Forget oil, the new global crisis is food

[CG51]

Forget oil, the new global crisis is food (http://www.nationalpost.com/news/story.html?id=213343)

BMO strategist Donald Coxe warns credit crunch and soaring oil prices will pale in comparison to looming catastrophe

A new crisis is emerging, a global food catastrophe that will reach further and be more crippling than anything the world has ever seen. The credit crunch and the reverberations of soaring oil prices around the world will pale in comparison to what is about to transpire, Donald Coxe, global portfolio strategist at BMO Financial Group said at the Empire Club's 14th annual investment outlook in Toronto on Thursday.

"It's not a matter of if, but when," he warned investors. "It's going to hit this year hard."

Mr. Coxe said the sharp rise in raw food prices in the past year will intensify in the next few years amid increased demand for meat and dairy products from the growing middle classes of countries such as China and India as well as heavy demand from the biofuels industry.

"The greatest challenge to the world is not US$100 oil; it's getting enough food so that the new middle class can eat the way our middle class does, and that means we've got to expand food output dramatically," he said.
The impact of tighter food supply is already evident in raw food prices, which have risen 22% in the past year.

Mr. Coxe said in an interview that this surge would begin to show in the prices of consumer foods in the next six months. Consumers already paid 6.5% more for food in the past year.

Wheat prices alone have risen 92% in the past year, and yesterday closed at US$9.45 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade.

At the centre of the imminent food catastrophe is corn - the main staple of the ethanol industry. The price of corn has risen about 44% over the past 15 months, closing at US$4.66 a bushel on the CBOT yesterday - its best finish since June 1996.

This not only impacts the price of food products made using grains, but also the price of meat, with feed prices for livestock also increasing.
"You're going to have real problems in countries that are food short, because we're already getting embargoes on food exports from countries, who were trying desperately to sell their stuff before, but now they're embargoing exports," he said, citing Russia and India as examples.
"Those who have food are going to have a big edge."

With 54% of the world's corn supply grown in America's mid-west, the U.S. is one of those countries with an edge.

But Mr. Coxe warned U.S. corn exports were in danger of seizing up in about three years if the country continues to subsidize ethanol production. Biofuels are expected to eat up about a third of America's grain harvest in 2007.

The amount of U.S. grain currently stored for following seasons was the lowest on record, relative to consumption, he said.
"You should be there for it fully-hedged by having access to those stocks that benefit from rising food prices."

He said there are about two dozen stocks in the world that are going to redefine the world's food supplies, and "those stocks will have a precious value as we move forward."

Mr. Coxe said crop yields around the world need to increase to something close to what is achieved in the state of Illinois, which produces over 200 corn bushes an acre compared with an average 30 bushes an acre in the rest of the world.

"That will be done with more fertilizer, with genetically modified seeds, and with advanced machinery and technology," he said.

[Tokamak]

I keep hearing bad things about biofuels. Why on earth some governments keep supporting them?. I guess one answer is money.

[Shadowstorm]

Biofuel is a joke. It creates more harm than good to the enviroment and the food prices like corn and corn products goes up. Trust me I live in Nebraska and their building a lot ethanol plants being built or planning to be built and same with Iowa.

[I'mOnlyHalfPolish]

i thought the new global crisis was access to water

what happened to global warming...?

islamofacism...?

could this just be the new "global crisis" of the hour?

it is amazing how much food we eat is either corn-based or has some form or fashion of corn in it...when in reality corn has little nutritional value when compared to other veggies, although it is very important as feed for cattle, which i imagine the majority goes towards (in itself a problem since cattle's stomachs are not designed to digest corn but grasses and the reason why they are often sick and pumped full of antibiotics, but this is another matter entirely)

in reality corn is not an efficient source as a biofuel b/c the process to make it involves using loads of fossil-fueled power...but its a boom for domestic agriculture (when it would be far better to take away the associated embargoes and tarriffs to import foreign sugar cane to make it from) but such is protectionism

so what is the answer...limit how many children people can have? eat less?

