Iran: Military Action?

[FOITim]

Does anyone else think that military action against Iran is necassary? It is estimated that in 3 years Iran will have nuclear capability. Iran is know for its' bad reputation among westerners and it wants to destroy countries like Israel. Recently one of the commanders of the Gaza-based terrorist group, Hamas admitted Iran's Revolutionary Guards Corps is currently training some 150 Hamas members inside Iran, I say this threat must be taken care of.
:bash:

[orionhawk]

not yet, but it's getting there.

[9mmRifle]

see this thread



Bluffer’s Guide: Fortress Iran
Planeman 02/2008
http://img135.imageshack.us/img135/7044/fortressiranyp7.jpg
+ Pls note that this is amateur research and illustrations. Corrections and constructive feedback welcome.




http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/showthread.php?t=129494

[Comrade Kane]

it'll happen, but we need to finish up iraq first

[Freedom-Fries]

it'll happen, but we need to finish up iraq first

Why do people keep talking like war is unavoidable?

[Ariha]

Why do people keep talking like war is unavoidable?

Yep; Dar El Harb always has the alternative of surrender.

[Lau]

it'll happen, but we need to finish up iraq first

Let's all hope and pray it does not happend.

[Freedom-Fries]

You don't think Iran will comply or back down ?

For so long people were saying war with North Korea was unavoidable, then he allowed inspectors in and started to dismantle his nuke program.

[FOITim]

Why do people keep talking like war is unavoidable?

How do you suppose we avoid this war? Iran openly supports terorist groups, they have made serious threats to more than one country, as far as I'm concerned Iran is a terrorist counry and should be invade ASAP

[Telmar]

... I say this threat must be taken care of.
:bash:

The question is how to do so.

[Vassago]

So did we forget who did support radical islam in Afghanistan against communism? Also as far as i know US was the supporting force behind the Iran's Islamic revolution.

[WoW]

well iran would be very hard to invade (they have 12 million basij reserves) but a air strike can be done but a retaliation could be waited (shahabs)
well in a iranian forum they say they would defeat the US (lol) what do you guys think would it be quick and easy?

[Ordie]

Question:
Are we in danger?

If we are not in danger, then we should not fight.

[Hilbert]

Only time will tell, I think that's pretty much the most accurate answer anyone can give.

[Pars]

Tehran should definately be nuked. (sarcasm)



it'll happen, but we need to finish up iraq first


I presume you'll do your part to finish the job? And of course you'll be first in line to cross the Zagros mountains?

[E-2]

I say this threat must be taken care of.
:bash:

We'll send you on a super secret mission to snipe them all.

[Protected]

Iran has every right to have nuclear power and nuclear weapons. They need to defend themselves against aggressive nations that lie to the world and have invaded third world and tiny countries like Iraq and Lebanon. Maybe certain countries will think twice before starting needless and costly wars that are causing their economy to tank.

[Ariha]

Iran has every right to have nuclear power and nuclear weapons. They need to defend themselves against aggressive nations that lie to the world and have invaded third world and tiny countries like Iraq and Lebanon. Maybe certain countries will think twice before starting needless and costly wars that are causing their economy to tank.

Then, your words should the official position of the Iranian regime, instead signing the NPT...

[FOITim]

This is all I have to say .............

[Pars]

You don't think that if Iran really wanted to nuke Israel or any other country for that matter they'd get one of the black market and just do it? It's not like if Iran aquires Nuclear weapons they automatically become immune against any retaliation.

If you try to think (now, really try it) you'd understand that the regime is scared against any form of attack and are trying to make themselves harder to attack.

But will you be first in line to invade Iran?

[timetraveller]

Don Vito Corleone says

keep your friends close and your Enimies Closer ..

and never tell anybody outside the family what you are thinking ..

[deagle]

the only started is flame.

yes, we should fight on principe, but no we won't (or can't) due to other constriaints ? thats the best i could come up with.

