North Korean invasion of the South. First 24 hours.

[Russian_dude]

Here's how I see it happening.

0400 - all the serviceable transport palnes, infiltration craft and helos are dispatched loaded with commandoes over the DMZ. NK agents in the South are activated with predetrmined goals and plans. Light infantry units take position in the invasion tunnels under the DMZ. "Dear Leader" and high command take place in nuke-proof bunkers in the mountains.

Result. - Lack of training means that vast majority of surviving (the flight over DMZ airdefences) commandoes are dispersed all over the palce, including NK itself and instead of attacking pre-assigned targets, they go for tragets of opportunity. Small numbers of agents in the South fail to cause serious disruption as many have turned double agent while in South Korea.

0430 - code word is given. 70% of NK ballistic missile stock is launched at SK airfields, road junctions, bases, Seoul and US bases in the region. NK artillery opens up along the whole front. NK Navy begins it's unconventional attacks with midget subs and torpedo boats. NK airforce takes off en mass for one-way missions (including a few suicide ramming ones.) as it knows that it will be destroyed within 12 hours anyways and go for a hail mary. Light troops exit invasion tunnels 1-2 kilometers behind the DMZ and begin to assemble.

Result. - The impresise missiles fail to close SK airfields or disrupt road movement, they cause massive panic but few casualties in Seoul, roads are clogged with fleeing people. US bases are hit with a few missiles that were not intecepted but US personel has time to shelter and damage is slight and material only. NK artillery pounds the DMZ but SK and US troops are well entrenched and protected and suffer few casualties. NK airforce ceases to exist and except in a few cases fails to do damage. Untrained pilots drop their unguided ordanance all over the place.

0500 - SK/American counter response, artillery, cruise missiles, aircraft are taking off, general, mobilisation of reserves, US carriers hurry to the theater. US long range bombers take of with bunker busters. SK declares martial law and total mobilization of reserves. NK troops enter the DMZ with engineer troops, clear minefields (including using prisoners) and begin building ramps over the "Korean wall"

Result - due to SK fire, ramps are slow to be built and in the first 6 hours next to no NK vehicle makes it into the South. Concentrations of NK tank troops heading south are blasted at crossroads creating huge bottlenecks. NK Strategic targets, communication nodes, fuel depots and artillery concentrations are heavily hit. Seoul receives some sporadic artillery fire from the few artillery tubes that can reach it. NK artillery fire is heavy but innacurate.

0530 - 1000 NK waves of infantry begin to attack the DMZ.

Result - DMZ is breached almost everywhere except the "forts" but first line NK infantry is disorganized and bled dry. Tunnel infiltration troops are reduced after attempting to storm heavily defended objectives. Lack of training and heavy weapons. First armored SK units begin to engage the enemy. Airstrikes begin to pound NK non-stop. All landlines in the North are cut, electricity is cut, strategic tagets destroyed.

1000-1500 - Masses of NK armor and infantry begin to pour from the DMZ South.

Result - SK troops close to the DMZ are pushed aside through sheer weight of numbers but NK Army is geting increasingly disorganized, roads are clogged with 100's of destroyed vehicles and advance is very slow. NK surface Navy is almost completely wiped out.

1500-2000 - NK continues it's advance South. Large coherent SK units begin to set up a second defensive line on the outskirts of Seoul and 20-30kms behind the DMZ.

Result - NK artillery fire intensity is falling. Counter battery fire and lack of ammo. The fighting begins to shift out of their range.

2000-2400 - NK troops are bogged down with sight of the Seoul outskirts and begin to clash with second line SK units.

Result - tactical indecision by inexperienced NK officers. NK population completely cutt off from Goverment control. Chaos begins to spread to some areas and at the border, mass flight to China.

[Dispatcher]

Kim Jong Ill is gonna be so pissed at you for this. Your lack of faith is disturbing!


Order this book, Larry Bond allready did the work for you;

http://www.amazon.com/Red-Phoenix-Larry-Bond/dp/0446359688

[broncobob1]

Where does the part about a failing NK regime using a low yield nuclear weapon on the battlefield come in?

[cavsalute]

China got involved last time. I think it would be a safe bet that they would if it happend again.

[wotsnext]

Is a suprise attack really possible? do all the SK intel people walk round with there heads up their ass?

[AlexMartin2]

IMHO, from military point of view, such scenario is very weak. A few points:
1) Full scale attack need preparation. With comprehensive tools (like UAVs and satellites) and good intel, SK command will be aware of coming NK attack at least a week before. Remember, NK army is million men strong, moving such huge forces into position takes time. Moving arti into positions takes a lot of time, and perfectly seen from above.
So, there are two possibilities: SK&US forces makes preemptive strike, so we switch to completely different scenario. Or SK forces in full alert (with mobilization started already) awaits NK's first strike, and after that makes its own strike immediately.

2) Standard military tactic: use bombs and artillery first, then attack with land forces. Infiltration forces as commandos and ninjas should not go first.

3) NK arti is very numerous and will be very effective and devastating. It is stupid to assume that if they dont have millimeter precision, they cant do anything. WW2 tactics works well, ALWAYS.

4) If we assume that SK command was unaware of NK attack, than starting retaliatory strikes with an hour after initial attack absolutely unrealistic. Its 5 am if I understood correctly, people are sleeping.
Maybe after 8-12 hours there will be serious resisting, but not earlier.

5) If NK armor and personnel with big numbers (lets say 300k) started to invade, they could be stopped, I'd say, after a week or so of heavy and costly fighting. After a 24 hours? No way?

And BTW, how do we know that chain of command in NK army is bad? They all may be inexperienced, but they could follow orders quite well and advance very far, even under air strikes.

