U.S. at War With Beijing, Report

[2RHPZ]

U.S. at War With Beijing, Reports Cite China as No. 1 Threat

Charles R. Smith Thursday, June 17, 2004

The U.S. government has cited China as the No. 1 threat to global security for the second time in less than a month.
Both the Pentagon and the Commission on U.S-China Economic and Security Review cited Beijing as a major threat to U.S. national security. The two reports noted the growing military capability of China combined with its predatory economic policy is aimed directly at the United States.
The latest report released by the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission was approved by a "unanimous vote of all eleven Commissioners." According to the Commission China's co-operation on international security matters is "un-satisfactory."
The Commission examined in depth the extent of ongoing co-operation between China and the United States on traditional national security matters, most particularly China's assistance in re-solving the North Korea nuclear weapons crisis. The Commission believes that China's performance in this area to date has been unsatisfactory, and we are concerned that U.S. pressure on trade disputes and other unrelated aspects of the relationship may have been toned down by the administration as a concession for China's hoped-for cooperation on this and other vital security matters."
Economic War
According to the report, China is deliberately using economic warfare against America to seek a "competitive advantage over U.S. manufacturers."
"Economic fundamentals suggest that the Chinese yuan is undervalued, with a growing consensus of economists estimating the level of undervaluation to be anywhere from fifteen to forty percent. The Chinese government persistently intervenes in the foreign exchange market to keep its exchange rate pegged at 8.28 yuan per dollar, and through these actions appears to be manipulating its currency valuation," states the report.
The Commission also noted that China is violating its pledges to the World Trade Organization and that U.S. investors may actually be investing in the PLA military expansion.
"China has deliberately frustrated the effectiveness and debased the value of the WTO's TRM (Transitional Review Mechanism) which was intended to be a robust mechanism for assessing China's WTO compliance and for placing multilateral pressure on China to address compliance shortfalls."
"Without adequate information about Chinese firms trading in international capital markets, U.S. investors may be unwittingly pouring money into black box firms lacking basic corporate governance structures, as well as enterprises involved in activities harmful to U.S. security interests," noted the report.
Weapons for Oil
The Commission report also noted that China continues to proliferate advanced weapons to many of its client states including North Korea, Pakistan, and Iran. In addition, China now appears to be willing to trade weapons for oil.
"China's growing energy needs, linked to its rapidly expanding economy, are creating economic and security concerns for the United States. China's energy security policies are driving it into bilateral arrangements that undermine multilateral efforts to stabilize oil supplies and prices, and in some cases may involve dangerous weapons transfers," stated the report.
"China has sought energy cooperation with countries of concern to the United States, including Iran and Sudan, which are inaccessible by U.S. and other western firms. Some analysts have voiced suspicions that China may have offered WMD-related transfers as a component of some of its energy deals," noted the Commission.
New Weapons
The Commission report also revealed that Russia has sold China a more advanced version of the deadly SUNBURN (3M83 Moskit) cruise missile. Nikolay Shcherbakov, adviser to the director general of the Altair Naval Scientific Research Institute of Electronic Engineering, is reported as saying that "we are supplying China with new-generation equipment. We have been allowed to supply MOSKIT supersonic antiship cruise missiles with twice the range - 240km instead of the existing 120."
The Commission also noted a growing concern that China would use nuclear weapons to attack and defeat U.S. forces in the event of a war over Taiwan.
"Recognizing the possible involvement of the U.S. military, the current scholarship on China's R & D finds that PRC strategists believe that a superior navy could be defeated through the disabling of its space-based systems, as for example, by exo-atmospheric detonation of a nuclear warhead to generate an electromagnetic pulse," stated the report.
In addition, the Commission noted that China is pursuing an advanced laser weapon for use against Taiwanese and U.S. forces.
"It has recently been reported that China has successfully developed a laser cannon with a range of more than one hundred kilometers and might have already deployed it in Fujian Province facing Taiwan."
Shooting War in 2005
The Commission's report painted a deadly and growing picture of the Chinese threat with a possible conflict only a year away.
"The China Affairs Department of the Democratic Progressive Party published a report on China's basic military capabilities in which it said that Beijing had developed a 'sudden strike' strategy to attack Taiwan. This story discussed a scenario in which an attack would consist of an initial seven-minute shock and strike missile barrage that would paralyze Taiwan's command system, followed by seventeen minutes in which Taiwan's air space will be invaded by fighter jets. Within twenty-four hours of the strike, 258,000 Chinese troops could be deployed in Taiwan. China's fast-growing military modernization and expansion is aimed at a possible war between 2005 and 2010, according to the report," stated the Commission report.
In early June the Pentagon released a Congressionally mandated report on Chinese military developments. The Pentagon report outlined the double-digit increases in Chinese defense spending and major weapons purchases from Russia.
China currently is third in total defense spending, behind the U.S. and Russia, with nearly $100 billion a year now budgeted for the PLA. The Pentagon report noted that the PLA double-digit increases are expected to continue through 2010.
According to the report, the Chinese build-up of ballistic missiles has changed the balance of power in the Pacific, threatening to start a war over Taiwan. China currently has an estimated 550 short-range missiles opposite Taiwan.
"China most likely will be able to cause significant damage to all of Taiwan's airfields and quickly degrade Taiwan's ground based air-defenses and associated command and control through a combination of SRBMs (short range ballistic missiles), land-attack cruise missiles, special operation forces and other assets," stated the Pentagon report. The Pentagon report noted that China is increasing its long-range missile capability and is expected to expand its inventory to 30 such missiles by the end of 2005. The Pentagon anticipates the Chinese long-range nuclear missile force will exceed 60 before the end of the decade.
Nuclear War
The Pentagon report also warned that Chinese military strategists are considering the use of nuclear weapons against U.S. and Taiwanese forces.
According to the Pentagon, a nuclear weapon detonated at high altitude would create an "electromagnetic" shock wave that will disrupt U.S. communications and scramble sophisticated military computers. "PLA theorists who have become aware of these electromagnetic effects may have considered using a nuclear weapon as an unconventional attack option," stated the Pentagon report.
Chinese authorities have reacted explosively to the recent reports, especially over the U.S. commitment to Taiwan. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Liu Jianchao underscored the unstable nature of China's relationship by threatening to use military force to seize control of the tiny island nation.
According to the official PRC news Xinhua, China will never tolerate "Taiwan independence", neither will China allow anybody to split Taiwan from the motherland with any means.
"The Taiwan independence activities are the greatest threats to the peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait," stated Liu. The official PRC spokesman also asked the United States to stop selling advanced weapons to Taiwan under any pretenses and refrain from sending wrong signals to Taiwan.

[Red]

Thank God the US government at least acknowledge that China is a growing threat.The mistake lies at the feet of the Clinton administration which should not have facilitated China's entrance into the WTO.Just my opinion

[iflu]

Oh. I think that a country's strategy is to accurately evaluate the situation from which it can achieve the best benefit. We all learned history in school and the history tells us that the world is dominated by big countries. If those big guys can deal with each other farely and equally and have the attitude to be willing to solve problems, the world will be ok and will be in peace. But if big guys just want to fight each other, the whole world will be in disaster. So big countries should be responsible, not only responsible for its own present benefit but the longer-term benefit from which could be achieved from good relationship between them.
Even we take the present benefit, it is fool to against china. americans need chinese support on its global strategy right now to fight terrorism. If u get other's support today and the be against him tomorrow, what kind of person u r? u tell me!!! anyway chinese are not afraid of any threaten. i think the history has proved that at least twice. And most important of all, we do not really regard us as a threaten. both of us should realised the real and the only truth is to make your people happy, to give them a better living enviroment, to make them more wealthy. so an instructive way is to find a way that both of us can benefit. right???

Oh I have to edit this message. do not forget that british sent fleet thousands thousands miles away to a really tiny island. this is called property rights. taiwan is a part of china. so it is clever not to interfere other's business.

[vryhpyammoadded]

Thank God the US government at least acknowledge that China is a growing threat.The mistake lies at the feet of the Clinton administration which should not have facilitated China's entrance into the WTO.Just my opinion

I totally agree on all points! It will be years befor the full measure of Clintons mistakes concerning China come to light.
Don't get me wrong, I like the Chinese people and culture but I can't stand there governments buisness tactics or the blatant disregard of International law when it came to certian sanctioned governments and organizations. They've taken the concept of "bait and switch" to amazing hights, better than the US or anyone else ever did in the past ;)

Give them a few decades and look out. I just hope they can be convinced to play fair befor then. I doubt it though.

[J-10]

Oh. I think that a country's strategy is to accurately evaluate the situation from which it can achieve the best benefit. We all learned history in school and the history tells us that the world is dominated by big countries. If those big guys can deal with each other farely and equally and have the attitude to be willing to solve problems, the world will be ok and will be in peace. But if big guys just want to fight each other, the whole world will be in disaster. So big countries should be responsible, not only responsible for its own present benefit but the longer-term benefit from which could be achieved from good relationship between them.

Even we take the present benefit, it is fool to against china. americans need chinese support on its global strategy right now to fight terrorism. If u get other's support today and the be against him tomorrow, what kind of person u r? u tell me!!! anyway chinese are not afraid of any threaten. i think the history has proved that at least twice. And most important of all, we do not really regard us as a threaten. both of us should realised the real and the only truth is to make your people happy, to give them a better living enviroment, to make them more wealthy. so an instructive way is to find a way that both of us can benefit. right???

Oh I have to edit this message. do not forget that british sent fleet thousands thousands miles away to a really tiny island. this is called property rights. taiwan is a part of china. so it is clever not to interfere other's business.

Wise comment :D

[Khabbi]

On the way to China we could stop by Tibet woot

[Red]

Like i said,China is going to be a big problem and solutions need to be cooked up real quick cause the Chinesse government should not be trusted.I have said this thing for years and i am happy that people are seeing the light.China has no intention to deal fairly,they like all other countries want power and are willing to do whatever to get that.I forsee a situation where China will seek to undermine the interest of the US in every sphere of National Security.I have nothing against the people but the government is another story.Those who think China is turning into a place that would be more compatable with the West are mistaken in my opinion.China is a growing threat and the government better sit up and take note because it isn't only OBL who has his eyes on us.

[Ghostwolf]

Oh I have to edit this message. do not forget that british sent fleet thousands thousands miles away to a really tiny island. this is called property rights. taiwan is a part of china. so it is clever not to interfere other's business.

