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xav
12-05-2008, 11:26 AM
**** that seriously! :fork:

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2008/images/12/05/t1home.jobs.chart.cnn.jpg


Payrolls shrink by 533,000, bringing 11-month decline to 1.9 million. Unemployment soars to 6.7%

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The economy shed 533,000 jobs in November, according to a government report Friday - bringing the year's total job losses to 1.9 million.

November had the largest monthly job loss total since December 1974.

"No one expected such a drastic number," said Tig Gilliam, chief executive of placement agency Adecco. "This is a real wake-up number."

According to the Labor Department's monthly jobs report, the unemployment rate rose to 6.7% from 6.5% in October. Though lower than economists' forecast of 6.8%, it was the highest unemployment rate since October 1993.

Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had forecast a loss of 325,000 jobs in the month. November's monthly job loss total was greater than October's revised loss of 320,000. Payroll cuts in September were revised up to 403,000.

The revisions brought the 3-month job loss total to 1.3 million. That's equal to two-thirds of this year's total job losses and the third highest three-month job loss total since World War II.

November's report provided the first glimpse at how employers reacted after the peak of the credit crisis, reached in mid-October. With credit largely unavailable and expensive, consumers scaled back their spending, dragging down manufacturing and construction businesses.

Travel has also been trimmed, with would-be vacationers opting to stay close to home.

Accordingly, job losses were spread across a wide variety of industries. Manufacturing lost 85,000 jobs, the leisure and hospitality industries cut 76,000 jobs, and construction employment shrank further by 82,000 jobs.

In a bad sign for the ongoing holiday shopping season, retailers slashed payrolls by 91,300 workers last month.

Professional and business services, a category seen by some economists as a proxy for overall economic activity, had a 136,000-job drop in employment. And financial services jobs fell by 32,000.

The just-under 1.9 million jobs lost in the current recession, which began in December 2007, surpasses the 1.6 million jobs lost in the 2001 recession. That's noteworthy, because jobs were cut in droves in 2001 during the dot.com bust, which followed a white-hot employment market during the tech boom of the late 1990s. The job market expansion leading out of the previous recession was much more drawn-out and tepid.
Deeper cuts likely to come

With the economy in a recession and most economic indicators signaling even more difficult times ahead, economists say job losses will likely deepen and continue through at least the first half of 2009.

Citing weak economic conditions, a slew of large-scale job-cut announcements came this week. On Thursday alone, AT&T (T, Fortune 500), DuPont (DD, Fortune 500), Viacom (VIA), Credit Suisse (CS) and Avis (CAR, Fortune 500) issued statements that totaled nearly 23,000 jobs lost, most of which will take place over the next several months.

According to a report by outsourcing agency Challenger, Gray & Christmas, planned job cut announcements by U.S. employers soared to 181,671 last month, the second-highest total on record.

Temporary employment, including workers employed by temp agencies, fell by 100,700 jobs last month, the highest on records that go back to 1985. That could mean even more full-time payroll reductions to come, as employers often cut temporary workers before they begin cutting permanent staff.

Adecco's Gilliam said employers are trying to position their companies to weather the ever-intensifying economic storm.

"CEOs are trying to get their businesses better positioned for the start of the year so they're not constantly chasing the slowdown" he said. "December will be another very tough month."

In another sign of weakness, a growing number of workers were unable to find jobs with the amount of hours they want to work. Those working part-time jobs - because they couldn't find full-time work, or their hours had been cut back due to slack conditions - jumped by 621,000 people to 7.3 million, the highest ever on records that date back to 1955.

The so-called under-employment rate, which counts those part-time workers, as well as those without jobs who have become discouraged and stopped looking for work, soared to 12.5% from from 11.8%, setting the all-time high for that measure since calculations for it began in January 1994.

But some industries were hiring last month. Government hiring has stayed strong throughout the downturn, adding another 7,000 jobs in November. Education and health services also grew payrolls, which grew by 52,000 employees.

