China's Economy

[Ordie]

China's economy: Pay attention to 7 little words (http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/commerce/090306/chinas-economy-pay-attention-7-little-words)

In a culture of nuance, China's leaders opt for the direct approach.


(http://www.globalpost.com/bio/thomas-mucha)
By Thomas Mucha (http://www.globalpost.com/bio/thomas-mucha) Published: March 6, 2009 16:55 ET
Updated: September 13, 2009 12:38 ET

-A (javascript:;) +A (javascript:;)
BOSTON — “We are facing unprecedented difficulties and challenges.”
Those seven words – uttered March 5 by Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao – represent the most important economic news of the week. And that’s saying a lot in a week where unemployment in the United States jumped to a 25-year high, stocks on Wall Street fell to a 12-year low, the beleaguered European Central Bank lowered interest rates to a record low, and industrial production dropped 17.2 percent in Brazil, the biggest monthly drop ever.
Chinese leaders are rarely, if ever, so blunt about their economic worries.
But play close attention to what’s happening in Beijing and across China, where 20 million migrant workers are already out of work, exports are falling fast due to slumping global demand, and where annual GDP needs to hit 8 percent for the economy to absorb a growing workforce, a dubious goal in 2009 to say the least.
As we’ve been arguing here at GlobalPost (http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/commerce/090206/peasant-revolution-20), conditions are increasingly ripe for social unrest. China’s rapid economic growth – GDP has surged tenfold since Deng Xiaoping’s economic reforms of 1978 – has created millions of richer Chinese who are now suddenly losing what they’ve worked so hard to achieve.
And that could be a recipe for trouble, especially since China has not done a good job of building the kinds of safety nets – unemployment insurance, health care, housing and other social welfare programs – that help most developed countries cushion the effects of an economic downturn.


Wen's public pessimism is especially nerve-wracking because 2009 isn’t only the year of the Ox in China. It’s also the year of the anniversary, and numbers play an important role in Chinese culture:


Oct. 1 is the 60th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic.
June 4 is the 20th anniversary of the Tiananmen Square protests.
July 10 is the 10th anniversary of the banning of Falun Gong, the spiritual movement that Beijing sees as a threat to its authority.
March 17 is the 50th anniversary of the flight into exile of the Dali Lama, the Tibetan spiritual leader.

This strange confluence of dates no doubt has Beijing worried about social stability. So when China’s leadership makes a bold statement like this, pay attention.
It means that the government knows that this economic crisis is creating, perhaps, the most severe test of its leadership since 1949. And since China is now so closely integrated with the global economy, that leadership also knows that it can no longer pretend that everything is fine.
So Wen — speaking at the opening session of the National People’s Congress in Beijing, but also to the world — tried to calm some of these fears.
He set the country’s growth target for 2009 at 8 percent and said Beijing would spend more on social safety nets like healthcare and other programs (though he did not, as was hoped, announce new stimulus measures beyond last November’s $586 billion package).
Will it work? Of course nobody yet knows, though one thing is clear: these are, indeed, interesting times for China and for the rest of the world.
Which leads us to another Chinese phrase with an uneasy connection to Wen’s utterance this week: “May you live in interesting times.”
Unfortunately for everyone involved, this six-word phrase is often meant as a cursehttp://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/commerce/090306/chinas-economy-pay-attention-7-little-words

[Loke2]

http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2009/09/11/business-as-china-economy_6875425.html




SHANGHAI -- China's economic recovery gained momentum in August, adding to confidence the government's lavish stimulus spending is working, yet failing to silence all doubts the rebound is sustainable.
The upbeat data on factory output, investment and retail sales released Friday boosted regional markets and was no doubt welcome news to China's Communist leaders as Beijing prepares to celebrate 60 years of Communist rule. The Shanghai Composite Index surged 2.2 percent to 2,989.79 and markets elsewhere in Asia were mostly higher.

But some economists cautioned the figures might contain an element of window-dressing, and that the good news should not be construed as proof the recovery in the world's third-largest economy is sustainable.
China was the first major country to show signs of emerging from the worst global slump since the 1930s. That has raised hopes it could help pull the rest of the world out of recession as China buys more raw materials, industrial components and consumer goods from struggling economies in the United States, Europe and elsewhere.
"The continuous moderate growth of investment and retail sales implies success in expanding domestic demand, but I think it's not enough for coming months," said Feng Yuming, an analyst at Oriental Securities in Shanghai.
"We need to think about how to further boost exports in the next half-year. This is crucial to ensure China's recovery is steady and sustainable," Feng said.


