India's Rising Tide

[josh21x]

India's Rising Tide

The rural poor fare better than in China.


(http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/#articleTabs=article)
By JOHN LEE (http://www.militaryphotos.net/search/search_center.html?KEYWORDS=JOHN+LEE&ARTICLESEARCHQUERY_PARSER=bylineAND) From today's Wall Street Journal Asia.

China and India will likely defy the economic malaise in Western economies and grow at more than 7% this year. But that is where the comparison should end. Contrary to popular hype, India is actually outpacing China where it counts most -- the economic growth of the rural poor.
Half of China's population and two-thirds of India's still live in rural areas -- roughly 700 million people in each country, most of whom remain poor. In China, the urban-rural income ratio has become increasingly disparate; it was 1.8 times more in the mid-1980s, 2.4 in the mid-1990s, 2.9 in 2001 and now around 3.5.
This trend starkly contrasts with the early years of Chinese economic reform. Over 80% of the poverty reduction in China occurred during Deng Xiaoping's reforms, between 1978 and 1988. Although per-capita incomes have risen since then, the net incomes of about 400 million people have declined over the past decade.
India started from a lower economic base but has made greater gains: Its urban-rural income gap has slowly but steadily declined since the early 1990s. Over the past decade, economic growth in rural India has outpaced growth in urban areas by almost 40%. Rural India now accounts for half of the country's GDP, up from 46% in 1993. Unlike the Chinese, rural Indians do not have to migrate to already crowded urban areas to earn a better living.
These trends mirror the path of economic reform in both nations. China had a huge head start in alleviating poverty. It began free-market reforms in 1978, while India only started on its current journey away from socialism toward a market-based system in the early 1990s. Since the turn of the century, India has been rapidly improving, but China has been getting worse. And since 2000, poverty and illiteracy in India have halved, while the same figures doubled in China.
The role of domestic consumption in the economy also demonstrates the divergent paths of these two developing giants. In China, domestic consumption as a proportion of GDP has fallen to 35% from around 60% in the 1980s. The Chinese "economic miracle" depends mostly on exports and state-led fixed investment. Even Beijing consistently admits this is an unbalanced, unsustainable strategy. Moreover, depressed consumption levels and correspondingly high levels of savings by the citizens of a still-poor country mean growth is uneven and benefits relatively few. In contrast, domestic consumption composes more than two-thirds of the Indian economy. India has a lot of catching up to do, but its poor are rising with the tide, unlike in China.
China's emphasis on state-led fixed-investment growth in urban areas may have fostered this trend, exacerbating inequality and heavily favoring a relatively small number of well-placed insiders. After the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre, Beijing decided the state should reassert its control of economic growth, which had rested on private-sector entrepreneurship. Before Tiananmen, private-sector investment growth in rural China was growing at 20% annually. After Tiananmen, it dropped to 7%. Hundreds of millions of Chinese have since missed out on the fruits of the country's spectacular growth.
The Chinese and Indian development models are not actually in competition, despite what newspaper headlines and books may suggest. But as magnificent as Shanghai now is, its shiny buildings have been built on the backs of peasants forced to deposit their savings into state-owned banks and receiving little in return. In contrast, India started its reforms 15 years later than China but is quietly and gradually building its base. Now that Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is starting his second term, he will do well to reject the dangerous appeal of the Chinese approach.
Mr. Lee is a foreign-policy fellow at the Centre for Independent Studies in Sydney, a visiting scholar at the Hudson Institute in Washington and the author of "Will China Fail?" (CIS, 2008).




http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124647192463381625.html

[josh21x]

I can vouch for the fact, that rural areas are progressin faster than urban@@!!!

[Ordie]

I can't say much about India.

But from what I personally saw in rural areas of China really sucked and shocking.

But I could imagine for both nations, that each is as strong as its weakest link.

[Narvaresearch]

Great news. There is much work to still be done, though.

[Ordie]

Great news. There is much work to still be done, though.

The key issues in India is improving the movement of goods from the farms into the cities. More specifically roads.

Another is the suicide rate of indebted Indian farmers.

[josh21x]

The key issues in India is improving the movement of goods from the farms into the cities. More specifically roads.

