China's Dangerous Ascent and Russia's Response

[Eratosthenes]

By Boris Ryvkin

The recent release of Dr. Constantine Menges’ China: the Gathering Threat in the Russian Federation demonstrates a growing interest in analyses of the rise and intentions of China’s Communist regime. Through an artificial pricing of exports, the closure of their domestic market to Western business, and the systematic reduction of labor wages, the Chinese have engaged in a dangerously one-sided trading game with their international partners. The aim has not been the expansion of human rights and democratization, but a determined effort to achieve global hegemony. Of all its potential foes, the United States has been officially declared the “main threat.” In what may be the greatest geopolitical game since Nixon’s Triangular Diplomacy, Menges lays out the steps the US must take to contain China’s ambitions and protect our global position.

While the text centers on US strategy and attitudes towards China’s rise, Russia’s role in the unfolding drama is vitally important. The release of the book in Russia has renewed discussion about a topic tabooed by many in the political and military inner circle. Lack of discussion about the territorial threat posed by Chinese expansion to Russia’s Far Eastern territories, authority in Central Asia, and status as a great power stems from a larger confusion and nostalgia plaguing Russian foreign policy. As the forward to the Russian edition reveals, ignorance in no way replaces truth. As Russian policymakers debate the demographic crisis looming across Siberia and the Far East, see an Islamist surge across Central Asia and the Caucasus, and miss opportunities to move closer to the West, the Chinese threat will become more acute and Menges’ work will only grow in influence.

The Chinese Communist Party has undergone a transformation of means, but not purpose. The era of Mao Zedong’s land reforms, the Great Leap Forward, and the Cultural Revolution have given way to Hu Jintao’s more temperate but no less lethal Communist dictatorship. The Mao era led to the deaths or imprisonment of over 70 million Chinese, a crippling of the agricultural sector, and a decimation of China’s intellectuals. Having declared his regime one of “true” Communism, Mao dreamed of Chinese dominance across Eurasia.

Following his death in 1976, and with the next decade seeing the rapid undermining of Communist regimes in the USSR and Eastern Europe, the Chinese Communists made a momentous decision. Proceeding in the direction of economic liberalization and reduced regimentation, they forcefully repressed any democratization efforts and signs of dissent against party control. Advances in information technology and increased minority demands for equality and representation have led to swift reaction. An extensive labor camp network remains operational, Buddhists and other religious groups are targeted, and the media remains under heavy state oversight. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization, of which China is a key member, has made controlling internet speech a priority equal to fighting international terrorism. Internal political divisions are, nevertheless, evident within the Party. Hard-line elements within the military and parts of the Central Committee push for greater use of force against Taiwan and Japan, as well as a return to Mao’s economic policies. They are subordinate to more moderate leaders, who see greater promise in the present combination of economic development and political repression. Most of the pro-democratic voices have been relegated to political oblivion.

After crushing student protests at Tiananmen Square, the regime tightened its hold on Tibet, intimidated Taiwan with ballistic missile over-flights, and engaged in nuclear proliferation efforts with North Korea, Libya, Iraq, and Iran. With 40% of its exports going to the US, which has extended and renewed China’s most favored trading nation status since 1982, China has used its estimated $732 billion cumulative trade surplus for military expansion. The hard currency earnings of the regime, which has greatly invested in international bond markets, have approached $1.5 trillion in dealings with Japan, the EU, and the US. According to the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, recent estimates place Chinese land-based nuclear missile strength at 80, with 20 ICBMs having a range of up to 5,000 miles (Norris and Kristensen, 2006). The CIA and the Defense Intelligence Agency predict a several-fold increase in warhead quantity by the end of the decade, but deployment has stabilized the past six years. The Chinese are developing two new solid-fueled missiles and expanding their submarine capabilities. An army of 2.3 million, the largest standing force in the world, only adds to the danger.

Chinese military doctrine sees war with the “US hegemonists” as inevitable and seeks dominance by indirect conflict. The aim is to push the US out of the Pacific Rim and the Far East by coercion and provocation. The consensus among the general staff seems to be that the US will not fight over Taiwan, and a weakening of US influence in Japan and South Korea is only a matter of time. A confused US response over North Korea and a not so favorable situation in Iraq only fuel Chinese assessment of the US as a paper tiger. The great Sun Tzu argued that “to subdue the enemy without fighting is the acme of skill,” and it is clear the Chinese are making the most of this maxim. Of its 24 neighboring states, China has territorial claims to at least 11 and has used its demographic advantage to push into Siberia; this places the rising giant on a possible collision course with a still not fully recovered former giant: Russia. To effectively handle the Chinese threat, Russia is essential. It has diverged in post-Communist development from its eastern neighbor, has serious concerns about its role in the international system, and retains a sizeable nuclear arsenal.

