Future of Egypt and democracy in the region?

[Flagg]

Something I've been thinking about lately is what does the future hold for Egypt and other US allies in the region.

Egypt has essentially been under martial law/dictatorship since the coming to power of Mubarak and the continued effect of emergency powers laws since the assassination of Anwar Sadat nearly 25 years ago.

A number of questions are raised:

Mubarak's age and health have resulted in many questioning who his successor will be. Some have pegged one of his sons to replace him, but wouldn't that result in severe credibility issues for Egypt AND the United States?

The US is pushing for democratic reform in the region with it's efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan but it's strongest(non-Israeli) allies are ALL effectively dictators carrying either the title of President or Prince.

How can the NEED for dictatorship to prevent groups like the Muslim Brotherhood and Al Queda from gaining the popular vote in a democratic election be reconciled with the stated desire to bring about democracy in the region?

How can US efforts to remove the "axis of evil" threat posed by North Korea and Iran be considered legitimate in the eyes of the world when the US supports so many illegitimate leaders of nations by it's own definition(Pakistan,Egypt,Saudi Arabia, suddenly Libya, etc.)?

How likely is the region to see another revolution along the lines of the fall of the Shah in Iran in 1979 and it echoing elsewhere?

Also, if a shift to democracy does occur in the region, what guarantee is there that it will NOT be hostile to the US as it supported the previous oppressive regimes?

I hope this isn't too much to cover in one thread as I think the questions posed are intertwined.

Also, I am not trying to incite a flamewar with this thread.

What I am trying to do is ask those that reply to try and put yourselves in the shoes of a person living in the region, because I can see how US foreign policy can have the appearance of being quite hypocritical in the eyes of many there.

[Tane Angle]

Very good questions, Flagg. Not too long ago I was reading an "20-years from now" essay, and one thing it mentioned was US Embassy locations. The author put good money on us losing our Embassy in Egypt but gaining a full one in Tehran. A full one in Iraq is already underway, and things have the potential to change in regards to Syria. Saudi Arabia is unstable at best, and if I remember right, the author doubted we'd have one there or in Yemen. I think the author also thought we'd lose ours in Pakistan. This is over the next few decades, of course.

Me personally, I don't know, but it was an interesting essary, I'll see if I can find it again.

I've often tried to reconcile the obvious chasm between what we often say and what we often do. On the one hand, my job isn't to look out for Egyptians or anyone else, it's to look out for Americans. No US government official to my knowledge, including the President, takes an oath to protect any other nationality than Americans. So what is in the best long-term interest of Americans should take precedence over other priorities such as supporting democracy, I suppose.

On the other hand, how can we claim to be such a great nation when we prop up dictactors who brutally oppress their own people? What happened to that whole Special Forces motto thing? As you said, Flagg, our credibility is indeed dampened when we say "Go democracy!" but then support dictactors.

One thing that worries me about President Bush's foreign policy is that part of it is mutually exclusive: Are we trying to spread democracy in the region? Or are we trying to be allies with Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the other Gulf states? It's one or the other, not both.

Your last point in bold is especially noteworthy. Take Iraq, for example. Let's assume for a moment that the Iraqis democractically elect a government that decides to break off diplomatic relations with the US? Can we say no? Or what if the Iraqis democratically decide that they don't want a democracy, but a fundamentalist theocracy. Can we say no? This is all hypothetical ethics, of course, not exactly real likelihoods.

I've got to run for now, but great questions, Flagg. I'd be interested to hear what you think. Have a good one, and just some thoughts....

[Fintin]

my question is, is a dictatorship nessisarily a bad thing...sure there are plenty of people to point at and say so and so was a bad dictator...but in essence isnt a dictator a king by a differnt name...and kingdoms worked for thousands of years...

maybe insted of saying "go democracy" we should say go fairness...if a dictatorship is oppressing its people, hurting those we should expect them to take care of...then we should step in...IE Iraq....


sorry if this doesnt make sence...i just felt like rambling for a bit...ill try and think of some more later...good thread flagg

[Kilgor]

Thats a good point.

Maybe the only way things can get done is dictatorship in the middle east.

Why was there no religious violence in saddams days ?

He ruled with a iron fist and kept the factions, clans and tribes under strict control. It wasnt pretty, but I guess it kept internal control.

In no way justifying what he did, but im really doubtful there will ever be democracy in the middle east. (except isreal) of course :P

[Moledet]

Arabs only understand iron fists. Democracy won't work well for them and if it will work than the PM/President will turn into a dictator in no time.

[Kilgor]

The islamic extremists wouldnt have dared done what they are doing in iraq today, if it was under saddam.

They would have been rounded up and slaughtered... problem solved.

It seems its either a choice between islamic fundamentalist governments or brutal dictatorships.

[UoUo]

The thing is that in the day that Egept become a democraCY the Extrimst group will come to power..cuz if you like it or not..if there is something that they hate more then Israel...it the USA.

[Fintin]

Arabs only understand iron fists. Democracy won't work well for them and if it will work than the PM/President will turn into a dictator in no time.

i think thats going a little far...it may be the only thing most have known for ages...literaly...but take into acount the fact that detroit has the highest arab population outside of the middle east...things work go fine...they have adapted to democracy wonderfuly...and many of these arabs are only recent trainsplants

[duck]

I strongly suspect that the average egyptian youth is much more concerned with his studies, job and partner search and trying to have a good time than hating good old America. Just like the Israeli youth on the other side of the border probably has better things to do than describe Arabs as morons who have to be ruled by an "iron fist".

[Moledet]

Arabs only understand iron fists. Democracy won't work well for them and if it will work than the PM/President will turn into a dictator in no time.

i think thats going a little far...it may be the only thing most have known for ages...literaly...but take into acount the fact that detroit has the highest arab population outside of the middle east...things work go fine...they have adapted to democracy wonderfuly...and many of these arabs are only recent trainsplants
They haven't adopted, they are just not enough to change anything. That's the same reason that they are not uprising in Israel, they are only 20% of the population, they have no chance.
We call them (Israeli arabs) the 5th regiment, because we know that they will uprise when they will feel that they are in advantage.

