"British general holds key to Kosovo's future"

[Rostov]

By Thomas Harding in Pristina

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2008/02/11/wkosovo111.xml

Last Updated: 2:31am GMT 11/02/2008

A British general given the key task of preventing bloodshed in Kosovo has warned of the "high stakes" involved as the province prepares to declare independence from Serbia this week.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/graphics/2008/02/11/wkosovo111.jpg
Maj Gen Rutledge: arms fear

With tension in Kosovo building as the ethnic Albanian majority prepares to achieve its centuries-old goal of independence next Sunday, the job of keeping the country's dominant former guerrilla leaders in line has fallen to Maj Gen Martin Rutledge.
"If my office got it wrong we could significantly destabilise events that are going to unfold in the next few months," he told The Daily Telegraph.
"I don't think that's an overstatement. We are playing for quite high stakes."
He not only faces the daunting task of preventing a violent backlash but also has the delicate job of dismissing the majority of the civil defence force's senior officers after independence.

By next weekend it will be seen whether a decade of United Nations protection and the investment of billions of dollars has borne fruit.

It is expected that Kosovo will declare its "supervised" independence, supported by at least 100 countries, in defiance of Serbia and its ally Russia.
Confounded by the inability of Belgrade, the Kosovo Serbs and Albanians to agree to any compromise, the detailed recommendations made by the UN envoy Marrti Ahtisaari will be implemented.
Independence will be welcomed by the Albanians who have "waited 3,000 years" but the Kosovo Serbs are chilled by the prospect and fearful of being driven from their homes in a province historically considered Serbian territory.
To prevent that there are 16,000 UN peacekeepers and it is hoped they will do a better job than they did in 2004 when Serbs were burned out of their homes and at least 19 civilians were killed in ethnic violence.
For the past nine years, the military ambitions of the former Kosovo Liberation Army's leaders have been curtailed by absorbing its commanders into the Kosovo Protection Corps (KPC) - a civil defence force which acts as a fire service and is partly armed.
It also includes 15 generals and 40 colonels out of a force of 3,000. The force is to halve in size after independence.
"If we lost their trust they would have every opportunity to go off and do things we would not want them to," said Maj Gen Rutledge, the KPC's co-ordinator.
"They certainly know where the weapons are and how to get weapons so it is very important to dissolve them with dignity."
The KPC high command could unleash a torrent of ethnic cleansing that would probably see most of the remaining 100,000 Serbs driven out from the population of two million Albanians.
"In this environment it only needs few people to do something inappropriate," Maj Gen Rutledge said at his office in the capital Pristina.
"The KPC will be undoubtedly provoked during this period and I have spent a lot of time explaining why should not be."
But it is not only the soft word offered by the general, who is also the territory's de facto defence minister.
He said: "I will be fairly blunt to the generals that they need to behave and if they don't behave there are various sanctions that I have available to ensure that they do."
Also on standby to deploy is Britain's last remaining reserve battalion, called the Spearhead Lead Element, which could be in Kosovo within 24 hours of an emergency being called.



We can all speculate about different scenarios of a possible war, but what will happen if Serbia simply cuts off Kosovo completly after proclaimed independence?

[TeslaN]

What will happen?

Gaza Strip 2.0

No food, no water, no fuel, no power...the list goes on.

[Kilgor]

Thead lockings and instabans.

[Rostov]

What will happen?

Gaza Strip 2.0

No food, no water, no fuel, no power...the list goes on.

Gaza was never fully cut off. And what I mean is what will happen after there will be no food, fuel or water?

[AlboSwe]

We can all speculate about different scenarios of a possible war, but what will happen if Serbia simply cuts off Kosovo completly after proclaimed independence?

Nothing actually. Albania, Macedonia and Montenegro has agreed to boost Kosova in every field what concerns export/import... and we shall not forget EU. This has been planned for years.


- Serbia would lose 550-600 million euro yearly due of the embargo.

[AlboSwe]

Gaza was never fully cut off. And what I mean is what will happen after there will be no food, fuel or water?

