The Return of Israel's Existential Dread

[GiladS]

In tabloid cartoons and dinner conversations, Israelis brace themselves for war with Iran.


http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/images/OB-ET946_Halevi_DV_20091029175119.jpg
By YOSSI KLEIN HALEVI (http://www.militaryphotos.net/search/search_center.html?KEYWORDS=YOSSI+KLEIN+HALEVI&ARTICLESEARCHQUERY_PARSER=bylineAND)

Jerusalem

The postcard from the Home Front Command that recently arrived in my mailbox looks like an ad from the Ministry of Tourism. A map of Israel is divided by color into six regions, each symbolized by an upbeat drawing: a smiling camel in the Negev desert, a skier in the Golan Heights. In fact, each region signifies the amount of time residents will have to seek shelter from an impending missile attack. If you live along the Gaza border, you have 15 seconds after the siren sounds. Jerusalemites get a full three minutes. But as the regions move farther north, the time drops again, until finally, along the Lebanese and Syrian borders, the color red designates "immediate entry into a shelter." In other words, if you're not already inside a shelter don't bother looking for one.

The invisible but all-pervasive presence on that cheerful map of existential dread is Iran. If Israel were to launch a pre-emptive strike against Iranian nuclear facilities, Tehran's two terrorist allies on our borders—Hezbollah and Hamas—would almost certainly renew attacks against the Israeli home front. And Tel Aviv would be hit by Iranian long-range missiles.

On the other hand, if Israel refrains from attacking Iran and international efforts to stop its nuclearization fail, the results along our border would likely be even more catastrophic. Hezbollah and Hamas would be emboldened politically and psychologically. The threat of a nuclear attack on Tel Aviv would become a permanent part of Israeli reality. This would do incalculable damage to Israel's sense of security.

Given these dreadful options, one might assume that the Israeli public would respond with relief to reports that Iran is now considering the International Atomic Energy Agency's proposal to transfer 70% of its known, low-enriched uranium to Russia for treatment that would seriously reduce its potential for military application. In fact, Israelis from the right and the left have reacted with heightened anxiety. "Kosher Uranium," read the mocking headline of Israel's largest daily, Yediot Aharonot. Media commentators noted that easing world pressure on Iran will simply enable it to cheat more easily. If Iranian leaders are prepared to sign an agreement, Israelis argue, that's because they know something the rest of us don't.

In the last few years, Israelis have been asking themselves two questions with increasing urgency: Should we attack Iran if all other options fail? And can we inflict sufficient damage to justify the consequences?

As sanctions efforts faltered, most Israelis came to answer the first question affirmatively. A key moment in coalescing that resolve occurred in December 2006, when the Iranian regime sponsored an "International Conference to Review the Global Vision of the Holocaust," a two day meeting of Holocaust deniers. For Israelis, that event ended the debate over whether a nuclear Iran could be deterred by the threat of counter-force. A regime that assembles the world's crackpots to deny the most documented atrocity in history—at the very moment it is trying to fend off sanctions and convince the international community of its sanity—may well be immune to rational self-interest.

Opinion here has been divided about the ability of an Israeli strike to significantly delay Iran's nuclear program. But Israelis have dealt with their doubts by resurrecting a phrase from the country's early years: Ein breira, there's no choice. Besides, as one leading Israeli security official who has been involved in the Iranian issue for many years put it to me, "Technical problems have technical solutions." Israelis tend to trust their strategic planners to find those solutions.

In the past few months, Israelis have begun asking themselves a new question: Has the Obama administration's engagement with Iran effectively ended the possibility of a military strike?

Few Israelis took seriously the recent call by former U.S. National Security Adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski to shoot down Israeli planes if they take off for Iran. But American attempts to reassure the Israeli public of its commitment to Israel's security have largely backfired. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's recent threat to "obliterate" Iran if it launched a nuclear attack against Israel only reinforced Israeli fears that the U.S. would prefer to contain a nuclear Iran rather than pre-empt it militarily.

