kosovo Albanians got any significant training from USA and if they have better weapons systems, I am pretty sure that VS would have a hard time defeating them, especially if NATO would give them hell from above...
Well the Serbs didn't realy go all out, remember what happend to the 200k strong German Army, that got routed by 60k Serbian Army.

[Lokos]

Well the Serbs didn't realy go all out, remember what happend to the 200k strong German Army, that got routed by 60k Serbian Army

When was this?

Lokos

[KoTeMoRe]

From the Serbian perspective, the unbalanced double standards and anti-Serb bias from the US and Europe has never abated, with Serbian civilian and military commanders authorities being prosecuted for war crimes whilst their Croat and Bosnian Muslim counterparts - who also oversaw war crimes - were never indicted.

The double standard in the Hague, where Serbs are charged but their equally guilty opposite numbers are not, is a continuing cause of fury in Serbia where there is widespread support for prosecuting war criminals but widespread anger that Serbia and Serbs are singled out, lending the impression that Serbs were the overwhelming wrongdoers and the other combatant groups innocent (which is obviously false).

New World Order and its sequels.

Lokos, I second your question.

[Lt. James Anderson]

When was this?

Lokos

He's probably referring to late 1918 (Bulgarian/Geman/Austrian forces) on Salonika front. I think the Serbian Army had more than 60 000 troops (about 100 000).

[xSlofoxx]

A good example of a capable VRS strategic action was Koridor '92.

Lokos


I thought that Koridor/Posavina was sold by the Croatian government ? After the Tudjman-Milosevic deal to split Bosnia.

http://www.nacional.hr/en/articles/view/31294/

[Fullaut0]

I thought that Koridor/Posavina was sold by the Croatian government ? After the Tudjman-Milosevic deal to split Bosnia.

http://www.nacional.hr/en/articles/view/31294/


This article is journalism at it's finest.

Incidentally, you can replace the word 'journalism' with 'revisionism' and the effect is pretty much the same.


Witnesses claim that, when Praljak appeared in the field, problems constantly arose and the loss of territory increased. Furthermore, it is clear that the counterintelligence agencies completely failed to discover the defeatists, or did not want to discover them, nor did they make any efforts to explain the objectives of the battle in Posavina to the soldiers. According to the report, the result was an evident scattering of soldiers and the refusal of entire units to head onto into the battlefield.Maybe it was merely a case of incompetence?


The chain of command, Command Slavonia battlefield, Command Eastern Posavina, Command Tactics and Battle Groups, as outlined in the report, did not function in the field due to the meddling and various communications with the Defence Ministry and elsewhere.Evidence of chain of command failures does not a conspiracy make.


Of the HVO units, the 101st brigade from Bosanski Brod and the 103rd HVO brigade from Derventa were constantly active. The refusal of a number of units from the Osijek Operative Zone to go into battle, lateness in replacing units, leaving position without permission (six HV units and eight HVO units left their positions in the western sector from 15 July to 6 October) and not taking disciplinary measures and criminal responsibility negatively impacted the remaining soldiers and commanders, seriously eroded the Croatian morale and led neighbouring units into danger of being encircled and imprisoned (on 30 September, the unannounced retreat of the 101st HVO brigade led to the imprisonment of 19 soldiers of the 2nd battalion of the 108th brigade).
Occam's Razor kids.

[BW2]

Just came in... thankfully no casualties.


Kosovska Mitrovica: 8 Serb houses under attack 2 January 2008 | 15:29 | Source: FoNet KOSOVSKA MITROVICA -- Eight Serb-owned houses were targeted in attacks in Kosovska Mitrovica on the first day of 2008.

FoNet news agency quotes a Kosovo and Metohija Coordinating Center release which said that a synchronized terrorist action in Bošnjačka Mahala, in northern Kosovska Mitrovica, saw one house set on fire while seven others, all belonging to local Serbs, were stoned.

The flames set to Radovan Lazić's home some time after midnight Tuesday rendered it uninhabitable, the agency reports.

Houses belonging to Goran Milutinović, Predrag Jevđić, Petar Jeremić, Dragiša Jeremić, RadovanaJanićijević, DragoljubaMemarović and Radoš Ljušić, were stoned, but no one was injured in a series of synchronized attacks, the statement said.
Blast at Belgrade bank offices in Kosovo 2 January 2008 | 15:08 | Source: Beta DRAGAŠ -- An explosion last night shook a Komercijalna Bank branch in Dragaš, Kosovo; no casualties.
The blast, that took place at 10:25 p.m. Tuesday, caused extensive damage, not only to the structure housing the bank but also on the surrounding businesses and apartments that mostly suffered shattered windows.

This was confirmed today by the Kosovo police (KPS) command in Priština.

Police are securing the parameter around the site of the explosion, while its expert are conducting an investigation, a KPS statement said.

Regional police in Prizren say the device was placed under one of the bank's windows, but did not specify which explosive was used.

KFOR however believes that about one kilogram of explosives was planted, but no traces of the device were recovered at the scene.

This is the second time Komercijalna's branch came under attack since it opened in Kosovo in April 2004. The first explosion happened on February 18, 2006.

