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Ordie
08-01-2009, 07:40 PM
Here's another potential nuclear power emgering on the borders of China.

So far we have:
Russia, Pakistan, India, North Korea and the US 7th Fleet.

China better use its clout to mitigate nuclear proliferation.


Burma’s nuclear secrets
http://images.smh.com.au/2009/07/31/659048/burma2-420x0.jpg Paper tigers? ... a protester's cut-out pictures of Burmese leaders. Photo: *******

August 1, 2009 Page 1 of 3 Single page view (http://www.smh.com.au/world/burmax2019s-nuclear-secrets-20090731-e4fv.html?page=-1)

Is Burma preparing to build a nuclear arsenal? Two years of interviews with defectors have persuaded two Australian investigators, Desmond Ball and Phil Thornton, there is more to the claim than global scepticism suggests.

A FEW years back, a paranoid military regime packed up Burma’s capital and shifted it north a few hundred kilometres. Rangoon, it seems, simply wasn’t safe enough any more. The generals’ new home was to be known as the Abode of Kings; more commonly as Naypyidaw. A city rose from the tropical plains with shiny buildings and slick roadways – a strange priority in a country suffering chronic poverty and a health system at the bottom of world rankings.
Now, a fresh question hangs over the goals of Burmese rulers. Could this junta’s priorities be so skewed as to embark upon construction of a nuclear arsenal? And might it have reached out for help to another paranoid regime, North Korea?
Desmond Ball and Phil Thornton are convinced this is a genuine threat. They have spent two years on the Burmese border, interviewing defectors who claim to know the regime’s plans.
The testimony of two Burmese men in particular has caused Ball and Thornton to confront their own deep scepticism about the claims.
Theirs might seem an unlikely collaboration – Ball, a professor of strategic studies at ANU with a deep interest in nuclear technology, and Thornton, a freelance journalist based in Thailand. But their report on the two defectors’ claims adds to mounting – albeit sketchy – evidence that Burma may be chasing the bomb.
There have been hints Burma aspires to a nuclear program. What is uncertain is the extent and intent. Rumours have swirled around refugee circles outside Burma about secret military installations, tunnels dug into the mountains to hide nuclear facilities, the establishment of a ‘‘nuclear battalion’’ in the army and work done by foreign scientists. But one defector – known as Moe Jo to protect his identity – gives the claims added weight. He warned of the regime having a handful of bombs ready by 2020.
Moe Jo escaped Burmese army service and fled to Thailand. Ball and Thornton met with him in dingy rooms and safehouses. ‘‘His hands shook and he worried about what price his family would have to pay for his actions,’’ they write. ‘‘Before rejecting his country’s nuclear plans, Moe Jo was an officer with 10 years’ exemplary army service. A former graduate of Burma’s prestigious Defence Services Academy, he specialised in computer science.’’
Moe Joe said the regime sent him to Moscow in 2003 to study engineering. He was in a second batch of trainees to be sent to Russia as part of effort to eventually train 1000 personnel to run Burma’s nuclear program.
Before leaving, he was told he would be assigned to a special nuclear battalion.
‘‘You don’t need 1000 people in the fuel cycle or to run a nuclear reactor,’’ said Moe Joe. ‘‘It’s obvious there is much more going on.’’
We knew Russia agreed in principle to sell Burma a small nuclear plant – a light water reactor – and to train about 300 Burmese scientists to run the site. The stated reason is for research purposes, specifically to produce medical isotopes.
In dispute is whether the Russian reactor would be large enough to be diverted to produce enriched uranium or plutonium for a nuclear weapon. Usually a heavy water reactor is needed to achieve this, but perhaps not with North Korean help. Ball and Thornton write: ‘‘As North Korea has shown with their [light water] reactor, it may be slow and more complex, but it is capable.’’
Moe Jo alleged a second, secret reactor of about the same size as the Russian plant had been built at complex called Naung Laing. He said that the army planned a plutonium reprocessing system there and that Russian experts were on site to show how it was done. Part of the Burmese army’s nuclear battalion was stationed in a local village to work on a weapon. He said that an operations area was buried in the nearby Setkhaya Mountains, a set-up including engineers, artillery and communications to act as command and control centre for the nuclear weapons program



More:http://www.smh.com.au/world/burmax2019s-nuclear-secrets-20090731-e4fv.html

Gleipnir
08-01-2009, 08:19 PM
Unsettling. I hope a close eye will be kept on these developments.
Very interesting article, thanks for posting this Ordie.

EStrike101
08-02-2009, 02:31 AM
well, if they have it, its a bad news for Thailand and other countries in southeast asia....

CS1.6
08-02-2009, 04:39 AM
Here's another potential nuclear power emgering on the borders of China.

So far we have:
Russia, Pakistan, India, North Korea and the US 7th Fleet.

China better use its clout to mitigate nuclear proliferation.