Another is the suicide rate of indebted Indian farmers.
Infrastructure is te main prorirty to govedrnmdent and money allocated durin te next 5 years!

Loans ofv farmers already forgiven!!

[P.Koschei]

Laughable article from someone with an incomplete grasp of fundamental economics, industrialization, and history. The rural poor in China are considerably better off than rural poor in India. According to the author's non-logic, because the rural residents have a lower ratio of income to urban residents in China vis-a-vis India, the Indian rural poor are better off. Anyone with eyes and a nose would know this is not true. The rural poor in China have shoes, those in India do not. Anyone who cannot understand the underlying symbolism and repercussions of this simple fact shouldn't even bother educating themselves further because it would be pointless. The rural poor in China also consume more higher quality protein and have higher overall caloric intakes than in India. That India's rate of urbanization is anaemic compared to China is not because of better poverty alleviation (India's rural poor are much poorer than China's), it is because India's cities are overflowing their carrying capacity and do not have the infrastructure to support more people. More critically, there is a dearth of sufficient jobs within the cities that fit the skillsets of India's rural poor, ergo more of India's farmers remain on their farms.

The cold hard truth is that rural poverty alleviation is a myth. It is a self-serving petty lie that condemns untold multitudes to perpetual poverty. There is simply not enough agricultural land given their prospective populations for peasants in China and India to be anything but poor. There is no way a family can make enough money off a half acre of land to move beyond subsistence level poverty. There is a reason why that in the developed states over 90% of their respective populations are urban and why only a miniscule percentage are engaged in farming. The small landholding farmer simply cannot earn a living off their labor. That a small percentage remains in the U.S. and Europe is not because they are anymore efficient, but because of massive subsidies directed at them paid for by the rest of society. This is the reason why a French farmer can be paid 100,000 Euros for producing two cows per year and why the same farmer in India would be struggling to feed his children on the same.

This article is reason number #287 why India will never catch up to China let alone overtake it. The Chinese recognize their problems and are actively seeking remedies and making rational choices given existing limitations on best how to proceed. The Indian brown sahibs and their Western enablers prefer to stick their heads in the sand like ostriches and pretend their problems don't exist and that they are already ahead while in reality India stagnates.

[josh21x]

Laughable article from someone with an incomplete grasp of fundamental economics, industrialization, and history. The rural poor in China are considerably better off than rural poor in India. According to the author's non-logic, because the rural residents have a lower ratio of income to urban residents in China vis-a-vis India, the Indian rural poor are better off. Anyone with eyes and a nose would know this is not true. The rural poor in China have shoes, those in India do not. Anyone who cannot understand the underlying symbolism and repercussions of this simple fact shouldn't even bother educating themselves further because it would be pointless. The rural poor in China also consume more higher quality protein and have higher overall caloric intakes than in India. That India's rate of urbanization is anaemic compared to China is not because of better poverty alleviation (India's rural poor are much poorer than China's), it is because India's cities are overflowing their carrying capacity and do not have the infrastructure to support more people. More critically, there is a dearth of sufficient jobs within the cities that fit the skillsets of India's rural poor, ergo more of India's farmers remain on their farms.

The cold hard truth is that rural poverty alleviation is a myth. It is a self-serving petty lie that condemns untold multitudes to perpetual poverty. There is simply not enough agricultural land given their prospective populations for peasants in China and India to be anything but poor. There is no way a family can make enough money off a half acre of land to move beyond subsistence level poverty. There is a reason why that in the developed states over 90% of their respective populations are urban and why only a miniscule percentage are engaged in farming. The small landholding farmer simply cannot earn a living off their labor. That a small percentage remains in the U.S. and Europe is not because they are anymore efficient, but because of massive subsidies directed at them paid for by the rest of society. This is the reason why a French farmer can be paid 100,000 Euros for producing two cows per year and why the same farmer in India would be struggling to feed his children on the same.

This article is reason number #287 why India will never catch up to China let alone overtake it. The Chinese recognize their problems and are actively seeking remedies and making rational choices given existing limitations on best how to proceed. The Indian brown sahibs and their Western enablers prefer to stick their heads in the sand like ostriches and pretend their problems don't exist and that they are already ahead while in reality India stagnates.


