Russia: Rising Ambitions, Sinking Population

[Ordie]

Rising Ambitions, Sinking Population



By NICHOLAS EBERSTADT
Published: October 25, 2008
Washington

RUSSIA is a rising power today, and will be doing a lot more rising in the decades ahead. At least this is what we hear nowadays from pundits, Western intelligence services, presidential candidates and, of course, Russian officials themselves. The Kremlin’s own supreme confidence in this vision of the Russian future was captured nicely by its announcement last year that it expects to be the world’s fifth largest economy in 2020, along with China, India, Japan and the United States. Despite the current global economic crisis, Russian officials are still predicting continuing rapid growth for their nation; Prime Minister Vladimir Putin is even talking of a robust 5.5 percent growth rate for Russia for the coming year.


To international audiences transfixed by Moscow’s military swaggering in Georgia or dazzled by the newfound oil wealth of the Russian petro-state and its billionaires, this notion of an unstoppable Russian ascent may seem plausible, even compelling. To anyone who pays attention to population trends, however, it is absurd.
Russia is in the midst of a genuine demographic disaster from which its rulers have no obvious exit strategy. Although the Russia’s fortunes (and the Kremlin’s ambitions) have waxed on a decade of windfall profits from oil and gas, the human foundations of the Russian nation — the ultimate sources of the country’s wealth and power — are in increasingly parlous straits.
Despite net immigration since the end of Communism, the Russian Federation’s population is nearly seven million people smaller today than at the start of 1992. In the post-Soviet era, Russia has seen three deaths for every two births. Despite a “baby bonus” scheme unveiled by the Kremlin two years ago and a small rise in the birth rate, deaths outnumbered births in Russia by over 250,000 in the first half of 2008.
Russia’s health situation today is a disaster — substantially worse than during the Mikhail Gorbachev years or even the Leonid Brezhnev era. In 2006, overall life expectancy in Russia, at fewer than 67 years, was actually lower than it had been at the end of the 1950s, nearly half a century earlier. For a literate, urbanized society during peacetime, such a monumental public health failure is an extraordinary historical anomaly. Russian life expectancy nowadays is about the same as India’s, and life expectancy for Russian men, today barely over 60 years, is lower than for their counterparts in Pakistan.
Russia’s great leap backwards in health is most severe for the country’s working-age population. From 1965 to 2005, the death rate (that is, the number dying per 1,000 of population) for Russian men between the ages of 15 and 64 jumped by an average of more than 50 percent. Perhaps even more shocking, rates for working-age women in Russia rose by more than 30 percent during those same years.
Meanwhile, of course, workers in the rest of Europe (and for that matter in virtually all the rest of the modern world) were becoming progressively healthier and more robust. Nowadays, according to the independent Human Mortality Database, a man from the Netherlands does not face the same risk of death as a 30-year-old man in Russia until that Dutchman is almost 60.
In and of themselves, these crippling health trends augur ill for Russia’s productivity prospects or economic outlook: it is unrealistic to expect Irish standards of living or rates of economic growth from a population facing Indian mortality schedules. But the economic implications of these trends may be even worse than they appear at first glance. Under current patterns, a 20-year-old man in Russia today stands less than even odds of making it to a notional retirement at age 65. (By contrast, five out of six similar American men can expect to reach their 65th birthday, and the chances are even better in Japan and most of Western Europe.)
With such a brutally high burden of premature mortality and such a radical foreshortening of working life, the cost-benefit calculus for higher education or additional training tilts against investments in knowledge and skills for the work force. Yet in the modern world economy, investments in “human capital” are one of the main engines for stimulating sustained economic growth and eliciting the general spread of national prosperity.
Because Russia’s health crisis looks so utterly abnormal for an industrialized society, one might assume the problem could be quickly remedied through the usual methods: better living standards and more sensible medical policies from the Kremlin. But resolving the Russian health crisis will not be that easy. Russia’s per capita income level has already risen by about 80 percent over the past decade (thanks largely to the oil and gas boom), yet this has hardly budged high mortality rates. The trouble is that in the pathological tangle that frames health conditions in modern Russia, the abnormal has become the new norm.
Russia’s great killers today are not infectious diseases that might be cured with a pill or prevented through an injection. Instead, they are chronic and non-communicable afflictions. According to the World Health Organization, Russia’s death rates from cardiovascular diseases (mainly heart attacks and strokes) are roughly four times as high as in the European Union. Mortality from “external causes” (homicide, suicide, injury) is more than five times as high.
Even a highly effective medical policy cannot hope to control those sorts of epidemics swiftly. After all, heart disease reflects a lifetime’s accumulation of insults on the victim’s system. And those appalling human losses through injury stem from behavioral habits, including the country’s long and deadly romance with the vodka bottle.
Given the “negative momentum” in Russian health trends today, gains over the coming generation may be grudging at best. Simply re-attaining their parents’ survival prospects would count as a significant health advance for today’s middle-aged Russians. But if Russian men “succeeded” in that quest, their life expectancy would still be barely 62 years — lower than the current estimated level in impoverished Bangladesh.
If projections by the United Nations Population Division come to pass, Russia’s population will fall by 10 million more from now to 2020. Those same projections envision Russian life expectancy lagging ever further behind global averages by 2020 to 2025, in this view, overall life expectancy in Russia would actually be a year lower than average for the world’s less-developed countries — with the men’s expectancy nearly five years below the third world mean.
Demography may not be destiny, of course. But this is not a portrait of a successfully and rapidly developing economy — much less an emerging economic superpower.