Manufacturing and exports, mainstays of China's growth, have been battered by the downturn in global trade, but Beijing's 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) stimulus program has helped to insulate the economy by fueling industrial demand through heavy spending on building new highways and other public works.
Economic growth accelerated to 7.9 percent over a year earlier in the April-June quarter, up from 6.1 percent the previous quarter, though still far short of the 10 percent-plus growth rates of recent years.
"We still have much hard work to do to attain China's goal of 8 percent growth for this year. Many challenges lie ahead," spokesman Li Xiaochao told reporters in Beijing at the statistics bureau's monthly briefing on the economy.
August's industrial production rose 12.3 percent from a year earlier, accelerating from July's 10.8 percent increase. All industries saw positive growth, led by a 90 percent rise in vehicle production, to 1.17 million.
Retail sales grew 15.4 percent, slightly faster than in July but nearly 8 percentage points below the rate seen in August of last year, when the economy had yet to feel the brunt of the global slowdown.
China's bank lending remained moderate in August, although at 410.4 billion yuan ($60.1 billion) it was higher than forecast after July's sudden plunge from record levels in the first half of the year. Bank credit traditionally tapers off late in the year.
Beijing's stimulus spending helped boost investment in factory equipment and construction. Such investment rose 33 percent in January-August from a year earlier, to 11.298 trillion yuan ($1.65 trillion). Most of that spending was at the local level, with investment in coal mining surging about a third and investment in railways more than doubling.
While China's domestic economy appears to be on the mend by most measures, feeble demand has hamstrung foreign trade.
Exports continued to languish, falling 23 percent from a year earlier in August to $103.7 billion. China's overall trade surplus in August plunged 45 percent, to $15.7 billion.
Inflation remains firmly under control despite surges in stocks and property prices, with consumer prices falling 1.2 percent in August from a year earlier.
That gives China's planners plenty of leeway to keep spending to pump up growth. Premier Wen Jiabao pledged Thursday to keep doing so in comments to a conference of business leaders, academics and government officials in the northern city of Dalian.


China's economy seems to be doing pretty well -- and having 8% growth in a situation where other parts of the world is not growing or even contracting seems pretty decent to me. Also note that whereas the trade surplus is much lower than August last year, it is still a surplus, merely 1 year after the crisis started to hit.

So when will the Chinese economy replace the US economy as the Worlds largest? My guess is this will happen within 20 year... but I am no economist...

Militarly the US will probably have the lead a bit longer -- another 30 years?

L

[Ordie]

I beg to differ.

I was in China earlier this year. On the surface China looks promising. But if you travel into the interior, it's the 19th century.

Much of the new skyscrapers in Beijing were vacant.

Like every Communist state, they will always fudge the numbers.

[Solvent]

I beg to differ.

I was in China earlier this year. On the surface China looks promising. But if you travel into the interior, it's the 19th century.

Much of the new skyscrapers in Beijing were vacant.

Like every Communist state, they will always fudge the numbers.

Since you made same mistake before, I like to remind you that you do understand 19 century is from 1800 - 1899. People at that time didn't have TV, radio, phone, electricity and running water, etc.

We do have place where people still live in extreme poverty. But your short trip to China last year seems to me a little bit too much.

You covered big cities, small cities and remote countrysides. You have traveled from north to south, from east to west. You've learned building vacant situation of Beijing, and talked with old folks who experienced history events in Yunnan. You've taken hundreds of pictures which show the true face of China.

Not only that, you already have deep understanding on China's politics, environment, economy, culture and even history hiding behind the old building. I only can say what a brilliant trip.

[Loke2]

I beg to differ.

I was in China earlier this year. On the surface China looks promising. But if you travel into the interior, it's the 19th century.

Much of the new skyscrapers in Beijing were vacant.

Like every Communist state, they will always fudge the numbers.

I have never been to "mainland China"; I was visiting HK during the recession some years back, and was surprised to see all the empty shopping malls. OTOH, HK did seem to get up to speed suprisingly quickly again. But than again, people were taken by surprise by the economic collapse of the USSR, few expected it to happen so fast and on such a massive scale.

Perhaps one relevant question would be how much the Chinese economy has changed into a capitalist economy and how much it is still a sentralized plan ecomony. If it is capitalist then will will respond much faster to crises, both on the way down but also on the way up.

Any thoughts on the enclosed estimates? 500 million middle class Chinese by 2026:

http://www.monitor.com/Portals/0/MonitorContent/documents/Monitor_Understanding_Chinas_Middle_Class_CBR.pdf

[Ordie]

One of the biggest mistakes most people including MBA types is to treat China as a singular special case. The fact of the matter there are many China's within and is a fragile developing nation.

My travels in China culminates over a 20 year span. Each time focusing on a specific region. I encourage everyone to visit China at least once in a lifetime. It's an eye opener.