The bank's sole purpose in Dragaš is to service pensioners who receive their monthly installments from Belgrade.

Local police did not reveal that they had any suspects in the bombing or any leads as to the motive of the attack, but did say that after interviewing one of the employees they were "unable to determine under what license the bank operated in Dragaš."

[ssg-p-11]

bad part is we (US) are understaffed as part of nato, the OTH forces are to slow to respond to be of any real help in the initial week of violence! BTDT.

[Killerkai1]

James Anderson's comment that Micheal Rose thought the Bosnian Serb professional corps were incompetent is incorrect. In his book he states that 'Serbian officers had been well educated in the mass application of fire, maenouvre and concentrating their forces for the final attack'.

[V.I.D.]

from B92 website:

NEW YORK -- Serbia refuses to give up Kosovo, even if it means giving up the EU, Newsweek reports.

In a piece entitled, "Sorry, not interested", the magazine says that Belgrade, "it seems, has flipped the tables on the EU; for the first time, a European country outside the EU is not clamoring to be let in, but, on the contrary, making demands of its own, insisting Europe continue negotiations over Kosovo until an agreeable solution to all parties is met."

The article looks at the complex domestic and international circumstances surrounding Serbia's bid to hold on to its southern province, and says that the authorities are "demanding Europe to line up 'with us or against us' on Kosovo."

"A number of EU states are leaning Serbia's way," it continues, and adds, "those opposed to a unilateral Kosovo declaration of independence include Spain, Cyprus, Romania, Hungary, Slovakia and Greece."

"They argue that to forcibly separate the 90 percent ethnic Albanian and largely Muslim province from an unwilling Serbia will undermine stability in the Balkans and set a dangerous precedent for other separatist movements."

Newsweek says that "opposition has sprouted up" to Washington's support for Kosovo's independence, and quotes recent comments from former U.S. Navy admiral and Joint Chiefs of Staff adviser James Lyons, and former U.S. Secretary of State Lawrence Eagleburger.

Lyons warned this month against setting up a "Taliban-like state in the very heart of Europe" that "has known ties to the global jihad movement and organized crime."

Its independence, he noted, will lead to a "train wreck" in relations with Russia.

Last week former U.S. secretary of State Lawrence Eagleburger cautioned against "carving Kosovo away from Serbia for the repercussions it would have on future global policy."

The article suggests that a resolution to the crisis may be in Serbia generating "some sympathy from the West by handing over war criminals like Bosnian Serb military chief Radko Mladić to The Hague."

"In return, the West might improvise a diplomatic solution of the sort that already exists in Taiwan and northern Cyprus," it quotes Andrew Denison of Transatlantic Networks, a think tank in Bonn, Germany.

"We don't really allow their independence, but they can say they're independent," he says.

But until then, Newsweek says, the Americans and Europeans will have to "play shrewd power brokers and apply the brakes to their stated promise of Kosovo independence—a promise many believe should never have been made."

"With so much at stake, the West must ask itself whether a free Kosovo is worth further humiliating a volatile, Russia-backed Belgrade in the heart of the Balkans," the magazine says, and concludes that Serbia is "one small, poor Eastern [European] state that the EU may eventually want more than it wants the EU.

[Komandant]

Albanian president to pay first-ever Kosovo visit - reports

Jan 12, 2008, 11:33 GMT

Tirana - Albanian President Bamir Topi will pay a visit to the Serbian province of Kosovo at the end of January in a development coming amid preparations by the Kosovars to declare independence, reports said Saturday.
The first-ever visit to the predominantly ethnic Albanian province by an Albanian head of state is to take place January 25 to 27, the media reports in Tirana said.
Topi is to be accompanied by a 100-strong delegation of political and business leaders.
Amid consultations with the European Union and the United States, Kosovo is preparing shortly to declare its independence from Serbia, reports in the provincial capital Pristina said.


Great news :)

[xSloboxx]

This article is journalism at it's finest.

Maybe it was merely a case of incompetence?

Evidence of chain of command failures does not a conspiracy make.



roflrofl Then you know 0 about Balkans.

Guess even if persons responsible would say that you wouldn't believe them ?


Well here it is :

http://www.youtube.com/v/Q8ygCjFKfk0&rel=1

[limbic]

Albanian president to pay first-ever Kosovo visit - reports

...Great news :)

So they are finally showing their hand regarding Greater Albania, huh? :-)

I jest of course, but I wonder why the President is visiting? The Albanians I know are not too fond of Kosovars, they consider them bumpkins and accuse them of ruining the reputation of Albanians with their criminal enterprises.

[Komandant]

Theres no such thing as Greater Albania silly. The Albanian President has every right to visit a province which belongs to Albania. :)

[BW2]

Theres no such thing as Greater Albania silly. The Albanian President has every right to visit a province which belongs to Albania.

If you plan on staying here long you better make your next post count...

[asch]

Theres no such thing as Greater Albania silly. The Albanian President has every right to visit a province which belongs to Albania. :)
care to explain your trolling?