Russia’s reception of Menges’ book holds incalculable importance. Vitaly Tsigichko wrote the official forward to the Russian edition. He highlights the threat of China to his nation’s Far Eastern territories. “A conclusion can be reached that China must expand its ‘living space’ in accordance with increased economic and military growth against the interests of weaker neighbors, including Russia” (Tsigichko, 2006). A demographic occupation of Central Siberia and Baikal by waves of Chinese migrants is equally worrisome. “The hegemonic ambitions of China pose an unprecedented threat to the Russia’s interests in Asia and the Pacific” (Tsigichko, 2006). Menges himself hypothesizes a worse-case scenario, where sweeping Chinese annexation of Russia’s eastern territories would reduce the once mighty empire to the size of historical Kievan Rus.

Tsigichko concludes the forward with a praise of the timeliness and incredible importance of the text to Russia’s political elite and administration. He argues that Russia has only two viable choices in dealing with China. It can realign with the democratic West, which would mean a change in attitudes towards the US and a reassessment of Russian policy in the Middle East and Central Asia, to contain China’s hegemonic ambitions. The alternative sees Russia becoming a poker chip in China’s geopolitical games, ceding most of Eastern Siberia, and ending its existence as a relevant player in the international system.

Russia’s current policy predicaments are directly linked to the highly negative and disillusioned view of the Yeltsin era. The shock-therapy model advocated by Gaidar and Yeltsin in 1992, which saw full-scale liberalization of wages and prices combine with an end to state industrial subsidies, was advertised as the best way to shake off the nation’s Communist stagnation. Growth was promised in two years, but the nation faced six years of rising inflation, declining pensions, and a wage non-payment crisis. Yeltsin’s government placed economic transition ahead of institutional and legal reform, leading to problems with both. The storming of the White House, a two year quagmire in Chechnya, and the cementation of oligarchic control of the Kremlin following the 1996 Presidential election sent hopes for a brighter future plummeting.

Putin’s foreign and domestic policies have exploited popular disenchantment to send Russia on a perilous course. Bureaucratic centralization, the loss of regional autonomy, and the decapitation of whatever remained of a relevant Duma have gone hand in hand with growing anti-Western hysteria. The regime has, along with joining the SCO, signed mutual cooperation and military defense treaties with its Chinese neighbor. Russia has opposed efforts to sanction Iran and North Korea for their violent provocations, seeks to undermine US interests in Central Asia, and desires a coalition defeat in Iraq. Russia has cooperated with Palestinian terror groups and restricted NGO operations inside its borders. Putin dismissed suggestions of western mediation in the Chechen conflict and forcefully opposes an expansion of colored revolutions into Eastern Europe.

The Russians are dangerously trying to play off the West and the Chinese, despite rejecting their identification with the former and underestimating the threat posed by the latter. It seems foolish not to take Chinese ambitions and doctrine seriously vis a vis Russia’s eastern territory, Central Asian influence, and Middle Eastern strategy. The Chinese seek global dominance, while the US wants to keep the status quo (which leaves Russia fully in control of its sovereign territory). Building security and economic relations with the Chinese may seem logical from the perspective of a Russia following the Lavrov non-alignment formula, but illogical in a Russia committed to maintaining long-term relevance and sovereignty. Our greatest hope, both for a secure US and a stable Russia, lies in Menges’ words gaining more traction within our old rival’s policy circles.

Boris Ryvkin is a student in political science at Brown University and a researcher in Hudson's Center for Future Security Strategies.



Andrei Piontkovsky is a visiting fellow with Hudson Institute.



http://www.hudson.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=publication_details&id=4140



Please note this is not intended as a flamebait - I'd like to know what the opinions of Russian members of MP.net are regarding this article.

[Bongopete]

I have posed similar questions previously and the answers I have gotten is that Russia doesnt consider China any sort of threat at all. They are China's best friend (well..maybe the French are China's).

[Flamming_Python]

Tsigichko concludes the forward with a praise of the timeliness and incredible importance of the text to Russia’s political elite and administration. He argues that Russia has only two viable choices in dealing with China. It can realign with the democratic West, which would mean a change in attitudes towards the US and a reassessment of Russian policy in the Middle East and Central Asia, to contain China’s hegemonic ambitions. The alternative sees Russia becoming a poker chip in China’s geopolitical games, ceding most of Eastern Siberia, and ending its existence as a relevant player in the international system.


Assuming that China's intentions really are what is written here, than either of these 2 options would mean the reducing of borders back to the times of Kievan Rus'

Only option, is for Russia to reject both, and develop its own center of power.

[Eratosthenes]

Assuming that China's intentions really are what is written here, than either of these 2 options would mean the reducing of borders back to the times of Kievan Rus'

Only option, is for Russia to reject both, and develop its own center of power.

I'm not saying I think that Russia should follow the first option, but I fail to see how it would lead to a contraction of Russia's borders?