Source:http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/25/opinion/25eberstadt.html?_r=1&th=&oref=slogin&emc=th&pagewanted=all

[sepheronx]

The world changes, so can Russia. If Russia's economy continues to move at the rate it is going at, it will be an economic monster and the best they can hope for is an increase in immigration.

Europe itself is falling in terms of population. The Death rate is higher then the birth rate and that means less and less people. Same with the Western World.

Russia is not alone. It is just western media that portrays them to be alone.

[Karry]

Europe itself is falling in terms of population. The Death rate is higher then the birth rate and that means less and less people. Same with the Western World.
Oh, and dont forget that in USA the population gets bigger mostly due to a certain chunk of blacks and hispanics, whos only job is to raise multiple children on childcare. In a 3-4 decades USA will most likely be "de facto" divided in several nation-states, where educated people will be a minority, and english speech wont even be heard on the streets.


Russia is not alone. It is just western media that portrays them to be alone.
Sure thing, its the same old "colossus with the feet of clay" meme, when will our neighbours ever change their outdated impressions...

[zg18]

The world changes, so can Russia. If Russia's economy continues to move at the rate it is going at, it will be an economic monster and the best they can hope for is an increase in immigration.

That's how the Western world would try to solve problem ,but Russians seems to be dedicated to improve their birth rates ,population shrink in 2005 was -700.000 while in 2007 was -200.000 ,can somebody show me a Western country with such results in demographics for 2 year period? There are many reasons why population shrinked rapidly after collapse of U.S.S.R and and again there are many reasons why will population grow in short while , i feel very sorry for Western media because they will not jer* off anymore on Russian demographics.

[Laworkerbee]

If Russia's economy continues to move at the rate it is going at, it will be an economic monster and the best they can hope for is an increase in immigration.

Please, Russia an economic monster? Exporting oil will not get you to monster status. The world only needs so many MiGs, T-Series tanks and Leggy blonds, so how is Russia going to climb to the top of the ladder?

[Breakfast in Vegas]

The world changes, so can Russia. If Russia's economy continues to move at the rate it is going at, it will be an economic monster and the best they can hope for is an increase in immigration.
Russia is going to get hit hard if the "crisis" continues. Very hard. No more economic powerhouse.

[Wojtop]

Russia is going to get hit hard if the "crisis" continues. Very hard. No more economic powerhouse.

Right, 60% of Russian GDP is oil-based - and oil is at 60$ now. If it stays like that Russia will be OK and growing at reasonable rate. If it gets below 30$ (which I doubt unless crisis gets VERY serious) than Putin will get a permanent headache.

I guess dreams of rising economic superpower earlier this year were based on price of 120$/barrell.

[Ordie]

That's how the Western world would try to solve problem ,but Russians seems to be dedicated to improve their birth rates ,population shrink in 2005 was -700.000 while in 2007 was -200.000 ,can somebody show me a Western country with such results in demographics for 2 year period? There are many reasons why population shrinked rapidly after collapse of U.S.S.R and and again there are many reasons why will population grow in short while , i feel very sorry for Western media because they will not jer* off anymore on Russian demographics.

Improving birthrate is okay, but it will only pay dividends in about 20 years. Similar birthrate increase strategies have had mixed results in France and Singapore.

Immigration is one means to meet market demands. Moreover, children of immigrants naturally become acculturated and assimilated Russians over time.

[TheArmenian]

Right, 60% of Russian GDP is oil-based - and oil is at 60$ now. If it stays like that Russia will be OK and growing at reasonable rate. If it gets below 30$ (which I doubt unless crisis gets VERY serious) than Putin will get a permanent headache.

I guess dreams of rising economic superpower earlier this year were based on price of 120$/barrell.

Where did you get that percentage from? I think you are mistaking Russia with Saudi Arabia. AFAIK, oil revenues make about 5% of Russia's GDP while gas makes another 5% or so.
BTW, high oil prices are also bad news for Russia: Industry, shipping and consumers suffer just as anybody else in the world.

Russians have indicated in the past that the ideal price of oil for their country is around $65 - 85 per barrel.

[tea drinker]

If it was more attractive to westerners it could have an influx of foreigners.
In order to be more attractive it would need a bit of a makeover... which it is getting slowly. Russian culture, although varied and quite connected with the rest of Europe, is not celebrated in the west, apart from a few composers maybe.
Western, material culture seems to be taking a good hold there, and even this makes it more attractive to others who like material things - including all those Russkies who would otherwise have emigrated.

The biggest problems for Russia to overcome are political, the economics of oil or weapons export are good enough to fuel a rejuvination in their society.
A shift in production to Russia, like car plants for domestic consumption will make it more attractive for people to stay, and a stable work environment will help them raise families. I don't know how good the education system is, but as long as they can educate kids for design and manufacture of emerging green/recylable manufacuring methods computer tech, aerospace etc it's all good.

If the politicians are tough enough, and flexible enough the russian powerhouse could be a reality

[Alfacentori]

I've got hopes for Russia, they can and should stabilise and rapidly improve. If the government makes some good long term investments in health, education and infrasturcture we will see and end to the bad old days. As for declining population, well the population of the entire western world is declining, not as dramatically as Russia of course but Russia is unique in its size and challenges.
Population growth has traditionally been seen as a sign of strength and pride etc for states but in this age of wking families, careers and wanting raised living standards etc the days of 3 plus children families seems mostly over.
I don't know if this a bad thing, but population growth certainly hasn't done the '3rd' world any favours, it has to level out eventually, you can't increase your population indefinetly.

