can Israel last?

[Lee]

Over the years Ive heard many discussions by jews and non jews about wether or not Israel could survive into the far future because Israel is just a tiny little blob in a sea of hostile arabs that have sworn to wipe her out at the first opportunity. What has kept Israel secure and confident in the past is that Israel's armanents were of better quality than the arabs and Israel's training of their soldiers was of more quality since they were training much less men than the arabs. So Israel had more officers per 100 soldiers than the arabs. Also, Israel always was able to take on one or two arab countries at a time without fighting all at once. That didn't always hold true of course. And Isreal's policy was to set back an enemy 5 or 10 years before they would be able to fight again. But with the war in Lebnanon in 2006 revealed that superiority of Israel's is now put into question and that sends a chill up and down the spine of Israel. If Hezbollah's tactics would work for the Syrians and other enemies of Israel then Israel would be in real trouble. Although i couldn't see Israel getting wiped out its not to imagine that against so many enemies she can last either. I have no answers but sometimes wonder anyway what the future holds. Any ideas on this.

[Britboy]

Israel has the bomb, and a program to arm conventional submarines with it I believe.

Just this fact alone, means she is pretty secure for the foreseeable.

Regards
BB

[little icebear]

Israel can and will last.

[Col.O'neill]

ISRAEL will last forever, israel will always ultimately prevail over its enemies!
ISAIAH 41:12-14
" Though you search for your enemies, you will not find them. Those who wage war against you will be as nothing at all. For i am the lord, your god, who takes hold of your right hand and says to you do not fear i will help you. Do not be afraid oh jacob o little israel, for i myself will help you declares the lord, your redeemer, the holy one of israel.

Now those who doubt the validity of the word of god (bible) just look at the history of israel and its enemies and make a little scorecard and see who always comes out on top :)

[Britboy]

Okay, well apart from religious excerpts and statements without much substantiation, anyone care to elaborate why Israel may/may not last?

Anything to do with her foreign policy, support by other nations, the diaspora, the quality of the Israel Defence Force, their nuclear weapons status?

Regards
BB

[One?]

Check this out: http://www.mapsofwar.com/images/EMPIRE17.swf

History tends to repeat itself, and civilizations tend to come and go.

[FlankerFlyer]

Sure,particularly coming after the Holocaust, the worst calamity in Jewish history. To have survived it is miracle enough. Then to survive the destruction of that which arose to redeem it-the new Jewish state-is to attribute to Jewish nationhood and survival supernatural power.This is a people that miraculously survived two previous destructions and two millennia of persecution in the hope of ultimate return and restoration. Israel is that hope. To see it destroyed, to have Isaiahs and Jeremiahs lamenting the widows of Zion once again amid the ruins of Jerusalem is more than one people could bear.Every other people so conquered and exiled has in time disappeared. Only the Jews defied the norm. Twice.
btw,Can you imagine anyone asking whether the United States will survive or whether it should exist? Or anyone saying `no' if asked?Israel is the only country in the world facing a concerted delegitimization campaign that makes this question relevant.

[Ren987]

Germany didn't start WW2. A conspiracy between Roosevlet, Churchill, and Stalin started WW2.
http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/showthread.php?p=3134968#post3134968

In all seriousness, this is the first post of "Lee" in MP.net one week ago. Don't feed the troll.

[deagle]

well, what makes you think they won't /can't ?

you say that "...Israel is just a tiny little blob in a sea of hostile arabs that have sworn to wipe her out at the first opportunity..."

but i don't they would do so due to regional turmoil.

[Britboy]

Oh of course we don't want this to descend into some terrible slanging match. And I don't think this should be the place for people to rant or to make judgements on what is right/wrong, but to look for cause and effect and try and understand the mechanics of it all.

But I think that looking at the State of Israel and her unique military history could give us an insight into modern warfare and statecraft. She's certainly in a unique position.

Israel in the past, I believe, had a policy of using land as defence. Gaining the Golan or the Sinai would've provided a buffer zone to allow Israel time to mobilise.

But since Israel now has nuclear weapons, such a buffer zone, such assurance, isn't really required as I understand it, as greater assurance is provided by the nuclear detterent effect.

No nation can threaten, as they once might have done, to push Israel into the sea, as she would have the option of inflicting unacceptable losses on that nation.

That's not to say that Israel couldn't conceivably get a bloody nose from an adversary in some limited war that nuclear weapons could never be justifiably deployed in, but I just can't see someone pushing a nuclear power to the brink in a war of national survival. It'd be A Bad Thing.

I suppose the reality of it is though, that the IDF has been seen as so competent as to make all that pretty much academic anyway - conventional forces likely wouldn't let it get to that stage in a major war, and in a limited war, it seems they are the ones handing out the bloody noses, not the other way around.

Thoughts?

BB

[Kampfbaer]

What about demographics?

As far as I know the jewish Israelis have a reproduction rate comparable to most western countries and therefore without immigration the jewish population would decline.

On the other hand the Palestenians and Arab-Israelis are said to reproduce at a much larger rate.

Won´t this lead to future problems?

[pacifist]

ISAIAH 41:12-14
" Though you search for your enemies, you will not find them. Those who wage war against you will be as nothing at all. For i am the lord, your god, who takes hold of your right hand and says to you do not fear i will help you. Do not be afraid oh jacob o little israel, for i myself will help you declares the lord, your redeemer, the holy one of israel.