[UoUo]

I strongly suspect that the average egyptian youth is much more concerned with his studies, job and partner search and trying to have a good time than hating good old America. Just like the Israeli youth on the other side of the border probably has better things to do than describe Arabs as morons who have to be ruled by an "iron fist".


No they don't have better things to do..

And nobody ever learnd me to hate arabs or something like that..you can't say it about the egyptian that feed from the media...and Guees what tier media tell them?

[Fintin]

Arabs only understand iron fists. Democracy won't work well for them and if it will work than the PM/President will turn into a dictator in no time.

i think thats going a little far...it may be the only thing most have known for ages...literaly...but take into acount the fact that detroit has the highest arab population outside of the middle east...things work go fine...they have adapted to democracy wonderfuly...and many of these arabs are only recent trainsplants
They haven't adopted, they are just not enough to change anything. That's the same reason that they are not uprising in Israel, they are only 20% of the population, they have no chance.
We call them (Israeli arabs) the 5th regiment, because we know that they will uprise when they will feel that they are in advantage.

one thing i have learned so far in life...if you expect someone to react in a certain way...they will...as for saying that arabs in the US havnt adapted to democracy...do you live here...are you neighbors with them...friends with them...they may not have taken on our culture...i dont expect that...no one should...but they charish their freedom...please...dont make negitive remarks about my friends and neighbors

[Moledet]

Arabs only understand iron fists. Democracy won't work well for them and if it will work than the PM/President will turn into a dictator in no time.

i think thats going a little far...it may be the only thing most have known for ages...literaly...but take into acount the fact that detroit has the highest arab population outside of the middle east...things work go fine...they have adapted to democracy wonderfuly...and many of these arabs are only recent trainsplants
They haven't adopted, they are just not enough to change anything. That's the same reason that they are not uprising in Israel, they are only 20% of the population, they have no chance.
We call them (Israeli arabs) the 5th regiment, because we know that they will uprise when they will feel that they are in advantage.

one thing i have learned so far in life...if you expect someone to react in a certain way...they will...as for saying that arabs in the US havnt adapted to democracy...do you live here...are you neighbors with them...friends with them...they may not have taken on our culture...i dont expect that...no one should...but they charish their freedom...please...dont make negitive remarks about my friends and neighbors
What can I say? Enjoy living in illusions.

[Flagg]

Very good questions, Flagg. Not too long ago I was reading an "20-years from now" essay, and one thing it mentioned was US Embassy locations. The author put good money on us losing our Embassy in Egypt but gaining a full one in Tehran. A full one in Iraq is already underway, and things have the potential to change in regards to Syria. Saudi Arabia is unstable at best, and if I remember right, the author doubted we'd have one there or in Yemen. I think the author also thought we'd lose ours in Pakistan. This is over the next few decades, of course.

Me personally, I don't know, but it was an interesting essary, I'll see if I can find it again.

I've often tried to reconcile the obvious chasm between what we often say and what we often do. On the one hand, my job isn't to look out for Egyptians or anyone else, it's to look out for Americans. No US government official to my knowledge, including the President, takes an oath to protect any other nationality than Americans. So what is in the best long-term interest of Americans should take precedence over other priorities such as supporting democracy, I suppose.

On the other hand, how can we claim to be such a great nation when we prop up dictactors who brutally oppress their own people? What happened to that whole Special Forces motto thing? As you said, Flagg, our credibility is indeed dampened when we say "Go democracy!" but then support dictactors.

One thing that worries me about President Bush's foreign policy is that part of it is mutually exclusive: Are we trying to spread democracy in the region? Or are we trying to be allies with Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the other Gulf states? It's one or the other, not both.

Your last point in bold is especially noteworthy. Take Iraq, for example. Let's assume for a moment that the Iraqis democractically elect a government that decides to break off diplomatic relations with the US? Can we say no? Or what if the Iraqis democratically decide that they don't want a democracy, but a fundamentalist theocracy. Can we say no? This is all hypothetical ethics, of course, not exactly real likelihoods.

I've got to run for now, but great questions, Flagg. I'd be interested to hear what you think. Have a good one, and just some thoughts....

I believe my biggest fear is an Islamic Ghandi or Martin Luther King who is an opponent of the US and the West.

Someone or group willing to choose effective non-violent protest as their weapon(and equally willing to sacrifice many followers as "media tools") to create fundamental change in the region would be nearly impossible to stop unless unethical methods are used to undermine such a person or group.

The US couldn't oppose such action without taking a lot of political and ethical hits....and I'm quite surprised such a "figurehead" hasn't reached liberal western media to date

If US foreign policy goals really are focused primarily on US interests, how can anyone rightously claim the US is a "global cop"?

As a cop implies someone who is impartially acting on the behalf of all, rather than primarily out of self-interest.

I believe that if the primary objective is to improve the better good of the region, democratic rule should be encouraged, with a stick if necessary.....but the potential downside from a region where the leadership is closely linked to the US, but the general population is not, could lead to a bigger problem......credible democratic governments leveraging their oil resources to both maximise their revenue and punish the west for supporting past regimes....sort of like involuntary reparations for past wrongs.

If the primary objective is to build stability in the region and ensure the flow of reasonably priced oil then supporting dictatorships is a necessary evil, but it would likely require the US to take a "realpolitik" approach to rebuild credibility by dropping it's communicated desire to seek democratic reform and just be honest about its goals.

I believe the support of dictatorial regimes is a necessary evil in the short-term....but I fear we may be facing the same scenario the Soviets faced in trying to hold together Eastern Europe in the 1980's except the "weapons" used then(fax machines, photocopiers, word processors, telephones, etc. for decentralised communication for democratic reform) to undermine dictatorial communism pale in comparison to the wireless internet "weapons" commonly available today.

