Would Russia have won the first Chechnyan war if they had waited

[pacifist]

First chechnyan war (1994 - 1996) ended in August 1996 when chechens defeated the Russian army.

Would russian have won if they had waited for few years?


This thread was inspired by Rockthekazbah12.

[Switek]

I voted yes but IMHO If Russia cuould wited and won this whole crapy situation using only political and economic pressure.

[Mr.K]

Waited for what exactly? The 2nd campaign went better because of the painfully experience that was acquired during the 1st.

[Vympel]

with Yelcin , Russia had no chance.

[GodlessAmerica!]

First chechnyan war (1994 - 1996) ended in August 1996 when chechens defeated the Russian army.

The Russian Army was not defeated. Russians were not forced to leave. It was political decision. Why it had been made? Personally I think that general Lebed because of his increasing political ambitions was trying to gain more popularity among Russian people.



Would russian have won if they had waited for few years?


I think it would have been much better if Russians had carried that war to the end.

[Rockthekazbah12]

i guess im not the tool everyone tried to make me sound like

[[WDW]Megaraptor]

From what I've read the Russian Army was at a low point in 1994, that was the worst time to launch a campaign.

[Digimon]

It is questionable to say that they have lost the war, at least insofar as the military campaign is concerned. The relevant testimonials are that the war was stopped for political reasons, in view of the looming 1996 elections and the huge unpopularity of the war.

One insightful account is the book "My War: The Notes of the Field General" the personal account of the war and the politics at the time, by the general Genadiy Troshev. While his view is that the war was badly thought out, nevertheless, in its final stages, the Russian forces developed successful tactics of using airborne troops for fighting in the mountains (leapfrogging and taking commanding heights with subsequent encirclement of the enemy). In his opinion, the war was all but won, when the ceasefire came; view arguably shared by most military commanders.

Of course, if they had waited until after the election to start the war, perhaps they would not have failed in bringing it to conclusion. On the other hand, if Chechnya did not expereince the realities of the Sharia law in the wahhabi interpretation, kiddnaping and the sale on the market as slaves of their own nationals, and if the attack on Dagestan did not give some additional legitimacy for the response of the Russian troops in 1999, it would have been much harder to win the hearts and minds, putting the political sucess of the first compaign in doubt.


Source: http://www.lib.ru/MEMUARY/CHECHNYA/troshew.txt (in Russian)

[pacifist]

It is questionable to say that they have lost the war, at least insofar as the military campaign is concerned. The relevant testimonials are that the war was stopped for political reasons, in view of the looming 1996 elections and the huge unpopularity of the war.

One insightful account is the book "My War: The Notes of the Field General" the personal account of the war and the politics at the time, by the general Genadiy Troshev. While his view is that the war was badly thought out, nevertheless, in its final stages, the Russian forces developed successful tactics of using airborne troops for fighting in the mountains (leapfrogging and taking commanding heights with subsequent encirclement of the enemy). In his opinion, the war was all but won, when the ceasefire came; view arguably shared by most military commanders.

Of course, if they had waited until after the election to start the war, perhaps they would not have failed in bringing it to conclusion. On the other hand, if Chechnya did not expereince the realities of the Sharia law in the wahhabi interpretation, kiddnaping and the sale on the market as slaves of their own nationals, and if the attack on Dagestan did not give some additional legitimacy for the response of the Russian troops in 1999, it would have been much harder to win the hearts and minds, putting the political sucess of the first compaign in doubt.


Source: http://www.lib.ru/MEMUARY/CHECHNYA/troshew.txt (in Russian)

That's interesting. Thanks.

[pacifist]

The Russian Army was not defeated. Russians were not forced to leave. It was political decision. Why it had been made? Personally I think that general Lebed because of his increasing political ambitions was trying to gain more popularity among Russian people.


Ok, i made that sound worse than it is.

Of course not the whole russian army, just the troops in Grozny.

