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Rudolph
09-15-2008, 03:35 AM
SA better than Russia - Moody's (http://www.fin24.com/articles/default/display_article.aspx?ArticleId=1518-1786_2392575)
Sep 12 2008 4:08PM

Johannesburg - South Africa's financial markets are considered more robust and its business conditions more favourable than Russia's, according to Moody's Economy.com.


The analysts say that a key reason that South Africa's equities have been hit by a much smaller margin than Russia's is the different makeup of the two countries' markets, especially with regard to their important resource sectors.

"So far this month, the Russian stock market has dropped 20%, while equity prices in South Africa have lost about 6%. While energy companies dominate the Russian market, precious metals are the bread and butter of South African mining. Notably, with oil prices trending downward, the lure of energy companies has faded somewhat.

"Prices of precious metals do, of course, also fluctuate, but to a somewhat lesser extent. This is especially true with regard to gold, which is considered a haven in times of upheaval, such as the global financial system is experiencing now," the analysts said in their weekly commentary on Friday.

"South Africa's mining sector nevertheless remains under pressure. Mining contracted 9% m/m and 13% in annual terms in July. Electricity shortages dampened production in the first half of the year, and maintenance work is behind the poor performance reported in July.

Lower input costs in coming months should ease the pressure, but mining is unlikely to be impressive this year," they added.

"Importantly, South Africa's financial markets are also deemed more robust that those of Russia. A survey of the world's financial markets by the World Economic Forum published earlier this week ranks South Africa 25th out of 52; Russia is 36th. Uncertainty regarding the stability of financial markets ultimately increases risk aversion toward a country and raises the possibility of a sharp outflow of money.

"The business climate in South Africa is also considered somewhat more favourable. Even though domestic business confidence in South Africa hit a seven-year low in the third quarter, outside observers are more optimistic regarding the country's prospects.

The Doing Business 2009 report by the World Bank and International Financial Corporation, also out this week, places South Africa in 32nd place out of 181 countries, just below France and well above Russia at number 120.
"Government interference in Russia, particularly in the important energy sector, is understandably an important deterrent to foreign investors," Moody's Economy.com said.

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I know I'm risking my life posting this... ;) Stupid, misleading title aside, shows you how weird life can be. Size of one's economy for one is no indication of stability or equality. I'm not sure what all this stability is that the article refers to, who the hell overseas thinks that investing billions here is a safe long-term bet? That has yet to be proven. I love this country, but God, we're in trouble, and any brief analysis will prove that.

Alfacentori
09-15-2008, 03:38 AM
Get ready for the Russian Internet Peace Enforcers to arrive Rudolph p-)

But yeah I wouldn't have guessed SA was more economically stable than Russia, mind you Zuma isn't President yet.

Alfa

wilhelm
09-15-2008, 04:39 AM
Zuma is likely to be pro big business. He already has excellent capitalist credentials.p-)

Seriously though, I'm confused at a lot of the doom-merchants. Certainly in the short to medium term, South Africa's prospects are very good economically. The country has experienced 10 years of solid economic growth, most recently at around the 5% level. It just makes it into the top 10% largest economies in the world. It has a varied economic base and is therefore quite robust at weathering economic swings...

Certainly there is much to improve upon, but it has been a solid performer as well...

DS73
09-15-2008, 05:41 AM
SA better than Russia - Moody's (http://www.fin24.com/articles/default/display_article.aspx?ArticleId=1518-1786_2392575)
Sep 12 2008 4:08PM
I know I'm risking my life posting this... ;) Stupid, misleading title aside, shows you how weird life can be. Size of one's economy for one is no indication of stability or equality. I'm not sure what all this stability is that the article refers to, who the hell overseas thinks that investing billions here is a safe long-term bet? That has yet to be proven. I love this country, but God, we're in trouble, and any brief analysis will prove that.
You care about social aspects (many people think that SA is doomed).
This article is about economy. It is not necessary the same.

Rudolph
09-15-2008, 05:47 AM
You care about social aspects (many people think that SA is doomed).
This article is about economy. It is not necessary the same.

But in the long-run they aren't mutually exclusive. South Africa maintained a healthy GDP-growth matching developed nations during the 60's and 70's - despite sanctions and embargos (which turned out to have many benefits, which we are reaping till today, ie. defence, medicine).

But then in the 1980's politics caught up with the government and growth slowed to under 3%, which actually indicates a decrease in real terms. After 1994 billions of dollars came back to South Africa, but with a future president such as Zuma, it can all turn out to be short-term success. Negative ANC politics can indeed negate all the current positive growth and investment.

*Current direct foreign investment stands at about US$ 1 billion/year. Due to a big UK investment in 2005 that year saw a record R40 billion (US$ 5 billion) - by current exchange rates.

*Our biggest stock exchange the JSE, is in terms of capitalization worth (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_stock_exchanges) US$ 940 billion.