[madjack]

Light infantry units in the forward corps have been increased in size. The divisional battalions are now regiments. Corps-level brigades are now divisions. This is traditionally an indicator of attack, but it is DPRK/Fantasyland so who knows? They could be there to prevent desertion from conventional formations. For my money it's that AND that they anticipate massive losses among those units as they atempt to beat the ROKs into critical positions, attack specific target sets, etc.
The forward light units and reconnaissance forces, having been built up in size, could conceivably seize and hold ground until the heavy units and regular infantry - what survives the trip south anyway - arrive to reinforce. Maybe Kim and the gang think that's enough to gain leverage in a negotiated settlement.

[Niall]

Or they could suprise everyone and do a good job and finish the war. Afterall this is all just speculation.

[LineDoggie]

Kim Jong Ill is gonna be so pissed at you for this. Your lack of faith is disturbing!


Order this book, Larry Bond allready did the work for you;

http://www.amazon.com/Red-Phoenix-Larry-Bond/dp/0446359688
I read that book when it first came out, interesting alternate history.

[Russian_dude]

IMHO, from military point of view, such scenario is very weak. A few points:
1) Full scale attack need preparation. With comprehensive tools (like UAVs and satellites) and good intel, SK command will be aware of coming NK attack at least a week before. Remember, NK army is million men strong, moving such huge forces into position takes time. Moving arti into positions takes a lot of time, and perfectly seen from above.
So, there are two possibilities: SK&US forces makes preemptive strike, so we switch to completely different scenario. Or SK forces in full alert (with mobilization started already) awaits NK's first strike, and after that makes its own strike immediately.

2) Standard military tactic: use bombs and artillery first, then attack with land forces. Infiltration forces as commandos and ninjas should not go first.

3) NK arti is very numerous and will be very effective and devastating. It is stupid to assume that if they dont have millimeter precision, they cant do anything. WW2 tactics works well, ALWAYS.

4) If we assume that SK command was unaware of NK attack, than starting retaliatory strikes with an hour after initial attack absolutely unrealistic. Its 5 am if I understood correctly, people are sleeping.
Maybe after 8-12 hours there will be serious resisting, but not earlier.

5) If NK armor and personnel with big numbers (lets say 300k) started to invade, they could be stopped, I'd say, after a week or so of heavy and costly fighting. After a 24 hours? No way?

And BTW, how do we know that chain of command in NK army is bad? They all may be inexperienced, but they could follow orders quite well and advance very far, even under air strikes.

I never said SK was caught completely by surprise.

Bombs and artillery will alert the defendants. D-Day, paras were dropped before the fireworks.

WW1 arty was even heavier and even more devastating. Entrenched troops survived it no problem.

I didn't say they were completely stopped. By end of the day they begin to engage main SK units and approach Seoul where they bog down due to area becoming urbanized.

[Russian_dude]

People, feel free to post your scenarios.

[IDF_TANKER]

I can only admire, people, your cheerful enthusiasm, with which you are contemplating a possibility of events which may result in death of hundreds of thousands or millions, nuclear war and global chaos.

[deagle]

nukes for the win , or loss

[Spezz]

I can only admire, people, your cheerful enthusiasm, with which you are contemplating a possibility of events which may result in death of hundreds of thousands or millions, nuclear war and global chaos.
I blame Michael Bay.

[retaxis]

I never said SK was caught completely by surprise.

Bombs and artillery will alert the defendants. D-Day, paras were dropped before the fireworks.

WW1 arty was even heavier and even more devastating. Entrenched troops survived it no problem.

I didn't say they were completely stopped. By end of the day they begin to engage main SK units and approach Seoul where they bog down due to area becoming urbanized.

correct me if i am wrong but south korea is only few kilometres from the border and is not bunkered down tight like israel. Under fire, riot, looting, mayhem and of course suicide one way air trips and heavy artillary bombardments a hell of a lot more than 'few casualties' is going to result.

Lets look at it in another perspective quickly. Say Seoul and surrounding cities with population roughly around 20+ million and you were a south korean soldier. Would you just join up and go to the front lines and fight or would a huge part of you want to run to seoul (or surrounding cities) to protect your family from the mayhem and destruction? I bet at least 50-60% of south korean soldiers will turn and run to protect their families and livelihood. South Korea got a hell of a lot more to lose and the greater you are, the greater the fall.

[80 EAN]

Lets look at it in another perspective quickly. Say Seoul and surrounding cities with population roughly around 20+ million and you were a south korean soldier. Would you just join up and go to the front lines and fight or would a huge part of you want to run to seoul (or surrounding cities) to protect your family from the mayhem and destruction? I bet at least 50-60% of south korean soldiers will turn and run to protect their families and livelihood. South Korea got a hell of a lot more to lose and the greater you are, the greater the fall.

SK Army is well trained and equipped, I highly doubt your sayings....

[Kaapeli]

Lets look at it in another perspective quickly. Say Seoul and surrounding cities with population roughly around 20+ million and you were a south korean soldier. Would you just join up and go to the front lines and fight or would a huge part of you want to run to seoul (or surrounding cities) to protect your family from the mayhem and destruction? I bet at least 50-60% of south korean soldiers will turn and run to protect their families and livelihood. South Korea got a hell of a lot more to lose and the greater you are, the greater the fall.

If I were a Korean soldiers I'd know that the only way to protect my family is to stop the enemy right there and then before they reach my family.
You're not going to protect your family by running away and letting NK advance into Seoul.

Soldiers become even more determined to fight and less likely to run away when their homes are in danger.

[retaxis]

SK Army is well trained and equipped, I highly doubt your sayings....