Regarding Russia becoming its own center of power, what sort of power do you mean?

[Flamming_Python]

I'm not saying I think that Russia should follow the first option, but I fail to see how it would lead to a contraction of Russia's borders?

Regarding Russia becoming its own center of power, what sort of power do you mean?

Simple. With Russia under the West's wing, Russia would be perceived as part of the West, no longer it's own unique civilisation, and a weak power incapable of standing on its own feet, not to mention the fact that there would be less capital and money flowing through Russia's treasury. What use will the Russian republics have for such a power? They might as well declare independence and either join the West as independent states, or join for example the rising Muslim world.

As for center of power, no particular kind of power, and no particular kind of ideology is neccessary. Just independence from the whole Christian vs. Muslim vs. China thing, surrounded by a ring of buffer states which will protect it from such outside influences.

[Eratosthenes]

Simple. With Russia under the West's wing, Russia would be perceived as part of the West, no longer it's own unique civilisation, and a weak power incapable of standing on its own feet, not to mention the fact that there would be less capital and money flowing through Russia's treasury. What use will the Russian republics have for such a power? They might as well declare independence and either join the West as independent states, or join for example the rising Muslim world.

As for center of power, no particular kind of power, and no particular kind of ideology is neccessary. Just independence from the whole Christian vs. Muslim vs. China thing, surrounded by a ring of buffer states which will protect it from such outside influences.

I don't think it's really a question of Russia placing itself under the wing of the West - that would never happen for obvious reasons. I think the article had something more like a strategic alliance in mind.

Surely it is wishful and naive thinking to suggest that Russia is immune or ever can be immune from the "Christian vs. Muslim thing"?

What are your views on the far-Eastern areas of Russia and Chinese encroachment of population?

[ocean]

I'm not saying I think that Russia should follow the first option, but I fail to see how it would lead to a contraction of Russia's borders?

Regarding Russia becoming its own center of power, what sort of power do you mean?

NATO is bascially pushing Russians out of Europe. Russia's future depends on how it will work with its neighbours.

[Flamming_Python]

Surely it is wishful and naive thinking to suggest that Russia is immune or ever can be immune from the "Christian vs. Muslim thing"?

On the contrary. We pretty much completely avoided this issue from 1917 to '79, when the Iranian revolution provoked fears that such sentiment could spread to Afghanistan, and from there to Central Asia.

It should be noted, that Central Asian Muslims are amongst the people's who most regretted the collapse of the USSR. Most muslim majority areas of Russia are very secular, even more so than many christian majority areas. Ideally, it should stay this way.

In my view, the Christian vs. Muslim thing is not because of the incompatibility of the religions, but due to the warfare and strife going on in the middle east between the USA and it's European partners on one side, and local governments on the other side, not to mention Israel.

Arabs generally have a positive view of Russia dating back to Cold War times. Again, ideally, it should stay this way.


What are your views on the far-Eastern areas of Russia and Chinese encroachment of population?Wait and see. If the Chinese population reaches over 20%, that's when we should start to take note, however any repression against the local Chinese population would be likely only to bring them to the embrace of China.

Another option, it doesn't matter how many Chinese we take on board, just be sure to balance them out with an equal number of North Koreans :D

[AlexMartin2]

Please note this is not intended as a flamebait - I'd like to know what the opinions of Russian members of MP.net are regarding this article.

Thanks for the article.
First, I want to say that this author and other russian people mentioned in article are totally unknown to me. And I read russian political sites (official and opposition) very often.
Second, in my opinion, this article is intented for US and western auditory, so there are a lot of BS about Russia and China also. Well, as usual, its just a statement of fact.
I will not comment parts about US-Chinese relations, and will focus on Russian-Chinese relations, as I personally understand it. I want to stress: its my personal opinion as of citisen of Russia.
Russia and China is not friends or allies. I can describe our relation as "Partners when its advantageous".
Today China do not pose any threat to Russia.
Threats can be of different kinds: military, economical, cultural, demografic, political.
Political and cultural threats from China are non-existent.
Economical threat is very small right now, because trade between our nations is not so big, around 20bln (I can be mistaken).
Demografic threat is very, very often exaggerated. I live in western Siberia and I seen chinese only once :) As I writed sometime ago on this forum, more than 150 000 chinese have returned home after a federal law which forbid forein citisens to fill all positions on local markets. Also most of the chinese are working in Russia illegally, they can be deported if demigrafic situation in Far East will make worse. But now we have very good demografic trend. It is possible that population of Russia start to increase in 2012.

And now our favorite, a military threat :) Well, I'm not an expert... But we have nukes, a lot :) I believe there can not be any big conflicts between nuclear powers.

Anyway, I will try to find an article of one of the best russian experts on China, where he wrote about possible conventional conflict between Russia and China. I can translate and post some parts of it there.