That depends which China are you referring to. Taiwan belongs to the ROC and not PRC. The name "China" is a commonly used name but it is politically incorrect. As for interfering "other's business", the U.S. and NATO have already interfered the Bosnian "Civil War", and U.S. and Coalition forces have also "interfered" Iraq's "domestic affair" with Kuwait, so it is hardly unlikely that the U.S. will not interfere this so-called "Chinese internal affair" when PRC decided to invade Taiwan.

[Tengu]

I couldn't care less about their build up if they had a civilized democratic governent like europe or the us. But that's not the case.
So i will be very happy when that missile shield is finished and and i will be happy to support taiwan with hardware when it comes to a war for independence.

[J-10]

Oh I have to edit this message. do not forget that british sent fleet thousands thousands miles away to a really tiny island. this is called property rights. taiwan is a part of china. so it is clever not to interfere other's business.

That depends which China are you referring to. Taiwan belongs to the ROC and not PRC. The name "China" is a commonly used name but it is politically incorrect. As for interfering "other's business", the U.S. and NATO have already interfered the Bosnian "Civil War", and U.S. and Coalition forces have also "interfered" Iraq's "domestic affair" with Kuwait, so it is hardly unlikely that the U.S. will not interfere this so-called "Chinese internal affair" when PRC decided to invade Taiwan.

You confuse two things. Kuwait is a member of UN, Taiwan is not(even though it may call itself anything as a Child Call himself a "King").

How many countries would prefer to involve in the "domestic affair" between the mainland and Taiwan island of China ? EU? Japan? Russia? It seems impossible.

[iflu]

That depends which China are you referring to. Taiwan belongs to the ROC and not PRC. The name "China" is a commonly used name but it is politically incorrect. As for interfering "other's business", the U.S. and NATO have already interfered the Bosnian "Civil War", and U.S. and Coalition forces have also "interfered" Iraq's "domestic affair" with Kuwait, so it is hardly unlikely that the U.S. will not interfere this so-called "Chinese internal affair" when PRC decided to invade Taiwan.

1. u admit taiwan is part of china while not an independent country.thx
2. i m not going to discuss any political mess, but as u have mentioned that i m politically incorrect, i think u must have learned where the capital of ROC was, and what government is now been acknowledged as the leggal government representing china. no no no, u do not need to reply these questions. everybody knows the answer.
3. since this forum is a military related forum, militarily i do not think that us or any coalition of us would fight war with china. I think they would prefer doing business with china to benefit both. militarily, china fought for n.korea and vn before and what do u expect what china's reaction would be if her direct benefit is threatened. we all learned history. BTW, There were massacres in bosnia and sth bad in iraq(to tell u the truth, i did not see hard proof, but now i would rather wish iraqi people can have better life in soon future) have u ever caculated the cost to fight with china? how many lifes will be lost? has china done sth terrible to us? is there any way to solve problem peacely? if u want war with china, u r so iresponsible even to ur own people. plz do not reply my post, and i would not reply u anymore.

[Midav]

Oh I have to edit this message. do not forget that british sent fleet thousands thousands miles away to a really tiny island. this is called property rights. taiwan is a part of china. so it is clever not to interfere other's business.

That depends which China are you referring to. Taiwan belongs to the ROC and not PRC. The name "China" is a commonly used name but it is politically incorrect. As for interfering "other's business", the U.S. and NATO have already interfered the Bosnian "Civil War", and U.S. and Coalition forces have also "interfered" Iraq's "domestic affair" with Kuwait, so it is hardly unlikely that the U.S. will not interfere this so-called "Chinese internal affair" when PRC decided to invade Taiwan.

You confuse two things. Kuwait is a member of UN, Taiwan is not(even though it may call itself anything as a Child Call himself a "King").

How many countries would prefer to involve in the "domestic affair" between the mainland and Taiwan island of China ? EU? Japan? Russia? It seems impossible.

You're right.

Seems odd that a lot of countries got involved in the North and South Korean civil war and how many were ready to jump at East and West German civil war.

Why did they bother, I wonder...

[bertfivesix]

When the time comes, Taiwan will be independent. Make no mistake - The greatest threat to peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait is China's continued aggression and provocation.

They are so keen on saving face, as well as absorbing a strong economy that they are blinded to the fact that Taiwanese people want to be independent. And have been virtually sovereign for nearly 6 decades. Not to mention the inherent political and ideological differences of the two cultures. China's denial of these basic FACTS is baffling and makes me question the intelligence of Chinese people as a whole. Including some Chinese members who have posted in this thread.

To those members I say this: What is the problem? Is it national pride? Sorry to hurt your feelings, but we don't want to be a part of China, and its oppressive Communist regime. Face the facts. Since the fall of martial law, an entire generation has grown up knowing nothing but democracy and freedom. Surprise, surprise, we like it! Taiwan WILL be independent and sovereign within 10 years, mark my words. Accept it and cooperate for the mutual benefit of all, or face annihilation at the hands of Taiwan and its allies.

And by the way, the only reason the UN doesn't recognize Taiwan's rightful sovereignty is PRC's position of power in the Security Council.

Free Taiwan

[Khabbi]

http://www.freetibet.org/

http://www.dharma-haven.org/tibetan/tibet-flag.jpg

[J-10]

I support any democracy progress in Taiwan, even in mainland.

But "Taiwan independence" is a dream of idiot as "Chechen independence"!

[bertfivesix]

Gee. State-run media really brainwashed you well.

Don't equate Taiwan to Chechnya, simply because your government persists in calling it a "rebel" province. I have yet to see any terrorist acts by Taiwan against China. The same can't be said for China. Think for yourself - don't just regurgitate what your brutal government spews.

So you support the democratic process in Taiwan? So if the people of Taiwan were to vote on a measure to declare complete independence and sovereignty, China would support it? Would China also support UN recognition in that event? Judging from China's actions during the recent Taiwanese presidential election, the answer is NO.

China is beyond reason. They rebuff Taiwan's offers of post-independence economic cooperation and free trade, all in the name of petulance.

Taiwanese freedom is as much about freedom from Chinese aggression and intimidation as political seperation. Have a look at the hundreds of missiles in Fujian province pointed at Taiwan, and tell me they aren't right in not feeling free.

[duck]

Great idea by the Pentagon to use a pro-independence Taiwanese party as a major source. But wouldn't Ahmad Chalabi also have some inside information on Chinas suspected WMD trade?

[J-10]

Sir, "democracy", "state sovereignty" are two different concept.

State sovereignty is a concept of non-negotiable, and all other things are negotiable.

[iflu]

J-10, i m wondering where did u find such a beatiful face and who is that MM? and BTW, be wise and do not waste ur time and energy on idiots. be wise to select right post to reply, or it will be ''playing piano to ox'' (u understand right?). only my suggestion.

[J-10]

Great idea by the Pentagon to use a pro-independence Taiwanese party as a major source.

That's right.

The Pentagon just want to get money from Taiwan by selling weapons, some "cold war" persons in U.S. want to slow the development of mainland, they think pro-independence Taiwanese party is a good tool.

[Ghostwolf]

1. u admit taiwan is part of china while not an independent country.thx


You have no idea what I am talking about, don't you? I am saying Taiwan belongs to the democratic and free "China" and it does not belong to the current totaltarian communist "China", so I'm talking about two different independent states here.

[J-10]

and BTW, be wise and do not waste ur time and energy on idiots. be wise to select right post to reply, or it will be ''playing piano to ox'' (u understand right?). only my suggestion.

You are right, thank you Sir! :D



J-10, i m wondering where did u find such a beatiful face and who is that MM?

My Avatar looks like my girl friend in life, a pretty girl indeed, so I could see "her" in any time. :D

[Ghostwolf]

You confuse two things. Kuwait is a member of UN, Taiwan is not(even though it may call itself anything as a Child Call himself a "King").


Who said ANYTHING about being member of UN?! As long as PRC a member of UN Security Council, it will continue abuse its power to oppress Taiwan diplomatically, or any other UN member state which supports Taiwan, and I called this diplomatic hooliganism.

[n4292936]

Im doing a paper on Asia-Pacific security threats at the moment and thought the following qoute was relevant to the discussion:

"Chinese analyses of "comprehensive national power," which takes into account the military, technological, educational, and economic bases of national strength, estimated in 2000 that China would catch up to the United States in 2043 if Chinese comprehensive national power grew at a rate of 6 percent per year and U.S. comprehensive national power grew at 3 percent per year."

Most analysts seem to agree that the challenge lies not in mitigating direct confrontation with the United States but in maintaining the status quo vis-a-vis the Taiwan issue. US security officials have already admitted that securing Taiwan form invasion has little do with America's own security and everything to do with reputation - that is, ensuring the credibility of the US presence in the Pacific and Southeast Asia (SEA) as a deterent to security threats. Those threats are most likely to come from China.
Already China has established Sig Int stations off the southern islands of Burma and in 1995 established a presence in the South China Sea, virtually bracketing Southeast Asia by its presence. The ASEAN countries are VERY keen to see that America stays engaged in the region so as to deter China from being overly aggressive. They are keen to see that SEA does not become to China what the Carribean has become to America (the analogy is ASEAN's own, not mine).

[oldsoak]

J-10, not all of us are foxes. ;)

[Ghostwolf]

J-10, i m wondering where did u find such a beatiful face and who is that MM? and BTW, be wise and do not waste ur time and energy on idiots. be wise to select right post to reply, or it will be ''playing piano to ox'' (u understand right?). only my suggestion.

So you are from Beijing as well, eh? No wonder you talk in the same way as J-10 does.

[iflu]

J-10, congratulations, u get a pretty girlfriend. i guess now u have found those KINDS of posts that u should not reply ever. ;)


Most analysts seem to agree that the challenge lies not in mitigating direct confrontation with the United States but in maintaining the status quo vis-a-vis the Taiwan issue. US security officials have already admitted that securing Taiwan form invasion has little do with America's own security and everything to do with reputation - that is, ensuring the credibility of the US presence in the Pacific and Southeast Asia (SEA) as a deterent to security threats. Those threats are most likely to come from China.
Already China has established Sig Int stations off the southern islands of Burma and in 1995 established a presence in the South China Sea, virtually bracketing Southeast Asia by its presence. The ASEAN countries are VERY keen to see that America stays engaged in the region so as to deter China from being overly aggressive. They are keen to see that SEA does not become to China what the Carribean has become to America (the analogy is ASEAN's own, not mine).