On the face of it, this is not May 1967. There is not the same sense of impending catastrophe that held the Israeli public in the weeks before the Six Day War. Israelis are preoccupied with the fate of Gilad Shalit (the kidnapped Israeli soldier held by Hamas), with the country's faltering relations with Turkey, with the U.N.'s denial of Israel's right to defend itself, and with an unprecedented rise in violent crime.

But the Iranian threat has seeped into daily life as a constant, if barely conscious anxiety. It emerges at unexpected moments, as black humor or an incongruous aside in casual conversation. "I think we're going to attack soon," a friend said to me over Sabbath dinner, as we talked about our children going off to the army and to India.

Now, with the possibility of a deal with Iran, Israelis realize that a military confrontation will almost certainly be deferred. Still, the threat remains.
A recent cartoon in the newspaper Ma'ariv showed a drawing of a sukkah, the booth covered with palm branches that Jews build for the autumn festival of Tabernacles. A voice from inside the booth asked, "Will these palm branches protect us from Iranian missiles?"

Israelis still believe in their ability to protect themselves—and many believe too in the divine protection that is said to hover over the fragile booths. Both are expressions of faith from a people that fear they may once again face the unthinkable alone.

Mr. Klein Halevi is a senior fellow at the Adelson Institute for Strategic Studies at the Shalem Center in Jerusalem, and a contributing editor to the New Republic.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704107204574471282155997704.html?mod=rss_Today's_Most_Popular


The Home Front Command 'postcard' (English version):

http://hashmonean.com/images/pikud1.jpg

[RoyB]

I guess we will just have to live with a nuclear Iran.
The believe that Israel might strike is passing away with time, the US doesn't show any interest either, to be honest.

[Clockwinder]

Israel has never been one to sit on their hands and worry about world opinion. the seeming disinterest is a ploy? A reaction (or non-reaction) to information the rest of us don't have? Just how capable and ready is Iran? I find it incredible that Israel would tolerate such a threat. Especially given their previous actions in Iraq and Syria. There is no way the Israelis have suddenly gone PC.

[kamaz]

netanyahu today agreed on the framework to export Iran's uranium for enrichment. Its either a ploy or he wants Iran to move its uranium where it can be intercepted in transition. Its easier to intercept and neutralize than bombing a country directly, less casualties and obviously less threat to air assets.

[GiladS]

Israel has never been one to sit on their hands and worry about world opinion.

It's more to do with Isral lacking the resources to effectively hit the Iranian nuclear program rather than the fear of negative world opinion.

[RoyB]

It's more to do with Isral lacking the resources to effectively hit the Iranian nuclear program rather than the fear of negative world opinion.
I share the opinion that Israel simply cant go at this one alone.
Its either we go at it together on not at all.

[Moledet]

netanyahu today agreed on the framework to export Iran's uranium for enrichment. Its either a ploy or he wants Iran to move its uranium where it can be intercepted in transition. Its easier to intercept and neutralize than bombing a country directly, less casualties and obviously less threat to air assets.
It's simply diplomacy, he agreed today because he got the news that Iran won't agree. This way he can say, "we agreed and they didn't, see?".

[bono]

Watch CNN much?


I guess we will just have to live with a nuclear Iran.
The believe that Israel might strike is passing away with time, the US doesn't show any interest either, to be honest.

[Super Sheep]

Everyone loves to jump on the bandwagon, bitching and moaning about "Palestinian plight" and damn "ze evil Zionists". But small, minute things like the postcard posted above just illustrates the daily & "normal" nightmare Israelis and the state faces everyday.

The only thing worse than actual attack is the constant fear of attack. Never knowing when death will strike. Always double thinking about wherever you should go to the mall or go out shopping. Or if your kids are safe on the way to school, even if they are safe at school. Things like walking your dog might get you shot, or hand grenades chucked at, even mortared or blown up. Then coming home after a long day of work, only to turn on the TV and see a news broadcast of a suicide bombing at your work, or somewhere you were just at a few minutes ago. Realizing that you narrowly missed certain death. Having to install multiply deadbolts on your front door, or installing bulletproof glass for your windows. Living in a place where bomb shelters and safe rooms is the norm, not the exception. Just imagining having to deal with all that stress & uncertainty and being powerless to do anything but keep on living.