[speedythefreak]

Simple. With Russia under the West's wing, Russia would be perceived as part of the West, no longer it's own unique civilisation, and a weak power incapable of standing on its own feet, not to mention the fact that there would be less capital and money flowing through Russia's treasury. What use will the Russian republics have for such a power? They might as well declare independence and either join the West as independent states, or join for example the rising Muslim world.

As for center of power, no particular kind of power, and no particular kind of ideology is neccessary. Just independence from the whole Christian vs. Muslim vs. China thing, surrounded by a ring of buffer states which will protect it from such outside influences.

This debate regarding Russia's belonging to either West or East has been going around for decades in Russia, without being solved, so your position is kind of a «third positioning» option: Russia standing in it's own corner exporting energy to both East and the West and making money out of it. This was the case during the USSR era, with its huge production and a pool of satellite countries. But now it's Russia not USSR Python... as Russia is tributary on exports, and lost about 150 millions individuals in the dismentlement process of the USSR I cast some doubts on your point of view: Russia as a stand alone, self-indulge and self-relient power...

According to Kagan last article, Russia is an active member of the autocracies' club pitted against the western democracies ( by the way this club includes South Korea, Japan and India...). These autocracies are characterized by the will of their people for a strong state and a strong popular disdain for «western» values. Russian people, mostly due to the message of the orthodox church, despise liberal and democratic values viewed as corrupt, unpure, alien and overall morally inferior. The orthodox clergy opposed various russian autocrats Ivan IV, Peter the Great ( depicted as the Antichrist) just to name them. If it wasn't from guys like Peter or even Stalin (even if anti-western he was marxist, that is in fact a «western ideology» Russia wouldn't even be an industrialized country...Your «third positionning» attitude negates the historicity of Russia's relationship with both the West or the East, in a modern world this position is hardly sustainable...As for «western values», from what I've seen in Moscow, a lot of people adopted consumerism and do not give a da** about political rights, representation, and the rule of law, as long as they allowed to buy everything is fine. There's nothing to envy in fact to the US...

[Eratosthenes]

On the contrary. We pretty much completely avoided this issue from 1917 to '79, when the Iranian revolution provoked fears that such sentiment could spread to Afghanistan, and from there to Central Asia.

It should be noted, that Central Asian Muslims are amongst the people's who most regretted the collapse of the USSR. Most muslim majority areas of Russia are very secular, even more so than many christian majority areas. Ideally, it should stay this way.

In my view, the Christian vs. Muslim thing is not because of the incompatibility of the religions, but due to the warfare and strife going on in the middle east between the USA and it's European partners on one side, and local governments on the other side, not to mention Israel.

Arabs generally have a positive view of Russia dating back to Cold War times. Again, ideally, it should stay this way.

Wait and see. If the Chinese population reaches over 20%, that's when we should start to take note, however any repression against the local Chinese population would be likely only to bring them to the embrace of China.

Another option, it doesn't matter how many Chinese we take on board, just be sure to balance them out with an equal number of North Koreans :D
I wish I had your confidence with regard to the Islamic issue, but I don't. The central Asian muslims are indeed a different breed from most, but I didn't hear you mention Chechnya anywhere p-).

With regard to the Chinese issue, you mention 20%, but how will you know when that happens? From what I know, that part of Russia has pretty lax border controls etc., with most of the Chinese being illegals anyway.
Would Russia have the political and national will to act?

[Flamming_Python]

This debate regarding Russia's belonging to either West or East has been going around for decades in Russia, without being solved, so your position is kind of a «third positioning» option: Russia standing in it's own corner exporting energy to both East and the West and making money out of it. This was the case during the USSR era, with its huge production and a pool of satellite countries. But now it's Russia not USSR Python... as Russia is tributary on exports, and lost about 150 millions individuals in the dismentlement process of the USSR I cast some doubts on your point of view: Russia as a stand alone, self-indulge and self-relient power...

That may be so... but there is very good reason for the philosophy of Russia belonging to neither West nor East, for simple reason that there is no other way that it can be. Russia will simply cease to exist as either a state or an identity if it looses power to the point where it would be beneficial for it's Western, European peoples to join Europe, for it's Southern, Muslim peoples to join the Middle East, and for it's Eastern, Asian peoples to join Greater Asia. Actually those are exactly the forces which are tearing Russia right now, from 3 different directions (Western pull has eased up lately due to new Europhobia, Southern pull is consistent and will continue to be so until a real push for economical development takes place in the South, and Eastern pull is practically non-existent for now, but can potentially take root if xenophobia and poverty increases in society).

So Russia now has a choice. Either collapse into different parts, or pull itself together and form it's own center of power in the world, similar to current American/European and Chinese one, not to mention future Muslim/Middle Eastern, Indian and South American one.