Yes n4292936, i think this is objective. If i were a citizen of SEA nations, i would be worry about a stronger neighbor sleeping beside me even if in fact he would not attack me. (but because of the asymmetric infomation, i would not realise this) in this case, i would prefer a stronger nation which is far away. it is natural.

but in pacific area, the relationship between china and us is key for stabilization of this area. and i m quite positive that these two nations would be more closer than ever in future.
1. the world enviroment has changed after the cold war and the present world is more unstable and need more cooperation between big countries than ever. in cold war period, countries were divided into two benefit groups, so within each group, it was relatively stable. and between two groups, two big guys knew they could not afford a big game coz both of them would be lossers. but after cold war, benefits are becoming diversifing and local conflicts have characterized this peorid. big nations will have to learn to cooperate. and this need time.
2. along with the democracy progress in china, us will try to benefit from this process while not give up her benefit by fighting with china.
3. u cant escape from conflicts but trying to solve them. this is especially important to big countries. btw, the best period between china and us was not in clinton administration but in regan administration i think.

[iflu]

J-10, i m wondering where did u find such a beatiful face and who is that MM? and BTW, be wise and do not waste ur time and energy on idiots. be wise to select right post to reply, or it will be ''playing piano to ox'' (u understand right?). only my suggestion.

So you are from Beijing as well, eh? No wonder you talk in the same way as J-10 does.

oh, my words: ''wish u have located me''. try it, not difficult. and btw, is it important where i m from?

[Operation Ivy]

I anit scared of china

[bertfivesix]

Yes, China and the US have the potential to become strong partners across the Pacific (even more so than the present). The same is true of Taiwan and China.

But do you know what's impeding that process? China's continued terrorist antagonism of the Taiwanese people. Leave us be. :slap:

[Durandal]

But "Taiwan independence" is a dream of idiot as "Chechen independence"!

Hate to break it to you, but Taiwan has been free and independent AND DEMOCRATIC for quite a while.

This did not happen two years ago, it started in 1949.

Comparing them to the Falklands is downright silly since...

A) The Falklands were owned by Britain and internationally recognized as being the owners.

B) Argentina illegaly took control of thoise islands through the use of military force, in the process, killing several British citizens.

C) The residents of the Falklands did not wish to be under Argentinian rule and had neither asked nor invited their occupation. Nor while they were occupied did they regain the same civil rights they had before the invasion...

Traveling thousands of miles to take back a possession was not only legal and warranted, but "just" as well.

[duck]

Would the Seventh Fleet have defended Hong Kong before 1997? The history of HK is not that different from Taiwan.

[Durandal]

Actually there is a LOT of difference...

Do a little bit more reading on the subject.

[Tane Angle]

Nice posts there, Durandal. Couldn't have explained the Falklands any better myself.

Regarding Hong Kong, an invasion would have secured the city in a matter of hours, there would have been no time for the Seventh Fleet to protect the city even if it was ordered to. Take a look at a map, then estimate the flying time by helicopter (let's say it's going somewhere around 125 MPH) from the Chinese border to the far end of the colony. Not much time. Taiwan, on the other hand, the distances and sizes involved are a bit larger.

Have a good one, and just some thoughts...

[duck]

Oh, just trying to create some more discussion. ;)

I remember doing some paper on the origins of the Pacific War and coming across several references on how Christian missionaries had a strong influence on American attitudes towards China in the 1930's. Even to the extent that it was deemed possible to have a Christian China as a close ally after the liberation from Japanese occupation. The shock of Mao's victory must have run very deep and in some ways might affect (neo)conservative thinking up to this day.

[duck]

Nice posts there, Durandal. Couldn't have explained the Falklands any better myself.

Regarding Hong Kong, an invasion would have secured the city in a matter of hours, there would have been no time for the Seventh Fleet to protect the city even if it was ordered to. Take a look at a map, then estimate the flying time by helicopter (let's say it's going somewhere around 125 MPH) from the Chinese border to the far end of the colony. Not much time. Taiwan, on the other hand, the distances and sizes involved are a bit larger.

Have a good one, and just some thoughts...

Sir, you are right on spot. Just some thoughts on the subject:

I've got some older friends in HK who moved there from the Mainland sometime after the war and found their luck. They must be one of the most schizophrenic people on the planet, being extremely proud of China's new power but at the same time protesting over free speech. ;)

Lots of Taiwanese managers are also moving to the Mainland, lured by high wages and an improving quality of life. Not to speak of countries like Indonesia where Chinese of all backgrounds are networking very effectively to run the economy...

[Stl. boy]

Not that i am terribly worried, but with our military strung out like it is, China is maybe the one country that could give us a problem. We need to get that missle defence system up and expand our military by any means if this were to happen. However, i still think a war with them is very unlikely. They need raw materials (especially oil), and no country (save maybe Iran) would provide them anything like that if they were to go to war. Just my thoughts.

[Tane Angle]

It's been awefully nice of North Korea to keep cool, that's for sure. As for China making war or not, my guess is that they would stockpile reserves before launching any major operations, but that's a lot to stockpile. Have a good one, and just some thoughts...

[East]

As mentioned earlier, china invaded tibet and took their freedoms. Thats just cause for a UN intervention in my mind. So i dont know how they can be seen as anything other than a threat.

[bertfivesix]

US security officials have already admitted that securing Taiwan form invasion has little do with America's own security and everything to do with reputation

Nah, it has more to do with the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979. It is a matter of long-standing US policy to maintain stability in the region, and it has already displayed its resolve to do so, during China's terrorist missile attacks of 1996. The US sent a carrier group to the Taiwan Strait.


taiwan is a part of china. so it is clever not to interfere other's business.

I guess it's understandable that the Communist Regime wouldn't fully educate its subjects on the actual history of Taiwan. According to the UN charter and a number of binding international treaties, Taiwan is not a part of the PRC, and its fate can only come as a matter of self-determination. So, I would say to China - STAY OUT OF OUR BUSINESS.


The Pentagon just want to get money from Taiwan by selling weapons

I'll again refer you to the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979, where it is mandated by Congress that the US sell Taiwan defensive weapons to maintain stability in the region. Guess they didn't teach you that at Communist Automaton school. rofl


iflu wrote:
and BTW, be wise and do not waste ur time and energy on idiots. be wise to select right post to reply, or it will be ''playing piano to ox'' (u understand right?). only my suggestion.


You are right, thank you Sir!

Well, we've got a couple of farm boys here! Here in the city though, we call that "trying to reason with ignorant Chinese using the facts, but then realizing they are too blinded by communist propaganda". Otherwise known as futility.


we do not really regard us as a threaten. both of us should realised the real and the only truth is to make your people happy, to give them a better living enviroment, to make them more wealthy. so an instructive way is to find a way that both of us can benefit. right???

Huh? If the Taiwanese people believed reunification with an oppressive communist regime would in any way benefit them, you'd think there'd be less of an opposition. If China's reasons are so pure and benevolent, WHY THE MISSILES? WHY THE THREATS? WHY THE TERRORISM? The Taiwanese people will under no circumstances accept subjugation by a tyrant nation with which it shares no historical bond.


Make no mistake - the impetus for China's recent exponential military growth is to provide a more effective counter to superior US military technology in the event of the invasion of Taiwan. The particular buildup of naval armament (submarines in particular) is in direct response to the US's reaction to the missile attacks in '96 - they realized they would need a strong naval force to blockade and invade the island while possibly deterring the involvement of the US Pacific Fleet.

[Durandal]

As mentioned earlier, china invaded tibet and took their freedoms. Thats just cause for a UN intervention in my mind. So i dont know how they can be seen as anything other than a threat.

Maybe they are Tane...

We know that they are increasing their purchase of potroleum products from the Middle East...one of the things that has attributed to high per barrel oil prices.

We also know they are purchasing metal...iron ore, steel, scrap steel, and coke in massive quantities from the Unted States.

Now both of these could be simply because China's economy is going through a massive overhaul AND leap forward...

...but...

These items are also what China lacks and cold very well be stockpiling them. The one thing they would NEED to stockpile is food, mainly grains, so the question (and I have not been able to find the data) is if grain purchases from Canada, the United States, and South America (include soy here since CHina purchases most of their soybeans from S.A.) have increased.

It worries me when a natiion begins to saber rattle while increasing purchasing of, what could be considered, "strategic" resources.

China has the "will" to do it, BUT as a nation, they current economy relies heavily on foreign money coming in. The desperity of wealth within the borders of China is such that China is still unable to support its own manufacturing.

Lastly, because their dollar is not "tagged" to the Euro, Pound, or Dollar they can afford a confrontation economically in some ways because they could and probably would change it to suit...and everyone that buys from China would simply have to grimace and suck it up.

Crazy things...

Ultimately I would be MUCH more supportive of China IF they had some sort of Democratic government. Which they do not. If may generalize, combining this with the xenophobia and racism that afflict the Chinese population, well, and you have a recipe for disaster.

Or not.

With China you never can tell...

[mi35d]

I've also said that China would be the major threat in the 21st century to anyone who would listen.

The size of the country and the population work against any US or Western threat. To paraphrase Mao, "Kill a million. Kill 100 million and we will still have soldiers to beat you."

If China wanted to take Taiwan tomorrow they could do it. Would the western powers be upset? Absolutely. Would we threaten? Of course. But with limited places to launch an attack to oust an invading Chinese army, Taiwan would regretfully remain in Red China's hands.

Let's be real. If they wanted to they could roll across the North Korean border under the pretense of "assisting" the economic and political situation. What would the west do? Nothing. We fought to a stalemate 50+ years ago when China had nothing more than infantry on the ground. Let alone a modern force with artillery, tanks and aircraft. (And hey - sattelite technology given as a gift from Bubba Bill Clinton. Oooo! How quickly Michael Moore and his ilk forget!)

[Durandal]

If China wanted to take Taiwan tomorrow they could do it. Would the western powers be upset? Absolutely. Would we threaten? Of course. But with limited places to launch an attack to oust an invading Chinese army, Taiwan would regretfully remain in Red China's hands.

The Western world has the capacity to kill HUNDREDS of MILLIONS of Chinses by simply refusing to ship anymore grain.

I do not think you FULLY understand just how dependent China is on us.

The question is, do we have the WILL to confront China?

[Omz222]

China has the "will" to do it, BUT as a nation, they current economy relies heavily on foreign money coming in. The desperity of wealth within the borders of China is such that China is still unable to support its own manufacturing.

