Is a second Bosnia war likely?

[Killerkai1]

Paddy Ashown and Richard Holbrooke are warnning against the collapse of the Dayton Accords. This is the second time Ashdown in less then a year has warned about this and I'am starting to think that maybe the Bosnian Serbs are thinking of taking the issue 'further' through warfare. Is this feasible?

http://www.b92.net/eng/news/region-article.php?yyyy=2008&mm=10&dd=22&nav_id=54408

[sreto]

Laughable statements by both Ashdown and Holbrooke. Your thinking isnt going to get you far if you think the Bosnian Serbs are thinking of taking anything 'further' through warfare.

[tyovan]

If Republika Srpska wanted to leave, how could the West legally justify trying to stop them after the Kosovo precedent??

[V.I.D.]

B92 (http://www.b92.net/eng/) http://static.b92.net/images/news/item-new-black.gif News (http://www.b92.net/eng/news/) http://static.b92.net/images/news/item-new-black.gif Region (http://www.b92.net/eng/news/region-article.php) http://static.b92.net/images/news/item-new-black.gif Region http://static.b92.net/images/trans.gif Bosnia is dysfunctional, says Dodik 26 October 2008 | 13:01 | Source: Beta, Politika BELGRADE -- Republic of Srpska (RS) PM Milorad Dodik says a unitary and centralized Bosnia-Herzegovina is an idealized option that was the subject of war.

http://www.b92.net/news/pics/2008/10/86678026249046343a708c505736720_MidCol.jpgMilorad Dodik (FoNet)

In an interview for Belgrade's Politika, Dodik said the tensions in the country, where war raged from 1992 until 1995, now come a consequence of "a systemic error, in other words, different concepts of internal arrangements".

"There are many who consider that the time has come for their concept of a unitary and centralized Bosnia-Herzegovina to win, which is nothing but idealizing an option that was at the heart of the war," he said.

Bosnian Muslim politicians, Dodik continued, are trying to achieve their war goal through stories of various reforms and strengthening of Bosnia's European capacity.

He quoted European Parliament official Doris Pack's who said that Bosnia has been "splendidly envisaged, but not functioning", as the best description of the situation in that country.

The RS premier believes that Bosnia is a divided country, and that no common denominator to gather all three peoples in it has been found to date, "while the foreigners who are trying to create something out of Bosnia to suit themselves remain the only constant".

Dodik also dismissed the idea that foreigners sacking local politicians could be a solution to the divisions in the Bosnian society, since, in his words, that problem would have been solved a long time ago, considering that many politicians, mostly Serb, have already been dismissed.

He also told the daily that the solution for Bosnia lies in international community representatives dropping their role of giving orders and arbitrating, and assuming one of advisory nature.

Dodik added that under such conditions, no nation would expect that the foreign factor would favor its political option.

"The domestic elites would have to accept a realistic, completely open dialogue on all the issues that are determining the fate of Bosnia and its three peoples," the RS premier explained.









There's awfully lot of comparisons with the situation in 1990-1991 right before the last war in Bosnia. I personally don't believe there'll be a particular Bosnian conflict in the nearby future, but I do think there will be a greater Balkan war (in 5, 10, or 15 years perhaps) as too many old and "new" countries believe they have certain scores to settle.

[RWR]

Paddy Ashown and Richard Holbrooke are warnning against the collapse of the Dayton Accords. This is the second time Ashdown in less then a year has warned about this and I'am starting to think that maybe the Bosnian Serbs are thinking of taking the issue 'further' through warfare. Is this feasible?

http://www.b92.net/eng/news/region-article.php?yyyy=2008&mm=10&dd=22&nav_id=54408

Highly unlikely.

There is EUFOR presence, armed forces are on state level (OSBIH), Bosniak population is this time armed as much as Serb population and more numerous, Brcko District cut's "RS" in half (Serbs are minority there), Serbia is relatively weak to support such adventures and gambles..etc.
On the other hand anything is posible on Balkan.

[sreto]

Neither, but Bosnia cannot function as it is functioning today, its an artificial creation running on outside life support. The people of Bosnia have to take control, not some foreign politicians who only have the interests of their own countries at heart. Either split up, or live together. Thats what it really comes down to.

[V.I.D.]

Highly unlikely.

There is EUFOR presence, armed forces are on state level (OSBIH), Bosniak population is this time armed as much as Serb population and more numerous, Brcko District cut's "RS" in half (Serbs are minority there), Serbia is relatively weak to support such adventures and gambles..etc.
On the other hand anything is posible on Balkan.