According to Kagan last article, Russia is an active member of the autocracies' club pitted against the western democracies ( by the way this club includes South Korea, Japan and India...). These autocracies are characterized by the will of their people for a strong state and a strong popular disdain for «western» values. Russian people, mostly due to the message of the orthodox church, despise liberal and democratic values viewed as corrupt, unpure, alien and overall morally inferior. The orthodox clergy opposed various russian autocrats Ivan IV, Peter the Great ( depicted as the Antichrist) just to name them. If it wasn't from guys like Peter or even Stalin (even if anti-western he was marxist, that is in fact a «western ideology» Russia wouldn't even be an industrialized country...Communism may be a Western ideology, but it never took hold in the West, only in Russia and the East. In Peter the Great's time, the West was the only place to look at. In Stalin's time, Russia couldn't look to West, and had to form it's own center of technology, industrial & economic development, which Stalin managed very successfully.


Your «third positionning» attitude negates the historicity of Russia's relationship with both the West or the East, in a modern world this position is hardly sustainable...But the fact is this all happened. Throughout it's 1000 year history Russia has always been like this, and no matter what ideology took hold, the fact remained true that it was never completely Western, while at the same time not beloning to East. You can even say that the reason Communism took hold in Russia is because of this fact, whereas in Europe the peoples were always more cramped in, and had less time & resources for grand ideologies. Russia will always be different as long as it remains Russia, and not a collection of different countries in Eastern Europe & Northern Asia.


As for «western values», from what I've seen in Moscow, a lot of people adopted consumerism and do not give a da** about political rights, representation, and the rule of law, as long as they allowed to buy everything is fine. There's nothing to envy in fact to the US...People are just very cynical about these concepts. While 20 years ago it was understood that there was none of it in USSR, now it is understood that there is none of it anywhere. No doubt structures, judical system & rights are much better in the West than in Russia, which is why Russian people in many ways still look up to the West as a model. But as for 'democracy', no-one in Russia is under any illusions.

[Sergei]

I have posed similar questions previously and the answers I have gotten is that Russia doesnt consider China any sort of threat at all. They are China's best friend (well..maybe the French are China's).

This provocative thinking that China is a threat to Russia comes up every time the neo-cons in US are looking for another territory or resource grab.
I remember reading about "bad, evil China and that Russia should get better defences" right before the Iraq occupation.

Even if we are not talking about arms, Russia is just too inhospitable of a land for the Chinese, it is not warm, you can't grow rice here.

US has some 8 million Chinese now, much more than Russia, now there is the time to start thinking.

[Flamming_Python]

I wish I had your confidence with regard to the Islamic issue, but I don't. The central Asian muslims are indeed a different breed from most, but I didn't hear you mention Chechnya anywhere p-).

With regard to the Chinese issue, you mention 20%, but how will you know when that happens? From what I know, that part of Russia has pretty lax border controls etc., with most of the Chinese being illegals anyway.
Would Russia have the political and national will to act?

The disturbances in Chechnya were more due to nationalism than Islamism (with only a handful of Chechen rebel commanders advocating a North Caucasus Emirate), although that nationalism was of course linked to Chechnya's traditional Islamic identity. Unfortunately in that part of the world (Caucasus), nationalism is a tremendous force making the Balkans look like a tea party in comparison. You can notice the same phenomenon among the Ossetians and Armenians, both Christian peoples from the Caucasus.

As for Chinese, well in my mind it will be pretty obvious when you notice walking along the street in lets say Khabarovsk or Vladivostok that half the people in the street are Asian (and if half the Asian population is chinese, that would mean that 25% of the city's population is Chinese).

Of course in practise, the Chinese might live in rural areas, or just form isolated communities in certain parts of town and just not go out on the street much. Which co-incidently, would also mean that they would have very little influence on local politics or society and would therefore not be a great worry.

I think that Chinese immigration to Siberia, so long as it's a drawn out process need not be a worry at all. There are many Koreans on Sakhalin island (descendants of Korean slaves brought by Japs to work there in WW2), perhaps 1/5th - 1/4th of the islands population, but from what I heard they are very patriotic not towards Korea, but towards Russia.

[Bongopete]

This provocative thinking that China is a threat to Russia comes up every time the neo-cons in US are looking for another territory or resource grab.
I remember reading about "bad, evil China and that Russia should get better defences" right before the Iraq occupation.

Even if we are not talking about arms, Russia is just too inhospitable of a land for the Chinese, it is not warm, you can't grow rice here.

US has some 8 million Chinese now, much more than Russia, now there is the time to start thinking.

Chinese and warmth??? Rice??? WTF??? They dont live in the fracking tropics! Too inhospitable??? They are already stripping Siberia of lumber for petes sake!