NK artillary can erase a quick 200k+ off the map not including nuclear weapons. The numbers of course could be considerably more. The mayhem, fire, smoke, destruction, lack of food/water, rioting etc will do the rest. I am sure any soldier would put the lives of their family before everything else. In this situation, when a few soldiers decide to leave, it creates a domino effect and more and more soldiers will just say 'screw it' and leave as well. Of course over time they will get their sh1t together but massive damage and loss of life is inevitable especially in the early stages of the war.

[retaxis]

If I were a Korean soldiers I'd know that the only way to protect my family is to stop the enemy right there and then before they reach my family.
You're not going to protect your family by running away and letting NK advance into Seoul.

Soldiers become even more determined to fight and less likely to run away when their homes are in danger.

Its not the North Koreans you need to worry about.

Metro seoul alone has a population of around 24million not including incheon, suwon and seongnam. 30+million people in a tight little area with little food, water, artillary shells exploding, no law & order and everything burning around them. Roads would be either congested or destroyed. It will be good old survival of the fittest between South koreans. Oh yeah, add the impending march of the North Koreans onto Seoul and you got a real headache for the average citizen.

[ting]

Remember that the Government, Army and probably soldiers have trained for this event. It has happened before, and I very much doubt they are not prepared for the NKs to try something similar again. Seeing droves of SK soldiers running home to pickup and evacuate their family is extremely unlikely. 1. The roads will be strictly controlled by MPs and Police. 2. Soldiers don't just up and run out on their buddies like that.

[the_Wicked]

NK artillary can erase a quick 200k+ off the map not including nuclear weapons. The numbers of course could be considerably more. The mayhem, fire, smoke, destruction, lack of food/water, rioting etc will do the rest. I am sure any soldier would put the lives of their family before everything else. In this situation, when a few soldiers decide to leave, it creates a domino effect and more and more soldiers will just say 'screw it' and leave as well. Of course over time they will get their sh1t together but massive damage and loss of life is inevitable especially in the early stages of the war.

This is all fantastic baseless speculation. You pretty much made up a scenario. No reason to believe your specific scenario would come true and not the one in the OP.

[BearInBunnySuit]

--Seoul is about 50 miles from the DMZ, a distance that can be covered in under an hour by car.

--There are 27 bridges spanning the Han River which bisects the capital. I don't know if it's still in the plans but a long time ago, one of the first things the ROK was going to do in the event of a Nork invasion is to bomb the bridges to slow down the progress of N. Korean forces. But this also means that civilians caught on the northern side will be stranded.

[zad]

If I were a Korean soldiers I'd know that the only way to protect my family is to stop the enemy right there and then before they reach my family.
You're not going to protect your family by running away and letting NK advance into Seoul.

Soldiers become even more determined to fight and less likely to run away when their homes are in danger.
Kaapeli made a valid point. I think we can expect SK soldiers in the DMZ to willingly fight until the last man as contention detachments. With their families behind SK soldiers will surely die on the spot than allow North Koreans to advance an inch towards Seul, they will cling to the terrain as soviets did in Stalingrand.

[Boxed_Wine]

I think you underestimate the missiles, they'd be able to take out the airfields at the very least. They wouldn't do that much damage to small installations but large military bases would take a pounding. They also have the relatively accurate Tochka missile which could target specific targets like power stations.

Not to mention anti-ship cruise missiles that they have converted into land attack cruise missiles.

All in all, it would be preposterous for both nations.

[skyeye]

Lets look at it in another perspective quickly. Say Seoul and surrounding cities with population roughly around 20+ million and you were a south korean soldier. Would you just join up and go to the front lines and fight or would a huge part of you want to run to seoul (or surrounding cities) to protect your family from the mayhem and destruction? I bet at least 50-60% of south korean soldiers will turn and run to protect their families and livelihood. South Korea got a hell of a lot more to lose and the greater you are, the greater the fall.

It’s more likely Nork soldiers would take advantage of being in the South and surrendering en masse.

[Wildgoose]

ROK-US for the win, hands down. Unless of course.....Godzilla.....

[baboon6]

It’s more likely Nork soldiers would take advantage of being in the South and surrendering en masse.

Exactly, this is the most likely outcome. Which is why an invasion by the Norks is extremely unlikely.

[KoTeMoRe]

I can only admire, people, your cheerful enthusiasm, with which you are contemplating a possibility of events which may result in death of hundreds of thousands or millions, nuclear war and global chaos.


Yo Ali J, I still got a full bucket of poop corn, why ruin the fun p-).

Wildgoose, you meant China?

[SoSo]

I would imagine the South Korean soldiers would fight with great ferocity, since they know what fate awaits them if they are overrun. Presumably, as soon as the North Koreans occupied a city or captured some soldiers, the prisoners, if not immediately executed, would be sent to the northernmost part of the DPRK, near the Chinese border, for indoctrination, and to be used as slave labor, and who knows if any of them would ever see their homes again, even if South Korea survived the war.
As far as the North Koreans, disaffected conscripts would be at least as afraid of their own Political Security Bureau as of the South Koreans. For, what if they switched sides or surrendered to the South Koreans, only to be recaptured by the North when those South Koreans were themselves overwhelmed? The fate of the Vietcong "hoi chanh vien" defectors who were recaptured by the PAVN after South Vietnam collapsed in 1975 might be in their minds. But as the tide began to turn, and the outcome appeared less certain, with their expected Chinese allies nowhere to be seen and rumors of unrest and mass emigration in the North, more of the North Koreans might become willing to give themselves up.

[BloodyTalon]

First off I think that even now the chance of North Korea invading is slim to none. Kim Jong Il may be a megalomaniac, but he isn't stupid; he knows his country will never be able to win and he's not going to pull a suicidal last stand that risks tarnishing his image in his country. That said, assuming the North Korean leadership all decide that's its better to be executed in Heaven than reign in Hell, here's what I think a hypothetical invasion will play out.