Though I agree about the "highly unlikely" part (mainly because there's no real motivation and critical mass/movement in any major Bosnian ethnic group for something like that at this point), I disagree with:
- EUFOR presence (means an absolute jack**** to fighting Balkan nations; and too little to stop anything major coming its way)
- Armed forces on state level (it was the same in ex-Yugoslavia as well; not to mention that their loyalties lie with individual ethnic group rather than country itself)
- Serbia/Serbs always fought the best when they were at its "weakest point" (1804-1819, Balkan wars, WWI). I would not consider this an argument. In general, all Balkan nations are clearly more irrational/patriotic so the idea of surrendering is not particularly likely, even when seemingly no other option available.

Anything IS possible in Balkans, I concur.

[INAT]

Milorad Dodik recently signed an investment deal with General Electric paving the way for future investment deals in infrastructure, transport, health and energy in the Serbian half of Bosnia. The Serbs have the most to lose through war ,as they did with Jugoslavia On the other hand the Muslims and in Particular Silajdzic (who was Izetbegovic’s foreign minister during the signing of Dayton) has called for the RS to be abolished as they were never happy with Dayton and all that the got. Let me quote From Holbrooke’s book published in 1998 titled To end a war.


“At 11:00 a.m., [EU envoy Carl] Bildt came to my room to ask how we were doing. 'We are deeply concerned,' I said, that even if Milosevic makes more concessions, the Bosnians will simply raise the ante.'
'Do you think Izetbegovic even wants a deal?' Carl asked. It was a question that Warren Christopher had also been asking. 'I'm never quite sure,' I replied. 'Sometimes he seems to want revenge more than peace – but he can't have both.' Chris Hill, normally highly supportive of the Bosnians, exploded in momentary anger and frustration. 'These people are impossible to help,' he said. It was a telling statement from a man who had devoted years of his life to the search for ways to help create a Bosnian state." (302)


As the battle lines froze so did the war mentality because the same people that were in power then are in power now. Without instability in Bosnia imperial viceroys like Ashdown and arrogant, ignorant bullies like Holbrooke would be out of work, so naturally they need to shake things up a bit from time to time. Since Serbs have been designated as the eternal scapegoat for any problems future and past in the Balkans PD,RH and their Balkan vassals are free to warmonger at will. The Bosnian war could have ended before it began and there were many peace plans before Dayton.The Carrington-Cutileiro peace plan, Vance-Owen peace plan, Owen-Stoltenberg and The Contact Group plan. Remember the war in Bosnia came to an end on American terms and with American backing. The peace deal was signed at Dayton AFB as a sign of American power and to cement the American position in the Balkans, This signaled that no matter what Bosnia’s future may hold America will be the sole power broker in the region.






Nani Beccalli-Falco, president and chief executive of GE International (L), shakes hands with Milorad Dodik, prime minister of Bosnia's Serb Republic

[BW2]

If there is to be a war I highly doubt it would come from RS. Its simply too detrimental to their cause of self determination. RS has a well established economy and political structure any conflict would ruin its progress. Its a lot better for RS to "play by the rules" and gain its freedom through a referendum and diplomatic support from other countries then start some beef with the Bosnian Muslims.

[INAT]

If there is to be a war I highly doubt it would come from RS. Its simply too detrimental to their cause of self determination. RS has a well established economy and political structure any conflict would ruin its progress. Its a lot better for RS to "play by the rules" and gain its freedom through a referendum and diplomatic support from other countries then start some beef with the Bosnian Muslims.


Listen until Bosnia's colonial masters vacate the region true peace will be elusive.Forcing three groups of people that fought a bitter war to live together in an artificial Bosnia will keep ethnic tensions bubbling beneath
the surface and prevent stability from taking root.We need time apart if we are ever to reconcile as South Slavs.The chauvinistic and primitive mentality of the Serbs,Croats and Muslims that live in Bosnia can easily
be manipulated from the outside to reignite the flame.The RS was cut in half at Brcko as a fail safe strategy to allow the BiH Federation to have the upper hand if the Serbs should ever decide they have had enough.

[Stefan850]

Only if Bosnians start it. Serbians have no reason to do that. With all the BS that was done with territorial integrity and illegal invasions (illegal because UN didn't approve, so it is illegal invasion nothing more, there is no way around it) RS has everything going in to there favor.

