Belarus warms relations with EU

[Derbedeu]

The president of Belarus has told a top EU official that he "sincerely wants to build good relations" with the bloc, shrugging off Russian disapproval.
EU External Relations chief Benita Ferrero-Waldner promised Belarus co-operation on "a wide range of areas of mutual interest" on Monday.
President Alexander Lukashenko welcomed her visit and said he wanted to improve ties "no matter whom that displeases".
That appeared to be a reference to its previously close friend Russia.
Belarus has been Russia's closest ally in the region since the collapse of the Soviet Union, but there are now real tensions between them, says the BBC's Russian affairs analyst Steven Eke.


Gas dispute
Earlier this month Russia imposed a ban on Belarussian dairy products, ostensibly on health grounds. Belarus retaliated by installing a highly symbolic customs post on the two countries' joint border.
Both measures were later reversed, but a bigger dispute looms.
The Russian gas giant, Gazprom, has demanded that Belarus pay its gas bill for the first four months of this year - worth $230m - within a week, a tall order.


The EU recently launched its "Eastern Partnership", which aims to improve ties with six former Soviet republics, including Belarus.
Although it has been called "Europe's last dictatorship", Belarus recently freed all political prisoners and made other concessions to democracy.
"Belarus has taken steps in the right direction and we have recognised that," Ms Ferrero-Waldner said, adding that the EU would be prepared to reward further reforms.




What does mp.net think? Is Lukashenko being genuine, or is he just playing both sides?

[matthew.manhorn]

Well according from my Russian friends said that Lukashenko is not a big fan of the Belarusian native language and continues to Russify Belarus, so I think Lukashenko's playing games. Just my 2 cents.

[Panchito12]

Obvious groveling is clearly one of Lukashenko's bests skills.

[tea drinker]

What does mp.net think? Is Lukashenko being genuine, or is he just playing both sides?
Well, ask yourself - is he a politician?

As for paying for the 4 months Jan/Feb/Mar/Apr why not? It's near end of June already. However there must be a commercial relationship governing the terms here so in the absence of knowledge on this I actually don't know what I'm talking about.

If EU can hold together eventually even Russia will be in it.

[Kilgor]

His economy is shot to pieces, its obvious what he wants.

[Russianlynxy]

Stop calling Lukashenko a genius, he is a petty little traitor who patiently waited for the highest bidder. Luka officially sold out to the EU...

In a matter of weeks Belorussian-Russian relations went from allied economically and militarily to Luka personally ordering his politicians to look for money and partnerships elsewhere, in other parts of the world (his own words). In the past two days it came down to the US and Russia offering Belarus equal subsidized conditions for bailout loans, Belarus not only chose the overseas partner but Luka declared he wants to expel Russian petroleum and Gas enterprises from Belarus to make way for alternative companies. - This is considering the fact that Belarus NEVER returns loaned money and Russia understands this quite well

Mind you this was after Russia chose to give Belarus back it's Dairy export business, nearly 100% of which is exported to Russia at the expense of Russian domestic dairy producers. This was done to keep Belarus loyal even if it was extremely unprofitable.

Obviously this is only the politicized layer of the issue. Beneath it all it's more simple, it's a war for Belarus between Russia and the "West" who's objective remains to keep tearing up relations on the post-Soviet space and restructuring them for personal benefit. Luka only needed a little bribe, in his case remaining in power, and probably money and political protection.
He doesn't give a **** about things which matter to people in this part of the world: Slavic Unity, economic partnerships which will fortify all our economies in air of crisis, agreements reached in the resource and defense sphere. Nevermind the 15-year progress toward making a common currency and uniting nations under one.

You can't help but feel sorry for Belorussians who's opinions he does not represent and who are mostly sympathetic toward Russia. Yet despite everything Luka looks west with arms wide open. I bet the happiest member in the EU right now is Poland, who's dream of tearing Ukraine and Belarus away from Russia has been one of hundreds of years.

He spat all over it all.

What is most upsetting in this situation is that Russian Intelligence Agencies have lost this battle (maybe even the war, for now) and have ceded Belarus to the efforts of western agencies: Mi 6, BND, etc...

P.S. I am from Russia and of mixed Russian, Belo, Ukrainian heritage and it almost breaks my heart to see how we are destroying ourselves and our relationships. It's alot harder to rebuild than to demolish.