Firstly te article is written by chinese...te rest of your post horse puuckey!!!


post on a different forum by a noter poster on different issue


I humbly disagree with the content of the British article.If History is taken as a precedence as the author does, then it wont be China, but India that would dominate the future.This is nothing to do with being pro-Indian or anti-Chinese, but strictly by using the same yardstick which the author is using which is historical precedence.Strictly speaking,china's influence never reached beyond East Asia and even its limited influence in south east asia is nothing comparable to the historical Indian influence there.On the other hand, India's influence reached beyond Indian Subcontinent ('South Asia' in Anglo-American terms).Entire South East Asia including what is now called 'Indo-China' was called 'Greater India' for centuries.The Chinese never militarily penetrated any terrorities beyond Manchuria in the east and Xinjjiang in the west.In other words, today's china's borders (which was a gift of non-Han manchus who united the nation with current borders)are the greatest extent to which any chinese empire penetrated.On the other hand, Historical India was far larger and far powerful than historical china.Economically in the last 2000 years, Historical India was the World's largest economy for 1600 years, historical china mearly for 200 years.Militarily, Indian Empires in different time periods penetrated as far as Persia in the west during mauryan times and Indonesia-Malyasia in the east during the chola times.And Zheng He 's 'voyages' of attacking small coastal areas are nothing compared to the Chola's 'invasion's' of huge established empire and Kingdoms.In terms of ideas and culture, historical china itself is a recipient of historical India's superior idea's and culture.If you take historical precedence as yard stick, from every angle it will be India that would be dominant in Asia once again in the long term, not china IMVHO.




Absolutely! India has always been the primary culture of influence in Asia. Not China. Whats Chinese culture BTW? Even the Cambodians, Vietnamese, Japanese, Koreans admit to Indian influence on their cultures. Well Chinese even. There's no Han name for China! It comes from India too. Their growth is artificial. India in terms of GDP is where China was 7 years ago. China's rural income has declined in the last decade. It's GDP is externally driven. The West collapses China does too. China cannot say it's economy is 3 times INdia's and will remain so. When countries the mosnter size of India grow and double every 6 years or so, no one knows what they will look like or end up like in 20 years.

But whatr we know, India is technologically driving further again and far ahead of China. India has a solid percentage of GDP based on domestic consumption and demand. India has more livable land per capita than China. India has a younger population. Beter financial markets. People have learnt to get along in a democratic manner. And India has just started. It's taking off on the infrastructure front. Almost is catching up on the export figures, FDI and stuff.

In othger words, once again as history has proved, the entire Asia will look more to the INdia model than the command based Chinese one in the future. Once there's even some sor of banking collapse in China and the Yuan goes from 8 to 30 a dollar..we have overnight the Indian economy bigger in size than the Chinese..growing faster, growing with checks and balances and an open media..

China's angry because it selfishl wants to rise alone. It hates India-China comparison. Well sorry CCP lurkers. We're in he game. And will beat you. Nice and easy.

[P.Koschei]

John Lee is an Australian. Possibly of Chinese or Korean ancestry.

As for your copy pasta courtesy of the imbeciles at Bharat Rakshak, all I have to say is LOL. If the best argument you can muster against the fact that the Indian elite tend to be a conceited and delusional lot is more chauvinistic delusions then you've already proven my case and I don't really need to address you further.

[Solvent]

John Lee is an Australian. Possibly of Chinese or Korean ancestry.

As for your copy pasta courtesy of the imbeciles at Bharat Rakshak, all I have to say is LOL. If the best argument you can muster against the fact that the Indian elite tend to be a conceited and delusional lot is more chauvinistic delusions then you've already proven my case and I don't really need to address you further.

I think the John Lee is LOL too.

I don't know where his worsen theory comes form. Please read the this

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/2009/01/13/stories/2009011350060900.htm

[josh21x]

Aww, sour rapes syndrome, did someone at BR rip you a new one? , A person who gets his paper publised in WSJ to some random chicom guy on ze internet@!! yay!