[epictetus]

RS wont do anything without Beograd approval. If RS decides to go solo and Serbia recognizes RS then the Kosovo issue is over. So no RS going solo. As for war, I doubt it. There is nothing to gain on both sides.

[Homer]

If Republika Srpska wanted to leave, how could the West legally justify trying to stop them after the Kosovo precedent??

Hypocrisy and double standards have never stood in the way of Western interests.

[Calanen]

Hypocrisy and double standards have never stood in the way of Western interests.

Or anyone's........

[budgie]

Unfortunately there are stiil strong elements of Balkan societies that hate the crap out of each other and believe they are entitled to their perceived part of the pie. I won't say another Balkan war is inevitable or even likely, but it's not inconceivable.

[gilgoul]

Next time let them go to the finish, and sell the weapons legally this time, no need for pseudo embargo on weapons that only make grey and black market richer.

[INAT]

Milorad Dodik, has offered to buy the entire debt Bosnia owes to the London Club of debtors even though over 65% of that debt has been made by the Bosnian Muslim Federation.
Dodik is offering that the Serb Republic buy the 436 million Bosnian Marks debt (about $238 million) of which $154 million is Bosnian Muslim.
Bosnian Muslim central bank Governor Kemal Kozaric is expected to agree to the offer.

[Gen.Cale]

Listen until Bosnia's colonial masters vacate the region true peace will be elusive.
Serb have Serbia, while Croats have Croatia, so Bosnians have only Bosnia and we wont be going anywhere, do you understand wht I'm saying


If Republika Srpska wanted to leave, how could the West legally justify trying to stop them after the Kosovo precedent??
Hypocrisy and double standards have never stood in the way of Western interests.

Bosnia does no have anything to do with Kosovo, Kosovo is Serbia's problem not Bosnias, and RS is Bosnias problem not Serbias.

[dimasorokine]

I'm in Belgrade right now and tried to talk to a cab driver about this topic, all I got was ranting lol...its to be expected but I won't make the same mistake twice :) I'll just enjoy this country before it's ruined by intering the EU.

-Dima

[BHM]

Milorad Dodik, has offered to buy the entire debt Bosnia owes to the London Club of debtors even though over 65% of that debt has been made by the Bosnian Muslim Federation.
Dodik is offering that the Serb Republic buy the 436 million Bosnian Marks debt (about $238 million) of which $154 million is Bosnian Muslim.
Bosnian Muslim central bank Governor Kemal Kozaric is expected to agree to the offer.

Bosnian muslim federation? What`s that?
Where did you got these numbers? Hahahahhahah
Dodik will buy the debt hahahahahaha (from his own pocket maybe?hahahha), same man who spent 200 milions for goverment buliding worth 20 milions....He is just a bloody thief and nothing more, a bad copy of Milosevic.

About war, don`t wory it`s just a talk, and nothing more, Bosnia survived 92 and agression supported with full might of Yugoslav federal army, Bosnia will survive duke form Laktasi as well......

[Lokos]

Bosnia survived 92 and agression supported with full might of Yugoslav federal army

I see memories in the Balkans are as good as ever. Bravo.

L.

[V.I.D.]

I see memories in the Balkans are as good as ever. Bravo.

L.

The power of mythology is not to be underestimated ("full might of Yugoslav army"). :)

[Stefan850]

About war, don`t wory it`s just a talk, and nothing more, Bosnia survived 92 and agression supported with full might of Yugoslav federal army, Bosnia will survive duke form Laktasi as well......

Yup, and Albanian terrorist organization KLA kicked Serb army from Kosovo.

The funny thing is you guys repeat all that childish lies without any self esteem, some are actually starting to believe it.

[Hyde]

Why do some still keep provoking, let the serbs have their republika srpska as it is their free will, you can not force something onto people, that will make things only worse. Let them keep it until they eventually (trough negotiations to make things acceptable for both sides) say that they want to give up seperation and try to work together. Until then, just leave them alone.

[Nansouty]

Highly unlikely.

There is EUFOR presence, armed forces are on state level (OSBIH), Bosniak population is this time armed as much as Serb population and more numerous, Brcko District cut's "RS" in half (Serbs are minority there), Serbia is relatively weak to support such adventures and gambles..etc.
On the other hand anything is posible on Balkan.


I would not rely too much on EUFOR, the situation is not the same as 1992, and we'd have no consensus among the population on a hot engagement here now. Which leaves Bosnian forces. Any local source info on their current roster please?