[sepheronx]

There is only so much that USA can give to these countries before they stop doing it altogether (look at latin America). These eastern european countries need to understand that, but they don't. So as Belarus tries to play both sides, in the end, they will lose all together. Russia will back out and Belarus will lose most of its economy. They will get funded for so long by NATO and by EU, until countries would start saying why they need to continue to provide them food all the time. Belarus is playing a dangerous game.

[Derbedeu]

Stop calling Lukashenko a genius, he is a petty little traitor who patiently waited for the highest bidder. Luka officially sold out to the EU...


No one called him a genius, I asked whether his intentions are genuine.



You can't help but feel sorry for Belorussians who's opinions he does not represent and who are mostly sympathetic toward Russia. Yet despite everything Luka looks west with arms wide open. I bet the happiest member in the EU right now is Poland, who's dream of tearing Ukraine and Belarus away from Russia has been one of hundreds of years.

I think our Polish friends would (rightfully imo) disagree with this. Poland has been (in recent history) on the short end of the stick when it comes to Russian-Polish relationship. They never coveted Belarus or Ukraine, they just wanted to be free of Russian influence.



What is most upsetting in this situation is that Russian Intelligence Agencies have lost this battle (maybe even the war, for now) and have ceded Belarus to the efforts of western agencies: Mi 6, BND, etc...
You got some sources to back this up?



P.S. I am from Russia and of mixed Russian, Belo, Ukrainian heritage and it almost breaks my heart to see how we are destroying ourselves and our relationships. It's alot harder to rebuild than to demolish.I can somewhat understand your angst, however keep in mind that both Belarus and Ukraine opted for their independence after the fall of the Soviet Union. Also I think Lukashenko, as someone who has been in power for 15 years, is loathe to give it up. He most definitely can be described as shrewd for this balancing act between the EU and Russia. I don't think you have to worry about him ever joining the EU (or Russia for that matter) since it would mean that he would lose his political power and privaleged position.

[Karaahmetoglu]

He is just playing both sides. There is hardly any difference between Belarus and Russia. I knew a few Belarusians who when asked were in Russia they were from specifically they replied Belarus!

[Shurik SST]

I guess he is off the list of dictators and a OK now?

[Afro-European]

Western support to cost Belarus as much as Russia's

Benita Ferrero-Waldner, European Commissioner for External Relations and European Neighbourhood Policy, announced the conditions for European financial aid to Belarus on Monday in Minsk. To obtain the loans that are crucial for the country's development, Belarus will have to sell to European investors its key industrial facilities.

In fact, Moscow has been offering President Alexander Lukashenko assistance under similar terms for some time.

Lukashenko indicated at his meeting with the visiting European commissioner that the development of relations with Europe would help his country preserve its sovereignty. He has often complained recently that Moscow was pressuring Belarus economically. Belarus was worried by Russia's shrinking economic support, growing prices of energy resources and declining trade, and expected to compensate for the shortage with the EU's support.

However, Ferrero-Waldner brought a mere 10 million euros, an amount too meager to revive the Belarusian economy, analysts say. Yaroslav Romanchuk, head of the Mizes Research Center in Minsk, said the country needed at least $7 billion.

However, Lukashenko and Ferrero-Waldner discussed far greater loans at their meeting on Monday, according to a source close to the talks. The European commissioner reportedly said that Brussels was wiling to lend to Belarus, but only after the country's government agrees to privatize its key companies and allow European investors to buy stakes in them.

The EU is primarily interested in two Belarusian refineries, Mozyrsky and Novopolotsky, and potassium deposits (primarily Starobinskoye).

"The Europeans have said informally that they would pay market price for the assets, and will only lend big amounts to the country against a guarantee that the assets will be for sale," the source said.

It transpires that the West and Russia have made very similar offers to Belarus - loans in exchange for control of key economic operators. This means that Lukashenko won't be able to maneuver between Moscow and Brussels for much longer and will have to make a choice soon enough

Source:Vedomosti, Gazeta.ru

[shadowsrider]

You can't help but feel sorry for Belorussians who's opinions he does not represent and who are mostly sympathetic toward Russia. Yet despite everything Luka looks west with arms wide open. I bet the happiest member in the EU right now is Poland, who's dream of tearing Ukraine and Belarus away from Russia has been one of hundreds of years.


And the dream of average Belarussian citizen is to join Russia?
There are pretty many Belarussians in my city and believe me that everyone of them will prefer EU. Yes, my dream is to tear Ukraine from Russian hands and enslave Ukrainian women :)

[sepheronx]

And the dream of average Belarussian citizen is to join Russia?
There are pretty many Belarussians in my city and believe me that everyone of them will prefer EU. Yes, my dream is to tear Ukraine from Russian hands and enslave Ukrainian women :)

I don't know about you, but I would TRY to develop a country that has warm feelings with the person next to me, that has the second largest arsenal of WMD's in the world. Also a military that has proven to be ruthless.

