China is no great power?

[Shuimo]

China is no great power





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Carl Ungerer | April 15, 2009

Article from: The Australian (http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/)
CHINA looms large in Australian foreign and defence policy debates at the moment. From investment in our resource companies to cyber-espionage, the local commentariat seems fascinated by every detail of the Middle Kingdom and its nefarious activities.
The Weekend Australian reported last Saturday that assessments of China are the subject of high-level bureaucratic dispute among the defence and intelligence agencies. Cameron Stewart and Patrick Walter's report said that resolving these disputes would be the central theme of the forthcoming defence white paper.
The rise-of-China thesis is being touted by some strategic analysts as the principal challenge of our generation. It's not, and here's why.
China is not a great power, by any stretch of the imagination. Those who paint it as such either don't understand the nature of power in the international system or are wilfully mischievous. A great power is one that has global reach and influence. Britain in the mid-18th century was such a power, single-handedly defeating the combined navies of France and Spain.
The Soviet Union achieved great-power status after World War II, but mostly because of its primacy among the communist countries in the ideological struggle with the West.
Today, only the US is a great power. Abraham Lincoln instinctively knew this in 1838 when he said, "All the armies of Europe, Asia and Africa combined, with all the treasure of the earth in their military chest, with a Buonaparte for a commander, could not by force take a drink from theOhio."
A great power is one whose total destruction would require a coalition of other powers. Great power also describes a position of leadership and a moral purpose. None of these things describe China.
China today is like Italy of the 19thcentury, a mid-ranking power with a big appetite but poor teeth. China wants to prove itself in the councils of the world. And Beijing has made some strides towards being a more responsible stakeholder in the international system.
But a sober assessment of China's military and political strength would not put it in the first rank of powers.
After three decades of economic growth, China's military modernisation program has made it a more potent force. But China still doesn't have a single aircraft carrier. The US has more than a dozen.
According to some estimates, China spends about $70 billion each year on defence. The US spends 10 times that amount. The gap is wide and it isgrowing.
On any index of power, Japan is the more dominant player in north Asia. China has the power to frustrate its neighbours and to be a nuisance in the South China Sea. But it is incapable of projecting force beyond those narrow geographic confines.
So the main strategic issue is about what China will look like in 20 or 30years. And that's an interesting question. But suggestions that China will overtake American primacy are fanciful. They rely on linear projections of economic growth rates that in the present global circumstances are far from assured.
China remains a one-party communist state, a model of political leadership that has no one protesting in thestreets.
Ten years ago Gerry Segal, of the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, asked an important question: Does China matter?
As he said at the time, it's not a silly question, just one that doesn't get asked often enough.
It's time for policymakers to ask that question again.
China is home to one-fifth of the world's population. And it certainly matters to the people who live there. But China remains grossly overrated as a market, a military power and a source of ideas.
It is a second-rank military power with grand aspirations but limited capacity to achieve them. For Segal, it was a country that had mastered the art of diplomatic theatre, but not muchelse.
Today Canberra wavers between seeing China as an economic goldmine and a strategic threat. Half the bureaucracy works on negotiating bilateral trade deals with Beijing while the other half tries to stop the onslaught of Chinese cyber-espionage.
China clearly matters more to the world than it did 10 years ago. It is a growing power in our region and one that will be crucial to the long-term stability and prosperity of Asia.
But Segal's assessment is still closer to the mark. And until policymakers in Canberra fully appreciate that fact, wewill continue to get our China policy wrong.
Carl Ungerer is director of the national security project at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute in Canberra. These are his personal views.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25335163-5013479,00.html

[I-Tankman]

To assess the real potential military threat China will be - one needs only to read the publicly available document : 'Strategic Choices: Defending Australia in the 21st Century' - issued recently by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute. Prime Minister Rudd's concern about China is based on a genuine factual foundation. One only hopes he recognizes the imperative to act now as the steward of our children's future defense.Reply to that article from another Australian.....

[Ordie]

China is a fragile superpower only as strong as is weakest link.

[rolls]

What is it with all these **** measuring articles about china.?

'Article Summary'
NEWFLASH... China is a country OMG......