[Loke2]

One of the biggest mistakes most people including MBA types is to treat China as a singular special case. The fact of the matter there are many China's within and is a fragile developing nation.

Do you think China can go the way of the USSR?

[telecup]

One of the biggest mistakes most people including MBA types is to treat China as a singular special case. The fact of the matter there are many China's within and is a fragile developing nation.

My travels in China culminates over a 20 year span. Each time focusing on a specific region. I encourage everyone to visit China at least once in a lifetime. It's an eye opener.


I am sure none of them wants to become independent, which is different from USSR. :)

[Hongjian]

Hmmm. Here in Kunming, the capital of Yunnan-province, I cannot register any signs of crisis. Sure, the university graduates are dying from increased job-competition and stuff, but their imagination of getting well-paid jobs in big companies is antiquated anyway.

Well, the people here arent showing any pessimism at all. The Infaltion is very low (in fact, it's actually a deflation), the goods are getting cheaper and cheaper and the purchasing power of the consumer is growing stronger at the same time.
Of course, alot of this is heavily state-sanctioned, but the people arent feeling much of the crisis. Life goes on and the Chinese are spending money like it's water.


And for all, you can completely disregard the migrant workers. Noone even tried to feel any sympathy for them here, as China is a very meritocratic society: They didnt have much education and useful abilities at the beginning, so they deserve everything they get. If the export-economy booms, then they will have a short and insecure time of profit, and in times of crisis, they will go down. No tears shed for them. Every soldier for himself.

And if they go batsh*t, then the sate will respond with bayonets. Millions of them. And the 'support' of a 400 million apathic middle class.

[Ordie]

Do you think China can go the way of the USSR?

Nope.

Chinese Communist are more top-down in policy but very loose economically. The Chinese Communists never abandoned its historical legitimacy to govern China as a single unit. They viewed themselves as part of a long line of Dynasties with the Mandate of Heaven.

When the Russian Communists executed the Tzar, they did everything to erase its Imperial borders and created 'Soviet republics' from within. To me it seems that the USSR was designed to split from the very begining.

[Ordie]

Hmmm. Here in Kunming, the capital of Yunnan-province, I cannot register any signs of crisis. Sure, the university graduates are dying from increased job-competition and stuff, but their imagination of getting well-paid jobs in big companies is antiquated anyway.

Well, the people here arent showing any pessimism at all. The Infaltion is very low (in fact, it's actually a deflation), the goods are getting cheaper and cheaper and the purchasing power of the consumer is growing stronger at the same time.
Of course, alot of this is heavily state-sanctioned, but the people arent feeling much of the crisis. Life goes on and the Chinese are spending money like it's water.

Kunming (Yunan Provence) is as far away from authoritarian Beijing, with the less stressful attitudes of the local minority groups. A good mix of clean air and year long spring weather helps people stay calm......

Along with a bowl of "Over the Bridge Noodles".

Many of the old timers in Kunmming have nothing but good things to say about America and Americans.

[Hongjian]

Kunming (Yunan Provence) is as far away from authoritarian Beijing, with the less stressful attitudes of the local minority groups. A good mix of clean air and year long spring weather helps people stay calm......

Along with a bowl of "Over the Bridge Noodles".

Many of the old timers in Kunmming have nothing but good things to say about America and Americans.


Yeah, Guo-Qiao Mi-Xian FTW. I eat them everyday.

And the US is not really hated in China in general. The young people are all crazy over the US. But one thing one should not forget: They idolize the US only for being a wealthy superpower. Not because they love or respect your for being a free democracy.

And as for Kunming, well, considering the famous Mercenaries of the Flying Tigers where stationed at the old military airport in the War of Resistance against Japan, it's not very uncomon for Kunming people to deeply respect the Americans for their support.


Kunming wasnt as awesome as today. The last Mayor was damn corrupt and drove the Province even behind Tibet in terms of GDP.
Which is quite hard if you ask me, considering the good soil, mild climate and rich minerals (ferreous red-coloured earth - best soil for wine) which could even make a randomly plugged broomstick to yield fruits.

But now, with Mayor Qiu He in power (we call him Qiu Laoshi - teacher Qiu), who got his position because of the extensive patronage of Hu Jintao, things are finally moving again.

So China's problem is not because of too much authoritarian centralism. It's because of TOO LESS of said authoritarian centralsim.
Corruption, pollution and social injustice is rampant, because the central government is too weak to control every provincial functionary who is potentially corrupted.
If you stay in China a bit longer and see how much malicious 'freedom' the single provincial functionaries are taking out for themselves, you wont believe the propaganda, that the dark age of warlords is over...