[Stormz_STA]

...I would TRY to develop a country that has warm feelings with the person next to me, that has the second largest arsenal of WMD's in the world. Also a military that has proven to be ruthless.

So what you're saying is that Russia is a military threat to Belarus? Nice.

[zg18]

And the dream of average Belarussian citizen is to join Russia?
There are pretty many Belarussians in my city and believe me that everyone of them will prefer EU. Yes, my dream is to tear Ukraine from Russian hands and enslave Ukrainian women :)

So? There are 800.000 of them in Russia , i'm sure they prefer Russia.

I kinda respect Luka , he is wise fox , and while economy is not in so good condition but comparing situation with Ukraine's , instability , financial collapse ,conflicts with Russia , Belarus has window of opportunity to connect more with the West and higher it's price when dealing with Russia, Luka knows that West isn't to be trusted but he also knows that Russia wil not risk anything.

[saturnin]

I don't know about you, but I would TRY to develop a country that has warm feelings with the person next to me, that has the second largest arsenal of WMD's in the world. Also a military that has proven to be ruthless.

Is that an argument?
I mean when somebody is stronger the others must/should listen to him?
Will Russia use wmd´s or ruthless army when Belorus will look at west?

common, this is not declaration of war on Russia :roll:

[zg18]

I don't know about you, but I would TRY to develop a country that has warm feelings with the person next to me, that has the second largest arsenal of WMD's in the world. Also a military that has proven to be ruthless.

Belarus army is like extended branch of Russia's military , i don't understand your point here , it's not "Cold war" out there.

[Frutzel]

And the dream of average Belarussian citizen is to join Russia?
There are pretty many Belarussians in my city and believe me that everyone of them will prefer EU.

Yeah we believe you :roll: Sounds like " a friend of my friend story", which equals BULL****!

[Wonsild]

Is that an argument?
I mean when somebody is stronger the others must/should listen to him
Yes. This is the way it works in reality. Ask yourself why is USA allowed to do things that Finland isn't.

[widi243]

Yeah we believe you :roll: Sounds like " a friend of my friend story", which equals BULL****!

We means who?? speak for yourself

[saturnin]

Yes. This is the way it works in reality. Ask yourself why is USA allowed to do things that Finland isn't.

Ask yourself what would happen to russian economy if they started conventional war with Belaru or even used WMD´s....:roll:

[Kilgor]

I don't know about you, but I would TRY to develop a country that has warm feelings with the person next to me, that has the second largest arsenal of WMD's in the world. Also a military that has proven to be ruthless.

maybe putting 20 years old in your age isn't a good thing.

[SkyUS]

How in bloody hell is Poland even in this thread. And now it's a discussion about Poland in WWII and non-aggression acts. Blah blah blah

Damn stay on topic. Leave WWII, Poland Germany out of this topic.

sepheronx- do you even read what you write, because it's such a nonsense that it hurts my brain

[Wonsild]

Ask yourself what would happen to russian economy if they started conventional war with Belaru or even used WMD
Oh man, you have a sick fantasy. That would be like a war between Czech republic and Slovakia.

[saturnin]

Oh man, you have a sick fantasy. That would be like a war between Czech republic and Slovakia.

read my posts more carefully next

EDIT: better to say what I reacted to and how

[Wonsild]

read my posts more carefully next

EDIT: better to say what I reacted to and how
I did and I fail to see your logic. I will explain what I meant: it is better to have good relations with the strong country next to you not because you should be afraid of them using weapons against you, but because being a friend of such country you are buying sort of protection against other country that could otherwise attack you by using military or economic means.

[saturnin]

original post:

I don't know about you, but I would TRY to develop a country that has warm feelings with the person next to me, that has the second largest arsenal of WMD's in the world. Also a military that has proven to be ruthless.

my reaction:

Is that an argument?
I mean when somebody is stronger the others must/should listen to him?
Will Russia use wmd´s or ruthless army when Belorus will look at west?

common, this is not declaration of war on Russia :roll:

another post:

"Is that an argument?
I mean when somebody is stronger the others must/should listen to him"
Yes. This is the way it works in reality. Ask yourself why is USA allowed to do things that Finland isn't.

my replay:
"Yes. This is the way it works in reality. Ask yourself why is USA allowed to do things that Finland isn't."
Ask yourself what would happen to russian economy if they started conventional war with Belaru or even used WMD´s....:roll:

[Derbedeu]

I did and I fail to see your logic. I will explain what I meant: it is better to have good relations with the strong country next to you not because you should be afraid of them using weapons against you, but because being a friend of such country you are buying sort of protection against other country that could otherwise attack you by using military or economic means.