Now that is dangerous living, just imaging this happening on the streets of LA or London or even Shanghai.

Unbelievable.

[GiladS]

Everyone loves to jump on the bandwagon, bitching and moaning about "Palestinian plight" and damn "ze evil Zionists". But small, minute things like the postcard posted above just illustrates the daily & "normal" nightmare Israelis and the state faces everyday.

The only thing worse than actual attack is the constant fear of attack. Never knowing when death will strike. Always double thinking about wherever you should go to the mall or go out shopping. Or if your kids are safe on the way to school, even if they are safe at school. Things like walking your dog might get you shot, or hand grenades chucked at, even mortared or blown up. Then coming home after a long day of work, only to turn on the TV and see a news broadcast of a suicide bombing at your work, or somewhere you were just at a few minutes ago. Realizing that you narrowly missed certain death. Having to install multiply deadbolts on your front door, or installing bulletproof glass for your windows. Living in a place where bomb shelters and safe rooms is the norm, not the exception. Just imagining having to deal with all that stress & uncertainty and being powerless to do anything but keep on living.

Now that is dangerous living, just imaging this happening on the streets of LA or London or even Shanghai.

Unbelievable.

A vid that describes the situation in southern Israel (before Operation Cast Lead at least) in the best manner:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hnYFEn6DLcw

[Chiptox]

Everyone loves to jump on the bandwagon, bitching and moaning about "Palestinian plight" and damn "ze evil Zionists". But small, minute things like the postcard posted above just illustrates the daily & "normal" nightmare Israelis and the state faces everyday.

The only thing worse than actual attack is the constant fear of attack. Never knowing when death will strike. Always double thinking about wherever you should go to the mall or go out shopping. Or if your kids are safe on the way to school, even if they are safe at school. Things like walking your dog might get you shot, or hand grenades chucked at, even mortared or blown up. Then coming home after a long day of work, only to turn on the TV and see a news broadcast of a suicide bombing at your work, or somewhere you were just at a few minutes ago. Realizing that you narrowly missed certain death. Having to install multiply deadbolts on your front door, or installing bulletproof glass for your windows. Living in a place where bomb shelters and safe rooms is the norm, not the exception. Just imagining having to deal with all that stress & uncertainty and being powerless to do anything but keep on living.

Now that is dangerous living, just imaging this happening on the streets of LA or London or even Shanghai.

Unbelievable.
And in spite of that an Israeli would never give up their home or their way of life for anything else in the world. Just being an Israeli citizen entitles a person to a certain amount of respect in my eyes.

However, Iran is no threat to the US or, for all intents and purposes, anybody outside Israel. The opposite nearly as true. Perhaps it is finally time for Israel and Iran to come face to face and settle this dispute on their own instead of depending on the assistance of half-interested hegemonic partners who only parade this issue on the world stage for their own means.

[deathil93]

We'll attack if everything else fails, I doubt that the public in Israel and the government would be willing to live with the constant fear of nuclear death.
We'll attack with the help of the US or without it.


And in spite of that an Israeli would never give up their home or their way of life for anything else in the world. Just being an Israeli citizen entitles a person to a certain amount of respect in my eyes.

However, Iran is no threat to the US or, for all intents and purposes, anybody outside Israel. The opposite nearly as true. Perhaps it is finally time for Israel and Iran to come face to face and settle this dispute on their own instead of depending on the assistance of half-interested hegemonic partners who only parade this issue on the world stage for their own means.
2 problems:

A) Iran doesn't want anything to do with Israel, except off course wiping us out.

B) It goes deeper than that, Iran will only start thinking of peace when we have peace with the Palestinians (probably will never happen, specially when their so called government is always trying to launch rockets at us).

[CMNot]

A little question, why is it in English not Hebrew?

[RoyB]

Watch CNN much?
No, actually.
What that has to do with anything?

A little question, why is it in English not Hebrew?
I guess because it is the English version.
Obviously, its being handed out in Hebrew in Israel.

[Tyon]

Or there is just a english version to educate the world a little bit about the whole mess that is Sderot.
I think its been a few days... want to open a "will israel attack..." thread.... just once... must resist.... ;)

And thank you for the postcard, very interesting.