As I said...Russians are so occupied by the big bad America that they simply ignore whats going on out in their eastern regions or are simply so racsist as the to think asians are incapable of doing anything. Next thing we'll read is that their eyesite is too poor.

[Flamming_Python]

Chinese and warmth??? Rice??? WTF??? They dont live in the fracking tropics! Too inhospitable??? They are already stripping Siberia of lumber for petes sake!

As I said...Russians are so occupied by the big bad America that they simply ignore whats going on out in their eastern regions or are simply so racsist as the to think asians are incapable of doing anything. Next thing we'll read is that their eyesite is too poor.

Man, you nearly made me spit out my coffee rofl

No-one underestimates the Chinese, or Asians in general, at least since the Mongol conquest of Kievan Rus'. Perhaps there will be problems 50 years, 100 years into the future, but right now all the talk about the Chinese is just hysteria (which the Russian, as well as Western press too often subscribes to)

[speedythefreak]

That may be so... but there is very good reason for the philosophy of Russia belonging to neither West nor East, for simple reason that there is no other way that it can be. Russia will simply cease to exist as either a state or an identity if it looses power to the point where it would be beneficial for it's Western, European peoples to join Europe, for it's Southern, Muslim peoples to join the Middle East, and for it's Eastern, Asian peoples to join Greater Asia. Actually those are exactly the forces which are tearing Russia right now, from 3 different directions (Western pull has eased up lately due to new Europhobia, Southern pull is consistent and will continue to be so until a real push for economical development takes place in the South, and Eastern pull is practically non-existent for now, but can potentially take root if xenophobia and poverty increases in society).

So Russia now has a choice. Either collapse into different parts, or pull itself together and form it's own center of power in the world, similar to current American/European and Chinese one, not to mention future Muslim/Middle Eastern, Indian and South American one.

Quite a pessimistic view my friend...Why wouldn't Russia be a part of EU as Germany, France or UK ? You seem hooked up a bit on that Huntingtunian clash of civilizations thing...As I wrote it India, Japan and South Korea are in the club of democracies according to Kagan's nomenclature, the 3 of them are orientals...Japan is seen by many as a «western» country altough it kept its specific culture and its identity. Same for India and South Korea...My point is to show that what you call the «West» is merely a bunch of countries sharing common political systems and a few values, united under military alliances (NATO) and economic alliances (EU, NAFTA), I hardly understand why so many russian people see the «West» as a threat to russian identity. After all greeks are an orthodox people and consider themselves as a part of the «West», the same will be in a few years for Montenegrins, bulgars and romanians that are both slavic in origin and orthodox...

[Laworkerbee]

This provocative thinking that China is a threat to Russia comes up every time the neo-cons in US are looking for another territory or resource grab.

O'Rly

Russian resources illegally being sent to China
http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/showthread.php?t=132066

While Siberia is being raped by illegal Chinese loggers you still want to blame Noe Cons and the United States the United States, you are such a **** sometimes.

[Flamming_Python]

Quite a pessimistic view my friend...Why wouldn't Russia be a part of EU as Germany, France or UK ? You seem hooked up a bit on that Huntingtunian clash of civilizations thing...As I wrote it India, Japan and South Korea are in the club of democracies according to Kagan's nomenclature, the 3 of them are orientals...Japan is seen by many as a «western» country altough it kept its specific culture and its identity. Same for India and South Korea...My point is to show that what you call the «West» is merely a bunch of countries sharing common political systems and a few values, united under military alliances (NATO) and economic alliances (EU, NAFTA), I hardly understand why so many russian people see the «West» as a threat to russian identity. After all greeks are an orthodox people and consider themselves as a part of the «West», the same will be in a few years for Montenegrins, bulgars and romanians that are both slavic in origin and orthodox...

In the short term yes, Russia could be part of the EU. I am thinking more about long-term, where the rising wealth of the Middle East and Asia will draw Russia's Eastern and Southern regions into their orbit, and will have loads of success in doing so because so much of Russia's wealth will be concentrated in Europe, and Russian regions bordering Europe.

As for West. The way I see it is that it's the successor of the Roman Empire, and Russia (as well as orthodox nations), are the successors of the Byzantine empire. The reason why Russia and the West are separate now, is the same reason why the Roman and Byzantine empires separated in the first place (despite being 2 halves of the same master civilization); too much power was concentrated in one center, and in such a situation it is more efficient to have 2 empires competing against each other, although hopefully not fighting.

About Greeks, Bulgars, I don't know, but i'm sure that if you ask them, they will feel just as much of an attraction towards Russia, as towards the West. The West is after all a majority Catholic & Protestant entity, which has historically cared little for Orthodox religion, judging it as more of a threat than a brother. Perhaps many Americans now feel an attraction towards Russia and Orthodox religion, as they are involved in a bitter fight with the Islamic world.