Alfa

[Breakfast in Vegas]

Right, 60% of Russian GDP is oil-based - and oil is at 60$ now. If it stays like that Russia will be OK and growing at reasonable rate. If it gets below 30$ (which I doubt unless crisis gets VERY serious) than Putin will get a permanent headache.

I guess dreams of rising economic superpower earlier this year were based on price of 120$/barrell.Based on $140/barrel.

There are already many construction projects in Moscow City on hold, many companies that already cannot pay for goods purchased on credit.

Russians planned for a crisis and have a substantial stabilization fund. Moreover they have a genuinely intelligent federal government at the top level. Both Putin and Medvedev are very competent.

What they also have are leagues of INcompetent and corrupt minor and major politicians and civil servants. Moroever, the general populace, despite their inherent pessimism, was drawn into the "everything will be great" euphoria of the oil boom Putin years. Nearly everybody took out loans for homes, cars, holidays, etc.

If the crisis hits hard and oil stays below $80-90 for longer than 2-3 months, the Russian economy is going to start sucking wind big time. Unemployment, loan defaults, panic.

I hope it doesn't happen, as it will hit me hard too.

[Breakfast in Vegas]

Where did you get that percentage from? I think you are mistaking Russia with Saudi Arabia. AFAIK, oil revenues make about 5% of Russia's GDP while gas makes another 5% or so.
BTW, high oil prices are also bad news for Russia: Industry, shipping and consumers suffer just as anybody else in the world.

Russians have indicated in the past that the ideal price of oil for their country is around $65 - 85 per barrel.You're so very wrong about Russia needing affordable oil. Expensive oil is good for Russia. What hurts them as well however is the increasing price of international credit. It is killing a lot of their economic development. They are just as affected as everybody else, and in some ways more. Their economy is more fragile than the boom years would let people believe.

[MZKT]

If it was more attractive to westerners it could have an influx of foreigners.
In order to be more attractive it would need a bit of a makeover... which it is getting slowly. Russian culture, although varied and quite connected with the rest of Europe, is not celebrated in the west, apart from a few composers maybe.
Western, material culture seems to be taking a good hold there, and even this makes it more attractive to others who like material things - including all those Russkies who would otherwise have emigrated.

The biggest problems for Russia to overcome are political, the economics of oil or weapons export are good enough to fuel a rejuvination in their society.
A shift in production to Russia, like car plants for domestic consumption will make it more attractive for people to stay, and a stable work environment will help them raise families. I don't know how good the education system is, but as long as they can educate kids for design and manufacture of emerging green/recylable manufacuring methods computer tech, aerospace etc it's all good.

If the politicians are tough enough, and flexible enough the russian powerhouse could be a reality

Indeed, the biggest russian problem is that both economy elite and pliticians concentrate too much on export of unprocessed raw materials, while the country really need a revival of the machinebuilding and electronics industry deliberately destryoed by Jelzins "democratic reforms" during the 90s. Otherwise it heads in the direction of Saudi-Arabia, a state with few rich and millions poor, completely dependent on imports in any tech.
The education system, especially physics and engineering science is actually quite good but also significantly declined in the last decades. The salary of a professor is sometimes lower then of a secretary.

[GazB]

Russia needs less universities and more what we call here Polytechnics. A Polytechnic is a practical version of a university with less theory and more practical goals.
They need a large number of skilled factory workers, rather than a large number of well paid managers.

All of their problems can't be solved overnight, but being a "world powerhouse" shouldn't be their goal. Extending the average lifespan of the population, improving the quality of life, and raising the living standard of the average Russian should be the goal. Japan had an amazing economy and is still quite impressive, but look at the suicide rate!. You have to ask yourself if being a wealthy country is worth the stress?

[Havoc345]

Oh, and dont forget that in USA the population gets bigger mostly due to a certain chunk of blacks and hispanics, whos only job is to raise multiple children on childcare. In a 3-4 decades USA will most likely be "de facto" divided in several nation-states, where educated people will be a minority, and english speech wont even be heard on the streets.


You have obviously never been to the U.S. because that is one of the most ignorant and prejudiced statements I've ever heard on this board before. Blacks and Hispanics fight in our nations wars, assimilate in to our culture and contribute just as much to our country as any white American.

[Xaito]

Japan had an amazing economy and is still quite impressive, but look at the suicide rate!

suicides were always common in Japan.

[CPL Trevoga]

If I was Chinese let's say and I was reading western press I would get very confused by very extreme presentation of propaganda regarding Russia. It's either a deadly threat to it's bordering "dermocratic" regimes or a weak declining state, with failed economy and dying population. Comrades in nato propoganda departement need to get their sh*t together.

[NicNZ]

In my view, Russia's problems aren't so much about demographics as they are about the unpredictable business environment (principally caused by erratic government intervention) that is hampering and will continue to hamper commercial investment and development, and the huge amounts of Russian money that wealthy Russians are moving out of Russia because of the way the government conducts itself.

Rants about demographics, like this article, just ignore the real issues affecting the future development and stability of Russia and its economy.

[MichaelF]

The massive morbidity in the Russian population is chiefly their WWII/postWar generation dying off. Eliminate those categories and the demographic trends are a lot friendlier.

You'll see the exact same thing in Western Europe and the US in the next decade, as the massive Boomer Generation (by definition, a large part of the populations, due to the massive postwar Birth surge) begins dying off.

It's not a crash in the population, it's a natural adjustment, as the postWar Boom artificially inflated the various populations. All such populations are in for a period of extreme morbidity as their numbers correct downward to reflect the average population trends (iow, to more accurately relfect TFR, not morbidity) Russia simply hit the "Boomers Die Now" zone a few years earlier than most.