PHASE 1 - THE PREPARATION

AlexMartin is right that if the DPRK starts moving forces towards the DMZ in preparation for an invasion, people are gonna notice. The government might attempt to cover this up as a routine exercise, but South Korea and the US will take this as evidence that something big is about to happen and plan accordingly. Furthermore, there's likely going to be incidences of small skirmishes and firefights as the North Koreans attempt to probe the DMZ for any weakspots.

Once its suspected that North Korea is likely to invade, South Korea and America will immediately start ratcheting up defenses in anticipation. Aside from moving more personnel and equipment to the DMZ. They will also set up at least two secondary defensive positions behind the DMZ in anticipation for if/when the DPRK breaks through. Of course by defensive positions I'm mean they'll conduct heavy countermobility operations (planting landmines, destroying roads, setting up heavy TRPs, etc.) to bottleneck the invading force so they can greatly limit and destroy its ability to fight. The US will mobilize their forces in Japan, Guam, etc. to support the defenses in Korea and will send at the very least one CBG to the region. Japan might provide additional naval and air support if feel they might be vulnerable to any attacks. Finally, the Korean government will be evacuated from Seoul and moved to a secure location. More citizens may be evacuated to the southernmost part of the country as well if they haven't already left.

North Korean isn't going to place all of its chips into the invading forcel; the bulk of their military will obviously be used for the invasion but a sizable reserve/defensive force will be left in the cities to fight any counterattacks. Preparing the invasion force is going to be a big numbers and time game for North Korea; if they attack too early, they won't have enough power to make any major gains. If they wait too long to prepare, South Korea would be too fortified.

PHASE 2 - THE INVASION

North Korea will attack South Korea en masse. Rather than attempting bum rush the entire DMZ, they will focus on areas that they deem will be the less difficult to penetrate and will then attempt to outflank the defenders. Meanwhile, heavy artillery and missile bombardment campaign will commence on SK & US positions as well as Seoul while NK attempts to deploy special forces deep within the country to harass the other defensive positions and supply lines. If the North Koreans so much as tip over an out house in an American FOB, it's going to be spung by their government as Glorious People's Army liberating greater Korea from the oppressive grip of the American Imperialists and their Capitalist lackeys. The South Koreans are not gonna buy the bull****. Its more likely the North Koreans will buy into it if that's the only news their hearing but as far as we know they might also be disillusioned with state propaganda.

The reality is that the invasion will quickly go from bad to worse for the North Koreans. They are, after all, charging headfirst into a better trained, better equipped force that is going to be relentless in their defense of their homeland and families and will be backed by the largest military superpower on Earth. They might be able to overrun the DMZ on the basis of sheer numbers, but they will suffer devastating casualties as a result will find themselves at a greater disadvantage once they run into the next lines of defense. Their air and naval assets will likely be overran quickly by the superior SK and especially US opponents, which turn could lead to the neutralization of their heavier assets. Finally add in the potential for any North Korean units choosing to defect, and its highly doubtful that the invasion force will make it past Seoul before collapsing and retreating back to the North with their tails between their legs.

PHASE 3 - THE COUNTERATTACK AND RESOLUTION

After the invasion, South Korea, the US, and any allies that have joined the fray will regroup and advance to retake the DMZ, mopping up any straggling North Koreans. Once secured, they will conduct retaliatory attacks on North Korea with the intent of destroy any remaining military capability they have. This will include a blockade, a heavy bombing campaign, and possibly an invasion of North Korea with the intent of moving the DMZ closer to Pyongyang. The counterattack, especially any ground offenses, will be very difficult; if the North Korean propaganda machine has been successful in convincing the population that the West is a horde of inhumane rapists and mass murderers, they're going to fight back just as viciously as their southern counterparts, expect without any of the tactical and strategic advantages.

There will be no serious attempt to take North Korea and overthrow Kim Jong Il. South Korea will be extremely hesitant on draining their economy to prop up their dying neighbor, especially in the wake of a devastating war. Instead, South Korea and the US will force North Korea to sue for peace or another cease fire, resulting in a victory for the south and a crushing defeat for the north. Throughout this period, I believe China will end up becoming the largest proponent for an immediate end to hostilities. The war will put China in a catch-22; they cannot provide military support to North Korea like in the past because doing puts them at risk of losing all of their economic and political clout (not to mention potentially start World War 3) all for a weak, backwards puppet. On the flip side, if they do nothing the risk looking unreliable when it comes to aiding countries that are allied with them. Thus, its likely that China will make a blanket condemnation of the violence and then push for quick cease fire with no strings attached. Whether their veiled attempts at saving North Korea diplomatically will work depends on whether the rest of the security council is willing to reinstate talks.

The war is going to be extremely devastating, pure and simple. It would be a miracle if casualties didn't end up mounting in the 100,000s. Seoul and the northern part of SK will likely be wrecked by the fighting and recovery will have a long negative impact on the Korean economy. The displacement of civilians could also lead to the long term growth of other cities if the Koreans choose to stay rather than go back to the ruined Seoul. As for North Korea, anything other than victory or a return to the status quo will be seen as a catastrophic defeat. Infighting may occur within the government until either enough scapegoats are killed or it collapses altogether.

[SBL]

Best case scenario:

-Mass civilian casualties in Seoul, its suburbs, and points north due to artillery/chemical bombardment.

-KPA drive south slowed by poor logistics, anti-tank barriers, air-strikes and so on, subsequently pinned-down and destroyed a la highway of death in the mountainous approaches.

