General: U.S. Dominance of Skies May Wane

[pinkeye]

General: U.S. Dominance of Skies May Wane




By JOHN J. LUMPKIN, Associated Press Writer

WASHINGTON - The success of the Indian air force against American fighter planes in a recent exercise suggests other countries may soon be able to threaten U.S. military dominance of the skies, a top Air Force general said Wednesday.


"We may not be as far ahead of the rest of the world as we thought we were," said Gen. Hal M. Hornburg, the chief of Air Combat Command, which oversees U.S. fighter and bomber wings.


The U.S.-India joint exercise, "Cope India," took place in February near Gwalior in central, India. It pitted some F-15C Eagle fighters from the 3rd Wing at Elmendorf Air Force Base, Alaska, in mock combat against Indian MiG, Sukhoi and Mirage fighters.


The F-15Cs are the Air Force's primary air superiority aircraft. The Indian fighters, of Russian and French design, are the type of planes U.S. fighters would most likely face in any overseas conflict.


Hornburg, speaking to reporters, called the results of the exercise "a wake-up call" in some respects, but he declined to provide details, other than to suggest the Indian air force scored several unexpected successes against the American planes.


For the last 15 years, the U.S. military has enjoyed almost total command of the air during conflicts. A few fighters and fighter-bombers have gone down, usually victims of surface-to-air missile fire, but in general, American planes have been able to target enemy ground forces at will.


In the most recent invasion of Iraq (news - web sites), Saddam Hussein (news - web sites)'s air force stayed grounded.


Still, new tactics, better Russian fighters like the Su-30, and a new generation of surface-to-air missiles mean that U.S. dominance could be ending, said Loren Thompson, who follows military issues for the Lexington Institute, a Washington think tank.


"The United States has grown accustomed to having global air superiority, yet we haven't put much very much money in the last generation into maintaining that advantage," he said, noting the F-15 first flew in the 1970s.


"So of course the rest of the world is finally starting to catch up," he said.


Hornburg said the exercise shows the need for some new Air Force fighters, particularly the F/A-22 Raptor, which is intended to replace the F-15C. But critics deride the aircraft as too expensive and built to counter a threat that hasn't existed since the Soviet Union collapsed

[BlackRain]

I am very afraid.
http://www.strategypage.com/messageboards/messages/7-806.asp

http://www.af.mil/media/photodb/web/web_040213-F-7169B-003.jpg

Photo: GWALIOR AIR FORCE STATION, India (AFPN) -- Indian air force Squadron Leader Ajmer Singh Hundal was on hand for the arrival of the first two F-15 Eagle aircraft here Feb. 14. The aircraft and approximately 150 airmen from Elmendorf Air Force Base, Alaska, are participating in Cope India 04, an exercise which runs through Feb. 25.

[oldsoak]

I am very afraid.
http://www.strategypage.com/messageboards/messages/7-806.asp

http://www.af.mil/media/photodb/web/web_040213-F-7169B-003.jpg

Photo: GWALIOR AIR FORCE STATION, India (AFPN) -- Indian air force Squadron Leader Ajmer Singh Hundal was on hand for the arrival of the first two F-15 Eagle aircraft here Feb. 14. The aircraft and approximately 150 airmen from Elmendorf Air Force Base, Alaska, are participating in Cope India 04, an exercise which runs through Feb. 25.

- Cant see anyone picking a fight with the US just yet. The fact that you are a major market for anyone who could have the cash or inclination to build a war machine to rival yours is about the best defence you could ever have. Anyone taking you on would go broke.

[Ratamacue]

Exercises and competitions are all well and good, but they're not necessarily an indicator of how forces will actually perform in a combat situation.

[budanski]

"Hornburg said the exercise shows the need for some new Air Force fighters, particularly the F/A-22 Raptor"


LOL! The Air Force is SHAMELESS in it's attempts to ensure the deployment of the F-22. "Cope India" was just that. The comment above are aimed at getting sufficient funding for them.