[Moledet]

A little question, why is it in English not Hebrew?
English is a second language in Israel.
It has versions in Hebrew, Arabic, English and Russian.
http://www.oref.org.il/sip_storage/FILES/8/1078.jpg

[GiladS]

A little question, why is it in English not Hebrew?

In the post I explained:

The Home Front Command 'postcard' (English version):


Hebrew isn't the native language of many Israelis.

My mother has been living in the country since 1972 and she still has a hard time reading and writing Hebrew.

[GiladS]

Home Front: Are we prepared for war?

By YAAKOV LAPPIN (editors@jpost.com)

By all accounts, in the event of a future round of hostilities in the region, it will be the home front that will be the target of choice for Hizbullah, Hamas and Iran.

In southern Lebanon, rocket caches hidden in Shi'ite villages have, on occasion, exploded accidentally over the past few months, providing a glimpse into Hizbullah's massive rearmament efforts, which are focused on the acquisition of long-range projectiles capable of striking deep into Israel.

The interception of an Iranian arms ship last week carrying almost 3,000 rockets destined for Hizbullah, and recent intelligence reports on the test-firing of a rocket by Hamas in Gaza able to strike Tel Aviv, offer more evidence that these two terrorist armies are quietly stocking up on weapons designed to severely disrupt civilian population centers.
Israel is watching on the sidelines as Iran stonewalls diplomatic efforts to rein in its nuclear program, but has hinted that it will not wait forever. Iran possesses a long-range ballistic missile program that, too, could be turned against the Israeli home front.

In light of these threats, it seems natural to ask: How prepared is the home front for war?
Clearly, the answer to this question cannot begin in 2009, but rather in 2006 during the Second Lebanon War, when the country found itself wholly unprepared for large-scale rocket fire on the North.

Masses of disgruntled northerners, fed up with sleeping in poorly equipped bomb shelters, fled southward, after local services ground to a halt and the Home Front Command was slow to respond to events on the ground.
"We have learned many lessons since the Second Lebanon War," said Col. Chilik Soffer, head of population at the Home Front Command, during an interview last week.

Indeed, the Home Front Command has emerged from the shambles of 2006 and busied itself with studying what went wrong. It has instituted a complete reform of its working practices. "Many big changes have been under way," Soffer said.

Instructions for civilians to remain in bomb shelters for days on end were consigned to the dustbin. Instead, civilians have been instructed to take advantage of peacetime to locate "safe zones" - rooms, stairwells or bomb shelters - in which they will be least exposed to rocket attacks. Members of the public need only remain in the safe zones for the duration of a rocket attack.

"Our figures show that during both the Second Lebanon War, in which 41 civilians were killed, and Operation Cast Least, in which three civilians lost their lives to rockets, 90 percent of deaths occurred in open areas," Soffer said. "Those who enter designated safe zones during rocket attacks are very likely to emerge without any injury."

Communication channels with the general public have been radically improved, with information being made available through mailed leaflets, TV and radio ad campaigns, and the Home Front Command's Internet site.
"The bottom line is that there has been a very positive revolution since the Second Lebanon War," said Gidi Grinstein, founder and director of the Reut Institute, a strategic planning body. "In my 20 years in the field, it's the most positive sign I've seen."

Soffer said there could be no better example of the improvements made than the public's appraisal of the Home Front Command during Operation Cast Lead, two and a half years after the Second Lebanon War.
During a poll taken by the Home Front Command on January 19, one day after the fighting ended, 95 percent of residents in the south said they had full confidence in the Home Front Command's abilities.
BUT ACCORDING to a report published by Reut and the Israel Trauma Coalition in September, the picture isn't all rosy.

Sections of the home front could face collapse in the next war or natural disaster unless a network of civilian sectors is created and trained to deal with emergencies, the report said.

"Despite all that was done since 2007, the enormous investment of funds, personnel, exercise and budgets, and despite what we saw during Operation Cast Lead, Israel remains exposed to the danger of home front collapse in certain areas," Grinstein said.