The average hourly work week fell to 33.5 hours last month. Economists expected the workweek to hold at October's level of 33.6 hours. But with a modest 7-cent gain in the average hourly salary, the average weekly paycheck rose by 52 cents to $613.05.
Obama: Time for stimulus

With 2008 already the worst year for jobs since 1982 and on pace to become the worst since 1945 - and second worst on record - support for a second stimulus package to boost the job market has grown among economists and lawmakers.

The prior stimulus package in the spring sent tax rebate checks to millions of tax filers. It helped the economy grow in the second quarter, but it did little to stem the tide of job loss in the country.

But the proposed stimulus package, supported by President-elect Barack Obama, would focus on aid states and municipalities as well as consumers, adding millions of infrastructure jobs for Americans.

"Our economy has already lost nearly 2 million jobs during this recession, which is why we need an Economic Recovery Plan that will save or create at least 2.5 million more jobs over two years," said Obama in a statement. "There are no quick or easy fixes to this crisis, which has been many years in the making, and it's likely to get worse before it gets better."

Experts say a two-part stimulus package is the right way to stem the tide of mounting job losses.

"First, you have to get consumers to spend, since 70% of the GDP is tied to consumer spending, and then you need job stimulus like highway projects to maintain economic job growth," said Gilliam. "This number is so bad that Obama will have to do something drastic soon." To top of page

http://money.cnn.com/2008/12/05/news/economy/jobs_november/index.htm

THat plus:

$1 trillion rescue: Not so far-fetched
As economic conditions worsen, the estimated cost of stimulating the economy shoots up.
http://money.cnn.com/2008/12/05/news/economy/trillion_stimulus/index.htm

Shuimo
12-05-2008, 11:29 AM
Time will heal everything!
Tighten our belt, and pray for the early recovery of the global economy.

Parx400
12-05-2008, 11:31 AM
The faster we let it fall the faster it will go back up.

Supe
12-05-2008, 11:25 PM
The faster we let it fall the faster it will go back up.

shades of Peter Schiff. His view is this is a nasty but much needed dose of medicine as US economic policy has been operating on dubious foundations. (loan bloat, living way beyond Govt means, shady financial practises, over dependence on foreign loans to prop up pork and poor fiscal discipline...) I think he may be right, though unfortunately this 'medicine' will be felt by many people.

KET
12-06-2008, 12:06 AM
what is the deficit now ? 11+ trillion ?
somebody remind me , who won the Cold war ?

Not the Soviet Union. That's for sure.

PALADIN
12-06-2008, 12:09 AM
what is the deficit now ? 11+ trillion ?
somebody remind me , who won the Cold war ?

The one that's still around.

Eventine
12-06-2008, 12:23 AM
Everyone whose fortunes were tied to the US economy are affected. The Chinese, the Europeans, the Russians, the Middle-Easterners - they're all getting theirs. Sorry guys, but nobody's emerging out of this unscathed.

Shuimo
12-06-2008, 12:25 AM
who won the Cold war ?
I think both China and the US (or the West in large) are big winners
of the Cold War.
Due to the collapse of the Soviet, China has a much weaker country as one of its neighbors. And also the end of the Cold War has awoked China to a timely sense of more urgent yet prudent need to develop its economy and political systems.
I feel if it is not for the Cold War, China would not have a fate as it is enjoying today.
For the US, the benefit is much more obvious.
There is only one super state with the farewell of the USSR.:)

Lokos
12-06-2008, 12:26 AM
It was obviously a hasty and needlessly provocative comment - but we don't need eight pages of indignation. So, please, keep the thread on track.

L.

Shuimo
12-06-2008, 12:27 AM
Everyone whose fortunes were tied to the US economy are affected. The Chinese, the Europeans, the Russians, the Middle-Easterners - they're all getting theirs. Sorry guys, but nobody's emerging out of this unscathed.
Yeah, but comparatively speaking, the ones that have the least hurts can be considered as winners as well.rofl

Shuimo
12-06-2008, 12:31 AM
Don't you hear the following story?
Two guys are chased by a bear in a wood.
They run rather fast to escape the pursuit of the bear.
Then one of them complains how can we get rid of the bear, which is running so fast?
But the other guy answers: It doesn't matter. If I run faster than you, it is OK.