[VPR]

the tactics were completely flawed, due to ignorance at the top, they didnt care about the soldiers, "doesnt work like this, a thousand dead, will send another thousand, try it this way"

the second campaign had better tactics, and better result

[deagle]

waited for what ? a peace brokering ? or complete chechen breakaway ? long answer maybe, short answer also maybe.

[Eratosthenes]

What exactly would 'winning' have meant?

[DRA]

Won what? What would be considered a win provided the circumstances?

Would Russian Armed Forces suffer less casualties if given more time to prepare and plan - yes, would the result be different - no.

The first Chechen war was the war of 2 mafias (Kremlin's and Chechen's) where the military was used as a muscle.
The military had no clear goals set and no training to operate on its own territory against its own citizens.

It really is very complicated and still very dirty and murky issue/time that anyone should be carefull to comment on without extensive research on situation and political forces in Russia in the 90s.

Politicians, media, and significant part of Russian citizens wanted its military to be humiliated, they have done everything for it and succeeded. Military that was fighting there was either:
- avenging fallen comrades
- fighting to prevent the filth spreading further into Russia
- building fortunes and careers... (sad but true in more than few instances)

The first "war" was purposeful sacrifice and humuliation of the military in the country where people were starting to loose faith in politicians.

The second war was a comletely different scenario with clearly outlined goals and proper political support - hence very different result.

[Afro-European]

The Russian army was ill-equiped,underpaid(if they were paid at all), demoralized,the war plan ill-conceived,the corruption at the top of the army was rampant(general Pavel Grachev was the most corrupt officer of the army),lack of a solid leadership(Yeltsin too ill),etc.So given all those cases,in no was the Russian army could have won that war.
They had to wait until the youthful,energetic V.V.Putin came along.


The

[DRA]

The Russian army was ill-equiped,underpaid(if they were paid at all), demoralized,the war plan ill-conceived,the corruption at the top of the army was rampant(general Pavel Grachev was the most corrupt officer of the army),lack of a solid leadership(Yeltsin too ill),etc.So given all those cases,in no was the Russian army could have won that war.
They had to wait until the youthful,energetic V.V.Putin came around.



Ill equiped with what? USSR made sure that it had enough equipment and supplies to fight and win against entire world and 5 years later Russian military couldn't properly equip few divisions? Absurd.
Equipment was there and still is there, what wasn't there were the desire will and time to get it in place.
US had planned and rehersed invasion of Grenada for a year, Russia "planned and rehersed" "restoring constitutional order in the Republic of Chechnya" for 2 weeks....

[Vympel]

Equipment was there and still is there
Dear, DRA, what do you call equipment for?!

Ill equiped with what? USSR made sure that it had enough equipment and supplies to fight and win against entire world and 5 years later Russian military couldn't properly equip few divisions? Absurd.

look at photos or read russian soldier memories. All best troops were stationed towards west.

Russian military couldn't properly equip few divisions? Absurd
In those dark ages, Russias military spending was allmost zero. Yes, absurd. Like first chechen war.

[DRA]

Dear, DRA, what do you call equipment for?!


look at photos or read russian soldier memories. All best troops were stationed towards west.

In those dark ages, Russias military spending was allmost zero. Yes, absurd. Like first chechen war.

Russian military didn't have to buy new equipment, it had and still has tonns of it stockpiled at its warehouses.
I mean everything: from underwear and boots to radios and tanks.
I have actually been to one of such storages.
They didn't need money, they just needed rear generals to open up their storages but it never happened because entire country was a cluster**** at the moment

[Guerrier_Franc]

The Russian Army was not defeated. Russians were not forced to leave. It was political decision.

What about the battle of Grozny ?

[GodlessAmerica!]

What about the battle of Grozny ?

which one?

[Guerrier_Franc]

the last one

[GodlessAmerica!]

the last one

What the last battle for Grozny has to do with First Chechen Compaign?

[pacifist]

What the last battle for Grozny has to do with First Chechen Compaign?

