China's stunning rebound from the financial crisis

[Shuimo]

Surely good news for struggling economies in the world!


July 16, 2009

Beijing - China's economy grew 7.9 percent in the second quarter of 2009, the government said Thursday, in a stunning turnaround for the Asian powerhouse that offered some hope for the rest of the world.

With help from $580 billion in government pump priming, the world's third biggest economy picked up pace again after the global economic crisis dragged growth down to 6.1 percent in the first quarter.

"The economy is rebounding and the strength of the recovery is increasing," National Bureau Spokesman Li Xiaochao said at a media briefing to release the data.

China's gross domestic product grew by 7.1 percent in the first half of 2009 compared with the same period a year earlier, according to the bureau.

This put China back on track to achieve its goal of 8.0 percent growth for the year, despite the financial crisis hitting its crucial export sector particularly hard.

Analysts said the rebound in China would offer a boost of confidence for the global economy as it struggles out of the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

"China is the first big country to have made a strong comeback, so its rebound will definitely offer a stabilising signal for the world economy," said He Jun, a Beijing-based analyst with the Anbound Consulting research group.

However, He and other analysts cautioned that immediate and direct benefits would be limited to countries that import heavily into China, chiefly resource-rich exporters and neighbouring nations in Asia.

Before the global economic crisis struck, China experienced double-digit annual growth from 2003 to 2007, and again for the first two quarters of last year.

To fight the downturn, the government began implementing a four-trillion-yuan ($580-billion) stimulus package from November last year.

Li described the impact of the package as "remarkable", but he also warned pitfalls lay ahead amid concerns of bubbles in real estate and other key sectors.
http://www.busrep.co.za/index.php?fSectionId=565&fArticleId=5085779

[Sashko]

Easy to rebound when you have 700 million people working for buck a day :roll: Lack of out-of-control greedy unions helps as well...

[josh21x]

operative word : "The government said"

[Delay]

lol @ responses

Welcome back Shuimo.

[DarthJesus]

This could be a case of a successful stimulus by the Chinese government. Or it could be viewed as a massive malinvestment of resources into non-productive areas like factories producing goods no one is buying with the sole aim of keeping people working to stave off social unrest.

Whatever your view it will be apparent by the end of the year which case is true.

[2Sheds_Jackson]

I don't buy it. How many of those 50,000 factories have re-opened? If things rebounded this fast and this vigorously, then there was never a need for a stimulus to begin with. So either they lied then, or they're lying now.

[Solvent]

I don't buy it. How many of those 50,000 factories have re-opened? If things rebounded this fast and this vigorously, then there was never a need for a stimulus to begin with. So either they lied then, or they're lying now.

In fact, the package helped a lot.

[matthew.manhorn]

In fact, the package helped a lot.

Hong Kong's doing well by the package as well, my mom just earned loads from the stock market yesterday.

[Panchito12]

50,000 factories reopened, goods were made....but nobody bought them.

Stuff is just sitting around.

Hey Shuimo! Go into the long-term storage business over there in Chicomland!!!

[RIPTIDE]

Surely good news for struggling economies in the world!


This put China back on track to achieve its goal of 8.0 percent growth for the year, despite the financial crisis hitting its crucial export sector particularly hard.Shuimo... before you asked what I meant by 8% been the magic number in CHina. There you have it. If its below 8% = massive civil unrest. I hope for your sake its not. :)

[FullMetalJackass]

Yeah ports in the US are still way under normal shipping traffic, so who is buying their junk?

[RIPTIDE]

And furthermore I remember reading that the central government are FORCING banks to lend massive amounts of cash to keep the thing turning. Cash that should never be lent under the circumstances. Whats the exposure now of the Chinese banks? It running in the tens of billions.

[Laworkerbee]

You'd be a damned fool to invest in the Chinese stock market, of which I have no doubt that American traders are probably doing so on a big scale.

Another bubble cometh :|

[SBL]

You'd be a damned fool to invest in the Chinese stock market, of which I have no doubt that American traders are probably doing so on a big scale.

Another bubble cometh :|
George Soros said it's all good, man.

[Raptus_regaliter]

And furthermore I remember reading that the central government are FORCING banks to lend massive amounts of cash to keep the thing turning. Cash that should never be lent under the circumstances. Whats the exposure now of the Chinese banks? It running in the tens of billions.