I've read about Assad's liquidation of Hama in 1982 to quell the Muslim Brotherhood......and how effective it was......I only hope a less bloody solution can be found to solving future and likely inevitable uprisings.

I fear the Muslim version of King's "I have a dream" speech, not for what it could potentially accomplish, but for what it would destabilise.

[Kilgor]

Arabs can live under democracy so it is in places like america , australia , and the UK. Where there are laws, police and rules to enforce human rights and secularism.

For the arabs who live under their own rulers and religion, the human rights are far far worse.

[UoUo]

Arabs can live under democracy so it is in places like america , australia , and the UK. Where there are laws, police and rules to enforce human rights and secularism.

For the arabs who live under their own rulers and religion, the human rights are far far worse.

You forgot to add Israel to the list.

[Fintin]

What can I say? Enjoy living in illusions.

i really dont understand you...you seem to have some unwarented angst...



I believe my biggest fear is an Islamic Ghandi or Martin Luther King who is an opponent of the US and the West.

Someone or group willing to choose effective non-violent protest as their weapon(and equally willing to sacrifice many followers as "media tools") to create fundamental change in the region would be nearly impossible to stop unless unethical methods are used to undermine such a person or group.

i dont know if we should worry if they like us or not...but if they like themselves...if a country can run itself peacfuly and productivly...that seems like it would be a welcome trade off...

but i dont see this ever happening...if a country takes on that type of atitued...i feel they would be more then willing to befriend the west

[Tane Angle]

If US foreign policy goals really are focused primarily on US interests, how can anyone rightously claim the US is a "global cop"?

As a cop implies someone who is impartially acting on the behalf of all, rather than primarily out of self-interest.

Well our FP doesn't always have Americans' best interest at heart, but I think it should. That's the whole point of organizing into villages, city-states, nations, or unions like the EU-not to do the nice thing necessarily, but "to provide for the common defense." If we're not going to do so, fine, but let's change the US Constitution and the oaths so that we're at least honest.

It is interesting that there has yet to be major King- or Gandhi-type figure in the Middle East. I think one of the Tom Clancy novels has one it it. Anyways, you are right, that would be someone who we could not defeat most likely.

Regarding certain non-Flagg comments:

UoUo wrote:

No they don't have better things to do
I can't really comment on Egyptians, but I can tell you that nearly all Lebanese Shiites didn't care one way or another about Israel prior to the 1982 invasion. They were not filled with hate towards Israel. They did have better things to do, like, as duck already noted, studying, finding a job and working, finding a wife, etc.

Moledet wrote:

Arabs only understand iron fists. Democracy won't work well for them and if it will work than the PM/President will turn into a dictator in no time. Lebanon had a relatively functional Arab democracy for a long time. Had the government actually remained a democracy, Civil War might have been prevented. The Christians wouldn't stand for a real democracy (as the Muslims, particularly the Shiites, made up the majority in the years immediately preceding the war), so war came. It showed that democracy could work in an Arab country though.

Like Fintin, I take offense at these generalizations of Muslims or Arabs as seemingly single-minded killers. Ever actually had tea with a Muslim? Ever slept in a bed across the room from a Shiite? Probably the smartest thing I've ever done in such a situation was to take off my sidearm. It showed trust, and as Fintin so well put-
one thing i have learned so far in life...if you expect someone to react in a certain way...they will...

Had I kept it on, it would have shown that I felt my hosts to be my enemies, and they would have acted as such. By extending the hand of friendship, they did so as well.

I owe my life and the lives of others to Muslims. I consider some among my closest friends. They have been there when I needed them and not abandoned me even though they should have, including during times when they knew their life would be forfeit if they stayed with me. They have conducted themselves with the utmost honor, personal integrity, and selfless courage. Are you telling me that those people who protected me-and even protected the United States-are just beings with a single-minded purpose: to destroy Israel and the US? Do you think going around insulting people's friends-and virtual family-earns you respect? Maybe if we treat one anothers' friends with respect, we will be respect in turn, no?

Have a good one, and just some thoughts...

[UoUo]

With all do respect...i don't think that you can learn me to live side by side with musilms/arab people....


Yes i think the arab world can change to democracy...but the current generation can't cuz if you like it or not most of them grew on hate (some f the hate are gustice...) to Israel and America...so if it will be a Democracy in country like Egept...the Riligion will take the gov'...and we Know that it won't be good thing.

[UoUo]

And just to add...after 17 years in my country im very soory to tell you..but i don't trust arabs...and when i turn my back to them i feeling not safe...and you know what? i every right to feel that way.

[Tane Angle]

You have the right to feel anyway you want, no?

To be honest, I don't really trust that many people, Muslim or not. That's natural sometimes, though not always healthy for long periods.

Have a good one, and just some thoughts...

[UoUo]

You have the right to feel anyway you want, no?

To be honest, I don't really trust that many people, Muslim or not. That's natural sometimes, though not always healthy for long periods.

Have a good one, and just some thoughts...

Also true.

[Fintin]

With all do respect...i don't think that you can learn me to live side by side with musilms/arab people....


Yes i think the arab world can change to democracy...but the current generation can't cuz if you like it or not most of them grew on hate (some f the hate are gustice...) to Israel and America...so if it will be a Democracy in country like Egept...the Riligion will take the gov'...and we Know that it won't be good thing.


i dont know if this is going to make sence to you but i feel it might help someone atleast...for about 7 years now i have been working with improverished people...here in detroit...in West Virginia...Denver...and Mexico...i have had more conversations with homeless individuals then i can remember...built or repaired tens of houses...all for free...the reason i said all this is because...from all these experiances...i have learned a few things...

homeless people trust no one...they dont want you to help them...if i expect to get anywhere with them...i have to show them i trust them beyond a doubt...i cant just hand out...i have to reach out...when and only when this is done...am i able to get through to them

it goes the same for anyone really...

when i have gone to roof a house, or put in windows...im entering someones most prized possesion...if i offend this person...i cant do my job...if i put up an attitude...how can i expect to have this person im there to work with not have an attitude...but if i am humble...and leave myself open...then the homeowner will also be open and willing to learn and grow...

i guess what im saying...if you want to trust them...you have to trust them...before they give you a reason to trust them...if you want someone to listen to you...you have to listen to them first


sorry for rambling off topic for the most part...