Shuimo
12-06-2008, 12:41 AM
Now the US and China are cooperating to deal with the economical turmoil.

len173
12-06-2008, 12:47 AM
what is the deficit now ? 11+ trillion ?
somebody remind me , who won the Cold war ?


annnnnnnd derailed. Way to go genius. . .

Jaegermeister + Red Bull
12-09-2008, 08:21 AM
And someone please remind me why unemployment rate of 6.7% is cause for alarm??? Yes it rose .2 of a percent, biggest since 74, but its what happens during economic contraction (yes I refuse to call it the "recession", the "crisis", the negative terms so liked by newspapers). It is a economic contraction. Terminology neutral. Because this is so neutral compared to historical yardsticks.

The Great Depression, the real one, had unemployment of 25% world wide.

The last real recession, back in late 1980/1990s, had unemployment of 11-12%.

Please look at how excessively growth has been for the last 5 years, driven by consumer spending fueled by debt, this is a correction, sorely needed. Tough but necessary.

At the end of the day, those who come out of adversity come out stronger. And hopefully wiser.

If you can keep employed during this time, good. If you not happy, change. If you get laid off, see it as an opportunity to go surf and smoke weed.

I almost choked on tea when I heard my states premier declare war on unemployment because it is due to increase from 3.75% to 4.25% first qrt of next year. Yes, easing of labour constraint is detrimental to health of the overall economy.

Seriously ppls these days have a low pain tolerance threshold.

And yes I am having a spray because I am just so sick of hearing of this negative doom and gloom shiat everywhere...yes I should change the channel, but its on every damn channel, its on every damn newspaper, they talk about it at work all day...and its even on MP.net!!!

Nah seriously ppls its all cool, the thing will blow over in 6-12mths. Chill.

DarthJesus
12-09-2008, 04:56 PM
I don't understand comments like this telling people to just buck up and stop complaining. It's like being on a sinking boat with no life raft and saying everything's fine until you hit the water.

I know the media can sensationalize events but in this case there is ample reason to be alarmed. People are worried about the unemployment rate because it has increased very quickly in the last three months and its going to get worse, probably much worse, in the next year. There is a good chance we'll hit an unemployment rate of 11 or 12 percent. Would you be concerned then? Or would you just keep saying that things were worse in the Great Depression so there's no reason to worry?

Jaegermeister + Red Bull
12-09-2008, 05:15 PM
I don't understand comments like this telling people to just buck up and stop complaining. It's like being on a sinking boat with no life raft and saying everything's fine until you hit the water.

I know the media can sensationalize events but in this case there is ample reason to be alarmed. People are worried about the unemployment rate because it has increased very quickly in the last three months and its going to get worse, probably much worse, in the next year. There is a good chance we'll hit an unemployment rate of 11 or 12 percent. Would you be concerned then? Or would you just keep saying that things were worse in the Great Depression so there's no reason to worry?

Like I said, economies work in cycles, you grow for 8-9 years and and you contract 1-2 years.

Deal with it.

deagle
12-09-2008, 07:59 PM
great job that stimulus check and all those bailouts did for us.

LuKaZz
12-10-2008, 05:12 AM
Like I said, economies work in cycles, you grow for 8-9 years and and you contract 1-2 years.

Deal with it.

I have to agree with you, if there's one thing that economics lectures have taught me in uni is the cyclic nature of the economic system.

People do really have a very low pain threesold these days, we've been through worst periods than this and we'll get by somehow.

The past two decades of over-hyped growth have been based on some very weak foundations, in the short-term there'll be quite a few ill-effects, but it's the only way to ensure long-term recovery.

Jaegermeister + Red Bull
12-10-2008, 06:41 AM
I perhaps should explain where my POV comes from. I work with alot of people who went into the workforce during the early 90s. They werent already working, they werent laid off and looking for another job. They were ENTERING the workforce, during an actual economic contraction.

One of my colleague, a mech eng, got 3 months of engineering related work in the first year or two out of uni. He spent the rest of the time picking fruit as a farm hand. That was in 1994. You get what ever job you can and you worked. That was during 11-12% unemployment times.