[I'mOnlyHalfPolish]

Biofuel is a joke. It creates more harm than good to the enviroment and the food prices like corn and corn products goes up. Trust me I live in Nebraska and their building a lot ethanol plants being built or planning to be built and same with Iowa.

corn-based is...however, i imagine some odd crop will be found to use instead, like switchgrass (which i saw on the history channel), i mean the brazilians are doing wonderful things with sugar cane

i hear it is more efficient to get the fuel from the odd's and end's left over after harvest; stalks, husks and such rather than the kernels

[Dling]

i thought the new global crisis was access to water

what happened to global warming...?

islamofacism...?



those are all predominant problems but really the main problem is the increase of human popluation. think of deer populations when they get too high...nature finds a way to bring it back in control. essentially, if the world was 1/4 of its population there wouldnt be a problem with these things hypothetcially. u can go do donuts in a abram tank for 3 hours and thered still be no global warming.

[Thumpsquid]

Soylent Green, anyone?

[NavyTimes]

I have been saying this for years:

1. We have an energy crunch, which first will make food more expensive, because we use lots of energy in agricultural machinery, to make fertilizer, and to transport food, and so forth.

2. Climate changes that ARE happening (whether they are manmade or not) are causing agricultural output to drop in a lot of the areas around the world where output has been abundant.

2 + 2 = 4.

And btw: Biofuel is a joke.

[Tokamak]

those are all predominant problems but really the main problem is the increase of human popluation. think of deer populations when they get too high...nature finds a way to bring it back in control. essentially, if the world was 1/4 of its population there wouldnt be a problem with these things hypothetcially. u can go do donuts in a abram tank for 3 hours and thered still be no global warming.

Human population and also very importantly our way of live. The idea to buy buy without thinking of the packaging, how it was made, where, what standards were used etc. We are a careless race.

[Tokamak]

corn-based is...however, i imagine some odd crop will be found to use instead, like switchgrass (which i saw on the history channel), i mean the brazilians are doing wonderful things with sugar cane

i hear it is more efficient to get the fuel from the odd's and end's left over after harvest; stalks, husks and such rather than the kernels

But when you start to destroy the rainforest to have a lager production of sugar cane (because they do) then it is not worth it.

[oldsoak]

What doesnt help is the fact we chuck so much food ( and the packaging ) away. We waste like you wouldnt beleive. You look at how diets have changed in the last fifty years and what peoples expectations are. They want perfect this, that ,and the other - wont buy a carrot thats not perfectly formed, dont do left overs etc. We're wasteful to the point of obscenity considering theres others that go hungry most days.
There was a study that reckoned you could get the world into Texas with the population density of London ( I'm, suprised, but apparently so ) and give 'em a decent balanced diet with ease on the worlds farmland.... didnt say what would be done with the sewage of course...:-)

[3rdMillhouse]

Biofuel is a joke. It creates more harm than good to the enviroment and the food prices like corn and corn products goes up. Trust me I live in Nebraska and their building a lot ethanol plants being built or planning to be built and same with Iowa.

Wait, you're considering only ethanol, but you gotta remmeber there's other stuff. Such as the BioDiesel, wich uses frying oil as fuel.

[CG51]

What doesnt help is the fact we chuck so much food ( and the packaging ) away. We waste like you wouldnt beleive. You look at how diets have changed in the last fifty years and what peoples expectations are. They want perfect this, that ,and the other - wont buy a carrot thats not perfectly formed, dont do left overs etc. We're wasteful to the point of obscenity considering theres others that go hungry most days.
There was a study that reckoned you could get the world into Texas with the population density of London ( I'm, suprised, but apparently so ) and give 'em a decent balanced diet with ease on the worlds farmland.... didnt say what would be done with the sewage of course...:-)

You got that right.

I worked in the produce dept of a grocery store for a summer many, many years ago. My young eyes were startled at the amount of waste from that dept alone. If the fruit was not appealing, then it went into the dumpster. Most fruits when fully ripe look like **** but the public won't buy it (not here in the states). Deli also, breads, cakes, ect. have a shelf life of a few days and are tossed if they don't sell.

Now these greedy corporations want to compound the problem (with the governments blessing) buy using agricultural products to produce fuels (a third of the grain produced here!).

It's a damn shame.

[NavyTimes]

Agreed. It is very interesting to read housewife, uhm, "manuals" from 1950 and thereabouts. They were really good about getting the most out of their resources.