[el borracho]

Arabs only understand iron fists. Democracy won't work well for them and if it will work than the PM/President will turn into a dictator in no time.

i think thats going a little far...it may be the only thing most have known for ages...literaly...but take into acount the fact that detroit has the highest arab population outside of the middle east...things work go fine...they have adapted to democracy wonderfuly...and many of these arabs are only recent trainsplants
They haven't adopted, they are just not enough to change anything. That's the same reason that they are not uprising in Israel, they are only 20% of the population, they have no chance.
We call them (Israeli arabs) the 5th regiment, because we know that they will uprise when they will feel that they are in advantage.

one thing i have learned so far in life...if you expect someone to react in a certain way...they will...as for saying that arabs in the US havnt adapted to democracy...do you live here...are you neighbors with them...friends with them...they may not have taken on our culture...i dont expect that...no one should...but they charish their freedom...please...dont make negitive remarks about my friends and neighbors
What can I say? Enjoy living in illusions.

Dude, thats borderline racism. I understand things are different in your part of the world, but I also know and work with Arabs on a personal level...I have never seen such generosity and good spirits from Americans, and yes I know that their brethren attack you and your neighbors...but don't make blanket statements that cover all of a certain people.


On a side note...a little Arab "democracy" humor...A good Egyptian friend of mine told me a story about when he was a young teenager in the 80's. It was election day, his dad returned home late from work and the polls had already closed. The next day a couple of secret service looking guys came to the door to thank his dad for voting for Mubarak. He said "Sorry, but I didn't get a chance to vote yesterday." They tell him "Don't worry about it sir, we voted for you. Have a nice day!"

Just something to think about, I guess...

[martinexsquaddie]

backing a Tryrant allows you to reach your short term goals but sooner or later that tryrant folds and you have a long term Foe.
look at iran do you think they woke up one day and thought hey lets hate the USA for no reason :(
at one time my section contained an iranian a ****e and a hungarian :)
fundamentalist muslim isn't actually that popular with the masses look at iran neither is being a puppet state for the usa unfortunatly going from tyranny to liberal democracy nobody seems to know how to do that one :roll:

[GrimReaper]

Dude, thats borderline racism...


Nothing borderline about it buddy, Israel is a racist or more correctly bigoted based country, it’s not fun, it's survival.
Nothing in this way of thinking is any different then what former generations thought about whomever they conceived as danger to them.

I don't deny Arab/Muslims as human beings, I'm sure they "Love their children too" but as a people, as a whole, I perceive them as danger to my existence and to the so-called "Free-world".

Your Arab friends are nice? Generous? Great, go live in Saudi-Arabia or Iran for a couple of years, try to send your daughters or wife to school/work dressed as they do in the US and you will see how generous they are...

Look at how nations get Islamified in history, was it peacefully? I think not.
The power of the sword or the power of the womb
It's the stratagem of Islam, and a very good one indeed.
The palis and arab-Israelies try it here, and will probably succeed, and there is no reason not think it's isn't what Muslims will do in Europe or the US when their numbers increase enough. Islam will always work its way to a national control.
Islam as a primitive, non-evolving, violent religion and the Arab behavioral culture developed by Islam and history, combine together to create one the world's biggest dangers.
Go ask some Arab-Christians in Nazareth or Bethlehem, talk to some Coptics in Egypt for real life experience.

Am I generalizing? Of course I am, and hopefully I will survive longer.

Wears a bullet-proof vest and enters the bunker...

[sgt.pepper]

good post Grimreaper

[il31]

GrimReaper

את צודק 100%

[sgt.pepper]

we should always remember what happend to our friendly relationship with pre Chomeini era Iran.

[Moledet]

GrimReaper, great post.
I just wanna add that they won't succeed, because one day people will get some sense and will move the people that are not loyal to Israel to an arabian country. In other words, wohever won't swear to the flag and won't sing the national anthem will be kicked out.

[Fintin]

to get back on topic...kinda...i was thinking about this last night when i was failing to sleep...the US started as a dictatorship...yeppers...Washington was pritty much elected as king...thanfuly he passed it up and we have out current situation...(thats the short of it)...but would Washington have been a good dictator...i think so...the problem isnt someone having pritty much total control...the problem is putting someone in power that that isnt there to abuse the power...

i know i kinda alrady said this...but i dont think any country being run by a fair and level headed individual...will not nessisarily be our best buddy...but i dont see how they would not be willig to trade and have an amicable relationship with the US and the rest of the west

[GrimReaper]

to get back on topic...

Well, I’m not that great with early American history, so I don't know the entire washington stoy, but I do agree in general.
I personally am a big supporter of a "Benevolent dictator" idea of governing, but unfortunately it's very hard for them to keep their head from bloating with power, and using blood thirsty tactics for survival.
If you don't get corrupted by power yourself and actually use it to better your people, then most likely your opponents slaughter/depose/betray you when they get a chance.
It needs to be a special kind of man, that gets to power with support of the people, but not by unsupported aggression against former rulers, and then he must be a visionary, idealistic, and highly motivated and capable person devoted to the good of his people and not his own.
And the most important thing, to know when leave on his own, the greatest sign of leadership is to be able to let go for the good of your men/people.


Personally other then Julius Caesar I can't think of anyone that answers my criterions, in particular the 20th century ones...

[cut]

Dude, thats borderline racism...


Nothing borderline about it buddy, Israel is a racist or more correctly bigoted based country, it’s not fun, it's survival.
Nothing in this way of thinking is any different then what former generations thought about whomever they conceived as danger to them.

I don't deny Arab/Muslims as human beings, I'm sure they "Love their children too" but as a people, as a whole, I perceive them as danger to my existence and to the so-called "Free-world".

