US City Preparedness for Oil Crisis

[Ordie]

Major US City Preparedness
For an Oil Crisis


Which Cities and Metro Areas are Best Prepared for $4 a Gallon Gas and Beyond?


By Warren Karlenzig


For the first time in history, the United States faces continued prices of $100+ barrel oil. The price of oil has risen to its highest level ever on an inflation-adjusted basis; crude oil on March 3, 2008, reached $103.95 a barrel (in 1980 oil reached $39.50 a barrel, which translates in inflation-adjusted 2008 dollars to $103.76)

1. Average vehicle miles driven have risen steadily on a national basis since the 1970s (rates rose more than 150% between 1977 and 2001, according to The Wall Street Journal2), thus the effect of these high prices are likely to reverberate throughout the economy, despite greater fuel efficiency.


The growing use of oil in developing nations, particularly in China and India, has put a strain on the ability of global oil suppliers to meet growing demand. A major automotive manufacturer (BMW3) and oil analysts4 are predicting that global oil supplies may be peaking within the next 3 to 20 years. Should this happen, the overall global oil supply will not be able to meet increasing global demand, thus forcing up oil prices to levels
impossible to currently predict. This study was made under the hypothesis that certain U.S. cities and metro areas are currently better prepared for higher oil prices--or potential oil supply disruptions--than are other cities and regions. A further assumption is made. Cities or regions that have
existing significant alternatives to reliance on oil for transportation and alternatives to oil for building heating and electricity generation will fare better economically if oil prices remain above the barrier of $100 a barrel oil.


More: http://www.commoncurrent.com/pubs/OilCrisis3.4.08.final.pdf

[wicked_hind]

I filled up my girfriend's truck last night and almost cried after I got the credit card receipt-nearly 60 bucks to fill up her little Ranger pickup. I take the trolley to work everyday, which is an inconvenience to have to get up early. However, I pay 65 dollars a month for a monthly pass, so I end up saving a lot on gas, insurance, possible car payment. But this is just getting out of hand.

[Ichhabe]

I filled up my girfriend's truck last night and almost cried after I got the credit card receipt-nearly 60 bucks to fill up her little Ranger pickup. I take the trolley to work everyday, which is an inconvenience to have to get up early. However, I pay 65 dollars a month for a monthly pass, so I end up saving a lot on gas, insurance, possible car payment. But this is just getting out of hand.


Cry me a river...

http://militaryphotos.net/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=47142&stc=1&d=1206417961

That is the prices where I live. In the northern part of Norway. And for your information, that is for a liter, not gallon.

[wicked_hind]

Cry me a river...

I will be, come summer time.:-(

[Chimera]

That is the prices where I live. In the northern part of Norway. And for your information, that is for a liter, not gallon.

I thought being a citizen from Norway would allow you to get "discount prices" when filling up your car... I mean, Norway is kinda big oil producer, isn't it?

[Hollis]

small note;

1 Norwegian krone = 0.190132 U.S. dollars

Still that's 2.55 per liter or $9.65 per gallon.......



Egads.............

[ren0312]

Cry me a river...

http://militaryphotos.net/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=47142&stc=1&d=1206417961

That is the prices where I live. In the northern part of Norway. And for your information, that is for a liter, not gallon.

Norway is a democracy right, if Norweigians really wanted to say enough is enough with overtaxed gas they can just go to the ballot box, based on my impression from my time in Europe, Europeans seem to be quite content with the system and have no plans of changing it in the near future.

[vinny_121_ND]

I remember back in 2006, on CNN Presents showed a glimpse of what would happen if somebody hijacked a 747 and crashed it into Saudi main oil terminals. Where would Americans fill up their gas tanks let alone who would fill up the loss of one of the main oil producers?
What would the cost of gas be if that happened? Can Americans afford it? But, this doesn't just affect Americans, it affects everyone.

[Ichhabe]

I thought being a citizen from Norway would allow you to get "discount prices" when filling up your car... I mean, Norway is kinda big oil producer, isn't it?

...that would be a dream. As I've said when talking about the prices (in general) here in Norway. "Thank God that we don't grow coffee here, who could say what crazy prices that product would have had?"
If I'm not wrong we are either 4th or 5th largest oil exporting country in the world. (Could have changed since the last time I heard it) But that does not help the fact that whatever government we have, let it be socialist or conservative; the taxes from oil and petrol are to good money to just say no to. So I guess we just have to live with it.

[Albatross]

buy 4 cylinders.

[Ordie]

I'm seeing more people take the bus and BART. But here's the crummy part, public transit in California is subsidized by sales and property taxes.

Guess what, people are spending less, and are re-appraising thier homes to pay less in taxes.

That means at a time when affordable public transit demand is high, the decline in tax revenues may lead in the reduction of transit service.

Back-assward.

[Andreas]

small note;

1 Norwegian krone = 0.190132 U.S. dollars

Still that's 2.55 per liter or $9.65 per gallon.......



Egads.............

Hence the 4 cyllinder car parked outside the building.