[Herrmannek]

This must be truth... My fridge is empty

[I'mOnlyHalfPolish]

But when you start to destroy the rainforest to have a lager production of sugar cane (because they do) then it is not worth it.


then we'll just get it from Cuba...oh wait, there is that "unpleasantness"...nevermind

well with all of the grass mowing, tree trimming, stump grinding and desposal among other things in the US...you figure some of these could be useful, although they wouldnt be enough, no doubt, but you can get alcohol from any form of flora, i believe...but through efficient means not so much...really all it can do is provide filler for fossil fuels due to low availability of such things

[I'mOnlyHalfPolish]

What doesnt help is the fact we chuck so much food ( and the packaging ) away. We waste like you wouldnt beleive. You look at how diets have changed in the last fifty years and what peoples expectations are. They want perfect this, that ,and the other - wont buy a carrot thats not perfectly formed, dont do left overs etc. We're wasteful to the point of obscenity considering theres others that go hungry most days.
There was a study that reckoned you could get the world into Texas with the population density of London ( I'm, suprised, but apparently so ) and give 'em a decent balanced diet with ease on the worlds farmland.... didnt say what would be done with the sewage of course...:-)

hey don't try to crowd my state with the world's population! i guess they didnt address hygiene either!

the US is not-so-surprisingly sparse, especially texas where people still ::GASP:: own large tracts of land

i do think the US for certain could benefit greatly from denser population zones/cities especially considering where i live everything is done by automobile because of the lack of pop. density (a good reason for the massive amounts of fossil fuel use)

anyone that has been to the US can attest to the fact that it has been developed around the automobile ("car culture"), not so great for said environment, and a lot of good ariable land now has rows of oversized homes on it

but that is the nature of our individualistic attitude

[Ulytau]

Climates are changin seriously..Not sure i start to think some people found how they can took their money to other life when they dead..There was a snow in Baghdat when Icelands map changin..This quote enough for expressin everything i think..“Only when the last tree has been felled, the last river poisoned and the last fish caught, man will know, that he cannot eat money”.-Old Indian Chief ''Cree Tribe''

[I'mOnlyHalfPolish]

Climates are changin seriously..Not sure i start to think some people found how they can took their money to other life when they dead..There was a snow in Baghdat when Icelands map changin..This quote enough for expressin everything i think..“Only when the last tree has been felled, the last river poisoned and the last fish caught, man will know, that he cannot eat money”.-Old Indian Chief ''Cree Tribe''

well if it is man-made, i wonder how the world will address a beligerent population of 1.4 billion chinese...? they are growing an insatiable appetite for both oil and coal that will eventually be on-par and if things go as currently will surpass the US

what does the world community do? probably nothing, b/c it seems we can never agree on anything :)

(not trying to pass blame away from the US, if it is man-made then we are at much fault for it...but i think the chinese could soon overlap the US in a carbon output race)

[seraosha]

Yeah, and we see how successful the Cree tribe was maintaining it's cultural relevance. Just keep your tree hugging fingers crossed for the avian flu to jump species and cause a "die back" of "Permo-Triassic" perportions.

That'll teach you for not taking a bus to work.
:roll:

[I'mOnlyHalfPolish]

Yeah, and we see how successful the Cree tribe was maintaining it's cultural relevance. Just keep your tree hugging fingers crossed for the avian flu to jump species and cause a "die back" of "Permo-Triassic" perportions.

That'll teach you for not taking a bus to work.
:roll:

ouch, i feel the hate, i wasn't trying to deflect blame, i was just stating that it will be a very hard, uphill battle to change attitudes and loads of money into infrastructure to make said changes, and i means loooooads of dinero!

i no longer feel the love.............

[seraosha]

Aw man, feel the love...I'm too cynical.
I think that without a population correction, all other topics are pissing in the wind.

[Ulytau]

well if it is man-made, i wonder how the world will address a beligerent population of 1.4 billion chinese...? they are growing an insatiable appetite for both oil and coal that will eventually be on-par and if things go as currently will surpass the US

what does the world community do? probably nothing, b/c it seems we can never agree on anything :)

(not trying to pass blame away from the US, if it is man-made then we are at much fault for it...but i think the chinese could soon overlap the US in a carbon output race)

It wasnt about USA too bro..Only i think you remember United Nations and some scientist works about effect of Global Warming to World and some businessman tried to bribe to them for saying lie this is why i said this :DEveryone have responsibility about this,blaming to someone never change anything..About Population 1800s ''1 Billion ''All World''1999 6 Billion and 2010 it will be 7.2 billion.Historical documents and researchs are showin climate changin is totally normal in time period..

