USA to disappear in 50 years

[Ordie]

This guy has some compelling arguments.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s_OP1wXGmzY

[bigvig]

Who is this guy? EDIT: I don't know if those examples of dissent he cited are actually valid. In fact, I can imagine that happening to the Eisenhower administration. Governor Orval Faubus activated the Arkansas Guard to prevent integration and that led to Eisenhower federalizing the Guard and overruling the governor. Bush had the authority to send troops to the border, why didn't he do it if the Governor of California refused? EDIT #2: I'll tell you why, because Bush doesn't give a **** about the border.

[Ordie]

Who is this guy?

Paul Saffo- Futurist

[Ordie]

Bush had the authority to send troops to the border, why didn't he do it if the Governor of California refused? EDIT #2: I'll tell you why, because Bush doesn't give a **** about the border.

Perhaps the Mexican border doesn't want to exist.

[Lusitania]

I'm not buying this, he seems to ignore the effects of the devolution movement that we saw began to pick up steam in the 1980s. Not to mention, his Bush-Schwarzenegger example is directly in connection with the reduction in party strength (such as the dissolution of the political machines that were present even through the election of JFK), coupled with devolution. He seems to mix up the idea of the independence in states, as the preamble of some dissolution, while it is nothing more than the continuance of a 233-year struggle within the United States between the balance of federal and state duties. Plain and simple, what he concedes as an increase in independence, is no more (in my understanding) than small political shifts in federalism (we have seen this shift many a time within American history; in many respects, our very US Civil War was a war of federalism).

[deagle]

he might be right, we might change our name to United States of the World. lol

if he can feel the future, i'd like to see him win the next lottery, otherwise, any and all claims are rubbish.

[AmandlaEwetu]

All empires rise and fall

[Walter Sobchak]

He makes a huggggge assumption: Bush and Ah-nawld are both "Republicans" in other than name. :grin:

Hey, this guy is getting paid to lecture. If he was selling hearts and flowers, that hall would be empty.

[ggk]

Who is this guy? EDIT: I don't know if those examples of dissent he cited are actually valid. In fact, I can imagine that happening to the Eisenhower administration. Governor Orval Faubus activated the Arkansas Guard to prevent integration and that led to Eisenhower federalizing the Guard and overruling the governor. Bush had the authority to send troops to the border, why didn't he do it if the Governor of California refused? EDIT #2: I'll tell you why, because Bush doesn't give a **** about the border.

why ask Governor of California only? why not the governor of Texas too?

[bigvig]

I envision the United States become a racially segmented society, still intact, not fracturing into city-states like that "futurist" predicts, but basically there will be a mulatto/mixed-race segment that becomes prominent in either coast, a white midwest, and a hispanic dominated south-west. Sort of like Brazil. Obviously this will have a drastic effect on the traditional power structure as it is now, but I can't see the US breaking up. Does anyone agree or is this too controversial?

[bigvig]

why ask Governor of California only? why not the governor of Texas too?
You have to watch the video first to understand that post.

[ren0312]

I envision the United States become a racially segmented society, still intact, not fracturing into city-states like that "futurist" predicts, but basically there will be a mulatto/mixed-race segment that becomes prominent in either coast, a white midwest, and a hispanic dominated south-west. Sort of like Brazil. Obviously this will have a drastic effect on the traditional power structure as it is now, but I can't see the US breaking up. Does anyone agree or is this too controversial?

So you see that as a good thing? With a population of 300 million people and with half of its land either being arid or semi arid or frozen tundra, the US while not overpopulated, is also not under populated, so the US should be looking at maintaining its population, not constantly growing it. As for the SouthWest I really do not see it forming a union with Mexico, but I can see it as a American verison of the Flanders, with its own distinct culture and language, not truly Mexican but close to it, and could see this region possibly asking for a greater amount of autonomy from the US Federal government than the present system allows, although the possibility that the SouthWest will just choose to secede can not be discounted also.

[Connaught Ranger]

USA to disappear in 50 years

Damn thought this post was about MEGA-coastal erosion!!!

[Rudolph]

I saw it happen in Lost. Serious.

[ting]

Thanks Ordie, that was interesting. He has some interesting opinions.

[Dinges]

Good post.

But I do not think this applicable to the US only. Just look what is happening in other federal countries like Belgium at present and the EU for that matter.

[oldsoak]

I wonder if the northern states bordering Canada might become part of the New Canada. :-P
That might even become a theme for a few novels.
S'all right folks, it wont involve changes in diet or dress. Language is the same in the greater part. Representation - well, it wont be a lot different - nothing that the founding fathers would not agree to. Taxation - got me there. Measurement - heck, claim it as part of traditional life along with hot dogs and hamburgers and chances are you'll get a law protecting pounds,feet, inches, gallons etc.

[Ordie]

In California, the state government in Sacramento is becomming irrelelvant. The metropolitan areas of SOCAL (LA, Orange Co. and San Diego) and Bay Area are setting thier own policies and agreements with other nations.

Both LAX and SFO airports have more direct international flights than IAD (Washington DC). Thus the "city states" of the West Coast are more connected globally than the federal government.