I agree. Although definately a PLA invasion of the Taiwan island would obvious cause a major blow to the economy, the Chinese people have a will to fight. Historically we've been fighting wars to protect ourselves and fought against overwhelming odds in the Anti-Japanese War, Chinese Civil War (infantry with guns against tanks, artillery, airplanes) and later the Korean War (what we call "the War to Aid Korea and Resist the US"). With PLA's long term goal being "Liberating Taiwan", combined with the Chinese's will to fight and population, head counts doesn't really matters if there would really be a majopr war with someone. But still, let's just hope for a peaceful reunification.

[GrimmyRX]

US security officials have already admitted that securing Taiwan form invasion has little do with America's own security and everything to do with reputation

Nah, it has more to do with the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979. It is a matter of long-standing US policy to maintain stability in the region, and it has already displayed its resolve to do so, during China's terrorist missile attacks of 1996. The US sent a carrier group to the Taiwan Strait.


taiwan is a part of china. so it is clever not to interfere other's business.

I guess it's understandable that the Communist Regime wouldn't fully educate its subjects on the actual history of Taiwan. According to the UN charter and a number of binding international treaties, Taiwan is not a part of the PRC, and its fate can only come as a matter of self-determination. So, I would say to China - STAY OUT OF OUR BUSINESS.


The Pentagon just want to get money from Taiwan by selling weapons

I'll again refer you to the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979, where it is mandated by Congress that the US sell Taiwan defensive weapons to maintain stability in the region. Guess they didn't teach you that at Communist Automaton school. rofl


iflu wrote:
and BTW, be wise and do not waste ur time and energy on idiots. be wise to select right post to reply, or it will be ''playing piano to ox'' (u understand right?). only my suggestion.


You are right, thank you Sir!

Well, we've got a couple of farm boys here! Here in the city though, we call that "trying to reason with ignorant Chinese using the facts, but then realizing they are too blinded by communist propaganda". Otherwise known as futility.

Wow.. finally found a people more bigoted than mainland Chinese... Taiwanese Chinese, :lol: They hate everybody INCLUDING their own race rofl

(yeah yeah, I'm being fictitious, lol)

[wiking]

In life i have learned a few things. One of them is not to pick a fight with the biggest and thoughest guy i can find.

I know america thinks it's the greatest and best country in the world, but a relatively small war like Iraq and the ensuing occupation is allready straining the US military to it's limits.

With this in mind isn't it A BLOODY BAD IDEA TO PISS OF THE COUNTRY WITH THE LARGEST POPULATION IN THE WORLD.

I understand that Americans don't think like this, but China has the potentiality to beat you in war.

[Operation Ivy]

In life i have learned a few things. One of them is not to pick a fight with the biggest and thoughest guy i can find.

I know america thinks it's the greatest and best country in the world, but a relatively small war like Iraq and the ensuing occupation is allready straining the US military to it's limits.

With this in mind isn't it A BLOODY BAD IDEA TO PISS OF THE COUNTRY WITH THE LARGEST POPULATION IN THE WORLD.

I understand that Americans don't think like this, but China has the potentiality to beat you in war.

Mabe u should read Durandals post again

[Laworkerbee]

Imagine trying to invade Taiwan, think of D-day but 50 times worse, the Taiwanese have had 50 years to prepare for it, know the ranges and fields on fire intimately..it would be ugly

and I'd love to see the PLA try to supply any troops it might successfuly land on Taiwans shores. American submarines would make that a pretty impossible task, who needs a big American carrier task force exposed to the PRC's nukes.

[Durandal]

I understand that Americans don't think like this, but China has the potentiality to beat you in war.

Actually, this is completely false.

A) Population has nothing to do with a war against China because we would not use ground troops. We would not invade nor would we send in teams. Nor is population relevant when it comes to invading Taiwan since the number of troops China's relatively miserable amphibous fleet can put ashore (or if they were insane enough...which is possible...airdrop) is VERY finite.

B) Naval and air assests are to name of the game here. China is the invader, period. America would not start the conflict at all unless we knew beyond a reasonable doubt that China was going to be crossing within 48 hours. China, maybe have begun working on deep water assests, but they VERY few they have are still working up, fall short in the technology race, and have conscript, inexperienced crews with crap for forward looking radar platforms and sub-defence.

C) It is not just America. It would be Japan and Taiwan too. Japan cannot afford to have China step into Taiwan...there is a fair amount of trade with between Taiwan and Japan and unlike China, Taiwan does play by the rules and have a currency that is tagged to current economies (Euro, Pound, Dollar). It would also be safe to say that a fair number of growing nations would not like to see China in an aggressive stance either...all of whom have large populations...India and Indonesia are the first that come to mind.

D) Back to the original point of C...Taiwan and Japan (and of course the United States) have FAR superior air assets. China does not even compare. Even their newest fighter system is still getting the bugs worked out. Sure its better than anything they have currently, but they still have small numbers, unskilled pilots and nothign remotely resembling something that could say...perform an Alpha strike or protect their aviation assets. All you have to do is read Janes Defence Weekly to know that. :)

E) Which means it comes down to strategic weapons and tactics...China is nuke deficiant. It lacks enough satellites to recon. It does not control the water ways. It relies FAR to heavily on foreign suppliers to keep its population alive...alive...understand that. China nearly went the Somalia rout 40 years ago. Its population growth was going to hit a wall so hard that they were looking at a possible 50% population loss and a collapse of their society. The government had the will to make MASSIVE changes to a huge chunk of the population to avoid it...something that the United States, probably could never have done, but that is not the issue. What IS the issue is that China, with all its forced population control...abortions, sterilization, posted menstral cycles, etc, etc. has avoided the wall but not by much. China cannot produce enough food to feed its people. Period. So, a group of nations or the U.S. or Canada simply needs to stop sending them food...nor can China afford to ruin its oversease food supply by a nuclear strike.

In the end China is a paper tiger. It certainly has the will to do things, but ultimately any action, barring a world reluctant to respond, would be suicide. Keep in mind that it shares borders with India and Russia, both nations who, in times of termoil would take advantage of the situation should China suffer some sort of blow to its population as a result of China's actions.

My one single worry is that China will simply not care and do it anyways.

*poof*

There go 80 to 250 MILLION people maybe even double that.

China's only CIVILIZED choice is to let Taiwan be Taiwan. Which in the end is a good thing for all. China should focus on democratizing and building its economy. Because economically, when China stops playing games, the have the ability to not only reach parity with the United States but surpass it, because that is the TRUE value of China's population...its purchasing power. Unlock that and there will never need to be a war, ever again, because the rest of the world will be too busy building Sh*t for Chinese consumers.

Well, I didn;t mean to go in such a manner, but I did. I hope some of you actually read this lengthy rant. :)

[ZeroPositive]

all I got to say is Free Tibet.....
Also China isn't all that bad tbh, I have visited China a lot and they all only seem interested in money.... end of story

Doubt they would go to war in anyway...

[Omz222]

Right now despite the rapid growth, I'd agree with the fact that the PLA still does not have the resources, the military technology, organization, and training, to actually occupy Taiwan and face the blow of foreign powers (quite possibly the US, but if it's Japan I would imagine there would be a huge support by the population if Japan's really going to bomb PLA assets and such). From what I see, it seems that the PLA are still modernizing after Operation Desert Storm when it finally realized the potental and importance of modern warfare instead of the concept of "people's war" (a reminder of the Soviet threat of invasion by land). It just couldn't afford to have old MiG-21s armed with AA-2 Atolls anymore. However, as the technology might of the PLA is growing every year (just these few years there's already the FC-1 and the J-10 fighter jets, sales of some additional Russian destroyers with upgraded Moskit missiles, purchase of additional SAMs, end of development and start of the deployment of a BVR AAM and such), I would imagine that PLA would have a bigger possibility of being able to counter foreign influence.
About paradeop however, as I forgot the sources and my memory fo this is still vague, I would recall that the PLA would plan to drop airborne troops onto airfields and such after the huge missiles launches. The PLA paratoopers do also have a "glider" device for themselves to glide further, which could reduce the SAM threat to the airplane somehow.
About trainings however, while PLA's trainings are indeed still inferior to western ones (especially pilots), they are improving with both quality in the actual training and training facilities.

About resources and such, I do agree that China relies on international trade for many things, but we can still grow our own food. It's not like the sixties with greatly flawed policies anymore, and I don't think that even if food becomes very short, tens of millions of people would die from it. The Chinese government do keep a huge supply of grains and such, which is designed for a war situation when food becomes a problem. This also leads to why China has the "one child policy" -- if we have more children born each year and have the number double or even quadruple, then simply the much larger population will pose a problem and be counter-productive to not only the economic development now, but also mentioned -- food. Not that I greatly support the "one child policy", but it would greatly harm development if the population explodes from the 1-2 billion figure right now.

[iflu]

If China wanted to take Taiwan tomorrow they could do it. Would the western powers be upset? Absolutely. Would we threaten? Of course. But with limited places to launch an attack to oust an invading Chinese army, Taiwan would regretfully remain in Red China's hands.

The Western world has the capacity to kill HUNDREDS of MILLIONS of Chinses by simply refusing to ship anymore grain.

I do not think you FULLY understand just how dependent China is on us.

The question is, do we have the WILL to confront China?

i m sorry durandal, u know sth but not all. this thread is being getting sick, as we have seeing more and more ''f thisand f that''(forrest Gump) people here.

do u know that china EXPORTS grain????????????
have u checked the international price of wheat and rice????????????
do u know why china IMPORTS wheat and at the same time EXPORTS rice??????????????
do u know how many households buy western grain (mainly from canada)??????????
The question is, do u DARE to confront china to continue the nightmare in 50s and 60s, (and btw, at that time, china imported nothing from western nations)?????????????
OMG...

[Combat Wombat]

If Taiwan were to aquire defensive nukes it might be able to discourage a large scale invasion. It would just have to publisize them and China might have to back off.

[iflu]

B) Naval and air assests are to name of the game here. China is the invader, period. America would not start the conflict at all unless we knew beyond a reasonable doubt that China was going to be crossing within 48 hours. China, maybe have begun working on deep water assests, but they VERY few they have are still working up, fall short in the technology race, and have conscript, inexperienced crews with crap for forward looking radar platforms and sub-defence.

how do u know it? or ur imagination???can u give figures????



D) Back to the original point of C...Taiwan and Japan (and of course the United States) have FAR superior air assets. China does not even compare. Even their newest fighter system is still getting the bugs worked out. Sure its better than anything they have currently, but they still have small numbers, unskilled pilots and nothign remotely resembling something that could say...perform an Alpha strike or protect their aviation assets. All you have to do is read Janes Defence Weekly to know that. :)

the same as in 1950s and 1960s, us had the FAR superior air assetes. so what???????????THE WAR IS DETERMINED BY THE WILL


E) Which means it comes down to strategic weapons and tactics...China is nuke deficiant. It lacks enough satellites to recon.
nuke does not need any satellite coz its mass destructive. btw, satellite is used for accurate assault. and do u know how many satellites china has send to space for civil use???(those military satellites are classified) i tell u , over 15 .