[I'mOnlyHalfPolish]

Historical documents and researchs are showin climate changin is totally normal in time period..

I have read this as well, it seems there is so much information out there that is going against the "man-made" cause

i think the reason why man-made climate change is so important is that there is a lot of money floating around that scientists can be given if they are able to link their research to "man-made climate change" and as a result of the popularity of the theory, this is why we see so much research about it

but i have seen numerous other scientists say it is a natural process and that in reality the sun and the oceans are are far more to blame for global warming than humans but a lot of these seientists are afraid to "go against the grain" and say that their research says otherwise

[Ulytau]

Yeah..Man making this faster..For example about Iceland there was first world map which drawed from Piri Reis at 1513&1528 ''Turkish Navy Amiral'' Iceland was two part today one part and gonna be two part again..Honestly in these year when people seen rain or snow they were beein happy lol..

[Tokamak]

well if it is man-made, i wonder how the world will address a beligerent population of 1.4 billion chinese...? they are growing an insatiable appetite for both oil and coal that will eventually be on-par and if things go as currently will surpass the US

what does the world community do? probably nothing, b/c it seems we can never agree on anything :)

(not trying to pass blame away from the US, if it is man-made then we are at much fault for it...but i think the chinese could soon overlap the US in a carbon output race)


China currently produce more carbon than the US, that was published a few months ago.

Not because someone doesn't follow the law or do the right thing means you should do the same. If China gives a crap for the environment so be it, at the end it will fire back.

About existing data agains climate change. I will try to quote something I read on Nature last year. "There is no current debate on the existance of climate change in any scientific publication, all the debate exists in non-scientific publications". It was something like this.

Ice is melting in an alarming rate faster than any reading in the past. I am not talking about recording made by made but by those extracted from the ice in the north and south pole.

[I'mOnlyHalfPolish]

Yeah..Man making this faster..For example about Iceland there was first world map which drawed from Piri Reis at 1513&1528 ''Turkish Navy Amiral'' Iceland was two part today one part and gonna be two part again..Honestly in these year when people seen rain or snow they were beein happy lol..

interesting, i was never aware of this map, the author seems to have drawn europe, africa and south america with great accuracy (especially with their extent of knowledge of the continents at the time)

unfortunately the copy that wikipedia had did not include the far north, i think i can see iceland like you said...very interesting

thanks for the map, its always good to learn something new :)

[I'mOnlyHalfPolish]

China currently produce more carbon than the US, that was published a few months ago.

Not because someone doesn't follow the law or do the right thing means you should do the same. If China gives a crap for the environment so be it, at the end it will fire back.

About existing data agains climate change. I will try to quote something I read on Nature last year. "There is no current debate on the existance of climate change in any scientific publication, all the debate exists in non-scientific publications". It was something like this.

Ice is melting in an alarming rate faster than any reading in the past. I am not talking about recording made by made but by those extracted from the ice in the north and south pole.

well, i am not knowledgable enough to debate the evidence in full...i have just seen some conflicting reports on the subject...specifically a panel of scientists on a new-magazine show in the US and a British documentary on it, which seems to lean towards the Sun and the oceans as the true culprit and the cyclical nature of the Earth (hot and cold) and to go very far back in the climatic history of the Earth (accurately) is often difficult and we must rely on theories

something must be done, true or not, we will be living quite differently if it continues...also, if it for some reason is discovered not to be true, then we are holding developing nations back from creating economies (unfortunately most heavy industry cannot be run on small solar panels or wind power, well NOT YET at least or not cheaply enough to be viable currently)

it all takes money, time and agreement of all worldly parties

[The Dane]

On Greenland farmers have started growing potatoes, carrots and other stuff.
The ice is melting pretty rapidly.
Maybe Greenland soon can live up to it's name.
p-)

[Tokamak]

On Greenland farmers have started growing potatoes, carrots and other stuff.
The ice is melting pretty rapidly.
Maybe Greenland soon can live up to it's name.
p-)


The problem is that in many other areas people can't keep the same level of production due to either excessive rain or the lack of it to say the least.