[CG51]

What is it with all these **** measuring articles about china.?

'Article Summary'
NEWFLASH... China is a country OMG......

http://i39.tinypic.com/v75mpi.gif

[TR1]

lol, if China is not a great power, who is?

[deagle]

absolute power corrupts absolutely

[Mu-Meson]

A great power is one whose total destruction would require a coalition of other powers.

That's one definition of "great power". There are others.
My main beef is with claiming Japan is a more important power in the region. Sure today it may be. 10 years from now, it will be close. 20 year? Not a chance. Japan is rapidly becoming a geriatric nation. China on the other hand has a surplus of young men on the order of tens of millions. Quality only beats quantity up to a point.

[TORA]

great power is one whose total destruction would require a coalition of other powers.


So also Pakistan would be a power, wich obviously is not

Military power is just one of many factors, indeed China is a growing great power in the world arena, it possess a huge territory, supported by the biggest population in the world, and of course by military mean is a "power" as for it's nuclear weapons arsenal and it's huge Armed Forces able to deter any invader. But all of those factors have their hugecounter balance too regarding China's developments...

The Soviet Union was the most "powerful" military entity 20 years ago...where is today

Japan possess a not huge military force without nuclear deterrent, still is a credible defense force able to deter any threat posed against it's territory by the regional neighbours, If we take into account all the other factors Japanese society is one of the most successful in the world. Unity, strong sense of the duty, respect, costant progress in conformity with the enviorment ect ect are all reality of the Japanese society, those factors make a country a succesful, solid, great power.

[Mikhael]

There are military powers ,economic powers and new term "energy " power in terms of russia

[TR1]

So also Pakistan would be a power, wich obviously is not

Military power is just one of many factors, indeed China is a growing great power in the world arena, it possess a huge territory, supported by the biggest population in the world, and of course by military mean is a "power" as for it's nuclear weapons arsenal and it's huge Armed Forces able to deter any invader. But all of those factors have their hugecounter balance too regarding China's developments...

The Soviet Union was the most "powerful" military entity 20 years ago...where is today

Japan possess a not huge military force without nuclear deterrent, still is a credible defense force able to deter any threat posed against it's territory by the regional neighbours, If we take into account all the other factors Japanese society is one of the most successful in the world. Unity, strong sense of the duty, respect, costant progress in conformity with the enviorment ect ect are all reality of the Japanese society, those factors make a country a succesful, solid, great power.

Japan a great power? i think you may be going overboard here.

[SBL]

Japan a great power? i think you may be going overboard here.
Yeah, Japan is more of a pretty good power.

[Solomin]

Let's see how China deals with 1-2-4 in the next 10 to 20 years.

[matthew.manhorn]

Japan possess a not huge military force without nuclear deterrent, still is a credible defense force able to deter any threat posed against it's territory by the regional neighbours, If we take into account all the other factors Japanese society is one of the most successful in the world. Unity, strong sense of the duty, respect, costant progress in conformity with the enviorment ect ect are all reality of the Japanese society, those factors make a country a succesful, solid, great power.

Thanks to decades of American technological and financial support amirite? With their bubble burst by evaluating the yen due to American pressure amirite?

Stop derailing this thread with your Japanese right-wing imperialist crap. Maybe you can save this message to the visitors of the Yasukuni Shrine.

[TORA]

Japan a great power? i think you may be going overboard here.

What you mean for "power"? possess 10.000 nuclear candies?

Military power is just one reality, there are more critical factors that make a country a successful and solid system.

[Mikhael]

Japan a great power? i think you may be going overboard here.


Yes japan is a economic power in the 80's they were economic super power but the bubble burst

[Eat a bullet]

^You don't think Japan can do anything in this age?

[Mikhael]

^You don't think Japan can do anything in this age?

Can you elaborate what you are saying ?

[Eat a bullet]

What I mean is they can defend themselves and aren't held back from doing so.

[IranianMob]

NATO, quick!...nuke china! http://tinypic.info/files/denr68pc00k877lcf7pu.gif

[Eat a bullet]

Lol, you are a funny guy, IranianMob (http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/member.php?u=65596).