On a sidenote, the gas prices and general high tax-level on cars in Norway makes me want to get rich even more so i can get a rediculous supercharged SUV and just give a flying fvck about the taxes..

Cheers
Andreas

[Albatross]

I'm seeing more people take the bus and BART. But here's the crummy part, public transit in California is subsidized by sales and property taxes.

Guess what, people are spending less, and are re-appraising thier homes to pay less in taxes.

That means at a time when affordable public transit demand is high, the decline in tax revenues may lead in the reduction of transit service.

Back-assward.

Yea, the commute on BART is getting more and more crowded. The Bay Area is so over priced that people are doing anything they can to save a buck now.

[gaijinsamurai]

As much as I hate it, I take the bus to/from work almost every day, despite the fact that I have two cars.
It will only get worse, in my opinion.

[Dragonscript]

I live less than 2 miles away form work so if i need to i can jog to work, but as it stands i spend less than 20$ per week on gas, and that is for 1997 GMC Sonoma. I don't see oil prices going down any time soon so i expect to see bicycles and motorcycles becoming more popular very soon.

[Mastermind]

My company is already talking about home offices...come into work only one day every two weeks for a progress meeting. We all work from computer stations and communicate by server and e-mails...so no difference except the company would not need a big office...the gas savings would be enormous for the employees...and we are looking at it as a kind of salary increase.

I now live 8 miles from where I work...well within bicycle range. Except in summer when it is 115 all day occassionally. I have a small engine for my bike...get's 95 miles per gallon and climbs hills great! But, no air conditioner :-)

I figure we will soon be paying 5 to 6 dollars a gallon. When that happens, we will have a draconian government to keep the riots under control...the super wealthy are already looking forward to the empty freeways....but the "Hong Kong" surface streets are going to be miserable with the pedi cabs, scooters and mopeds. I will probably be participating in the underground fuel rebels...you know slashing tires of the wealthy class still driving ... stealing fuel...punching gas tanks...that kind of radical activism.

[TheSteve]

My company is already talking about home offices...come into work only one day every two weeks for a progress meeting. We all work from computer stations and communicate by server and e-mails...so no difference except the company would not need a big office...the gas savings would be enormous for the employees...and we are looking at it as a kind of salary increase.

I now live 8 miles from where I work...well within bicycle range. Except in summer when it is 115 all day occassionally. I have a small engine for my bike...get's 95 miles per gallon and climbs hills great! But, no air conditioner :-)
Actually going to work 2 or 3 days a week? Thats awesome.

I recently crashed my car, so no more gas buying for me. I use my bike and public transportation, which isn't fun but you save a hell of a lot of money.

[Mastermind]

One day every two weeks!...that's great. But, I know I will have difficulty with this plan. Wife will never understand it. I will probably have to build myself an office out on the patio and lock the door. If I am near her...she will pester me constantly.

[Abolith]

Cry me a river...

http://militaryphotos.net/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=47142&stc=1&d=1206417961

That is the prices where I live. In the northern part of Norway. And for your information, that is for a liter, not gallon.




according to that sign you are paying $9.59 per gallon...


which means that to fill my truck i would have to pay about $172.90....ouch


at that rate I would have to stop working... it would cost to damn much to commute!!

[Ordie]

according to that sign you are paying $9.59 per gallon...


which means that to fill my truck i would have to pay about $172.90....ouch


at that rate I would have to stop working... it would cost to damn much to commute!!

I wonder how much does a forzen burrito cost at the gas station store in Norway?

[Laworkerbee]

Cry me a river...

That is the prices where I live. In the northern part of Norway. And for your information, that is for a liter, not gallon.

Mother Of God!

Drinks are on me Pal.

[Andreas]

My company is already talking about home offices...come into work only one day every two weeks for a progress meeting. We all work from computer stations and communicate by server and e-mails...so no difference except the company would not need a big office...the gas savings would be enormous for the employees...and we are looking at it as a kind of salary increase.

I now live 8 miles from where I work...well within bicycle range. Except in summer when it is 115 all day occassionally. I have a small engine for my bike...get's 95 miles per gallon and climbs hills great! But, no air conditioner :-)

I figure we will soon be paying 5 to 6 dollars a gallon. When that happens, we will have a draconian government to keep the riots under control...the super wealthy are already looking forward to the empty freeways....but the "Hong Kong" surface streets are going to be miserable with the pedi cabs, scooters and mopeds. I will probably be participating in the underground fuel rebels...you know slashing tires of the wealthy class still driving ... stealing fuel...punching gas tanks...that kind of radical activism.

Even though you are right in many thinsk you post, I realy hope you are wrong about that prediction.
But I fear some of the points have a flavour of the road we might be heading down.

Cheers
Andreas

[Ichhabe]

I wonder how much does a forzen burrito cost at the gas station store in Norway?

My calculated guess; around $7, maybe 8. Depends on the size of course.