Air Combat is more than the capabilities of a pilot and his aircraft; its the whole integration of all the combat aircraft with other non-combat "supervising" manpower and technology in the sky, and what we have in orbit, and all the ground stations - all in-touch and operating as one unit. Its hard to imagine any other country that can match this system.


source (http://www.saag.org/BB/view.asp?msgID=5874)

In these offensive and defensive missions, four F-15Cs were usually flying against 10 or 12 of the same model Indian fighter, according to Col. Greg Neubeck, deputy commander of operations for the wing's 3rd Operations Group and exercise director for Cope India. The 3rd Operations Group is responsible for the 3rd Wing's flying mission.

[Trigger]

In these offensive and defensive missions, four F-15Cs were usually flying against 10 or 12 of the same model Indian fighter, according to Col. Greg Neubeck, deputy commander of operations for the wing's 3rd Operations Group and exercise director for Cope India. The 3rd Operations Group is responsible for the 3rd Wing's flying mission.
The poor Indians were outnumbered.

[Deuterium]

"Hornburg said the exercise shows the need for some new Air Force fighters, particularly the F/A-22 Raptor"


LOL! The Air Force is SHAMELESS in it's attempts to ensure the deployment of the F-22. "Cope India" was just that. The comment above are aimed at getting sufficient funding for them.

Air Combat is more than the capabilities of a pilot and his aircraft; its the whole integration of all the combat aircraft with other non-combat "supervising" manpower and technology in the sky, and what we have in orbit, and all the ground stations - all in-touch and operating as one unit. Its hard to imagine any other country that can match this system.


source (http://www.saag.org/BB/view.asp?msgID=5874)

In these offensive and defensive missions, four F-15Cs were usually flying against 10 or 12 of the same model Indian fighter, according to Col. Greg Neubeck, deputy commander of operations for the wing's 3rd Operations Group and exercise director for Cope India. The 3rd Operations Group is responsible for the 3rd Wing's flying mission.

Spot on my friend, spot on. Shameless indeed, but I'd do the same if I was Air Force.

[He219]

http://accuweather.ap.org/apdbs/Intl_Photos/views/mini/7338/7338513.jpg

The head of the U.S. Air combat Command, General Hal Hornburg, told reporters at the Pentagon that his F-15's were so outdated that even Indy cars were outpacing them. Dan Wheldon of England drives a two-seat Indy Racing League car in a race against an F-15 Eagle piloted by Air Force Maj. Bret Anderson on Tuesday, June 22, 2004, at Langley Air Force Base, Va. The jet just edged out the race car near the end of the match
p-)

[Kitsune]

Although budanksi is exaggerating with his statement of US ground, air and orbital assets "working as one system" (to develop this will be an ongoing process, even for America), for the first time in my life I agree with one of his statements. Its highly likely that this is an typical attempt to justify the enomous US expenses, especially the Raptor. Reasons are proble more economical than military.

[SeanAshi]

When was the last dog fight?

[Flagg]

General Hornburg sounds like he'd make a great used car salesman...he can sell

I remember reading a quote from Chuck Yeager along the lines of "It's not the plane, it's the pilot that matters most."

And although the US doesn't have the market cornered on those who call themselves fighter pilots, it certainly has, by far, the largest pool of combat experienced tactical air drivers in the world, bar none.

Those guys(and girls) can still beat any opponent for the foreseeable future with the gear they've already got.

[stateofequilibrium]

I remember reading a quote from Chuck Yeager along the lines of "It's not the plane, it's the pilot that matters most."



It's true.. up to a certain degree. In Yeager's time, combat was still pretty much up close and personal when he backed that statement up whenever anyone foolish enough chose to test him in dogfighting.

But the flip side to that, especially in this rapidly changing world of technology is that our equipment needs to also be at the top of the line to ensure as many of our boys (And girls) come home and the other sides don't. Not everyone can be an ace like Yeager, and a squadron is as good as its worst pilot, and an okay pilot might have a better chance if he can blow the enemy sky high before they even see him.

I'm just worried with all the bureacracy and budget penny-pinching, R&D is not what it used to be and we might be plateuing content to rest on our laurels.

[Midav]

Yes, the pilot does make the difference, yet in todays world, most battles won't resemble WW II'esque dogfights.

There are missiles and radars that can see and hit targets at long, long distances. ECM and ECCM. Stealth. Electronics and equipment in general can help make the difference.

If two equally trained pilots are flying in two different aircraft, then it comes down to tech, imo.

