Baltic States the next Ireland, Poland the next Spain

[delio]

Thinking about how píss poor - relative to their current prosperity, those two countries were before the joining the European Union, and looking at how much Poland and the Baltic states have progressed in the last ten years, I couldn't help but see a strong analogy.

A legacy of Ireland's former impoverishment is that today there are about ten times as many ethnic Irish in the United States than there is in all of Ireland. Spain used to be a relatively poor country too. But you wouldn't know much that by looking at them today.

My opinion is that within twenty years time or so, the Baltic states will be near where Ireland is today, and that in that same period of time Poland will be very near where Spain is today, at least in term of economic or living standards. (Than it will be on towards Ukraine, to try the experiment all over again ..but I digress)

Poland is doing so well relative to it's standing before joining the European Union, that a big chunk of the initial exodus is returning home.

So what say you? Lets have a civil discussion on it! ..will the Baltic states' and Poland's particular paths lead them to a such a future?

[wholagun]

HAHAHA I just wrote a final exam on this subject matter for my Post Communist Transformation seminar.

The Czech Republic and Slovenia are already ahead of Portugal and Greece (if im not mistaken) in terms of GDP per capita. While there is no doubt that the countries are making rapid progress, which is over shadowed by the development happening in Asia, I dunno if Poland can become the next Spain. There are too many different structural factors to take into account, which could potentially set the countries off on different paths. Spain was richer joining the EU and they've always been an affulent country throughout history, Poland not so much. And, while Spain was facsist, the country was luckily not left with a legacy of communism which not only changed civil society but the political and economic structure for decades to comes.
Polan is the biggest proponent of an EU/ NATO Eastern policy regarding Ukraine. It has always been in Poland's interest to see Ukraine independent and free of Russian influence. The best way of ensuring that would be to integrate them into the EU and NATO, however Ukrainian domestic politics in which Im not too well versed are not united on the issue of NATO and the EU.
The issue with creating models for both Poland based on Spain, and Ukraine based on Poland is that they appear similar but there are many nuances. As scholrs int he field have pointed out the democratization that took place in Eastern Europe is not similar to that of the 3rd wave that occured in Latin America. For many years they looked to build the same model for Eastern Europe but when the transofmration began to take place in the early 1990s it was totally opposite of what scholars studying the 3rd wave democratization argued for. The call for slow economic and political transformation in comparision was the wrong approach. This was witnessed and contrasted in Central and Eastern Erope where states such as Poland that emarked on an economic reform polic of Shock Therapy with rapid change - had the best result. Those that did slow transofrmation were unstable and did not succesfully consolidate their capitalist transformation and democracy. This is why I hesittate to use Spain as a model for Poland. At first glance they appear similar with roughtly the same size population both Catholic but structurally they derive from different places. For Ukraine Poalnd can be a potential case study but and certainlly lends itself better then that of Spain.

[delio]

I'm not suggesting that they have followed nor I'm proposing that they should emulate the paths of Spain and Ireland. What I'm putting forward is that they will - through their own distinctive paths within the EU - reach a similar destination, in terms of living or economic standards at least.


Ukrainian domestic politics in which Im not too well versed are not united on the issue of NATO and the EUI would like to keep this thread somewhat EU focused . I think we should keep NATO out of it. As for Ukrainian domestic politics, it seems to me both the government in power and the opposition - a well as a good majority of the citizens - are in favor of joining the European Union.
Here's an article suggesting as much, ..



BBC- Ukrainians dream of EU future (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7212672.stm)

In a recent poll, more than 63% of Ukrainians said they were in favour of joining the bloc.

Yes, there were regional variations: westerners were generally more enthusiastic than easterners. But in most regions, a majority thought their lives would improve faster if their country were inside the EU.

[wholagun]

I would like to keep this thread somewhat EU focused . I think we should keep NATO out of it. As for Ukrainian domestic politics, it seems to me both the government in power and the opposition - a well as a good majority of the citizens - are in favor of joining the European Union.
Here's an article suggesting as much, ..

fair enough, but, NATO is seen as the stepping stone for EU membership. No EU state has been accepted without prior joining NATO.

