20th Anniversary - Russian Withdrawal fm Afghanistan

[Lethal Lou]

Today is the 20th anniversary of the Russian withdrawal from Afghanistan. Charlie Wilson won his war. Lots of changes since then. Curious what folks take on this might be. How could the US have managed the aftermath of the withdrawal in such a way as to prevent / defuse the rise of the Taliban / AQ; reduce the influence of Pakistani Intelligence Agency on their domestic politics; create an alternative economy to the warlord/opium industry; etc.

Floor's open for discussion.

[a_very_ex_STAB]

Today is the 20th anniversary of the Russian withdrawal from Afghanistan. Charlie Wilson won his war.

Did he see much action?

[rhino]

Did he see much action?

doode, it like saying Winston Churchil didnt win WW2

[Hast2]

Winston Churchill won WW2...?

[Awatron]

@Hast2 You didn't know? Them brits took Berlin!

[rhino]

you got your sarcasm filter set on high, try midium or low, also improves internet speed
specially on dial up

[James]

Today is the 20th anniversary of the Russian withdrawal from Afghanistan. Charlie Wilson won his war. Lots of changes since then. Curious what folks take on this might be. How could the US have managed the aftermath of the withdrawal in such a way as to prevent / defuse the rise of the Taliban / AQ; reduce the influence of Pakistani Intelligence Agency on their domestic politics; create an alternative economy to the warlord/opium industry; etc.

Floor's open for discussion.

Since you seem to have a bit of knowledge, why don't you tell us what you think about all these topics first?

[Lethal Lou]

Nice lob. I'd kinda wanted to see what folks came up with on their own without my personal inclinations coloring the tone of their responses. But - okay - I'll toss a couple ideas out there.

The back office origin of the US support for the Afghan mujhadin operation led to junior officers taking on projects / responsiblity well beyond SOP. This allowed them to operate "outside the box" that SOP's and corporate tribal memory normally impose, especially in a governmental context. This led to dynamic / innovative solutions. However it also left them open to making mistakes that more experienced operators might have avoided.

Specificly, the US put too many apples in the ISI (Pakistani Intelligence) cart. Based on recent experiences in Central America coupled with standard cold war protocol, the US tried to distance themselves from direct intervention, at least on a superficial level. It was easy from the first to use ISI as a force multiplier. They were local, had folks that spoke the language, shared many cultural similarities and had a dog in the fight.

The error was forgetting that there are no permanent allies, only interests. This is a chronic fault of US politicians/diplomats/etc. The ISI interests diverged from US interests and when that occurred, the US elected to take the easy path - pretend that this was a temporary difference, not based on fundamental differences in goals. The bureaucracy setup to support the Afghan operation remained largely in place but sharper operators moved on to other projects. Timeservers remained on staff. They didn't pick up on the divergence. When they did have questions they were satisfied with being shined on by the tangos.

The company management in operations/clandestine service failed to 1) notice what was happening on the ground; 2) ask why; 3) demand that their vendors/staff/assets change course to align with US policy/interests; and 4) didn't report this to the agency director. Finally when the director was aware of the issues, he failed in his role as presidential advisor to provide clear, accurate information to his boss such that the correct decision to protect US interests was made in a timely manner.

What could have been done differently? Options include: carving back the slice of the pie that went to ISI by splitting operational responsiblity geographicly or functionally across other agencies within the Pakistani community; alternatively do the same thing bringing in some of the other countries bordering Afghanistan. Select a suitable front sect and dump money into their madrassas to combat the spread of Wahabi-ism (eg - Sufi madrasa or ???). The AID could have aggressively offered an alternative purchaser for the opium farmers (buy product/process some for medical use/destroy the balance). Use the CDC to bio-engineer a rust or blight for opium. Select a suitable site and make it worldwide depository for dangerous goods wastes - ongoing income using wasteland for waste disposal. Hire warlords to create a ruckus in Tibet or Iran (put their skills and tools to use in the immediate vicinity).

Ok - there's a springboard for others to use on the topic . . .

[Alexandr]

How could the US have managed the aftermath of the withdrawal in such a way as to prevent / defuse the rise of the Taliban / AQ

How?thats simple

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WaiJtLrEwVU&feature=related

[intelligenzija]

brezinski somewhere proudly stated that Afghanistan was a trap for the soviets set up by himself

[Gleipnir]

How?thats simple

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WaiJtLrEwVU&feature=related

Thanks for this- the movie Charlie Wilson's war really irritated me-
people too often forget the role Brzezinski and Mr Carter played in this drama. While I was watching that film I kept thinking about this footage.
I guess they are not Hollywood enough.

[a_very_ex_STAB]

How does Charlie Wilson feel about helping with the foundation of Al Qaeda? ;-)

[Avon]

How does Charlie Wilson feel about helping with the foundation of Al Qaeda?
I don't know how Charlie Wilson personally feels, but, he saw that if the USA helped the Afghan Government, we could have an ally. The USA simply saw it as a chapter in the bipolar world of the Cold War. We caused the USSR untold problems and once the USSR pulled out the US Government had no interest in Afghanistan. Al Quaeda, simply filled the vacuum the USA left.
Al Quaeda never made any secret that while they considered the USSR as the Great Satan, second on the list was the USA. We ignored that detail.

Adrian

[KoTeMoRe]

The Soviet withdrawed? When...p-)

Oh does this mean someone else is fighting in Dushmanistan?

[Flamming_Python]

I don't know how Charlie Wilson personally feels, but, he saw that if the USA helped the Afghan Government, we could have an ally. The USA simply saw it as a chapter in the bipolar world of the Cold War. We caused the USSR untold problems and once the USSR pulled out the US Government had no interest in Afghanistan. Al Quaeda, simply filled the vacuum the USA left.
Al Quaeda never made any secret that while they considered the USSR as the Great Satan, second on the list was the USA. We ignored that detail.

Adrian

The enemy of my enemy is my terrorist :)