Asia 'must cut export dependency'

[CG51]

Asian governments must cut reliance on export-driven growth and spend more to cut poverty, Asian Development Bank (ADB) finance officials have said.

Countries must restructure to focus on domestic demand as they grapple with economic chaos, the banks' annual meeting in Indonesia was told.
Asian economies are slumping as demand for their products falls during the worst global slump since World War II.
The downturn is set to keep tens of millions of people trapped in poverty.

'Greater resilience'

Asia's main export markets had experienced a "massive contraction in demand" since the implosion of the US mortgage market triggered the global banking crisis last year, ADB President Haruhiko Kuroda told a seminar at the meeting.
He said the knock-on effects had been interest rates on bonds rising and Asian currencies depreciating as foreign capital was taken out of emerging markets.
Economic stimulus packages produced by the likes of China and Japan to boost their economies would not be sufficient in the long-term he added.
"Over the longer term, developing Asia is starting the process of rebalancing growth from excessive dependence on external demand to greater resilience on both consumption and investment," he said.
"Already there are signs that domestic consumption is remaining strong in Asia and may well lead the way out of this downturn."
The ADB is predicting growth of 3.4% in Asia for 2009 compared with more than 9% in 2007.

Poverty warning

Chinese and Indian finance officials were among those backing Mr Kuroda's calls for efforts to stimulate domestic consumption.
Greater spending on infrastructure and education were needed, they said, as well as social safety nets to give Asian consumers, especially the poor, the confidence to spend.
The ADB's main role is lending to alleviate poverty in developing Asian nations.
But it estimates that the economic crisis has kept about 60 million Asian people in severe poverty, who, in less uncertain global economic times, would have been able to improve their standards of living.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8031456.stm


Assume that China and other large Asian countries make it to the standard of living that we have here in the west. What will that mean for the west, especially in the States as we manufacture almost nothing here.

Interesting future, considering the amount of debt our future generations will be forced to deal with.

[Ordie]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8031456.stm


Assume that China and other large Asian countries make it to the standard of living that we have here in the west. What will that mean for the west, especially in the States as we manufacture almost nothing here.

Interesting future, considering the amount of debt our future generations will be forced to deal with.

We must break the ideaology and the concept that wealth and materialism equates to high standard of living. The degree of averace and hedonism among the Chinese and Americans is very troubling.

Instead of focusing on wealth, a better option is to focus on quality of life and social equality issues. Clean water, clean air, free access to health care, free universal education, sanitation etc...

If a society is more equal as in the case with Japan or Denmark, then there are less social problems and more stability.

One only needs to visit the local dump to see how much we spend on vanity and wealth on the backs of people who are deperate to scrape a living. The Chinese model of being the factory of the world is not sustainable in the long run.

[Nightsky]

Assume that China and other large Asian countries make it to the standard of living that we have here in the west. What will that mean for the west, especially in the States as we manufacture almost nothing here.

Well, most likely the new work bench would be in Africa or so then ... since labour jobs tend to decline with an increasing standard of living.

However, after Africa, the world will grow short of cheap manufacturers ;)

[CG51]

Good post Ordie.

I was thinking along the lines of if China or an industrial block of nations in Asia make it to our living standard, they will be self supporting and not totally dependent on selling cheap goods to the west. Since we do not manufacture much here, how will that effect the service sector that is dependent on selling those wares for profit? Seems to be a long way off, but they, spending on infrastructure and building a middle class over there is a start.

[little icebear]

We must break the ideaology and the concept that wealth and materialism equates to high standard of living. The degree of averace and hedonism among the Chinese and Americans is very troubling.

Instead of focusing on wealth, a better option is to focus on quality of life and social equality issues. Clean water, clean air, free access to health care, free universal education, sanitation etc...

If a society is more equal as in the case with Japan or Denmark, then there are less social problems and more stability.

One only needs to visit the local dump to see how much we spend on vanity and wealth on the backs of people who are deperate to scrape a living. The Chinese model of being the factory of the world is not sustainable in the long run.

OMG! SOCIALISM!!!1!!


p-)

[sinophile]

We must break the ideaology and the concept that wealth and materialism equates to high standard of living. The degree of averace and hedonism among the Chinese and Americans is very troubling.