-USAF/ROKAF enact round-the-clock strikes against all DPRK infrastructure and military installations, ground forces visibly and deliberately gear up for drive on Pyongyang.

-Opportunists within KPA and/or KWP depose Kim, sue for peace, and agree to have him (and selected others) handed over to ROK for trial.

-US/ROK "urge" new ruling junta to allow for UN assistance/stabilization and enact sweeping reforms in exchange for relative immunity, retained status.

-North eventually united with south by referendum after years of development under UN/ROK auspices.

[Gerry301]

South Korea is on the border with North Korea, not a few kilometers away. And yes, it is very heavily guarded by both the US and SK forces. The few (and I mean less than 20) artillory pieces that are able to reach Seoul would be engaged within the hour. Their locations in the mountains are known and heavily targeted in advance. Sorry to burst your bubble but with all of NKs artillory, only a small amount can reach Seoul.

The South Korean troops are 1st rate and would hold much better than the Norks attacking them. They are better trained, better disciplined and have much better equipment to hold defensive lines that have been heavily fortified over the years. I would bet 50-60% of North Korean soldiers would head to the nearest noodle shop once across the border while 99.9% of South Korean troops kick butt. Cluster bombs, GPS guided shells, Attack Helocopters, massive air attacks, would quickly destroy and decimate any attack from North Korea.

Roadways, blocking positions, and every piece of ground between the DMZ and South Korea is, or would be heavily defended.

Troop movements in the North are carefully watched and any build up that would have to take place would be well known up to a week in advance.

Would it be bloody? Absolutely, as it would be an all or nothing effort from both sides in a very small distance over a short period of time. The result would be the end for North Korea.

[HollywoodMarine]

I bet at least 50-60% of south korean soldiers will turn and run to protect their families and livelihood.

That is an indication that you've never been to Korea, nor served along side ROK troops. Don't under estimate them... they are some badass moefoes.

[Kadrun]

People often forget that same amount of artillery is pointing at North Korean artillery sites as North Korean artillery is pointing at south.
Guess who's gonna make a first shot when a war is very close.
South Korea does not have branch called Army, instead they have branch called Artillery :)

[SoSo]

SBL, you disappoint me! You've laid out a best case scenario, but how about giving us a worst case scenario as well? One that is as plausible as the best case scenario you described.

[BlackFlag]

Pseudo Tom Clancy version:

DPRK detonate nuke in Pyongyang, claiming US tactical nuke strike. Vowing full retaliation.

China buys it, joins DPRK in the invasion of ROK.

Seoul shelled to smithereens.

DPRK and the Chinese PLA advance.

Jack Ryan deployed to Osan airbase, along with John Clark, and Ding Chavez.

Clark, Chavez, and Ryan (hesitantly, of course), are HAHO dropped into North Korea to gain evidence to expose DPRK's false flag attack.

Neck snapping, and hilarity ensue..

3-4 Chapters of extremely detailed accounts of US forces doing extremely awesome sh*t. ROK forces are portrayed as retreating sisseys.

????

Jack Ryan provides proof of Kim Jong Il's treachery moments before B-2 Bombers glass Beijing.

China pulls out, gives US "green light" to muck up the DPRK.

Kim Jong Il gets snuffed out by an AIM-120 from an F-22 while trying to flee from his secret runway hidden in the cliffs of Eastern North Korea.

US forces ride through NK, being greeted by ecstatic North Koreans.

Peace accord signed, Korea is reunited.

[BloodyTalon]

Pseudo Tom Clancy version:

DPRK detonate nuke in Pyongyang, claiming US tactical nuke strike. Vowing full retaliation.

China buys it, joins DPRK in the invasion of ROK.

Seoul shelled to smithereens.

DPRK and the Chinese PLA advance.

Jack Ryan deployed to Osan airbase, along with John Clark, and Ding Chavez.

Clark, Chavez, and Ryan (hesitantly, of course), are HAHO dropped into North Korea to gain evidence to expose DPRK's false flag attack.

Neck snapping, and hilarity ensue..

3-4 Chapters of extremely detailed accounts of US forces doing extremely awesome sh*t. ROK forces are portrayed as retreating sisseys.

????

Jack Ryan provides proof of Kim Jong Il's treachery moments before B-1 Bombers glass Beijing.

China pulls out, gives US "green light" to muck up the DPRK.

Kim Jong Il gets snuffed out by an AIM-120 from an F-22 while trying to flee from his secret runway hidden in the cliffs of Eastern North Korea.

US forces ride through NK, being greeted by ecstatic North Koreans.

Peace accord signed, Korea is reunited.
You forgot the awkward *** scene in the middle of the book.

[BlackFlag]

You forgot the awkward *** scene in the middle of the book.

Dammit, I knew I was forgetting something.

[G-AWZT]

I have a relative who was part of a Hawk missile detachment in 1970 located at Osan AFB. Their orders were to launch all missiles upon getting the invasion alarm and after doing so run for the bunkers.

[Russian_dude]

South Korea is on the border with North Korea, not a few kilometers away. And yes, it is very heavily guarded by both the US and SK forces. The few (and I mean less than 20) artillory pieces that are able to reach Seoul would be engaged within the hour. Their locations in the mountains are known and heavily targeted in advance. Sorry to burst your bubble but with all of NKs artillory, only a small amount can reach Seoul.

The South Korean troops are 1st rate and would hold much better than the Norks attacking them. They are better trained, better disciplined and have much better equipment to hold defensive lines that have been heavily fortified over the years. I would bet 50-60% of North Korean soldiers would head to the nearest noodle shop once across the border while 99.9% of South Korean troops kick butt. Cluster bombs, GPS guided shells, Attack Helocopters, massive air attacks, would quickly destroy and decimate any attack from North Korea.