My parents paid off their home mortgage in 5yrs @ 10+% interest rate during the 90s, working 2 shifts and saving every cent. They didnt over extend themselve on the loan, and had to prove they had 20% deposit, plus have 30% of their income left after bills and grocery are paid off so that should one get sick and/or the interest rates go up, they can meet the increased terms of payment. They didnt go for their dream home, with a big pool, with a big yard. They went for a house they could reasonably afford, the only requirement were that it was in a good suburb with a good middle school within walking distance.

They all actually went through a real down turn, and knows what its like.

So please forgive me when I say...those whom have been caught with their pants down you either roll with the punches and get up again when things are clear again or you can bitch and moan and take it standing still. Your choice.

Those whom have been good little squirrels, storing away for the coming winter, well what can I say except more power to you.

And if you want advice this is what I have:

1. Join the armed forces, they love an economic contraction. Suddenly recruitment becomes so much easier.

2. Go back to uni/college/night school, and get a diploma/trade. You might as well do something useful when you are not needed and sharpen up your skillz for the eventual upswing.

3. Go on the dole, smoke weed and surf. When economic expansion starts again go find a unskilled labourers job, and repeat cycle when the next one comes around.

And for the 16-22yos still in uni/highschool, dont worry during an economic contraction it has been statiscally proven that school/uni retention rates climb due to people delaying entering workforce. That is exactly what you should do, if education in your country is free, you should deliberately FAIL so you can repeat a year. Might as well do another year of booze, drugs, *** and uncontrolled parties while you get the chance.

T3ngu
12-10-2008, 06:42 AM
Rio tinto announced today that they are laying off 14,000+ workers worldwide.

Jaegermeister + Red Bull
12-10-2008, 06:43 AM
Riot tinto announced today that they are laying of 14,000+ workers worldwide.

That why I am staying with govt infrastructure job, rock solid. For now.

Jaegermeister + Red Bull
12-10-2008, 06:45 AM
Riot tinto announced today that they are laying of 14,000+ workers worldwide.

"The company said it would cut 8,500 contractor and 5,500 employee roles, as well as reduce spending and sell assets, to lower its debt by the end of 2009 to counter the speed and severity of the global financial crisis."

8500 contractor...the fat.

5500 employee...the dead woods.

Exactly what I would do as an employer, trim the excess and clean out the junk.

"But it said there would be a consolidation of offices around the group, a rapid acceleration of out-sourcing of IT and procurement and a deferral of exploration and evaluation expenditure."

So consolidation of offices and out sourcing of IT/procurement, code word for reducing operating overhead costs.

T3ngu
12-10-2008, 06:58 AM
"The company said it would cut 8,500 contractor and 5,500 employee roles, as well as reduce spending and sell assets, to lower its debt by the end of 2009 to counter the speed and severity of the global financial crisis."

8500 contractor...the fat.

5500 employee...the dead woods.

Exactly what I would do as an employer, trim the excess and clean out the junk.

"But it said there would be a consolidation of offices around the group, a rapid acceleration of out-sourcing of IT and procurement and a deferral of exploration and evaluation expenditure."

So consolidation of offices and out sourcing of IT/procurement, code word for reducing operating overhead costs.
Not quite. I worked at one RTA site, where over 70% of the workforce was contractors. The company (IIRC) said that the site could be operated on x workers, when in reality it needed 2-3x. Thus, to keep with the plan for the site, they simply subcontracted out.

Obviously your point is correct, but i can see some operations come to a grinding halt in the near future.

Jaegermeister + Red Bull
12-10-2008, 07:09 AM
No quite. I worked at one RTA site, where over 70% of the workforce was contractors. The company (IIRC) said that the site could be operated on x workers, when in reality it needed 2-3x. Thus, to keep with the plan for the site, they simply subcontracted out.

Obviously your point is correct, but i can see some operations come to a grinding halt in the near future.

Points acknowledged. Thanks.