*In 2006 (http://www.southafrica.info/business/success/jse-120years.htm) foreigners bought about R73.7 billion (US$ 9.16 billion) worth of shares.

Ordie
09-15-2008, 07:29 AM
Whith exception of Zimbabwe, African countries have seen a positive economic growth rate in the past few years.

Masai
09-15-2008, 07:30 AM
good to hear, this economy needs all the help it can get.

at least the inflation rate has stabelized a bit.

Rudolph
09-15-2008, 07:33 AM
good to hear, this economy needs all the help it can get.

at least the inflation rate has stabelized a bit.

At an alarming 10.5%!

Ordie
09-15-2008, 08:24 AM
At an alarming 10.5%!

It could be worst.
Like Zimbabwe

Rudolph
09-15-2008, 08:45 AM
It could be worst.
Like Zimbabwe

That's true, estimates are that it will end around 8% this year, and then improve quite a bit to normal level of 4-6%.

We are definitely making some money doing business with Russia:

http://users.iafrica.com/j/jr/jrp/sarus.gif

Teymuraz
09-15-2008, 10:36 AM
My friend is working at one of the biggest investment companies here in Russia. He told me that they are transferring parts of their financial programs to SA, but also he told me, that SA economy will blow up in several years, so they are monitoring the situation there. Basically he is saying, that as an emerging market SA will show a steady economic growth for about three years and then it will collapse due to overheating.

Believe it or not, but this is happening to most small(in comparisson of course) markets who are getting flooded with investors. First off they are investing a lot of money, the "soap bubble" grows-then boom and those cunning investors are moving to the next market.

I am not an expert economist, just saying what i was told. Anyways it is good to see some kind of island of stability in a modern world.

sup_tech
09-15-2008, 10:44 AM
China is better then Russia.

Rudolph
09-15-2008, 10:58 AM
My friend is working at one of the biggest investment companies here in Russia. He told me that they are transferring parts of their financial programs to SA, but also he told me, that SA economy will blow up in several years, so they are monitoring the situation there. Basically he is saying, that as an emerging market SA will show a steady economic growth for about three years and then it will collapse due to overheating.

Since when has SA been an "emerging market"? GDP real growth has been +3.1% average since 1996. What significant event will take place in 3 years?


Believe it or not, but this is happening to most small(in comparisson of course) markets who are getting flooded with investors. First off they are investing a lot of money, the "soap bubble" grows-then boom and those cunning investors are moving to the next market.

Obviously the Russian economy is much bigger than South Africa's will ever be, but Russia can run into potentially bigger problems if further aggressions take place, or if significant shifts in energy prices occur. New reserves are being found all the time, for instance. South Africa's growth has been much smaller than that of Russia for instance. And seems sunstainable for the immediate future. - Our biggest concern is not the potential of the country, but our future president.

VPR
09-15-2008, 10:28 PM
China is better then Russia.

"than" not "then"

in the economic sense perhaps, but China is one huge factory, in theory also volatile, if countries start pulling out their production, thats the end of so many jobs there

seathru
09-16-2008, 05:35 PM
^ not really. China has a large consumer base for self support and huge cash reserves to start new projects in case foreign companies leave en mass.

BTW, who really listens to a crediting agency anymore nowadays? The crediting agencies have not much credit left anymore. They contributed more than their share in bringing on the current financial meltdown.

Codazo
09-16-2008, 05:46 PM
GO SA! befor I'm 30 I need to visit SA it's my dream!

Rudolph
09-16-2008, 05:48 PM
^ not really. China has a large consumer base for self support and huge cash reserves to start new projects in case foreign companies leave en mass.

BTW, who really listens to a crediting agency anymore nowadays? The crediting agencies have not much credit left anymore. They contributed more than their share in bringing on the current financial meltdown.

My apologies to the previous poster, we are indeed an emerging market. Guess it has to do with not having a majority middle-class (?). Anyway, China must be #1 of the emerging markets (isn't Russia emerging as well, even at an enormous US$ 2 trillion GDP, the per capita income is less than that of Israel for instance?):

SA still attractive to investors (http://www.fin24.com/articles/default/display_article.aspx?ArticleId=1518-25_2394160)
Sep 16 2008 2:40PM


Johannesburg - Investment managers Stanlib said in a research note on Tuesday that South Africa remains an attractive and stable investment destination due to its strong credit rating relative to its peers.


Recently, most emerging market currencies have come under significant pressure, reflecting an increase in global risk aversion as the global economic slowdown spreads. So far this year the rand is the worst performing emerging market currency," they note.

But the analysts go on to point out that out of 37 emerging market economies that have an international credit rating, only five have a better credit rating than South Africa, namely China, Korea, Malaysia, Poland and Chile.
"Thus we are still an attractive and stable investment destination," conclude the Stanlib researchers. - I-Net Bridge