"A home front collapse could be characterized by public disorder, looting, and a total loss of trust by the public due to a dramatic gap between the state's resources, on the one hand, and expectations by the public on the other."

But Soffer dismissed concerns of social collapse during wartime. "All research done on the subject shows that the looting threat is a myth. In fact, most citizens are adaptive, and become more adaptive during wars and disasters. Levels of anti-social behavior and crime fall during wars."
The Reut Institute has stressed that current efforts at readiness have been very good, but remain incomplete.

"The problem is that the home front has had no place in the dominant security concept in Israel. We believe it must be integrated into security thinking, as a central component," Grinstein said.

"The home front does have an important place in security thinking," countered Soffer. "Organizing the civilian sector is seen as critical. We've been dealing with threats to civilians since 1948, when Egyptian planes bombed Tel Aviv. This is not a new threat."

Still, Grinstein says he is concerned by the prospect of an unprecedented assault on civilians in a future war, which could be far more widespread than the limited northern or southern zones that past conflicts have been limited to.

"There are huge resources that are not being recruited, this is where the report is focused," he said. "One chemical weapon could lead to thousands of casualties."

He praised a Home Front Command plan to use gyms across the country as alternatives to hospitals for the treatment of victims in the event of a chemical missile attack.
As part of a civilian national emergency network, the Reut Institute's report recommends that charities which provide vital services like food deliveries be identified and provided with means to continue working in a national emergency situation.

"We do agree with Reut's report on this point. There is a need to employ charities which provide essential services to create a support network," Soffer said. "We have been doing that. The emphasis has been on getting civilians to provide help to one another in their areas. It's logical to create priorities of people whom you can help.


"We plan to take all high school students and train them to be volunteers, to expand the support network by 300,000 people."

Reut is concerned by the prospect of a breakdown in private sector services, like the delivery of cash to ATMs or food to supermarkets. But Soffer said such a breakdown would not take place, since "the government is responsible for assisting civilians if that happens."
Grinstein said that the Home Front Command was not fully integrating civilians into its preperations, adding, "the Home Front Command is a hierarchical organization. Citizens must be spoken to and recruited in the right way."

He pointed to the low level of participation in June's Turning Point civil defense drill, in which the Home Front Command asked members of the public to respond to mock air raid sirens by evacuating to safe zones. But Soffer said polls taken of the general population showed that the majority did partake in the exercise. The polls did reflect regional differences, however, with northern and southern residents taking part in the exercise in larger numbers than those who reside in the center.

Ultimately, Soffer said, it was important to remember to keep things in perspective. He stressed that anti-missile defense programs "which provide answers" are being developed and deployed, and that the Israeli public was accustomed to enduring national emergencies.

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?apage=1&cid=1258027277813&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull

[GiladS]

Israel Home Front Command instructions on protecting yourself during rocket and mortar attacks:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iiKipcrUXpg

[GiladS]

Home Front Command bracing for missiles in Tel-Aviv

By YAAKOV KATZ (yaakovk@jpost.com)

The IDF Home Front Command is preparing for the possibility that Hamas will fire missiles up to a range of 80 kilometers from the Gaza Strip in the event of a future conflict with Israel, The Jerusalem Post has learned.


The preparations are being carried out on several different levels within the IDF, with a focus on preparing regional council members and municipality officials within the range - including Tel Aviv and Ramat Gan - for the possibility of missile and rocket attacks in their communities.
During Operation Cast Lead, which began December 27, 2008, Hamas fired rockets to a range of around 40 km., hitting Ashdod and Yavneh. In late September, Hamas fired a missile with a 60 km. range from the Gaza Strip into the Mediterranean Sea.

The IDF is also preparing information kits that could be distributed in the affected areas, as well as Home Front Command reserve units that would need to be deployed there in the event of rocket attacks.

The IDF believes that Hamas has obtained Iranian-made Fajr missiles, either the Fajr 3 or Fajr 5. The Fajr 3 is five meters long and can carry a 45-kilogram warhead. To increase the rocket's range, Hamas has the option of shrinking the warhead to 25 or 30 kilograms, enabling it to strike deeper into Tel Aviv.
Hizbullah also possesses such a missile.


