kkbou
12-02-2009, 03:49 PM
the power of provocation is on show in switzerland and iran
the tactic works even when your opponent knows what you're up to.
there are only four minarets in switzerland: One for every 100,000 muslims in the country. Swiss muslims keep a low profile so as not to excite the numerous people there who hate and fear them.
But the fear is so widespread that a political party can prosper by demanding a referendum on whether further minarets should be banned in switzerland. With luck, the ban will provoke protests and demonstrations by muslims.
There is only one nuclear power station under construction in iran, and there are none that are operational. The fuel for the reactor will be supplied by russia under a contract signed long ago. So when the iranian government orders 10 new uranium enrichment plants for reactors that have not even been designed yet, you may safely assume that iran is trying to provoke an attack.
"provocation" is no longer a fashionable word, but the tactic it describes has never been more popular. The 9/11 attacks on the us, for example, were meant to provoke an invasion of afghanistan.
Even the officials in washington who understood osama bin laden's strategy could not avoid falling into the trap, because american public opinion demanded a prompt military response.
What makes provocation so effective is that it works even when your opponent knows what you are up to. He has to act to retain credibility with his own political clientele.
So let us consider the swiss people's party (svp), which sponsored the referendum at the weekend to ban the construction of new minarets. The svp has become the largest party in the swiss parliament by playing on popular fears that immigrants are taking over the country.
About 20 per cent of the swiss population are foreign residents, attracted there by the country's prosperity, but only about 5 per cent - some 400,000 people - are muslim.
Muslims have nevertheless become the main target for the svp's anti-immigrant propaganda because they inspire more fear than other foreigners. During the referendum, the svp plastered every flat surface in the country with a poster showing a swiss flag covered with six black minarets (which looked remarkably like missiles), and a black-clad muslim woman in full niqab gazing on the scene. Religion, weapons and an oppressed woman who is probably going to produce lots of muslim babies - it had it all.
The svp won 29 per cent of the vote in the previous election, in 2007, which is embarrassing enough for the swiss. It got 57 per cent of the vote in the referendum, so it has clearly found the right button to press. Its ultimate goal, however, is to provoke switzerland's muslims into protesting publicly against its policies. If they can be lured into doing that, the backlash among the swiss could give the svp complete dominance at the next election.
The next election is probably what is driving policy in iran, too. President mahmoud ahmadinejad and the conservative clerical faction with which he is allied lost most of their political credibility during the rigged elections and subsequent street protests earlier this year. They have stabilised the situation by killing dozens of protesters in the streets and jailing and torturing hundreds of others, but that is only a temporary solution.
The only thing that can rebuild popular support for the present government is a foreign attack on iran, which can only come from the us and/or israel. And what would motivate them to do such a thing? Well, we could announce that we are going to build 10 new uranium enrichment plants.
Think about it. Why would iran announce such a thing in advance? Hitherto, it has always kept its nuclear activities secret for as long as possible. Besides, it lacks the resources to build 10 uranium enrichment plants at the same time, or even five. But it knows that the announcement will panic those in israel and the us who obsess about iranian nuclear weapons.
The aim is to provoke an attack on iran. The country is too big for the us or israel to mount a full-scale invasion, so the attacks would just be air strikes. Whatever they destroyed could be repaired after they stop - and they would stop. Iran can shut the gulf to all tanker traffic by using sea-skimming missiles, and the world cannot do without gulf oil for more than a few weeks.
If the us or israel attacked iran, ahmadinejad and the clerics would be in power for another 10 years. That's worth putting up with a few bombs for. The decision has been made in tehran. Now washington has to decide if it is going to fall for the provocation.
1345678910
the tactic works even when your opponent knows what you're up to.
there are only four minarets in switzerland: One for every 100,000 muslims in the country. Swiss muslims keep a low profile so as not to excite the numerous people there who hate and fear them.
But the fear is so widespread that a political party can prosper by demanding a referendum on whether further minarets should be banned in switzerland. With luck, the ban will provoke protests and demonstrations by muslims.
There is only one nuclear power station under construction in iran, and there are none that are operational. The fuel for the reactor will be supplied by russia under a contract signed long ago. So when the iranian government orders 10 new uranium enrichment plants for reactors that have not even been designed yet, you may safely assume that iran is trying to provoke an attack.
"provocation" is no longer a fashionable word, but the tactic it describes has never been more popular. The 9/11 attacks on the us, for example, were meant to provoke an invasion of afghanistan.
Even the officials in washington who understood osama bin laden's strategy could not avoid falling into the trap, because american public opinion demanded a prompt military response.
What makes provocation so effective is that it works even when your opponent knows what you are up to. He has to act to retain credibility with his own political clientele.
So let us consider the swiss people's party (svp), which sponsored the referendum at the weekend to ban the construction of new minarets. The svp has become the largest party in the swiss parliament by playing on popular fears that immigrants are taking over the country.
About 20 per cent of the swiss population are foreign residents, attracted there by the country's prosperity, but only about 5 per cent - some 400,000 people - are muslim.
Muslims have nevertheless become the main target for the svp's anti-immigrant propaganda because they inspire more fear than other foreigners. During the referendum, the svp plastered every flat surface in the country with a poster showing a swiss flag covered with six black minarets (which looked remarkably like missiles), and a black-clad muslim woman in full niqab gazing on the scene. Religion, weapons and an oppressed woman who is probably going to produce lots of muslim babies - it had it all.
The svp won 29 per cent of the vote in the previous election, in 2007, which is embarrassing enough for the swiss. It got 57 per cent of the vote in the referendum, so it has clearly found the right button to press. Its ultimate goal, however, is to provoke switzerland's muslims into protesting publicly against its policies. If they can be lured into doing that, the backlash among the swiss could give the svp complete dominance at the next election.
The next election is probably what is driving policy in iran, too. President mahmoud ahmadinejad and the conservative clerical faction with which he is allied lost most of their political credibility during the rigged elections and subsequent street protests earlier this year. They have stabilised the situation by killing dozens of protesters in the streets and jailing and torturing hundreds of others, but that is only a temporary solution.
The only thing that can rebuild popular support for the present government is a foreign attack on iran, which can only come from the us and/or israel. And what would motivate them to do such a thing? Well, we could announce that we are going to build 10 new uranium enrichment plants.
Think about it. Why would iran announce such a thing in advance? Hitherto, it has always kept its nuclear activities secret for as long as possible. Besides, it lacks the resources to build 10 uranium enrichment plants at the same time, or even five. But it knows that the announcement will panic those in israel and the us who obsess about iranian nuclear weapons.
The aim is to provoke an attack on iran. The country is too big for the us or israel to mount a full-scale invasion, so the attacks would just be air strikes. Whatever they destroyed could be repaired after they stop - and they would stop. Iran can shut the gulf to all tanker traffic by using sea-skimming missiles, and the world cannot do without gulf oil for more than a few weeks.
If the us or israel attacked iran, ahmadinejad and the clerics would be in power for another 10 years. That's worth putting up with a few bombs for. The decision has been made in tehran. Now washington has to decide if it is going to fall for the provocation.
1345678910