BearInBunnySuit
01-15-2009, 11:21 AM
For what it's worth, Kim Jong Il reportedly named his Swiss-educated third son as his successor. As with all things concerning N. Korea, I will take this latest news with a grain of salt.
North Korea’s enigmatic and ailing dictator, Kim Jong Il, is thought to have made a surprise selection of the man who will succeed him as leader of the nuclear-armed, Stalinist autocracy when he is gone.
Intelligence sources in Seoul today suggested that – very much against the expectations of South Korean analysis – Mr Kim, 66, has chosen this youngest and favourite son, Jong Un, to take over the all-pervasive family personality cult that controls the country.
The potential heir, who is thought to be no more than 24 years old, was educated in Switzerland and is the offspring of Kim’s third marriage and supposedly favourite wife – a woman who died five years ago.
In the regular and heated speculation among North Korea watchers over the shape of a world without Mr Kim, Jong Un has been routinely dismissed as a likely successor because of his youth.
Little about his upbringing is thought to make him especially suited to the task of following in his father and grandfather’s footsteps. If Jong Un does eventually assume control, he will inherit a persistently moribund economy, relations across the Korean peninsula that have plumbed new lows and an agricultural crisis that annually pushes the country dangerously close to outright famine.
Analysts at the Korea Institute for National Unification said that the critical date to watch was the parliamentary election on March 8: if Jong Un is suddenly given a seat on the powerful National Defence Commission, said one KINU official, that will be a sign that he is begun the grooming process required before he can succeed his father.
Experts in North Korean propaganda said that the selection of a notably young successor to Mr Kim was a logical step for the regime: the cult surrounding the “Dear Leader” has consistently presented him as vigorous and hearty. If, as many suspect, Mr Kim has suffered a stroke and is actually rather frail, the only way to present that reality to ordinary North Koreans, said one government source in Seoul, is with his young, vigorous son at his side.
Rumours of the anointment were greeted with scepticism in some intelligence quarters, as were suggestions that the political and military hierarchies had already been asked to pass the heir apparent’s name down through their ranks to prepare people for an eventual handover. In a nation defined by its opaqueness, the succession issue in North Korea is perhaps the most closely guarded secret and many observers believe that South Korean intelligence “scoops” on the subject are liable to be flawed.
Others said that the selection of a successor was a natural move for Mr Kim, whose health and continuing grip on power have been matters of intensifying speculation in recent months. That speculation has been fuelled by a relentless flow of photographs, officially released to show an apparently healthy Mr Kim touring various factories and military facilities. None of the pictures isdated, and Mr Kim has still not appeared at any live-broadcast public event since the middle of last year.
The questions began to arise last September when Mr Kim failed to make an appearance at a huge public parade for which participants had been rehearsing for more than a year. As suspicions mounted that the Dear Leader might be critically ill or dying, so too did worries over a possible power vacuum at the top of the notoriously unpredictable regime. If he died without selecting and grooming an heir, said US intelligence sources in December, the risks of instability were substantial.
Until today, the succession question has been complicated by the lack of an obvious heir. Mr Kim’s eldest son, Jong Nam, is in his late thirties but is believed to have put himself out of the running with a series of blunders that included being deported from Japan while reportedly attempting to visit Tokyo Disneyland with a forged passport. A biography of Mr Kim, written by his former sushi chef, suggests that the Dear Leader considered his second son, Jong Chol, too weak to be in the running as successor.
The succession question comes amid continuing deadlock in efforts to wean North Korea off its nuclear weapons programmes. Yesterday a deputy nuclear envoy from Seoul left on the first high-level visit in over a year, though hopes for a breakthrough remain low.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article5522699.ece
North Korea’s enigmatic and ailing dictator, Kim Jong Il, is thought to have made a surprise selection of the man who will succeed him as leader of the nuclear-armed, Stalinist autocracy when he is gone.
Intelligence sources in Seoul today suggested that – very much against the expectations of South Korean analysis – Mr Kim, 66, has chosen this youngest and favourite son, Jong Un, to take over the all-pervasive family personality cult that controls the country.
The potential heir, who is thought to be no more than 24 years old, was educated in Switzerland and is the offspring of Kim’s third marriage and supposedly favourite wife – a woman who died five years ago.
In the regular and heated speculation among North Korea watchers over the shape of a world without Mr Kim, Jong Un has been routinely dismissed as a likely successor because of his youth.
Little about his upbringing is thought to make him especially suited to the task of following in his father and grandfather’s footsteps. If Jong Un does eventually assume control, he will inherit a persistently moribund economy, relations across the Korean peninsula that have plumbed new lows and an agricultural crisis that annually pushes the country dangerously close to outright famine.
Analysts at the Korea Institute for National Unification said that the critical date to watch was the parliamentary election on March 8: if Jong Un is suddenly given a seat on the powerful National Defence Commission, said one KINU official, that will be a sign that he is begun the grooming process required before he can succeed his father.
Experts in North Korean propaganda said that the selection of a notably young successor to Mr Kim was a logical step for the regime: the cult surrounding the “Dear Leader” has consistently presented him as vigorous and hearty. If, as many suspect, Mr Kim has suffered a stroke and is actually rather frail, the only way to present that reality to ordinary North Koreans, said one government source in Seoul, is with his young, vigorous son at his side.
Rumours of the anointment were greeted with scepticism in some intelligence quarters, as were suggestions that the political and military hierarchies had already been asked to pass the heir apparent’s name down through their ranks to prepare people for an eventual handover. In a nation defined by its opaqueness, the succession issue in North Korea is perhaps the most closely guarded secret and many observers believe that South Korean intelligence “scoops” on the subject are liable to be flawed.
Others said that the selection of a successor was a natural move for Mr Kim, whose health and continuing grip on power have been matters of intensifying speculation in recent months. That speculation has been fuelled by a relentless flow of photographs, officially released to show an apparently healthy Mr Kim touring various factories and military facilities. None of the pictures isdated, and Mr Kim has still not appeared at any live-broadcast public event since the middle of last year.
The questions began to arise last September when Mr Kim failed to make an appearance at a huge public parade for which participants had been rehearsing for more than a year. As suspicions mounted that the Dear Leader might be critically ill or dying, so too did worries over a possible power vacuum at the top of the notoriously unpredictable regime. If he died without selecting and grooming an heir, said US intelligence sources in December, the risks of instability were substantial.
Until today, the succession question has been complicated by the lack of an obvious heir. Mr Kim’s eldest son, Jong Nam, is in his late thirties but is believed to have put himself out of the running with a series of blunders that included being deported from Japan while reportedly attempting to visit Tokyo Disneyland with a forged passport. A biography of Mr Kim, written by his former sushi chef, suggests that the Dear Leader considered his second son, Jong Chol, too weak to be in the running as successor.
The succession question comes amid continuing deadlock in efforts to wean North Korea off its nuclear weapons programmes. Yesterday a deputy nuclear envoy from Seoul left on the first high-level visit in over a year, though hopes for a breakthrough remain low.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article5522699.ece