More:http://www.smh.com.au/world/burmax2019s-nuclear-secrets-20090731-e4fv.html

it really makes no difference 5 or 15 countries on our borders have nuclear power;

the point is who will start the nuclear war first, it will not be China;

ATV
08-02-2009, 04:44 AM
Is Myanmar going nuclear?

Link (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/07/21/AR2009072100050.html)
:roll:
The recent aborted voyage of a North Korean ship, photographs of massive tunnels and a top secret meeting have raised alarm bells that one of the world's poorest nations may be aspiring to join the nuclear club - with help from its friends in Pyongyang. No one expects military-run Myanmar, also known as Burma, to obtain an atomic bomb anytime soon, but experts have the Southeast Asian nation on their radar screen.

"There's suspicion that something is going on, and increasingly that cooperation with North Korea may have a nuclear undercurrent. We are very much looking into it," says David Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security, a Washington, D.C. think tank.

The issue is expected to be discussed, at least on the sidelines, at this week's ASEAN Regional Forum, a major security conference hosted by Thailand. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, along with representatives from North Korea and Myanmar, will attend.

Alert signals sounded recently when a North Korean freighter, the Kang Nam I, headed toward Myanmar with undisclosed cargo. Shadowed by the U.S. Navy, it reversed course and returned home earlier this month.

It is still not clear what was aboard. U.S. and South Korean officials suspected artillery and other non-nuclear arms, but one South Korean intelligence expert, citing satellite imagery, says the ship's mission appeared to be related to a Myanmar nuclear program and also carried Scud-type missiles.



The expert, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue, said North Korea is helping Myanmar set up uranium- and nuclear-related facilities, echoing similar reports that have long circulated in Myanmar's exile community and media.

Meanwhile, Japanese police arrested a North Korean and two Japanese nationals last month for allegedly trying to export a magnetic measuring device to Myanmar that could be used to develop missiles.

And a recent report from Washington-based Radio Free Asia and Myanmar exile media said senior Myanmar military officers made a top secret visit late last year to North Korea, where an agreement was concluded for greatly expanding cooperation to modernize Myanmar's military muscle, including the construction of underground installations. The military pact report has yet to be confirmed.

In June, photographs, video and reports showed as many as 800 tunnels, some of them vast, dug in Myanmar with North Korean assistance under an operation code-named "Tortoise Shells." The photos were reportedly taken between 2003 and 2006.

Thailand-based author Bertil Lintner is convinced of the authenticity of the photos, which he was the first to obtain. However, the purpose of the tunnel networks, many near the remote capital of Naypyitaw, remains a question mark.

"There is no doubt that the Burmese generals would like to have a bomb so that they could challenge the Americans and the rest of the world," says Lintner, who has written books on both Myanmar and North Korea. "But they must be decades away from acquiring anything that would even remotely resemble an atomic bomb."

David Mathieson of the New York-based Human Rights Watch, who monitors developments in Myanmar, says that while there's no firm evidence the generals are pursuing a nuclear weapons capability, "a swirl of circumstantial trends indicates something in the nuclear field is going on that definitely warrants closer scrutiny by the international community."

http://tinyurl.com/lbt7zv
http://www.zeenews.com/news552022.html
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2009\08\02\story_2-8-2009_pg20_1

Elbs
08-02-2009, 04:44 AM
it really makes no difference 5 or 15 countries on our borders have nuclear power;

the point is who will start the nuclear war first, it will not be China;

It is in China's best interest to help stop nuclear proliferation. If China's neighbors begin lobbing nukes at each other... China might be affected by fallout, refugees, etc. The Burmese junta is exactly the kind of group that should never be allowed to have nuclear weapons.

HKDan
08-02-2009, 04:53 AM
Im not going to hold my breath on this particular threat. N. Korean tunnels near the new capital? I would go with air-raid shelters instead of secret nuclear facilities.

Ordie
08-02-2009, 04:44 PM
it really makes no difference 5 or 15 countries on our borders have nuclear power;

the point is who will start the nuclear war first, it will not be China;

Perhaps not, however, could China trust the unpredicatble and secretive Burmese government?

China values predicatibility, stability and harmony.

None of these values exist in Burma.

It's time for China to become a more responsible stakeholder within the global community to stop the proliferation of nuclear weapons. The excuse of not interfereing with the domestic affairs of other nations has it limits, especially if China's national security is at stake.

sepheronx
08-02-2009, 04:46 PM
Even if Burma had the weapon grade Uranium/Plutonium, do they even have a launch system? A bus to carry the warhead? If so, then what? Taepodong 2? That thing barely flies.

But this is scary non the less.

Ordie
08-02-2009, 04:50 PM
Even if Burma had the weapon grade Uranium/Plutonium, do they even have a launch system? A bus to carry the warhead? If so, then what? Taepodong 2? That thing barely flies.

But this is scary non the less.