Your Arab friends are nice? Generous? Great, go live in Saudi-Arabia or Iran for a couple of years, try to send your daughters or wife to school/work dressed as they do in the US and you will see how generous they are...

Look at how nations get Islamified in history, was it peacefully? I think not.
The power of the sword or the power of the womb
It's the stratagem of Islam, and a very good one indeed.
The palis and arab-Israelies try it here, and will probably succeed, and there is no reason not think it's isn't what Muslims will do in Europe or the US when their numbers increase enough. Islam will always work its way to a national control.
Islam as a primitive, non-evolving, violent religion and the Arab behavioral culture developed by Islam and history, combine together to create one the world's biggest dangers.
Go ask some Arab-Christians in Nazareth or Bethlehem, talk to some Coptics in Egypt for real life experience.

Am I generalizing? Of course I am, and hopefully I will survive longer.

Wears a bullet-proof vest and enters the bunker...

Fair point, but isn't that the same as the "zionists taking over the world" conspiracy theories put out by some arabs?

Personally, I don't believe "zionists" or the muslims intend to take over the world. But I don't blame either side for believing that, you are after all at war.

[Fintin]

to get back on topic...

Well, I’m not that great with early American history, so I don't know the entire washington stoy, but I do agree in general.
I personally am a big supporter of a "Benevolent dictator" idea of governing, but unfortunately it's very hard for them to keep their head from bloating with power, and using blood thirsty tactics for survival.
If you don't get corrupted by power yourself and actually use it to better your people, then most likely your opponents slaughter/depose/betray you when they get a chance.
It needs to be a special kind of man, that gets to power with support of the people, but not by unsupported aggression against former rulers, and then he must be a visionary, idealistic, and highly motivated and capable person devoted to the good of his people and not his own.
And the most important thing, to know when leave on his own, the greatest sign of leadership is to be able to let go for the good of your men/people.


Personally other then Julius Caesar I can't think of anyone that answers my criterions, in particular the 20th century ones...

what about the spartains...they had three dictators that worked together...the problem is breaking the mold...if someone developed a superior form of government...and the US tried to adopt it...things wouldnt go smoothly...i had an experiance back in highschool..the organization i was involved in had a change in leadership...the changes that were made were technicly improvements...however because it was all done with one broad sweep of an ax...those who had been involved before became disenchanted...myself included and we rebeled....not that we didnt want thing to be better...but it all happend to fast and we didnt understand it...


i think thats the problem...when we..the US has tried to spred democracy...we do it with an ax...not a scalple...you need to transision in steps...if you just start out by smashing the mold that the society is based on your asking for confusion...if you chip of bit by bit you end up with a master peice...

in theory anyform of government can work anywhere...its just that people get used to what they see...we are...as a whole...creatures of habit

[GrimReaper]

Fair point, but isn't that the same as the "zionists taking over the world" conspiracy theories put out by some arabs?

Personally, I don't believe "zionists" or the muslims intend to take over the world. But I don't blame either side for believing that, you are after all at war.


Nope, here’s why:
First of all, the name would be wrong
Whatever you/others think, Zionism means one thing
The return of Jews to their historic homeland of Israel and the building of a Jewish state.
So the theory should be "Jews taking over the world"

If so, I don't want to really bother with fighting this claim but..
Judaism, Jews, Hebrews Israelis exist in one way or another for roughly
three-thusand years, if we can take over the world I think we would have done it by now, don't you think?
I don't think the Asyrians,babyloninans,Persians, Greek, romans,byzantian,Ottoman, French,British, and dozens of others needed such a long time to take over huge chunks of the world, did they?

In the last two-thusand years we were not wanted as Jews anywhere.
We were persecuted and either killed of forced to convert. So we tried to be assimilated. But even when we lost/hid our cultural heritage, we were still being reminded who we really are by kind souls. We tried everything possible for two millennia to no avail, so we invented Zionism, or more correctly rediscovered it. But even then, even now, we have the good souls after us, reminding us on every corner who we are. Although I do have to admit today they use great tactics, and hide everything in a facade of humanism, liberalism and objective judgment, but under it all lays the same little Jew-hater.


So no, I don't think we want the world, but on the other hand please tell us what percentage of the world land and population is Islamic???
And it took them less the fifteen-hundred years to do so. With just a bit of a historic bad luck, you today would have been either born Muslim ,be a persecuted people, or dead...

closes the bunker door, puts a helmet and ducks

[oldsoak]

If only the Moshe had turned right instead of left when he got out of Egypt...we'd all be more tolerant of Israel. Sorry, that was totally cynical of me.
The future of democracy in the region looks good in only one state at present and thats Israel. I dont feel happy about it in the Arab countries largely because I look at what happened in India. India went from maharajas to a democratic state partly due to colonial influence and also due to Indians taking on the democratic ideal. Pakistan was founded as a seperate Muslim state because it felt it diid not belong in a Hindu dominated India. They wanted to be set apart. With the exception of Malaysia, I dont know of any Muslim country that has not had a military coup or violent overthrow of government. This is not being anti muslim, it may be to do cultural fixation with strong leaders and hierachy. The way out is going to be with the creation of a powerful middle class and education to a high standard for the masses, because thats the way you can shape how people think. The west could help by building more schools and universities and providing scholarships and thats my 2p on it.

[cut]

Fair point, but isn't that the same as the "zionists taking over the world" conspiracy theories put out by some arabs?

Personally, I don't believe "zionists" or the muslims intend to take over the world. But I don't blame either side for believing that, you are after all at war.


Nope, here’s why:
First of all, the name would be wrong
Whatever you/others think, Zionism means one thing
The return of Jews to their historic homeland of Israel and the building of a Jewish state.
So the theory should be "Jews taking over the world"

If so, I don't want to really bother with fighting this claim but..
Judaism, Jews, Hebrews Israelis exist in one way or another for roughly
three-thusand years, if we can take over the world I think we would have done it by now, don't you think?
I don't think the Asyrians,babyloninans,Persians, Greek, romans,byzantian,Ottoman, French,British, and dozens of others needed such a long time to take over huge chunks of the world, did they?