Still the company that said the site can be operated on x workers, probably during the boom. So really they were chronically short staffed. And the quickest way to ramp up a site is either labour hire or subcontractors. IMO its a really dodgy way of doing HR, but it seems to be everywhere during the boom; HR was at its wits end trying to get staff and wages employee for projects. I was the dumb sh1t that stayed with my first employer for 3 projects on salary while everywhere around me people were job hopping and on $95/hr contract rates on site.

Still, I think its a good thing. A downturn tends to leave the good operators lean but still breathing, while the yahoos gets cleaned out.

I remember back in April/May, when I went out for tend on a few subcontracts around the $100k to 500k range, it was pretty depressing, I was begging for them to take a look at the work. Next year, I think they will be stampeding through the front office trying to get their tender price in, and they will be sharp too.

T3ngu
12-10-2008, 07:16 AM
Points acknowledged. Thanks.

Still the company that said the site can be operated on x workers, probably during the boom. So really they were chronically short staffed. And the quickest way to ramp up a site is either labour hire or subcontractors. IMO its a really dodgy way of doing HR, but it seems to be everywhere during the boom; HR was at its wits end trying to get staff and wages employee for projects.

Still, I think its a good thing. A downturn tends to leave the good operators lean but still breathing, while the yahoos gets cleaned out.

I remember back in April/May, when I went out for tend on a few subcontracts around the $100k to 500k range, it was pretty depressing, I was begging for them to take a look at the work. Next year, I think they will be stampeding through the front office trying to get their tender price in, and they will be sharp too.

I just checked, the site opened recently actually, and you are correct, a large number of their workforce are from consultants on permanent loan. Its one way around paper work i guess, but you pay top dollar for something can could be done in house, thus costing at least 25-50% more.

You are correct about the subcontractors, when i was in government i would have paid anything to get a specialist air conditoner installed, only got one tender in, even though i told them all i would pay whatever they wanted.

More recently i have had to get a few companies out to do work for us, they will do the work, but not follow up with reports and results etc. One job was for 100k (i only got one quote as a favour to them), and it took them 6 months to get me some basic numbers. When they make money hand over fist they think they can slack on customer service.

And finally, you were correct, i was just pointing out a case, which probably isn't that common.

Jaegermeister + Red Bull
12-11-2008, 06:01 AM
I just checked, the site opened recently actually, and you are correct, a large ...

And finally, you were correct, i was just pointing out a case, which probably isn't that common.

Hey T3ngu, do you know how many of those consultants/contractors are 457 visa workers? When I was in Mackay 8 months ago, the word was pretty much all the Oztralian boilermakers have left low (comparatively) paying jobs in fabrication shops and gone to the mines, and the steel workshops had to get 457 boilermakers from China (I bumped into a few, most looked like northerners to my discriminating eyes). Now that the mines/sites are doing lay offs, it looks like it might get interesting.

My current workplace is like the UN of construction, probably half the staff is 457. Even the civil subbie doing FRP on site is almost 80% Irish&Poms. Interesting to see whether the federal government gives the 457 the chop during these interesting economic times to preserve local employment.

Not saying they should or there is a need to yet, but if labour constraints are relaxed (ie. increased unemployment, decrease in job ads) bet your top dollar 457 visa category will get the magnifying glass treatment.

T3ngu
12-11-2008, 06:57 AM
Mate

Didn't see any obvious 457's on site, but no doubt they are about as we have a number here where i live. Pity some companies use them as slave labour and dump them like hot potatoes. One national non-mining company (won't mention its name) uses them so they don't have to pay full rates to Australians. Not sure about the legality of that, but they brag the do it. On that basis my wife would not take a job with them in their office.

Jaegermeister + Red Bull
12-11-2008, 07:27 AM
Mate

Didn't see any obvious 457's on site, but no doubt they are about as we have a number here where i live. Pity some companies use them as slave labour and dump them like hot potatoes. One national non-mining company (won't mention its name) uses them so they don't have to pay full rates to Australians. Not sure about the legality of that, but they brag the do it. On that basis my wife would not take a job with them in their office.

Sounds like a clear breach of the visa conditions, where the company had to prove they cannot find the same experience and qualifications locally for the position. I think over the last 2-3 years it was relaxed due to the boom and some operators were abusing the system.