However, I ask you, where was this sentiment 15 years ago when anything even involving Russia, Russian language, Russian culture was simply demonised? When Serbia was being bombed? When Eastern Europe was thought of as a bit of a ****hole in general? Politics is one thing, and very understandable, but when I read for example BBC reports about how nice it is that the evil colonial Russian language was being displaced in Eastern Europe and even the former USSR by English, I felt my heart breaking. And I mean it, I felt very sad :(
It wasn't even so much the fact that the language was being displaced, as much as it was the downright hostile attitude the West had to it.
How many movies were there where all Russians and Eastern Europeans were either criminals or rabid nationalists? Con-Air? Behind Enemy Lines? And as usual of course all of us were incompetent drunks, falling very easily to American bullets.

In the 90's when I fought of America, I thought of the glorious American army smashing Fascist forces hand in hand with our boys. Everyone wanted to forget about the Cold War. But it seems like the Yanks, Brits & Euro's started to let it get to their heads, and started spitting on my language, culture, religion & heritage. And now thankfully it's calmed down again. Those Russians who have an anti-American attitude (who nontheless still have high opinions of American people) now are products of those 90's, but I'm sure that if we develop relations on the basis of respect, and learn to think of Catholisism(the West) and Orthodoxy(Russia) as being 2 halves of the same civilisation, rather than of Russia/Orthodoxy being part of the West/Catholisism, than good relations would return.

However, while Russia is majority Slavonic and majority Orthodox, far from all of it is. I would much rather have a united, secular, multi-ethnic Russia than a Slavic, Orthodox kingdom in Eastern Europe.

P.S. Romanians aren't Slavs :)

[Bongopete]

In the short term yes, Russia could be part of the EU. I am thinking more about long-term, where the rising wealth of the Middle East and Asia will draw Russia's Eastern and Southern regions into their orbit, and will have loads of success in doing so because so much of Russia's wealth will be concentrated in Europe, and Russian regions bordering Europe.

As for West. The way I see it is that it's the successor of the Roman Empire, and Russia (as well as orthodox nations), are the successors of the Byzantine empire. The reason why Russia and the West are separate now, is the same reason why the Roman and Byzantine empires separated in the first place (despite being 2 halves of the same master civilization); too much power was concentrated in one center, and in such a situation it is more efficient to have 2 empires competing against each other, although hopefully not fighting.

About Greeks, Bulgars, I don't know, but i'm sure that if you ask them, they will feel just as much of an attraction towards Russia, as towards the West. The West is after all a majority Catholic & Protestant entity, which has historically cared little for Orthodox religion, judging it as more of a threat than a brother. Perhaps many Americans now feel an attraction towards Russia and Orthodox religion, as they are involved in a bitter fight with the Islamic world.

However, I ask you, where was this sentiment 15 years ago when anything even involving Russia, Russian language, Russian culture was simply demonised? When Serbia was being bombed? When Eastern Europe was thought of as a bit of a ****hole in general? Politics is one thing, and very understandable, but when I read for example BBC reports about how nice it is that the evil colonial Russian language was being displaced in Eastern Europe and even the former USSR by English, I felt my heart breaking. And I mean it, I felt very sad :(
It wasn't even so much the fact that the language was being displaced, as much as it was the downright hostile attitude the West had to it.

In the 90's when I fought of America, I thought of the glorious American army smashing Fascist forces hand in hand with our boys. Everyone wanted to forget about the Cold War. But it seems like the Yanks, Brits & Euro's started to let it get to their heads, and started spitting on my language, culture, religion & heritage. And now thankfully it's calmed down again. Those Russians who have an anti-American attitude (who nontheless still have high opinions of American people) now are products of those 90's, but I'm sure that if we develop relations on the basis of respect, and learn to think of Catholisism(the West) and Orthodoxy(Russia) as being 2 halves of the same civilisation, rather than of Russia/Orthodoxy being part of the West/Catholisism, than good relations would return.

However, while Russia is majority Slavonic and majority Orthodox, far from all of it is. I would much rather have a united, secular, multi-ethnic Russia than a Slavic, Orthodox kingdom in Eastern Europe.

P.S. Romanians aren't Slavs :)

I have to say that the majority of American's do not have any bad feelings about Russia. Probably more so because of the fact that (sad fact) they most young people here have no interest in history. On the other hand thats a good thing as they also really hold no malice toward Russia. Of course there are some who dont like Russia, though that is probably more a hangover from the cold war (my dad fought the Japanese and he never really got to liking them) or other factors (such as anti-Americanism...you know, you dont like me well I dont like you either).

[Kilgor]

This provocative thinking that China is a threat to Russia comes up every time the neo-cons in US are looking for another territory or resource grab.
I remember reading about "bad, evil China and that Russia should get better defences" right before the Iraq occupation.

Even if we are not talking about arms, Russia is just too inhospitable of a land for the Chinese, it is not warm, you can't grow rice here.