[wholagun]

BBC- Ukrainians dream of EU future (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7212672.stm)

In a recent poll, more than 63% of Ukrainians said they were in favour of joining the bloc.

Yes, there were regional variations: westerners were generally more enthusiastic than easterners. But in most regions, a majority thought their lives would improve faster if their country were inside the EU.

No arguement from me there. I will however say that with economic transitions it gets worse before it gets better. When Poland joined the EU, the EU set out quotas, production limits, and forced the government to stop subsidizing many bloated and inefficient industries. The result was ballooning undemployment of 20%. Only recently has this come down to a more managble level of aprox 10%. Ukrainians must understand that if their lives are to improve, it may get a whole lot worse, at least for some.

[delio]

No EU state has been accepted without prior joining NATO.Not true. To this day, Finland and Sweden aren't even members of NATO, but lets just leave it at that.


No arguement from me there. I will however say that with economic transitions it gets worse before it gets better. When Poland joined the EU, the EU set out quotas, production limits, and forced the government to stop subsidizing many bloated and inefficient industries. The result was ballooning undemployment of 20%. Only recently has this come down to a more managble level of aprox 10%. Ukrainians must understand that if their lives are to improve, it may get a whole lot worse, at least for some.I think that major expansion was rushed, and so that was a big reason for a lot of growing pains that could have been avoided by a more deliberate action plan. The last expansion was also rushed. But I think the EU is going to follow the right approach with Ukraine, which is a gradual drown out process, with previously demarcated drawn out phases. Some of those phases would probably be a free trade agreement some five or ten years from now, a custom union after about ten years, and gradual process toward complete free flow of labor, - starting in earnest within a few years from now and to be concluded some twenty or so years from today. The EU could even decide not to offer Ukraine the major political ends of the integration process until at least twenty to thirty years from now have passed.

[sergentdarmes]

EU needs time to bring new members to a better economic and social status. Roumania and Bulgaria are close to Poland and Baltic states shape when they joined in 2004. For the budget to be balanced EU needs more "giving" states then "receiving" ones.
Every member state has to agree for accepting a new member. Some western members don't see EU working properly with 27 members, so why expand EU again ?

[delio]

When we talk about Ukraine joining the EU, we are talking something that probably won't happen before 2025 or so. The countries with a decent shot at joining before then have very small populations. For example, the largest one of them all is probably Croatia, which has a population of only about four and a half million people.

[Sergei]

HAHAHA I just wrote a final exam on this subject matter for my Post Communist Transformation seminar.

The Czech Republic and Slovenia are already ahead of Portugal and Greece (if im not mistaken) in terms of GDP per capita. While there is no doubt that the countries are making rapid progress, which is over shadowed by the development happening in Asia, I dunno if Poland can become the next Spain. There are too many different structural factors to take into account, which could potentially set the countries off on different paths. Spain was richer joining the EU and they've always been an affulent country throughout history, Poland not so much. And, while Spain was facsist, the country was luckily not left with a legacy of communism which not only changed civil society but the political and economic structure for decades to comes.
Polan is the biggest proponent of an EU/ NATO Eastern policy regarding Ukraine. It has always been in Poland's interest to see Ukraine independent and free of Russian influence. The best way of ensuring that would be to integrate them into the EU and NATO, however Ukrainian domestic politics in which Im not too well versed are not united on the issue of NATO and the EU.
The issue with creating models for both Poland based on Spain, and Ukraine based on Poland is that they appear similar but there are many nuances. As scholrs int he field have pointed out the democratization that took place in Eastern Europe is not similar to that of the 3rd wave that occured in Latin America. For many years they looked to build the same model for Eastern Europe but when the transofmration began to take place in the early 1990s it was totally opposite of what scholars studying the 3rd wave democratization argued for. The call for slow economic and political transformation in comparision was the wrong approach. This was witnessed and contrasted in Central and Eastern Erope where states such as Poland that emarked on an economic reform polic of Shock Therapy with rapid change - had the best result. Those that did slow transofrmation were unstable and did not succesfully consolidate their capitalist transformation and democracy. This is why I hesittate to use Spain as a model for Poland. At first glance they appear similar with roughtly the same size population both Catholic but structurally they derive from different places. For Ukraine Poalnd can be a potential case study but and certainlly lends itself better then that of Spain.

