NKorea fires missiles; launch toward US feared

[BigDukaroo]

SEOUL, South Korea – North Korea fired a barrage of short-range missiles off its east coast Thursday, a possible prelude to the launch of a long-range missile toward Hawaii over the July Fourth holiday.

Firing a ballistic missile on Independence Day would be a challenge to Washington, which has been rallying international support for enforcement of U.N. sanctions imposed against Pyongyang following a May 25 nuclear test. North Korea is banned from testing ballistic missiles under U.N. resolutions.

Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Takeo Kawamura said Thursday that a long-range missile launch this weekend was possible. "We cannot rule out the possibility," he said, citing Pyongyang's past behavior.

In 2006, North Korea launched its most advanced Taepodong 2 missile while the U.S. celebrated Independence Day, though the rocket fizzled shortly after takeoff and fell into the ocean.

Pentagon spokesman Bryan Whitman said the United States remains concerned about North Korea's missile and nuclear programs but called Thursday's launches "not unexpected."

Several U.S. Defense Department officials said there is nothing to indicate that North Korea is ready to launch a long-range ballistic missile and there appears to be no immediate threat to the United States.

The April 5 launch of a Taepodong-2 required 12 days of preparation on the launch pad, which was fully observable to U.S. satellites. Short and medium-range missiles, however, can be launched with little notice.

Missile defenses around Hawaii were beefed up following a mid-June report in a Japanese newspaper that the North might fire a long-range missile toward the islands in early July.

The head of the U.S. Northern Command, Gen. Victor E. "Gene" Renuart, said in an interview with the Washington Times this week that U.S. missile defenses are prepared to knock down any incoming North Korean missile. "I think we ought to assume there might be one on the Fourth of July," he said, according to the paper.

North Korea raised concern in late April when it explicitly threatened to test-fire an intercontinental ballistic missile and warned of a nuclear test. The regime followed through with the atomic blast in May, leaving the ICBM test as its next likely step.

"I totally expect that we will see another long-range missile launch ... because they said they will do it," Ralph Cossa, president of the Pacific Forum CSIS think tank, told The Associated Press from Beijing where he was attending a nonproliferation conference.

The North's April launch, which is estimated to have sent a rocket about 2,000 miles (3,200 kilometers), represented a "significant advance" in the country's long-range rocket technology, the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists said in a recent report.

South Korea believes the Taepodong 2 can travel at least 4,100 miles (6,700 kilometers), putting Alaska and Guam within striking distance. The North is also believed to be developing an advanced version of the Taepodong 2 that could reach not only Hawaii, but also the West Coast of the U.S. with a potential range of about 5,000 miles (8,000 kilometers).

Pyongyang had earlier marked a large area of water off its east coast as a no-sail zone through July 10, citing military drills. Thursday's launches of four short-range missiles were believed to be the North's first military action in the designated zone.

Yonhap news agency, citing an unnamed military official, reported that all four missiles flew about 60 miles (100 kilometers) and identified them as KN-01 missiles with a range of up to 100 miles (160 kilometers).

Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso denounced the launches as "provocative."

South Korea's foreign minister, Yu Myung-hwan, said the firings are "not a good sign because they are demonstrating their military power."

South Korean analysts were skeptical about the possibility of a long-range launch anytime soon.

Koh Yu-hwan, a professor at Seoul's Dongguk University, said he expects the North will take more time to assess international reaction to its recent pledge to expand its nuclear program.

Tensions over North Korea's actions come as its leader Kim Jong Il has reportedly been laying the groundwork to hand power over to one of his sons, and as two American journalists were imprisoned for illegal border crossing and hostile acts.

Analysts predict the North will continue its provocative acts in an attempt to command world attention that can lead to economic benefits.

"I think what North Korea will continue to do is ratchet up the tension," said Brad Glosserman, another analyst at the CSIS think tank. "It needs that attention to get the concessions from other countries ... as well as to demonstrate its strength to domestic constituencies."

