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LaoSexMachine
11-13-2008, 09:52 PM
China startled by force of crisis
By Michael Bristow
BBC News, Beijing
Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao says the effect of the global financial crisis on China is "worse than expected", according to reports.
It is the first time the premier's personal view on how the crisis is affecting China has been made public.
His words come days after the country announced a $586bn (£370bn) stimulus package to avoid the economy slowing.
China's growth rate is still high compared to other countries, but economic expansion slowed this year.
According to the state-run China Daily, Premier Wen gave his downbeat assessment to government staff at a briefing on Tuesday.
Slowing down
It shows how the fortunes of the world's fourth-largest economy have changed dramatically in a short space of time.
It is not long ago that China was introducing measures to cool down an economy that grew by 11.9% last year. But that figure fell to just 9% in the third quarter of this year due to a slowing of export and investment growth.
The governor of southern Guangdong Province, where many of China's factories are based, recently said that orders had fallen sharply this year. Many companies in the province have closed down, leaving thousands of people, mostly migrant workers, without jobs.
China's fear is that increasing unemployment will lead to social instability, as it did when many state-run firms were closed a decade ago.
To offset the slowdown, over the last few months China has introduced a range of measures to boost the economy, such as cutting interest rates.
But the sudden global financial crisis meant the government had to act further.
The 10-point stimulus plan will see the government loosen credit controls, spend more on infrastructure projects and cut taxes.
It also hopes to persuade Chinese shoppers to spend more.

Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/asia-pacific/7727237.stm

Flagg
11-13-2008, 10:47 PM
Yeah...China's going to get pounded in the keister........

BUT....

They've got lots of cash

They've got a dictatorship..so they can make ugly but sometimes necessary choices QUICKLY

They've got HUGE savings rates...something like 30-40% of gross income for many.

The bad news is that it's going to HURT...and they haven't gone through THIS before(their first modern capitalist recession/depression)....but I'm thinking everyone who lived through the Cultural Revolution it's going to be like water on a ducks back.

China can pull finger and do what the US did in 2001-forward...it's patriotic to SPEND.

Time will tell......but I reckon systemic stress fractures and some fairly large riots will be somewhat common.

A velvet covered iron fist is quite likely to be the glue to keep everything together.

Just my 0.02c

longmarch
11-13-2008, 11:03 PM
Yeah...China's going to get pounded in the keister........

BUT....

They've got lots of cash

They've got a dictatorship..so they can make ugly but sometimes necessary choices QUICKLY

They've got HUGE savings rates...something like 30-40% of gross income for many.

The bad news is that it's going to HURT...and they haven't gone through THIS before(their first modern capitalist recession/depression)....but I'm thinking everyone who lived through the Cultural Revolution it's going to be like water on a ducks back.

China can pull finger and do what the US did in 2001-forward...it's patriotic to SPEND.

Time will tell......but I reckon systemic stress fractures and some fairly large riots will be somewhat common.

A velvet covered iron fist is quite likely to be the glue to keep everything together.

Just my 0.02c

Cash is king. Just like when starvation is rampant, the last survivor is who hoard most food.

TheMiddlePath
11-14-2008, 12:49 AM
Chinese proverb. Food for 10 is food for 11.

Ordie
11-14-2008, 12:58 AM
The lesson for China is that they can't always depend on exports. They need to encourage more domestic investment, production and distribution.

Flagg
11-14-2008, 01:13 AM
The lesson for China is that they can't always depend on exports. They need to encourage more domestic investment, production and distribution.

China has a lot of "dry powder" by encouraging domestic spending.

It will not cover the entire growth shortfall, but would go at least partway in helping cushion a recessionary blow.