[boreal]

care to explain your trolling?


After a banning of a couple of weeks, I suppose

[AlboSwe]

Both Serbian PM and President visited Kosova last year, why would Albania's President be any different or strange?

[naymeria]

Both Serbian PM and President visited Kosova last year, why would Albania's President be any different or strange?
Because it would seem as wanting to provoke the serbs, exactly as your one-liner seems to want to do on here?

Smartchild's comments aren't very appreciated by anyone on here regarding the balkans. If you have a belief or idea, expose it and start a discussion, but keep certain comments at home.

Btw, what do people think of it? the visit i mean, not alboswe's comment.

Nay

[ssg-p-11]

There was a nicely written article in the travel section of the local paper last week about "Discovering Kosovo" and how safe it was for americans and it was "the hidden travel gem of the balkans, however there have been some small isolated incidents of racial violence". :hug: I got a good laugh out of it:roll:, cant wait to see what happens in the spring.
and as far as who owns Kosovo? NATO for the time being......

[V.I.D.]

"Btw, what do people think of it? the visit i mean, not alboswe's comment.

Nay"



There should not be problem about it, considering that Kosovo Albanians comprise majority of Serbian province of Kosovo, and Albania being a neighbor country and all. However, considering recent Albanian officials' meddling in Serbian affairs (calling publicly for Kosovo's "independence"), I believe back in November, and open promotion of illegal secession of Serbia's cultural/religious cradle, I think this visit is little bit more than a friendly chat with your ethnic brethren across the border. Anyhow, we'll see what the future will bring in the months to come.........

[Komandant]

Kosova uniting with Albania will be the end result, regardless of what you guys think on this forum. When will it happen, I don't know. Everyone in the international community knows this so stop with the BS.

[AlboSwe]

and as far as who owns Kosovo? NATO for the time being......

What exactly does NATO own? If you are talking about the land, its the poeple living there. Not some organistation, government or a nation outside.

[Vorian]

Kosova uniting with Albania will be the end result, regardless of what you guys think on this forum. When will it happen, I don't know. Everyone in the international community knows this so stop with the BS.

Keep it up mate.

Kosovars want their own state not to unite with mama Albania anyways.

[AlboSwe]

Kosova uniting with Albania will be the end result, regardless of what you guys think on this forum. When will it happen, I don't know. Everyone in the international community knows this so stop with the BS.

Some things shouldnt be talked about, not now. You are giving the very reason for others accusing us for Greater Albania.

[Vorian]

Some things shouldnt be talked about, not now. You are giving the very reason for others accusing us for Greater Albania.

I have noticed that this is a trend for USA-living Albanians.

[Komandant]

Some things shouldnt be talked about, not now. You are giving the very reason for others accusing us for Greater Albania.

Who's accusing us? Some forumers online? Yet these fools don't even know the exact meaning of "greater" Albania. We simply desire albanian populated lands to unite with Albania. If we had ambitions to take over Bosnia, Bulgaria or something of that sort, then it would be considered "Greater Albania". Regardless of who accuses of what online(which is a joke.), who's going to do anything to stop it? Nobody. All they can do is threaten to ban a person from a forum because I said Kosova belongs to Albania. :roll:

[kleos]

with mama Albania anyways

Yeah man , thats right , Kosova is part of "Mama Albania"

[limbic]

Kosova uniting with Albania will be the end result, regardless of what you guys think on this forum. When will it happen, I don't know. Everyone in the international community knows this so stop with the BS.

Whilst there is evidence of a Greater Albanian project - and the possibility that Albanians will make the same mistake Serbian nationalists made - there are several obstacles to a Kosovo/Albania union.

1. Kosovo is still part of Serbia and large numbers of Serbs are still strongly against independent Kosovo. Combined with Russian support this is a formidable problem and far from settled.
2. Albanians are generally uninterested in a union with Kosovo.
3. The US and EU will strongly discourage Albanian from destabilizing the Balkans with an expansionist agenda. The last rhing anyone needs is the rest of the Balkans - armed with evidence of a Greater Albania project - forcefully suppressing any attempts by Albanian minorities to join the motherland project. A Greater Albania would legitimize Greater Serbia with Republika Srpska seceding from Bosnia, northern Kosovo definitely being part of Serbia, as might parts of Montenegro. We will have gone circle..and Milosevic will be smiling in his grave saying "Who would have thought that the Albanians would be the ones who made Greater Serbia possible!?"

I think we are living in dangerous times and mistakes now might take a generation fix, so maybe we should proceed very carefully on all this.

[limbic]

Some things shouldnt be talked about, not now. You are giving the very reason for others accusing us for Greater Albania.

You have your radicals too Alboswe, and this Kommendant is one of them.

What I am hoping is that moderate voices on both sides can be heard and hammer out something.

No one is going to accept a Greater Albanian any more than a Greater Serbia or a Greater German Reich.

Why would be need it anyway? Liberals and moderates in the Balkans are all hoping to take their countries into the EU as soon as possible. With Serbia and Albania in the EU Kosovo - like Northern Ireland - would become a much more politically stable, solvable situation.