[J-10]

http://accuweather.ap.org/apdbs/Intl_Photos/views/mini/7338/7338513.jpg

The head of the U.S. Air combat Command, General Hal Hornburg, told reporters at the Pentagon that his F-15's were so outdated that even Indy cars were outpacing them. Dan Wheldon of England drives a two-seat Indy Racing League car in a race against an F-15 Eagle piloted by Air Force Maj. Bret Anderson on Tuesday, June 22, 2004, at Langley Air Force Base, Va. The jet just edged out the race car near the end of the match
p-)

General Hal Hornburg is good salesman for F/A-22 Raptor. :lol:

[Zoomie]

But the flip side to that, especially in this rapidly changing world of technology is that our equipment needs to also be at the top of the line to ensure as many of our boys (And girls) come home and the other sides don't.
True, our technology is getting to the point where we can enter, fire, and leave a combat zone before an unsuspecting enemy fighter might realize we were near.

[Flagg]

Look at the flight hours required to gain combat capable proficiency

the hours required to maintain proficiency

and the hours acquired in combat by the average US tactical air driver today

and THEN compare that to ANY likely opponent and what do you get?

A whole bunch of newly minted US fighter aces....period

If I sold F22s instead of Harleys I'd be saying the same thing....."The sky is falling! We are in danger of losing air superiority in 2050! Only the F22 can save us! And if you act now we'll throw in No Deposit, 2.9% APR Financing! Be the first in your neighborhood to guarantee local air dominance until 2075 or your money back!"

[Midav]

If that were 100% the case, then why aren't we using P51's still?

You have to move forward. Today it's coming down towards whom sees whom first.

Missiles are starting to become more and more lethal with higher probabilities of kill. Hence, the reason why UCAV's are being developed.

I realize they are not designed for air-air combat, but how much longer down the road until they are used for that purpose?

On a side note, supercruise is another nice ability to have, along with stealth. p-)

[Midav]

"Surprising sophistication of Indian fighter aircraft and skill of Indian pilots" stunned the US Air Force. A June 2 article in the magazine Inside the Air Force reported –“The exercise, in which US F-15Cs were said to have been defeated more than 90 per cent of the time in direct combat exercises against the IAF, is causing US Air Force officials to re-evaluate the way the service trains its fighter pilots while bolstering the case for buying the F/A-22 as a way to ensure continued air dominance for the United States.”
The magazine quoted US officials who participated in the exercise as saying it should "provide a reality check for those who had assumed unquestioned US air superiority."

What really happened is as follows: US Air Force underestimated the India Air force Pilots and their numerical skill. They thought these are another set of Iraqi or Iranian Pilots. The numerical analysis and problem solving capability of IAF Pilots are well known and are probably the best in the world. In absence of signal intelligence, satellite guidance and automated software control, USAF faced Indians who were world class and
far superior than their US counterpart. IAF recruits the country’s best brains in Air Force. It is prestigious too. USAF can only recruit willing average or slightly above average. In addition, in absence of superior communication and jamming, Indians proved absolutely formidable.

On the face of it, the performance of the IAF, with its oft-reported air crashes in an aging, non-American fleet, might seem surprising. But US officials told the magazine that the Indians were much better than they had bargained for.

"What happened to us was it looks like our red air training might not be as good because the adversaries are better than we thought," the article quoted Col. Mike Snodgrass, commander of the 3rd Wing at Elmendorf Air Force Base, as saying. "And in the case of the Indian Air Force both their training and some of their equipment was better than we anticipated."

"Red air" refers to the way the US Air Force simulates enemy capability in air combat training. US officials emphasised that such simulation deliberately handicap US planes and pilots against the enemy because the service has assumed for years that its fighters are more capable than enemy aircraft.

In Cope Thunder, four F-15Cs were pitted against 10 or 12 of same model Indian fighters such as the Mirage 2000, MIG-27 and MIG-29s in offensive and defensive counter air scenarios. But the two most formidable IAF aircraft proved to be the MIG-21 Bison, an upgraded version of the Russian-made baseline MIG-21, and the Sukhoi SU-30K Flanker, US officials said.

"What we faced were superior numbers, and an IAF pilot who was very proficient in his aircraft and smart on tactics. That combination was tough for us to overcome," the magazine quoted a US airman who took part in the exercise as saying.