[Solvent]

Aww, sour rapes syndrome, did someone at BR rip you a new one? , A person who gets his paper publised in WSJ to some random chicom guy on ze internet@!! yay!

Go ahead do the name calling game. That's funny

[Ordie]

I spent a week traveling throughout Shanxi provence last April. This specific area has been suffering through many years of drought. Much of the land was arid and dry. So much so that farmers have resorted to illegal coal mining on thier lands.

The northern part of the provence is highly polluted due to the high numbers of coal mines, coal power plants and iron foundaries. Many of the locals wears masks and the soot covers sunlight.

In talking with my guide in Shanxi, he was candid about how many in the rural areas feel they had contributed towards the China's urbanization and export driven economy, but feel resentful of getting little recognition and benefits from the Central Government.

There are also piss poor planning in investments. For example, the major motorway in Shanxi only connects cities bypassing the many towns and villages with no exits or on-ramps. Thus towns and villages not benefitting from the infrastructure improvements.

But most shocking was the gap between the urban rich and the rural poor. Both in development and socially. What shocked me was the discriminatory attitudes of urban Chinese towards thier rural cousins. I have seen police profile and shakedown rural laborers and visitors at Tienanamen Square rummaging through thier belonings, while ignoring the Western tourist with backpacks or locals with shopping bags.

I also saw how Urban people will talk down and treat rural laborers and even tourists (pensioners) by yelling at them.

Given the lack of a civil society and the rise of neo-aristocratic class system, I don't think China will ever reach its full potential.

[P.Koschei]

Chinese rich treat Chinese poor like crap. This isn't exactly a new phenomenon let alone unique to China. I don't even know if it is particularly worse than the patronizing sanctimony found in Western attitudes towards the poor.

You are completely wrong about the rise of a neo-aristocratic class however. China has extreme socio-economic mobility. Those urban rich were not rich 30 years ago, they may not have been rich 10 years ago. In fact, their attitudes are that of the nouveau rich. Those that have recently come into wealth with insecurity and desire to flaunt it. There is nothing more obnoxious than one of those aforementioned country poor you empathisize so much with who strikes it rich.

[bono]

China can make a start by not forcing people to apply for "immigration documents" to move within their own country. In India labor from dirt poor rural areas flows to whereever it can find best employment, sending back remittances to support hinterland villages, in China labor's movement is restricted and allows crook bureaucrats and business owners to exploit them mercilessly.

[Ordie]

China can make a start by not forcing people to apply for "immigration documents" to move within their own country. In India labor from dirt poor rural areas flows to whereever it can find best employment, sending back remittances to support hinterland villages, in China labor's movement is restricted and allows crook bureaucrats and business owners to exploit them mercilessly.

Its called the Hukuo System. It prevents internal rural migrants from seeking equal entitlements and rights as compared to the locals.

Oddly enough, PRC Passport holders abroad must apply for a PRC visa before returning home.

[pg_ord]

Its called the Hukuo System. It prevents internal rural migrants from seeking equal entitlements and rights as compared to the locals.

Oddly enough, PRC Passport holders abroad must apply for a PRC visa before returning home.
What ??? What good is a PRC passport without PRC visa then ?? Ordie you are putting out some startling facts out there .... seriously is it applicable to all PRC citizens?? They don't let their own citizens comeback home ?? .... looks like they treat every citizen as a traitor.

[Ordie]

What ??? What good is a PRC passport without PRC visa then ?? Ordie you are putting out some startling facts out there .... seriously is it applicable to all PRC citizens?? They don't let their own citizens comeback home ?? .... looks like they treat every citizen as a traitor.

Yep

Most get a multi-entry visas and have the travel agency do the work.

However, when you wait in line to get a PRC visa, you'll notice many already have PRC passports.

[Solvent]

Oddly enough, PRC Passport holders abroad must apply for a PRC visa before returning home.

It's not true.

[BearInBunnySuit]

Yep

Most get a multi-entry visas and have the travel agency do the work.

However, when you wait in line to get a PRC visa, you'll notice many already have PRC passports.

That makes no sense. Maybe they were in line for other things because I've never heard that from any Chinese friends I know. In fact, I'm going to have dinner with a mainland Chinese friend of our family, will ask him about that when I see him.