[asch]

Who's accusing us? Some forumers online? Yet these fools don't even know the exact meaning of "greater" Albania.
what's your problem? can't behave on forums - don't write here at all. insulting forum members is not a best way to gain support.

We simply desire albanian populated lands to unite with Albania. yess, let's unite all chinatowns to China too. and we Russkies demand Brighton Beach. p-)

If we had ambitions to take over Bosnia, Bulgaria or something of that sort, then it would be considered "Greater Albania". Regardless of who accuses of what online(which is a joke.), who's going to do anything to stop it? Nobody.
you will be truly and deeply surprised, but there is such things as international community, which is not applause to rogue states.
and i'm sure that, say, in N. Ireland there was some brick-tops saying same thing about their country. still it's UK, honey.

All they can do is threaten to ban a person from a forum because I said Kosova belongs to Albania. :roll:
not, it's because you just yet another "Albanian" troll who don't even live there but found acceptable to write laughable hooray-patriotic posts without any contribution to forum.

[Komandant]

what's your problem? can't behave on forums - don't write here at all. insulting forum members is not a best way to gain support.
yess, let's unite all chinatowns to China too. and we Russkies demand Brighton Beach. p-)

you will be truly and deeply surprised, but there is such things as international community, which is not applause to rogue states.
and i'm sure that, say, in N. Ireland there was some brick-tops saying same thing about their country. still it's UK, honey.

not, it's because you just yet another "Albanian" troll who don't even live there but found acceptable to write laughable hooray-patriotic posts without any contribution to forum.

Its frustrating to talk to a bunch of ignorant people who try to have political debates with other people, yet they don't even know the definition of the simplest words of English.

You ruskies can't have Brighton Beach. You immigrated there plus it's a bit far from your "Mother Russia" homeland even though you guys turned that area into a dump. ;)

[Vorian]

Albanians also immigrated to Kossovo....by your logic they shouldn't have any right for independence as well.

Besides, Albania has enough problems already, they don't need another problematic region to spend money on. Better try fixing their economy to keep the youth in the country, there are 8,5 million Albanians abroad, while only 3,5 million remain back home.

[Komandant]

Albanians also immigrated to Kossovo....by your logic they shouldn't have any right for independence as well.

Besides, Albania has enough problems already, they don't need another problematic region to spend money on. Better try fixing their economy to keep the youth in the country, there are 8,5 million Albanians abroad, while only 3,5 million remain back home.

Immigrated to Kosova according to whom huh? Don't give me that BS, it was the Slavs who migrated to the Balkans from Siberia. Not us. We are not a nation of 3.5 but a nation of over 8 million alone in the Balkan region.

[BW2]

Ignore this troll please, he lives off peoples nerves...
Mods will take care of him.

[asch]

You ruskies can't have Brighton Beach. You immigrated there plus it's a bit far from your "Mother Russia" homeland even though you guys turned that area into a dump. ;)
you know, i some time ago was banned from here for letting some troll to sample it's own medicine, i.e. talking to him with his own language. i will not make same mistake again. enjoy yourself, forum macho, but try to understand that by your childish posts you damage overall Albanian reputation here.

oh, yes, insert wink smiley here.

[AlboSwe]

I have noticed that this is a trend for USA-living Albanians.

I really doubt that, its the same where ever you may find Albanians. Mostly where large dispora Albanians live, the nationalist belifs seems stronger, same with mostly all Balkan people.

[AlboSwe]

You have your radicals too Alboswe, and this Kommendant is one of them.

What I am hoping is that moderate voices on both sides can be heard and hammer out something.

No one is going to accept a Greater Albanian any more than a Greater Serbia or a Greater German Reich.

Why would be need it anyway? Liberals and moderates in the Balkans are all hoping to take their countries into the EU as soon as possible. With Serbia and Albania in the EU Kosovo - like Northern Ireland - would become a much more politically stable, solvable situation.

I agree with you one some points, but why can't Kosova join the EU just like Albania and Serbia instead of being under a nations sovereignty? We all know what happend in the 90s, it wont simply work. But I belive we would work better together as neighbours since Kosova already has its biggest import partner - Serbia.

[AlboSwe]

Albanians also immigrated to Kossovo....by your logic they shouldn't have any right for independence as well.

Would you show me reliable sources?

[gregoralex]

One article about Kosov independence of recent China's popular magazine World Military (08-No.02) says that Kosov is the cradle of Serbia civilization,is it true?

[limbic]

I really doubt that, its the same where ever you may find Albanians. Mostly where large dispora Albanians live, the nationalist belifs seems stronger, same with mostly all Balkan people.

This is true of everyone and extremely true of the Balkans.

I call these children of refugees wo fight each other online "The Lost Generation (http://www.limbicnutrition.com/blog/youtube-banned-in-turkey-after-video-insults-times-online/)". Go to Vrsac and ask Serbs at Hemofarm what they think about Albanians and you will hear tales of incredible hospitality, openness, beautiful Tirana girls and destroyed prejudices. Why? They have all spent time with in Albania and met fantastic Albanians who destroyed their prejudices. The same is true for Albanians in Belgrade. One particularly famous young beauty from Shkodra (Izi, take a bow) did more for Serbo-Albanian détente than 100 Presidential peace speeches.