Dude, Kosova is not Gaza... not when you have EU and U.S. behind you. :)

[sosed]

When attack on Iran will happen and 3rd WW will start, than for safe of Europe Greece and Serbia will have to occupy Kosovo and Macedonia, in contrary Balkan and Europe will fall to enemies.

[BW2]

Nothing actually. Albania, Macedonia and Montenegro has agreed to boost Kosova in every field what concerns export/import... and we shall not forget EU. This has been planned for years.


LOL ...yes because we all forgot how economically powerful those countries are. :roll:

Support them? Please.... Albania I can see but hardly understand their logic in terms of their economic stability, last time they tried to help out by letting in Albanians from Kosovo their entire economy nearly collapsed. Macedonia? Please again they have far more importing things to do like prevent terrorist attacks in their country... Montenegro? Don't make me laugh my guts out.

US and EU behind you? ya only so they can push you out of the way and move on to other pressing matters like Afghanistan. In do time Kosovo Albanians will learn the price of the support painstakingly conjured up for Kosovo's UDI. Best part is they seem to think it will all be over with once they do declare it, but oh how wrong they are.

[Rostov]

LOL ...yes because we all forgot how economically powerful those countries are. :roll:

Support them? Please.... Albania I can see but hardly understand their logic in terms of their economic stability, last time they tried to help out by letting in Albanians from Kosovo their entire economy nearly collapsed. Macedonia? Please again they have far more importing things to do like prevent terrorist attacks in their country... Montenegro? Don't make me laugh my guts out.

US and EU behind you? ya only so they can push you out of the way and move on to other pressing matters like Afghanistan. In do time Kosovo Albanians will learn the price of the support painstakingly conjured up for Kosovo's UDI. Best part is they seem to think it will all be over with once they do declare it, but oh how wrong they are.

Interesting point Albo, but i agree with bluewing. I dont think any of the Balkan states would like to be or will be much of help to Kosovo. I can only see US and Europe supply and support Kosovo, but it would to be too artificial and wont last long enough for Kosovo to develop it's self-sustainability.

[ting]

I don`t see the Serbs doing anything aggressive against kosovo unless the EU/Nato is unable to protect the serb minority.

What is interesting is the precedence that is set by Kosovo declaring independence. You have Republica Srbska which could to the same. Then you have the turkish cypriots, Georgia with their brake away provinces. It`s all a serious head ache, which I`m fearful the countries supporting this move has not understood.

I think Kosovo Is declaring independence in the hopes of improving their economical situation. I don`t know what problems would be solved by this move, however I doubt there are many.

It will of course be interesting to see how well the EU can do nation building.

[martinexsquaddie]

what sane options are there?
vast majority of kosovans don't want anything to do with Serbia and will fight to keep Serbia out.
trying to enforce rule by Serbia on a province thats heavily armed and everybody hates the serbs isn't really a plan

[Afro-European]

The same argument can used form people from Transsinistry, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, North Cyprus etc.Yet the West will never recognized them.Why?


what sane options are there?
vast majority of kosovans don't want anything to do with Serbia and will fight to keep Serbia out.
trying to enforce rule by Serbia on a province thats heavily armed and everybody hates the serbs isn't really a plan

[martinexsquaddie]

Northan Cyprus was an invasion by another state so not really self determination
and is not recognized by the UN.
reunification will happen eventually
don't know about the others.
I repeat how would you enforce serbian rule on a population that will try to kill any serbian state representative ?

[Rostov]

Northan Cyprus was an invasion by another state so not really self determination
and is not recognized by the UN.
reunification will happen eventually
don't know about the others.
I repeat how would you enforce serbian rule on a population that will try to kill any serbian state representative ?

Kosovo has not been recognized by UN. Discussion started with what would happen if Kosovo was cut off by Serbia, so why would Kosovians try to kill any Serbians?

[BW2]

I repeat how would you enforce serbian rule on a population that will try to kill any serbian state representative ?

A better question would be if that is the attitude of Kosovo Albanians towards Serbs ("killing any Serb representative") why would any civilized people want them, let alone the UN?