:cantbeli:

You annoy me.

[jokuvaan]

If some hostile group/individual can get hold of very powerful weapon, maybe nuclear or something that has not been invented yet, then its possible that over 95% population will get killed in which case you could say that state or Israel no longer exists.

It will be hard technological race to develop protection mechanisms against these weapons because technology has tendency to spread inevitability.
Nevermind scenario where weapon is given ready to hand.

I dont think Israel is under danger by conventional armed invasion for next 100 years, after that it will be too difficult to estimate what sort weapons there are and who has them.

A lot will depend on what direction Muslim religion goes for next few hundred years. Less there are hostile groups less there is chance for destruction. Also if Israel can make good Palestine, Syria and Lebanon relationships then it also lowers chance of destruction big time.

Israel must realise that its much easier to have good relationships than have costly arms race ->barbed wire->wall->missile shield->energy shield and so on...

[Britboy]

True, but it's pretty difficult, nigh on impossible probably, to have "good relationships" with states that will not even recognise you or your right to exist.

Israel enjoying good relations with the Palestinians?

I think the best that can be hoped for is detente, or a period of 'withholds' - 'you don't carry out suicide bombings, we will stop incursions' and suchlike.

[Nizark]

Because Stone Cold said so?

[Kevlarhead]

I´m not so concerned about Israel really. Israel has the will to survive, and she is ready to fight those who is trying to harm her.
Now for Europe I´m more concerned...

[Kermanshah1]

Personally, I don't think it will last for more than 50 years...

[Snoshi]

Oh noes Kermanshah1 is here :)

[IDF_TANKER]

Check this out: http://www.mapsofwar.com/images/EMPIRE17.swf

History tends to repeat itself, and civilizations tend to come and go.

Yep, empires and peoples rise and fall, only Jews stay. Besides, according to this demo the Israel is going to be replaced by Assyrians... hmmm... I don't think there is a good chance this is going to happen. p-)

[Kermanshah1]

Oh noes Kermanshah1 is here :)

You know me from IDF?

[little icebear]

I don't think there is a good chance it going to happen. p-)

That´s what you believe now... I doubt you´ll be laughing when you´re being ran over by an Assyrian chariot! :D

Say hello to your new overlords: http://www.kriegsreisende.de/antike/antik-img/assyrer.jpg

[Britboy]

I for one welcome our reptilian overlords?

[egyptian73]

miliary power is not only the only way to survive , any nation needs to solve its problems with its neighbours and solve its internal problems too.

with thousands of tanks , space invasion , nukes and ability to destroy the whole world may be 3 or 4 times , the soviet union for example didnt last long. who could bet a cent on that in 70's for example.
i think the main problems that will face israel in the long term (not so long) is the ratio between the its population and the arabs ,the need to more lands ,more water resources .

[Britboy]

I wouldn't have thought Israel, as a high-tech country with much coastline (desalination), as well as the Jordan and the mountains in the North, would have a major drama with water. There again, who can tell, with climate change.

I suppose demographics may be against them as a previous poster noted. But Israel has always had Muslims and Arabs as citizens within it's borders. So this alone I think will not cause 'the end of the State of Israel', as Israel is more inclusive than that (I believe 20% are now non-Jews).

I suppose the question is, whether Israel would maintain it's identity as a majority-Jewish, or even as THE Jewish state.

[little icebear]

When the wealth of the Arab-Israelis increases, their habbit of procreation will adjust to the rate of Jewish people in Israel.
Decline of birthrate is an effect, caused by the adjustment of people´s lifestyles to the modernization. Poor people make more babies, that´s the thing.

[Britboy]

Are there any sources or studies on this LI?

I know many people who have anecdotes about this, but it just seems odd, surely more money = more ability to provide for children.

I know birthrates in Europe are dropping relative to the rest of the world, and particularly the developing world I believe, but I'm just interested in why, as this seems counter to what you might expect.

Unless more kids is a subconcious 'insurance policy' in poor societies: more risk of infant death, so more kids gives more chance some will get through to adulthood.

[IDF_TANKER]

When the wealth of the Arab-Israelis increases, their habbit of procreation will adjust to the rate of Jewish people in Israel.
Decline of birthrate is an effect, caused by the adjustment of people´s lifestyles to the modernization. Poor people make more babies, that´s the thing.
If this only was that simple... Consider the huge Bedoin community, for example, basically managing the exactly same way of life as they ancestors hundreds of years ago. Also, one must realize that Israeli Arabs very much differ between themselves. Christian Arabs, for example, is probably the richest and the most educated community in Israel (if you take all the Jews as one separate community(not to mention Bedoins, Muslim Arabs, Druzes etc.)) - no kidding.

[little icebear]

Is the size of the Beduin community rising or to they have a stable demographic history?

[egyptian73]

i think that if israel(with europe and usa)give more attention to raise the economy of the palastenians in the west bank and gaza and also the arabs in israel itself. i think that will decrease the tension between both sides (putting jerusalem and the right to return aside now).

[Hollis]

i think that if israel(with europe and usa)give more attention to raise the economy of the palastenians in the west bank and gaza and also the arabs in israel itself. i think that will decrease the tension between both sides (putting jerusalem and the right to return aside now).



Problem is the money gets................ well, remember Arafat died a multi-billionaire, while "his" people suffered.

[nu4idf]

(putting jerusalem and the right to return aside now).