[Erik Sleivöks]

Does anyone else think that military action against Iran is necassary? It is estimated that in 3 years Iran will have nuclear capability. Iran is know for its' bad reputation among westerners and it wants to destroy countries like Israel. Recently one of the commanders of the Gaza-based terrorist group, Hamas admitted Iran's Revolutionary Guards Corps is currently training some 150 Hamas members inside Iran, I say this threat must be taken care of.
:bash:


For the moment military actions against Iran is not at all necessary and would be a serious mistake (another one) from the western world.

First of all it is obvious that Iran is desperately seeking an atomic weapons solution simply because the regime needs it desperately in order to stay in power for the foreseeable future.
The current leadership in Iran is (probably for good reasons) feeling extremely threatened by surrounding powers and considers that it is only a matter of time before they will be attacked. Since the current Iranian military situation is to say it mildly deplorable, the only realistic way of avoiding an invasion is to obtain nuclear weapons.
In Iran there are no whatsoever political opposition (all opponents have been exiled or exterminated) and in reality there is at this stage no way the regime can be overturned from the inside.
Therefore the regimes main preoccupation is to insure that Iran will not be attacked from the outside, and hence be able to stay in power.

On the other hand; the current political and economical situation inside Iran is not as simple as it might look like from the outside.
Economical sanctions are working very well, and this accompanied by a notorious economical mismanagement by the current regime puts Iran in a catastrophic economic situation. Inflation is “exploding”, petrol is rationed (strange in a country that have among the worlds largest oil reserves), Costs of real estate is rocketing, and many other social issues are outstanding. This together with the simple demographic fact that puts more than 50% of the population under 25 years (I am not sure about the exact figures), makes the current situation in Iran very difficult to explain for the regime and they need an excuse… and the excuse is.?.?.?.? The great Satan of America…. Obviously!!!

The regime desperately needs an evil enemy in order to explain the horrible mess they have put the country in. Also; even if Iran statistically is fairly well educated (high ratio of university educated people) the simple fact leaves the masses of the population in close to total ignorance. They have mainly received an Islamic orientated and highly politicized education (in other words brainwashed) and information from other sources than the official sources is illegal. Therefore the Iranian population is still (it is slowly changing) highly sensitive to the official propaganda and have a very strong nationalistic feeling.
The regime is putting a maximum of effort in to galvanizing its population, and an armed conflict at this stage would only serve the regime that would be able to unite the population under the nationalistic banner against the invader.

On the other hand; the nuclear weapons program is not at all advancing as they expected it to do (it is not so easy as they believed it to be), and they are still years away from achieving a nuclear capability. This together with the difficult economical situation is slowly eroding the political power of the regime that is being more and more marginalized from its population and generally weakened.

Therefore a military action before the nuclear issue really becomes worrying, would be a serious and costly mistake. Iran is not Iraq or Afghanistan, and should not be underestimated.
The Iranian regime is not about to fall (far from that), but their mismanagement will force them in to concessions and over time (several years) a more democratic and less hostile Iran will emerge.

Finally it is obvious that even a nuclear Iran will not attack anybody (it will be their self destruction) and all the propaganda nonsense about Israel is just BS aimed at galvanizing its population (that by the way is starting to questioning the forever ongoing troubles with Israel). Let’s not forget that Iran and Israel are traditionally good allies and it is only the Islamic propaganda (since the revolution) that is boosting about this matter. Iranians in general have little feelings for Arabs and especially “Palestinians” (Palestinians actually doesn’t exist and is a propaganda invention since the sixties) that they consider as the lowest of the Arabs.
On the other hand; the Jewish community in Iran is well considered and even the regime is obliged that it is not the Jews that they are against, but the “Zionist regime” as they love to call Israel.

Therefore an attack on Iran today is far to early and will only serve the Iranian regime.
Rather keep up the sanctions, calm the whole region down (get the oil price down) and by this strangle the regime slowly.
But if a nuclear weapon where to be at their reach, a swift military action must unfortunately be taken (Israel is very good at such matters) but before such a situation occurs… Relax…

[Nano]

For the moment military actions against Iran is not at all necessary and would be a serious mistake (another one) from the western world.