[ren0312]

Please, Russia an economic monster? Exporting oil will not get you to monster status. The world only needs so many MiGs, T-Series tanks and Leggy blonds, so how is Russia going to climb to the top of the ladder?

Siberia has vast amounts of practically every mineral the world needs except oil, you name they got it,.

[ren0312]

Improving birthrate is okay, but it will only pay dividends in about 20 years. Similar birthrate increase strategies have had mixed results in France and Singapore.

Immigration is one means to meet market demands. Moreover, children of immigrants naturally become acculturated and assimilated Russians over time.

I think Russia is looking at what happened to the Austro Hungarian empire.

[Marshall_Nord]

You have obviously never been to the U.S. because that is one of the most ignorant and prejudiced statements I've ever heard on this board before. Blacks and Hispanics fight in our nations wars, assimilate in to our culture and contribute just as much to our country as any white American.

I live in the U.S.

[Wojtop]

Where did you get that percentage from? I think you are mistaking Russia with Saudi Arabia. AFAIK, oil revenues make about 5% of Russia's GDP

I took 60% estimate from World Bank report for 2006/2007. Reliable enough for me.

With all respect to retired Russians high mortality among older people may be good in a way for Russian economy - they won't have to deal with pensions - one of budgetary worries of EU.

One can't compare mortality in Russia and Bangladesh and draw conclusions regarding level of live. In Russia people need much more to simply survive - means of transport because of distances, good house with heating and good clothes cause weather can kill you easily etc. I guess in these conditions poverty cause immediate rise of mortality.

[rusak]

Source:http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/25/opinion/25eberstadt.html?_r=1&th=&oref=slogin&emc=th&pagewanted=all
Article is politically motivated garbage. Just look at the source - American Enterprise Institute - neocon claptrap. Its intent is not to objectively inform.


Despite a “baby bonus” scheme unveiled by the Kremlin two years ago and a small rise in the birth rate, deaths outnumbered births in Russia by over 250,000 in the first half of 2008.Deaths outnumbered births by about 280500 in the first eight months of the year, down from about 356700 in the first 8 months of 2007.

The current (for the first eight months of 2008) available data:

http://www.gks.ru/bgd/free/b08_00/IssWWW.exe/Stg/d09/8-0.htm

If 2008 turns out more or less like 2007 in terms of tendencies, then from this point, based on these numbers, depending on how one chooses to calculate it, net natural population loss in 2008 will be from about 370000 to about 420000, down from about 470000 in 2007. It's hard to predict the figures for the year though. The thing is that the monthly total deaths had been steadily declining basically every month year-on-year for several years. Then in 2008, it became fuzzy and it's now unclear how the final figures for the year will look. In the first 8 months there had been a very slight increase in total deaths (about 1500). However, if the last 4 months of 2008 are like August, there would be a substantial net decrease. So again, it's hard to predict at this point. Overall though, I think the death rate will continue to decline as it has for the past several years, maybe will some breaks along the way, but I don't see any practical reason why it should go up substantially and not continue to decrease.


Even a highly effective medical policy cannot hope to control those sorts of epidemics swiftly. After all, heart disease reflects a lifetime’s accumulation of insults on the victim’s system. And those appalling human losses through injury stem from behavioral habits, including the country’s long and deadly romance with the vodka bottle.The death rate increased dramatically and quickly in the early 90s. If this was mainly the result of some "accumulated problems" then where were these problems before? These problems had been there before, so why did it only happen then? I think it had more to do with the fact that spending on social services plummeted, as did national morale. Though I do think that generally it is easier to break something than to fix it, the situation has been improving and I think it will continue to improve.

[Holycrusader]

Where did you get that percentage from?

From polish media. Propably. So pls do not blame him :)

We have a lot "experts" here... ie. P. Felgenhauer is well respected in our newspapers.

[Kilgor]

Article is politically motivated garbage. Just look at the source - American Enterprise Institute - neocon claptrap. Its intent is not to objectively inform.



Yes, as we all know anything in New York Times is the Hard Right Neocon mouthpiece.

:roll:

[zg18]

I took 60% estimate from World Bank report for 2006/2007. Reliable enough for me.

You're probably mistaken Russian GDP for Russain exports ,while indeed 60% percent of Russian exports are oil & gas and other raw materials ,oil industry accounts for about 4.5% of Russia's GDP.

[tea drinker]

..... Japan had an amazing economy and is still quite impressive, but look at the suicide rate!. You have to ask yourself if being a wealthy country is worth the stress?
off topic warning:
You know that some Japanese companies arrange these suicides?
They pick a person who they feel may not handle the stress of failure, take out about 7 or so insurance policies with different companies, and start loading him with stress. They get it so the guy has to work 20 hours a day and either dies from stress/overwork or tops himself. They use that whole honour thing in Japanese society.
They collect the policies when the guy dies.

[Xaito]

off topic warning:
You know that some Japanese companies arrange these suicides?
They pick a person who they feel may not handle the stress of failure, take out about 7 or so insurance policies with different companies, and start loading him with stress. They get it so the guy has to work 20 hours a day and either dies from stress/overwork or tops himself. They use that whole honour thing in Japanese society.
They collect the policies when the guy dies.

I think there are also more teenagers who kill themselves then in other countries - not just workers.

[XShipRider]

Oh, and dont forget that in USA the population gets bigger mostly due to a certain chunk of blacks and hispanics, whos only job is to raise multiple children on childcare. In a 3-4 decades USA will most likely be "de facto" divided in several nation-states, where educated people will be a minority, and english speech wont even be heard on the streets.