It is isolation and ignorance that fuels these Balkan bigotries, and that isolation is massively multiplied when people find themselves cut off from their cultures in a foreign country.

That is why relaxed visas rules, student exchange programs and economic empowerment (allowing travel) are so important.

[limbic]

One article about Kosov independence of recent China's popular magazine World Military (08-No.02) says that Kosov is the cradle of Serbia civilization,is it true?

The consensus is that Kosovo has been for at least 1000 years considered by Serbs to be their spiritual heartland even though some claim that the "Kosovo Myth" was created for political purposes rather than there being a sound historical basis to the claim.

My view is that this is no more relevant than the Albanian's claims about the entire Balkans being Illyrians territory .

The distant past is not really helpful in figuring out the rights and wrongs of this situation.

As a pro-Serb I find myself in the strange situation of being outraged by the way in which Kosovo was stolen from Serbia but at the same time convinced that the best thing may now be to just let it go and move on.

I completely understand the Serbs rightful fury at the way they have been treated but at the same time I see the terrible danger of Serbia becoming a dirt poor isolated nationalist pariah state.

If it were done to me I would:


Endorse full independence for Kosovo, with the following conditions:

Financial compensation for the illegal and wrongful bombing by NATO
Full acknowledgement that putative Serbian crimes in Kosovo were massively over stated.
Full recognition that the Republic of Serbia is surrendering its rightful sovereignty over its province of Kosovo in the interests of peace and stability and with the understand that its sovereignty and territory is henceforth fixed forever.
Immediate fast-track accession status for Serbia AND Kosovo into the EU
Kosovo would remain a sovereign state until at least 2030
UN/NATO funded peacekeeping mission to guarantee the safety of minorities (Gora, Roma and Serbs) until 2030 or the Serbia Parliament agrees to a mission end.
World Heritage Status for remaining Serbian Churches and monasteries with permanent guards and protection.
Harsh hate crime legislation to be part of the Kosovo law guaranteeing safety for all against ethnic violence.
Right of return and/or full restitution for deracinated Serbs
15 year energy and mineral rights concessions for the Republic or Serbia
Guaranteed investments and structural loans to bootstrap Sustainable Economic Development (Business Process Outsourcing, Renewable Energy, Hi Tech Low Infrastructure Industries)
That the EU funds a full transport and infrastructure upgrade to Serbian sections of corridors 10 and 8 to include redundant fibre links to Timishoara, Sarajevo, Banja Luka, Budapest and Zagreb.
Serbia to retain Free Trade Agreements with Russian Federation and the EU with the exclusive right to conduit trade for Serbian manufactured or produced goods.
A UN/NATO funded Peace and Reconciliation Commission to resolve and finally account for 20th Century Balkan History and end the ludicrous anti-Serb bias in the narrative of the Yugoslav wars.I think that would go along way to satisfying rightful Serbian outrage over Kosovo.

[Vorian]

Would you show me reliable sources?

Not right now, I am somewhat busy this period, I only login for a while, so I can't go searching. However it has been stated many times that most Albanians settled in Kossovo during the Ottoman times, and there was also an increase during Yugoslavic era, since situation in Albania was awful.


Now don't give me the "Kossovo is an ancient Albanian homeland", if we accept Albanians and Illyrians are connected (I do but it's still not certain) and Illyrian territories are Albanian homelands then you need to create a state up until Croatia.

[V.I.D.]

limbic,
though I can see your point and at least partially agree with your pragmatism, it is this very meaning of Kosovo that makes Serbs who they are today. I will try to explain briefly here why this matter cannot even be rationalized as it stands for much more than just territory for Serbs. Even if one forgets historical, cultural, and religious aspects of Kosovo to Serbs (Battle of Kosovo in 1389, Decani, Gracanica, Dusan's court and palace, the Seat of Patriarchy, the central territory and foundation of the old Serbian kingdom/empire, etc.) it is this idea of something higher than one's life that preserved and united the Serbs as a nation (one can argue of something similar, albeit on smaller scale, in the case of Joan of Arc as a starting point of a common French identity).

On the emotional and cultural scale, I would say that Serbs simply would lose their identity by "giving up" Kosovo. It is a sort of mandatory moral obligation for any Serb, if you will, a part of collective memory that Serbian nobility perished by willingly going into the battle against superior "infidel Asiatic hordes" (i.e. Ottomans). It is this idea of a past glory, of a sacrifice committed for the future Serbian generations against the powerful aggressor that maintain the Serbian identity during the Ottoman yoke (even though some nationalists liked to stretch it to "defending the whole Europe", though I doubt that was the primary intention when facing the Ottomans on the field of Kosovo more than six centuries ago). This idea of one's duty to revenge Kosovo warriors was the source of strength for Serbian soldier ever since the battle and later loss of sovereignty to the Ottomans, the Kosovo heroic/epic poems were read and memorized in Serbian homes throughout the centuries, from Dalmatia and Krajina anti-Turk Serb fighters in 15th,16th and 17th century (fighting for the Austrians at their military frontier in today's Croatia), through Serbian rebellions in 19th century and re-gaining of independence from the Ottomans, all the way to WWI, WW2 and the latest NATO bombing of Serbia in 1999. Hence, it cannot even be compared to giving away Virginia or Alamo to Mexicans, or getting Granada back from the Moors (for the Spaniards). Thus, perhaps the only adequate comparison that can be heard a lot nowadays is "Serbian Jerusalem". An anecdote says that when Serbian soldiers marched onto the Kosovo field following the successful offensive against Turks in 1912, they fell down and kissed the ground below them.