First of all it is obvious that Iran is desperately seeking an atomic weapons solution simply because the regime needs it desperately in order to stay in power for the foreseeable future.
The current leadership in Iran is (probably for good reasons) feeling extremely threatened by surrounding powers and considers that it is only a matter of time before they will be attacked. Since the current Iranian military situation is to say it mildly deplorable, the only realistic way of avoiding an invasion is to obtain nuclear weapons.
In Iran there are no whatsoever political opposition (all opponents have been exiled or exterminated) and in reality there is at this stage no way the regime can be overturned from the inside.
Therefore the regimes main preoccupation is to insure that Iran will not be attacked from the outside, and hence be able to stay in power.

On the other hand; the current political and economical situation inside Iran is not as simple as it might look like from the outside.
Economical sanctions are working very well, and this accompanied by a notorious economical mismanagement by the current regime puts Iran in a catastrophic economic situation. Inflation is “exploding”, petrol is rationed (strange in a country that have among the worlds largest oil reserves), Costs of real estate is rocketing, and many other social issues are outstanding. This together with the simple demographic fact that puts more than 50% of the population under 25 years (I am not sure about the exact figures), makes the current situation in Iran very difficult to explain for the regime and they need an excuse… and the excuse is.?.?.?.? The great Satan of America…. Obviously!!!

The regime desperately needs an evil enemy in order to explain the horrible mess they have put the country in. Also; even if Iran statistically is fairly well educated (high ratio of university educated people) the simple fact leaves the masses of the population in close to total ignorance. They have mainly received an Islamic orientated and highly politicized education (in other words brainwashed) and information from other sources than the official sources is illegal. Therefore the Iranian population is still (it is slowly changing) highly sensitive to the official propaganda and have a very strong nationalistic feeling.
The regime is putting a maximum of effort in to galvanizing its population, and an armed conflict at this stage would only serve the regime that would be able to unite the population under the nationalistic banner against the invader.

On the other hand; the nuclear weapons program is not at all advancing as they expected it to do (it is not so easy as they believed it to be), and they are still years away from achieving a nuclear capability. This together with the difficult economical situation is slowly eroding the political power of the regime that is being more and more marginalized from its population and generally weakened.

Therefore a military action before the nuclear issue really becomes worrying, would be a serious and costly mistake. Iran is not Iraq or Afghanistan, and should not be underestimated.
The Iranian regime is not about to fall (far from that), but their mismanagement will force them in to concessions and over time (several years) a more democratic and less hostile Iran will emerge.

Finally it is obvious that even a nuclear Iran will not attack anybody (it will be their self destruction) and all the propaganda nonsense about Israel is just BS aimed at galvanizing its population (that by the way is starting to questioning the forever ongoing troubles with Israel). Let’s not forget that Iran and Israel are traditionally good allies and it is only the Islamic propaganda (since the revolution) that is boosting about this matter. Iranians in general have little feelings for Arabs and especially “Palestinians” (Palestinians actually doesn’t exist and is a propaganda invention since the sixties) that they consider as the lowest of the Arabs.
On the other hand; the Jewish community in Iran is well considered and even the regime is obliged that it is not the Jews that they are against, but the “Zionist regime” as they love to call Israel.

Therefore an attack on Iran today is far to early and will only serve the Iranian regime.
Rather keep up the sanctions, calm the whole region down (get the oil price down) and by this strangle the regime slowly.
But if a nuclear weapon where to be at their reach, a swift military action must unfortunately be taken (Israel is very good at such matters) but before such a situation occurs… Relax…

X 1 I agree and share your view on this situation. I don't think the U.S. should be the one to attack Iran when and if the time comes for it. It is Isreal that is in danger not the U.S. Like you noted Israel can take care of it before it becomes a critical life or death issue. Israel is probably working in attaining the weapons for such a scenario as we speak. Relaxing and making sure one does not make rash decisions is a good idea. Iran's regime is really its own worse enemy in this scenario. Patience is key in attaining anything and they simply don't have it, but hope we do.

[Snoshi]

I agree. Attacking Iran too "early" is not a good option.

[LRPV]

What's good enough for the goose, is good enough for the gander.

Old saying.

Therefore rather than an overt attack on the Iranian regime, a subversive organ should be born and nurtured within Iran. Nothing like paranoia to divert attention.