Bingo!
Somebody finally got it.

[Solvent]

And furthermore I remember reading that the central government are FORCING banks to lend massive amounts of cash to keep the thing turning. Cash that should never be lent under the circumstances. Whats the exposure now of the Chinese banks? It running in the tens of billions.

The government is the boss of the banks. Banks don't care too much about the risks. Besides that, how do you think the money get into the market? Isn't US gov urging its banks to loan more as well?

[RIPTIDE]

The government is the boss of the banks. Banks don't care too much about the risks. Besides that, how do you think the money get into the market? Isn't US gov urging its banks to loan more as well?
There is a difference between urging and forcing. The banks in CHina are seperate entities with their own goals.... goals which involve making money. I'm not talking about Central Bank here. I'm talking about private commercial banks.
The banks care about the risk as much as any other bank does. When their clients can't pay back the billions of lent money... they are the ones taking it in the neck.

[Solvent]

There is a difference between urging and forcing. The banks in CHina are seperate entities with their own goals.... goals which involve making money. I'm not talking about Central Bank here. I'm talking about private commercial banks.
The banks care about the risk as much as any other bank does. When their clients can't pay back the billions of lent money... they are the ones taking it in the neck.

I am not talking central bank either, the the biggest shareholder of the four major commercial banks is the government. Yes, they are state-owned banks. You can consider the heads of the banks gov officials too. These banks are the extensions of the government. I guess US gov probably is jealous of China counterparts that they don't have power to force banks to loan more.

Of course, they care about risks too. But the policies from gov are powerful as well. If the big boys get trouble because of this, let's see if the gov will lend a hand to them.

[RIPTIDE]

I am not talking central bank either, the the biggest shareholder of the four major commercial banks is the government. Yes, they are state-owned banks. You can consider the heads of the banks gov officials too. These banks are the extensions of the government. I guess US gov probably is jealous of China counterparts that they don't have power to force banks to loan more.

Of course, they care about risks too. But the policies from gov are powerful as well. If the big boys get trouble because of this, let's see if the gov will lend a hand to them.
My point is that they are forcing the banks to lend against the best advice of what you can call prudent lending.


Fitch Ratings has been warning for some time that China's lenders are wading into dangerous waters, but its latest report is even grimmer than bears had suspected.
"With much of the world immersed in crisis, China appears to be one of the few countries where the financial system continues to function largely without a glitch, but Fitch is growing increasingly wary," it said.
"Future losses on stimulus could turn out to be larger than expected, and it is unclear what share the central and/or local governments ultimately will be willing or able to bear."
Note the phrase "able to bear". Fitch's "macro-prudential risk" indicator for China threatens to jump from category 1 (safe) to category 3 (Iceland, et al). This is a surprise to me but Michael Pettis from Beijing University says China's public debt may be as high as 50pc-70pc of GDP when "correctly counted".
The regime is so hellbent on meeting its growth target of 8pc that it has given banks an implicit guarantee for what Fitch calls a "massive lending spree".
Bank exposure to corporate debt has reached $4,200bn. It is rising at a 30pc rate, even as profits contract at a 35pc rate.
Fitch traces the 2009 bubble to the central bank's decision to cut interest on reserves to 0.72pc. Bankers responded to this "margin squeeze" by ramping up the volume of lending instead. Over half the new debt is short-term. Roll-over risk is rocketing. China's monetary stimulus since November is arguably more extreme than the post-Lehman printing of the US Federal Reserve, though less obvious to the untrained eye.


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/5675198/Chinas-banks-are-an-accident-waiting-to-happen-to-every-one-of-us.html

[Solvent]

My point is that they are forcing the banks to lend against the best advice of what you can call prudent lending.

As I said above, since the banks are part of the gov system, as long as the gov can get the economy going, the prosperity can bring in more tax, even eventually some portion of the massive lending generates loss, the gov system is still going to make profit out of it. At least, from the numbers of the first half year they released, the strategy works.