Lets be honest these to items are not on the table at any point. There is no right to return for these arabs they left on there own free before the state of israel was declared at the encouragement of the Arab leaders and for fear of war.

[little icebear]

Are there any sources or studies on this LI?

I know many people who have anecdotes about this, but it just seems odd, surely more money = more ability to provide for children.

I know birthrates in Europe are dropping relative to the rest of the world, and particularly the developing world I believe, but I'm just interested in why, as this seems counter to what you might expect.


Yes, there are a lot of sources for this - perhaps not specifically about Israel but about the general development of demographics.
You can look into pretty much every sociology-book dealing with this topic.



Unless more kids is a subconcious 'insurance policy' in poor societies: more risk of infant death, so more kids gives more chance some will get through to adulthood.

That´s the main reason why it works this way. And it is not subconcious but part of the plan. People made even more babies, when they had to expect that some wont make it into adulthood.
What is subconcious is that it takes a few generations to leave this path, although other methods of providing financial security for the elders are already availlable. Pragmatism turns into tradition and traditions need some some time to be overcome. But it is already happening (amongst muslim immigrants in Europe in example, although some fearmongers are still claiming that the muslims will outnumber us soon).

[Snoshi]

Right of return is just a Palestinian "joker" card that they use when they want to end negotiations or reject peace-treaties. They perfectly know that even the most leftist Israeli goverment will never sign under a document that grants Palestinians "right of return".

[tomahawk6]

The real question should be Can Israel Survive the Olmert Government ? He has to be the worst PM in Israeli history.

[Flagg]

What about demographics?

As far as I know the jewish Israelis have a reproduction rate comparable to most western countries and therefore without immigration the jewish population would decline.

On the other hand the Palestenians and Arab-Israelis are said to reproduce at a much larger rate.

Won´t this lead to future problems?

You bring up a very important point.

Look at fairly recent history, just two examples:

Rhodesia/Zimbabwe

South Africa

In both cases, highly educated, highly trained, highly motivated, and well armed(including nuke-armed in South Africa) non-indigenous(without going off-topic about it) ethnic minorities WON EVERY BATTLE, but ultimately lost the demographic, media, public opinion, and political wars.

Israel's sovereign neighbours have failed miserably in attempting to destroy it by conventional and unconventional armed conflict over the last 60+ years.

It would be easy to claim Israel will last forever for all eternity......but arrogance like that generally ends in a lot of pain.

If I were an enemy of Israel I would strongly consider the following steps to victory:

1.) Halt all direct violence against Israelis under penalty of death to reduce/eliminate primary negative public relations against the cause.

2.) Use the tactics of the North Vietnamese in peace talks with the US modified for context......beg for peaceful coexistence, give nothing, debate the placement of the room's furniture and placesettings for all eternity.

3.) Massive and organized non-violent civil disobedience designed to achieve one purpose..the destruction of the Israeli economy...Israel's reservist heavy military is able to surge very quickly to react to threats...but at great cost to the economy.

4.) Use South African ANC tactics like "necklacing" to publically execute all non-Jewish Israeli sympathizers/informants

5.) Birth lots of babies...For every Israeli Jew born, or new Jewish Alia migrant, birth 4 non-Jewish babies

6.) Be patient....wait 25 years...it's already been 60 years..what's 25 more?

7.) Use both numerical superiority and time to negate Israel's overwhelming financial, technological, and military advantage

8.) Scream "Apartheid!"

If I were an Israeli Jew I'd be doing the following to ensure the continued existence of a Jewish State:

1.) Shifting financial expenditure away from conventional military capability and more towards unconventional/assymmetric capability. Israel has been towards the forefront here globally, but my guess is that even a blank cheque wouldn't be enough to invest in developing new capabilities here. Nuclear armed Jerichos, Merkavas, and Pythons can't stop unarmed, motivated, and disciplined masses bent on mass civil disobedience.

2.) Develop pseduo/false flag organizations to identify/reduce/eliminate threat posed by any potential local Ghandis or Mandelas before they reach their potential....destroy, discredit, and sow dissention amongst and between individual leaders and groups before they achieve "brand recognition".

4.) Maximize efforts to reduce the birthrate of non-Jewish Israelis/residents directly via free or incentivised sterilization and indirectly via efforts to improve quality of life/standard of living.

5.) Shifting allegiance AWAY from a US centric posture and aggressively courting/pursuing stronger ties with China(current UN Security Council vote) and India(future UN Security Council Vote), as well as to a lesser extent Russia(current UN Security Council vote) and Brazil(future UN Security Council vote). Past Israeli history has seen Israelis closest allies drop them like a hot potato(France/UK) when the poop has hit the fan. Best not to put all of Israel's eggs in one basket.

Personally, I have no irons in this fire.....I only see further perpetual conflict in the region.

It's not my fight.......but the huge way it potentially afects me indirectly makes it my problem.

I kind of view it as a couple of neighbours down the street with a lot of squatters on the lawn arguing at 3am.......nearly every night......for 60 years.....with driveby shootings every so often.......and of course suspected nukes in the basement.

Some quiet at 3am so everyone could get some sleep would be nice for a change.

[[WDW]Megaraptor]

How about declaring a Palestinian state and taking steps towards a more inclusive democratic society?

That would take the edge off of non-Arab international criticism.

[Snoshi]

The Israeli "demographic" problem is not as "critical" as some people portray it.