[ak0623]

Iran is a piece of ice.It will resolve it if you warm it.

[Clayton Gold]

For the moment military actions against Iran is not at all necessary and would be a serious mistake (another one) from the western world.

First of all it is obvious that Iran is desperately seeking an atomic weapons solution simply because the regime needs it desperately in order to stay in power for the foreseeable future.
The current leadership in Iran is (probably for good reasons) feeling extremely threatened by surrounding powers and considers that it is only a matter of time before they will be attacked. Since the current Iranian military situation is to say it mildly deplorable, the only realistic way of avoiding an invasion is to obtain nuclear weapons.
In Iran there are no whatsoever political opposition (all opponents have been exiled or exterminated) and in reality there is at this stage no way the regime can be overturned from the inside.
Therefore the regimes main preoccupation is to insure that Iran will not be attacked from the outside, and hence be able to stay in power.

On the other hand; the current political and economical situation inside Iran is not as simple as it might look like from the outside.
Economical sanctions are working very well, and this accompanied by a notorious economical mismanagement by the current regime puts Iran in a catastrophic economic situation. Inflation is “exploding”, petrol is rationed (strange in a country that have among the worlds largest oil reserves), Costs of real estate is rocketing, and many other social issues are outstanding. This together with the simple demographic fact that puts more than 50% of the population under 25 years (I am not sure about the exact figures), makes the current situation in Iran very difficult to explain for the regime and they need an excuse… and the excuse is.?.?.?.? The great Satan of America…. Obviously!!!

The regime desperately needs an evil enemy in order to explain the horrible mess they have put the country in. Also; even if Iran statistically is fairly well educated (high ratio of university educated people) the simple fact leaves the masses of the population in close to total ignorance. They have mainly received an Islamic orientated and highly politicized education (in other words brainwashed) and information from other sources than the official sources is illegal. Therefore the Iranian population is still (it is slowly changing) highly sensitive to the official propaganda and have a very strong nationalistic feeling.
The regime is putting a maximum of effort in to galvanizing its population, and an armed conflict at this stage would only serve the regime that would be able to unite the population under the nationalistic banner against the invader.

On the other hand; the nuclear weapons program is not at all advancing as they expected it to do (it is not so easy as they believed it to be), and they are still years away from achieving a nuclear capability. This together with the difficult economical situation is slowly eroding the political power of the regime that is being more and more marginalized from its population and generally weakened.

Therefore a military action before the nuclear issue really becomes worrying, would be a serious and costly mistake. Iran is not Iraq or Afghanistan, and should not be underestimated.
The Iranian regime is not about to fall (far from that), but their mismanagement will force them in to concessions and over time (several years) a more democratic and less hostile Iran will emerge.

Finally it is obvious that even a nuclear Iran will not attack anybody (it will be their self destruction) and all the propaganda nonsense about Israel is just BS aimed at galvanizing its population (that by the way is starting to questioning the forever ongoing troubles with Israel). Let’s not forget that Iran and Israel are traditionally good allies and it is only the Islamic propaganda (since the revolution) that is boosting about this matter. Iranians in general have little feelings for Arabs and especially “Palestinians” (Palestinians actually doesn’t exist and is a propaganda invention since the sixties) that they consider as the lowest of the Arabs.
On the other hand; the Jewish community in Iran is well considered and even the regime is obliged that it is not the Jews that they are against, but the “Zionist regime” as they love to call Israel.

Therefore an attack on Iran today is far to early and will only serve the Iranian regime.
Rather keep up the sanctions, calm the whole region down (get the oil price down) and by this strangle the regime slowly.
But if a nuclear weapon where to be at their reach, a swift military action must unfortunately be taken (Israel is very good at such matters) but before such a situation occurs… Relax…


This is a great, very balanced post.

+rep (if this site had it) p-)

[Pars]

This is a great, very balanced post.

+rep (if this site had it) p-)

That goes for me as well. One of the better posts I've read.


But Erik jân, I hope your grim predictions on the longevity of the Islamic regime turns out to be wrong. It's very existance fills me with hate.