[RIPTIDE]

As I said above, since the banks are part of the gov system, as long as the gov can get the economy going, the prosperity can bring in more tax, even eventually some portion of the massive lending generates loss, the gov system is still going to make profit out of it. At least, from the numbers of the first half year they released, the strategy works.
Listen... the last time we saw massive, unbridled lending to people who couldn't pay back, helped cause the recent economic problems. Lending to high risk targets bit everyone in the arse. On a massive scale. In the years previous, countries like US reported good growth because of the easy lending. Now look.

And that is exactly what is happening in China now, albeit in the early stages. Its easy to see high productivity, big consumer spending etc.

[Solvent]

Listen... the last time we saw massive, unbridled lending to people who couldn't pay back, helped cause the recent economic problems. Lending to high risk targets bit everyone in the arse. On a massive scale. In the years previous, countries like US reported good growth because of the easy lending. Now look.

And that is exactly what is happening in China now, albeit in the early stages. Its easy to see high productivity, big consumer spending etc.

American banking system is different with China one, which is tightly controlled by gov. And the lending is different too. American banks lend to people who couldn't afford based on expectation of house price increasing. And the toxic loans were enlarged by insurance companies, such as AIG. When bubble bursts, you will get nothing back. Big part of China's lending is to infrastructures constructions, it will improve the efficiency and bring returns.

[Kilgor]

We can't trust the figures out of the US and we also can't trust the figures out of China.

[Russianlynxy]

Unlikely. If other developed countries which outsource the majority of their production to cheap labor in China have not recovered from the financial crisis, it wouldn't make sense why China itself would.

China doesn't develop anything, it either replicates for personal uses or takes production orders for other countries which is the driving force behind the Chinese economy.

but nevertheless the government says China strong111!

[magantosh]

this s4it "rebound" is full of bubbles, unfortunately we can't live on the stupid GDP number:bash:

[LRPV]

I don't buy it. How many of those 50,000 factories have re-opened? If things rebounded this fast and this vigorously, then there was never a need for a stimulus to begin with. So either they lied then, or they're lying now.

Maybe the factories that were unprofitable should have closed and the current rebound is based on the new reality. China has just shafted my state which relies heavily on iron-ore exports. The resulting 30% cuts must make some difference to the Chinese ability to reinvigorate their manufacturing capacity. However I buy into your over-all doubt. But then economic assessment is largely subjective...do you get regaled with consumer and business confidence data in the US? Here these figures are quoted weekly and either talk up or down the economy as required.

[TheMiddlePath]

I don't buy it. How many of those 50,000 factories have re-opened? If things rebounded this fast and this vigorously, then there was never a need for a stimulus to begin with. So either they lied then, or they're lying now.