Solution: Strenghtening the Party-Internal Inquisition, taking the relatives of every functionary hostage and threaten their execution when disobedience or corruption is uncovered by a extensive network of fanatically loyal commissars and spies.
They should also invite some old east-german Stasi-members to China to teach them some proven techniques of German quality about observation and espionage. The old MSS Officers I know from my time in Germany, would be very glad for this job offer at their advanced age.

Since China isn't a Democracy with free press to control the functionaries, we should solve everything like our forefahters did. Through Fear and Terror.

[Shuimo]

I beg to differ.

I was in China earlier this year. On the surface China looks promising. But if you travel into the interior, it's the 19th century.

Much of the new skyscrapers in Beijing were vacant.

Like every Communist state, they will always fudge the numbers.

How do you know that much of the new skyscrapers in Beijing were vacant?

[Shuimo]

Since you made same mistake before, I like to remind you that you do understand 19 century is from 1800 - 1899. People at that time didn't have TV, radio, phone, electricity and running water, etc.

We do have place where people still live in extreme poverty. But your short trip to China last year seems to me a little bit too much.

You covered big cities, small cities and remote countrysides. You have traveled from north to south, from east to west. You've learned building vacant situation of Beijing, and talked with old folks who experienced history events in Yunnan. You've taken hundreds of pictures which show the true face of China.

Not only that, you already have deep understanding on China's politics, environment, economy, culture and even history hiding behind the old building. I only can say what a brilliant trip.

The only prob with him is his apparent inability to understand the essence of Chinese culture and wisdom from his downright self-centered perspective!

[Ordie]

How do you know that much of the new skyscrapers in Beijing were vacant?

I have friends in high places.

[Ordie]

Since China isn't a Democracy with free press to control the functionaries, we should solve everything like our forefahters did. Through Fear and Terror.

For me Kunmming is a very appealing city. It has the perfect weather and clean air. But you're not far away from Bangkok, Singapore, Hanoi, Saigon or Hong Kong.

Good governence goes a long way.

Lately US Universities including Stanford are hosting Public Administration classes for Chinese Government Employees every 3-4 months. These are groups of 50 people from all parts of China learning policymaking and implementation. I've seen several attending televised city council meetings in the area taking notes.

It's funny to see shocked faces among them when a member of the public berating the city at a public hearing. It's common here in the states, probably uncommon in China.

[Shuimo]

One of the biggest mistakes most people including MBA types is to treat China as a singular special case. The fact of the matter there are many China's within and is a fragile developing nation.

My travels in China culminates over a 20 year span. Each time focusing on a specific region. I encourage everyone to visit China at least once in a lifetime. It's an eye opener.

The Chinese themsleves know this most sober-mindedly!From the top political leadership Hu Jintao to ordinary folks like Shuimo!:)

It is chiefly the gullible foreigners, westerners in particular, that make such mistakes in conceiving China as a changelessly monolithic country, for whatever reasons out there! (Biased and distored media covarage I identify as the chief cause)

China just has many many faces and versions, and you can even say China is just a mini-version and epitome of present-day WORLD!

It represents a charming medley and mingling of different types of soceities at different developemntal stages!

China has super-glitzy and glamorous cities like Beijing and Shanghai bearing comparison with cities of developed countries,
yet it also has vast regions rife with ghettos resembling what is typically third-world African countries' sight!

You encounter all sort of typical or hottest issues and probs plaguing the world today in present-day China!
Poverty, corruption, pollution, urbanization and immigration, rich-poor disparity, ethnic tensions, separatism, consumerism, AIDS.......

[Shuimo]

For me Kunmming is a very appealing city. It has the perfect weather and clean air. But you're not far away from Bangkok, Singapore, Hanoi, Saigon or Hong Kong.

Good governence goes a long way.

Lately US Universities including Stanford are hosting Public Administration classes for Chinese Government Employees every 3-4 months. These are groups of 50 people from all parts of China learning policymaking and implementation. I've seen several attending televised city council meetings in the area taking notes.

It's funny to see shocked faces among them when a member of the public berating the city at a public hearing. It's common here in the states, probably uncommon in China.

That is remotely useful, if not tokenism on the part of CPC seeking modification in its governance!p-)

Do you know how much taxpayers' money has been squandered that way in the charming name of "study tours" abroad by CPC officials?

Unless we see a reall change in the QUALITY of Chinese political life, such showy work of quantity kind won't and can't go far in lifting the Chinese to live a better life they really deserve!:oops:

[Ordie]

That is remotely useful, if not tokenism on the part of CPC seeking modification in its governance!p-)

Do you know how much taxpayers' money has been squandered that way in the charming name of "study tours" abroad by CPC officials?

Unless we see a reall change in the QUALITY of Chinese political life, such showy work of quantity kind won't and can't go far in lifting the Chinese to live a better life they really deserve!:oops:

I don't know the outcome, but at least they have been exposed to an alternative system and society.