Latests stats show that between 1997-2007 the number of born Jewish kids rose from 80,4k to 112k, while the arab number ramined at 39k.

Also the creation of Palestinian state(if it will happen) will help to reduce the number of Arabs in Israel.

[Kitsune]

I think it can be doubted wether Israel will survive the 21st century. However, the problem will not so much be this stuff about the "poor Israelis in the sea of Arab hostility" - that has never be as much of a difficulty as the Israelis claim. Considering Israels technological superiority, the massive support it receives from America and Europe, the fact that it is a nuclear power and the chronic inability of its Arab neighbours to agree on so much as the colour of human feces, it seems unlikely that the cause for Israels demise (if it indeed should happen) would come from without.
But it could very well come from within. It might go like this: one day, in the future, there are more Muslims than Jews within Israel, who demand to be treated with equal rights. After a time of supression, Israel is forced to grant this, and turns from a state of the Jews to a Muslim state with a big Jewish minority. A shrinking one, since many Jews decide to leave from now on. In other words, the Jewish settlement experiment ends similiar to he white one in South Africa.

[frenchy]

As long as jews control the army and the political things, it will be ok.

[Rudolph]

Some background info: Late decolonization (http://www.sscnet.ucla.edu/soc/soc237/papers/shafirucla.pdf). Compares Israel/South Africa/Northern-Ireland.

[Flagg]

The Israeli "demographic" problem is not as "critical" as some people portray it.

Latests stats show that between 1997-2007 the number of born Jewish kids rose from 80,4k to 112k, while the arab number ramined at 39k.

Also the creation of Palestinian state(if it will happen) will help to reduce the number of Arabs in Israel.

If so, then that's a good snapshot(if not a long-term trend) for Jewish Israel continuity.

I wish I was able to dig a bit deeper and look at Aliyah from every angle(preferably in Hebrew). Beyond just the philosophical desire to pursue Jewish emigration to Israel for religous/humanitarian reasons and more focused towards what I perceive as an incredibly aggressive pace of emigration at times.

The best three examples I can give are:

1.) Large-scale long-term emigration of ethnic Russian Jews to Israel in the 1970-90's. I can see the advantages of this being mainly two-fold

* To instantaneously add large numbers of often VERY well educated members of society to Israel who could become productive quite quickly once absorbed

*To instantaneously adjust any real/perceived Jewish/non-Jewish demographic

The downside is adding that many people so quickly would result in having brain surgeons and rocket scientists pushing brooms until they could be effectively absorbed.

2.) Large-scale emigration of East African Jews in the 80's-90's. I see few advantages(from a strictly clinical) besides the many obvious humanitarian reasons. The main being to adjust any real/perceived/potential issues regarding Jewish/non-Jewish demographics. I see many downsides to absorbing such a substantial number of people who share the same religion, but differ quite substantially in terms of culture, language, education, financial resources, etc.

3.) North American emigration. I don't know how substantial the numbers are but I could imagine they would be almost instantaneously absorbed into productive members of Jewish Israeli society. Anecdotally, it is this group, in my limited opinion, that appears to represent a fairly hawkish segment of Israeli Jews.

My GUESS is that about 20-25% of Jewish Israelis are new/recent immigrants(defined as moving to Israel within the last say 25 years or so).

If Aliyah did NOT exist...and net emigration by Jews to Israel was non-existent.....Jewish Israelis would only make up a bit over 50% of total population.

A tenuous grip at best........

I base this on a couple figures from Wikipedia(I know they aren't perfect, but it's good enough for a cocktail napkin calculation for this argument's sake).

What happens if all things remain equal, BUT Aliyah slows to a trickle and young Jewish Israelis tire of conflict and seek brighter opportunity elsewhere?

[eugekava]

who demand to be treated with equal rights. After a time of supression, Israel is forced to grant this, and turns from a state of the Jews to a Muslim state with a big Jewish minority. A shrinking one, since many Jews decide to leave from now on. In other words, the Jewish settlement experiment ends similiar to he white one in South Africa

I believe that Arab Israelis can vote, own property, study at Universities, etc.
There are some restrictions in accessing some sensitive positions in the Army and the Government, but I think that Arab Israelis have many more rights than black South Africans.
As to "settlement experiment", it is more like re-settlement, I don't think I have to elaborate on that.
Demographics may not be a serious problem now but in 100 to 200 years who knows? In France Algerian immigration was not considered a serious problem, now 10% of France is Muslim.
Unless Israelis reproduce at the same rate as Arabs, Israel will lose its Jewish identity eventually. Unless Muslims start converting to Judaism, but i don't see that happening.:)

[kahn267]

Although at times i am skeptic,
I believe the reason why Israel has survived this long is purely based on the belief that it literally has no choice but to win each war. The previous decades of war saw that if Israel lost, that meant the end of the Jewish state and sanctuary for the Jewish people. It also meant the complete annihilation of them too. This is different in contrast where surrounding Arab countries can lose wars to Israel because they dont face their land being concquered for the sake of it and not for stategic defense purposes as seen in the Golan Heights.

[Kaplanr]

The conjecture is annoying, but I am willing to nominate Flagg as PM to replace Olmert or any of the other also rans.

[Lee]

In all seriousness, this is the first post of "Lee" in MP.net one week ago. Don't feed the troll.