It does not control the water ways.
to read some interesting history materials on conflicts between china and the 7th fleet, it helps to explain why us gave up to protect taiwanese navy any more.... u know, us tried but found that it was not a clever idea.


It relies FAR to heavily on foreign suppliers to keep its population alive...alive...understand that. China nearly went the Somalia rout 40 years ago. Its population growth was going to hit a wall so hard that they were looking at a possible 50% population loss and a collapse of their society. The government had the will to make MASSIVE changes to a huge chunk of the population to avoid it...something that the United States, probably could never have done, but that is not the issue. What IS the issue is that China, with all its forced population control...abortions, sterilization, posted menstral cycles, etc, etc. has avoided the wall but not by much. China cannot produce enough food to feed its people. Period. So, a group of nations or the U.S. or Canada simply needs to stop sending them food...nor can China afford to ruin its oversease food supply by a nuclear strike.

read my post up there and either u know nothing about china or u confused china with north korea.


In the end China is a paper tiger.
it is funny that in china chinese government called us a paper tiger around 30 years ago.

[vryhpyammoadded]

IMO: If Taiwan did nothing to its air force but maintenance and the mainland Chinese continued with there current build up and modernization of airpower then it will be about 2008ish before the PRC could effectively eliminate Taiwan’s air power. Taiwan knows this and they will try to maintain the defensive edge but with the PRC’s fantastic growth, who knows? When the PRC will be ready? Until then it would be stupid for the PRC to invade and they know that. Mistakes happen…

Watch what happens if the PRC successfully sucks up the last of the semiconductor production industry from Taiwan and most everyone else in the next 6 to 10 years.

Opinion again: The PRC is very good at being bellicose. It works quite well for getting your way when your opponents feel timid and it’s great for pulling off grand surprises after your timid opponents believe your crying wolf all the time.

Treat the PRC fairly, with firmness and strength and don’t let it take advantage of you and everything will be fine. But then again, the world is full of dumb businessmen and politicians, eyes blinded to the 1 billion+ market, who fall for the government’s bait and switch.
We need to be real smart with these guys because they are on the move to fill the cold war vacuum and secure resources we want too.

[Operation Ivy]

Some people here worry to much

[Durandal]

how do u know it? or ur imagination???


rofl

[Durandal]

...this thread is being getting sick...

Hey man, sorry to see you think that. We are, afterall, talking about China. You have a government that has waded hip deep inthe blood of your own people for the last 60 years.

If you want to support a government that is both corrupt and totalitarian...thats your issue.

I hate your government, sorry. I have spent the better part of my life seeing, visiting, and meeting the good parts of your nation while the bad stuff...stuff the rest of the world KNOWs goes on there remained hidden. I had friends that died 15 years ago...almost to this day...June 4 1989...

This is China...
http://www.christusrex.org/www1/sdc/p65f1.jpg

http://en.wikipedia.org/upload/d/d8/Tianasquare.jpg[/quote]

[O-3]

Its time we realize that China too is no more than a ROGUE(TERRORIST)nation.

[iflu]

...this thread is being getting sick...

Hey man, sorry to see you think that. We are, afterall, talking about China. You have a government that has waded hip deep inthe blood of your own people for the last 60 years.

If you want to support a government that is both corrupt and totalitarian...thats your issue.

I hate your government, sorry. I have spent the better part of my life seeing, visiting, and meeting the good parts of your nation while the bad stuff...stuff the rest of the world KNOWs goes on there remained hidden. I had friends that died 15 years ago...almost to this day...June 4 1989...

This is China...
[/quote]

ok man, if u check my previous posts, u will find that i try my best to avoid political ****. coz this is a military forum right? so i just try to analyze why there should not be a war between us and china and both us and china will be lossers from opposition. i reply ur previous posts because i think that u tried to analyze strategical situation. so pls do not bring political **** into this forum. and pls be cool.

[Durandal]

americans need chinese support on its global strategy right now to fight terrorism.

rofl

I completely missed this one...

Tell ya what STOP selling arms to places like Iran.

I know that is asking a lot.

[iflu]

americans need chinese support on its global strategy right now to fight terrorism.

rofl

I completely missed this one...

Tell ya what STOP selling arms to places like Iran.

I know that is asking a lot.

oh great!!!! i just out of another thread about 2 iranian tomcat pilots died of fighter crash. can u repeat ur question?????? who sold weapon to iran??? why only us can sell weapon to other nations while other countries cant??? what is ur problem?????

[Durandal]

so pls do not bring political **** into this forum. and pls be cool.

Politcs!? Politics is the root of armed conflict most of the time (even when under the guise of religion). This forum is filled with politics. Get used to it. The fact that so many of us come from different nations insures that politics and nationalism come into play. Suaully most of us keep in line but there are times...like now, when it is necessary.

China is not some beautiful land filled with happy tolerant people ruled by an open democratic form of government that gets its power fromt he people. It is a totalitarian dictatiorship that has NEVER known TRUE freedom. Its people are abused and lied to and the nation ratles its sowrd, not to protect others, but to dominate...much like that the Soviet Union of old.

China may have been named the Middle Kingdom, a name that drips with self-importance and ego (some of it justified) but its playing catch-up today. The United States and its allies in the region, including I may add, Taiwan, are a potent force. They may not have the numbers that China does but they have the advantage in technology, a remote location, and the control of the sea lanes and airspace around your nation.

Yet you persist to argue that his could not be. The mere idea is silly, uninformed and ludicrous. That is not an uninformed argument. Argue facts, do not try to belittle me for THAT is the INSULT. Not talking politics.

Not showing pictures of China's human rights ngihtmares. Sure its ugly, but it shows the reality of who the enemy REALLY is. Because you government IS the enemy and will continue to be such. It is the enemy of its own people. It is the enemy of democracy and free speech. It is the enemy of religion and faith. It is an enemy of land ownership and estates. It is the enemy of free trade and intellectual property rights. It is the enemy of so many things, all of which form the thinking of those that live outside your government's influence.

I have said this many times in this forum.

China has gotten an easy ride from the rest of the world.

Change the government and maybe things will be different.

Until that happens, screw 'em!

[GrimmyRX]

Edit: Whoops, wrong post, lol.

[bertfivesix]

I'll drink to that, Durandal.

woot

[ronin2172]

americans need chinese support on its global strategy right now to fight terrorism.

rofl

I completely missed this one...

Tell ya what STOP selling arms to places like Iran.

I know that is asking a lot.

oh great!!!! i just out of another thread about 2 iranian tomcat pilots died of fighter crash. can u repeat ur question?????? who sold weapon to iran??? why only us can sell weapon to other nations while other countries cant??? what is ur problem????? u would have a point except the US sold those F14s before the revolution....at the time Iran was run by the shah who was not the greatest person but was not a sponsor of terrorist groups and a potential threat to his neighbours.
The situation has changed now...the current iranian government is a radical supporter of terror. They have used chinese weapons (silkworm missles) in the past on international shipping, and they openly support radical groups such as hizbollah, yet china continues to deal with them...is that the actions of a responsible government?

[O-3]

Rogue states like CHINA must be swiftly and severely dealt with.

[Mongrel]

Durandal wrote: " Population has nothing to do with a war against China because we would not use ground troops."

1 million trained and equiped troops is nothing to scoff at dude.
They could flood in and do allot of damage.

I have relitives that saw first hand in Korea what a pissed off mobilized Chinese army looks like. It is very ugly, and that was back many decades ago...I'm sure they have had enogh time to wet dream all sorts of ideas about how to get Taiwan, and other places.

They have some advantages..
In China Life is considered cheap.
Troops go were they are told.
Their hand to hand fighting is pretty damn good.
They are brain washed from birth to the party ideals.
And yes most are hungry, and desperate ie.. motivated.
Finally there is a freeking Million of them!

I seriously doubt that nothing short of a nuke (or a bunch of nukes) would make a dent, and that is a whole other can'o worms.
I hope they fizzle out from the inside.

Cheers!
M.

[Ghostwolf]

You are the man Durandal and for that I salute you. http://smileys.smileycentral.com/cat/23/23_28_100.gif

http://smileys.smileycentral.com/cat/4/4_17_209.gif

[oldsoak]

If anyonewants to go have a punch up with the PRC, crack on. I'll be at the bar when your done.

[Omz222]

I have relitives that saw first hand in Korea what a pissed off mobilized Chinese army looks like. It is very ugly, and that was back many decades ago...I'm sure they have had enogh time to wet dream all sorts of ideas about how to get Taiwan, and other places.
That's only the People's Volunteer Army at that moment, which was essentially a shipload of volunteers wanting to fight against the Americans in the name of communism (I have family members who fought in PVA). While they got much inferior technologies, they do have great determination however. I don't know what it's like right now in the PLA, but I can tell you that there are a good amount of support from the normal population, despite the government's "political" policy right now.

[2RHPZ]

Taiwan military jets to practice freeway landings

Taiwan said Monday that its air force will practice emergency landing on a freeway for the first time in 25 years amid renewed tension in relations with China.

The scenario of the drill is that Taiwan's airports may be destroyed should war break out with China, and that freeways may be used for emergency landings.

Defense Minister Lee Jye said the drills would take place between late July and early August. Several kilometers (miles) of the freeway have been repaired and a section will be shut down for half a day, defense ministry sources said.

Chief of the General Staff General Li Tien-yu, who was one of the two pilots who made the unprecedented freeway landing 25 years ago, said "it is necessary if Taiwan is to beef up national defense."

Analysts said the planned drill highlighted the growing tensions between Taipei and Beijing since President Chen Shui-bian from the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party was re-elected in March for a second term.

"This (drill) must have something to do with the judgement of the enemy situation," Holmes Liao, a researcher of non-profit think-tank Taiwan Research Institute's the Division of Strategic and International Studies, told AFP.

"China's intention to attack Taiwan has always been there," he said, referring to Beijing's threat to invade should the island declare formal independence.

But Taiwan's military "was alarmed by the People's Liberation Army's fast improvement in their blitz capabilities over the past few years," he said.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
One opinion about that which I have found:


his has nothing to do with the reality of this situation but in a novel I read by a techno-thriller guy called Dale Brown the scenario is a war between China and Taiwan.

