AmandlaEwetu
07-21-2009, 04:37 AM
article in the Telegraph
World's elderly to overtake number of infants
The world's population is becoming steadily greyer with the number of people aged over 65 on course to overtake the number of infants for the first time in history, a study has found
the populations of Europe and North America have been steadily ageing for decades, this trend is now spreading to the developing world, especially Asia Photo: ***** IMAGES
With every passing month, another 870,000 people turn 65 and the world's cohort of pensioners becomes larger still. Thanks to rising life expectancy, their ranks will soon be growing by almost two million a month and, by 2040, their numbers will have doubled to 1.3 billion.
This will reduce the size of the working population and impose huge new pension costs, threatening to reduce the overall growth of the world economy.
The US Census Bureau predicts pensioners will soon overtake the number of infants under the age of five because old people are now increasing faster than the very youngest human beings. The lines on the graph will cross within a decade, marking a decisive moment in the greying of the globe.
Richard Suzman, from the National Institute of Ageing in Maryland, which commissioned the new study, said: "Global ageing is changing the social and economic nature of the planet.
"The fact that, within 10 years, for the first time in human history there will be more people 65 and older than children under five in the world underlines the extent of this change."
While the populations of Europe and North America have been steadily ageing for decades, this trend is now spreading to the developing world, especially Asia. Rising life expectancy and better health care, coupled with lower fertility rates, mean that some Asian nations must prepare for large rises in their pensioner population.
In China, the number of citizens above 65 will more than treble from 106 million today to 329 million by 2040. This will hugely increase the cost of pensions and impose a major constraint on the future growth of China's economy. The stellar growth rates which have buoyed China's economy will become impossible with so many people set to leave the working population.
The proportion of South Koreans over 65 will also treble from 10 to 29 per cent, while Singapore will see the most dramatic change, with the pensioner contingent rising from nine per cent today to 33 per cent in 2040.
Once, the rich world was alone in shepherding large numbers of people to their 65th birthdays. But leaving aside Zimbabwe, where an Aids epidemic and general starvation means that most people die before the age of 40, life expectancy is rising strongly almost everywhere.
Consequently, most people of pensionable age already live in poor countries. "Well over half of the world's people aged 65 and over now live in developing nations: 62 per cent, or 313 million people," said the Census Bureau report. "By 2040, this share is projected to exceed three quarters, with the absolute number of older people in developing countries topping one billion."
People over 80 are multiplying faster than any other age group, with their ranks are set to grow by 233 per cent.
World's elderly to overtake number of infants
The world's population is becoming steadily greyer with the number of people aged over 65 on course to overtake the number of infants for the first time in history, a study has found
the populations of Europe and North America have been steadily ageing for decades, this trend is now spreading to the developing world, especially Asia Photo: ***** IMAGES
With every passing month, another 870,000 people turn 65 and the world's cohort of pensioners becomes larger still. Thanks to rising life expectancy, their ranks will soon be growing by almost two million a month and, by 2040, their numbers will have doubled to 1.3 billion.
This will reduce the size of the working population and impose huge new pension costs, threatening to reduce the overall growth of the world economy.
The US Census Bureau predicts pensioners will soon overtake the number of infants under the age of five because old people are now increasing faster than the very youngest human beings. The lines on the graph will cross within a decade, marking a decisive moment in the greying of the globe.
Richard Suzman, from the National Institute of Ageing in Maryland, which commissioned the new study, said: "Global ageing is changing the social and economic nature of the planet.
"The fact that, within 10 years, for the first time in human history there will be more people 65 and older than children under five in the world underlines the extent of this change."
While the populations of Europe and North America have been steadily ageing for decades, this trend is now spreading to the developing world, especially Asia. Rising life expectancy and better health care, coupled with lower fertility rates, mean that some Asian nations must prepare for large rises in their pensioner population.
In China, the number of citizens above 65 will more than treble from 106 million today to 329 million by 2040. This will hugely increase the cost of pensions and impose a major constraint on the future growth of China's economy. The stellar growth rates which have buoyed China's economy will become impossible with so many people set to leave the working population.
The proportion of South Koreans over 65 will also treble from 10 to 29 per cent, while Singapore will see the most dramatic change, with the pensioner contingent rising from nine per cent today to 33 per cent in 2040.
Once, the rich world was alone in shepherding large numbers of people to their 65th birthdays. But leaving aside Zimbabwe, where an Aids epidemic and general starvation means that most people die before the age of 40, life expectancy is rising strongly almost everywhere.
Consequently, most people of pensionable age already live in poor countries. "Well over half of the world's people aged 65 and over now live in developing nations: 62 per cent, or 313 million people," said the Census Bureau report. "By 2040, this share is projected to exceed three quarters, with the absolute number of older people in developing countries topping one billion."
People over 80 are multiplying faster than any other age group, with their ranks are set to grow by 233 per cent.