[Solvent]

That makes no sense. Maybe they were in line for other things because I've never heard that from any Chinese friends I know. In fact, I'm going to have dinner with a mainland Chinese friend of our family, will ask him about that when I see him.


I am a Chinese passport holder. I never heard and never applied a China VISA.

[Ordie]

I am a Chinese passport holder. I never heard and never applied a China VISA.

I stand corrected: According to the PRC Consulate a Chinese citizen can enter China without a visa.

[pg_ord]

I stand corrected: According to the PRC Consulate a Chinese citizen can enter China without a visa.
Okay ..... do they still need a permit to travel internally??

[Ordie]

Okay ..... do they still need a permit to travel internally??

I don't know.
However it is the case that one does not become an automatic local resident when moving into the city. That means the mirgant worker is not entitled to local public health care, public education, public jobs and even public housing.

But outside home of record municipalities are starting to set up government services for its migrant workers in other cities. For example, a rural city in Hunan may set up a branch public clinic, public schools, and services for its residents in Beijing or Shanghai.

[pg_ord]

I don't know.
However it is the case that one does not become an automatic local resident when moving into the city. That means the mirgant worker is not entitled to local public health care, public education, public jobs and even public housing.

But outside home of record municipalities are starting to set up government services for its migrant workers in other cities. For example, a rural city in Hunan may set up a branch public clinic, public schools, and services for its residents in Beijing or Shanghai.

Okay I was curious because in soviet russia IIRC they needed internal passports to move around the country .... but even in the case here in US for US citizens .... one needs to apply for a local driving license to become the resident of a particular state and derive tax benifits etc etc.....and not to mention eligibility to vote in a particular state?? Do you you have ay idea how this system is different from Chinese??

PS: I have little understanding of bureaucracy (however little that exists) in US ... even though I have stayed in US for about 4 years p-).

[Drage]

Its called the Hukuo System. It prevents internal rural migrants from seeking equal entitlements and rights as compared to the locals.

Oddly enough, PRC Passport holders abroad must apply for a PRC visa before returning home.


Yep

Most get a multi-entry visas and have the travel agency do the work.

However, when you wait in line to get a PRC visa, you'll notice many already have PRC passports.


I stand corrected: According to the PRC Consulate a Chinese citizen can enter China without a visa.

seriously Ordie, you need help

I find it interesting , yet disturbing that you made that statement on the first place

[Narvaresearch]

seriously Ordie, you need help

I find it interesting , yet disturbing that you made that statement on the first place

He corrected himself. Lighten up.

[hulaku]

John Lee is an Australian. Possibly of Chinese or Korean ancestry.

As for your copy pasta courtesy of the imbeciles at Bharat Rakshak, all I have to say is LOL. If the best argument you can muster against the fact that the Indian elite tend to be a conceited and delusional lot is more chauvinistic delusions then you've already proven my case and I don't really need to address you further.

Got a lot of love over there did you cc?

[TheMiddlePath]

I spent a week traveling throughout Shanxi provence last April. This specific area has been suffering through many years of drought. Much of the land was arid and dry. So much so that farmers have resorted to illegal coal mining on thier lands.

The northern part of the provence is highly polluted due to the high numbers of coal mines, coal power plants and iron foundaries. Many of the locals wears masks and the soot covers sunlight.

In talking with my guide in Shanxi, he was candid about how many in the rural areas feel they had contributed towards the China's urbanization and export driven economy, but feel resentful of getting little recognition and benefits from the Central Government.

There are also piss poor planning in investments. For example, the major motorway in Shanxi only connects cities bypassing the many towns and villages with no exits or on-ramps. Thus towns and villages not benefitting from the infrastructure improvements.

But most shocking was the gap between the urban rich and the rural poor. Both in development and socially. What shocked me was the discriminatory attitudes of urban Chinese towards thier rural cousins. I have seen police profile and shakedown rural laborers and visitors at Tienanamen Square rummaging through thier belonings, while ignoring the Western tourist with backpacks or locals with shopping bags.

I also saw how Urban people will talk down and treat rural laborers and even tourists (pensioners) by yelling at them.