In the book most of the airfields in Taiwan are destroyed. The US sends a specially modified B-52 (called a mega-fortress) to help them out. After wiping out most of southern China this plane has to land somewhere to refuel. The Taiwanese have this super-secret base dug into a cliff-face with a cave entrance and that waswhere the B-52 landed!

If true that would have been one hairy landing!

CAG 147

[wiking]

Rogue states like CHINA must be swiftly and severely dealt with.


People with attiutdes like this is just bloody stupid.
I know he dosen't represent everyone, but alot of ppl here and in general think like this.

So, mate, would you like to give us an idea of HOW you would like to 'swiftly and severly' deal with China.

And if you can't, stop posting stupid, ignorant sentences.
Because it's just a waste of time for you to write it, and for us to read it.

[Mongrel]

Yah wiking I don't get some of the people here. :cantbeli:

Another motivator is newly taken land is often up for grabs by the population..often handed out by an internal lottery system of sorts.

See Tibet for example.. the murdered monks weren't even cleaned out of the temples, before Han Chinese where imported by mass transport to repopulate the country side...they even brought a long a 'fake' lama to take over the job of the Dali lama..Some how I don't think they are fooling the Tibetain people.

Taiwan has been a royal thorn in the side since day one for China.
A real slap in the face to Mao and his supporters, and Japan has always been on the menu.

Personally I can't see a military operation doing much against China. Anyone that thinks that a "shock and awe" revisit would work needs to stop sniffing glue.

Also you can be sure North Korea, and other major, and minor despots would join in on the pillage, and land grab across Asia (East and West). Lets hope it doesn't come to all that as I don't know how it could be stopped.

Cheers!
M.

[GrimmyRX]

Yah wiking I don't get some of the people here. :cantbeli:

Another motivator is newly taken land is often up for grabs by the population..often handed out by an internal lottery system of sorts.

See Tibet for example.. the murdered monks weren't even cleaned out of the temples, before Han Chinese where imported by mass transport to repopulate the country side...they even brought a long a 'fake' lama to take over the job of the Dali lama..Some how I don't think they are fooling the Tibetain people.

Taiwan has been a royal thorn in the side since day one for China.
A real slap in the face to Mao and his supporters, and Japan has always been on the menu.

Personally I can't see a military operation doing much against China. Anyone that thinks that a "shock and awe" revisit would work needs to stop sniffing glue.

Also you can be sure North Korea, and other major, and minor despots would join in on the pillage, and land grab across Asia (East and West). Lets hope it doesn't come to all that as I don't know how it could be stopped.

Cheers!
M.

Shock and Awe on China? Oh, that'd be a fun idea. Unless someone wanted to start throwing around Nuclears, you'd long run out of missiles before they ran out of bases, supplies, people, etc.

China isn't Iraq and shouldn't be treated as such.

[Durandal]

So, mate, would you like to give us an idea of HOW you would like to 'swiftly and severly' deal with China.

Kick their asses out of the WTO. Remove most favored nation status. Remove American politicians from power that EVER receive a dime from the Chinese (and trust me, they do). Sell Taiwan some of the frigates we are disarming, base a wing or two of F-16s and a couple F-117s. Sell Taiwan a couple Patriot batteries. Send two or three carrier groups into the Pacific and Indian Oceans and three or four LA class subs.

Then and most importantly, slap a couple more trade restrictions and a couple tarrifs on goods.

Then let Taiwan know that they will be recognized as an independent nation (since the U.S. officially does not) should the wish to become one.

All without firing a shot.

That would be an almighty bitch slap for certain...

Then see what happens next.


rofl

Of course, all of this would amount to attacking China anyways...at least to the PRC government.

[OB Kenobi]

Next person to say "nuke __________" wins the Special Olympics gold medal.

http://www.ancoraimparo.net/license/dumbass.gif

[Mongrel]

Durandal: "Kick their asses out of the WTO. Remove most favored nation status."

Mongrel:Wouldn't effect them, they would just tighten there belts, and get more bitter towards the west.

D: "Remove American politicians from power that EVER receive a dime from the Chinese (and trust me, they do)."

M: Good move, but how would you do this? The fish rots from the head down.

D: "Sell Taiwan some of the frigates we are disarming, base a wing or two of F-16s and a couple F-117s. Sell Taiwan a couple Patriot batteries."

M: So you mean prop the Taiwanese up as yet another military guard dog for the US to fight Commies? Seen this before. Also I doubt that they could afford it.

D: Send two or three carrier groups into the Pacific and Indian Oceans and three or four LA class subs.

M: Thats nice but what if they move West? Also if they got past that force you describe the Westcoast of Canada is pretty much an open door dude...NO Full time Army in BC, very small Navy, Very small Airforce.

M: And If their past military action is anything to go by it would be on multiple fronts..a million dedicated, equiped troops gives yah lots of pieces on the game board.

D: Then and most importantly, slap a couple more trade restrictions and a couple tarrifs on goods.

M: And like in Iraq with the 'sanctions' they would just warm up the military machine..starve a few million peasants, and get read to expand there territory out of desperation, and feel totaly justifide in doing so.

M:In those sorts of governmet the political machine is pretty insulated, and a high priority. They may be Communist, but they are 'Mao Communists'...only the people would suffer, and then be told "see its the fault of those evil capitalists".

D:Then let Taiwan know that they will be recognized as an independent nation (since the U.S. officially does not) should the wish to become one.

M: Seen this before also, and not sure if this alone would be enogh to stop the Chinese landing crafts from reaching Taiwans beaches.

D:All without firing a shot.

M: I hope you right, but somehow I think not.

BTW: OBI yah slay me! rofl
Cheers!
M.

[Durandal]

Mongrel:Wouldn't effect them, they would just tighten there belts, and get more bitter towards the west.

Cry me a river...


M: Good move, but how would you do this? The fish rots from the head down.

This would require a democratic uprising within the United States itself via voting. It can be done one way or another, the question is...who is on the take right now and can we politically sack them.


So you mean prop the Taiwanese up as yet another military guard dog for the US to fight Commies? Seen this before. Also I doubt that they could afford it.

Huh? China is not a communist state as we know it. it is a totalitarian one for certain. Taiwan is democratic republic. Its people determine its path via a democratic process. Should Taiwan request such aid, we should give it to them. As a democratic nation we should always support other democratic nations against tyranny. If you cannot understand this, living in Canada, then this is a moot conversation.


Thats nice but what if they move West? Also if they got past that force you describe the Westcoast of Canada is pretty much an open door dude...NO Full time Army in BC, very small Navy, Very small Airforce.

Why would they move into Afghanistan? That is the country that lies directly west. We are talking about Taiwan. China hardly has the capacity to move the troops necessary to take Taiwan. How in the hell could the get to British Columbia?!!! Keep it on topic.


And If their past military action is anything to go by it would be on multiple fronts..a million dedicated, equiped troops gives yah lots of pieces on the game board.

Yeah which previous military experience is that? Running down students in Bejing 15 years ago? Are you talking about the hundreds of thousands that perished in North Korea, or the border incidents with Vietnam, Russia, and India?


And like in Iraq with the 'sanctions' they would just warm up the military machine..starve a few million peasants, and get read to expand there territory out of desperation, and feel totaly justifide in doing so.

I could care less what they feel. If the Chinese people suffer then they need to do something about it. You know, like overthrow an ineffective government, revolt, win their freedom...it would be bloody but that is the price to be paid. If China decides to do a land grab, ti gets the "hand" chopped off. Trust me, the world is quite capable of doing that.


In those sorts of governmet the political machine is pretty insulated, and a high priority. They may be Communist, but they are 'Mao Communists'...only the people would suffer, and then be told "see its the fault of those evil capitalists".

Sorry, this does not work. they are getting a taste of freedom and capitalism. Chinese have NEVER been anti-capitalists...even if the government was at one point.


Seen this before also, and not sure if this alone would be enogh to stop the Chinese landing crafts from reaching Taiwans beaches.

Huh? Come on man. This is modern warfare. Send a landing craft. What is going to support it? that supper high-tech airforce composed of 1960s and 70s hardware. Sure the Chinese have SOME modern aircraft, but not a superior number of them. And their navy, CURRENTLY, is a joke.


I hope you right, but somehow I think not.

I AM right, because I was talking about the U.S. and Taiwan and any other nation that participated. China could fire a shot the moment they felt "threatened".


OBI yah slay me! rofl

rofl rofl rofl rofl You take the cake man. Everything had a logic purpose behind it. To place pressure on China without going nuclear or simply applying military conventional pressure. Most have been used before by previous administrations in the United States, sometimes with fairly positive results.

[Mongrel]

Durandal: "This would require a democratic uprising within the United States itself via voting. It can be done one way or another, the question is...who is on the take right now and can we politically sack them. "

M: Oh I see an "uprising". :roll:

D: "Yeah which previous military experience is that?"

M: Try about 5000 years of history...read a book.

D: "Sorry, this does not work. they are getting a taste of freedom and capitalism. Chinese have NEVER been anti-capitalists...even if the government was at one point."

M: I'll be more specific..anti west. Also their version of wealth is much diffrent...the state can take what it wants at any time, and you have to give it up..period. You work for the state. Don't mix up former Hong Kong with all of China they are very diffrent groups..or where anyway. That's why so many left Hong Kong before the big hand off from British to Chinese ownership a few years back.

D: "Huh? China is not a communist state as we know it. it is a totalitarian one for certain. Taiwan is democratic republic. Its people determine its path via a democratic process. Should Taiwan request such aid, we should give it to them. As a democratic nation we should always support other democratic nations against tyranny. If you cannot understand this, living in Canada, then this is a moot conversation."

M: What are you talking about? I have never heard anything about China that doesn't label it Communist...totalitarianism creeps in afterwards, but it is still communist. And yah Taiwan is in a bad spot.

M: BTW I do understand the system of democratic states, and how they related to each other, and I'm really intrested in you telling me how things work in Canada.

D: "You take the cake man. Everything had a logic purpose behind it. To place pressure on China without going nuclear or simply applying military conventional pressure. Most have been used before by previous administrations in the United States, sometimes with fairly positive results.Back to top"

M: Logical yes if you are war monger, and still subjective to the info or lack of info available. You really want the US and others to goto war with China over a small island in the pacific...that has no oil? :petting:

BTW: I took nobodys cake! But its been a slice of something. p-)
Cheers!
M.

[Durandal]

M: Try about 5000 years of history...read a book.

You are lecturing the wrong person on this one you dumbass. 5000 years of cultural history means little to a nation that is 55 years old. Where do you get this crap...