[Shuimo]

And for all, you can completely disregard the migrant workers. Noone even tried to feel any sympathy for them here, as China is a very meritocratic society: They didnt have much education and useful abilities at the beginning, so they deserve everything they get. If the export-economy booms, then they will have a short and insecure time of profit, and in times of crisis, they will go down. No tears shed for them. Every soldier for himself.

And if they go batsh*t, then the sate will respond with bayonets. Millions of them. And the 'support' of a 400 million apathic middle class.

This is the worst stinking part of the Chinese culture I find it impossible for me to stomach!

The smart-alecky ones in the ruling position insist on treating its peole like unthinking dirts and annimals that have to be kept within a cage!

[Solvent]

That is remotely useful, if not tokenism on the part of CPC seeking modification in its governance!p-)

Do you know how much taxpayers' money has been squandered that way in the charming name of "study tours" abroad by CPC officials?

Unless we see a reall change in the QUALITY of Chinese political life, such showy work of quantity kind won't and can't go far in lifting the Chinese to live a better life they really deserve!:oops:

Yea, for me, those classes are more like personal vacations. What they need most is to change their mindset and attitude, not the skill of governance.

[Shuimo]

Yeah, Guo-Qiao Mi-Xian FTW. I eat them everyday.

And the US is not really hated in China in general. The young people are all crazy over the US. But one thing one should not forget: They idolize the US only for being a wealthy superpower. Not because they love or respect your for being a free democracy.

And as for Kunming, well, considering the famous Mercenaries of the Flying Tigers where stationed at the old military airport in the War of Resistance against Japan, it's not very uncomon for Kunming people to deeply respect the Americans for their support.


Kunming wasnt as awesome as today. The last Mayor was damn corrupt and drove the Province even behind Tibet in terms of GDP.
Which is quite hard if you ask me, considering the good soil, mild climate and rich minerals (ferreous red-coloured earth - best soil for wine) which could even make a randomly plugged broomstick to yield fruits.

But now, with Mayor Qiu He in power (we call him Qiu Laoshi - teacher Qiu), who got his position because of the extensive patronage of Hu Jintao, things are finally moving again.

So China's problem is not because of too much authoritarian centralism. It's because of TOO LESS of said authoritarian centralsim.
Corruption, pollution and social injustice is rampant, because the central government is too weak to control every provincial functionary who is potentially corrupted.
If you stay in China a bit longer and see how much malicious 'freedom' the single provincial functionaries are taking out for themselves, you wont believe the propaganda, that the dark age of warlords is over...

Solution: Strenghtening the Party-Internal Inquisition, taking the relatives of every functionary hostage and threaten their execution when disobedience or corruption is uncovered by a extensive network of fanatically loyal commissars and spies.
They should also invite some old east-german Stasi-members to China to teach them some proven techniques of German quality about observation and espionage. The old MSS Officers I know from my time in Germany, would be very glad for this job offer at their advanced age.

Since China isn't a Democracy with free press to control the functionaries, we should solve everything like our forefahters did. Through Fear and Terror.

I know you are joking!

But you do have to admit China needs to develop democracy, not necessarily the version of the US, but surely a brand that captures the true essence of democracy or republic or whatever it is or you call it, that is, the government and the officials have to be brought to be in line with the principle of accountability and transparency!

The current system in the dark little CPC box simply cannot be sustained in perpetuality!

[Shuimo]

I don't know the outcome, but at least they have been exposed to an alternative system and society.

I am concerned that wud just do the opposite of what you wished:
Further tighten their resolve to keep, improve and white-wash the old system that they find best suits their needs and tastes, due to exposure to an alternative system that even fools know apparently threatens single-handed grip on power as a most covetous valuable resource!:)

[Shuimo]

Nope.

Chinese Communist are more top-down in policy but very loose economically. The Chinese Communists never abandoned its historical legitimacy to govern China as a single unit. They viewed themselves as part of a long line of Dynasties with the Mandate of Heaven.

When the Russian Communists executed the Tzar, they did everything to erase its Imperial borders and created 'Soviet republics' from within. To me it seems that the USSR was designed to split from the very begining.

That is a shrewd observation!
The bottom line for the ruling CPC is this:
Anything is ALLOWED as long as my grip on power is safe and sound!
Does that make any substantial difference to any previous dozen-numbered feudal dynasty in Chinese history where the power was in the monopolyzing hands of one emperor alone, whereas in present-day China the power falls into the hands of a clique of a tiny few people?