[Albatross]

Biofuels are still possible. We need to engineer a fuel that can be grown where food can not be grown. (i.e. side of sheer cliff or the middle of the desert.)

[SOG]

i predict the next global crisis will be... are you ready for this?

everything! because there are too many damn people period! prices will continue to rise on just about everything that is used by common people. not exactly rocket science here. metals, food, oil, wood etc. everything. simple.

[I'mOnlyHalfPolish]

Biofuels are still possible. We need to engineer a fuel that can be grown where food can not be grown. (i.e. side of sheer cliff or the middle of the desert.)

i say we go back to whale oil...its not like the damned whales have done anything for me lately!

especially those murderous killer whales!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=shnZvQiXajA

[Tokamak]

well, i am not knowledgable enough to debate the evidence in full...i have just seen some conflicting reports on the subject...specifically a panel of scientists on a new-magazine show in the US and a British documentary on it, which seems to lean towards the Sun and the oceans as the true culprit and the cyclical nature of the Earth (hot and cold) and to go very far back in the climatic history of the Earth (accurately) is often difficult and we must rely on theories

something must be done, true or not, we will be living quite differently if it continues...also, if it for some reason is discovered not to be true, then we are holding developing nations back from creating economies (unfortunately most heavy industry cannot be run on small solar panels or wind power, well NOT YET at least or not cheaply enough to be viable currently)

it all takes money, time and agreement of all worldly parties

Oceans have a big big impact on the planet. Did you watch the movie the day after tomorrow? in that movie they mentioned a theory that do exist. Floodings are not the only thing that will produce the ice melting, small changes in salinity and temperature of the ocean can have and are having devastating effects. There are already a good number of reports showing the possible effects (also read them in Nature).

I have seen that some people here don't know of some of the problem. I am not saying I am an expert because I am not, that is not my area of expertise but being subscribed to that Journal is helpful. I hope next month after I have more free time I will put some information together and share it.

[I'mOnlyHalfPolish]

I hope next month after I have more free time I will put some information together and share it. [/COLOR]


yeah, id be interested in seeing that...crunched for time as well, maybe i could learn more about the subject from your compilation...keep us posted on the progress!

[Tokamak]

Biofuels are still possible. We need to engineer a fuel that can be grown where food can not be grown. (i.e. side of sheer cliff or the middle of the desert.)

Why use biofuels when you can use other type of technology that do not create so much problems like solar, wind, etc?. Even nuclear energy is more than a good option.

[Tokamak]

yeah, id be interested in seeing that...crunched for time as well, maybe i could learn more about the subject from your compilation...keep us posted on the progress!

Let me first publish my papers and then I will put others people work here.

[The Dane]

Re. Greenland.
http://www.youtube.com/v/ZI1AA5JzMq0

[Mu-Meson]

weren't they predicting massive food shortages leading to starvation killing billions in, like, the 70's? Pshh! This is just the crisis of the week. Besides, there are more obese people in the world then starving ones.

[Dasein]

There have always been Malthusian predictions about impending food crises, since well, Malthus postulated that food supplies would increase linearly while population increased exponentially. However, so far, large scale food shortage have been avoided as food production has become more efficient. There have been localized famines, of course, but no global food crisis.

However, this doesn't mean we should ignore the issue - if we didn't steadily increase our food production capability, then such predictions could easily have come true.

[oregongrunt]

It understandable, here in Oregon they're turning farmland into subdivisions as fast as the government allows them to, which is a lot.

[T3ngu]

Why use biofuels when you can use other type of technology that do not create so much problems like solar, wind, etc?. Even nuclear energy is more than a good option.

Good point. The eurpoean biofuel target is really hurting places like Papua New Guinea where deforestation is not taken into account in the EU targets.

[Shadowstorm]

Wait, you're considering only ethanol, but you gotta remmeber there's other stuff. Such as the BioDiesel, wich uses frying oil as fuel.
Their working on that too.