I suggest you take the advice you so readily hand to others and read something other than "The Ancient Art of War".

[Durandal]

duplicate...

[Durandal]

duplicate...

[Red]

wow,i am surprised that this thread has gotten this far.Well this is my take on this thing-The USA had the upper hand prior to China's entrance into the WTO but Clinton blew that away.Right now,pandoras box has been open and it cant be shut.If the US and China were to fight a conventional war,it would require the US to institute a draft policy because the US lags behind in manpower.CHina has the capabilities to seriously mess around with US space based assets wich would negate most of the technological advantage the US has.The next option would be nuclear weapons,now i don't know if the US will be willing to use theirs but i know that China will not hesitate in nuking Taiwan.The solution to this problem would be for both parties to maintain the status quo.I once wrote a paper on how American politicians have sold us out to the highest bidders,look at the US now we have now become a nation of high imports and not so high exports when compared relative to one another.The US needs to review the ongoing business relationship it has with China.

[Omz222]

The next option would be nuclear weapons,now i don't know if the US will be willing to use theirs but i know that China will not hesitate in nuking Taiwan.
I don't think so myself. Not only that the use of nuclear weapons will get the US to turn their nuclear warheads on China itself, but the PLA's goal is to occupy the island, not to destroy it. Nuking it completely defies the goal of such military operation.

[n4292936]

M: Try about 5000 years of history...read a book.

You are lecturing the wrong person on this one you dumbass. 5000 years of cultural history means little to a nation that is 55 years old. Where do you get this crap...

I suggest you take the advice you so readily hand to others and read something other than "The Ancient Art of War".

...jumping into the middle of an argument can be bad but here it is anyway:

Durandal, Id have to disagree with your last statement about history meaning little to a nation whose gov is as young as China's.
One of the principal sentiments driving current thoughts in China is the involable sovereignty of their nation, the absolute integrity of their provinces, and their rise in power - economicly and militarily.
The basis for those sentiments stems partly from the "century of shame" as it is known in China, starting around the 1840 during the opium wars and ending in 1949. They have a rabid preoccupation with and chip on their shoulder about the colonial domination that they were subjected to and the invasion of the Japanese during WW2. It is partly those sentiments that led to the annexation of Tibet, the quick reacquisition of Hainan Island, and the termination of the Hong Kond lease in 1997 when it wasnt a financially sound move to make - its is also a driving factor behind their insistence that Taiwan re-unites with the mainland. China's history, at least that which goes back to colonial intereference, does in fact have an impact on moder Chinese strategic thinking. Moreover, the philosophies dating back to confucism and the Art of War, among several others, play a part in their thinking. Nations may change methods of governance, but they do not escape their history.

[Midav]

I don't believe China is willing to use its nukes as liberally as some may suggest.

Yeah, China has some hothead generals; we've had ours in the past as well, LeMay being one.

I'm sure they realize if they (China) use one, be it against Taiwan, a carrier, a US city or whatnot, China will be lit up like july 4th on steroids.

[n4292936]

CHina has the capabilities to seriously mess around with US space based assets wich would negate most of the technological advantage the US has.
One of the proposals on how China may do this is an exo-atmospheric burst from a nuclear warhead which will create an EMP pulse strong enough to knock out geostationary satellites covering China and the Straight. It has also been suggested that if they were to to use nuclear devices on Taiwan it would be in the form of an atmospheric burst to know out their comms, command and control, and other vital warfighting electronics.
regarding conventional wars... our technological superiority is such that we can acheive much more than parity with the PLA despite their relative numerical superiority. In most projected war scenarios, it ussually involves fighting in the Taiwan straight anyway, not a conventional attack on the mainland - that would be bad juju for all concerned indeed.

[Red]

CHina has the capabilities to seriously mess around with US space based assets wich would negate most of the technological advantage the US has.
One of the proposals on how China may do this is an exo-atmospheric burst from a nuclear warhead which will create an EMP pulse strong enough to knock out geostationary satellites covering China and the Straight. It has also been suggested that if they were to to use nuclear devices on Taiwan it would be in the form of an atmospheric burst to know out their comms, command and control, and other vital warfighting electronics.
regarding conventional wars... our technological superiority is such that we can acheive much more than parity with the PLA despite their relative numerical superiority. In most projected war scenarios, it ussually involves fighting in the Taiwan straight anyway, not a conventional attack on the mainland - that would be bad juju for all concerned indeed.
But you also have to take into account the fact that if the Chinese cant cope with you in a conventional fight,they will switch to unconvetional tactics, circa korea.All i am saying is that at this point in time there is no clear cut way to deal with the threat posed by China,we had the opportunity to have done something but we did not seize the opportunity.I agree with your analysis about the reasons for their aggresive expansion but that still does not justify what they did in Tibet or what they are doing to Taiwan.A lot of politicians the world over have forgotten that a government is supposed to be subject to the people not the other way around.

[Midav]

Good point, yet how unconventional could they go in Taiwan?

[Durandal]

...jumping into the middle of an argument can be bad but here it is anyway...

Consider the context of the statement please...

My comment was dealing with conventional abilities of the PLA and the supporting air and naval forces to take Taiwan. I understand the point you are making and agree with it (it is also one of the reasons why I mistrust China...as a nation).

Geo-political realities are one thing. Theoretical outcomes of convention military operations are another.

The question is, what happens when the world and/or the United States tells China enough is enough?

That is what I am discussing on this specific topic and 5000 years means little.

[Stl. boy]

I believe they would nuke Tiawan. That may not be their first move, but they feel that if they cant have it, no one will and would not have a problem with doing it.

[Red]

...jumping into the middle of an argument can be bad but here it is anyway...

Consider the context of the statement please...

My comment was dealing with conventional abilities of the PLA and the supporting air and naval forces to take Taiwan. I understand the point you are making and agree with it (it is also one of the reasons why I mistrust China...as a nation).

Geo-political realities are one thing. Theoretical outcomes of convention military operations are another.

The question is, what happens when the world and/or the United States tells China enough is enough?

That is what I am discussing on this specific topic and 5000 years means little.You raised an interesting point.Would the traditional allies join the USA if China were to make a move on Taiwan?I have noticied some European nations have begun to cozy up to China,so if push comes to shove would these nations put aside their monetary considerations and stand side by side with the US?i don't think i know the answer to that question but if i was to guess i would say no,they would not stand with us.I may be wrong so please give me your take on it.

[Mongrel]

Durandal: "That is what I am discussing on this specific topic and 5000 years means little."

M: Dude Yah can't overlook the history of a people when those people hold their history so close to their hearts, to the point they are hyper superstitious about many things, and overlooking it can lead you into big trouble quick...which is not good in negotiation or tactics in combat.

"know your enemy" (or in this case potential enemy)

Cheers!
M.

[n4292936]

...jumping into the middle of an argument can be bad but here it is anyway...

Consider the context of the statement please...

My comment was dealing with conventional abilities of the PLA and the supporting air and naval forces to take Taiwan. I understand the point you are making and agree with it (it is also one of the reasons why I mistrust China...as a nation).

Geo-political realities are one thing. Theoretical outcomes of convention military operations are another.

The question is, what happens when the world and/or the United States tells China enough is enough?

That is what I am discussing on this specific topic and 5000 years means little.You raised an interesting point.Would the traditional allies join the USA if China were to make a move on Taiwan?I have noticied some European nations have begun to cozy up to China,so if push comes to shove would these nations put aside their monetary considerations and stand side by side with the US?i don't think i know the answer to that question but if i was to guess i would say no,they would not stand with us.I may be wrong so please give me your take on it.


No nation in SEA would stand with the US, even though they are wary of the growing Chinese influence in the region. Australia would be cautious indeed and would do everything in its power to prevent war but would probably join in the end. Europe does not have the same security relationships that the US and, from a political point of view, has no obligation to fight alongside the US. For the time being, if it came to war in the near future I am confident the US would go it alone. There have even been suggestions that we (the US) would ask the Taiwanese defence forces to stand aside to limit the chaos of war. I am likewise confident that they would not want to see Japan or SK get involved. The implications of Japanse involvement would be very grave.
In the long term taiwan will most likely join China willingly so hopefully this discussion is will be irrelevant

[Red]

...jumping into the middle of an argument can be bad but here it is anyway...

Consider the context of the statement please...

My comment was dealing with conventional abilities of the PLA and the supporting air and naval forces to take Taiwan. I understand the point you are making and agree with it (it is also one of the reasons why I mistrust China...as a nation).

Geo-political realities are one thing. Theoretical outcomes of convention military operations are another.

The question is, what happens when the world and/or the United States tells China enough is enough?

That is what I am discussing on this specific topic and 5000 years means little.You raised an interesting point.Would the traditional allies join the USA if China were to make a move on Taiwan?I have noticied some European nations have begun to cozy up to China,so if push comes to shove would these nations put aside their monetary considerations and stand side by side with the US?i don't think i know the answer to that question but if i was to guess i would say no,they would not stand with us.I may be wrong so please give me your take on it.


No nation in SEA would stand with the US, even though they are wary of the growing Chinese influence in the region. Australia would be cautious indeed and would do everything in its power to prevent war but would probably join in the end. Europe does not have the same security relationships that the US and, from a political point of view, has no obligation to fight alongside the US. For the time being, if it came to war in the near future I am confident the US would go it alone. There have even been suggestions that we (the US) would ask the Taiwanese defence forces to stand aside to limit the chaos of war. I am likewise confident that they would not want to see Japan or SK get involved. The implications of Japanse involvement would be very grave.
In the long term taiwan will most likely join China willingly so hopefully this discussion is will be irrelevant
It is so sad,the will of the people of Taiwan count for nothing.The are in this wheter they like it or not.What a way to live.I really and trully hate politicians.

[Omz222]

I believe they would nuke Tiawan. That may not be their first move, but they feel that if they cant have it, no one will and would not have a problem with doing it.
Still, why in the world would they nuke Taiwan when:

1. Their goal is to invade and occupy it, under the "public" name of "liberation";
2. Their goal is to follow what the government wants -- that is, to gain the territory back;
3. They would lose massive amount of support from the population since the population does not want to see what they consider as parto f their own territory nuked under the name of liberation;
4. They would gain another batch of massive disapproval from the international community;
and finally 5. That means they would violate their use of nuclear weapons as a deterrent and get American warheads above Chinese territory.