I made that post based on my knowledge of history as seen through facts given in many places on the causes of WW2. I'm not trying to justify any nations war or trying to establish the guilt in defense of any idealogy. Just the facts, please.

[Lee]

Israel has the bomb, and a program to arm conventional submarines with it I believe.

Just this fact alone, means she is pretty secure for the foreseeable.

Regards
BB

True that Israel has the bomb by we are talking about the future times also when arab countries get the bomb.(Pakistan is a muslim country and has the bomb already)

[Lee]

" Though you search for your enemies, you will not find them. Those who wage war against you will be as nothing at all. For i am the lord, your god, who takes hold of your right hand and says to you do not fear i will help you. Do not be afraid oh jacob o little israel, for i myself will help you declares the lord, your redeemer, the holy one of israel."

what about the Roman jewish wars when Israel went under?

[Lee]

Yep, empires and peoples rise and fall, only Jews stay. Besides, according to this demo the Israel is going to be replaced by Assyrians... hmmm... I don't think there is a good chance this is going to happen. p-)

I won't say what Israel's only alternative is to secure its existence far into the future.

[kahn267]

One thing that needs to change in order for Israel to survive is the removal of the corruption that is flooded throughout all areas of Israel's political system. There is too many misuse/embezzling of funds for the country to handle and it doesn't only effect the Israelis living there but to all the people, mainly diaspora Jews who donate millions each year.

A strength of Israel in the beginning few decades was that its leaders were the people who stood on the battle ground and fought or had been living there with the dream of a Jewish state long before it was ever named one.

Today the corruption and poor decision making has left alot of its people with a lack of faith and desire to leave the country as well as a large amount of youth with a hate of having to serve in the military where they dont support their leaders. A few decades ago, the country was strongly united and young boys had a dream to serve in the special forces or other high positions in the military, as it was held in the regard like a mother's pride that his son is becoming a doctor or a lawyer

Statistics prove that Israel's numbers for those wanting to join the special forces is on large decline and that stems from a lack of faith in its leaders today.

[Flamming_Python]

[/SIZE]Every other people so conquered and exiled has in time disappeared. Only the Jews defied the norm. Twice.

Yezids, Zoroastrians, Assyrians... they are still around.

[frenchy]

Yezids, Zoroastrians, Assyrians... they are still around.

It seems to me that, the real antique assyrian culture doesn't exist nowadays.

[egyptian73]

Problem is the money gets................ well, remember Arafat died a multi-billionaire, while "his" people suffered.
that is also something ,israel and the us have to deal with , is the corruption in the fath (plo) , because imo that thing made most of the palastenians to vote to hamas in the elections .
there must be safe means to make use of that money without reaching the (hands of the dogs).

[egyptian73]

There is no right to return for these (arabs they left on there own free) before the state of israel was declared at the encouragement of the Arab leaders and for fear of war.you know that sentence was like a stab in my heart .
those people left in hope that the brothers arabs will prevail , and make them return back to there homes (some still have the keys of thier homes).
but thier arab brothers let them down.

[Britboy]

How many of the current generation of Palestinians actually remember the events of 1948? Not many I'm betting.

I'm not going to try and say who is right and who is wrong here, I think that degenerates pretty quickly.

But from a purely practical point of view, Palestinians should view the land they live in now as their land. Because I think it unlikely in the extreme that they will go back to old Palestine, unless perhaps they gain entry as an Arab Israeli.

Surely assimilation into the surrounding Arab countries, or even the stabilisation of the lands into a decent State, are the ways forward here.

I wish that other countries had been more receiving of the Palestinians and spent a little of their oil revenue on decently housing for them, allowing them to integrate into society, rather than keeping them in 60yr 'refugee camps'.

Then in a generation or two, there would be significantly less tension in the region. Significantly fewer Palestinian youths would be outraged with Israel, and the reasons for (and recruiting ground for) terrorists would dry up.

Thoughts?
BB

[GREENMILITIA]

one thing for sure why ISRAEL would last and plays tough in the middle east its because of the REAL FACT we all must accept its because of "UCNLE SAM and EURO ALLIES" without? hahaha they've been long gone...

[Snoshi]

one thing for sure why ISRAEL would last and plays tough in the middle east its because of the REAL FACT we all must accept its because of "UCNLE SAM and EURO ALLIES" without? hahaha they've been long gone...

Hmm... Probably every nation on this planet would disappear if it did not have good ties to any other countries...

If we use your logic then if the USA did not support Europe during the Cold War then it would be long gone...

[kahn267]

Israel didnt have much support in its beginning, Israel had to find its way to get arms and even had secret underground bullet making from importing lipstick....

On some kibbutz somewhere there is remains of this ancient underground factory where it lay beneath a massive loud commercial washing machine where british soldiers would visit on a constant basis to wash their clothes..

The beginning War of Independance literally had barely an army with everyone fighting the fight that consisted of farmers and women with a **** weaponry arsenal

[swatteam6]

On some kibbutz somewhere there is remains of this ancient underground factory where it lay beneath a massive loud commercial washing machine where british soldiers would visit on a constant basis to wash their clothes..

The Kibbutz is called Ayalon Institute
Also i have a question: I heard that in 50 years Israel will no longer exist because the feeling of Zionism will be gone. Also if you look at the numbers, there are more poeple who want to leave ISrael then the amount of poeple who want to go and live there.
it is for this reaosn that some Poeple belive that ISrael that we know will be gone in 50 years.
what do you guys think of this?