[I'mOnlyHalfPolish]

funny thing is where i live currently, is relatively fertile, we have a garden...i could envision expanding it in the future...raked a ton of leaves up from the big oaks in the front and back...was not able to till it but still grew some nice veggies

maybe some of us could go old school, grow and raise our own food to some extent at least stop-gap to fill in for shortage and i live in a residential area (neighborhood) currently so i would not be cutting down forest or anything...think WWII victory gardens

plus with all the trash they put in american meat, antibiotics and steroids...i wouldnt mind raising my own animals

[oldsoak]

funny thing is where i live currently, is relatively fertile, we have a garden...i could envision expanding it in the future...raked a ton of leaves up from the big oaks in the front and back...was not able to till it but still grew some nice veggies

maybe some of us could go old school, grow and raise our own food to some extent at least stop-gap to fill in for shortage and i live in a residential area (neighborhood) currently so i would not be cutting down forest or anything...think WWII victory gardens

plus with all the trash they put in american meat, antibiotics and steroids...i wouldnt mind raising my own animals

- mebbe thats one of the ways forward -even if its only a couple of tomato plants. Look on the bright side - at least you live in a country that can still feed itself. The Uk is screwed - too small and a lot of food comes by sea and air - which requires....oil.
Looking at society, I notice how little time we devote to preparing food other than at weekends. We pick things up from the microwave meals section in a supermarket on the way home because its quick. That and we buy amounts of food we dont need because the supermarket wont sell it in smaller packets - which we proceed to waste. Magnify this millions of times and theres a fair slice of the problem. We just dont have time and we'll end up paying for living in the fast lane. I read an American book a while back called "Back to Basics" and while it might seem a bit too hippy to some, I think there were some good values taught -self reliance and self sufficiency which in turn breed a less wasteful attitude to resources.

[Tokamak]

No doubt this will if not solve, reduce the problem. The problem is that people has become lazy and won’t do this. It’s unfortunate but if we want to save our planet we must change our current way of life.

[Asheren]

Unfortunatly having your own garden requires time and might be not to wise in certain areas unless you like lead, cadmium and other intresting elements from periodic table on your table. Same with old tradition to plant friut trees at roadsides in rural areas. Schools or army units fruit and vegetables gardens are also thing of the past. Same with using wasted food to feed farm animals. Well we can also blame good ol capitalism. Unsold food is destroyed because if it was given to poor peoples, suddenly there would be a lot of "poor peoples" and not soo many peoples buying. Varios norms can also be blamed for it. Like EU infamous bread regulation that ended Polish bakers tradition to give unsold bread to the poor.

[I'mOnlyHalfPolish]

Unfortunatly having your own garden requires time and might be not to wise in certain areas unless you like lead, cadmium and other intresting elements from periodic table on your table. Same with old tradition to plant friut trees at roadsides in rural areas. Schools or army units fruit and vegetables gardens are also thing of the past. Same with using wasted food to feed farm animals. Well we can also blame good ol capitalism. Unsold food is destroyed because if it was given to poor peoples, suddenly there would be a lot of "poor peoples" and not soo many peoples buying. Varios norms can also be blamed for it. Like EU infamous bread regulation that ended Polish bakers tradition to give unsold bread to the poor.

not viable for everyone, but where i am currently it is

[Tokamak]

Unfortunatly having your own garden requires time and might be not to wise in certain areas unless you like lead, cadmium and other intresting elements from periodic table on your table. Same with old tradition to plant friut trees at roadsides in rural areas. Schools or army units fruit and vegetables gardens are also thing of the past. Same with using wasted food to feed farm animals. Well we can also blame good ol capitalism. Unsold food is destroyed because if it was given to poor peoples, suddenly there would be a lot of "poor peoples" and not soo many peoples buying. Varios norms can also be blamed for it. Like EU infamous bread regulation that ended Polish bakers tradition to give unsold bread to the poor.

I didn't know about this. Could you tell me more?.

[Limeyfellow]

The big drought in this region hasn't helped gardens at all. I got about 5% of what I nearly get from last year due to a late coldsnap in the spring and a massive drought all year. Water is a big a problem as anything else and as droughts increase across the world it will only get worse.

[Tokamak]

The big drought in this region hasn't helped gardens at all. I got about 5% of what I nearly get from last year due to a late coldsnap in the spring and a massive drought all year. Water is a big a problem as anything else and as droughts increase across the world it will only get worse.


That's true, we are having flood warnings after what happened last summer!. But hey!!! according to many we shouldn't worry! climate change is something that scientists invented because had nothing better to do.

[CG51]

http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/international/2008/01/21/rivers.thailand.oil.addiction.cnn?iref=videosearch