Tell us your opinion.

[Mikhael]

What I mean is they can defend themselves and aren't held back from doing so.

Did i wrote that japan cannot defend itself ?

Japan is economic power but they are not military power that doesnt mean they are military weak.

[Eat a bullet]

It seemed like you were saying they could do nothing.

[Solomin]

It depends, the question of Japan is a complicated one. I would feel better about their defense, or China's offensive capabilities if I only knew how well each respective military could disassemble machine guns with their feet.

[IranianMob]

Lol, you are a funny guy, IranianMob (http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/member.php?u=65596).

Tell us your opinion.
one thing for sure is no matter how many chinese they "export"! to canada or other countries...the rising popuation is their downside...i wont see china as a great power until somehow! they cut the population in half...you know chinese are good at these things...but then again whos gonna trust china? and more importantly whos gonna learn chinese?

[TR1]

What you mean for "power"? possess 10.000 nuclear candies?

Military power is just one reality, there are more critical factors that make a country a successful and solid system.
Oh I think it is a power, I just said I don't know if it as great as you make it out.

[TORA]

Oh I think it is a power, I just said I don't know if it as great as you make it out.

Yes, it is for it's destructive capability...but where is the USSR with it's biggest nuclear arsenal today?

I'm just saying that military power is just one factor that is important up to one point, but there are many crucial others to consider
China or better the CCP will need to focus on many other issues if it want survive in the 21st century.

[TR1]

Yes, it is for it's destructive capability...but where is the USSR with it's biggest nuclear arsenal today?

I'm just saying that military power is just one factor that is important up to one point, but there are many crucial others to consider
China or better the CCP will need to focus on many other issues if it want survive in the 21st century.
ugh...Russia.....also a big power.....

[TORA]

ugh...Russia.....also a big power.....

You're right RUSSIA STRONG ;)

[Violet Fashion by Mindy]

Japan a great power? i think you may be going overboard here.

Japan has the worlds 2nd largest economy.

It also has one of the most modern, up to date armed forces in the world and largest.

It also has one the worlds largest industrial bases.

That pretty much makes a great power.

Nations like Pakistan, Middle East, China on paper they have huge military assets but these are directed to keeping internal control then geared for conventional armed warfare with other nations.

[TR1]

Sure I agree military power is only one, perhaps not the most important part of the power equation today, but with its huge population pool, and massive land space (hence resources) I don't see how one can doubt China's status as a great power.

At this point, China's GDP is only marginally lower than Japans, as well. And it will grow...

[TORA]

Sure I agree military power is only one, perhaps not the most important part of the power equation today, but with its huge population pool, and massive land space (hence resources) I don't see how one can doubt China's status as a great power.

These 2 factors could be counterproducive in the reality especially regarding China

Do not forget that possesss a massive land space is not always beneficial, Tibet and Sinkiang are 2 vast region that could implode at any time, the threat to the enviorment is a very top real problem for China that the CCP should put as a piority

This is a transition moment with not a clear future, China will have serious internal problems to face



At this point, China's GDP is only marginally lower than Japans, as well. And it will grow...

Yes how you can compare China with Japan (or Germany)...without doubts it will surpass those countries without strategical natural resources, billions of manpower ect ect...

BTW I'm not saying that China is not a power, is an emerging key player but with serious issues to face that may well will compromise it's rise

[Violet Fashion by Mindy]

It's GDP is only as big as it due to the population size.

Say a theoretical war breaks out between China and Russia.

China may well have the manpower but where is it getting it's resources from to sustain a campaign for more then a few months? Russia still has a pretty dam impressive navy to effectively blockade Chinese Ports.

Now without the means to protect it's imports China is ****ed.

Japan faced in a similar position still has a decent enough navy counter any Russian Naval force to protect it's imports. Imports may suffer but due to alliances and the like Japan is safe in the knowledge that the imports needed for war can be still be readily available.

Military might is only one component of being a great power. Economy, industrial base, alliances/friendship agreements all go a long way in have even bigger roles to play.

