Afro-European
05-07-2008, 05:47 AM
I've just followed live on CNN the inauguration ceremony of Dmitry “baby face” Medevedev as the new Russian president but Putin and his "Siloviki"(very powerful people that have military or secret services background) are still around.
A short history of the Russian politics
In 1996, Boris Yeltsin(r.i.p.) run on preventing communists to return to power. He won. For the record, the communists fully backed him in 1990 when he was elected as the first Russian president within the USSR. But in 1993, when they threatened to impeach him becoz of his erratic behaviour and ill thoughts plans ,he ordered the ground forces to bomb the democraticly elected parliament. Case closed.
In 2000, Czar Vladimir (Ras)Putin *sarcasm* run on crushing Chechen terrorists and stabilizing the then collapsing Russia.Which he successfully did. He won. But three years later, he abruptly dismissed Alexander Voloshin from his post (chief of the presidential administration) replacing him by...Dmitry Medvedev. For the record, in 1996,Voloshin took the then unknown Putin from St.-Petersburg to Moscow where he managed to get him the post of vice-chief of the presidential administration(under Yeltsin). Case closed.
In 2004, Vladimir Putin run on developing the economy and standing up against the “dominant” West. With the full backing of the oligarchs, he got overwhelmingly re-elected but when Berezovski, Khodorovski and other “skis”started pulling the strings behind the scene, Putin got them(rightfully) jailed and others fled abroad(to this day). For the record, back in December 1999,those same oligarchs persuaded Yeltsin to stand down and hand-over power to the youthful and energetical Putin.
After the Beslan massacre, he seized that opportunity to change the constitution which allowed him to appoint governors (instead of them getting elected),further strengthening his grip on the country.Case closed.
In 2008, Dmitry Medvedev run on “enhancing” human rights, freedom of speech, freedom of press, diversifying the gas-oil based economy, combating the rampant corruption and reducing the oversized and inefficient bureaucracy. He got 71% of the votes.
The pattern here is that Russian presidents tend to take on those that made them “kings” once they feel threatened by them.
But Medvedev will have in front of him the Silovikis ,those ex-KGB and FSB agents that control the armed forces, secret services(SVR, GRU,CGA),security services( FSB, Internal troops, border guards, Omon, etc) and other big businesses.
Then comes Putin himself, who will leave office with enormous political capital and new institutional prerogatives that at the very least will make him the most powerful prime minister the country has ever seen as chairman of the United Russia party.
Through the party, Putin will control both houses of parliament, which can impeach the president and regional governors. He will also be master of Russia's vast bureaucracy and state-controlled companies whose ranks are full of his loyalists.
Given all these facts, my questions are:
-Will Medvedev be able to deliver what he promised during his campaign?
-Will the Siloviki let him implement his plans as he sees them fit(even when they go against their interests)?
-Will he take on them if he feels threatened or have a solid base?
Let's share some thoughts on this.
Medvedev taking the oath in Kremlin
http://www.itar-tass.com/img/news_img_12655318_0001.jpg
A short history of the Russian politics
In 1996, Boris Yeltsin(r.i.p.) run on preventing communists to return to power. He won. For the record, the communists fully backed him in 1990 when he was elected as the first Russian president within the USSR. But in 1993, when they threatened to impeach him becoz of his erratic behaviour and ill thoughts plans ,he ordered the ground forces to bomb the democraticly elected parliament. Case closed.
In 2000, Czar Vladimir (Ras)Putin *sarcasm* run on crushing Chechen terrorists and stabilizing the then collapsing Russia.Which he successfully did. He won. But three years later, he abruptly dismissed Alexander Voloshin from his post (chief of the presidential administration) replacing him by...Dmitry Medvedev. For the record, in 1996,Voloshin took the then unknown Putin from St.-Petersburg to Moscow where he managed to get him the post of vice-chief of the presidential administration(under Yeltsin). Case closed.
In 2004, Vladimir Putin run on developing the economy and standing up against the “dominant” West. With the full backing of the oligarchs, he got overwhelmingly re-elected but when Berezovski, Khodorovski and other “skis”started pulling the strings behind the scene, Putin got them(rightfully) jailed and others fled abroad(to this day). For the record, back in December 1999,those same oligarchs persuaded Yeltsin to stand down and hand-over power to the youthful and energetical Putin.
After the Beslan massacre, he seized that opportunity to change the constitution which allowed him to appoint governors (instead of them getting elected),further strengthening his grip on the country.Case closed.
In 2008, Dmitry Medvedev run on “enhancing” human rights, freedom of speech, freedom of press, diversifying the gas-oil based economy, combating the rampant corruption and reducing the oversized and inefficient bureaucracy. He got 71% of the votes.
The pattern here is that Russian presidents tend to take on those that made them “kings” once they feel threatened by them.
But Medvedev will have in front of him the Silovikis ,those ex-KGB and FSB agents that control the armed forces, secret services(SVR, GRU,CGA),security services( FSB, Internal troops, border guards, Omon, etc) and other big businesses.
Then comes Putin himself, who will leave office with enormous political capital and new institutional prerogatives that at the very least will make him the most powerful prime minister the country has ever seen as chairman of the United Russia party.
Through the party, Putin will control both houses of parliament, which can impeach the president and regional governors. He will also be master of Russia's vast bureaucracy and state-controlled companies whose ranks are full of his loyalists.
Given all these facts, my questions are:
-Will Medvedev be able to deliver what he promised during his campaign?
-Will the Siloviki let him implement his plans as he sees them fit(even when they go against their interests)?
-Will he take on them if he feels threatened or have a solid base?
Let's share some thoughts on this.
Medvedev taking the oath in Kremlin
http://www.itar-tass.com/img/news_img_12655318_0001.jpg