I envision that Vancouver BC, Seattle, Tacoma, and Portland will morph into a inter-urban economy of its own setting its own policies.

The areas that will suffer are the 'in-between' communities as we are seeing today in Fresno, California.

[Dinges]

Imagine seeing feudal city states in our time again. I know it is far-fetched , but as you know that history is written and the future not.:)

[sinophile]

For every example of "city-state" emergence I can site an example of centralization of power in Washington.

If the US disappears in 50 years its going to be a transition to a larger union, or by some war or catastrophe.

[Karl_Kroenen]

City states as the new source of power?

Not likely.

Try regional unions. NATO and the Shanghai Coop were prototypes for this new type of power and we'll see more of it in the future.

Look at how the EU is refining it. It's proving that nation states can coalesce into a single unit *rather* painlessly.

[Sumadinac]

As a european, I don't see USA disappear. It may decentralize more but it surely won't be the mighty empire it is today.

[bigvig]

So you see that as a good thing?

I personally don't see it as good or bad, but some people are definitely going to be irked by such prospects. But if they can't keep it at fertility replacement level, then its their problem.

[Power_serj]

He doesn't take into account global warming. The coastal areas of the United States, such as California, Florida, New York City, New Orleans, etc, will be under water while the people who survived the massive tsunamis will live virtually under ground to keep from the heat and radiation (there obviously will be no power because the sunspots that beam on the Earth will blow up nuclear power plants and cause nuclear fall out).

[delio]

In California, the state government in Sacramento is becomming irrelelvant. The metropolitan areas of SOCAL (LA, Orange Co. and San Diego) and Bay Area are setting thier own policies and agreements with other nations.

Both LAX and SFO airports have more direct international flights than IAD (Washington DC). Thus the "city states" of the West Coast are more connected globally than the federal government.

I envision that Vancouver BC, Seattle, Tacoma, and Portland will morph into a inter-urban economy of its own setting its own policies.

The areas that will suffer are the 'in-between' communities as we are seeing today in Fresno, California.


Today's purported lack of cohesion between the Federal government and geographical domain look like child play wan compare to say the late 1960s through early 1980s, and even back then the Federal government wasn't at critical risk of 'loosing' to state/regional authorities. The Federal government is even more powerful today than it was then - it would take much less effort to bring any renegade state or regional authority back to the fold.

As for the delegation of power within the states, that isn't really new. Chicago has almost always been extremely independent from Springfield. (some would argue Springfield is the politically subordinate one in their relations - that Chicago does more of the dictating). A similar thing - but to a lesser extent - is also true of the relationship between NYC and Albany, ever since that city became the capital of New York State (17xx?).

There's naturally lots of o uncertainty in regard to what will happen can happen in any country in the world fifty years going forward, but I will dare to say no U.S. state will manage to become more sovereign/autonomous from the Federal government than Quebec is from Ottawa today. No regional power center will even come as close to been independent from DC as Hong Kong or Macau (not to mention Taiwan) is from Beijing today.

[ren0312]

I personally don't see it as good or bad, but some people are definitely going to be irked by such prospects. But if they can't keep it at fertility replacement level, then its their problem.

Whites are near replacement level at 1.9, Latinos are at about 3 (this is higher than Mexico's which is at 2.4), while Blacks are at 2.2, the figure for Asians is most probably between the White and Black figures, based on data from ethnic Indians and Chinese from Western Europe, from these figures it is clear that the US is nowwhere near facing a demographic crisis, and as I said before considering that half of its territory is either semiarid, arid, or tundra, I really would not call the US underpopulated.

[bigvig]

Its close but replacement level is still 2.1 bro. The general idea is that whites are going to decrease in number relative to other races and subsequently will lose some voting power. Their below replacement fertility and decreasing population is also compounded by all those facts you mentioned, such as - legal and illegal immigration and higher birth rates among minority races.


Non-Hispanic whites would account for 47 percent of the total in 2050, it concluded.

http://www.*******.com/article/domesticNews/idUSN1110177520080212

Another study placed the projection 20 years earlier than that, at 2030.

[ren0312]

Its close but replacement level is still 2.1 bro. The general idea is that whites are going to decrease in number relative to other races and subsequently will lose some voting power. Their below replacement fertility and decreasing population is also compounded by all those facts you mentioned, such as - legal and illegal immigration and higher birth rates among minority races.



http://www.*******.com/article/domesticNews/idUSN1110177520080212

Another study placed the projection 20 years earlier than that, at 2030.

My point here is that most countries that are undergoing demographic crises have fertilty rates that are sharply below 2.1, such as Germany and Italy with a fertility rate of 1.3, if your country's fertlity rate is at 1.9 or 2.0, although that is still slightly below 2.1, that really is not that much a problem, and the decline in your working age population wll only be negligible, another trend is that the fertility rate for Whites has been rising steadily since the 1970's, although only at a modest pace, another fact is that what is commonly known as "American", culture is mostly Northern European in origin, which is expected to change as the fastest growing demographic group in the US comes from South America and Mexico, whose culture is mostly Southern European in origin, specifically from Iberia which is Catholic, the so called "American" work ethic which the older generations talk about is really none other than Max Weber's so called Protestant work ethic.