Nothing to learn from Poland.
Poland had more than 100 billion US dollars of debt written off in the middle of 90's (when US dollar was actually worth the paper it is written on) and had large credits given to buy western military equipment - nobody is going to write off Ukrainian debt and nobody is goint to feed another 45 million hungry mouths. Just for your information - Poland was made a "case study" so that other eastern euros would be attracted to that model but there is no such thing as "free lunch".

[wholagun]

Not true. To this day, Finland and Sweden aren't even members of NATO, but lets just leave it at that.



you're right. I was however referring to newest members.

A slow and gradual process may be the answer. Certainly the 2004 and 2007 expansions were rushed, and the EU was able to impose very stringent requirements knowing the new members wanted in despite the costs. For the new members the costs of remaining outside the EU were greater then those stemming from the accession requirements.

The EU added to the problem of growing expansion by virtue of including the new members. The new countries spear headed by Poland are driving the Eastern EU policy which calls for EU extending Ukraine membership, and a general eastward expansion. The former communist states, unlike the older members, have a stake in seeing the EU expanded Eastward and they don't have to pay for it. The obvious reason for expanding the EU east is concerns over Russian influence in the "near abroad or near east" - whatever you wanna call it. Certianly the older members have no such concerns and their geopolitics differes from that of the new members. BUT, I think that as time passes and the new EU members further integrate (the Baltics and several other countries are soon to join the Eurozone) into the EU that the two interests will blend and become less geopolitical.

[wholagun]

Nothing to learn from Poland.
Poland had more than 100 billion US dollars of debt written off in the middle of 90's (when US dollar was actually worth the paper it is written on) and had large credits given to buy western military equipment - nobody is going to write off Ukrainian debt and nobody is goint to feed another 45 million hungry mouths. Just for your information - Poland was made a "case study" so that other eastern euros would be attracted to that model but there is no such thing as "free lunch".

hold on a sec, I was not definitive in stating Poland is the model, I said it could be used as the model, emulated not replicated, at least in parts.


The issue with creating models for both Poland based on Spain, and Ukraine based on Poland is that they appear similar but there are many nuances
For Ukraine Poalnd can be a potential case study but and certainlly lends itself better then that of Spain.
Nothing to learn from Poland.Don't sell yourself short like that. Just b/c there are differences does not mean there is no relevant lessons to learn. Also, using models you must understand that no two experiences are ever the same and that there will be differences, therefore you can expect differences between the model state(s) and the accession state(s).

Ukraine can learn a lot from Poland - nameily in negotiations and policy learning, restructuring, and liberalization of industries. With comparable populations and industries there will be similar (not the same) concerns in Ukraine. You can bet there will be anti EU segments of the population - most likely farmers that will fear the EU but as int eh case of Poland the potential threat was over played - that there is a potential lesson for Ukraine farmers.

An aside, in doing research for one of my essays I learned that Poland is really big on the bilateral relation with Ukraine. I always knew Poland had and interest in Ukraine, and pro West Ukrainians had their interests in relations with Poland but I didn't know it was a major foreign policy issue for Poland.

[delio]

they don't have to pay for it.The beauty of things is that the EU could make sure no member pay for much of it. A good way is by making Ukraines' integration a drawn out deliberate process, coupled with exceptions and long time-lines before Ukraine is allowed to get its hand inside the major EU cookie jars - the major EU grant programs.

[Sergei]

I Ukraine can learn a lot from Poland - nameily in negotiations and policy learning, restructuring, and liberalization of industries. With comparable populations and industries there will be similar (not the same) concerns in Ukraine. You can bet there will be anti EU segments of the population - most likely farmers that will fear the EU but as int eh case of Poland the potential threat was over played - that there is a potential lesson for Ukraine farmers.

Sounds good on paper but in reality - Ukraine has become a classic plutocracy or oligarchy (whatever you like to call it). Some 150 "families" control all the assets of the country and it doesn't look like they want to share this wealth with anyone.
In order to make Ukraine emulate Poland in a way - first you have to break up the country which is a dinosaur of the Stalin era - western Ukraine should be returned to Poland, Bukovina to Romania, eastern Ukraine and Crimea back to Russia.
What is left can be called "Ukraine" and this state, much smaller than the current multicultural beast can very well take the "Polish" model and actually thrive.