US has some 8 million Chinese now, much more than Russia, now there is the time to start thinking.

The Russian Military and Political leadership would disagree with you.

Correct me if I am wrong, there is more Russian military forces in the eastern districts including most of the T90 tank force ?

[NicNZ]

Even if we are not talking about arms, Russia is just too inhospitable of a land for the Chinese, it is not warm, you can't grow rice here.

That is the most misguided comment I've seen on these forums for a long time.

[Xaito]

The Chinese seek global dominance, while the US wants to keep the status quo (which leaves Russia fully in control of its sovereign territory)
ah... the author must have thought its best to end his article with a joke. ;)

[Lee]

How about the long talked about alliance between Germany and Russia. It would include not only an economic alliance but a military one also which would mean if one country was attacked the other would be consider it an attack on them. If that ever happened both countries would need no one else. Germany wouldn't need the western alliance and Russia wouldn't have to make painful choices like being on the side of the democratic west or a paun to China.

[Lee]

This provocative thinking that China is a threat to Russia comes up every time the neo-cons in US are looking for another territory or resource grab.
I remember reading about "bad, evil China and that Russia should get better defences" right before the Iraq occupation.

Even if we are not talking about arms, Russia is just too inhospitable of a land for the Chinese, it is not warm, you can't grow rice here.

US has some 8 million Chinese now, much more than Russia, now there is the time to start thinking.

First of all China considers Russia to be in possesion of an area of land that is as big as Iran that belongs to China. And China is in great need of the land with all its resources. Russia is not too inhospitable a land for the Chinese. The Chinese have been know to make a go of things in almost anyplace. They are great survivalists.

[I can't think of a name]

, Russia is just too inhospitable of a land for the Chinese, it is not warm, you can't grow rice here.



:cantbeli:

There are plenty of cold places in China. Rice is mainly in eastern and southern China. As you go towards the interior wheat is more of a staple crop.

[delio]

How about the long talked about alliance between Germany and Russia. It would include not only an economic alliance but a military one also which would mean if one country was attacked the other would be consider it an attack on them. If that ever happened both countries would need no one else. Germany wouldn't need the western alliance and Russia wouldn't have to make painful choices like being on the side of the democratic west or a paun to China.The combination of US troops leaving Germany, followed by Germany effectively leaving the EU and NATO and than aligning itself with Russia, would probably mean Germany would be as hated in Cental and Eastern Europe as it was during the time of Hitler-Stalin Pact.

Germany not so much 'needs' the western alliance at it actually wants the western alliance. Of the major European countries, Germany has long been the most pro integration - pro-EU - country of all.

In summary: hell could well freeze over before what you just suggested happens.

[Sergei]

Chinese and warmth??? Rice??? WTF??? They dont live in the fracking tropics! Too inhospitable??? They are already stripping Siberia of lumber for petes sake!

As I said...Russians are so occupied by the big bad America that they simply ignore whats going on out in their eastern regions or are simply so racsist as the to think asians are incapable of doing anything. Next thing we'll read is that their eyesite is too poor.

Why ignore?
China knows fully well that if things start to heat up like in Damansky island, there will be a Grad barrage with excavators moving hundreds of dead chinese back into China.
If large invasion is to occur, there will be no China to speak about, that means no supplies, no ammo, no food for the invading forces. The invading army will be stuck in the middle of siberian forests.

[Sergei]

O'Rly

Russian resources illegally being sent to China
http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/showthread.php?t=132066

While Siberia is being raped by illegal Chinese loggers you still want to blame Noe Cons and the United States the United States, you are such a **** sometimes.

While this is a major concern, it can be easily handled by internal authorities without guys across the ocean showing their "concern".

[Sergei]

That is the most misguided comment I've seen on these forums for a long time.

Damn, what's with this all chinesephobia of late? Olympics coming?

[Sergei]

The Russian Military and Political leadership would disagree with you.

Correct me if I am wrong, there is more Russian military forces in the eastern districts including most of the T90 tank force ?

There is a reason for that.
The west is protected by friendly Belarus and almost friendly Ukraine (which might change soon or if USchenko is shown the boot, stays as is). The disposition of forces will change.

[Sergei]

The Chinese seek global dominance, while the US wants to keep the status quo (which leaves Russia fully in control of its sovereign territory).


The Boris guy is working for the Hudson institute for money, and therefore writing what is asked of him.
That sentence almost cracked me up, I don't know what kind of status quo is he thinking for the US, but with latest s h i t in Kosovo and Iraq and Afgan wars, I am yet to see China pulling something similar or at least close in aggressive behaviour to that.
If Russia didn't have Satana and Topol, US would be already busy dividing Siberia into pieces like Iraq is being divided now.
So Mr. Piontkovsky, you have a wonderful article, which is only good for western consumption.