Then you lack reading comprehension. Saturnin was quite clear in his response. Yours doesn't make any sense. Belarus is an independent country. If it wishes to develop better relations with the EU, it is free to do so. This doesn't necessarily preclude maintaining good relations with Russia either. It can have both. Besides, no country next to Belarus poses a threat to it. And so far, only Russia has "attacked" Belarus with the whole milk scandal (though they have withdrawn that).

[Russianlynxy]

Then you lack reading comprehension. Saturnin was quite clear in his response. Yours doesn't make any sense. Belarus is an independent country. If it wishes to develop better relations with the EU, it is free to do so. This doesn't necessarily preclude maintaining good relations with Russia either. It can have both. Besides, no country next to Belarus poses a threat to it. And so far, only Russia has "attacked" Belarus with the whole milk scandal (though they have withdrawn that).

There will be no war between Russia and Belarus, I don't see why some of you need to take it this far. This is purely a political conflict. It also doesn't make sense to me why a leader who has been an ally of the Russian Federation has suddenly and unexpectedly gone amok and scrapped everything that has been worked on between Russia and Belarus in the last fifteen years.

seems a little odd, don't you think, To me, personally it all smells of a political or government service operation of some sort. And no I cannot find you proofs, links, etc.. because there is no media source in the world that will tell you that. This is just my personal judgement of events, because some things are just not coming together. And we are here to discuss why.

[saturnin]

:cantbeli:

I did NOT said there will be war between Russia and Belorusa or what you think.

one again my post you probably reacted to:
Ask yourself what would happen to russian economy if they started conventional war with Belaru or even used WMD´s....:roll:

in this post i did not do any political analysis, no comment on realation between Belarusian people and Russian. I simply said (maybe to much generalization for you) that any war scenario (conventional or nuke :roll:) would cause serious problem to Russian economy as important part of russian economy is based on internationa businnes (gas, oil,...).

I did NOT suggest any war. If you use your logic you will see quite opposite if anything.

EDIT: there would be much more serious problem to Russian economy than only luck of funds from export

[Derbedeu]

There will be no war between Russia and Belarus, I don't see why some of you need to take it this far.

Did you miss this part?


Besides, no country next to Belarus poses a threat to it.

That includes Russia, Poland, and any other country bordering Belarus.


This is purely a political conflict.

True, though politics often spills into other areas, like economics:


And so far, only Russia has "attacked" Belarus with the whole milk scandal (though they have withdrawn that).



It also doesn't make sense to me why a leader who has been an ally of the Russian Federation has suddenly and unexpectedly gone amok and scrapped everything that has been worked on between Russia and Belarus in the last fifteen years.

seems a little odd, don't you think, To me, personally it all smells of a political or government service operation of some sort. And no I cannot find you proofs, links, etc.. because there is no media source in the world that will tell you that. This is just my personal judgement of events, because some things are just not coming together. And we are here to discuss why.

It makes perfect sense. Lukashenko, so long as Belarus remains independent of both EU and Russia, is almost guaranteed to remain in power for life. Hypothetically speaking here, if Belarus forms even closer ties to Russia, the Lukashenko would have to rely on Russia's patronage to stay in power. If Belarus draws close to the EU, Lukashenko would have to give up some of his powers and have fair elections, in which he could always lose. There is no foreign power or government operating in Belarus. It's simply Lukashenko trying to keep a fine balance between his two powerful neighbors in order to retain his personal power (that's why I believe that even with this detente between Belarus and the EU you wont see anything close to Belarus applying for membership while Lukashenko is in power; hell a couple of weeks ago he pointedly declined an EU invitation to Prague).