[TORA]

Japan is a shy and old dog, but wise, always little words but always many facts -

These seems are transition times with huge developing countries that seems to emerge and scream the world but those countries have a myriad of problems, are weak in the inside, from Britain to Japan, old powers will always be in the safest and better position, old powers will never die

woot

[Shuimo]

Japan is a shy and old dog, but wise, always little words but always many facts -

These seems are transition times with huge developing countries that seems to emerge and scream the world but those countries have a myriad of problems, are weak in the inside, from Britain to Japan, old powers will always be in the safest and better position, old powers will never die

woot
I don't think Japan is an old power!rofl

[Shuimo]

It's GDP is only as big as it due to the population size.

Say a theoretical war breaks out between China and Russia.

China may well have the manpower but where is it getting it's resources from to sustain a campaign for more then a few months? Russia still has a pretty dam impressive navy to effectively blockade Chinese Ports.

Now without the means to protect it's imports China is ****ed.

Japan faced in a similar position still has a decent enough navy counter any Russian Naval force to protect it's imports. Imports may suffer but due to alliances and the like Japan is safe in the knowledge that the imports needed for war can be still be readily available.

Military might is only one component of being a great power. Economy, industrial base, alliances/friendship agreements all go a long way in have even bigger roles to play.

China is such a big country!
It is able to rely on itself in the eventuality of wars!:|

[TORA]

I don't think Japan is an old power!rofl

Japan's industrial development begin during the late 19th Century, earlier than large part of Italy or Eastern Europe or of the Ottoman empire.

[Camarada_Chorizo]

ni hao

In my country usually come a lost china people looking for job and better life if they are a power why they left their country ????!!

[Ordie]

ni hao

In my country usually come a lost china people looking for job and better life if they are a power why they left their country ????!!

Too competitive to find jobs and accessible education.

[Shuimo]

Too competitive to find jobs and accessible education.
It all boils down to one thing: we have too large a population!

For anything you do to profit, you are bound to find millions who compete with you !rofl

[Mikhael]

I don't think Japan is an old power!rofl

They are considered a power from the time they sunk russian fleet at tsushima so they are "fairly" old p-)

If China wouldnt have so many warlords who fight themselves and a working government at the beginning of XX century they would be a power then too but confucionism, gigantic chaos and many more factors destroyed this chance. If not for Mao and communists China would had now equal or bigger economy than US.

[matthew.manhorn]

They are considered a power from the time they sunk russian fleet at tsushima so they are "fairly" old p-)

If China wouldnt have so many warlords who fight themselves and a working government at the beginning of XX century they would be a power then too but confucionism, gigantic chaos and many more factors destroyed this chance. If not for Mao and communists China would had now equal or bigger economy than US.

I agree on your statement about confucionism. Although China would still be under dictatorship had the KMT won but US pressure will eventually make China more democratic than what it is now today. However with Communist Soviet Union bordered I's still hard to tell the future of a KMT ruled China during the cold war

[Ordie]

However with Communist Soviet Union bordered I's still hard to tell the future of a KMT ruled China during the cold war

If the KMT forces were to have concentrated towards and the center and southern China and not sent its forces up north, we would have a similar scenario to that of North and South Korea today.

The Communist would have set up the PRC in Industrial Northern China and Manchuria with Beijing as its capital. While the KMT retaining the major urban centers and agricultural areas in the south with Nanjing as its Capital. Taiwan would've remained as a backwater akin to Hainan.

Ironically, up until the 1980's both the KMT and the CCP had identical Soviet Single Party Dictatorship governing models. Both expouse Sun Yat Sen's three principles of Democracy, Well Being and Nationalism.

The KMT on Taiwan has achieved Democracy and Well Being but lacks Nationalism.

The CCP on the Mainland has achived Well Being and Nationalism, but lacks Democracy.

[hskywalker]

Now without the means to protect it's imports China is ****ed.
.
Do you really believe a country the size of China will severly lack certain resources in war? Check iron ore, copper, coal, oil production of China, and compare that to japan and germany.

[Ordie]

Do you really believe a country the size of China will severly lack certain resources in war? Check iron ore, copper, coal, oil production of China, and compare that to japan and germany.