Your evident prejudices aside, please define "educated people." If you refer to degree holders, they already are minority and will remain so well into the foreseeable future. The rise in undergrad' degree holders over the last few decades is significant, true. Quite frankly, the vast majority of opportunities in a service economy do not require a degree. To quote Judge Elihu Smails of Caddyshack, "The world needs ditch diggers too."

http://www.census.gov/Press-Release/www/releases/archives/aging_population/006544.html

[Havoc345]

I live in the U.S.

Terrific

123

[GazB]

suicides were always common in Japan.

Possibly a cultural thing too, with suicide being considered honourable in some situations I suppose.


In my view, Russia's problems aren't so much about demographics as they are about the unpredictable business environment (principally caused by erratic government intervention) that is hampering and will continue to hamper commercial investment and development, and the huge amounts of Russian money that wealthy Russians are moving out of Russia because of the way the government conducts itself.

That is funny, because in a recent dispute with a western company (BP) the problem wasn't Russian government interference, but the lack of it. The Russian courts made a decision that BP weren't happy with but the Russian government didn't interfere. Something about the BP person on the board of the joint venture only caring about BP and nothing else, so the shareholders got rid of him.

[StalinOrgel]

Please, Russia an economic monster? Exporting oil will not get you to monster status. The world only needs so many MiGs, T-Series tanks and Leggy blonds, so how is Russia going to climb to the top of the ladder?

Actually the share of manufacturing industry products in export has been constantly growing in last 8 years.
Although statics show that during period 2000 - 2007 share of oil, natural gas and petroleum products in russian export has risen about 11% (from 53.8 % to 64,7%) we should note that at the same time the average oil, natural gas and petroleum products price has grown ~170%.
Since 2000 the chemical and forest/papermaking industry products export has increased about 3 times, machinery and metalurgy - 2 times.

[Karry]

Blacks and Hispanics fight in our nations wars, assimilate in to our culture and contribute just as much to our country as any white American.
Is that so ? Ever happen to hear the word "barrio", hmm ? Pray tell, how good a measure of assimilation China Towns are ? Little Italys ? Brighton ?
Is it not a fact, that in such districts government employs mostly social workers fluent in local languages ?


Your evident prejudices aside, please define "educated people."
Ah, "prejudices"...those dear USians, always so eager to play "racism & PC" card, hehe. Anyway, its certainly somewhat tricky to pinpoint the exact meaning of an "educated person" term...its much easier in Japan for example, you're considered educated if you commit to memory 2500+ kanji. :)
Lets say that an educated person is someone who is able to obtain general knowledge, critically process it, and effectively communicate it to someone else. I mean, did you hear the crowds at Republican candidates speeches ? How they believe (sic!) that Obama hates white people, how everyone will instantly lose their jobs, etc. WTH is that ?! At the very least those people should know how their own country's inner workings ! Not to mention just generally having a common sense and an adequate look on the world outside.

[TheOpposition]

If russia's life depends on Immigration then they are officialy screwed...One of the MOST known nations for hateing Immigrants on this planet.. before you pop out and sasy oh no thats not true. I can post polls, personal interviews, ect.

Now on the topic of oil..People get real if we can create micro-processors why on earth do you think the search for another energy source wont be sucessful?

[especial]

Please, Russia an economic monster? Exporting oil will not get you to monster status. The world only needs so many MiGs, T-Series tanks and Leggy blonds, so how is Russia going to climb to the top of the ladder?
Rather than leggy blonds, they will start with leggy brunettes and then black haired women. Thats the plan.

[SoCalEMT]

Is that so ? Ever happen to hear the word "barrio", hmm ? Pray tell, how good a measure of assimilation China Towns are ? Little Italys ? Brighton ?
Is it not a fact, that in such districts government employs mostly social workers fluent in local languages ?


Ah, "prejudices"...those dear USians, always so eager to play "racism & PC" card, hehe. Anyway, its certainly somewhat tricky to pinpoint the exact meaning of an "educated person" term...its much easier in Japan for example, you're considered educated if you commit to memory 2500+ kanji. :)
Lets say that an educated person is someone who is able to obtain general knowledge, critically process it, and effectively communicate it to someone else. I mean, did you hear the crowds at Republican candidates speeches ? How they believe (sic!) that Obama hates white people, how everyone will instantly lose their jobs, etc. WTH is that ?! At the very least those people should know how their own country's inner workings ! Not to mention just generally having a common sense and an adequate look on the world outside.

You're beautiful when you're angry:hug:

[Laworkerbee]

Rather than leggy blonds, they will start with leggy brunettes and then black haired women. Thats the plan.

I will gladly accept this export Tovarich :)

[StalinOrgel]

If russia's life depends on Immigration then they are officialy screwed...One of the MOST known nations for hateing Immigrants on this planet.. before you pop out and sasy oh no thats not true. I can post polls, personal interviews, ect.

It doesnt matter whether Russians hate immigrants or not, they just keep comming.


Now on the topic of oil..People get real if we can create micro-processors why on earth do you think the search for another energy source wont be sucessful?

The Russia will run out of oil much earlier this search succeeds.

[Jobu]

Unless they get the mortality rate under better control, I see future problems between an underpopulated Russia and an overpopulated China on the border.

[AlexMartin2]

Unless they get the mortality rate under better control, I see future problems between an underpopulated Russia and an overpopulated China on the border.