China's List of Mega Projects

1, the Changxing Shipbuilding Base - to create the world's largest shipbuilding base projects with a total investment: 35,000,000,000 yuan
2, the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway - the world's longest high-speed railway projects with a total investment of the project: 220,000,000,000 yuan
3, Beijingnanzhan - Asia's largest railway station with a total investment of the project: 6.3 billion
4, Hangzhou Bay Bridge - the world's longest cross-sea bridge project with a total investment: 16,000,000,000 yuan
5, Caofeidian development - far more than the size of the Three Gorges Project with a total investment of the project: 230,000,000,000 yuan
6, Sutong Yangtze River Bridge - the world's longest cable-stayed bridge with a total investment of the project: 7,890,000,000 yuan
7, western development - large-scale systems engineering projects with a total investment: 850,000,000,000 yuan more than
8, Fusha Zhangzhou City on the occasion of the total investment in railway projects: 38,000,000,000 yuan
9, the "five vertical cross-seven" national backbone project with a total investment: 900,000,000,000 yuan
- The world's largest highway project
10, China's "eight vertical cross-eight" high-capacity fiber-optic communications network with a total investment of the project: 7,000,000,000 yuan
11, "South-North Water Diversion" - the world's largest water conservancy project with a total investment: 500,000,000,000 yuan
12, Capital International Airport T3 terminal - the world's largest single building with a total investment: 25,000,000,000 yuan
13, Zhanjiang East Sea Island: Baosteel million-ton steel base with a total investment of the project: 69,000,000,000 yuan
14, Shanghai, Lingang New City - the world's largest land reclamation projects with a total investment of the project: 150,000,000,000 yuan
15, the Shanghai Yangshan deep-water port - to build the world's largest port with a total investment of the project: 50,000,000,000 yuan
16, China's "long-term railway network planning," with a total investment of the project: 2,000,000,000,000 yuan
17, sent to East Sichuan gas project with a total investment of the project: 62,700,000,000 yuan
18, the Liaoning Nuclear Power Plant along the river red with a total investment of the project: 50,000,000,000 yuan
19, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve project with a total investment of the project: 100,000,000,000 yuan
20, the Wuhan Railway Station - the largest land-locked into the rail project with a total investment: 14,000,000,000 yuan
21, the new Kunming International Airport - China's first 4 large aviation hub airport with a total investment of the project: 23,100,000,000 yuan
22, Hainan cross-sea power grid projects with a total investment of the project: 2.2 billion
23, 1,000,000 tons of ethylene project in Tianjin with a total investment of the project: 26.8 billion
24, the Shanghai Light Source Laboratory - a major Chinese science and engineering projects with a total investment: 1.2 billion
25, post-disaster reconstruction projects in Sichuan with a total investment: 1,200,000,000,000 yuan
26, the revival of the Silk Road Project with a total investment: 43,000,000,000 U.S. dollars
27, China's second largest hydropower station - Xiluodu hydropower project with a total investment: 79,200,000,000 yuan
28, China's third-largest hydropower station - Xiangjiaba hydropower projects with a total investment: 43.4 billion
29, Wenchang in Hainan spaceport project with a total investment: 12,000,000,000 yuan
30, the Shanghai Aircraft Engineering Company with a total investment of the project: 300-500 billion
31, the spallation neutron source projects with a total investment of the project: 1.2 billion
32, the world's largest 500-meter diameter spherical radio telescope project investment: 627,000,000 yuan
33, Shanghai-Chengdu Expressway (Shanghai to Chengdu) with a total investment of the project: 170,000,000,000 yuan
34, Ningxia Ning East energy projects with a total investment of chemical bases: 100,000,000,000 yuan
35, the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge project with a total investment: 70,000,000,000 yuan
36, the state environmental protection projects with a total investment of 11th Five-Year Plan: 1,530,000,000,000 yuan
37, Jiuquan in Gansu Province - the world's largest wind power base with a total investment of the project: 120,000,000,000 yuan
38, the Wuhan-Guangzhou high-speed railway projects with a total investment: 116,800,000,000 yuan

39, the new Guangzhou Railway Station with a total investment of the project: 18,000,000,000 yuan
40, "the national civil airport layout planning" with a total investment of the project: 450,000,000,000 yuan
41, the Shanghai Hongqiao traffic hub with a total investment of the project: 36,000,000,000 yuan
42, Kazakhstan big high-speed railway projects with a total investment: 92,300,000,000 yuan
43, Tianjin offshore oil field exploration equipment bases with a total investment of the project: 22,000,000,000 yuan
44, the chemical industry base in northern Shaanxi energy projects with a total investment: 90,000,000,000 yuan
45, Sinopec Yilangyada varan oil field projects with a total investment: 2,000,000,000 U.S. dollars
46, oil in Sudan oil project with a total investment of the project: 7,000,000,000 U.S. dollars
47, Niger oil in oil projects with a total investment of the project: 5,000,000,000 U.S. dollars
48, Africa and Gabon Belinga iron ore project with a total investment: 2,700,000,000 U.S. dollars
49, China's 11th Five-Year plan for construction of the national power grid with a total investment of the project: 1,215,000,000,000 yuan
50, the 11th Five-Tibet highway traffic planning projects with a total investment: 43,000,000,000 yuan
51, China's construction of the railway modernization project in Nigeria with a total investment of the project: 8,300,000,000 U.S. dollars
52, China Libyan coastal railway construction projects with a total investment of the project: 2,600,000,000 U.S. dollars
53, the Russian Baltic Pearl project with a total investment of the project: 1,300,000,000 U.S. dollars
54, China Algeria East-West highway construction projects with a total investment of the project: 7,000,000,000 U.S. dollars
55, the Asian highway network - 23 countries join hands to build a super project with a total investment of the project: 44,000,000,000 U.S. dollars
56, Qinzhou in Guangxi million-ton oil refining project with a total investment of the project: 15.2 billion
57, the Shanghai Center - China's first high-rise projects with a total investment: 7,000,000,000 yuan
58, Sichuan Puguang Xuanhan large gas field with a total investment of the project: 70,000,000,000 yuan
59, Zhejiang coastal railway crossing large projects with a total investment: 16.2 billion
60, Panzhihua Iron and Steel Group 10,000 tons titanium production lines with a total investment of the project: 1,000,000,000 yuan
61, west to east - the world's largest power projects with a total investment of the project: more than 526,500,000,000
62, China's manned space program with a total investment of the project: 30,000,000,000 yuan
63,2010 World Expo in Shanghai with a total investment of the project: 40,000,000,000 yuan
64, the Guangzhou Nansha Longxue shipbuilding base projects with a total investment: 4.5 billion
65, Zhejiang Sanmen nuclear power project with a total investment of the project: 80,000,000,000 yuan
66, Guangdong Yangjiang nuclear power project with a total investment of the project: 8,000,000,000 U.S. dollars
67, Yantai, Shandong Haiyang Nuclear Power Project with a total investment: 60,000,000,000 yuan
68, Wuhan river subway project with a total investment of the project: 14.9 billion
69, 80,000 tons more than the forging hydraulic press with a total investment of the project: 1,517,000,000 yuan
70, China's renewable energy development plan with a total investment of the project: 2,000,000,000,000 yuan
71, the "Every Village" project with a total investment of the project: more than 1 trillion yuan
72, rural water-saving irrigation projects with a total investment: 300 billion
73, the screening of the film projects in rural areas with a total investment of the project: 1,000,000,000 yuan
74, the village of a thousand million rural market works projects with a total investment: 11.7 billion
75, the National squatter settlements renovation project with a total investment of the project: 2000 billion yuan
76,2008-2020 Shanghai Metro-year planning project with a total investment: 150,000,000,000 yuan more than