The major resource the PLA lacks is combat experience.

[hskywalker]

The major resource the PLA lacks is combat experience.
And some people say China is aggressive.

[Kilgor]

Do you really believe a country the size of China will severly lack certain resources in war? Check iron ore, copper, coal, oil production of China, and compare that to japan and germany.

FYI germany had plenty of coal.

And most of those things your buying from places like Australia.

[Shuimo]

If the KMT forces were to have concentrated towards and the center and southern China and not sent its forces up north, we would have a similar scenario to that of North and South Korea today.

The Communist would have set up the PRC in Industrial Northern China and Manchuria with Beijing as its capital. While the KMT retaining the major urban centers and agricultural areas in the south with Nanjing as its Capital. Taiwan would've remained as a backwater akin to Hainan.

Ironically, up until the 1980's both the KMT and the CCP had identical Soviet Single Party Dictatorship governing models. Both expouse Sun Yat Sen's three principles of Democracy, Well Being and Nationalism.

The KMT on Taiwan has achieved Democracy and Well Being but lacks Nationalism.

The CCP on the Mainland has achived Well Being and Nationalism, but lacks Democracy.

I don't think Tw is a demcratic place!

[Smiling_Wolf]

The major resource the PLA lacks is combat experience.

You mean modern combat experience right? Otherwise, they did get involved in a couple of wars this past century.

^^^
And (sorry to go off-topic, guys) Shuimo, can you learn to post your replies a little more... compactly? And put more input into your comments? Random opinions like "I don't think Tw is a demcratic place!" isn't going to promote much discussion.

[Ordie]

I don't think Tw is a demcratic place!

What do you know about democracy?
When was the last time you voted for the President of your country?

[Ordie]

You mean modern combat experience right? Otherwise, they did get involved in a couple of wars this past century.

Most of the veterans of those conflicts are over 70.
Many of the current generals got thier start in the PLA during the late Cultural Revolution period and they are approaching retirement.

But China should not worry. Thanks to General MacArthur, Japan is constrained by Article 9 of thier Constitution. And the ROC on Taiwan are equally inexperienced.

Its been a generation since the Vietnamese had last seen combat.

Ironically enough, the Mongolian Army has more operational experience in Iraq than China.

[Ordie]

And some people say China is aggressive.

Only towards thier own people.

[matthew.manhorn]

The major resource the PLA lacks is combat experience.

I would say that the PLA had a good record by achieving nearly impossible goals in the Korean and Sino-Vietnam war.

[KilRemgor]

IMO there's a better way to define 'Great Power'.

Great Power doesn't mean you have the very powerful army, or the state-of-art tech, or resource A or resource B. Considered alone, all those things should be present, but they don't need to be 'great' or 'maximum' each.

It just means your decisions and your very existence do matter on global scale and you can exert your power over others on large scale, while being relatively safe from being 'pushed around' even by other Great Powers. The means you're using to achieve that may be different, though obviously some sheer military power is a must (but it isn't required to be great: if your main power is non-military one, just enough military power to deter others is enough).

Basically this definition just rounds down to having a power and being able to use it on great scale - thus making 'literal' Great Power.

China and Russia would likely automatically qualify (US too, of course, but presently it's superpower and that's another scale).
Japan and UK may, too, depending on how you look on modern economy (as their capability to militarily 'push' others is significant, but somewhat limited practically due to 'island' status + not that numerous forces for any sustained operation (alone, w/o US), and they can't really 'suffocate' someone by economic/resource blockade either; but sure their general influence on economy is powerful).
France, India and Germany are somewhat not that clearly qualifying for such criteria, but could be still considered.

[matthew.manhorn]

I don't think Tw is a demcratic place!

Given that you live in Beijing I doubt you'll have any access to Taiwanese news / politics, so please hush unless you have facts to support your opinions.

[Kadrun]

Do you really believe a country the size of China will severly lack certain resources in war? Check iron ore, copper, coal, oil production of China, and compare that to japan and germany.

Yes you did during the most recent earthquake, and it has been criticized.

[Kadrun]

I don't think Tw is a demcratic place!

Best comment from person living in China.