All except Russians see problems between Russia & Chine. Hmm, thats strange :)

[Havoc345]

Is that so ? Ever happen to hear the word "barrio", hmm ? Pray tell, how good a measure of assimilation China Towns are ? Little Italys ? Brighton ?
Is it not a fact, that in such districts government employs mostly social workers fluent in local languages ?


This is honestly pathetic, you really think Italians, Asian and Jews have not assimilated into American society. These ethnic neighborhoods you refer to are not even inhabited by the original ethnic groups who founded them, for example if you go to Chinatown in NYC you will see plenty of whites buying up the apartments there.

[makavelli]

Russian should stabilise their political view and invest on more of its infrastructure..
then Russia can go to the top 10...

[perdurabo]

Russia needs less universities and more what we call here Polytechnics. A Polytechnic is a practical version of a university with less theory and more practical goals.
They need a large number of skilled factory workers, rather than a large number of well paid managers.

All of their problems can't be solved overnight, but being a "world powerhouse" shouldn't be their goal. Extending the average lifespan of the population, improving the quality of life, and raising the living standard of the average Russian should be the goal. Japan had an amazing economy and is still quite impressive, but look at the suicide rate!. You have to ask yourself if being a wealthy country is worth the stress?
About polytechnic we have egactly same problem, too meany idiots studies classic literature or other sh!t studies while too litle becomes engeeniers.

loook at Germany and their suicide rate... Japan has high suicide rate because its culture.

Can one show me source how big% of Russias GDP is Oil and Gas?

[ren0312]

About polytechnic we have egactly same problem, too meany idiots studies classic literature or other sh!t studies while too litle becomes engeeniers.

loook at Germany and their suicide rate... Japan has high suicide rate because its culture.

Can one show me source how big% of Russias GDP is Oil and Gas?

That is because blue collar jobs have an image of being low and demeaning to a person's dignity compared to a 9 to 5 white collar job, even though they may pay better.

[Breakfast in Vegas]

About polytechnic we have egactly same problem, too meany idiots studies classic literature or other sh!t studies while too litle becomes engeeniers.

loook at Germany and their suicide rate... Japan has high suicide rate because its culture.

Can one show me source how big% of Russias GDP is Oil and Gas?According to the below chart, about 20,5% of GDp and about 60% of export revenue.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/cabs/Russia/Background.html

Moreover, do not forget that a major source of revenue for the Russian government is tax of energy exports. Oil tax alone accounts for 33% of government income. So the accusations of the Russian economy being a "one-trick pony" are at least somewhat accurate.

Due to the falling price of oil and subsequent revenue loss, the government has had to downscale it's budget for the next year.

[angry cow]

Building your economy on the back of commodities has never been a successful strategy for long-term economic development. (see economies; post-colonial)

In fact, the nations that do best in Globalization are typically those who devote more resources to technology, research, development, and education precisely because they do not have large stores of natural resources and thus must focus on making their companies and population competitive on the global marketplace. Additionally, oil won't be expensive forever, the American economy has reduced its demand for oil 5.3% in the last year, when prices get high, people make changes, changes like buying a more efficient car, changes that last a long time. And the same technological innovations are making their way to the nations that would supposedly fuel high oil demand through the 21st century, China and India, where things like Hybrid vehicles are already widely available and growing in popularity.

Russia needs to invest more in health and education, and increase government transparency to encourage investment. It's not rocket science.

[Eztyga]

Vodka kills...

[perdurabo]

That is because blue collar jobs have an image of being low and demeaning to a person's dignity compared to a 9 to 5 white collar job, even though they may pay better.
blue collar? withe collar?

[Breakfast in Vegas]

blue collar? withe collar?White collar (as in color of dress shirt): management and admin

Blue collar (as in color of working overall): factory workers etc... working class.

[MichaelF]

White Collar includes Engineers. Any educated Professional.

[zxc]

If russia's life depends on Immigration then they are officialy screwed...One of the MOST known nations for hateing Immigrants on this planet.. before you pop out and sasy oh no thats not true. I can post polls, personal interviews, ect.



I'm tired of all this all Russians are nazis BS. Some foreigner watching 2-3 documentary on Russian nazis suddenly believe that all Russians are hardcore neo-nazis beheading "immigrants". This is all bull****. There are ofcourse Neo-nazis and yes they are a problem , but the way the west pictures it is faaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaar from how it really is. What are you going to show me? Polls , stating that Russians dont want to work with Chechens? American News Channels describing horror and racism in Russia?

[Afro-European]

I'm tired of all this all Russians are nazis BS. Some foreigner watching 2-3 documentary on Russian nazis suddenly believe that all Russians are hardcore neo-nazis beheading "immigrants". This is all bull****. There are ofcourse Neo-nazis and yes they are a problem , but the way the west pictures it is faaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaar from how it really is. What are you going to show me? Polls , stating that Russians dont want to work with Chechens? American News Channels describing horror and racism in Russia?
Russians are of coz not Neo-Nazis but with the daily killing of non "Slavic" looking Russians in Moscow alone,people at some point start to wonder...

[Indiana Jones]

I'm tired of all this all Russians are nazis BS. Some foreigner watching 2-3 documentary on Russian nazis suddenly believe that all Russians are hardcore neo-nazis beheading "immigrants". This is all bull****. There are ofcourse Neo-nazis and yes they are a problem , but the way the west pictures it is faaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaar from how it really is. What are you going to show me? Polls , stating that Russians dont want to work with Chechens? American News Channels describing horror and racism in Russia?
Nazis and beheadings are completely besides the point.
However, subjective experiences of outright hostility towards foreigners aside, (of which there are plenty) Russian society is by virtually all statistical indications indeed comparatively strongly xenophobic.