PS: The USSR comment is charming!:)

[Ordie]

That is a shrewd observation!
The bottom line for the ruling CPC is this:
Anything is ALLOWED as long as my grip on power is safe and sound!
Does that make any substantial difference to any previous dozen-numbered feudal dynasty in Chinese history where the power was in the monopolyzing hands of one emperor alone, whereas in present-day China the power falls into the hands of a clique of a tiny few people?

PS: The USSR comment is charming!:)

The CCP has an entire department dedicated to the study and analysis of failed Communist and Authoritarian systems of governments. Including the 'color revolutions'.

[Zook]

I beg to differ.

I was in China earlier this year. On the surface China looks promising. But if you travel into the interior, it's the 19th century.

Much of the new skyscrapers in Beijing were vacant.

Like every Communist state, they will always fudge the numbers.

Please, trying to deny China's economic progress and growing power is ridiculous, as is trying to intrinsically link said economic performance with vacancies of new skyscraper blocks. If you need evidence you only have to see how much their need of resources has grown in the past 5 years alone, for example in Australia which is one of the worlds largest exporters of coal and ore has had Chinese trade nearly double to become its largest trading partner leapjumping the United States and Japan and hundreds of billions of dollars of energy contracts signed not only to give them these materials but to help build reactors and plants in which they will be used.

In my eyes the most 'fair' way to gauge the growth is through their energy demands, where China is breaking ground on new reactors every week. They are not doing a potemkin village.

I have read in journals claims of 'number fudging' in the past but those studies have been inconclusive at best.

[Ordie]

In my eyes the most 'fair' way to gauge the growth is through their energy demands, where China is breaking ground on new reactors every week. They are not doing a potemkin village.

It depends on which way the powerlines are directed. And who pays the real price. And its not the urban rich folks.

I was in Shanxi provence. Coal mines and powerplants are everywhere both legal and illegal. While Beijing shut coal fed power plants to improve its clean air standards for the Olympics, Shanxi paid the price of rising pollution rates with increased energy capacity with powerlines to Beijing.

I was in Datong in Shanxi for 3 days and I had resperatory problems. I was considered lucky since I had to option to leave. But many of the locals were stuck trying to scrape a living.

Meanwhile back in Beijing, everyone was enjoying the nightlife thanks to powerlines from Shanxi.

[Ordie]

I have read in journals claims of 'number fudging' in the past but those studies have been inconclusive at best.

One only needs to look at the Shanghai Stock exchange. The government deliberately pumps cash into it as a means to gain the legitimacy of the Chinese people.

Why? because the Chinese had invested thier live savings into the markets, any dip or downturn will result in massive chaos.

[Solvent]

It depends on which way the powerlines are directed. And who pays the real price. And its not the urban rich folks.

I was in Shanxi provence. Coal mines and powerplants are everywhere both legal and illegal. While Beijing shut coal fed power plants to improve its clean air standards for the Olympics, Shanxi paid the price of rising pollution rates with increased energy capacity with powerlines to Beijing.

I was in Datong in Shanxi for 3 days and I had resperatory problems. I was considered lucky since I had to option to leave. But many of the locals were stuck trying to scrape a living.

Meanwhile back in Beijing, everyone was enjoying the nightlife thanks to powerlines from Shanxi.

The problem for Shanxi is lack of regulation and environment protection.

Saying rural folks paying the real price is not true, because they simply don't have enough capacity to support the hunger for energy of the whole nation.

[Zook]

It depends on which way the powerlines are directed. And who pays the real price. And its not the urban rich folks.

I was in Shanxi provence. Coal mines and powerplants are everywhere both legal and illegal. While Beijing shut coal fed power plants to improve its clean air standards for the Olympics, Shanxi paid the price of rising pollution rates with increased energy capacity with powerlines to Beijing.

I was in Datong in Shanxi for 3 days and I had resperatory problems. I was considered lucky since I had to option to leave. But many of the locals were stuck trying to scrape a living.

Meanwhile back in Beijing, everyone was enjoying the nightlife thanks to powerlines from Shanxi.

This is not inherently a Chinese problem as most countries keep their coal plants away from the major cities as a means of reducing air pollution and health problems by moving the plants to places with lower population densities, this has been the major practice for decades worldwide. Where I live all the coastal cities are supplied by the coal fired power plants which are hundreds of kilometres from Sydney, funnily enough supplied by the same coal mines which export coal to China and Shaanxi.

Most of the fruits of China's development has gone to the Coast and the Central Committee is more than aware of the growing divide. One only has to read the speeches President Hu and Premier Wen have made about the importance of developing the interior and close the disparity, which they have made the centerpiece of the Party's development goals since the 16th Party Congress and further adopted with the Scientific Development Policy at the 17th Party Congress.

China is a developing country, it has a long journey to go, but it isn't what some right-wing academics have theorized as a 'paper tiger'.