[wholagun]

The beauty of things is that the EU could make sure no member pay for much of it. A good way is by making Ukraines' integration a drawn out deliberate process, coupled with exceptions and long time-lines before Ukraine is allowed to get its hand inside the major EU cookie jars - the major EU grant programs.

Do you want to turn Ukraine into the next Turkey? Waiting all these years getting gradual trade benefits benefits here and there. The risk may be Ukrainains get fed up and public opinion sways or loses interest. You can count on the anti EU camp in ukraine to exploit the issue by pointing to the long process as a sign Ukraine isn't wanted, just like the anti EU camp is doing in Turkey. Eventually the fox gives up trying to reach the grapes on the tree, and walks away assuring himself the grapes were sour anyway.

[wholagun]

Sounds good on paper but in reality - Ukraine has become a classic plutocracy or oligarchy (whatever you like to call it). Some 150 "families" control all the assets of the country and it doesn't look like they want to share this wealth with anyone.
In order to make Ukraine emulate Poland in a way - first you have to break up the country which is a dinosaur of the Stalin era - western Ukraine should be returned to Poland, Bukovina to Romania, eastern Ukraine and Crimea back to Russia.
What is left can be called "Ukraine" and this state, much smaller than the current multicultural beast can very well take the "Polish" model and actually thrive.

Yup I agree, and my prof who just so happens to be Ukrainian said the exact same thing as you. Ukraine is different in that respect, and how that will play out in the course of EU accession and integration I have no clue

[delio]

Do you want to turn Ukraine into the next Turkey?Nope. I don't think Turkey has much of a chance of EU membership at all: There's Cyprus, then there's Greece, then there's France, there's the big question of weather Turkey is largely European, there's the issue of Turkey dominating the other EU countries by virtue of its larger population ..the list just keeps on going. ...it's been what, about fifty years?, and you'd still be hard press to find a major sponsor of Turkey within the EU.

Vis-a-vis the level of EU integration, Turkey should at best eventually find itself at about where Norway or Switzerland is at today, which really isn't a bad position, to tell you the truth.


Ukraine's path for membership however, while deliberately long, should be set very clear within about five years time. After that , the prevailing/widespread view within both sides should be that Ukraine would become a member, with only the decision of weather it would take ten to fifteen years, or fifteen to twenty-five years before full Ukrainian membership kicks in left as the major undetermined issue.

[phoebus]

The Czech Republic and Slovenia are already ahead of Portugal and Greece (if im not mistaken) in terms of GDP per capita.

You are mistaken, in the case of Hellas.

[perdurabo]

Sounds good on paper but in reality - Ukraine has become a classic plutocracy or oligarchy (whatever you like to call it). Some 150 "families" control all the assets of the country and it doesn't look like they want to share this wealth with anyone.
In order to make Ukraine emulate Poland in a way - first you have to break up the country which is a dinosaur of the Stalin era - western Ukraine should be returned to Poland, Bukovina to Romania, eastern Ukraine and Crimea back to Russia.
What is left can be called "Ukraine" and this state, much smaller than the current multicultural beast can very well take the "Polish" model and actually thrive.
YES PLEASE! p-)

[lightfire]

The GDP growth may be important, but it is not the main criteria. At least for my country. It's bigger per capita than the GDP of Poland, but then you have to look closer at the internal issues.

Every country sure has problems. But the problems i my country are quite fundamental ones, that GDP does not show. The standart of living is higher than ever before, for sure, but raising prices (they do go up everywhere - fuel, food etc) aren't adequate to the wages, plus the ever high inflation, even the unemployment is ever low.The real estate is expencive as hell as well, prices are inadequate.

Though the economy is booming, there is a deep and deepening fundamental crisis within the society and politics. The discreditation of democracy itself is at high risk, the dissapointment about the government, press and finansial groups, which are tied toogehter into sort of oligarchy groups does not only endangers to have the onslought of the populists, but also to ruin what has been created over the past 18 years. The dissapointment is overwhelming and sometimes reminds the depression.