Burma knows how nuclear weapons had given N. Korea, and Iran leverage and legitimacy.

Another factor I forgot is the Indian reaction if Burma has nukes.

pg_ord
08-02-2009, 04:56 PM
Burma knows how nuclear weapons had given N. Korea, and Iran leverage and legitimacy.

Another factor I forgot is the Indian reaction if Burma has nukes.

As far as Indians are concerned the Junta has cracked down on NE militants taking refuge on the Burmese side of the border.... it will interesting to see what happens if Burma went nukular..... it has be CCP all along just like P'stan and NoKo.

Shadowstorm
08-02-2009, 04:57 PM
Even if Burma had the weapon grade Uranium/Plutonium, do they even have a launch system? A bus to carry the warhead? If so, then what? Taepodong 2? That thing barely flies.

But this is scary non the less.
Burma can use there A-5's, J-7's, and the MiG-29's as a nuclear platform by modifying there weapon systems.

Gleipnir
08-02-2009, 05:51 PM
I'd be very interested to see how relations will play out between Burma and India if Burma succeeds with their nuclear arsenal.
Although India originally supported Aung San Suu Kyi, it altered its position when China used that as an opportunity to build strong relations with the Junta.
In attempts to establish a stronger influence, India has invested a ton of money into various projects, including an alleged $200 million in military aid.
On the one hand they need Burma's natural resources, and in offering the Junta support they are also trying to establish stronger influence over China, who have limited what little influence India could have by using their Security Council veto to keep Burma's human rights record off the UN agenda, something that the Junta probably values more than India's economic incentives- let's not forget how they treat their civilian populace.

This last factor is something India simply can not compete with- as a Nation that supports democracy it is under constant pressure from the International Community and did for a period of time suspend its military aid to Burma and is still trying to convince the Junta to release Suu Kyi.
But then again, India has enjoyed some support from the Junta who helped in the destruction of anti-Indian insurgent camps in Manipur and Assam.

It's complicated to say the least- General Ne Win's original 'Burmese road to Socialism' quite seriously undercut the Burmese Indian population, causing a huge majority to leave- I wonder if these are accounted for in the official number of Burmese refugees that India is currently hosting?

Some even believe that Burma will soon belong to China-

"In 10 years, Burma will be China's just like Tibet is," predicts M.D. Nalapat, professor of geopolitics at Manipal University, Karnataka.

It will be interesting to see how this play's out- it seems for the time being that China is just too powerful to compete with at this stage and that India has much pressure in balancing between influence from the International community and its own self-interests.

sources:
http://www.businessweek.com/globalbiz/content/oct2007/gb20071019_332887.htm
http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,875949,00.html
http://www.csmonitor.com/2006/0426/p04s01-wosc.html
http://www.hrw.org/legacy/english/docs/2008/01/14/india17739_txt.htm
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/09/27/AR2007092702382_pf.html

3rdMillhouse
08-02-2009, 09:24 PM
And the Goddamned China is backing the burmese dictatorship, so bombing them to kindgom come is out of the question.

wagon
08-02-2009, 10:23 PM
Even if Burma had the weapon grade Uranium/Plutonium, do they even have a launch system? A bus to carry the warhead? If so, then what? Taepodong 2? That thing barely flies.

But this is scary non the less.

What is stopping them loading the whole show into a plane and just detonating the bomb on decent? You don't need a launch system then.

sepheronx
08-02-2009, 10:24 PM
What is stopping them loading the whole show into a plane and just detonating the bomb on decent? You don't need a launch system then.

That is true................

hulaku
08-03-2009, 12:52 AM
The Pakistan angle



What is of special concern to India is that Myanmar’s nuclear trail begins with two associates of Pakistani atomic renegade AQ Khan.

Myanmar popped up on the N-radar after 9/11. The US demanded the arrest of two Pakistani nuclear scientists who’d met Osama bin Laden. “Islamabad said it couldn’t find evidence but placed the scientists under house arrest,” said B Raman, a retired Research and Analysis wing officer.

"Two other associates ran off to Myanmar to escape the Americans. Both were part of Pakistan’s military nuclear programme.”

“I don't think they defected. They were encouraged to go by Pakistan,” said G Parthasarathy, an Indian diplomat who served in both Islamabad and Yangon.

The scientists — Suleiman Assad and Mohd Mukhtar — are believed to have arrived in Yangon in November 2001 and were reportedly secreted away by the junta in Sagaing, a Mandalay suburb. “Nothing has been heard about them since,” said Raman.

A few years later, the Myanmar dissidents said they heard the junta had launched a nuclear-related ‘Ayelar Project’, headed by two Pakistanis.

http://www.hindustantimes.com/StoryPage/StoryPage.aspx?sectionName=NLetter&id=20681151-88ab-4893-95d2-87c0135cf6b1&Headline=Myanmar+close+to+nuclear+bomb