So, it is the meaning of Kosovo sacrifice that preserved Serbs as a nation through the worst times and desire to never give up in returning it from the Ottomans. Hence, for most of Serb people to "lose it" or to "give it up" is to stop being who you are, that is, to lose your identity and betray the idea of a heroic stand for what is right (heroism, self-respect, willing sacrifice) and fight the enemy/aggressor despite the unflattering odds, rather than cave in under pressure (and to accept materialistic gifts/compensation of more money/power at the price of losing one's soul/integrity). This is the main reason why no self-respecting Serb politician/government will ever accept this forceful "independence" since it is not about territory at all, but about things much, much more important than that. I hope this at least partially explains a rationale (or the irrational devotion to the idea if you will) about Kosovo's sanctity and importance for the Serbs.

Beside from what is written above, I would argue that 2 most important points are:
1. Serbs simply would stop being Serbs by losing the most important part of their identity, that is, this higher meaning about the bravery/sacrifice in the midst of an overwhelming danger, hence losing the core national trait (not to mention that "giving up" would be considered weakness and invitation to further disintegration per Balkan standards).
2. Kosovo Albanians simply did not deserve the independence, regardless of Serbian historical claims and respect for the international law (17-20th March 2004, constant repression of non-Albanian population, drug, arms, and women trafficking, links with islamic terrorists, etc.). Still, they do deserve the highest possible autonomy there is and I frankly believe that their smartest move would be to accept the more than generous offer from Belgrade, that is, to be practically independent from Belgrade and have full control over their lives and future without interference. Anything more or anything less than that would not create a compromise or make for a lasting peace in Balkans.

[Vorian]

I just watched a documentary about Kosovo in TV. What really impressed me is the bad luck for Albanians in the matter of resources.

Their electricity plant not only doesn't provide enough energy for all the area, but to function needs water from a nearby lake in the Serbian side, as do the 60% of the houses. Naturally Serbs threaten to cut the water supply.

More, it seems there is a vast mine complex that again lies north and many Kosovars wait for investors to revive it (it seems it's quite profitable) but half mines are also in the Serbian side. What a mess!!

[AlboSwe]

2. Kosovo Albanians simply did not deserve the independence, regardless of Serbian historical claims and respect for the international law (17-20th March 2004, constant repression of non-Albanian population, drug, arms, and women trafficking, links with islamic terrorists, etc.). Still, they do deserve the highest possible autonomy there is and I frankly believe that their smartest move would be to accept the more than generous offer from Belgrade, that is, to be practically independent from Belgrade and have full control over their lives and future without interference. Anything more or anything less than that would not create a compromise or make for a lasting peace in Balkans.

Does would be a more appropriate word since its not Independent (yet).

You brought up International law, where was that law when Miloshevic went amok with his campaign "hors shoe"? From your view point I can understad you would most propably only bring the victimized Serbs and prior to -99 what Albanian went thru wasnt true, more a myth and KLA terrorist was responseble for all this mess with their radical Islamic links, would you give me a break? Kosova deserve its Independence as all former republic the same day Miloshevic striped aways its autonomy status. Today its to late and its nothing that can make K-Albanians going back to Serbian rule, it wont just happend.

[AlboSwe]

More, it seems there is a vast mine complex that again lies north and many Kosovars wait for investors to revive it (it seems it's quite profitable) but half mines are also in the Serbian side. What a mess!!

Yes it is...


Kosovo's Trepca has reserves worth 13 billion euros

Prishtina, 19 December 2007 - Kosovo's mining complex Trepca has at least €3 billion mineral reserves more than what the estimates of the Ministry of Energy and Mining (MEM) show, reported kosovar daily Koha Ditore. These data were made public by experts of the Independent Commission for Mines and Minerals (ICMM), who referred to a feasibility study for Trepca. “The study demonstrates that Trepca has reserves worth €13 billion. But we believe they are even higher,” the member of ICMM Board, Ibush Jonuzi, was quoted as saying.
The feasibility study on Trepca has been conducted by local and international experts in June 2006. It has never been fully published because it contains data on Trepca’s internal financial matters. The paper reports that the data on Trepca’s mineral reserves, presented by MEM, some time ago, were lower, namely €10 billion.
The paper also reports on the airborne geophysical survey conducted recently by ICMM. The survey showed that Kosovo has an unexpected potential of metals and minerals. Especially gold, nickel and chrome deposits under Kosovo’s surface seem to be larger than known so far.
ECIKS / Koha Ditore
http://www.eciks.org//english/lajme.php?action=total_news&main_id=758

[BW2]

Does would be a more appropriate word since its not Independent (yet).