Kosovo belongs to Serbia and always has simple as that. If Albanians in Kosovo cannot comprehend that then tough luck but if they feel they will get what they demand through grossly violent means then they are only proving how undeserving of independence they really are. Remember Albanians are not some nation less people like Palestinians or Kurds, their resolve to fight and make threats has no serious or legitimate meaning in the world today.

Kosovo as a state is doomed to fail. Serbia is never going to recognize nor cooperate with a independent Kosovo and as the regional power hanging right over theirs head it wont spell good things. Kosovo will not get a UN seat, it wont get any other kind of seat (EU,NATO,WTO,IMF etc..) enjoyed by so many other legitimate nations. The Serbs parts in the North will separate (rightfully so) which hold nearly half of the provinces Trepica mine which the west is riding on to be used as some sort of sustainable income and cut the burden of pouring in billions in aid trying to support a black hole basically. It also holds key water supply and its electrical grid is connected and intertwined through out all of Serbia. Our friend AlboSwe is under the illusion that the EU and US will for some odd reason continuously support the province out of....you know... the goodness of their own hearts...

So what happens when the West gets tired of pouring money and achieving no results? Well the only natural thing, you get left behind. The world wont stop spinning for Kosovo's sake. As I said before the support given to K-Albanians is all on their credit now, next comes the I.O.U's.

The reasons explained above are the tip of the iceberg, plenty of more reasons why Kosovo's independence is not only not viable but grossly unjust and wrong.

[martinexsquaddie]

well you can whine all you like any sort of democratic vote by the people who live in kosovo will be for independence.
you tried to force the Albanian population to flee that didn't work and Nato rolled in .
Kosovo won't be Serbian ever again. regional power don't make me laugh the west isn't going to allow any more ethnic cleansing or greater Serbia/Albania etc rubbish. 20 years from now your all be part of the EU. resistance is useless assimilation will be painless.
here's an idea try persuading the inhabitants of kosovo that they have something to gain from being part of serbia?

Even the Serbian PM gets in Cash from the EU peace and security or war for a bit of land where everybody hates you.
We might not be prepared to shed our blood for kosovo but theres the next generation of cruise missile's eurofighters f22s etc that could do with a workout;(

[oldsoak]

I still reckon we should never have got involved. The Balkans has been bad juju for outsiders since day one. If it comes to a shooting match - how many fronts can we in NATO afford ? Bet you a dollar that the usual suspects will end up having to sort it out while the known names cheer from the sidelines. Leave 'em be I say and shut the doors to the influx of refugees with totally different cultural norms and values.

[SrB-23Q]

well you can whine all you like any sort of democratic vote by the people who live in kosovo will be for independence.
you tried to force the Albanian population to flee that didn't work and Nato rolled in .
Kosovo won't be Serbian ever again. regional power don't make me laugh the west isn't going to allow any more ethnic cleansing or greater Serbia/Albania etc rubbish. 20 years from now your all be part of the EU. resistance is useless assimilation will be painless.
here's an idea try persuading the inhabitants of kosovo that they have something to gain from being part of serbia?

Even the Serbian PM gets in Cash from the EU peace and security or war for a bit of land where everybody hates you.
We might not be prepared to shed our blood for kosovo but theres the next generation of cruise missile's eurofighters f22s etc that could do with a workout;(

so giving Kosovo to the Albanians isnt creating a greater Albania but keeping it with in Serb borders where it has been since Serbs first came to that land is creating a greater Serbia? interesting:roll:

[martinexsquaddie]