Roadways, blocking positions, and every piece of ground between the DMZ and South Korea is, or would be heavily defended.

Troop movements in the North are carefully watched and any build up that would have to take place would be well known up to a week in advance.

Would it be bloody? Absolutely, as it would be an all or nothing effort from both sides in a very small distance over a short period of time. The result would be the end for North Korea.

Completely agree. STOP WITH THE ARTILLERY BS. Seoul is NOT on the border, it's at least 60kms away. I don't know about too many guns that have that range, and that if they can be placed ON THE FENCE at the DMZ. Considering that most will be several kms behind. Most NK artillery is 70KMs+ away from Seoul. Also, NK will not waste it's missiles on Seoul, they will target military infrastructure.

[dbamil]

Completely agree. STOP WITH THE ARTILLERY BS. Seoul is NOT on the border, it's at least 60kms away. I don't know about too many guns that have that range, and that if they can be placed ON THE FENCE at the DMZ. Considering that most will be several kms behind. Most NK artillery is 70KMs+ away from Seoul. Also, NK will not waste it's missiles on Seoul, they will target military infrastructure.

Agree with Russian_dude.
Yes, the whole NK artillery turning Seoul into a sea of inferno is just a scare tactic by NK to try to cow SK civilians into giving into their demands. There are SO many other 'targets' NK has to neutralize to 'invade'. NK would be pretty dumb to use so much artillery fire power just to attack the city, albeit it's big and important for SK.

BTW, I've heard SK artillery near the DMZ has what's called Counter Artillery Watch. A noncom is on duty next to an artillery piece, with a LIVE ammo loaded and ready to go. Not sure if it's true but I wouldn't say it's too far from truth.

NK may have a lot of artillery pieces, but NOT all of them are capable of reaching Seoul, even if they are placed right on the DMZ.

[Sootan]

I have a relative who was part of a Hawk missile detachment in 1970 located at Osan AFB. Their orders were to launch all missiles upon getting the invasion alarm and after doing so run for the bunkers.

Launch at whom?

[dbamil]

Launch at whom?

NK airplanes of course. In 1970, NK had better equipped armed forces compared to SK... For example In 1970, SK army was still largely armed with m1 and m1 carbines while NK had ak47.

[Russian_dude]

The window of opportunity to defeat the South is slipping away. I wonder if the North will risk it.

[SBL]

The window of opportunity to defeat the South is slipping away. I wonder if the North will risk it.
That window shut some time ago.

[Lethal Lou]

Couple of twists to use as food for thought . . .

1) NK has only a few nukes. Would be smart to use one as an EMP device to take out all the civilian computers, automobiles, power plants, e.g. non-hardened electronics in the South. That'll slow down coordination by fire/police/civil defense/etc. Plus fry all the electronics on civil aircraft doing evacs/etc. If they have enough option might be to launch another one to detonate over Tokyo as a warning (from their misguided sense of propriety) to stay out of the action. Note these are EMP pulses, not designed to have ground damage/create direct casualties - something they will point out later at the war crimes trials...

2) They will crater the runways. Little skill in that and that'll buy them several hours of time to make strikes until carrier aircraft arrive (and the SOFA with Japan is clarified/confirmed to allow US based aircraft there to revert).

3) The SPUs will target chem storage/manufacturing facilities in first hours. Subsequent civilian casualties will divert civil defense/police/fire from other tasks. Asymetric warfare 101.

4) NK has highly developed bio program. If this is an all or nothing move they may have incentive to release some of their production in advance of the push. Not necessarily lethal version (see war crimes trial comment above) but disabling so as to diminish the effectivity of the SK armed forces by 5-10 percent. No worries about blowback to their own population as (by definition of an all or nothing scenario) all the traffic will be North to South.

5) Blinding laser weapons unfielded by Chinese/West due lack of countermeasure (no frequency hopping sunglasses that allow perception currently available). Tech isn't that challenging so possible NK may "cross the line" and use same against SK forces. Non-lethal but permanently blinding weapons would again tie down SK forces taking care of casualties and provide force multiplier effect.

Remember - the NK doesn't play by the same rulebook as US/allied forces . . .

[dbamil]

The window of opportunity to defeat the South is slipping away. I wonder if the North will risk it.

That happened a LONG time ago. Now it's matter of can NK do any serious damage to SK before NK is routed. That's not gonna happen now but may eventually.

[Russian_dude]

I wonder how quickly NK forces will continue to degenerate. In 10 years they will probably have to ground 80% of their airforce.

[Lethal Lou]

And of course from today's headlines . . .

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/northkorea/7680345/North-Korea-masses-50000-troops-on-border.html

North Korea masses 50,000 troops on border

North Korea has completed deployment of about 50,000 special forces along the border with South Korea, amid high tensions over the sinking of a Seoul warship.


Published: 6:30AM BST 05 May 2010


The deployment began two or three years ago and seven 7,000-strong divisions are now in place, an unidentified senior government official told Yonhap news agency.

"The threat that North Korea may infiltrate special forces for limited warfare has become real," the agency quoted a separate senior defence ministry official as saying.

The defence ministry refused to confirm the Yonhap report, but President Lee Myung-Bak discussed the North's special warfare capabilities at an unprecedented meeting Tuesday with 150 top officers from all armed services.


At the meeting, Mr Lee hinted strongly that the North was involved in the sinking of a South Korean warship with the loss of 46 lives near the disputed sea border on March 26.

Suspicions are growing that the 1,200-tonne ship was hit by a torpedo from the communist state, which has denied involvement. Mr Lee said the South must be better prepared to tackle "asymmetric" military threats including special warfare units.