You brought up International law, where was that law when Miloshevic went amok with his campaign "hors shoe"? From your view point I can understad you would most propably only bring the victimized Serbs and prior to -99 what Albanian went thru wasnt true, more a myth and KLA terrorist was responseble for all this mess with their radical Islamic links, would you give me a break? Kosova deserve its Independence as all former republic the same day Miloshevic striped aways its autonomy status. Today its to late and its nothing that can make K-Albanians going back to Serbian rule, it wont just happend.

Thats a matter of strong debate, first off the reported deaths of Albanians in Kosovo was incredibly inflated, at one point reported at 100 000 (prior to Nato intervention) Currently the "majority" adopted number is 10 000 and even that number appears to be inflated.

Operation Horse Shoe was not intended to expel Albanians from Serbia, did it happen? In some rare cases, yes it did. Its main goal was to wipe out the KLA terror cells.

I suggest people take some time to read this very interesting article - - http://worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=59675

[limbic]

limbic,
though I can see your point and at least partially agree with your pragmatism, it is this very meaning of Kosovo that makes Serbs who they are today...

V.I.D,

Thank you very much for that very interesting post. If I get a chance later I might have a few questions for you.

[V.I.D.]

limbic,
you're most welcome.

Alboswe, I meant did not deserve as in "did not show any act/commitment that shows that they deserved independence up until today" (no higher moral ground as seen after June '99, not even going back into the history - KLA, SS units in the WW2, terror prior to 1912, etc.)
I never said Milosevic was a nice guy or anything such. However, if I am getting it right, you claim that he is the reason international law should be breeched. It simply does not work that way, not to mention that Thaci just recently stated in NY that "Kosovo Albanians were fighting for the independence since 1912". Well, Milosevic was not even born at that time. If we talk about the desire for separate country based on the death toll, then we can talk about 1/2 to a million of massacred Serbs in WW2 (it appears that by your logic modern Croatia would cease to exist forever after such atrocities), Kurds, numerous other nations that suffered injustices, those that just recently died in the Bosnian war (why RS can't be independent as well?). I am not a zealot or anything, but there is simply no legal nor moral basis for your independence (there's no need to even talk about sustainability of a such state). I really hope things work out for everyone's advantage, but I am not too much of an optimist at all.

[cinoeye]

limbic,
you're most welcome.

Alboswe, I meant did not deserve as in "did not show any act/commitment that shows that they deserved independence up until today" (no higher moral ground as seen after June '99, not even going back into the history - KLA, SS units in the WW2, terror prior to 1912, etc.)
I never said Milosevic was a nice guy or anything such. However, if I am getting it right, you claim that he is the reason international law should be breeched. It simply does not work that way, not to mention that Thaci just recently stated in NY that "Kosovo Albanians were fighting for the independence since 1912". Well, Milosevic was not even born at that time. If we talk about the desire for separate country based on the death toll, then we can talk about 1/2 to a million of massacred Serbs in WW2 (it appears that by your logic modern Croatia would cease to exist forever after such atrocities), Kurds, numerous other nations that suffered injustices, those that just recently died in the Bosnian war (why RS can't be independent as well?). I am not a zealot or anything, but there is simply no legal nor moral basis for your independence (there's no need to even talk about sustainability of a such state). I really hope things work out for everyone's advantage, but I am not too much of an optimist at all.

Right on the $!
:)

[Freedom-Fries]

Both Serbian PM and President visited Kosova last year, why would Albania's President be any different or strange? different political histories

[KoTeMoRe]

limbic,
you're most welcome.

Alboswe, I meant did not deserve as in "did not show any act/commitment that shows that they deserved independence up until today" (no higher moral ground as seen after June '99, not even going back into the history - KLA, SS units in the WW2, terror prior to 1912, etc.)
I never said Milosevic was a nice guy or anything such. However, if I am getting it right, you claim that he is the reason international law should be breeched. It simply does not work that way, not to mention that Thaci just recently stated in NY that "Kosovo Albanians were fighting for the independence since 1912". Well, Milosevic was not even born at that time. If we talk about the desire for separate country based on the death toll, then we can talk about 1/2 to a million of massacred Serbs in WW2 (it appears that by your logic modern Croatia would cease to exist forever after such atrocities), Kurds, numerous other nations that suffered injustices, those that just recently died in the Bosnian war (why RS can't be independent as well?). I am not a zealot or anything, but there is simply no legal nor moral basis for your independence (there's no need to even talk about sustainability of a such state). I really hope things work out for everyone's advantage, but I am not too much of an optimist at all.

Unfortunately you got yourselves in the wrong side of the New World Order. As an albanian-born I deeply regret the current situation especially given the fact we're all supposed to abandon our boundaries in joining the EU. So this issue is pretty much a step backwards. The whole idea of Kosovar independence is like Texas overrun by Latin american US citizen asked for it in the face of the USA.