Regardless of this China still has had significant economic development and is now the worlds leading industrial power.


One only needs to look at the Shanghai Stock exchange. The government deliberately pumps cash into it as a means to gain the legitimacy of the Chinese people.

Why? because the Chinese had invested thier live savings into the markets, any dip or downturn will result in massive chaos.

Flat out lying about GDP figures and projections is completely different than providing stability to the stock market.

Emerging stock markets are subject to extreme volatility, much more so than in the West. In a hybrid command and market economy which is China today it is prudent to invest funds to ensure the stability of these markets and to build confidence.

One mustn't also forget that it was not long ago that trillions of dollars were being pumped into propping up Wall Street and Canary Wharf by reserve banks around the world, so once again this is not inherently a Chinese issue.

[TheMiddlePath]

where 20 million migrant workers are already out of work, exports are falling fast due to slumping global demand, and where annual GDP needs to hit 8 percent for the economy to absorb a growing workforce, a dubious goal in 2009 to say the least.
As we’ve been arguing here at GlobalPost, conditions are increasingly ripe for social unrest.

Not another "China is going to collapse" thread.

They have been screaming "China is going to collapse since 1989".

[Ordie]

Emerging stock markets are subject to extreme volatility, much more so than in the West. In a hybrid command and market economy which is China today it is prudent to invest funds to ensure the stability of these markets and to build confidence.

That is called speculation and it breeds complacency and increases expectations.

Not confidence.

[ren0312]

I see a lot of parallels the rise of Germany in the late 18th century and the rise of China today, the problem with the democratic peace theory as it applies to World War 1 is that yes Germany in 1914 was less democratic than France or England, but really not by much, and the cause of the war has as much to do France's desire to get back Alsace Lorraine and the way Germany and Prussia was portrayed in the English press(which parallels somewhat the way China is portrayed in the Western media), as Wilhelm's foreign policy, which is really hardly more aggresive, than say, France's or Russia's.

[Jaegermeister + Red Bull]

It depends on which way the powerlines are directed. And who pays the real price. And its not the urban rich folks.

I was in Shanxi provence. Coal mines and powerplants are everywhere both legal and illegal. While Beijing shut coal fed power plants to improve its clean air standards for the Olympics, Shanxi paid the price of rising pollution rates with increased energy capacity with powerlines to Beijing.

I was in Datong in Shanxi for 3 days and I had resperatory problems. I was considered lucky since I had to option to leave. But many of the locals were stuck trying to scrape a living.

Meanwhile back in Beijing, everyone was enjoying the nightlife thanks to powerlines from Shanxi.

I am pretty sure the brown coal power plant in the Latrobe valley of Victoria all point their powerlines towards the city of Melbourne...guess the Gippsland locals pays the price.

[Jaegermeister + Red Bull]

One of the biggest mistakes most people including MBA types is to treat China as a singular special case. The fact of the matter there are many China's within and is a fragile developing nation.

My travels in China culminates over a 20 year span. Each time focusing on a specific region. I encourage everyone to visit China at least once in a lifetime. It's an eye opener.

Agree with your first observation, there are many "China's" within and its a developing nation...

Confused about your second statement, are you saying you managed to do in 4 weeks 20 yrs of observation? Or did you mean you covered China in 4 weeks going to different regions that represented a 20 year time span in terms of development?

Disagree with your vacant building and 19th century theories...

Vacant building theory is as old as "China Collapse" theory since 4/6/1989...while the residential and commercial building industry might be important, they are not the only drivers. China is still a country with inadequate infrastructure, in all areas of transportation, communications, power, environmental & water etc...I havent mentioned capital investment by foreign industries and SOEs...and the much maligned export manufacturing sector, and a growing consumer market and nascent service sector...it is a worry that you focus so much on "vacant buildings" that it is one of your biggest mistakes: it is not a singular special case.

While not disagreeing with the fact of certain areas of China still in the "19th" century, but how that will in itself cause instability and collapse is a stretch too far. "19th" century as correctly pointed out by others refers to the years 1800 to 1899, where certain countries experienced growth/industrialisation/peace while others experienced famine/decay/strife. China may have areas can be termed "19th century", but last I checked none were in famine/decay/strife for the last 30 yrs.

And 19th century simply means great potential for "future" sustained development and growth, at least thats the glass half full view.

[Ordie]

For the past 20 years, I've visited different parts of China on several occasions on an average of 2-3 weeks at a time.

I'm not saying China is collapsing, but that China is very fragile. To the point that the CCP are more afriad of the Chinese than all the external threats combined. (Including the Dalai Lama)

As for the developmental issues. There are big gaps between the urban rich and the rural poor. If you ever travel in these rural places, it looks like a wasteland of failed policies. You still see collapsing backyard foundaries from the Great Leap Forward, storehouses, and communal kitchens of former collective farms, outdoor stages from the Cultural Revolution period and interstate highways with no exits by-passing small towns in the current period.