The Fajr 5 is slightly larger - 10 meters long - and has a range of up to 75 km, which could reach Tel Aviv, as well as communities further up the coast. Intelligence assessments are that Hamas smuggled the missiles into the Gaza Strip through tunnels, possibly as separate components. Iran already supplies Hamas with 122mm Katyusha rockets that are smuggled into Gaza in several pieces, then assembled by Hamas engineers.

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1260181024880&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull

[tluassa]

Nuclear threat ? So far, Iran can rightly feel much more threatened than Israel. If both sides have nukes in the future, it may very likely settle down to a balance-of-destruction like in the Cold War ... when both sides have to fear total annihilation, it actually decreases the change of even "conventional" military action. (at least direct ones)

That would of course mean that Israel would have to show off "their" arsernal to counter Iran, and so far as I know it is not even known what the Israelis have in store.

[the_Wicked]

Nuclear threat ? So far, Iran can rightly feel much more threatened than Israel. If both sides have nukes in the future, it may very likely settle down to a balance-of-destruction like in the Cold War ... when both sides have to fear total annihilation, it actually decreases the change of even "conventional" military action. (at least direct ones)

That would of course mean that Israel would have to show off "their" arsernal to counter Iran, and so far as I know it is not even known what the Israelis have in store.

Israel had nukes for half a century and never used them, not even when threatened by invasion in 1973. I think its a safe bet that Israel is no threat to anyone in that regard.

Iran is a different story, they are an unknown at this point and according to their rhetoric they would have no problems using nukes on enemies. So why gamble with Irans good intentions, when we can eliminate the risk altogether?

[tluassa]

But we should also consider that the only War Iran has fought at all recently was against Iraq, and in that case they were the ones attacked. Rhethoric is one thing, and I agree Iran is undoubtly in control of lunatics, but even they know how easily Israel could fry them if they wanted to.

[the_Wicked]

But we should also consider that the only War Iran has fought at all recently was against Iraq, and in that case they were the ones attacked. Rhethoric is one thing, and I agree Iran is undoubtly in control of lunatics, but even they know how easily Israel could fry them if they wanted to.

Wrong, what about Hezbollah? They are effectively part of Iran's forces. I'm not buying this at all, the risk on this is TOO ****ING BIG. Even if there's only 1% chance that Iran would use its nukes its a chance not worth taking. The result of a nuclear exchange is unthinkable.

[Mastermind]

It is a terrible situation that no one has a viable solution to. Certainly not an acceptable solution to.

I firmly believe the only path for Israel is to continue working on as many alliances as possible, keeping the world guessing as to her nuclear weaponry and to hold onto peace as long as possible with her border threats...yet, demonstrating she is fully ready to deal with any and all conventional threats.

Attacking Iran will not remove the potential of a nuclear armed Iran. It will most likely ensure the determined effort of Iran to achieve nuclear capability and unify the national will to destroy Israel. The "time is on our side" argument most certainly plays in Israels political favor, not Iran's. The political situation in Iran is unstable and there is sme degree of expectation this instability works well for Israel and the world as far as Iran's belligerence is concerned...If Iranian leaders are distracted at home, the less they will be acting out on foreign affairs.

There is a practical side to Iran's situation appreciative in Israels favor, in that hatred expressed by unpopular leaders to unify the people at home is very self destructive...as we have observed in Iran's recent displays of unhappy populace. The nuclear program in Iran has not gone well...is not resulting in a nuclear weapon so far, despite Iran's claims of enormous expense. If Israel were to accomplish any action detrimental to Iran's program, I believe it would take a much more covert posture than some "cowboy" overt attack.

Regardless, Iran is seeking, at face value, a weapon that can be of little or no use to it. It is simply, in practical terms, only a defensive weapon...not an offensive weapon. To use it would result in unacceptable responses, in both political and military considerations. Even the insane Iranian President would not ever be so bold as to use it or to deliver it to radical elements...the source of such weapons is readily identifiable, even in the aftermath. The world response to such an act would merit the demise of Iran as a power and possibly as a nation.