77,2008-2020 rail transit planning in Beijing with a total investment of the project: 170,000,000,000 yuan more than
78, the Dalian Petrochemical build China's largest oil refining bases with a total investment of the project: 10.7 billion
79, Chongqi Bridge project with a total investment: 7.6 billion
80, the Chengdu Shuangliu Airport expansion project with a total investment of the project: 12,700,000,000 yuan
81, the Pearl River Delta inter-city rail transit network planning project with a total investment: 1000 billion yuan
82, the Yangtze River Delta inter-city rail transit network planning project with a total investment: 150,000,000,000 yuan more than
83, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Bohai inter-city rail transit network planning project with a total investment: 1000 billion yuan
84, Kashi of Xinjiang to Hotan with a total investment of the railway project: 4.7 billion
85, the Shanghai Yangtze River Bridge Tunnel (Chongming river channel) projects with a total investment of the project: 12.6 billion
86, Jinping II hydropower station with a total investment of the project: 46,800,000,000 yuan
87, the Longtan Hydropower Project with a total investment: 24.3 billion
88, Anhui Lianghuai Yidun Ji coal base with a total investment of the project: 70,000,000,000 yuan
89, Jiangxi jin tens of billions of high-quality rice production project with a total investment of the project: 31.8 billion
90, Zhongnanshan Tunnel - China's longest highway tunnel project with a total investment: 2.5 billion
91, China 12 major hydropower bases in development planning projects with a total investment: more than 2 trillion yuan
92, the Shanghai-Hangzhou maglev project with a total investment of the project: 22,000,000,000 yuan
93, to revitalize the old northeast industrial base with a total investment of the project: 2000 billion yuan
94, the Guangzhou Opera House - steel structure comparable to the complexity of the nest with a total investment of the project: 1,000,000,000 yuan
95, the Shanghai World Financial Center with a total investment of the project: 7,000,000,000 yuan
96, Nanjing Metro Line project with a total investment: 10.9 billion
97, the basket - super markets projects with a total investment: 500 billion
98, the second phase expansion project of Qinshan nuclear power projects with a total investment: 14.5 billion
99, Tianhuangping pumped storage power station project with a total investment: 13.6 billion
100, China Central Television headquarters building with a total investment of the project: 5,000,000,000 yuan
101, the Three-North Forest Shelterbelt Project total investment: 100 billion
102, the coastal shelter forest project with a total investment of the project: 200 billion
103, Tianjin Lingang Industrial Zone with a total investment of the project: 300,000,000,000 yuan more than
104, the Tianjin Binhai New Area with a total investment of the project: more than 1 trillion yuan
105, the rocket thrust industrialization base with a total investment of the project: 4.5 billion
106, Tianxingzhou Wuhan Yangtze River Bridge project with a total investment: 11,000,000,000 yuan