He propably meant the last one in the first war.

[GodlessAmerica!]

He propably meant the last one in the first war.

But whats about it? In august 1996 groups of Chechen militants had infiltrated the city of Grozny and engage Federal troops. Shortly after Grozny was encircled by Russian Army. The preparations for the assault had begun. I dont remember whether or not Russians launched assault at time when peace negotiations begun. Anyway many Russian soldiers to this day think this victory was stolen from them.

[Vympel]

Russian military didn't have to buy new equipment, it had and still has tonns of it stockpiled at its warehouses.
I mean everything: from underwear and boots to radios and tanks.
I have actually been to one of such storages.
They didn't need money, they just needed rear generals to open up their storages but it never happened because entire country was a cluster**** at the moment

DRA, can you lighten me? Today those storages are open or not?

[Vympel]

What about the battle of Grozny ?

if you read kakvaz center you got to know that 500000 kafirs were shot to death. No freedom fighters were killed. EVER!

[pacifist]

if you read kakvaz center you got to know that 500000 kafirs were shot to death. No freedom fighters were killed. EVER!

I think few freedom fighters got minor flesh wounds. :)

[Sergei]

What about the battle of Grozny ?

By the time the peace was signed the Russian federal troops pretty much controlled the situation in Grozny and whole Chechnya.
The military still thinks that "peace signing" was a betrayal of their efforts, Russia should have never left that drug and slaves selling heaven alone.
They returned in three years with much more experience and resolve.

[AKS]

I strongly believe that Russians waited way too long. Dudayev did not keep his ambitions a secret, Russian intelligence knew where the guy is 24/7. A small special forces unit (GRU or Alfa would have done a marvelous job) could have kidnapped him and his top brass and ended the rebellion than and there.
Dudayev and his top boys, from what I remember, were in the same building the day before the "declaration of independence" was announced.

No this is not a action movie scenario, might sound like one, but the operational success of such an operation was very high and it would have prevented the many lives lost in that horrible conflict.

But as said earlier, under Yeltsin this would have hardly taken place, because making money was more important than saving lives or stability. And evrybody already knew how much of a money maker that conflict will be.

[RomanS]

Ummmm the first war was sold out, the soldiers were sold, the army was sold, the hands were tied.

There was an incident in Grozny, where a plane flew by and droped crates on to a stadium where Russian forces were stationed.

The confused Russian forces opened the packages thinking its more supplies, and found anti tank mines, and anti tank weapons. Now why would the Russian forces need that, when the Chechen tanks were taken out within first 2 days of the war.

[RomanS]

The Russian army was ill-equiped,underpaid(if they were paid at all), demoralized,the war plan ill-conceived,the corruption at the top of the army was rampant(general Pavel Grachev was the most corrupt officer of the army),lack of a solid leadership(Yeltsin too ill),etc.So given all those cases,in no was the Russian army could have won that war.
They had to wait until the youthful,energetic V.V.Putin came along.


The

Stop your blabering now !!!!!!

[Hilbert]

My limited understanding of the affair is that while in bad condition (compared to Soviet Times) and off to a incredibly poor start, the Russian Forces were well on the way to victory when Yeltsin pulled the plug on the whole thing.

[Lienad]

it was hard to decipher that paragraph.

[RomanS]

My limited understanding of the affair is that while in bad condition (compared to Soviet Times) and off to a incredibly poor start, the Russian Forces were well on the way to victory when Yeltsin pulled the plug on the whole thing.

Thats correct young N.

Federal troops were pissed when they took Grozny, and had it up untill 1996 when the radio call came in saying -"You need to leave, order from upstairs. Give the city back"

[tomahawk6]

The Chechen operations were extremely brutal on both sides. To surrender to the Chechen's was a death sentence. I read the account of the first battle of Grozny and from a tactical standpoint was a real fiasco the attack wasnt coordinated and to me didnt seem to have been properly reconnoitered. Casualties were very high as a result.