A defence ministry report in 2008 said the North - learning lessons from the Iraq war - had strengthened its special warfare capability by augmenting light infantry units and enhancing their street warfare, night-time and mountaineering training. The North has about 180,000 special forces, it said, adding they would be used for "multifarious types of attacks and mixed warfare" against the South.

[G-AWZT]

Launch at whom?


Had NK launched a suprise attack. They were to fire their missiles presumably at the incoming NK aircraft.

[Gerry301]

[QUOTE=Lethal Lou;4926729]Couple of twists to use as food for thought . . .

1) NK has only a few nukes. Would be smart to use one as an EMP device to take out all the civilian computers, automobiles, power plants, e.g. non-hardened electronics in the South. That'll slow down coordination by fire/police/civil defense/etc. Plus fry all the electronics on civil aircraft doing evacs/etc. If they have enough option might be to launch another one to detonate over Tokyo as a warning (from their misguided sense of propriety) to stay out of the action. Note these are EMP pulses, not designed to have ground damage/create direct casualties .

I don't know why everyone thinks NK has nuclear weapons. They had two underground explosions that could very well have been failed detonations. To go from that to nuclear armed warheads in missles is a huge jump in technology. I suspect at best the Norks could unlease a dirty bomb with plutonium at the tip of an artillory shell. That would cause havok, but far from a nuclear explosion.

[navybrook]

Someone guess how many tactical nuclear weapons the South and the US could quickly bring to the
equation. Many, many more than the North has for sure. That is the deterrent. That is what keeps the North from doing what they did in 1950. And the chances of China or Russia supporting aggression by the North is almost nonexistent. Ain't going to happen. Great to what-if, but isn't going to happen. :)

[arcadian]

Someone guess how many tactical nuclear weapons the South and the US could quickly bring to the
equation. Many, many more than the North has for sure. That is the deterrent. That is what keeps the North from doing what they did in 1950. And the chances of China or Russia supporting aggression by the North is almost nonexistent. Ain't going to happen. Great to what-if, but isn't going to happen. :)


X 2...couldn't have said it better

[Mastermind]

We have seen the scenario play out in these last two years. The "too Big To Fail" mentality is not just for economies and business. It also falls under the category of nations pitted against each other. NK does not ...in my opinion...know the absolute power it has over the SK and the West. SK is a massive contributor to the plus-side of global economy. Japan, Germany, France..etc. So, to have the NK...who are probably, just being one step above Somalia, the Armpit of the world have basicaly nothing to lose by an all out attack.

We have to wonder why they don't at least pretend it...moving masses of troops around...firing occasional artillery barrages into the SK. This most recent torp attack gave the game away. SK is too big to fail...they can not ever go to war agaisnt those screaming maniacs up north. Why? The world has moved past war as a means to settle problems of economics. The ME crap is nothing but a war about oil...but, it is a war against nations that are pretty much isolated by both culture and geography.

What if NK suddenly moved aggressively en mass? The USA is not going to help the SK out this time...even if US troops are killed. Diplomacy is the name of the game and the US would try to convince China of the folly. China would naturally not help the NK militarily...way too risky...China is now too Big to fail. NK, by acting the fool, could get anything they wanted....they can use their own people as guilt-fodder for the wealthier nations...and the risk to global economy is way, way bigger than NK demands can ever be. Those nuts up there could be living like kings if they wanted. The mind set of modern nations is...anything but war...I'm not talking about war like in the ME where only a pittance of people die. I'm talking about the old fashioned war...where hundreds of thousands die...millions ..and now, the west is broke to a point a new war in the Korea penn would simply be the proverbial "straw"...global chaos would ensue. so...appeasement, and caving in to any NK demand would rule the day if the world thought they were being serious.

The torp attack showed that NK does not understand their power...instead of crowing and beating the drums, they cowed..."oops!" Instead of "Hell Yeah! and we got plenty more where that came from, Muther fkrs!"

So, everyone breathed a deep sigh of relief. But, also, NK saw the SK doing all tye could to avoid having to make a response...they knew it was a torp attack the instant it happened. All this "investigation" sht is nothing but a desperate attempt at gainign time to measre and temper the response...and officially, they still say..."Well, it might be..."

If NK suddenly realizes the power, there is going to be a huge moment in the psyche of the econ giants....and then, once NK gets by with it...look out...Here will come a whole sht load of others trying the same game.

That's my scenario...just my own opinion, of course.

[Russian_dude]

And of course from today's headlines . . .

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/northkorea/7680345/North-Korea-masses-50000-troops-on-border.html

North Korea masses 50,000 troops on border

North Korea has completed deployment of about 50,000 special forces along the border with South Korea, amid high tensions over the sinking of a Seoul warship.


Published: 6:30AM BST 05 May 2010


The deployment began two or three years ago and seven 7,000-strong divisions are now in place, an unidentified senior government official told Yonhap news agency.

"The threat that North Korea may infiltrate special forces for limited warfare has become real," the agency quoted a separate senior defence ministry official as saying.

The defence ministry refused to confirm the Yonhap report, but President Lee Myung-Bak discussed the North's special warfare capabilities at an unprecedented meeting Tuesday with 150 top officers from all armed services.


At the meeting, Mr Lee hinted strongly that the North was involved in the sinking of a South Korean warship with the loss of 46 lives near the disputed sea border on March 26.

Suspicions are growing that the 1,200-tonne ship was hit by a torpedo from the communist state, which has denied involvement. Mr Lee said the South must be better prepared to tackle "asymmetric" military threats including special warfare units.