In the last two-thusand years we were not wanted as Jews anywhere.
We were persecuted and either killed of forced to convert. So we tried to be assimilated. But even when we lost/hid our cultural heritage, we were still being reminded who we really are by kind souls. We tried everything possible for two millennia to no avail, so we invented Zionism, or more correctly rediscovered it. But even then, even now, we have the good souls after us, reminding us on every corner who we are. Although I do have to admit today they use great tactics, and hide everything in a facade of humanism, liberalism and objective judgment, but under it all lays the same little Jew-hater.


So no, I don't think we want the world, but on the other hand please tell us what percentage of the world land and population is Islamic???
And it took them less the fifteen-hundred years to do so. With just a bit of a historic bad luck, you today would have been either born Muslim ,be a persecuted people, or dead...

closes the bunker door, puts a helmet and ducks

I know, that's why I put the word zionists in inverted commas, I know what zion/zionism means and I did say that I did not share the arab opinions. They see Zionism as an excuse for control part of the land they live in, therefore it is easy for them to extend the idea of zionist aspirations to other area. Many jews, well Israelis in particular, seem to think that muslims are invading Europe and in 15 years time are going to turn europe into another Israel/Palestine conflict. Now in this country some people share that view, and they are the BNP, Nick Griffin the leader of the BNP is quite happy to be to muslims what Hitler was to the Jews.

Now it's understandable for Israelis and Palestinians to think the worst of each other, you are killing each other afterall. But for Israelis to want europeans to see muslims as a threat is asking us to be the same as the nazis.

Just because the american right have a policy of unwaivering support for Israel in recent times, does not mean that the rest are "Jew-haters", there are Jew-haters in far right parties, but you'll find it very rare in moderate parties. Perhaps you are thinking of sharon-haters and people who hate his policies, they are not anti-jewish.

[W(M)D]

there are Jew-haters in far right parties, but you'll find it very rare in moderate parties. ............

That is an untrue comment. Anti-semites are found in ALL political parties (clearly more in the BNP then in moderate political parties). Do not under estimate their presence. However, that is a fact of life that all Jews living outside of Israel have to face in the (democratic only) countries that they live in.

Cut - Very clever way of equating Jews to Nazis in your last reply by saying that there are many Jews who have opinions similar to that of the BNP. How many Jews do you actually know in the UK?

[UoUo]

BTW: the U.S government wanted to cut in half the military aid to Egept because egept do not do enough in the war against terror and by the fact that Egept has no enemies.

In the end the government decided not to cut the aid. :|

[cut]

there are Jew-haters in far right parties, but you'll find it very rare in moderate parties. ............

That is an untrue comment. Anti-semites are found in ALL political parties (clearly more in the BNP then in moderate political parties). Do not under estimate their presence. However, that is a fact of life that all Jews living outside of Israel have to face in the (democratic only) countries that they live in.


The only anti-semitism I have come across is from arabs, but then that is reciprocated by jews, that is totally understandable. But then again unlike a lot of people on this forum I don't count people who strongly disagree with Israeli policy, such as the liberal democrats as being anti-semitic, in the same way that people that disagree with what ZANU-PF and Mugabe are doing are not racist against Blacks.




Cut - Very clever way of equating Jews to Nazis in your last reply by saying that there are many Jews who have opinions similar to that of the BNP. How many Jews do you actually know in the UK?

Don't put words like that into my mouth, you'll get me in trouble with the mods. I did not say that and I don't know how you work that out, but for heavens sake be careful what you accuse me of.

I said israelis have that opinion of muslims because they are at war with muslims, if I was israeli I'd feel the same way, but I'm not so I can't, and no that doesn't mean I support muslims or palestine.

[GrimReaper]

I know, that's why I put the word zionists in inverted commas...

Regarding the muslim thing, I don't hate muslims, I don't hate anyone actually.
I don't really care what happens in europe or the US, I'll just let them figure it out themselves. It's just an attempt to divert the world opinions to things that actually endangers it's safety. Solving the Israeli-Arab conflict won't create peace in the world, it's just anoter varaition of jew-hate, as in the jews create strife, but you'll figure it out sooner or later.

I don't think anyone that's against Israeli policy is a "Jew-hater" (I rather use this term then anti-Semite) but I think that anyone that holds Israel to standards that he doesn't apply to the rest of the world is, underneath all his facade, a Jew-hater.

What is it about Israel? How come every single thing done here is amplified ten-fold, but millions of people being butchered in Africa is ok? N.Korea is supposedly killing tens of thousands of people as anti-regime dissidents, but that’s ok? In Egypt coptics are being persecuted for hundred of years, is Europe outraged? Did anyone invade Jordan when king Hussein slaughtered hundreds of Palestinians in the seventies? Are leftist peace organizations sending watch groups to Syria to watch how the governments killes dissidents?

Don't you find this fixation on Israel weird? I know it's hard to believe but I'm very objective in my judgment of things, I honestly believe the Palestinians had a bad time and bad deal, but mainly because for their mistakes and actions taken by the Arab world to provoke them.
Just because you'r dealt bad cards doesn't mean you have the right for a new set. How come no one ever talks about my historic and even legal rights on thie small piece of land?

I'm sorry, but I believe that Israel is the home and only home of the historic Israeli people, and that the Palestinians should leave. Not because it's fair, because it's the only thing that can peacefully end the conflict. Two peoples of different and even opposing ethnic-religious cultures cannot, ever, live in the same country.
Is it fair? Nope, but it wasn't fair when six millions Jews where robbed of their posseions and homes then killed either. And it wasn't fair when hundred of thousand of Jews worldwide had to leave everything behind when they fled from the Arab world or the USSR.
Life's a bitch.