The total amount of funds involved in these projects, more than 15,000,000,000,000 yuan
Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway - the world's longest high-speed railway project
Caofeidian Industrial Zone - far beyond the scale of the Three Gorges Project
Hangzhou Bay Bridge - the world's longest cross-sea bridge
Beijing Capital International Airport T3 terminal - the world's largest single construction
Shanghai Lingang New City - the world's largest land reclamation project
Shanghai's Yangshan deep-water port - to build the world's largest port
Changxing Shipbuilding Base - to create the world's largest shipbuilding base
"South-North Water Diversion" - the world's largest water conservancy project
"Five vertical cross-seven" national backbone - the world's largest highway project
Development of the western region - large-scale systems engineering
Sutong Yangtze River Bridge - the world's longest cable-stayed bridge
Beijingnanzhan - Asia's largest railway station
Eight vertical cross-eight high-capacity fiber-optic communications network
Chinese high-speed rail network - 2007-2020 annual investment of at least 2 trillion
The new Wuhan Railway Station - the largest railway hub into the inland
Silk Road revival plan
China's second largest hydropower station - Xiluodu Hydropower Station
China's third-largest hydropower station - Xiangjiaba Hydropower Station
http://www.skyscrapercity.com/images/statusicon/user_offline.gif

[Flagg]

I don't buy it. How many of those 50,000 factories have re-opened? If things rebounded this fast and this vigorously, then there was never a need for a stimulus to begin with. So either they lied then, or they're lying now.

I'd go so far as to say lying then AND now.

[BearInBunnySuit]

I'd go so far as to say lying then AND now.

At least they are consistent.

[LRPV]

I'd go so far as to say lying then AND now.

The sky has not fallen as you predicted. Some positive vibes from the market are helpful.

[Flagg]

The sky has not fallen as you predicted. Some positive vibes from the market are helpful.

No matter WHATS happens it's good to keep in mind the following:

Black Friday was not followed by Soup Lines on Monday, WWII on Wednesday, and post-war Happy Days Levittown Boom on Thursday.

Historical time compression can easily get us in trouble.

When you bounce a dead cat from the top of the Sears Tower, the first bounce is pretty much always the biggest.

Let's check back on this in 1,2,& 3 years.

[Shuimo]

No matter WHATS happens it's good to keep in mind the following:

Black Friday was not followed by Soup Lines on Monday, WWII on Wednesday, and post-war Happy Days Levittown Boom on Thursday.

Historical time compression can easily get us in trouble.

When you bounce a dead cat from the top of the Sears Tower, the first bounce is pretty much always the biggest.

Let's check back on this in 1,2,& 3 years.

Yes, nobody can see into the future!

Though I like this comparison particularly, I fail to understand why you ragard China that way?woot

If China is a dead cat already, who else is not?



When you bounce a dead cat from the top of the Sears Tower, the first bounce is pretty much always the biggest.

[Panchito12]

If China is a dead cat already, who else is not?

The cat died? Did they eat it?

[Shuimo]

lol @ responses

Welcome back Shuimo.

Thank you!:)

Hope I haven't been badly missed while I was away!rofl

[Shuimo]

This could be a case of a successful stimulus by the Chinese government. Or it could be viewed as a massive malinvestment of resources into non-productive areas like factories producing goods no one is buying with the sole aim of keeping people working to stave off social unrest.

Whatever your view it will be apparent by the end of the year which case is true.

The credit should be successful stimulus pacakges!

The gov just has too much mongey to spend on large scale projects, mainly on infrastructure construction!

I guess when the crisis is over, China wud simply emerge even stronger!

[Panchito12]

The credit should be successful stimulus pacakges!

The gov just has too much mongey to spend on large scale projects, mainly on infrastructure construction!

I guess when the crisis is over, China wud simply emerge even stronger!

Yes a strong Chicom government controlled by the Peace-loving Han!!

Long live Chahma Mao, comrade!