President Barack Obama has vowed the U.S. won't make the same mistake of rewarding North Korea's bad behavior, and his administration has been pressing China — a key North Korean ally — to enforce the new U.N. sanctions against Pyongyang.

In an interview with The Associated Press Thursday, Obama said he was trying to "keep a door open" for North Korea to return to international nuclear disarmament talks, but the country must abandon its nuclear weapons programs before it can join the world community.

Philip Goldberg, in charge of coordinating the implementation of sanctions against the North, told reporters in Beijing that he had "very good conversations" with Chinese officials Thursday, though did not give details of the talks .
Source (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090702/ap_on_re_as/as_nkorea_missile)....

[Kit]

Where are they getting the gall to attack the military superpower of the world? I have a hard time believing that a government is collectively that insane.

[spider1]

Its unlikely they will disarm themself because their nukes are important to protect the regime and its also unlikely that they will fire a missile on the US.

[Scriptable]

Where are they getting the gall to attack the military superpower of the world?
They know they have China's backing which ensures the U.S. will avoid a military solution.

[spider1]

I dont think the US would attack a country with nukes, they would only if they start a war(NK).

[tbk107]

They know they have China's backing which ensures the U.S. will avoid a military solution.

I'd say that the U.S. would be more concerned with the South Koreans then China. Why risk having this nut job attack SK over a missile that lands in the pacific?

[Elbs]

He'll get a Minuteman for his troubles if one of his Taepodongs lands near the west coast

[Scriptable]

He'll get a Minuteman for his troubles if one of his Taepodongs lands near the west coast
More likely another watered-down UN resolution.

[SBL]

'launch toward the US feared'? What does that mean, an eastward trajectory?


Sounds like sensationalism to me.

[Elbs]

More likely another watered-down UN resolution.

Unfortunately yeah.

[NUCKINFUTS]

I dont think the US would attack a country with nukes, they would only if they start a war(NK).

What do you mean "only if they start a war(NK).

Two damn wars and everyone thinks we are international bullies. Everything you said was stereotyped.

[GBob]

N korea is just long spoiled in the international community, it becomes unbridled to human justice and even its own people's lives. it looks like N korea can't learn from history, it has to be once again educated then.

[spider1]

What do you mean "only if they start a war(NK).

Two damn wars and everyone thinks we are international bullies. Everything you said was stereotyped.
I said that the US will not attack them if they will not attack other countries.

[Derbedeu]

N korea is just long spoiled in the international community, it becomes unbridled to human justice and even its own people's lives. it looks like N korea can't learn from history, it has to be once again educated then.

You've echoed my sentiments exactly and it's unfortunate that their support in the UN has come from Russia and especially China, who only recently have come to the realization that perhaps it's not good having a despotic and rogue nuclear-powered nation as a neighbor.

[SilentType]

Short of an actual attack on the United States they know they can get away with anything with Obama. They can build nukes all day long and launch mid range and long range missiles all day long. Obama will never act and in fact has pledged to end multiple missile defense programs that haven't even had a chance to mature in R&D yet. Insane.

We could destroy North Korea in short order if we had the will. Their military would be the ideal dream come true for our military, which has weapons systems and senior officers who have all been geared toward cold war conventional type fights. Their rust bucket military and dependence on central control would help us finish them off faster than the invasion of Iraq (which probably would have been faster if not for the dust storms).

It would be a nice change of pace from insurgency. There is the enemy, kill him. With South Korea you've got a ready made civilized government to pass off too in short order with the same relative culture and language. North Koreans making Kia cars in a year with full stomachs would definitely win hearts and minds.

[Scriptable]

Short of an actual attack on the United States they know they can get away with anything with Obama.
????

I don't recall the previous administration launching any military action against North Korea.