Again I'm getting more concerned with the future of the region (especially knowing who the Kosovars have elected as their leaders).

[V.I.D.]

Kotemore,
I respect your honesty in discussing the issue. I also wish that things are not being the way they are right now, but the contemporary reality is quite different. Let us all hope for the best.

[KoTeMoRe]

Kotemore,
I respect your honesty in discussing the issue. I also wish that things are not being the way they are right now, but the contemporary reality is quite different. Let us all hope for the best.

Sure, that's why my only hope rests within the region, not the "foreign powers".

Ironically during the Isolation Years in Albania the regime looked with great envy towards what was then Yugoslavia. Guess what, now we don't even have that "general direction" to look at.

A part from the EU mirage, the only thing left in my opinion is Peace. Enforcing peace should pass by a confederal, self interested approach of the region not an historical pissing contest. Granted we have both a lot to lose with Kosovars running amok, their independance on their paws and their trans-atlantic allegiance. Think of it as Liberia in Africa. A nightmare. The Balkanic Transdnistria.

That worries me more than the Serbians threatening military action or the jurisprudential issue with a Kosovar unilateral independence.

[AlboSwe]

Kosovo 'ready' for independence, Serbia warns against


New York - Kosovo Prime Minister Hashim Thaci said the province was ready to unilaterally declare independence, but Serb President Boris Tadic warned the UN Security Council Wednesday that recognizing such a move would lead to unwanted consequences around the world. "Kosovo is ready, is united," Thaci told reporters after addressing a closed-door council meeting, but he would not give a specific date.

"We soon will take a decision," he said.

Both Tadic and Thaci travelled to New York to attend the Security Council meeting, which was called to review the UN mission in Kosovo. Only Tadic - as the representative of a bona fide state - was allowed to address the 15-nation council publicly.

Tadic warned that a move toward independence would encourage secession attempts by other ethnic minorities around the world.

"A unilateral recognition of Kosovo independence would no doubt be a precedent," he said. "Any hasty unilateral declaration of independence would lead to unforeseen consequences for ethnic separatism as well."

Tadic said Serbia would "never" recognize Kosovo as a nation, but the United States, which supports Kosovo's independence, said it hoped the two would find a way to coexist.

"Those two entities are neighbours. They will have to deal together," the US ambassador to the UN, Zalmay Khalilzad, told reporters. "Every effort has to be made ... to make sure that the situation remains peaceful."

Khalilzad said the council remained "blocked" over how to resolve Kosovo's status and could no longer act as the proper venue for dealing with the issue. Kosovo has split the council into two camps, with the European members and the United States favouring independence while Russia and China are opposed.

While Tadic has promised not to resort to violence, Khalilzad also urged Serbia to refrain from "economic measures" that could harm Kosovo, should it declare independence.

Kosovo, whose population is 90 per cent Albanian, has long sought the status of a full-fledged state. Serbia, backed strongly by Russia, is opposed.

Thaci suggested he already viewed Kosovo as an independent state, saying he and Tadic shook hands before the council meetings as equals.

"He's the president of Serbia, I'm the prime minister of Kosovo. We shook hands as leaders of two independent countries," Thaci said.

Tadic said Belgrade is ready to grant Kosovo the "largest and best" autonomy and has offered compromises during rounds of negotiations in the past two years. But he said the talks yielded no results.

Tadic said Serbia wants to prepare for its future as a part of the European Union by seeking an "acceptable solution" to the dispute over Kosovo.

Khalilzad also warned Serbia not to allow developments in Kosovo to "negatively affect" long-term relations with the United States and European countries that support an independent Kosovo.

Tadic was the only speaker in the public meeting. The council then proceeded to the closed-door session to hear Thaci, and mostly likely Tadic if he wanted to pursue his dialogue with the council.

The council met to review work of the UN Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK), which has been assisting the Kosovo Albanian government in Pristina in establishing democratic institutions and organizing elections in close cooperation with European Union groups.

Together with the EU and NATO, the UN has been training a police force for Kosovo of more than 7,000 personnel to maintain security.

But in a report to the 15-nation council in early January, UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon said a solution to Kosovo's future status must be found "rapidly" because the current situation is unsustainable.

"Should the impasse continue, events on the ground could take on a momentum of their own, putting at serious risk the achievements and legacy of the UN in Kosovo," Ban said. "Moving forward with a process to determine Kosovo's future status should remain a high priority for the Security Council and for the international community."

The council met to discuss the report and review results of democratic reforms implemented by the UN mission in Kosovo, which are benchmarks to gauge whether the territory has made enough progress towards democracy.

The council met with both Tadic and Thaci in the past year, when discussion has focused specifically on whether to grant independence to Kosovo. The council last met in December in an attempt to overcome its own differences, but gave up on the ground that the gap was irreconcilable.

Efforts by Britain, France and Germany - the EU troika - Russia and the United States have so far failed to break the impasse between Serb and Kosovo leaders.

http://www.earthtimes.org/articles/show/174656,kosovo-ready-for-independence-serbia-warns-against--summary.html