REQ: West Point Analysis for the Batte of Vukovar 91

[Razvodnik]

Hi,

i'm looking for an analysis, made by the US Military Academy West Point, of the Battle of Vukovar. I have read a couple of times that some guys take it as reference but never saw it.

Did maybe the German Bundeswehr University made similar analysis?

Especially i'm interested in the number of Serb losses. Depending on various sources the Serbs claim to have lost "only" 1300 man, Croatian source claim to have killed up to 10.000 men. Realistic is about 7000.

PLEASE
Don't turn this into a flame thread.
MOLIM VAS
NE pretvarajte ovo u međusobno prepucavanje!

[Lokos]

Especially i'm interested in the number of Serb losses. Depending on various sources the Serbs claim to have lost "only" 1300 man, Croatian source claim to have killed up to 10.000 men. Realistic is about 7000.


Realistic is just under two thousand. Not seven. Not ten. No flames.

In the words of Hrundi, from the ABG forums:


Oni podaci iz vecernjaka su teska glupost.

Bio sam u Vukovaru za vrjeme operacije i godine nakon toga proveo da dodjem do nekih ozbiljnijih podataka o zrtvama JNA i ostalih sa te strane, ukljucujuci i razgovore sa ljecnicima-mrtvozornicima itd i odgovorno tvrdim da su gubici JNA i pridruzenih paravojski izmedju 700 i 1100 mrtvih. Do tocnijeg podatka nisam uspio doci.


If you want more information, there is plenty on the sixty-eight page thread on that forum.

http://www.avijacijabezgranica.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=1678

L.

[Razvodnik]

You will present your numbers from veterans of the JNA.
I can present the numbers from veterans of the 204. Brigade.

Both numbers won´t be the same. But if you look how intensive the fightings were over all 90 days, the Bodycount should be higher then 2000. Also it is absolutely way under 10.000 dead on the Serb side.

[Lokos]

You will present your numbers from veterans of the JNA

Is that what I'm presenting? Hrundi doesn't fall in that category...

Regardless, the only authority on the casualties involved was/is the JNA and its subsequent iterations. As such, if they presented a number of 1,300, then that is the most reliable number there is, period. Where do you think a West Point study would derive its figures from?

But, consider the following:

At most, the theoretical maximum for the JNA/paramilitary presence in and around Vukovar would have been between thirty five and forty thousand. That's if we accept that the JNA committed a third of its total strength (under arms) to the operation. Obviously, by that token, making the claim that the units involved were committed wholly, or were up to authorized strength in the first place, is ambitious.

So, a claim of 7,000-10,000 dead would also suggest a WIA count of anywhere between 15,000 and 30,000. Combat attrition in WW2 indicated that there would be 2.5 (or thereabouts) wounded per KIA. Since WW2, this rate has actually increased. In Iraq, for example, for every killed American soldier around ten are wounded. In any case, if we were to go with a number in the region of 7,000-10,000, the corresponding WIA count would have meant that the entire theoretical (rather than actual) potential strength of JNA forces became casualties during the operation.

Does that sound right to you?

In point of fact, there are a variety of claims regarding the strength of the forces actively involved in the fighting - and that strength is usually put at around 15,000. A KIA rate of one half to two thirds of that figure is beyond improbable... Either Serbs become foolhardy to the point of caricature, and completely heedless of losses sustained - or the loss rate is very, very badly overstated. The morale of these units would have had to have been unbreakable, in order to sustain such losses and continue operating with any functional value.

Brendan O'Shea, in his book about the Balkan conflicts of the 1991-1995 period, categorically states that the number could be no higher than ~1,800 - relying on the available and accessible evidence, as well as extrapolation.

I understand the romantic need for a Croatian Stalingrad, but the evidence available points to something quite different than what a veteran of the fighting on the Croatian side would suggest. I personally know a Bosnian Serb cheta commander who, to this day, believes that the 1st Krajina Korpus had 100,000 men under arms. At a time when the entire VRS fielded no more than 80,000 men. Go figure.

L.

[lightfire]

could it be a "lost in translation" moment - 10 000 casualties, not KIA.It usually happens

[Lokos]

It isn't a lost in translation moment.

L.

[Sumadinac]

Which battle had the most casualties? The battle of Vukovar?