[GBob]

You've echoed my sentiments exactly and it's unfortunate that their support in the UN has come from Russia and especially China, who only recently have come to the realization that perhaps it's not good having a despotic and rogue nuclear-powered nation as a neighbor.
wiping out a rogue regime like NK would always deadly shake other dictatorships ruling. you could never imagine how scared and panic the above rogues were, almost sh!tting their pants when Sadam of Iraq was overthrown and hanged. They will viciously struggle to stay in power, while prefer taking the risk of each other's nuclear pwr to being threaten by the force of human conscience. there got to be someone fulfilling a justice to maintain world order if UN can not make it. It is ridiculous to keep world in a balance like this between rogues and free world.

[SilentType]

????

I don't recall the previous administration launching any military action against North Korea.

I think until 2006 when the Congress became controlled by the Democrats the North Koreans did exercise restraint (at least for them). I believe that they were uncertain whether the U.S. would launch military operations at that time under the Bush Administration. Since that point I believe they have ramped up their missile and nuclear programs along with defiance against the West.

Anyone who doesn't think the North hasn't become more aggressive these last few months under our new President who belongs to a party with a strong anti-war base is kidding themselves.

While Bush didn't conduct military operations against the North his Administration did help put in place what missile defense we have today. A missile defense system that Obama has pledged to do away with in part.

[Blue_0]

Dropping one on the USA on the 4th of July is a fantastic way to get a reaction. Problem is, no one is going to know exactly what the reaction is going to be.

-- Bluelight

[budgie]

They know they have China's backing which ensures the U.S. will avoid a military solution.


If they actually attacked the US, China wouldn't protect them anymore. Does China want to risk a war with the US just to prop up a basket-case on its border? There's only so far they'll go this time.

[Scriptable]

If they actually attacked the US, China wouldn't protect them anymore. Does China want to risk a war with the US just to prop up a basket-case on its border?
China perceives North Korea as a critical buffer and necessary for internal stability and national security. See:



North Korea, the Next Iraq?

China and Russia rely on North Korea as a buffer state between themselves and the dangerously appealing middle-class, vibrant, pro-American democracy that is South Korea. China, moreover, would face perhaps millions of North Korean refugees streaming across its border were the North Korean regime to crumble. Seeking to stem this possibility, China continues to prop up the buffer state of North Korea.

http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200905u/nuclear-test-kaplan
China tries to encourage a belligerent North Korea:


China: Fearing a U.S.-North Korean Thaw

North Korea is a critical component of China's buffer strategy. China has significant land borders and so has created a system of buffers to protect the heartland around the Yellow, Yangtze and Pearl rivers. This buffer zone was created over the course of China's history and includes Manchuria, Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang and Tibet, among other parts of China. It offers strategic depth and supplements China's defense forces with natural barriers.

Historically, China viewed Korea as part of this buffer zone, even if it was not formally part of the Chinese nation. During the Korean War, the fear of losing North Korea as a strategic buffer to U.S. forces triggered Chinese intervention. And while Washington is currently not threatening to march up to the Yalu, China's need for North Korea as a strategic buffer remains strong. A saying used by the Chinese during the Korean War maintains that relations between China and North Korea are as close as lips and teeth: When the lips are gone, the teeth get cold. When North Korea ceases to be a friendly buffer state, China accordingly gets nervous and feels vulnerable.

http://www.stratfor.com/china_fearing_u_s_north_korean_thaw

[xav]

Technically they could reach Pearl Harbor, but truth is their ICBMS never made it very much farther than Japan.

[budgie]

China perceives North Korea as a critical buffer and necessary for internal stability and national security. See:


Of course they do but their protection can only extend so far. If NKorea does something drastic I doubt they can count on China's support. At the start of the cold war it was ideology-driven, now it's geo-politics. It's not 1953 anymore and China will not go to war with the US for the sole purpose of preserving that regime. Stakes are higher these days.

As for encouraging belligerence, that's pure opinion. They may not do enough to discourage them but having an erratic regime on their border is not nearly as attractive as a stable client.






Anyone who doesn't think the North hasn't become more aggressive these last few months under our new President who belongs to a party with a strong anti-war base is kidding themselves.

