U.S. May Lose 824,000 Jobs as Employment Data Revised: Analysis

[CG51]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aNSc0oQ0vb4M&pos=10

[Mr.K]

"The fundamentals of the economy are strong" and "Yes we can!" :)
Nice interactive charts.

[SoftLion]

All Bush's fault. Disagree? Then you hate kitten-shaped angel babies.

[Kilgor]

All Bush's fault. Disagree? Then you hate kitten-shaped angel babies.

Reverse the situation.

If the economic collapse happened under Obama, you'd be the first one to point fingers.

Don't be stupidly partisan. America needs intelligent voters.

[Mr Gently Benevolent]

Maybe who knows figures are not until the 5th

[SoftLion]

Reverse the situation.

If the economic collapse happened under Obama, you'd be the first one to point fingers.

Don't be stupidly partisan. America needs intelligent voters.

You assume a whole bunch there, buckshot. I was waiting for someone to lay the blame somewhere beyond the current big dog. Hook, line, and sinker ring a bell, Mr. "Don't be stupidly partisan"? Oxymoron comes to mind.

[MaNiC]

This is the government's "revised job losses from April 2008 to March 2009".

I don't think it should come as a surprise to anybody if the revised figures (that come out every February) points to the recession having a greater impact on the labor market overall--especially considering the severity of the recession. I would personally be more surprised if they would announce that less jobs were lost or that the original figures would remain unchanged.

[HK in AK]

This revision was telegraphed by the US Treasury back in October. The number they were talking about was a lot larger. You have to look at the old unemployment calculation to get a good glimpse of the total unemployment, which is about 17 percent. It doesn't matter who is in office, you have to look beyond politics and see that Bush, SR, is like Clinton, and Obama is like Bush Jr. I find it funny how much importance some people place on a R or D after a politicians' name. We are in a pickle, folks. We have a lot to consider and not a lot of time to refocus our resources.

[void]

If the unemployment rate was calculated using the same formula/criteria as in the 1930s, the current unemployment rate in the US is pushing towards Great Depression levels.

[Flagg]

This revision was telegraphed by the US Treasury back in October. The number they were talking about was a lot larger. You have to look at the old unemployment calculation to get a good glimpse of the total unemployment, which is about 17 percent. It doesn't matter who is in office, you have to look beyond politics and see that Bush, SR, is like Clinton, and Obama is like Bush Jr. I find it funny how much importance some people place on a R or D after a politicians' name. We are in a pickle, folks. We have a lot to consider and not a lot of time to refocus our resources.

www.shadowstats.com

www.nowandfutures.com

Which old unemployment calculation?

Unfortunately, there's been a couple since the 70's...if the numbers don't add up, change the equation.

[Abolith]

The U3 is crap.. the U6 is a much more accurate number of unemployment.. and around here it's edging at 20%.. and going up :\

[maw]

All Bush's fault. Disagree? Then you hate kitten-shaped angel babies.

why'd you bring bush into this? this has nothing to do with party politics.

[tipsovr]

I'd just like to see ANY numbers released by our government that didn't need vast revisions to be somewhere close to correct. And why are our government "experts" always saying that the numbers were "unexpectedly" higher or lower than their estimates? Shouldn't these experts be a little more on the ball and not have numbers be "unexpected"? Who the hell are our government experts and why are they labeled such?

[Universal_Soldier]

I'd just like to see ANY numbers released by our government that didn't need vast revisions to be somewhere close to correct. And why are our government "experts" always saying that the numbers were "unexpectedly" higher or lower than their estimates? Shouldn't these experts be a little more on the ball and not have numbers be "unexpected"? Who the hell are our government experts and why are they labeled such?

"unexpectedly higher or lower" thing you talk about has nothing to do with government experts. I wonder were you get that.

[HK in AK]

shadowstats is a good site. I haven't checked the latest information, but it will be interesting to see the numbers that he comes out with on March 31.

[SoftLion]

why'd you bring bush into this? this has nothing to do with party politics.

I had assumed, apparently wrongly, that referring to "kitten shaped angel babies" was a pretty strong indicator of sarcasm.

OT, Unemployment is near record levels, more jobs are projected to be lost, the economy is still taking a dump, and I don't see an end in sight. That is not partisan, that is the truth. Your take?

[Byrdalak]

Trying to pin this on a certain president or party is a nonsensical waste of time. The whole of America, even us citizens can all be blamed for it. Many of us spent far beyond our means, running up huge debts on credit cards for example. We allowed corporations to ship whole companies overseas and to Mexico and gave them tax breaks for doing it. The list goes on and on and on. In my opinion WE THE PEOPLE of America got lazy and trusted the wrong people to run things for us. I feel strongly that American citizens dropped the ball. I don't have all the answers, I don't even have the facts but I think I am pretty close to the mark. I think this cartoon should tell us the first thing we should do after we wake up. I will say again, this is just my opinion.

[Nano]

The numbers are no that bad guys it could be worse like say a few more unemployed crooks/scammers otherwise known as bankers/mortgage lenders. It could have been real bad people the people who ****ed it all up could have not gotten any multi-million dollar bonuses and Ferrari or Lamborghini could have been in real trouble.According to the head of Goldman Sachs they are doing "God's work" so calm down as long as Goldman Sachs can near instantly turn itself into a bank to get bailed out it is all good.

[tipsovr]

"unexpectedly higher or lower" thing you talk about has nothing to do with government experts. I wonder were you get that.


Sorry. I guess my sarcasm didn't come through very well on that. I would disagree with you about the 'government experts" part. The GAO, Dept. of Labor, etc all have forecasters who produce numbers. Lately they have been a wee bit off.