[Lokos]

In fact, the nations that do best in Globalization are typically those who devote more resources to technology, research, development, and education precisely because they do not have large stores of natural resources and thus must focus on making their companies and population competitive on the global marketplace.

On the other hand, Australia has a commodity driven export economy, and yet also has one of the world's most advanced domestic service sectors. I do not subscribe to panaceas. The above is a generalization of the first order. There is no disadvantage to having access to enormous quantities of raw resources. Development is a matter of investment.

L.

[tommy00]

Russian population is sinking, true, but even more serious are situation with a laborforce.
By 2010-2024 will enter to a labormarket ca. 21 mln. people, but same time leaves the market ca. 37 mln. people.
So, in a next ca. 16 years gonna be in Russia shortage of 16 mln. pair of workhands...
And migration is not always a answer....(should read, but only in russian)
http://www.demographia.ru/articles_N/index.html?idR=44&idArt=1211

[ViaDUKE]

Russians are of coz not Neo-Nazis but with the daily killing of non "Slavic" looking Russians in Moscow alone,people at some point start to wonder...
Come on, Moscow is 12 million ppl city with some 30-40% of non slavic population.
So out of 10-20 ppl killed each day (I dont know exact murder level anyway) 1 easely could be non slavic.
This is mean nothing. The same I can tell of any megapolis.

[Xaito]

Russians are of coz not Neo-Nazis but with the daily killing of non "Slavic" looking Russians in Moscow alone,people at some point start to wonder...

where do you get your numbers from?
also you might want to check if these numbers (if you even did look at numbers and don't just guess) contain only hate crimes... because non "slavic" looking people might be also be killed for other reasons...


Russian society is by virtually all statistical indications indeed comparatively strongly xenophobic
"virtually" is probably the right word...
it might look like it because Russians probably do not always hide their prejudices etc like you'd have to do in political correct countries...
but in reality Russians always lived and worked together with all kinds of other people.
And believe me - those people who try to hide it aren't any less xenophobic and neither are they easier to deal with as a foreigner.

[tommy00]

A popular video from "Rutube"....
http://rutube.ru/tracks/986084.html?v=6a95457dbe1a18fb9b2b807b185f25c3

[Xaito]

A popular video from "Rutube"....


for those who don't understand what he says:
He tells that illegal immigrants - especially problematic ones like those from caucasus who usually are martial artists - hate/don't respect Russian people because nowadays Russians (from the "pepsi generation") are known for alcohol and drug abuse.
Then he says "If you want to change something, start with yourself - stop drinking beer and using drugs, do sports" etc.

A good message actually, spoiled only by some nazi gestures...

[Ordie]

for those who don't understand what he says:
He tells that illegal immigrants - especially problematic ones like those from caucasus who usually are martial artists - hate/don't respect Russian people because nowadays Russians (from the "pepsi generation") are known for alcohol and drug abuse....

If Russia does not want Caucasians, there are plenty of Chinese and North Koreans who are more willing to do the work.

The US has benefitted greatly from Chinese immigrants in the completion of the US Trans-continnental Railroad. Perhaps Russia should embark on a similar project for a motorway connecting Vladivostok to St. Petersburg using Chinese labor.

[zxc]

where do you get your numbers from?
also you might want to check if these numbers (if you even did look at numbers and don't just guess) contain only hate crimes... because non "slavic" looking people might be also be killed for other reasons...


"virtually" is probably the right word...
it might look like it because Russians probably do not always hide their prejudices etc like you'd have to do in political correct countries...
but in reality Russians always lived and worked together with all kinds of other people.
And believe me - those people who try to hide it aren't any less xenophobic and neither are they easier to deal with as a foreigner.

Exactly. The Soviet Union, anyone? During those times we had A LOT of immigrants from other countries (mainly poor ones) such as from the Middle-east and Africa. If Russians were so racist, wouldnt that have showed during those times also? BTW people from kavkaz have always lived with Russians and all other people during the time of the Soviet Union.



A popular video from "Rutube"....
http://rutube.ru/tracks/986084.html?...2b807b185f25c3 (http://rutube.ru/tracks/986084.html?v=6a95457dbe1a18fb9b2b807b185f25c3)


And about this video. This guy tries to give the impression of a reality that does not really exist. I know lots of kavkaz people. None of them show any hate towards Russians. They understand that without "Russians" during Soviet times the would be living in a very primitive society. It was the Soviet union that for example educated Chechens, built houses, schools and hospitals for them. The people that knows this show great respect towards Russian speaking people.

[Horse Thief]

Annual population growth rate in percent, as listed in the CIA World Factbook (2006 estimate).

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/27/Population_growth_rate_world.PNG



:|

[tommy00]

It was the Soviet union that for example educated Chechens, built houses, schools and hospitals for them. The people that knows this show great respect towards Russian speaking people.

And it was Soviet union who deported allmost all of them....how convenieltly you forget that...that stays on a nations memory too..

[zxc]

And it was Soviet union who deported allmost all of them....how convenieltly you forget that...that stays on a nations memory too..

This was during Stalins time. Nothing happend in Chechnya then. I meant after that period.

[Indiana Jones]

for those who don't understand what he says:
He tells that illegal immigrants - especially problematic ones like those from caucasus who usually are martial artists - hate/don't respect Russian people because nowadays Russians (from the "pepsi generation") are known for alcohol and drug abuse.
Then he says "If you want to change something, start with yourself - stop drinking beer and using drugs, do sports" etc.