Serb borders where it has been since Serbs first came to that land is creating a greater Serbia? interesting

not really true is it wikpedia
The province was first formed in 1945 as the Autonomous Kosovo-Metohian Area to protect its regional Albanian majority within the People's Republic of Serbia as a member of the Federal People's Republic of Yugoslavia under the leadership of the former Partisan leader, Josip Broz Tito, but with no factual autonomy. After Yugoslavia's name change to the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia and Serbia's to the Socialist Republic of Serbia in 1953, Kosovo gained inner autonomy in the 1960s. In the 1974 constitution, the Socialist Autonomous Province of Kosovo's government received higher powers, including the highest governmental titles — President and Prime Minister and a seat in the Federal Presidency which made it a de facto Socialist Republic within the Federation, but remaining as a Socialist Autonomous Province within the Socialist Republic of Serbia. Tito had pursued a policy of weakening Serbia, as he believed that a "Weak Serbia equals a strong Yugoslavia". To this end Vojvodina and Kosovo became autonomous regions and were given the above entitled privileges as de facto republics. Serbo-Croatian, Albanian and Turkish were defined as official languages on the provincial level marking the two largest linguistic Kosovan groups: Albanians and Serbs. In the 1970s, an Albanian nationalist movement pursued full recognition of the Province of Kosovo as another Republic within the Federation, while the most extreme elements aimed for full-scale independence. Tito's arbitrary regime dealt with the situation swiftly, but only giving it a temporary solution. The ethnic balance of Kosovo witnessed disproportional increase as the number of Albanians tripled gradually rising from almost 75% to over 90%, but the number of Serbs barely increased and dropped in the full share of the total population from some 15% down to 8%
so given a lot of autonomy that was then taken away and 90% not serbian but you should rule them even though they don't want you because?

[Lokos]

They were given autonomy as a measure to shatter the centralization of the previous Yugoslav system. The Federal government believed too much power was vested in the Serbian Republic, so it established 'autonomous provinces' in Kosovo and Vojvodina. We, truly, are a foolish people. Yugoslavia did more damage to Serbian statehood than anything since the Ottoman occupation of 1452. As a natural nexus of power in the region, Belgrade's influence and strength had to be 'managed' in the Yugoslav system. And that's what 1974 was all about. 'Flattening' of power structures.

And, like sheep, we accepted it. We also accepted a rising tide of illegal Albanian immigration into Kosovo. Truly, hindsight is 20/20. Only foresight is truly rare, though. We needed it a century ago. Instead, the idiot monarchs of Serbia bit off more than they could chew, and indirectly gave rise to the Federal Republic of the post-WW2 era. A Republic that, truly, put Serbia's best interests far behind that of Yugoslavia's.

Well, we've made our bed. Now we can sleep for a while. But who knows; the world turns, and there is a season for all things. Kosovo was retaken in 1912 amidst much bloodshed. Perhaps, one day, we will see something similar.


don't want you because?

Ideally because it's legally our land. Not theirs. They have won it though a guerrilla campaign waged against Serbian infrastructure and state instruments from 1996-1999. Our crackdown was not gentle, but to this day I still cannot laugh about Clinton's laughable claims of mass genocide ("... we cannot account for over one hundred thousand Albanian men and boys..."). We were punished because the world chose what it wanted to see. Hey! Suddenly NATO was relevant again. Hooray! Plus, the poor, oppressed freedom fighters in Kosovo can finally experience the liberty from tyranny they so earnestly yearn for. So what if, once again, Serbian atrocities (mass expulsions and executions) were countered by more of the same (the flight of hundreds of thousands of Serbs from the province because they felt their lives would be endangered had they stayed is not a voluntary action). It's not wrong if CNN has you pinned as the good guys, yes? I mean, the good guys could never do such things.

But idealism is misplaced here. The rule of law applies only insofar as the powers that be allow it to. In this case, only insofar as it is convenient. Which, at the moment, it's not. So the Kosovars will be encouraged to unilaterally declare independence - against all principles of international law - and the 'free world' will applaud. Well, hooray for another fine victory for freedom and all things good.

Lokos

[martinexsquaddie]

you took it back in 1912 only to lose it after losing it in the 1400s:(
not exactly rational :(

[Lokos]

you took it back in 1912 only to lose it after losing it in the 1400s
not exactly rational

What's not rational? The loss of the province? That part is rational. It's rational and it's a symptom of our shortsightedness and stupidity. If by the above you mean we shouldn't have it because it's been gone for so long and we've only held it for a century in between, then we'll agree to disagree. It's the cultural and historical birthplace of Serbian nationhood. No one will give up on it simply because, at the moment, holding on to it seems impossible. Both times, now, it has been wrested away by force.