While acknowledging the performance of their Indian colleagues, who they will meet again in another air combat exercise in Alaska next month, the US airmen also made a major pitch for the F/A-22 aircraft that the US government has been slow to embrace because of its cost and lack of a perceived threat.

"The major takeaway for the Air Force is that our prediction of needing to replace the F-15 with the F/A-22 is proving out as we get smarter and smarter about other [countries'] capabilities around the world and what technology is limited to in the F-15 airframe," Col. Snodgrass said. "We've taken [the F-15] about as far as we can and it's now time to move to the next generation."


Here (http://www.indiadaily.com/editorial/06-18-04.asp)

[Flagg]

If that were 100% the case, then why aren't we using P51's still?

As long as our "gear" is better and our pilots are WAY better, we're fine.

But you should have a look at combat platform lifetimes since the inception of flight.....they're getting longer and longer....updates are often the more cost effective solution.


You have to move forward. Today it's coming down towards whom sees whom first.

Of course you do, but when you are so way ahead of any potential adversary it's often best to utilise limited resources in other areas where our lead isn't as great


Missiles are starting to become more and more lethal with higher probabilities of kill. Hence, the reason why UCAV's are being developed.

I realize they are not designed for air-air combat, but how much longer down the road until they are used for that purpose?

Well them we better make sure we don't have a PS2 or XBOX "Gap" like the BS missile and bombers gaps we never actually had during the COld War


On a side note, supercruise is another nice ability to have, along with stealth.

Key word being nice.......nice does not = necessary

[Ratamacue]

Something tells me that the USAF was intentionally lagging a bit in this exercise simply as a sales pitch. The F/A-22 sure is a VERY nice fighter, but let's look at practicality. It costs $130+ million a piece, takes very long to be manufactured, and truly isn't necessary. Tell them to take the F-35 and stop crying.

[usa320]

citing the Indian combat exercise as evidence that US air dominance will wane is not appropriate. THe reason being that it was plane vs. plane...

When all the US assets come together, CAP, intercept, AWACS, recon, SEAD, EW, ect. we will still be able to dominate the sky.

Strategy and the combined strike/support package plays a more vital role in the overall airwar than an individual airplane does.


Also, ive read from other places that the F-15's were outnumbered as high as 12-4.

[Midav]

As long as our "gear" is better and our pilots are WAY better, we're fine.

But you should have a look at combat platform lifetimes since the inception of flight.....they're getting longer and longer....updates are often the more cost effective solution.


Well, obviously our gear and training isn't "way" better anymore.
The Indian Air Force, along with the Israeli AF, German AF and Canadian AF have put the hurt on our pilots for a while now.

Too many posts in here, along with having read a number of publications, Wings and Jane's being two, where, unless I am mistaken, US pilots for the majority of the time have come in second.


Of course you do, but when you are so way ahead of any potential adversary it's often best to utilise limited resources in other areas where our lead isn't as great

Who is saying we are so way ahead? We are not. If that were the case, why aren't we dominating these exercises?

Off topic somewhat, yet another good example is the Canadian Army Trophy, where tankers from NATO would compete. I've always heard the M1 was dominant, yet why did the German Leo II take the trophy almost every year, before the CAT was done away with?


Well them we better make sure we don't have a PS2 or XBOX "Gap" like the BS missile and bombers gaps we never actually had during the COld War

We're talking human lives here. Not a game on xbox where you literally have indefinate lives.

If you can give me a 100% guarantee that missiles such as AA-9/10/11/12's and S-300/400 can be overcome 100% of the time, I will agree with what you said.


Key word being nice.......nice isn't exactly necessary

Faster time on target, longer loiter time, quicker response, better fuel efficiency, I wouldn't exactly call not necessary heh

[IDFM203]

Well I after seeing some of the comments on behalf of the U.S. here, I guess perhaps it wasn’t as I thought previously that the IAF (Israel’s version ;) ) “demolished” the U.S. in pilot exercises between both nations, but rather the U.S. “folded” on purpose simply due to the desire to get their top brass (or those that are in charge of procurement) to convince them to purchase the python 4’s and the newer python 5 as well as other Israeli made missiles and avionics systems that were on the Israeli planes. p-)

Well either way (pilots or technology as a reason), it worked out for us (and well in truth for the U.S. as well ;) ) :D

Shalom :D

[Midav]

Could very well be, yet with the introduction of the Aim-9X/JHMCS for close combat, I believe the system is every bit as capable as the Python 5/DASH system.