Wealth creation is a problem? What reason is there for me to hire another employee if not increase or preserve my company's profitability? What reason is there for a Chinese or American businessperson to invest at all if not for a return on that investment?

For China there must be more domestic consumption. Without an increase in Chinese worker's wages and support for Chinese small business, the country will continue to be a black hole for foreign currencies, and this global recession may never pass.


Instead of focusing on wealth, a better option is to focus on quality of life and social equality issues. Clean water, clean air, free access to health care, free universal education, sanitation etc...

If you're referring to China then as you've already posted they are trying to move in that direction. Progress is slow, but they are working toward the goal. They are in a race against public outrage on these issues.

If you're referring to the US then I would just make the observation that free health care is not at all free, and whether you pay for it in taxes or as your work compensation - you pay for it either way, and in many hard-to-see ways.


If a society is more equal as in the case with Japan or Denmark, then there are less social problems and more stability.

I'm sorry, but Japanese society has many inequalities, particularly with regard to how women, workers and non-Japanese are treated. I love Japan a great deal, but cannot understand how anyone could brag about its social equality.


One only needs to visit the local dump to see how much we spend on vanity and wealth on the backs of people who are deperate to scrape a living. The Chinese model of being the factory of the world is not sustainable in the long run.

I know the images you're reacting to. I've seen them on trips to China, and US dumps. Try to remember one thing... were it not for China's overcapacity and US overconsumption, those people would have starved in what was a mess of an agrarian economy. Think North Korea.

[BearInBunnySuit]

I'm sorry, but Japanese society has many inequalities, particularly with regard to how women, workers and non-Japanese are treated. I love Japan a great deal, but cannot understand how anyone could brag about its social equality.

It's a mistake that Westerners tend to make about Japan because it appears to be so "modern" on a superficial level. If anyone spends time there long enough and has enough day-to-day contact with the locals, they will soon realize that Japan is probably just as hierarchical and discriminatory as any other Asian society.

[matthew.manhorn]

It's a mistake that Westerners tend to make about Japan because it appears to be so "modern" on a superficial level. If anyone spends time there long enough and has enough day-to-day contact with the locals, they will soon realize that Japan is probably just as hierarchical and discriminatory as any other Asian society.

x2, well said Bunny. Japan is a very beautiful country with a unique culture, however, I'll never want to live there.

[ren0312]

Good post Ordie.

I was thinking along the lines of if China or an industrial block of nations in Asia make it to our living standard, they will be self supporting and not totally dependent on selling cheap goods to the west. Since we do not manufacture much here, how will that effect the service sector that is dependent on selling those wares for profit? Seems to be a long way off, but they, spending on infrastructure and building a middle class over there is a start.

I guess the biggest question is will China seek to remake itself in the image of the West like Japan did with the Meiji reforms of the 19th century, and forgo its cultures and tradiitons, or will it try to attain a Western standard of living while at the same time largely retain its 4,000 year old culture? IS it possible that eventually you will see a China with a Western standard of living, but with a political system more similar to the enlightened despots of Europe like Maria Theresa and Peter the Great?

[TORA]

I'm sorry, but Japanese society has many inequalities, particularly with regard to how women, workers and non-Japanese are treated. I love Japan a great deal, but cannot understand how anyone could brag about its social equality.


I'm living in Japan and while I agree that there are some inequalities on the job and toward foreign communities (south americans and asians just like in Europe...) the level of how woman is treated is not lower than European nations instead I would say is more high than many regions in Italy...and regarding the Job I think is a peculiar characteristic of the Japanese society, you cannot put on the same level the conditions of life in Japan with most of Asia. I agree I would not compare Japan to the most free democracies in Europe like the Netherlands or Denmark but still there is freedom, and it's society fruits of it's unique characteristics is one of the most stable in the world.


I guess the biggest question is will China seek to remake itself in the image of the West like Japan did with the Meiji reforms of the 19th century, and forgo its cultures and tradiitons, or will it try to attain a Western standard of living while at the same time largely retain its 4,000 year old culture?