We will see how this all plays out in the fullness of time.

Lokos

[oldsoak]

@ martinexsqauddie Mebbe not to your or I, but to these guys its something they feel very strongly about. We shouldnt be in the job of deciding who is right or wrong in circumstances like this - its too damn intricate, too passionate and really not something we understand enough about. We dont have collective memories of historical battles like Agincourt, Flodden etc that these chaps have for their bit of turf. Yet again we'll end up fighting to resolve a situation we created when we should have watched it unfold on telly :-(

[martinexsquaddie]

lost a good friend in saravojo on grapple.
theres one thing you lot sort it out amongst yourselves.
but its the 21st century I don't think anybody wants to see rape camps and seberenica again on the TV news.
I know its the backward bit of europe but its not Africa ffs

[Lt. James Anderson]

20 years from now your all be part of the EU. resistance is useless assimilation will be painless.

Don't worry, 20 years from now you all will be part of big Islamic caliphat of the EU.;)
Not only that the EU countries are working on their own self-destruction but they are forcing others to follow the same path.

[martinexsquaddie]

there are more born again jedi in the uk than muslims

[Lt. James Anderson]

there are more born again jedi in the uk than muslims

Their populations are young (not just in the UK, because when it starts it will be all over the place), and in 20-30 years ... who knows ;) Also I can see some in Europe helping the muslim conquest while others are fighting against it ... Just like the good old times?

[V.I.D.]

"I know its the backward bit of europe but its not Africa ffs"
_________________________________________________________________

I wonder if you would say the same thing in the late 80's when "this backward bit" should have been in the EU and had it all it ever needed. Ignorance really is a bliss. Also, there are no mythical creatures called "Kosovans" (what does that mean, anyway?), but Serbs and Albanians living in the province of Kosovo ("Field of Blackbirds" in Serbian). What is Jerusalem to Jews, that is Kosovo to Serbs, just so we are clear it is not all about territory or resources. But, as Lokos said, let's see what the time will bring.

[martinexsquaddie]

as a friend of mine said
bosnia looked to have been a proper country once before the inhabitants ****** it up.
if its such a spiritual home for Serbs how come Serbs left in droves in the 1970s and 1980s ?

[Lt. James Anderson]

as a friend of mine said
bosnia looked to have been a proper country once before the inhabitants ****** it up.

If the Britanistan was raped by the Turks for 5 centuries, I'm sure it would've been just as fcuked up. ;) Remember that the Turks left that region less than a century ago which historically is a very short time ...


if its such a spiritual home for Serbs how come Serbs left in droves in the 1970s and 1980s ?

Because the Albanians were darlings of the communist government at the time just like they are now darling of the EU (a weird similarity ... or maybe not?). ;)

I remember reading somewhere that there were the same problems with the Albanians in the Kingdom of Yugoslavia in 1920s and 30s ...

[Lokos]

if its such a spiritual home for Serbs how come Serbs left in droves in the 1970s and 1980s ?

Because the majority didn't like having so many Serbs amongst them. There was a lot of harassment during that time period of Serbian populations in Kosovo. This is why Milosevic caused such popular uproar with his speech in 1989 - 'None should dare lay a hand on you' etc. etc. That speech was attended by hundreds of thousands of Serbs. And the Albanian birthrate was so much higher that, even with numbers that were not decreasing dramatically in Serbian populations, every generation saw the ratio more highly skewed in favour of the Albanians.

Your question is, otherwise, idiotic. Why did so many Jews leave Palestine? Shouldn't it have stayed Palestinian? After all, in the 19th century, they (the Jews) were less than 10% of the population. None would suggest, however, that it isn't the spiritual homeland of the Jewish people. And I would certainly not say that they have no right to it, because they were a minority before the return.

Lokos