The JHMCS helmet was developed along with Israel, btw :)

What has me most worried is the BVR envelope.

[Flagg]

Well, obviously our gear and training isn't "way" better anymore.
The Indian Air Force, along with the Israeli AF, German AF and Canadian AF have put the hurt on our pilots for a while now.

Too many posts in here, along with having read a number of publications, Wings and Jane's being two, where, unless I am mistaken, US pilots for the majority of the time have come in second.

Who is saying we are so way ahead? We are not. If that were the case, why aren't we dominating these exercises?

They are exercises.....exercises, unfortunately, can be designed to likely achieve a desired result beyond "just" achieving effective combat training.....which can be quite useful for "marketing" purposes in the procurement battlefield of Congress


Off topic somewhat, yet another good example is the Canadian Army Trophy, where tankers from NATO would compete. I've always heard the M1 was dominant, yet why did the German Leo II take the trophy almost every year, before the CAT was done away with?

It sounds like you're suggesting the US should win every exercise held with it's allies?

I've learned far more from my mistakes than I have my successes...imagine....the allied Germans beating the US in a tank competition....ever heard of a Panzer?


We're talking human lives here. Not a game on xbox where you literally have indefinate lives.

If you can give me a 100% guarantee that missiles such as AA-9/10/11/12's and S-300/400 can be overcome 100% of the time, I will agree with what you said.

I was humourously referring to the alleged "Gaps" that existed in the past and were used as justification for unneccessary weapons procurement...if you have ANY knowledge about the Cold War you'd understand my reference.


Faster time on target, longer loiter time, quicker response, better fuel efficiency, I wouldn't exactly call not necessary heh

All nice things to have.....but when existing capabilites beat all likely opponents for the forseeable future commanders at the coal face would probably rather have money spent on something more critical than increasing an estimated air-to-air kill ratio from 10-to-1 to 20-to-1 :roll:

[Midav]

They are exercises.....exercises, unfortunately, can be designed to likely achieve a desired result beyond "just" achieving effective combat training.....which can be quite useful for "marketing" purposes in the procurement battlefield of Congress

Exercises that you seem to be losing against certain nations must mean you are doing something wrong and should learn from them.

If other countries start picking up on tactics and training that these US friendly nations utilize, we're in trouble.

Learn from the exercises. That's what they are there for.


It sounds like you're suggesting the US should win every exercise held with it's allies?

I've learned far more from my mistakes than I have my successes...imagine....the allied Germans beating the US in a tank competition....ever heard of a Panzer?


The only person suggesting that is you ;)

Nope, not suggesting that the US should win every single exercise. However, the US won 1 single CAT trophy. The majority won by the Germans.

I actually have the patch from the 3-8 of the 3rd AD when they won in 1987.

What's kinda sad, the Germans use conscript soldiers that stay in for one year at a time.

We had guys that were volunteers that did this stuff for years.

Bear with me.... You know what gave the Germans the edge? The hunter-killer system that we didn't employ until the advent of the M1-A2.

We had the tech, yet didn't use it until a long time after it was out.


I was humourously referring to the alleged "Gaps" that existed in the past and were used as justification for unneccessary weapons procurement...if you have ANY knowledge about the Cold War you'd understand my reference.

Already posted on that. Read above on exercises.


All nice things to have.....but when existing capabilites beat all likely opponents for the forseeable future commanders at the coal face would probably rather have money spent on something more critical than increasing an estimated air-to-air kill ratio from 10-to-1 to 20-to-1

Not just nice, but rather, necesssary to have in todays world. They give us an advantage.

Again, who is saying we are so way ahead? Sounds great on paper when confronting 3rd world nations.

Are 3rd world nations the only nations we will fight?

We should be prepared, and not become nonchalant, thinking we are better.