[delio]

Who is this guy? EDIT: I don't know if those examples of dissent he cited are actually valid. In fact, I can imagine that happening to the Eisenhower administration. Governor Orval Faubus activated the Arkansas Guard to prevent integration and that led to Eisenhower federalizing the Guard and overruling the governor. Bush had the authority to send troops to the border, why didn't he do it if the Governor of California refused? EDIT #2: I'll tell you why, because Bush doesn't give a **** about the border.


They were sent..

[vizant]

20 000 ?

http://www.veteranstoday.com/modules.php?name=News&file=article&sid=4082

ups, first time after 130 years usa deploy force inside country.....
Is this true?

[Atlantic Friend]

"All Empires shall perish", as Duroselle said, but...50 years ? Sounds a bit fast.

[FNG for LIFE]

I don't believe that Americans, the very patriotic, flag saluting bunch will ever accept a situation whereby the country is divided into smaller super states. To do so would erode the very traditional of these states and to some extent turn regions of American into the middle east; whereby some states are much more affluent than others and thereby have more of a say in the setting of local political agendas.

Further more the country needs central control so as to be able to co-ordinate its efforts to ensuring that the country moves forward together. If certain regions self-govern than the biggest problem would be an economic divided between states similar to the problem that the Germans faced after the collapse of the Berlin Wall.

The big challenge facing America in the next 100 years will be the problem of immigration. As more people seek to immigrate to the US, a greater burden will be placed on the current systems to cope with the influx.

We in the UK face the same problem with immigration and how best to care for a multinational population. The “free” services are very hard pressed to deal with such huge increases in demand and rumours are rife that the ability for people to claim these services will be limited to those that have been a resident for over 3 years.

Segregation based on one’s ability to communicate will be the new class system. Whether that will be against the white, English-speaking population remains to be seen.

[delio]

20 000 ?

http://www.veteranstoday.com/modules.php?name=News&file=article&sid=4082

ups, first time after 130 years usa deploy force inside country.....
Is this true?

First of all they U.S. has several times deployed troops within its borders. (If you include the National Guards it actually does pretty routinely -i.e. several times a year. If not, I think the last time would be in 2005 -- under the command of Gen. Honoré.) The next time they'll be deployed is during the coming Obama inaguration, only a few days from now:





US military mobilizes troops for inauguration


By Pauline Jelinek, The Associated Press

WASHINGTON - More than 11,000 U.S. troops will provide air defences and medical and other support in case of trouble during the January 20 presidential inauguration.

General Gene Renuart, commander in charge of domestic defence, says they're assigned because an event of this type demands preparedness. In a session with defence writers, Renuart said about 7,500 active duty military and roughly 4,000

National Guard troops will participate in the inauguration of President-elect Barack Obama.

They will include a contingent on alert to respond to a chemical attack.

Renuart said NORAD, the US-Canadian command responsible for defending North American airspace, will increase combat air patrols over the United States to guard against another September 11 type attack.

Others will perform ceremonial roles in parades, reviews and honour guards.

Renuart gave no figures but said a "big chunk" of both active and guard units will do ceremonial work.

The Secret Service, the agency that provides bodyguards for the president other selected officials, is in charge of inauguration security.

There also will be some 4,000 local police, 4,000 police from around the country and security agents from other government agencies.



http://img201.imageshack.us/img201/3787/84081098td0.jpg



http://img201.imageshack.us/img201/3919/84081239ys2.jpg

PLANNING WITH MILITARY PRECISION: Military personnel study a 15-metre-
square map of Washington, D.C. spread out on the floor of the D.C.
Armory. The map is being used to help plan the logistics of the military role
in the inauguration of Barack Obama as U.S. president on January 20.


What the U.S has not done in a pretty long time -and is now planning on doing - is something that is actually not the exception but the rule in virtually every other country the world over: earmark - on a permanent basis - ground troops to the organizational command whose main responsibility is domestic defense. That way, it'll always have troops contantly trained ready for whenever the Brits decide they're up to burning D.C. again ;-).

One interesting factoid about is that the U.S. closely partners with Canada when it comes to defending North America, so there may be Canadian troops well integrated to whatever the final layout may be. You could have Canadian troops training to deploy into the United States. You could even end up with Canadian officers working within American army units and directly commanding U.S. soldiers deployed within the United States.

[timetraveller]

To some they would view as a winning a battle that hasn't been fought ..

To others - It will be seen as who cares

To me - Pure specualtion , There is a load of what if's .. and if it did happend Anti US brigade will be partyin in the streets like never before and inturn US being subjected to the endless stream of jokes ..
Inturn The various states will become one again and strike out at those that mocked them ...

[Mackie]

The guy should read about "The holy roman empire".
The german kingdoms learned what it means to "independent".

Federal is a useful thing, giving people power and is focused on local problems.
But the interest of the US is to be a equal powerful nation like China.
So what Californias plan to manage this. Federal nuclear missiles? lol