[saturnin]

It makes perfect sense. Lukashenko, so long as Belarus remains independent of both EU and Russia, is almost guaranteed to remain in power for life. Hypothetically speaking here, if Belarus forms even closer ties to Russia, the Lukashenko would have to rely on Russia's patronage to stay in power. If Belarus draws close to the EU, Lukashenko would have to give up some of his powers and have fair elections, in which he could always lose. There is no foreign power or government operating in Belarus. It's simply Lukashenko trying to keep a fine balance between his two powerful neighbors in order to retain his personal power (that's why I believe that even with this detente between Belarus and the EU you wont see anything close to Belarus applying for membership while Lukashenko is in power; hell a couple of weeks ago he pointedly declined an EU invitation to Prague).

nice sum up

[Russianlynxy]

Did you miss this part?
It makes perfect sense. Lukashenko, so long as Belarus remains independent of both EU and Russia, is almost guaranteed to remain in power for life. Hypothetically speaking here, if Belarus forms even closer ties to Russia, the Lukashenko would have to rely on Russia's patronage to stay in power. If Belarus draws close to the EU, Lukashenko would have to give up some of his powers and have fair elections, in which he could always lose. There is no foreign power or government operating in Belarus. It's simply Lukashenko trying to keep a fine balance between his two powerful neighbors in order to retain his personal power (that's why I believe that even with this detente between Belarus and the EU you wont see anything close to Belarus applying for membership while Lukashenko is in power; hell a couple of weeks ago he pointedly declined an EU invitation to Prague).

Interesting analysis, didn't really look at it from this perspective. Although there is no guarantee that Luka won't take this "partnership" further. He may not be interested in joining the EU, after all, who's gonna buy all his milk? :) Although allowing foreign bases (particularly NATO) and militaries onto Belorussian territory could be another geopolitical defeat for Russia.

[zg18]

A much of Lukashenko's and Belarus positions is connected with situation in Ukraine ,if Ukraine gets some neutral/or slightly leaning pro-russian government (Timoshenko + Yanukovich) Luka's price will fall.

[sepheronx]

Interesting analysis, didn't really look at it from this perspective. Although there is no guarantee that Luka won't take this "partnership" further. He may not be interested in joining the EU, after all, who's gonna buy all his milk? :) Although allowing foreign bases (particularly NATO) and militaries onto Belorussian territory could be another geopolitical defeat for Russia.

If that was the case, then Russia would have to close ties and borders, then arm Kaliningrad area. And in that case, increase production of WMD's (even if it is too expensive).

[Russianlynxy]

A much of Lukashenko's and Belarus positions is connected with situation in Ukraine ,if Ukraine gets some neutral/or slightly leaning pro-russian government (Timoshenko + Yanukovich) Luka's price will fall.

That's what I think too, Ukraine is much more important. However as of right now we have neither Ukraine or Belarus as a close ally or partner.

I guess we'll wait and see if the EU turns down or approves Luak's barter for a loan. They have rejected Ukraine's pleas many times, as Ukraine needs to pay up it's gas debts again. We must also consider the EU does not have infinite funds for Eastern-European pet-projects. So I guess we'll see.

[zg18]

That's what I think too, Ukraine is much more important. However as of right now we have neither Ukraine or Belarus as a close ally or partner.

I guess we'll wait and see if the EU turns down or approves Luak's barter for a loan. They have rejected Ukraine's pleas many times, as Ukraine needs to pay up it's gas debts again. We must also consider the EU does not have infinite funds for Eastern-European pet-projects. So I guess we'll see.

Ukraine with it's 46 million population and in current state is only a heavy burden to EU , i don't think EU is capable to enlarge on Ukraine. We aren't talking about third world country here ,Ukraine has been and can be in the future industrial and agricultural giant. I personally think that Ukraine would be much better with firm military neutrality but seek economic growth jointly with Russia , very complementary economies, 300 years of history can't be deleted in few years like Yushchenko thought.

[sepheronx]

That's what I think too, Ukraine is much more important. However as of right now we have neither Ukraine or Belarus as a close ally or partner.

I guess we'll wait and see if the EU turns down or approves Luak's barter for a loan. They have rejected Ukraine's pleas many times, as Ukraine needs to pay up it's gas debts again. We must also consider the EU does not have infinite funds for Eastern-European pet-projects. So I guess we'll see.

I dunno, Belarus's only ally is Russia at the current moment. They got nobody else.

[Russianlynxy]

Ukraine with it's 46 million population and in current state is only a heavy burden to EU , i don't think EU is capable to enlarge on Ukraine. We aren't talking about third world country here ,Ukraine has been and can be in the future industrial and agricultural giant. I personally think that Ukraine would be much better with firm military neutrality but seek economic growth jointly with Russia , very complementary economies, 300 years of history can't be deleted in few years like Yushchenko thought.

Precisely, these two nations are part of the same machine. In fact a good amount of our steel and aviation industry and infrastucture was left in Ukraine, this severely hinders Russia's industrial capabilities today and Ukraine's ability to prosper economically.