[cut]

I sympathise with your opinion and I'm not saying that you hate muslims. I think that all semites have a right to live in Israel. But I can see why you and some arabs don't think the other one should be there. Why is that wrong?

Israel is pretty much a democracy, as democratic as any other western state would be in war. But because Israel is one of us (the west) it is only fair that we should expect you to be more fair than the people Israel calls a bunch of terrorists. The likes of Syria and others are criticised for human rights abuses as much as China and North Korea, would you disagree with that?

[GrimReaper]

I sympathise with your opinion and I'm not saying that you hate muslims. I think that all semites have a right to live in Israel. But I can see why you and some arabs don't think the other one should be there. Why is that wrong?

Israel is pretty much a democracy, as democratic as any other western state would be in war. But because Israel is one of us (the west) it is only fair that we should expect you to be more fair than the people Israel calls a bunch of terrorists. The likes of Syria and others are criticised for human rights abuses as much as China and North Korea, would you disagree with that?

All Semites have a right to live in Israel? Well does that means the entire Middle East and Arab world have a right to live in my country? :roll:

A democratic state can only sustain itself in times of war and danger to it's existence by using quasi-totalitarian measures, so no, it's not fair to criticize us.
Did the UK criticize the US in WWII? Why not? Is jailing thousands of people in camps fair? What about the fifties? when tens of thousands were persecuted just because a different political view.
Can a country like France, who brutally killed thousands as part of its fight in terror, lecture the world from the high-moral ground they supposedly hold?
Look, this isn't going anywhere
I'll just wish you good luck in Europe with knowledge that al-qaida finished it's cease fire with Spain, and has most likely three nuclear suitcases on their way to the US.
Good luck.

[cut]

I sympathise with your opinion and I'm not saying that you hate muslims. I think that all semites have a right to live in Israel. But I can see why you and some arabs don't think the other one should be there. Why is that wrong?

Israel is pretty much a democracy, as democratic as any other western state would be in war. But because Israel is one of us (the west) it is only fair that we should expect you to be more fair than the people Israel calls a bunch of terrorists. The likes of Syria and others are criticised for human rights abuses as much as China and North Korea, would you disagree with that?

All Semites have a right to live in Israel? Well does that means the entire Middle East and Arab world have a right to live in my country? :roll:


all I'm saying is arabs should be ethnically cleansed from Israel and the occupied territories. Is that too much to ask?




A democratic state can only sustain itself in times of war and danger to it's existence by using quasi-totalitarian measures, so no, it's not fair to criticize us.
Did the UK criticize the US in WWII? Why not? Is jailing thousands of people in camps fair? What about the fifties? when tens of thousands were persecuted just because a different political view.
Can a country like France, who brutally killed thousands as part of its fight in terror, lecture the world from the high-moral ground they supposedly hold?
Look, this isn't going anywhere
I'll just wish you good luck in Europe with knowledge that al-qaida finished it's cease fire with Spain, and has most likely three nuclear suitcases on their way to the US.
Good luck.

Yes we do and did criticise other countries, just because you weren't born and you don't hear about it because israel only pays attention when we talk about the middle east doesn't mean it didn't happen.

nuclear suitcases provided by Saddam and his WMD?

[GrimReaper]

all I'm saying is arabs should be ethnically cleansed from Israel and the occupied territories. Is that too much to ask?
Din't get if that was sarcasm or not, but nope, it's not to much to ask, ti's the only way to prevent bloodshed.




Yes we do and did criticise other countries, just because you weren't born and you don't hear about it because israel only pays attention when we talk about the middle east doesn't mean it didn't happen.

nuclear suitcases provided by Saddam and his WMD?

Yes , I remember the mass demonstrations against the US in london during WWII :roll:
And no, sadam had no nukes, and WMD were just an excuse.
What i'm talking about comes from a former USSR state.

[cut]

all I'm saying is arabs should be ethnically cleansed from Israel and the occupied territories. Is that too much to ask?
Din't get if that was sarcasm or not, but nope, it's not to much to ask, ti's the only way to prevent bloodshed.




Yes we do and did criticise other countries, just because you weren't born and you don't hear about it because israel only pays attention when we talk about the middle east doesn't mean it didn't happen.

nuclear suitcases provided by Saddam and his WMD?

Yes , I remember the mass demonstrations against the US in london during WWII :roll:
And no, sadam had no nukes, and WMD were just an excuse.
What i'm talking about comes from a former USSR state.

what when the bombs were dropping on our heads?

which former USSR states have nuclear capabilities?

[GrimReaper]

what when the bombs were dropping on our heads?
Exactly, it's easy to be objective,liberal and humanist when you don't have bombs going off around you, but it's hypocrisy doing so when another country is going through the same thing.



which former USSR states have nuclear capabilities?
None on their own, but the stoarge facilities were spread througout the USSR, anyway that would be my last comment on this subject, read some intelligence reports. I forsee a large bang and flash of light in the next eighteen monthes somwhere in the western world.

[cut]

what when the bombs were dropping on our heads?
Exactly, it's easy to be objective,liberal and humanist when you don't have bombs going off around you, but it's hypocrisy doing so when another country is going through the same thing.



which former USSR states have nuclear capabilities?
None on their own, but the stoarge facilities were spread througout the USSR, anyway that would be my last comment on this subject, read some intelligence reports. I forsee a large bang and flash of light in the next eighteen monthes somwhere in the western world.

are you not aware of the extent of the Blitz? Also you don't criticise a country who's coming to help you out of that situation, did israel criticise the US at the time of the 1974 airlift?

great prediction nostradmus, it's funny how israel always predicts the worse for it's allies in the west. I get the impression you want bombs to go off in Europe and the US so that you can say I told you so.

[KB]

Flagg, good topic. Despite your intentions it appears a flame war has erupted.

I think Egypt is a tough situation. The US is in a "lose-lose" scenario.
Mubarak's regime is authortarian and corrupt and the US appears hypocritical supporting it when we claim we are trying to promote democracy in the Middle East. I think without a careful plan for liberalization in the aftermath of Mubarak's death Egypt could go the path of Iran.