[ctcboy]

The U.S. airforce did much the same thing when it justified the expense of developing and fielding the F-15. They over exagerated the capabilites of the Mig 25. They said that they needed the f-15 to maintain dominance. In reality the Mig25 isnt really that grezt a dog fighter, bieng better at straight fast flight.
That being said the Airforce should be investing in staying as far ahead of other emerging regional powers or regional superpowers like India. Not that confict with India is likely to happen but the outbreak of hostilites with such a country is not the time to acquire and field new fighters.
Possibly the U.S, should look at investing in further R&D to produce an even more advanced fighter and field that. They have enough other force mutlipliers at the moment that I believe they could prevail over any other airforce irregardless of that airforces training or equipment.

[Midav]

USAF said the Mig-25 was better, yet never flew against it. It wasn't until 1976 when Mig-25 defected to Japan that its real capabilities were known.

With that said, this is the first chance the US has had to fly against an SU-30.

The rest, speaks for itself.

I realize some will say USAF lost those engagements on purpose, much like it's said it loses all the other engagements, instead of looking at reality and realizing that the F-15 is not the top "dawg" anymore, especially when two equal pilots are facing off.

[obd]

OMG, this is the dumbest thing I have EVER heard!!! Anybody who has EVER participated in ANY military exercise, ESPECIALLY internaitonal ones knows that most of them are pretty much bollucks accept for the fact that they give all sides some modicum of experience.....Often, international air force exercises such as these are VERY strictly set up and managed and do not imitate actual air ot air engagements in any way shape or form and often set rigid flight patterns and such not observed in actual combat.....Not to mention, many of these exercises are as much for political reasons as for military ones.........

It is a well known fact that US Air Force pilots are often told to "take it easy" on pilots from other nations with nowhere near the training or equipment standard of American pilots.......One of my high schhol freinds graduated from NC State University Air Force ROTC program and was eventually selected for the F-22 program..........He has told me several times that during exercises (not with F-22) with certain but not all "friendly" nations he and his fellow pilots are informally told to not use thier full ability so that it will not embarrass the host and/or visiting nations...........As much as giving US pilots training, many of these international exericeses are about building military relationships and pilot confidence of other nations.......

Call me a conspiracy theorist if you want to, but in my humble and very possibly wrong opinion, this American "loss" to the Indian air force was done on purpose as a way to bolster USAF demands for more $$ to build more advanced fighter designs and is also an attempt to make sure the F-22 program does not lose any more aircraft.......In fact, I would not be surprised if this marks the beginning of a new USAF push to expand the F-22 purchase closer to original procurement goals.....

Needless to say, I am not complaining about this as I too would like to see the F-22 built in more numbers............but I have extreme problems with anyone thinking that this American "lose" to the Indians was due to anything other than pure politics.......

I would be highyl interested to see the details of this exercise.....Im sure FAS.org will publish them soon enough.....I have a strong feeling it was a load of bullocks..........as are most exercises.........One of the few exercises worth a damn was good old RED FLAG with the Cannucks........now that was a usefull exercise if I ever saw one!!!!!!!

[Brozozo]

Whatever the deal was, DoD should push ahead with the F-22 (and issue MARPAT to the army instead of the new stuff)

[YankeeDeVallecas]

Also...why would the US (or any country I suppose) play with everything it has at an exercise? You would NEVER go full capable. Kind of when the varisity football team scrimages with the JV kids...you go %80, sometimes less.

The point of exercises is not to emberass your host or to give away your tactics/capablities. It's for the socials at the end of the day, and if your country can score political points for it, bonus. (You know like overflight rights? I'm sure India isn't too thrilled with our new best friends in the region, Pakistan. So hey let's throw them a bone that tastes good to both of us)

What would make you easier to become friendly with? A country that comes over and overwhelms you? Or a country that comes over and is humbled and is humble about it? Think people...think! ;)

I'm sure the Indian AF is pretty good...but 90% win rate? Not even on a good day, if it was full blown combat.

[Sayeret]

I heard recently that the United States and United Kingdom had trouble communicating with most of their European allies when they fought in the Balkans because the technology gap was so large. I can't remember too much else in the article but I'll try to find it.

[OB Kenobi]

Whatever the deal was, DoD should push ahead with the F-22

Yeah? Who's going to pay for them?

[n4292936]

why the generous American taxpayer of course :D