While Bush didn't conduct military operations against the North his Administration did help put in place what missile defense we have today. A missile defense system that Obama has pledged to do away with in part.

You may be viewing this the wrong way: rather than taking the Rush Limbaugh tack (Obama's a pussy so the enemy will try and bait the US), consider the long view: NKorea has a history of probing whenever there's a shift in the political winds either in the US or SKorea or Japan, even China and Russia as part of the six-party negotiations. They'll always manufacture an incident to test political responses and as a prelude to whatever diplomatic bargaining they'll have to eventually take with new administrations. This is typical and needn't be sold as another Obama 'Carter moment'.

[asch]

China and Russia rely on North Korea as a buffer state between themselves and the dangerously appealing middle-class, vibrant, pro-American democracy that is South Korea.
that's a piece of bull****.

[Noble713]

Short of an actual attack on the United States they know they can get away with anything with Obama. They can build nukes all day long and launch mid range and long range missiles all day long. Obama will never act and in fact has pledged to end multiple missile defense programs that haven't even had a chance to mature in R&D yet. Insane.

Agreed.


We could destroy North Korea in short order if we had the will. Their military would be the ideal dream come true for our military, which has weapons systems and senior officers who have all been geared toward cold war conventional type fights.

Largely agreed.


Their rust bucket military and dependence on central control would help us finish them off faster than the invasion of Iraq (which probably would have been faster if not for the dust storms).

Strongly disagree. Iraq cannot be used as a "typical" example of how an invasion will play out, even though we've done it twice. Iraq has the unique combination of terrain ideal for our style of warfare and a military that was utterly incompetent from top to bottom. We can't assume that the Koreans are anywhere near as braindead, and the terrain is definitely MUCH worse.


With South Korea you've got a ready made civilized government to pass off too in short order with the same relative culture and language. North Koreans making Kia cars in a year with full stomachs would definitely win hearts and minds.

Strongly disagree again. As I'm sure our German members here can attest to, it took the better part of a decade to integrate the Eastern and Western economies, and the disparity in GDP/capita between the two Germanies was FAR smaller than the disparity between the two Koreas.

The South Korean leadership is reasonably content with the (non-nuclear) status quo on the peninsula because they are aware that absorbing the North's population and territory would probably wreck their otherwise-decent economy.

[tea drinker]

NK probably just yanking US chain to spoil all the good fun.
Still, all the new defence toys should be taken out in case they get a chance to be tested.

[Morboute]

????

I don't recall the previous administration launching any military action against North Korea.


no, but you see, people have to take every oppertunity they get to blame it on Obama, because he is evil. :roll:

[Vapourstreak]

some people take every opportunity to blame china , too > _ > .

i don`t think protecting a 'buffer state' is worth risking a war with the united states military ..

lately , china`s also been a bit concerned with north korea`s nuclear programme , too .

i don`t think north korea will launch an attack anywhere , because they`ll be risking a war with the us (no matter what country they hit) , and the allies (unless they`re too busy in afghanistan ?)

[GBob]

some people take every opportunity to blame china , too > _ > .

i don`t think protecting a 'buffer state' is worth risking a war with the united states military ..

lately , china`s also been a bit concerned with north korea`s nuclear programme , too .

i don`t think north korea will launch an attack anywhere , because they`ll be risking a war with the us (no matter what country they hit) , and the allies (unless they`re too busy in afghanistan ?)
China should be absolutely blamed for every single trouble caused by N Korea since it created this little monster.

[Vapourstreak]

.. how ? (10 character minimum)

[GBob]

.. how ? (10 character minimum)

You suppose to go back to school in a big way, starting all over your history. No doubt you didn't get real education back China, I wonder what they stuffed in your brain those years.

[Vapourstreak]

blahlahblah .

[GBob]

i`m ****ing canadian , asswhipe .

You sure you're doin that! well, I don't really care who you are fvcking now, but we do have some canadians here, watch out or you get gang-raped.