[Red]

I believe they would nuke Tiawan. That may not be their first move, but they feel that if they cant have it, no one will and would not have a problem with doing it.
Still, why in the world would they nuke Taiwan when:

1. Their goal is to invade and occupy it, under the "public" name of "liberation";
2. Their goal is to follow what the government wants -- that is, to gain the territory back;
3. They would lose massive amount of support from the population since the population does not want to see what they consider as parto f their own territory nuked under the name of liberation;
4. They would gain another batch of massive disapproval from the international community;
and finally 5. That means they would violate their use of nuclear weapons as a deterrent and get American warheads above Chinese territory.
So what do you think they would do if they are faced with defeat at the hands of a joint American-Taiwanese force?say sorry and walk away?

[Red]

MAD redux

[n4292936]

It is so sad,the will of the people of Taiwan count for nothing.The are in this wheter they like it or not.What a way to live.I really and trully hate politicians.
Unfortunately, to the Chinese, the opinions of the public count for little, or at least are perceived as things which may be shaped and moulded to suit their purposes via propoganda. Current polls in Taiwan indicate an unwillingness to unite with China in its present state( ie under communism). Im not sure what they say about a plebicite on the issue of independence but the politicians have been wise enough to avoid that provacative move. I know what you're saying about politicians but they can sometimes have it hard. They have to make choices about things which they are much better informed about than the public (causes, consequences, incentives, dicincentives etc etc), and because of this often look like they have made cowardly decisions. Some of them are just worms but there are plenty who are genuinely working in the best interest of their countries. i think Carter and Reagan are two examples of the latter - though I disagree with some of the results.

[Omz222]

So what do you think they would do if they are faced with defeat at the hands of a joint American-Taiwanese force?say sorry and walk away?
If such defeat emerges, I would still imagine that they will do everything but nuke (if you get what I'm saying). Chinese military commanders are smart enough to not throw nukes around like their plastic and ragdoll. Even at this stage if they nuke they would 100% defy their own purpose of the whole war.

[Red]

So what do you think they would do if they are faced with defeat at the hands of a joint American-Taiwanese force?say sorry and walk away?
If such defeat emerges, I would still imagine that they will do everything but nuke (if you get what I'm saying). Chinese military commanders are smart enough to not throw nukes around like their plastic and ragdoll. Even at this stage if they nuke they would 100% defy their own purpose of the whole war.
I get your point.Thanks for explaining.

[Red]

It is so sad,the will of the people of Taiwan count for nothing.The are in this wheter they like it or not.What a way to live.I really and trully hate politicians.
Unfortunately, to the Chinese, the opinions of the public count for little, or at least are perceived as things which may be shaped and moulded to suit their purposes via propoganda. Current polls in Taiwan indicate an unwillingness to unite with China in its present state( ie under communism). Im not sure what they say about a plebicite on the issue of independence but the politicians have been wise enough to avoid that provacative move. I know what you're saying about politicians but they can sometimes have it hard. They have to make choices about things which they are much better informed about than the public (causes, consequences, incentives, dicincentives etc etc), and because of this often look like they have made cowardly decisions. Some of them are just worms but there are plenty who are genuinely working in the best interest of their countries. i think Carter and Reagan are two examples of the latter - though I disagree with some of the results.
I am with you on that.You are turning into one of my fav board members :D

[wiking]

This seems to have grown into a quite interesting debate, and it hasn't spun off into one of those nasty arguments that debates usually end up in on this forum. Let's try and keep it that way.

First of all, none of USA's European allies would in any way be requiered to fight with you in a war with china, no treatys or any of such cover war in Asia or the southern hemosphere (if that's the right term). That's why you were alone in Vietnam.

And you must remeber that most Europeans would see a war with China as just another one of you "Witch Hunts" after Communists.

In a war with china the US must hope for an invsion of Taiwan, because that is the only situation that will get UN\NATO involved. That and if Nuclear weapons are used.

But the thing that really, really, really, really scares me is the fact that most Americans, and probably some non-americans seems to be willing to let HUNDREDS of MILLION Chinese starve to death just because you don't like the current regime or it's political views. Because that's what will happen if you in any way cut off their food supply via trade sanctions.

And you say that the Chinese should rise up against the regime. How?
Unarmed, untrained, brainwashed, unmotivated civilians against one million armed, well trained, brainwashed and well motivated soldiers. There probably isn't even a piece of history we can compare it to.
It would be nothing short of a slaughter.

And someone said that 5000 thousand years of history dosen't matter with a 55 year old nation. So working from that theory let's look at Americas track record on war in Asia. Korea was a draw (atlest in my book) and Vietnam was a complete Loss. Other than that you fought a few small wars on some of the islands in the pacific sometime in the early 1900's.

And someone said that some European countries have 'snuggled up' with china? But have you considered that it may be we who have realized that it is better to co-exist with nations who do not share our political views, and it will soon only be you who seem insistant on destroying a country, freeing its people and make yourself a couple of hundred million new fanatical anti-americans.

[n4292936]

But the thing that really, really, really, really scares me is the fact that most Americans, and probably some non-americans seems to be willing to let HUNDREDS of MILLION Chinese starve to death just because you don't like the current regime or it's political views. Because that's what will happen if you in any way cut off their food supply via trade sanctions.

And you say that the Chinese should rise up against the regime. How?
Unarmed, untrained, brainwashed, unmotivated civilians against one million armed, well trained, brainwashed and well motivated soldiers. There probably isn't even a piece of history we can compare it to.
It would be nothing short of a slaughter.

Several million Chinese peasants died in the early 60's, especially around 1963 due to the agricultural policies instituted by Mao, that was no fault of anyone but the Chinese. They are not now subject to that threat and do not receive substantial, if any, food aid from the US. Korea on the other hand does receive such aid due to the policies in place by Kim. The cessation of those policies is entirely up the DPRK gov so don't lay the blame for their starving masses at the foot of the US, it is a grossly unfair accusation.

I'd also agree that the chinese wont rise up. They rose up in 1949 and instituted communism. In my opinion there was a historical necessity for revolution in China anyway. Presently the GDP in China is growing, they are becoming gradually more free to invest and do business in a free market, and life there is gradually improving by most indicators. They have no need to revolt except to gain political freedoms they are lacking such as representative democracy and free speech. I dont think the lack of these things offers enough impetus to most people to rebel against the status quo there.

[iflu]

two questions about Taiwan:

lets suppose the present situation is that ROC controls the mainland and PRC controls taiwan. and now one day, PRC would like to say ''oh, we r an independent nation''

Question 1 goes: will u support taiwan's idea?

Question 2 goes: what do u expect the DEMOCRAT ROC government will react on this?

I will give the answer of the second question later...

[wiking]

But the thing that really, really, really, really scares me is the fact that most Americans, and probably some non-americans seems to be willing to let HUNDREDS of MILLION Chinese starve to death just because you don't like the current regime or it's political views. Because that's what will happen if you in any way cut off their food supply via trade sanctions.


Several million Chinese peasants died in the early 60's, especially around 1963 due to the agricultural policies instituted by Mao, that was no fault of anyone but the Chinese. They are not now subject to that threat and do not receive substantial, if any, food aid from the US. Korea on the other hand does receive such aid due to the policies in place by Kim. The cessation of those policies is entirely up the DPRK gov so don't lay the blame for their starving masses at the foot of the US, it is a grossly unfair accusation.

I'm not blaiming the US for the starving masses, but we might end up with a situation like that. Trade restrictions on China will strain their national budget, meaning that they probably will spend less money on importing food to be able cover other posts on their budget. Such as military hardware and equipment\raw material to produce such things.
And what is also important to remember is that the government dicides what the people sees and hears. Any actions against China, in any way or form, will give them the possibility to create over one billion brain washed, fanatical anti-americans through plain propaganda.

[bertfivesix]

two questions about Taiwan:

lets suppose the present situation is that ROC controls the mainland and PRC controls taiwan. and now one day, PRC would like to say ''oh, we r an independent nation''

Question 1 goes: will u support taiwan's idea?

Question 2 goes: what do u expect the DEMOCRAT ROC government will react on this?

I will give the answer of the second question later...

Your "situations" have crossed from irrational to childish.

1) If the "PRC Taiwan" was a de-facto independent democratic country with the right to self-determination, I like to think I would be educated enough to recognize that right. Are you? Obviously not.

2) Well, now you have to invent more situations. Is the "PRC Taiwan" a totalitarian dictatorship? Has there been a vote on the issue of separation? Is it the will of the people, or the unilateral claim of the terrorist government? Has the mainland administered Taiwan for the past hundred years? Did the mainland ever cede Taiwan to another power "in perpetuity"? Is the mainland far more prosperous then the island?

If you invent a completely different situation, the answer is completely different. But please, feel free to attempt to give a hamfisted answer to your own loaded question.

[Durandal]

1. Their goal is to invade and occupy it, under the "public" name of "liberation";
2. Their goal is to follow what the government wants -- that is, to gain the territory back;
3. They would lose massive amount of support from the population since the population does not want to see what they consider as parto f their own territory nuked under the name of liberation;
4. They would gain another batch of massive disapproval from the international community;
and finally 5. That means they would violate their use of nuclear weapons as a deterrent and get American warheads above Chinese territory.

Good post.

I am trying to take in all the more recent posts. Before I respond. Then again...a couple of you have pretty much stated similar thoughts, so it there may not be a need to.

Cheers yo!

[2RHPZ]

EU Unlikely to Lift China Arms Embargo

Deutsche Welle German radio; July 4, 2004)

European Union leaders are reportedly leaning against lifting a 15-year arms embargo against China. The U.S. government has lobbied against the move while Germany and France backed the proposal.

German government officials told Der Spiegel newsmagazine that EU countries are unlikely to sell arms to China in the foreseeable future: At their summit in June, the bloc's 25 heads of government only agreed to continue to look into lifting the ban. A decision would have to be unanimous.

The U.S. opposes lifting the ban because it does not want weapons made in the EU stationed in the Taiwan Strait, where they could be deployed against U.S. troops during a conflict over Taiwan, the newsmagazine quoted unnamed German foreign ministry officials as saying. Officials reportedly said that Britain in particular was willing to ensure continuation of the ban.

During a trip to China last December, German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder had come out in support of ending the embargo. He also supported the sale of a German plutonium plant to China -- a controversial plan that is also unlikely to happen.

French President Jacques Chirac had also supported lifting the embargo.

The EU had introduced the ban as a reaction to the 1989 Tianamen Square massacre, where the Chinese leadership cracked down on student protestors, killing up to several thousand people, according to unofficial estimates.

During a visit to Europe in May, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao had pressed European counterparts to support lifting the ban.