So....
It would seem, Israel's best response to the Iranian problem is to ignore it...even to the point Iran actually develops a nuclear weapon and is able to prove it. Israel should continue with business as usual, display an aloof attitude toward Iran's claims, and if Iran detonated a weapon underground or openly, Israel should simply state to the world, any nuclear attack on any nation by Iran will result in Israel's immediate military response on Tehran and other military targets inside Iran ...let the Iranian military continue to wonder if Israel has a nuclear weapon in her arsenal...which, currently, I beleive they believe Israel has such a weapon...and probably a pretty good supply of them.

[ren0312]

It is a terrible situation that no one has a viable solution to. Certainly not an acceptable solution to.

I firmly believe the only path for Israel is to continue working on as many alliances as possible, keeping the world guessing as to her nuclear weaponry and to hold onto peace as long as possible with her border threats...yet, demonstrating she is fully ready to deal with any and all conventional threats.

Attacking Iran will not remove the potential of a nuclear armed Iran. It will most likely ensure the determined effort of Iran to achieve nuclear capability and unify the national will to destroy Israel. The "time is on our side" argument most certainly plays in Israels political favor, not Iran's. The political situation in Iran is unstable and there is sme degree of expectation this instability works well for Israel and the world as far as Iran's belligerence is concerned...If Iranian leaders are distracted at home, the less they will be acting out on foreign affairs.

There is a practical side to Iran's situation appreciative in Israels favor, in that hatred expressed by unpopular leaders to unify the people at home is very self destructive...as we have observed in Iran's recent displays of unhappy populace. The nuclear program in Iran has not gone well...is not resulting in a nuclear weapon so far, despite Iran's claims of enormous expense. If Israel were to accomplish any action detrimental to Iran's program, I believe it would take a much more covert posture than some "cowboy" overt attack.

Regardless, Iran is seeking, at face value, a weapon that can be of little or no use to it. It is simply, in practical terms, only a defensive weapon...not an offensive weapon. To use it would result in unacceptable responses, in both political and military considerations. Even the insane Iranian President would not ever be so bold as to use it or to deliver it to radical elements...the source of such weapons is readily identifiable, even in the aftermath. The world response to such an act would merit the demise of Iran as a power and possibly as a nation.

So....
It would seem, Israel's best response to the Iranian problem is to ignore it...even to the point Iran actually develops a nuclear weapon and is able to prove it. Israel should continue with business as usual, display an aloof attitude toward Iran's claims, and if Iran detonated a weapon underground or openly, Israel should simply state to the world, any nuclear attack on any nation by Iran will result in Israel's immediate military response on Tehran and other military targets inside Iran ...let the Iranian military continue to wonder if Israel has a nuclear weapon in her arsenal...which, currently, I beleive they believe Israel has such a weapon...and probably a pretty good supply of them.

But how widespread is the oppostion in Iran, my impression is that most of the opposition comes from the upper and the middle class (who have never liked Ahmedinajad in the first place), and from the urban areas (where communication facilities tend to be better than the more remote rural areas where most of the regimes/Ahmedinajad supporters come from), in other words those who have the most ready access to the internet tend to be those who have less favorable towards the regime, while most of the lower classes and those from the rural areas are still supportive of the regime, and can be considered as its base of support, opinions from the internet (the Mousavi supporters may just have better access to the internet and be more tech savvy compared to the Ahmedinajad supporters), such as from Facebook and Twitter, also tend to be distorted since only a limited part of the population have access to it or actually get on those sites, thus while I think the Iranian government is encountering opposition from within the population, the opposition may still not have gotten much support from the wider Iranian population, aside from the part of the population that never really liked the the regime from the start (the upper the and the middle class, and those who live in the big cities), the fact the the military has not turned against the regime may also be an indicator who what the sentiments of the Iranian population are towards the government.

[Mastermind]

We are not concerned with how wide spread the opposition is...merely that there is effective opposition...effective enough to cause some degree of worry...in other words, Iran is not monolithic at all, and thus, highly dangerous or unpopular moves by the gvt in the foreseeable future are dampened..not stopped, not thwarted, just that the guys running the place for the time being, must think about their actions and how they might affect the electorate and the potential for pushing people in to the streets.