[Snoshi]

The Kibbutz is called Ayalon Institute
Also i have a question: I heard that in 50 years Israel will no longer exist because the feeling of Zionism will be gone. Also if you look at the numbers, there are more poeple who want to leave ISrael then the amount of poeple who want to go and live there.
it is for this reaosn that some Poeple belive that ISrael that we know will be gone in 50 years.
what do you guys think of this?

How will that happen? If we use the same logic then many European countries will be "no longer exist" because of the higher emigration and lower immigration rates.

Lower Aliyah figures now is "natural". Aliyah figures cannot grow forever. The number of Aliyah makers is lower because of decreasing "Russian" numbers. During 1990's, 1 million Soviet Jews made aliyah to Israel, its not like you will be able to repeat the same today when the Russia is more stable and many of those who wanted to immigrate to Israel already made it.
While right now the aliyah from western countries is growing.

The hole definition of "modern" Zionism is debated even by the Israeli's.

[Kermanshah1]

How many of the current generation of Palestinians actually remember the events of 1948? Not many I'm betting.

I'm not going to try and say who is right and who is wrong here, I think that degenerates pretty quickly.

But from a purely practical point of view, Palestinians should view the land they live in now as their land. Because I think it unlikely in the extreme that they will go back to old Palestine, unless perhaps they gain entry as an Arab Israeli.

Surely assimilation into the surrounding Arab countries, or even the stabilisation of the lands into a decent State, are the ways forward here.

I wish that other countries had been more receiving of the Palestinians and spent a little of their oil revenue on decently housing for them, allowing them to integrate into society, rather than keeping them in 60yr 'refugee camps'.

Then in a generation or two, there would be significantly less tension in the region. Significantly fewer Palestinian youths would be outraged with Israel, and the reasons for (and recruiting ground for) terrorists would dry up.

Thoughts?
BB

Not true, almost all Palestinians still remember (even if they themselfes weren't there) how they were expelled from their country and most of them haven't given up (and won't give up any time soon) to try to get their land back.

[TheBelgian]

Israel will survive as long as the US is backing them with the world's most powerful warmachine and unlimited funding. And even without this support, I dont think Israel will shuffle off this mortal coil any time soon. People around the world have been trying to exterminate the Jews for centuries, but they have proven to be a resilient and resourceful people. And that's back when they had nothing to fight with.
Now they have a (small) country, guarded by the region's most powerful military and doted on by rich sympathisers around the world. Whatever the future throws at it, I'm convinced Israel can take it.

[ZARDOZ]

For a good read and a better understanding of the region and its history of shifting sands of power, read: "Where God Was Born": A Journey by Land to the Roots of Religion: By Bruce Feiler.

It covers the history of Israel and the Jewish population pretty well. The writer is Jewish and makes some interestign insights while there on his interpretations of the Hebrew bible and how it has influenced his people in the region through history. It also has comments from his visits to sites in Iraq with American service men and women.

As for Israel's presence in the Middle East, I can not but help to think after what they went through during WWII, that there is a mindset of "we are here to stay or else". In terms of the previous mentions of Nuclear arms. If their existence should be threatend again like it was in WWII, by Arabic/Muslim forces where calls for Israels complete destruction are put forth. You may find a nation that has no problem turning all of its neighbors sand into glass. I only think this will come about though if they are first hit with some form of a WMD.

Other than that, it is simply birth rates and elections that will determine their future.

[Snoshi]

Not true, almost all Palestinians still remember (even if they themselfes weren't there) how they were expelled from their country and most of them haven't given up (and won't give up any time soon) to try to get their land back.

There were probably iduvidual cases.. But the hole Palestinian "exodus" started when Arab leaders gave them promises of return after the Jews would be cast in to the sea.

Palestinian nationalist Aref el-Aref

The Arabs thought they would win in less than the twinkling of an eye and that it would take no more than a day or two from the time the Arab armies crossed the border until all the colonies were conquered and the enemy would throw down his arms and cast himself on their mercy.
A leading Palestinian nationalist of the time, Musa Alami

The Arabs of Palestine left their homes, were scattered, and lost everything. But there remained one solid hope: The Arab armies were on the eve of their entry into Palestine to save the country and return things to their normal course, punish the aggressor, and throw oppressive Zionism with its dreams and dangers into the sea. On May 14, 1948, crowds of Arabs stood by the roads leading to the frontiers of Palestine, enthusiastically welcoming the advancing armies. Days and weeks passed, sufficient to accomplish the sacred mission, but the Arab armies did not save the country. They did nothing but let slip from their hands Acre, Sarafand, Lydda, Ramleh, Nazareth, most of the south and the rest of the north. Then hope fled. (Middle East Journal, October 1949)
Haled al Azm, the Syrian Prime Minister in 1948*-49

Since 1948 we have been demanding the return of the refugees to their homes. But we ourselves are the ones who encouraged them to leave. Only a few months separated our call to them to leave and our appeal to the United Nations to resolve on their return.
Monsignor George Hakim, a Greek Orthodox Catholic Bishop of Galilee told the Beirut newspaper

The refugees were confident their absence would not last long, and that they would return within a week or two. Their leaders had promised them that the Arab armies would crush the 'Zionist gangs' very quickly and that there was no need for panic or fear of a long exile.