[Mastermind]

Even though you are right in many thinsk you post, I realy hope you are wrong about that prediction.
But I fear some of the points have a flavour of the road we might be heading down.

Cheers
Andreas
Quite honestly, Andreas, I hope I am wrong, too. Just that I lived through two major fuel crunches here in the U.S....saw the fights in the five block long gas lines...I just have no faith in modern governments to help prevent disasters now.

[Andreas]

Quite honestly, Andreas, I hope I am wrong, too. Just that I lived through two major fuel crunches here in the U.S....saw the fights in the five block long gas lines...I just have no faith in modern governments to help prevent disasters now.

Well as history has a tendency to repeat itself I hope the US government has some tricks up its sleeve. The biggest problem for the US as I see it is that the infrastructure is redicoulusly based on everyone getting around in cars.

I remember my first trip to the US, I was 14. Me and a friend where at a mall, we found out we wanted to go over to the mall on the other side of the three lane road. We could see it just 100 meters away, but we had to risk our lives running accross the road because the damn place dident have a walkway over the road or a tunnel underneath it. I found it redicilous, and I was asking myself, "what the hell is wrong with these people?"

It took me a couple of minutes to figure it out... The damn place wasnt made for Anyone to go from one mall to the other one without a car!!

This was a grim example, I saw better solutions later and on other trips but that episode stuck with me as an example of the US dependency on cars..

But still, I realy hope a gradual shift towards better fuel economy and infrastructure can keep one step ahead of the potential for a lot of **** on the fan to put it that way..

Cheers
Andreas

[Power_serj]

Gas prices $4.00 a gallon isn't really as bad as we (Americans) make it to be. We are already money wasters, and materilistic. When gas goes up a few cents, people in this country become irrational and cut spending way more than necassary.

Right now I get paid $9.00/hour (in high school). Less than 3 hours of work buys me a full gas tank, which I fill up per week. That is NOT THAT MUCH! I work 30 hours a week. I'm not even complaining, it's not that serious. I think the medium income is around $35,000/year, that's a small percentage.

Someone who's good at math, please tell me what percentage of my income gas is. I'm sure it's not a lot.

[Mastermind]

The problem is really self made, indeed. You are right about the whole infrastructure being built around cars and that is not by accident. Here, we have a golden opportunity to reduce fuel use by letting people ride small scooters. I would be glad to use one. We have great weather for 9 months out of the years and I would greatly enjoy the open air ride. But, the government refuses to allow these scooters license...riders must get a full motorcycle license, registration and full insurance. If you don't have money for a regular car...how the hell are you going to go through all that? And a result, if the police find you on a scooter..even the little 49 cc ones, they will confiscate it and ticket you. Also, they are now stopping and harassing people on bicycles...interfering with traffic...must be in proper bike lanes...and guess what...few bike lanes go where business are and where people work...just near parks and such!

It is all about keeping the gasoline purchases up so the transportation tax base does not suffer.

[RSone]

Gas prices are near the 1,50 euro mark per liter at some gas stations in The Netherlands.
My parents have already had a LPG installation installed in their car. I'm a trained speed cyclist and mountainbiker, so fortunately i can ride my bike pretty much everywhere i need to be. But the gasprices work out to approx. 5,68 per gallon. At the current exchange rate that would be 8,95 dollars for a gallon. Yet We/I/my parents don't riot. The American public needs to abandon the notion that cheap fossil fuels are a "birthright".

[Ichhabe]

according to that sign you are paying $9.59 per gallon...


which means that to fill my truck i would have to pay about $172.90....ouch


at that rate I would have to stop working... it would cost to damn much to commute!!

I just talked to a friend of mine who has a Chevrolet Suburban, 1983 model. When he fills it up if it is empty, it will take 167 liter, and he must pay around $ 430 with todays prices.

[Violet Fashion by Mindy]

I paid $1.47 AUD a liter

Which is about 5 bucks a gallon US

[Violet Fashion by Mindy]

I also find it unbelievable that there is no commuter rail between that jumbled mess of cities in Ohio. Cities all within 3 hours of each other all connected by rail but no commuter rail.

The Australia equivalent Sydney, Newcastle, Katoomba and Wollongong (3 hour train trips starting from Sydney have hourly train services in each direction and frequencies of every 15 minutes in the morning peak.

[Albatross]

I come from the midwest where everyone drives everywhere, some of it is geography and some is just out of laziness. I moved to the bay area about 4 years ago, haven't owned a car since. I walk everywhere, and if I can not walk I take public transportation and the occasional taxi. The fuel prices are high out here, as is the cost of living. Since the economy started taking a dive and gas is going up people are using the BART (light rail system) more and more. Its great, why use the gas if not necessary. In less than a week I will go to a place where everything is dirt cheap, but no one walks anywhere. There is no decent public transportation, takes an hour to get from downtown to the airport on a bus, thats a guess because I never took it. We may need to get some federal funding to fund better public transportation in all large cities.

If fuel gets to 5 dollars a gallon, we need to tap our reserves until we can start coming up with alternative fuels for our autos.