The area I visited has been going through a 3 year drought. The situation is very dire to the point that farmers are digging into the ravines for coal to sell.

[Shuimo]

I always enjoy reading yr comments on Chinese state of affairs!


For the past 20 years, I've visited different parts of China on several occasions on an average of 2-3 weeks at a time.
This is highly commendable for an Ameircan!:)


I'm not saying China is collapsing, but that China is very fragile. To the point that the CCP are more afriad of the Chinese than all the external threats combined. (Including the Dalai Lama)
Any educated person, Chinese or non-Chinese, wud have to agree on this!The legitmacy of the CPC is surely increasingly challenged these days!
6/4 1989 tragedy is an absolute turning point for such political awareness among the educated Chinese folks!
I bet it that was the first time that the CPC felt its grip on power on PRC wud be no more taken unquestionable by the awakened Chinese people!

With an acute awareness of its questioned legitmacy triggered by Tiananmen Massacre, the CPC has since then showed unprecidented effort and care to improve and perfect its one-party statecraft with all means at its disposal!:oops:



As for the developmental issues. There are big gaps between the urban rich and the rural poor. If you ever travel in these rural places, it looks like a wasteland of failed policies. You still see collapsing backyard foundaries from the Great Leap Forward, storehouses, and communal kitchens of former collective farms, outdoor stages from the Cultural Revolution period and interstate highways with no exits by-passing small towns in the current period.

Outstanding observation!
I have seen few such historical survivals from tragical episodes in PRC history! But I believe your acount 100%!
Sometimes my parents would tell me stories of the unimaginable things in Mao's China!
Personally, both my grandpas died from CPC's faied policies! For which I wud never forgive Mao and his evil CPC, from whom no word of apology has ever been heard about the crimes and sins it commited towards the Chinese people!




The area I visited has been going through a 3 year drought. The situation is very dire to the point that farmers are digging into the ravines for coal to sell.

It is Shanxi again! All too familiar!

[Shuimo]

It depends on which way the powerlines are directed. And who pays the real price. And its not the urban rich folks.

I was in Shanxi provence. Coal mines and powerplants are everywhere both legal and illegal. While Beijing shut coal fed power plants to improve its clean air standards for the Olympics, Shanxi paid the price of rising pollution rates with increased energy capacity with powerlines to Beijing.

I was in Datong in Shanxi for 3 days and I had resperatory problems. I was considered lucky since I had to option to leave. But many of the locals were stuck trying to scrape a living.

Meanwhile back in Beijing, everyone was enjoying the nightlife thanks to powerlines from Shanxi.

I have every sympathy for the unfortunate Shanxi people who are trapped in such appalling environmental conditions, which I too have had sampled during a short trip there!
I know I wud never live there! Life there is such a suffocating gloomy visual experience!:bash:


The root of their misery, however, is not really about Beijing eliciting their energy supply, but an unfair and corrupt political structure whose principles of organization and constitution deliberately exclude the voices and wishes of ordinary folks affected!p-)

[Ordie]

The root of their misery, however, is not really about Beijing eliciting their energy supply, but an unfair and corrupt political structure whose principles of organization and constitution deliberately exclude the voices and wishes of ordinary folks affected!p-)

If Shanxi workers and people ever wanted to get thier point across about local corruption and poor conditions.

They would shutdown the power for Beijing.

[Shuimo]

If Shanxi workers and people ever wanted to get thier point across about local corruption and poor conditions.

They would shutdown the power for Beijing.

So why can't they have their point get across?:bash:

[Jaegermeister + Red Bull]

For the past 20 years, I've visited different parts of China on several occasions on an average of 2-3 weeks at a time.

I'm not saying China is collapsing, but that China is very fragile. To the point that the CCP are more afriad of the Chinese than all the external threats combined. (Including the Dalai Lama)

As for the developmental issues. There are big gaps between the urban rich and the rural poor. If you ever travel in these rural places, it looks like a wasteland of failed policies. You still see collapsing backyard foundaries from the Great Leap Forward, storehouses, and communal kitchens of former collective farms, outdoor stages from the Cultural Revolution period and interstate highways with no exits by-passing small towns in the current period.

The area I visited has been going through a 3 year drought. The situation is very dire to the point that farmers are digging into the ravines for coal to sell.

All chinese state/dynasty are more afraid of its own people than any outside power, for in the end their legitimacy rest with the people.

[Solvent]

All chinese state/dynasty are more afraid of its own people than any outside power, for in the end their legitimacy rest with the people.

The water can support the boat, also can overturn it.