A good message actually, spoiled only by some nazi gestures...
Die Kanaken-Schläger respektieren euch nicht, weil ihr verweichlichte degenerierte Waschweiber seid. Reißt euch am Riemen, sauft nicht, lernt Boxen und verprügelt das Pack einfach selber. Deutsche wehrt euch ! Heil Hitler...eh... Slava Rossija !
Eine im Grunde lobenswerte Attitüde, die lediglich von "einigen Nazi-Gesten" kompromittiert wird. Würden sie das auch unterschreiben, wenn sie es von einem Deutschen hören würden ? Sind sie sich auch sicher, daß sie hier nicht mit zweierlei Maß messen ? Das nur am Rande.
To the esteemed moderators: I had to show off my German. Fire away with the infractions.

[Indiana Jones]

"virtually" is probably the right word...
it might look like it because Russians probably do not always hide their prejudices etc like you'd have to do in political correct countries...
but in reality Russians always lived and worked together with all kinds of other people.

Historically, in many societies, including eminently xenophobic ones, the Staatsvolk has always coexisted with other ethnies. The mere fact of this coexistence does patently not make a case against the existence of racist attitudes. One might argue for multiple reasons that violent interethnic crime does not necessarily constitute a convincing yardstick for the measurement of racist attitudes, either, at least not exclusively. This holds especially true in an objectively very violent society such as Russia and I will be the first to concede that. The number of (in all likelihood considerably underreported) "hate crimes" however is indeed way too flagrant to overlook.

And believe me - those people who try to hide it aren't any less xenophobic and neither are they easier to deal with as a foreigner.That certainly rings true.

[Afro-European]

where do you get your numbers from?
also you might want to check if these numbers (if you even did look at numbers and don't just guess) contain only hate crimes... because non "slavic" looking people might be also be killed for other reasons...

That's what i read in the newspapers and other forums.I don't know if those news are true and the numbers accurate.

[TheOpposition]

for those who don't understand what he says:
He tells that illegal immigrants - especially problematic ones like those from caucasus who usually are martial artists - hate/don't respect Russian people because nowadays Russians (from the "pepsi generation") are known for alcohol and drug abuse.
Then he says "If you want to change something, start with yourself - stop drinking beer and using drugs, do sports" etc.

A good message actually, spoiled only by some nazi gestures...


"Good message only spoiled by some Nazi gestures" :roll:
are you wearing your profile title as a badge? Would love to see your personal review on Hitler then...


that my last post on the subject, all this "Well..we did it but you misunderstand the meaning" -talk Is wearing thin.

[sepheronx]

Just because we watch a few videos on the web or take on a couple of "WESTERN" perspectives, does not make it true. Take in account, that in the USA that there are plenty of people killing each other every day. When a black guy shoots a white guy, or vice versa, is that a hate crime? Also, here in Canada, we have a large share of skinheads. But does that make us a racist community.

[Xaito]

Die Kanaken-Schläger respektieren euch nicht, weil ihr verweichlichte degenerierte Waschweiber seid. Reißt euch am Riemen, sauft nicht, lernt Boxen und verprügelt das Pack einfach selber. Deutsche wehrt euch ! Heil Hitler...eh... Slava Rossija !
Eine im Grunde lobenswerte Attitüde, die lediglich von "einigen Nazi-Gesten" kompromittiert wird. Würden sie das auch unterschreiben, wenn sie es von einem Deutschen hören würden ? Sind sie sich auch sicher, daß sie hier nicht mit zweierlei Maß messen ? Das nur am Rande.
To the esteemed moderators: I had to show off my German. Fire away with the infractions.

You've brought it to a bigger extreme then even the nazi guy - but I still think that "stop drinking and taking drugs, make something out of yourself so you can be proud" is a good message - if people do that then they really have reason to be proud of themselves in contrary to just being proud about their ethnicity - and I'd give that advice any time to German and Russian youth alike seeing how common alcohol and drug abuse was when I was back in school.
It was kinda disturbing seeing kids meeting up regularly just to drink alcohol like the bums who always hang out behind the bus stop I used on my way to school. :)



Would love to see your personal review on Hitler then...
Oh ffs leave Hitler and the nazi-card out of it.
When I said it was a good message I had two things in mind - one thing was the anti alcohol/drug message - nothing negative about it.
the other one is:
you don't have to be a nazi to see that immigrants who come from harsher/less sheltered conditions are often tougher in many ways - this can easily lead to problems on the personal level (I'm talking from personal experience with some Turkish "gangs") - being able to stand up for yourself and your friends or loved ones is important imo.
These both messages are when not in the context of "go out and beat up a foreigner" good ones...

[non]

The Soviet Union, anyone? During those times we had A LOT of immigrants from other countries (mainly poor ones) such as from the Middle-east and Africa. If Russians were so racist, wouldnt that have showed during those times also?
Please, tell me you're joking. This SU/Russia differentiation is becoming a serious dependancy on convenience of rubbery context; i.e., 'bad thingys'=SU, 'good stuffs and thingys'= good Russian folk.
To answer your question:
...ehh, internationalist conspiracy against the greatness of the Russian people(or, atleast, their Tsars and the Orthodox Church) letting all the filthy immigrants in, maybe? You know, in accordance with the goal of the purely Soviet Man. I'd postulate labor as a possible reason, but...p-)
Probably, the freakin joos behind it, though. Umm-hmm.

[angry cow]

On the population thing, I agree with what others have said that this is merely the result of the Russian "Baby Boom" reaching old age faster than it has in other countries, more a result of the local situation than anything since. Remember, while other countries were booming in population after WWII, Russia was just trying to get back to where they were before the war.