[Vapourstreak]

ohhkay , you know what , this is effed .

let`s just continue the discussion :

i don`t think n.korea will have enough courage to launch a missile attack . i think they have the capabilities , though .

[BearInBunnySuit]

capabilities to launch something which imacts somewhere: yes.

problem is not all that. problem is the dug-in arty aimed on Seoul, alongside the DMZ, and the lack of a probable solution if there's a change to the NK regime comes.

I wonder whether there is a way to neutralize those artillery units along the DMZ? The only thing I can think of is a preemptive strike which is highly unlikely.

[Vapourstreak]

if anyone even tries to touch anything n.korean , they`ll call it an act of war ..

[BearInBunnySuit]

Ive been an artillery spotter in my younger days, and i served along WarPac systems, such as the D-20 Arty gun, and the 2S1 Gvozdika Self-Propelled Gun. These (alongside multiple-launched rockets like the BM-21) not only guns with big ammunition. These are complex and rather complicated - in a soviet way of thinking - systems. And some very serious calculations are needed before initiating a single shot. I am also not so sure that ammo is packed within reach of ordinary NK conscripts.

Not to mention, the guns cannot fire, if the arty bn's HQ cannot send them the co-ordinates of targets in a timely fashion. Also, an arty duel is not very likely, because dug-in units hardly can move out, which is essential, for any SK/US arty computer could easily track coordinates of all NK arty pieces after (and its only the worst case) their first shots. In two minutes they couldn't exist anymore after.

So in layman's lingo, it is possible for the ROK/U.S. forces to neutralize them if they are so inclined?

[Vapourstreak]

but isn`t that only the arty ? can`t they launch their other weapons after ?

[BearInBunnySuit]

my personal opinion is that NK could be neutralized tru pure international politics (that's UN Security Council), and an paralelling and well-orchestrated mid-to-long-term humanitarian action.

militarily, this question only could be answered upon the latest intel, which obviously i don't have;)

If I knew that humanitarian aid and diplomacy could be even remotely effective in neutralizing N. Korea, I would be all for it. But the ROK tried that for about 10 years under the "Sunshine Policy" and unfortunately, the results were less than satisfactory.

[Vapourstreak]

i was kinda thinking nukes launched from n.korea to the rok or elsewhere ?

[Vapourstreak]

LOL , yea , i`m kim jong in disguise : O .

fire up the rockets , boys !

seriously , though , don`t you think they have them ?

[Vapourstreak]

ohh , sorry . i don`t really know much about this kind of stuff :S .

[okiebugg]

my personal opinion is that NK could be neutralized tru pure international politics (that's UN Security Council), and an paralelling and well-orchestrated mid-to-long-term humanitarian action.

I know that NK is inflexible and attention seeking. Kim Jong ilk is a despot cowering under the umbrella and protection of the Chi-Coms.

I will not however think nor believe that the United nations is more than a useless paper tiger....... Both pacifistic and anti-war. Appeasement is their stock and trade. The United Nations cannot and will not ever try to neutralize anything or anyone.

In the event of another missle launch over the Pacific, the US needs to man-up and destroy it.

[BearInBunnySuit]

"Sunshine Policy" was -afaik- a ROK effort to back up Her national security needs. But avoiding the largest humanitarian crisis ever could be something many nations will consider as Her own national security need. And that only could turn the tables.

In theory, that's is true. But as far as I can tell, giving billions of dollars without any strings attached to a country which puts its military above all else probably wasn't the smartest move since the funds/aid were used to prop up a 1-million man strong force with their guns pointed at the ROK's back.

[PaulClift]

"launch towards US feared".

I once threw a stone towards Scotland, it never got there.

[okiebugg]

i wrote United Nations Security Council. Thats USA, Russia, China.... rings a bell?

I don't personally care who is or is not a part of the UN NSC. Votes mostly end in a global stalemate and nothing is resolved.

The time for the UN is come and gone until and unless the big three can begin to agree on resolutions put before it