The other thing - although the Baltic states economy is booming it is also overheating, therefore investments are at threat and within it - the growth of GDP, wealth, competitiveness

[Kitsune]

[...]western Ukraine should be returned to Poland[...]



YES PLEASE! p-)


That could be cute if that can of worms would be opened one day. If Poland would get back what it lost in the east to the Soviets back then - would it consider to give back to the German the territories it gained in the west? Let me guess...no. Rather Poland would prefer to keep the eastern and western territories on the grounds of...of...that it suffered so much in WWII. Right? What about the Poles keeping East Prussia for their suffering (the suffering of their grand and great-grand fathers to be exact) and at least hand back Silesia? The answer would probably be flat "no" again. We keep it all. And what about Danzig?
Perhaps, in the end, we are better off if Ukraine stays as it is and that can remains closed.

[CPL Trevoga]

Sounds good on paper but in reality - Ukraine has become a classic plutocracy or oligarchy (whatever you like to call it). Some 150 "families" control all the assets of the country and it doesn't look like they want to share this wealth with anyone.
In order to make Ukraine emulate Poland in a way - first you have to break up the country which is a dinosaur of the Stalin era - western Ukraine should be returned to Poland, Bukovina to Romania, eastern Ukraine and Crimea back to Russia.
What is left can be called "Ukraine" and this state, much smaller than the current multicultural beast can very well take the "Polish" model and actually thrive.

We should not return **** to anybody. It's not theirs.

Poland is good example how make a country an exporter of nothing, but labor.
Ogurki is the only thing they make other there.

[wholagun]

That could be cute if that can of worms would be opened one day. If Poland would get back what it lost in the east to the Soviets back then - would it consider to give back to the German the territories it gained in the west? Let me guess...no. Rather Poland would prefer to keep the eastern and western territories on the grounds of...of...that it suffered so much in WWII. Right? What about the Poles keeping East Prussia for their suffering (the suffering of their grand and great-grand fathers to be exact) and at least hand back Silesia? The answer would probably be flat "no" again. We keep it all. And what about Danzig?
Perhaps, in the end, we are better off if Ukraine stays as it is and that can remains closed.


Kits do you really want more Eastern territory given everything we know about East Germany?

I also wouldn't mind taking Kaliningrad too, or at least splitting it with Lithuania.:)

[T-Rex]

I hear a lot of talk about what should be returned to whom and at what cost. Mind you, the EU is a fairly new idea with many powerful players hoping to get a big chunk of what is promised. On the one hand you have France and Germany trying to keep a tight lid on the EU membership, and, if you look at things from their perspective you do realize that they have much bigger economies than any of the Eastern European countries just now joining Nato or the EU. Can we compare Poland to Ireland or Spain? Probably not-just think of how teritorial Europeans tend to become about the smallest of changes within or without their counrties. There are linguisitc, economical and cultural differences. Not to say that there are no similarities... Countries progress and regress at different speed. Not one country will ever be static. And think about it, what would it take to spark yet another conflict in Europe? (ie. Napoleon, Hitler, Stalin, Churchill) Looking at things from a strategic point of view, it pays to have neighbours, especially in Europe. In the future Nato will evolve, so will the EU. I propose a flexible and dynamic union that shares its goals and aspirations.

[gobdav]

Thinking about how píss poor - relative to their current prosperity, those two countries were before the joining the European Union, and looking at how much Poland and the Baltic states have progressed in the last ten years, I couldn't help but see a strong analogy.

A legacy of Ireland's former impoverishment is that today there are about ten times as many ethnic Irish in the United States than there is in all of Ireland. Spain used to be a relatively poor country too. But you wouldn't know much that by looking at them today.

My opinion is that within twenty years time or so, the Baltic states will be near where Ireland is today, and that in that same period of time Poland will be very near where Spain is today, at least in term of economic or living standards. (Than it will be on towards Ukraine, to try the experiment all over again ..but I digress)

Poland is doing so well relative to it's standing before joining the European Union, that a big chunk of the initial exodus is returning home.

So what say you? Lets have a civil discussion on it! ..will the Baltic states' and Poland's particular paths lead them to a such a future?

I thought that this was interesting, considering how, once they joined the EU, many Latvians are migrating to Ireland. I have high hopes for the Baltic states in the next 20yrs though.