Refugee quoted in the Jordan newspaper, Ad Difaa (September 6, 1954), said:

The Arab government told us: Get out so that we can get in. So we got out, but they did not get in.
Habib Issa said in the New York Lebanese paper, Al Hoda

The Secretary-General of the Arab League, Azzam Pasha, assured the Arab peoples that the occupation of Palestine and Tel Aviv would be as simple as a military promenade. He pointed out that they were already on the frontiers and that all the millions the Jews had spent on land and economic development would be easy booty, for it would be a simple matter to throw Jews into the Mediterranean....Brotherly advice was given to the Arabs of Palestine to leave their land, homes and property and to stay temporarily in neighboring fraternal states, lest the guns of the invading Arab armies mow them down.

[Britboy]

I'm sure they do 'remember', as in there is a culture of remembrance, but what I meant to say was, how many were there when it happened?

However, this remembrance has been passed down to succeeding generations, so now we have people fighting over what happened 60yrs ago when they weren't even alive.

If this passing on of the doctrine was dropped, then this could result in a more peaceful new generation, one that could have its own state, or become successfully integrated into the other Arab states. We'd have a more stable, more peaceful Middle East potentially.

Well, I'm no expert, and of course it's an incredibly emotive subject, and I really can't say who is right or wrong or whatever, but from a purely practical point of view it seems to me the next generation need to grow up without the concept of this birthright, in order to put a stop to the cycle of violence.

But then I'm sure smarter people have me have tried to put an end to this within the last 60yrs and failed, and it's all above my payscale anyhow!

Regards
BB

[Kermanshah1]

I'm sure they do 'remember', as in there is a culture of remembrance, but what I meant to say was, how many were there when it happened?

However, this remembrance has been passed down to succeeding generations, so now we have people fighting over what happened 60yrs ago when they weren't even alive.

If this passing on of the doctrine was dropped, then this could result in a more peaceful new generation, one that could have its own state, or become successfully integrated into the other Arab states. We'd have a more stable, more peaceful Middle East potentially.

Well, I'm no expert, and of course it's an incredibly emotive subject, and I really can't say who is right or wrong or whatever, but from a purely practical point of view it seems to me the next generation need to grow up without the concept of this birthright, in order to put a stop to the cycle of violence.

But then I'm sure smarter people have me have tried to put an end to this within the last 60yrs and failed, and it's all above my payscale anyhow!

Regards
BB

As long as Israel is not willing to give them a fair share of the land and ofcourse gives Palestinians outside it the right of return there will never be peace and considering Israel is not even willing to give them the West Bank and Gaza strip back completly, they only want to give small parts of it which are not connected to each other I don't see any peace coming any time soon.

[Britboy]

Like I said, I'm no expert, and smarter minds have tried and failed on this issue.

But it pains me to see people fighting, suffering, dying, exploited over something that happened before their birth, when it seems they would be able to fit perfectly well into Jordanian, or Syrian, mainstream society, for example. Especially when regaining the old Palestine seems so unrealistic a proposition.

Again, its a very emotive subject, and not being Arabic or Jewish I couldnt possibly appreciate how high feelings are running over this. And I am really not aiming to pass judgement on either side in any way - I just wish that an end could be found to it all. I'm sure that both sides will have to make concessions towards any possible future solution however.

[jonosk]

:cantbeli:

You annoy me.

Well some times the truth hurts

[Kermanshah1]

Like I said, I'm no expert, and smarter minds have tried and failed on this issue.

But it pains me to see people fighting, suffering, dying, exploited over something that happened before their birth, when it seems they would be able to fit perfectly well into Jordanian, or Syrian, mainstream society, for example. Especially when regaining the old Palestine seems so unrealistic a proposition.

Again, its a very emotive subject, and not being Arabic or Jewish I couldnt possibly appreciate how high feelings are running over this. And I am really not aiming to pass judgement on either side in any way - I just wish that an end could be found to it all. I'm sure that both sides will have to make concessions towards any possible future solution however.

You could say the same about Jews, their families left the country 2000 years ago...

The only difference between Israel and the Palestinians on the peace issue is that the Israelis do it cleaverly. Whie Palestinians are talking about destroying Israel, Israel is trying to make it seem as if they want peace, while in real they have no such intention.

Have you seen their peace proposall to Syria? They didn't even want to give the whole Golan heights back. Instead of 1967 borders they want to go back to 1947 borders, the zone has to be de militarised, Syria has to stop all support to Hizbollah and Palestinian groups, cut all ties with Iran, recognise Israel, stop the boycott, ect.

So it seems they want peace and Syria doesn't, but who would accept a peace treaty like that?

[Hollis]

that is also something ,israel and the us have to deal with , is the corruption in the fath (plo) , because imo that thing made most of the palastenians to vote to hamas in the elections .
there must be safe means to make use of that money without reaching the (hands of the dogs).


I agree, "Tis the Rub", There are other nations that are players in this conflict, they too have to go a long with the program.

As for as voting for Hamas, when people are controlled by thug terrorist's groups their choices are 1) damned if they do, 2) damned if they don't.

Sadly many of the so-called supporters of the Palestinian people really don't support the people but the thug terrorist's groups who make billions on the suffering of the Palestinian people.

The gross hypocrisy of the situation is that those nations (or even supporters) that support the "liberation" would not tolerate the same situation to exist in their own lands that Israel has to live with.

[Winger]

What about demographics?