Given the lack of a civil society and the rise of neo-aristocratic class system, I don't think China will ever reach its full potential.

Europeans also treat poorer Europeans the same but with more violence.

http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/europe/06/21/nireland.romanians.attacks/index.html

http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/showpost.php?p=4206505&postcount=2

[TheMiddlePath]

Its called the Hukuo System. It prevents internal rural migrants from seeking equal entitlements and rights as compared to the locals.

Oddly enough, PRC Passport holders abroad must apply for a PRC visa before returning home.


The Hukuo system is to prevent the cities infrastructure, sewage system etc to be blog down by uncontrol immigration to the cities. To prevent slums, shanty towns etc.
Hukuo allows an orderly way for a city to grow.
Every year China move more and more people to the cities as infrastructure and social system improves.

I know you know the real reason for the Hukuo.

[josh21x]

The Hukuo system is to prevent the cities infrastructure, sewage system etc to be blog down by uncontrol immigration to the cities. To prevent slums, shanty towns etc.
Hukuo allows an orderly way for a city to grow.
Every year China move more and more people to the cities as infrastructure and social system improves.

I know you know the real reason for the Hukuo.


That doesnt make it right or humane son!

[Ordie]

The Hukuo system is to prevent the cities infrastructure, sewage system etc to be blog down by uncontrol immigration to the cities. To prevent slums, shanty towns etc.
Hukuo allows an orderly way for a city to grow.
Every year China move more and more people to the cities as infrastructure and social system improves.

I know you know the real reason for the Hukuo.

It's a system akin to Aparthied.
The Hukuo system is one of the many institutionalized program that contributes to the growing divisions within China. Some cities are already scrapping the system as accomodate the rapid upward mobility and competitiveness.

From what I saw, many major employers provides room and boarding. Though spartian and cramped, it's better than a shantytown.

[ggk]

although i agree theres a good effort from the Indian side in trying to improve the poor rural people....yet what is the purpose and what can be gained by comparing it with china? Its useless.

Improving the life of your own countrymen is not a contest...

[pg_ord]

Improving the life of your own countrymen is not a contest...

......x2

12345665433

[Lala_Peace]

I think I can give a better prospective of India's rural life than many of us here. I have spent my schooling till 10th in villages of Orissa and the degree in the naxalite affected hinterland. You must know my state is the second poorest sate in India. What I can say is that things are improving fast though corruption is pulling things back. As a person from a rural India that to from the poorest part of India, I can say that govt. is taking solid steps to better infrastructure, health care delivery and education in rural areas. Thanks to telecom boom, I see a resurgent rural India for some time. They have been demanding, aware about the happenings in the corridors of power (I will say they are the most politically active population in the world).

[TheMiddlePath]

It's a system akin to Aparthied.
The Hukuo system is one of the many institutionalized program that contributes to the growing divisions within China. Some cities are already scrapping the system as accomodate the rapid upward mobility and competitiveness.

From what I saw, many major employers provides room and boarding. Though spartian and cramped, it's better than a shantytown.


Again your comparison of the Hukuo to aparthied is insulting.
In any system where demand exceed the supply, there are abuse.
Even a guy in charge of distributing forms that are in short supply can start to get corky.

By expanding towns and cities is the way to increase supply and kill the abuse.

[TheMiddlePath]

I think I can give a better prospective of India's rural life than many of us here. I have spent my schooling till 10th in villages of Orissa and the degree in the naxalite affected hinterland. You must know my state is the second poorest sate in India. What I can say is that things are improving fast though corruption is pulling things back. As a person from a rural India that to from the poorest part of India, I can say that govt. is taking solid steps to better infrastructure, health care delivery and education in rural areas. Thanks to telecom boom, I see a resurgent rural India for some time. They have been demanding, aware about the happenings in the corridors of power (I will say they are the most politically active population in the world).


Good for India. Wish you all the best. India need to find it own way to prosperity and not to blindly copy policies that are alien to India culture and circimstances.

[Narvaresearch]

TheMiddlePath, your name is just so ironic for some of your posts here. :roll:

It's not a competetion to improve the lives of the poor, I agree.