A defence ministry report in 2008 said the North - learning lessons from the Iraq war - had strengthened its special warfare capability by augmenting light infantry units and enhancing their street warfare, night-time and mountaineering training. The North has about 180,000 special forces, it said, adding they would be used for "multifarious types of attacks and mixed warfare" against the South.






There you go, light troops to lead the initial attack across the DMZ.

[Russian_dude]

We have seen the scenario play out in these last two years. The "too Big To Fail" mentality is not just for economies and business. It also falls under the category of nations pitted against each other. NK does not ...in my opinion...know the absolute power it has over the SK and the West. SK is a massive contributor to the plus-side of global economy. Japan, Germany, France..etc. So, to have the NK...who are probably, just being one step above Somalia, the Armpit of the world have basicaly nothing to lose by an all out attack.

We have to wonder why they don't at least pretend it...moving masses of troops around...firing occasional artillery barrages into the SK. This most recent torp attack gave the game away. SK is too big to fail...they can not ever go to war agaisnt those screaming maniacs up north. Why? The world has moved past war as a means to settle problems of economics. The ME crap is nothing but a war about oil...but, it is a war against nations that are pretty much isolated by both culture and geography.

What if NK suddenly moved aggressively en mass? The USA is not going to help the SK out this time...even if US troops are killed. Diplomacy is the name of the game and the US would try to convince China of the folly. China would naturally not help the NK militarily...way too risky...China is now too Big to fail. NK, by acting the fool, could get anything they wanted....they can use their own people as guilt-fodder for the wealthier nations...and the risk to global economy is way, way bigger than NK demands can ever be. Those nuts up there could be living like kings if they wanted. The mind set of modern nations is...anything but war...I'm not talking about war like in the ME where only a pittance of people die. I'm talking about the old fashioned war...where hundreds of thousands die...millions ..and now, the west is broke to a point a new war in the Korea penn would simply be the proverbial "straw"...global chaos would ensue. so...appeasement, and caving in to any NK demand would rule the day if the world thought they were being serious.

The torp attack showed that NK does not understand their power...instead of crowing and beating the drums, they cowed..."oops!" Instead of "Hell Yeah! and we got plenty more where that came from, Muther fkrs!"

So, everyone breathed a deep sigh of relief. But, also, NK saw the SK doing all tye could to avoid having to make a response...they knew it was a torp attack the instant it happened. All this "investigation" sht is nothing but a desperate attempt at gainign time to measre and temper the response...and officially, they still say..."Well, it might be..."

If NK suddenly realizes the power, there is going to be a huge moment in the psyche of the econ giants....and then, once NK gets by with it...look out...Here will come a whole sht load of others trying the same game.

That's my scenario...just my own opinion, of course.

That is a very exagerated post. US doesn't want to use war as a tool of diplomacy? Could have fooled me. So Afghanistan and invading a country the size of France is not war? US was invited to station couple of hundred thousand troops there?

After WW1 they thought there will never be another huge European war.

[Rictor]

I think that once a war has started, neither SK nor the USA will choose to leave NK in an unresolved state. North Korea is now akin to the Sword of Damocles hanging over SK. The people and government of the prosperous South have to live every day with the knowledge that a potential attack could reduce all their hard work to rubble.

So assuming a SK/US victory, I think they would take any measure necessary to finally depose the NK government. Essentially it would be post-WW2 Japan all over again. And South Korea, no matter how devastated, would elect to bring the war to a swift end and afterwards help NK slowly begin to build a real economy. It's in their long-term interests. The reunification of Germany was handled relatively gracefully; although I know that North Korea is far less developed than East Germany was, still I think the same principles would apply.

[Mastermind]

The correct resolution is for china to invade from the North and the SK and USA to invade from the south...all with a pre-invasion alliance to stop this insane destabilizing regime...NK has for far too long been rummaging through the dust bin of the 1952 war and has not achieved one damn thing. China should realize the fantastic potential of millions of new customers if NK could be brought to the modern era. SK spend billions with china, while NK does nothing but beg and cause erratic trouble that could some day lead to a total economic and social disaster of unprecidented proportions. Something simply must be done about these Old Style Commie nuts.

[Kadrun]

^
The problem is will China hand over North Korea to South Korea. Currently, China is chancing its ancient history and educate their citizens that Northern part of Korea was actually one of Chinese civilization and they have right to claim the land.

[retaxis]

^
The problem is will China hand over North Korea to South Korea. Currently, China is chancing its ancient history and educate their citizens that Northern part of Korea was actually one of Chinese civilization and they have right to claim the land.

don't go around spewing bullsh1t. I want to see where the school is teaching people that north korea is chinese.

You better not be basing **** crap on border issues either because every country has border issues. Does that mean America will claim over Canada because they have border issues or would Japan claim over taiwan since they have border issues?

[Kadrun]

don't go around spewing bullsh1t. I want to see where the school is teaching people that north korea is chinese.

You better not be basing **** crap on border issues either because every country has border issues. Does that mean America will claim over Canada because they have border issues or would Japan claim over taiwan since they have border issues?

You should do some research about "Northeast Borderland History and the Chain of Events Research Project (东北边疆历史与现状系列研究工程/東北邊疆歷史與現狀系列研究工程)".
It is different from borderline issue that you are thinking about.

[GottLuft]

Well I hope the purpose of this thread will not become reality ,that's all what I can say here.

[Gerry301]

Well I hope the purpose of this thread will not become reality ,that's all what I can say here.

I hope it does become reality. The starvation and mindless subjugation of a 23 million populace to slavery within a Stalinist state for the benifit of a few privilaged concentration camp leaders is abhorent to most people in the world today.

I think most Chinese understand this as well. The Chinese will not risk their trading status with much of the rest of the world to save Kim Jong Il from the inevitable.