As far as I know the jewish Israelis have a reproduction rate comparable to most western countries and therefore without immigration the jewish population would decline.

On the other hand the Palestenians and Arab-Israelis are said to reproduce at a much larger rate.

Won´t this lead to future problems?

This is always problem. Most wars' true root cause can be pointed to overpopulation or growth of population which results in many problems such as competition for resources etc.

[Trenk]

what a question... Of course it can, Israelis can beat the sh.t from the rest of the middle east, but public opinion is somehow sick, so it can be only problem...

[markjh]

what a question... Of course it can, Israelis can beat the sh.t from the rest of the middle east, but public opinion is somehow sick, so it can be only problem...

Yes, I think Israels biggest enemy is the ever growing political correctness in Europe etc.

[UoUo]

YES.

With brave UoUo it can.

[2Sheds_Jackson]

We've had sooo many "can Israel last" threads, and the answer always boils down to the same thing:

-plenty of water
-20 minute rest between sessions
-think about baseball
-to avoid abrasions, I'd recommend using anything from the 2Sheds line of fine personal lubricants such as 2Sheds MidEast Al-Sadr Love Liquid or in a pinch, 2Sheds Satanic Ass Cream.

[MPNFL]

We've had sooo many "can Israel last" threads, and the answer always boils down to the same thing:

-plenty of water
-20 minute rest between sessions
-think about baseball
-to avoid abrasions, I'd recommend using anything from the 2Sheds line of fine personal lubricants such as 2Sheds MidEast Al-Sadr Love Liquid or in a pinch, 2Sheds Satanic Ass Cream.

that comes highly recommended by 9 out of every 10 dentists.

[dava]

Ofcourse it won't last. They will be a minority in own country in some decades.
They try to turn the wheel by accepting lowlifes from eastern bloc who have jewish ancestry but that isnt helping much in the fight with the demograhy.

[ZARDOZ]

We've had sooo many "can Israel last" threads, and the answer always boils down to the same thing:

-plenty of water
-20 minute rest between sessions
-think about baseball
-to avoid abrasions, I'd recommend using anything from the 2Sheds line of fine personal lubricants such as 2Sheds MidEast Al-Sadr Love Liquid or in a pinch, 2Sheds Satanic Ass Cream.



Best answer period. Close thread, will not get any better.

Leave to a man wise in words to be wise in avatar. Brock Sampson, you rule.

[Niels]

Personally, I don't think it will last for more than 50 years...
Think, or hope? Nice signature. :roll:

http://www.pixjet.net/img/48d9c8d5a1e5def8ff565c8239c4ab32/Unt2323d-1.jpg

Get the **** out of my country.

[Col.O'neill]

Sure,particularly coming after the Holocaust, the worst calamity in Jewish history. To have survived it is miracle enough. Then to survive the destruction of that which arose to redeem it-the new Jewish state-is to attribute to Jewish nationhood and survival supernatural power.This is a people that miraculously survived two previous destructions and two millennia of persecution in the hope of ultimate return and restoration. Israel is that hope. To see it destroyed, to have Isaiahs and Jeremiahs lamenting the widows of Zion once again amid the ruins of Jerusalem is more than one people could bear.Every other people so conquered and exiled has in time disappeared. Only the Jews defied the norm. Twice.
btw,Can you imagine anyone asking whether the United States will survive or whether it should exist? Or anyone saying `no' if asked?Israel is the only country in the world facing a concerted delegitimization campaign that makes this question relevant.


right on brother

[Col.O'neill]

:cantbeli:

You annoy me.


pacifists and finns annoy me :)

[ren0312]

Over the years Ive heard many discussions by jews and non jews about wether or not Israel could survive into the far future because Israel is just a tiny little blob in a sea of hostile arabs that have sworn to wipe her out at the first opportunity. What has kept Israel secure and confident in the past is that Israel's armanents were of better quality than the arabs and Israel's training of their soldiers was of more quality since they were training much less men than the arabs. So Israel had more officers per 100 soldiers than the arabs. Also, Israel always was able to take on one or two arab countries at a time without fighting all at once. That didn't always hold true of course. And Isreal's policy was to set back an enemy 5 or 10 years before they would be able to fight again. But with the war in Lebnanon in 2006 revealed that superiority of Israel's is now put into question and that sends a chill up and down the spine of Israel. If Hezbollah's tactics would work for the Syrians and other enemies of Israel then Israel would be in real trouble. Although i couldn't see Israel getting wiped out its not to imagine that against so many enemies she can last either. I have no answers but sometimes wonder anyway what the future holds. Any ideas on this.

My impression is that Israel is a modern version of the Crusader states, and you know how long they lasted.

[[WDW]Megaraptor]

My impression is that Israel is a modern version of the Crusader states, and you know how long they lasted.


Not quite, there is only one Israel but there were four crusader states which sometimes fought each other in addition to the Arabs and Turks.

[little icebear]

...and you know how long they lasted.

It depends on how you want to count the years. All in all they lasted several centuries. ;)

[Hollis]

We've had sooo many "can Israel last" threads, and the answer always boils down to the same thing:

-plenty of water
-20 minute rest between sessions
-think about baseball
-to avoid abrasions, I'd recommend using anything from the 2Sheds line of fine personal lubricants such as 2Sheds MidEast Al-Sadr Love Liquid or in a pinch, 2Sheds Satanic Ass Cream.


Maybe it is time to say good night to this thread.