I have been reading Bernard Lewis' books and others to try to better understand the mindset of the Arab world: I only spent about 6 mos there in the early '80s so don't claim to be an expert. I always had the impression that the Arab world was like a Potemkin village; on the surface it has the semblance of a modern society, but scratch it gently and the 14th century was alive and well. A Ghandi or MLK figure would have probably accomplished much more for the Palestinian cause than the terrorism approach has, but I suspect the passive nonviolent approach goes against the "macho, eye for an eye" culture Arabs seem to live by. Can you imagine the world reaction if a million Palestinians staged a sit down strike around the West Bank settlements?

[oldsoak]

Unfortunately, we may have to loose the idea that popular movements = democratic and therefore must give rise to good things. If the Nazis were subject to vigorous repression for sufficiently long enough, would they have had the chance to become the nightmare of Europe ? Given time, the memory of the defeat of WW1 and the humiliations suffered as a result may have faded to the point where the Nazis would have just been another crackpot party in Germany and laughed out of existence by the Germans themselves, who knows ? If Mubarak looses his grip, there could arise a popular pan Arab movement in Egypt with a fundamentalist agenda that might make the previous rulers appear the better choice - look what happened in Afghanistan. Democracy is really a game for grown ups, and it took us a long time to get there. From Magna Carta to Universal sufferage took a long time in the UK. The Indian experience may have to be examined to see how modern democracy can be encouraged to develop in areas where there exist strong non-western cultures based on religion.

[GrimmyRX]

all I'm saying is arabs should be ethnically cleansed from Israel and the occupied territories. Is that too much to ask?
Din't get if that was sarcasm or not, but nope, it's not to much to ask, it's the only way to prevent bloodshed.

Holy ****.

Ok, so yes, you have every right to hate the arabs, you guys, are, after all, at war. I get that.

But, my dear boy, you have just advocated genocide. G-E-N-O-C-I-D-E.

You've become no better than those terrorists that want to kill your children and wipe Isreal off the map; become no better than Slovidan Molosovic (or however the hell you spell that guys name); Hell, when it comes RIGHT down to it, the only thing that seperates you from Hitler in that statment you just made is that 1) It's Arabs you wanna kill and 2) you don't actually have the power to do it.

Mods', me thinks that GrimReaper has broken at LEAST one rule here. He deserves SOME kind of warning, if not a partial ban.

[GrimReaper]

When digging up threads for the past, please learn to read and do some research about what you are talking about before throwing **** around.
I do not condone genocide nor even mentioned it since I do not condone bloodshed;
I do condone agreeable population movement. :bash:

[Argyll]

Now do you see what I mean about someone elses's interpretation of the comments you made?

Shalom ;)

[GrimmyRX]

When digging up threads for the past, please learn to read and do some research about what you are talking about before throwing **** around.
I do not condone genocide nor even mentioned it since I do not condone bloodshed;
I do condone agreeable population movement. :bash:

Really? Your statements in the quoted posts do seem to indicate otherwise.

Ie: Cut made a fairly sarcastic statment about ethnicly cleaning Arabs from the Occupied lands, and Isreal proper. You, in turn, agreed with that statement by saying that "it's the only way to prevent bloodshed."

That seems pretty indicative that you DO support bloodshed and Genocide, unless it's against your own country.

[Javehn]

The language barrier is speaking here , most probably . Sence I personally understand Grim as he ment and not as you ;)

In our place it's called "Puting words in someone's else mouth" .

[GrimmyRX]

The language barrier is speaking here , most probably . Sence I personally understand Grim as he ment and not as you ;)

In our place it's called "Puting words in someone's else mouth" .

*shrug* I responded to his post as I understood it. I even read it a couple of times to make sure I was reading it right.

Hey, what can I say? When I see something that is, in my point of view, condoning Genocide and Ethnic Cleaning, I get pissed.

[GrimReaper]

When digging up threads for the past, please learn to read and do some research about what you are talking about before throwing **** around.
I do not condone genocide nor even mentioned it since I do not condone bloodshed;
I do condone agreeable population movement. :bash:

Really? Your statements in the quoted posts do seem to indicate otherwise.

Ie: Cut made a fairly sarcastic statment about ethnicly cleaning Arabs from the Occupied lands, and Isreal proper. You, in turn, agreed with that statement by saying that "it's the only way to prevent bloodshed."

That seems pretty indicative that you DO support bloodshed and Genocide, unless it's against your own country.
No, thats what you understand from it. I sarcasticly replied that if it will be the only way prevent bloodshed, so be it, the term has many meanings.
Intresting that no one "understood" my "true" meaning until the latest flame war.
Feel free to understand what you want.

[GrimmyRX]

Meh, whilst Cut's statement was easily understood as Sarcastic (as his point of view was so markedly different from that particular statement), yours was less easily understood as sarcastic, as your point of view is usually... less seperated from that kind of position.

[DE_Six]

There was an excellent article about the future of democracy in Egypt in the July 12th issue of The New-Yorker.

Here's a link to it:

http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/viewtopic.php?p=423354#423354

[Flagg]

Woop! Woop! Woop!

Necro-thread Alert!

-----------------------

Freedom Riders inspire new generation of Arab protest leaders:

http://edition.cnn.com/2011/US/05/15/freedom.riders.arab/

----------------------

Too bad we couldn't have had a sane debate and discourse about it 7 years ago when we started it.

I miss Tane Angle :(

[Climber]

Good foresight Flagg.

One thing I leaned from this old thread is that it is not easy to be in others people shoes and judgment should be used with responsibility.

[SilentType]

The Nostrodamus of Middle Easter politics.

We know that a democracy can be hostile to other democracies. The NAZIs were put in power through democratic process. The fact that people vote for their leadership is no promise of peace. The people themselves have to see the advantages of stability and peace over conflict. Typically they do, but not always.

Nothing in life is certain.