Japanese society it evolved accepting Western standards but still is largely attached to it's culture, the image of the foreigners is based on it's modernity, Tokyo, it's big cities...but Japan has not lost it's pride and it's traditions.

[matthew.manhorn]

Japanese society it evolved accepting Western standards but still is largely attached to it's culture, the image of the foreigners is based on it's modernity, Tokyo, it's big cities...but Japan has not lost it's pride and it's traditions.

The Japanese had been adopting Chinese culture during the ancient times, the German culture during the 19th century, and American culture during the 20th century...so may I ask you what's the definition of "genuine Japanese culture"? Japanese natives cannibalizing people?

Culture evolves through time and can't be stopped

[BearInBunnySuit]

I'm living in Japan and while I agree that there are some inequalities on the job and toward foreign communities (south americans and asians just like in Europe...) the level of how woman is treated is not lower than European nations instead I would say is more high than many regions in Italy...and regarding the Job I think is a peculiar characteristic of the Japanese society, you cannot put on the same level the conditions of life in Japan with most of Asia.

That's not what I heard.

[TORA]

The Japanese had been adopting Chinese culture during the ancient times, the German culture during the 19th century, and American culture during the 20th century...so may I ask you what's the definition of "genuine Japanese culture"?

I don't mean that...while the Japanese culture throught the centuries assimilated characteristic from different countries, from China to Western nations, it's modernization didn't affect it's social structure, still today it's basic social concepts are really not changed, and cannot change, these are the complex, peculiar and strong points of their society.

This is an old book but still good by Chie Nakane :

http://www.amazon.com/Japanese-Society-Center-Korean-Studies/dp/0520021541/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1241418682&sr=1-2

The book is from the 70's so do not take in examinations the 80's economic boom and the following 90's recession developments, but still is a good book for understand Japan and it's social characteristics.

[ayanami_tard]

the four big tigers(japs,south korea,hk,singapore)PLUS other tigers(malaysia,thailand,indonesia,vietnam,etc.........) already realized that they can't totally depend on manufacturing to support their economy since 1997 economy crisis.most are already diversify their own economy(like agriculture,biotech,tertiary industry,etc)

[Ordie]

I guess the biggest question is will China seek to remake itself in the image of the West like Japan did with the Meiji reforms of the 19th century, and forgo its cultures and tradiitons, or will it try to attain a Western standard of living while at the same time largely retain its 4,000 year old culture? IS it possible that eventually you will see a China with a Western standard of living, but with a political system more similar to the enlightened despots of Europe like Maria Theresa and Peter the Great?

It depends on what the society and it's leadership can tolerate and sustain in the long term.

You forgot about the Post-War US imposed Japanese Constitution and reforms. That in it of itself has the most relevant and important societal impact on Japanese culture, norms and policies. Its a case study that is often overlooked but speaks volumes about Japan today.

Gen. MacArthur was given carte-blanche to re-create Japan. He drafted many of the brightest (liberal minded) people within his ranks to literally write the Japanese constitution and reforms. Most importantly Article 9.

[ren0312]

It depends on what the society and it's leadership can tolerate and sustain in the long term.

You forgot about the Post-War US imposed Japanese Constitution and reforms. That in it of itself has the most relevant and important societal impact on Japanese culture, norms and policies. Its a case study that is often overlooked but speaks volumes about Japan today.

Gen. MacArthur was given carte-blanche to re-create Japan. He drafted many of the brightest (liberal minded) people within his ranks to literally write the Japanese constitution and reforms. Most importantly Article 9.

I think you underestimate the impact the Meiji reforms had on Japanese society, without it there would not have been the consitutuency that would be submit to MacArthur's constitution by fiat, albeit reluctantly, as for Article 9, I think it is possibly the most flawed part of the Constitution that I am aware off, since it left Japan with military that is incapable of defending itself, seeing that it is only allowed to spend 1% of GDP on defense, the , in comparison West Germany was allowed to have a 500,000 man armed forces and spent twice as much as Japan on defense relative to the size of its economy, the fact that it is not allowed to export its arms also means that it is unable to keep unit costs down by taking advantage of the economies of scale offered by arms exports.