[Erik Sleivöks]

That goes for me as well. One of the better posts I've read.


But Erik jân, I hope your grim predictions on the longevity of the Islamic regime turns out to be wrong. It's very existance fills me with hate.

Yepp… but there is unfortunately today not such thing as another revolution or a change in regime in sight for the foreseeable future.
The regime is well in place and there is no whatsoever serious opposition. Anyway the smallest opposition attempt is immediately crushed and destroyed almost before it has started.

The rich (educated) and wealthy people are largely benefiting from the widespread corruption. Since they can more or less do as they want, they will not take any risks and be a “motor” for any regime changes. In Tehran it is easy to make money and the wealthy quickly gets wealthier. They don’t necessarily need a good and organized democracy to mess up their business.
There is not a large middle class, and the poorer and less educated population is living on another planet. Having always been subjected to the Islamic educational system (don’t forget that the majority of the population is under 25 years of age), they have no other vision of the world than the “slightly” distorted version given by the regime.
Also the Iranian population is living with an eternal paranoia about the different security services and they firmly believe that the walls have ears and that everything is controlled by the regime. On the other hand it is true that some “opposition” (if we can call it that) leaders simply disappears, something that cools down others that could be tempted.

However things are changing; internet (even if strictly censured) is giving the younger generation a clearer idea about what is happening in the world. However and unfortunately the latest US “adventures” in the Middle East has not been concluding and it is difficult to display the US as the world liberators in the current situation. Opinions are even mixed in the US and Europe, so you can imagine how they are mixed among those that has received an Islamic education during their whole life.
Satellite TV; even if forbidden is widespread, but limited knowledge to English and a complete lack of credibility from the Persian language channels (mainly from the US) is not really helping in the general change of opinions.
Iranians in general would probably gladly see a change in the regime, but being bombed back to the Stone Age by the US is not an option for them. On the other hand there is very little they can do, and if they want to keep their jobs (and bread on the table) it is better to shut up and follow the general trend.
However more and more people know and understand the realities of the regime. The regime has actually already lost, and the revolution is not progressing as expected, and also even if the regime is firmly in place they know that it is going to be difficult to stop the information from the real world to spread itself.
Therefore we are today feeling more than ever a tightening of the media censure, and reinforcement of the respect of the Islamic dress code, together with a very aggressive propaganda around other nations (US, Israel, etc…). Notable increases in death penalties and hence executions are also a reality. The regime is slowly loosing its grip and is therefore tightening it desperately.
Unfortunately it works and the population is kept under pressure, but economical difficulties, the general evolution of the younger generations, and the impossibility of keeping Iran cut of from the world, will eventually impose a more democratic regime that will not be so hostile towards the rest of the world. But it will take years (many years) and will happen thru a “slow” process (the regime cannot admit to loose “terrain”), and anyway time is needed. Iran has never known democracy, and neither its population, its culture nor its institutions are ready for a modern democracy tomorrow morning.

[Sanat-e-naft]

It seems more likely that Iran will become more free in the same way China did (with regard to some aspects), with time not revolution. The mullahs arent going anywhere. We used to joke that you could not get a cent back from the clergy, try taking back a country. As time goes on the Iranian spirit will change this government, the same way it changed every group.

[Berkut]

Iran needs someone to get rid of the mullahs like Putin did with the oligarchs in Russia - using the sneaky way. True, its easier said than done, but still would be great for Iran & World Peace.

[jokuvaan]

Oil prize is not going to drop while consumption grows.

North Korea regime held power even when country was starving disaster area.

Embargo would of course work eventually, together with not so fanatic present youth population. But I fear there is not enough time for that, not even close.

[Doublethinker]

Iran needs someone to get rid of the mullahs like Putin did with the oligarchs in Russia - using the sneaky way. True, its easier said than done, but still would be great for Iran & World Peace.

Putin got rid only of those oligarchs that were in his way or in the way of his business.

The majority, loyal oligarchs, never enjoyed a more prosperous life. Look at United Russia, Putin's pet party, never in Russian history has there been such a party with such a huge amount of oligarchs in it.