[Flamming_Python]

Inflation in the Ukraine has already reached 10% in first 3-4 months of the year. 10% inflation was actually the target for the ENTIRE year, not a 1/4 of it. Ukraine was hit badly by the credit crisis, but the main problem is now inflation, not GDP growth which is still expected to be quite high (6-7%).

From what I heard, Kazakhstan's housing market is in absolute free fall. Reason being is that the government uses US credits for it's financial matters, and now that the dollar is falling, so is Kazakhstan. At the end of the day though, I think they'll find a way out; they have a lot of oil.

Russia is doing better, but inflation is also a problem, and it looks to hit 13-15% this year if we are not careful. GDP growth is expected to be somewhere around 7-8%.

As for Baltic States, they are in a bad situation too, perhaps more than anyone. Earlier, before the credit crises, the prognosis for example of Estonia's growth was somewhere around 8-9%, and now:

country 2008 2009
Lithuania: 6,5% 5,5%
Latvia: 3,6% 0,5%
Estonia: 3% 3,7%

Latvia is doing especially bad. Take a look at the car market:

Car market in Baltic States:
in March:
Estonia - 2556 cars (-11,3%)
Latvia - 1885 cars (-32,3%)
Lithuania - 2092 cars (+43,2%)
in 1Q:
Estonia - 7202 cars (-5,9%)
Latvia - 5939 cars (-25,3%)
Lithuania - 6162 cars (+51%)

[lightfire]

Mind you, the EU is a fairly new idea with many powerful players hoping to get a big chunk of what is promised. .

wat.

new idea? Have you missed the last half of the decade? the EU has evolved quite dramatically.


On the one hand you have France and Germany trying to keep a tight lid on the EU membership, and, if you look at things from their perspective you do realize that they have much bigger economies than any of the Eastern European countries just now joining Nato or the EU.

has anyone contradicted that? is that a surprise that the economy of germany is more powerfull than of Poland's? Look at the Ireland's economy in the past and the present.



Can we compare Poland to Ireland or Spain?

Yes the we can, and if you've read the first post, reasons have been explained why. On the other hand, in other posts members including me have pointed out, that it is not so easy to put similarities and expect the same, as with the examples of Spain and Ireland.


There are linguisitc, economical and cultural differences.

In other words, eastern and Central European countries have just poped in out of nowhere suddenlly, from space. third world countries perhaps?
Have you ever concidered "linguisitc, economical and cultural differences" between let's say Portugal and Greece? Italy and Sweeden?


And think about it, what would it take to spark yet another conflict in Europe? (ie. Napoleon, Hitler, Stalin, Churchill)

great examples, but do you see them now?AFAIK Napoleon, Hitler, Stalin (wtf?? EU and Stalin, wtf???), Churchil - they are dead mate. dead.
Any real examples except such problems related with Kosovo precedent?


I propose a flexible and dynamic union that shares its goals and aspirations

and that would be....?

[Sergei]

We should not return **** to anybody. It's not theirs.

Poland is good example how make a country an exporter of nothing, but labor.
Ogurki is the only thing they make other there.

Are you saying the Molotoff-Ribbentrop Pact should stay in effect? I say it is high time to denounce that Pact as evil expansionist politics and return the lands to the parties which were affected by this Pact. This includes Poland, Romania, Baltic countries.

And what do you mean "not theirs"? Have you heard of operation "Wisla" and how many Poles and Ukrainians were actually moved around back and forth. And western ukrainians are getting the Polish passports as we speak - they want to be in Poland and work there. Why not give them a chance?

[wholagun]

double post

[wholagun]

We should not return **** to anybody. It's not theirs.

Poland is good example how make a country an exporter of nothing, but labor.
Ogurki is the only thing they make other there.


next time you comment on something try and take you head out of your own ass.
Do us that want to have a constructive debate and don't post your nonobjective BS that contributes nothing at all and only shows your ignorance

[Mr Gently Benevolent]

I think Polands recent gain in manufacturing mostly from outsourcing may slow down now that the Zloty is strengthening against both the Euro and the Pound, Cobra beer is shifting production to Hartlepool in the UK and savings of £3 million a year are expected.