[Nano]

Trying to pin this on a certain president or party is a nonsensical waste of time. The whole of America, even us citizens can all be blamed for it. Many of us spent far beyond our means, running up huge debts on credit cards for example. We allowed corporations to ship whole companies overseas and to Mexico and gave them tax breaks for doing it. The list goes on and on and on. In my opinion WE THE PEOPLE of America got lazy and trusted the wrong people to run things for us. I feel strongly that American citizens dropped the ball. I don't have all the answers, I don't even have the facts but I think I am pretty close to the mark. I think this cartoon should tell us the first thing we should do after we wake up. I will say again, this is just my opinion.
Yeah agreed we have been dropping the ball for many decades now, but it is always true regardless of country the people get the government they have earned not the government they want. We want an honest government, but have never elected very many honest people when they do run. A corrupt country is usually as a result of a generally corrupt society it holds true everywhere. We elect the people who promise to give us some freebies on the backs of someone else. Social Security should be renamed social insecurity because it does nothing to promote personal independence which is the only real security anyone can actually have in this world not to mention all the other overtaxing and overbearing tax programs. We have nickel and dimed the crap out of the middle class turning it into the working class in all, but name. All is good as long as the one party of the flavor of the day is in power.

[Nano]

Oh yeah everyone the **** is about to hit the fan real soon much sooner than many "expected" to take a note from our statistical gurus. lol

P.S. I resolved an issue of getting my wages garnished"unpaid California taxes to the sum of some $4,200" and I came up with the simply yet probably accurate conclusion. The state of California is issuing shotgun wage garnishment orders to employers if you have once not reported taxes. I did not report taxes that particular year for the simply reason of A.not having a job B. not making enough from benefits to be legally required to report any. C.The benefits are not taxable income. Make sure if you for any reason whatsoever have not reported taxes and live in the soon to be bankrupt/bailed-out states that you get your **** together just in case. I expect Auntie IRS is probably doing the same working its way top to bottom. The state of California apparently decided to start bottom-up. figures

[Hollis]

I had assumed, apparently wrongly, that referring to "kitten shaped angel babies" was a pretty strong indicator of sarcasm.

OT, Unemployment is near record levels, more jobs are projected to be lost, the economy is still taking a dump, and I don't see an end in sight. That is not partisan, that is the truth. Your take?

Having been through several recession, one worse that this one, I am not getting excited about it. The one in '79 was much worse. Housing loans went to over 20+%. There are natural cycles to the economy one just does not know, how long they will last or how far they will go up or down. Watching the Dow helps. This is all long term in the consumer mind. Most people sort of live pay day to pay day, many industries operate years in advance. From R&D, mechandising to determine future orders, to production and final distribution to merchants can take years.

One aspect of Reagan that is positive, he talked on a positive note, not doom and gloom when it came to the economy. The economie is approxiamately 75% consumer based. When the president and other leaders bad mouth the economy, predicting a collapse worse than the 30's depression guess what happens to consumers? The stop spending. That 75% of the economy that is effected by them takes a big dump. Consumer attitude has a big effect on the economy. A light recession can turn to a better one or worse one depending on consumer reactions.

[SoftLion]

Having been through several recession, one worse that this one, I am not getting excited about it. The one in '79 was much worse. Housing loans went to over 20+%. There are natural cycles to the economy one just does not know, how long they will last or how far they will go up or down. Watching the Dow helps. This is all long term in the consumer mind. Most people sort of live pay day to pay day, many industries operate years in advance. From R&D, mechandising to determine future orders, to production and final distribution to merchants can take years.

One aspect of Reagan that is positive, he talked on a positive note, not doom and gloom when it came to the economy. The economie is approxiamately 75% consumer based. When the president and other leaders bad mouth the economy, predicting a collapse worse than the 30's depression guess what happens to consumers? The stop spending. That 75% of the economy that is effected by them takes a big dump. Consumer attitude has a big effect on the economy. A light recession can turn to a better one or worse one depending on consumer reactions.

I don't disagree with that Hollis. However, as you mentioned, we have a consumer-based economy. Gloom and Doom and consumer attitude are certainly discretionary factors. Unemployment, however, precludes that entire population segment (currently 10% + nationally, and depending on the state and region, 25-30%+) from contributing to the economy. This rampant and still unchecked unemployment expansion is a concern to me.

I want the Fed to do whatever it takes to both stop job loss and spur job creation. I was not enamored with Bush or Obama's "shovel ready" TARP half-truth, which at best created temporary jobs. I want tax cuts for small and big business (yes, the owners of which likely make over $250,000) and other measures to stop layoffs. I am totally against raising taxes in this recession as an increase in taxes during a recession takes money out of somone's hands that could be consuming the products of the businesses that retained employees due to helpful tax cuts, who can increase revenue and hire more people, etc.

And that isn't touching on future inflation, the effects of a potential terrorist attack, the (de)valuation of the dollar against other currencies, and a number of other problems.

My $.01

[Mackie]

One aspect of Reagan that is positive, he talked on a positive note, not doom and gloom when it came to the economy. The economie is approxiamately 75% consumer based. When the president and other leaders bad mouth the economy, predicting a collapse worse than the 30's depression guess what happens to consumers? The stop spending. That 75% of the economy that is effected by them takes a big dump. Consumer attitude has a big effect on the economy. A light recession can turn to a better one or worse one depending on consumer reactions.

Agree.
Recently the public saving rate recovers from a incredible low level. From ~1% to ~4% now.
I don't expect higher rates than 5% since countries with a more conservative population in financial products or spending have rates about 6%.

[HellToupee]

Negative outlook is so people support the attempted solutions, as it was it was not just a slowdown but a possible systemic collapse, comsumer confidence wouldn't help a failed economic backbone, and you couldn't push for big chances while saying all is well.

[HK in AK]

All you have to do is watch the numbers......................

http://www.usdebtclock.org/