[Russianlynxy]

Yes a strong Chicom government controlled by the Peace-loving Han!!

Long live Chahma Mao, comrade!

Han superior race.

Communist Party Forever!
China shall emerge from the crisis even stronger to continue fight against underhumans :roll:

[Shuimo]

Hong Kong's doing well by the package as well, my mom just earned loads from the stock market yesterday.

So did the stock exchange in the mainland!rofl

I am now gardually regaining the losses incurred in the crisis times in the shares and funds I bought!

[Kilgor]

No matter WHATS happens it's good to keep in mind the following:

Black Friday was not followed by Soup Lines on Monday, WWII on Wednesday, and post-war Happy Days Levittown Boom on Thursday.

Historical time compression can easily get us in trouble.

When you bounce a dead cat from the top of the Sears Tower, the first bounce is pretty much always the biggest.

Let's check back on this in 1,2,& 3 years.

yes

The infamous wall street crash in 1929, didnt even reach its worst until 1932 and stocks remained flat for years until the war.

[TheMiddlePath]

yes

The infamous wall street crash in 1929, didnt even reach its worst until 1932 and stocks remained flat for years until the war.


Did not the US pull it way out of the depression by building infrastructure ?

[TheMiddlePath]

So did the stock exchange in the mainland!rofl

I am now gardually regaining the losses incurred in the crisis times in the shares and funds I bought!


So what is the wait time for a GM minivan in China ?

[King of the Grey]

China's List of Mega Projects

yeah, lots of infrastructure all right, but are all of them necessary/provide cumulative returns to the local economy?

like this one "73, the screening of the film projects in rural areas with a total investment of the project: 1,000,000,000 yuan' -showing films???

"75, the National squatter settlements renovation project with a total investment of the project: 2000 billion yuan" -another city-beautification technique that doesn't really solve the problem of squatters??

"-97, the basket - super markets projects with a total investment: 500 billion" -what? Chinese need MORE supermarkets?? This mode of consumption is highly suspectible to price-fixing, supply control and foreign intervention.

"100, China Central Television headquarters building with a total investment of the project: 5,000,000,000 yuan" - its still building?

these are just the ones publicised by Central Government, and though the rest seems pretty important and fit for long-term investment, who knows what the local governments will come up with to make use of their 'stimulus packages'?

And welcome back Shuimo! Took any photos of new Beijing? :)

[Holmes85]

Thank you!:)

Hope I haven't been badly missed while I was away!rofl

Welcome back good friend, its been boring here without you around.

[LRPV]

Did not the US pull it way out of the depression by building infrastructure ?

Roosevelts public spending helped but full employmentr was not reached till 1941. I'll let you work out what public policy change occured then...p-)

[LRPV]

No matter WHATS happens it's good to keep in mind the following:

Black Friday was not followed by Soup Lines on Monday, WWII on Wednesday, and post-war Happy Days Levittown Boom on Thursday.

Historical time compression can easily get us in trouble.

When you bounce a dead cat from the top of the Sears Tower, the first bounce is pretty much always the biggest.

Let's check back on this in 1,2,& 3 years.


Flagg, I respect your commentary but in talking about years before review, this is akin to the usual economic cycle. eg 5 years of rising house prices, a flat year followed by limited price increases. Certainly the case here and its normal and predictable.

This current crisis has effected commerce and put specific sectors at risk, but it is bouncing back, dare I use that word. I'm pretty comfotable with what I see. The super funds have taken a beating, car sale prices are not in decline and and people are spending again. Perhaps my specs are foggy but I just can't envisage a food-line style crisis.

[Ordie]

The CCP legitimacy is always dependent upon 7% positive growth. That is why the government will always manipulate the Shanghai exchange.

If the CCP were to float it's currency and keep its hands off of the exchange, there would be riots in the streets of China from many who have thier life savings in the stock markets.

[Shuimo]

The CCP legitimacy is always dependent upon 7% positive growth. That is why the government will always manipulate the Shanghai exchange.

If the CCP were to float it's currency and keep its hands off of the exchange, there would be riots in the streets of China from many who have thier life savings in the stock markets.

No, the legitmacy of the CPC lies in whether it could bring Chinese people stability and happiness, not that cold, icy figure games!:)

Why should COC float RMB when not floating it best serves the interst of China at this stage?