2RHPZ
07-31-2004, 12:29 PM
THE TRANSFER OF THE ADMIRAL GORSHKOV AIRCRAFT CARRIER TO INDIA
Maxim Pyadushkin
The transfer of the Admiral Gorshkov aircraft-carrying cruiser accompanied by an entire air wing of MiG-29s to India could be one of the biggest arms export deals in Russia's history, but it also poses certain production and technological risks, given the low price of retrofitting this vessel.
Under a bilateral memorandum signed in 1998, the ship itself will be transferred to India for nothing, while the overhaul and upgrade of the ship and the delivery of its air wing are covered by contracts worth a total of $1.6 billion. The official ceremony presenting the ship to India took place on March 9 this year, though it won't be until 2008 that India actually receives the upgraded aircraft carrier and its MiG-29 air wing.
Meanwhile Russia has already come to face certain production and technological risks in relation to the contract. For Sevmash, a shipbuilding firm based in the town of Severodvinsk, these risks stem primarily from the relatively low price agreed upon for the overhaul and upgrade (in comparison to initial plans), which is driving profit margins to a minimum.
The price tag on the refit by Sevmash is approximately $650 million. The upgrade includes an extension of the runway on the cruiser's bow section and the installation of a ski-jump take-off ramp at the bow, as well as new missile systems.
The flight deck has to be modified because it was initially designed for Yak-38 jump jets, which have since been decommissioned. MiG-29K naval fighters have been chosen as the deck aircraft, and a contract for 12 MiG-29K and four MiG-29KUB fighter trainers has been signed with an estimated $730 million price tag. Another $200 million will be spent on Ka-27 and Ka-31 deck helicopters and training for the Indian crew.
Additionally, an option on the delivery of 30 more MiG-29 fighters and pending contracts for the construction of coastal infrastructure for the aircraft carrier may boost the total price for the Admiral Gorshkov to between $2.5 and $3 billion.
Despite the fact that the Indian side managed to win impressive price cuts for both the refit and the delivery of the air wing during the negotiations, which began in 1994, the deal was one of the biggest in the history of Russian-Indian military-technical cooperation, as well as the world's most expensive for a single naval vessel.
India took the opportunity to acquire a ship it needs primarily as a replacement for its navy's Viraat aircraft carrier, which is due to be decommissioned in 2010. For a brief time India will have two aircraft carriers, which will correspond with its strategy of establishing control over the Indian Ocean. Future chances of maintaining two aircraft carriers will evidently depend on the success of India's program to develop its own ADS aircraft carrier.
In contrast to Sevmash's low profit margins, Russian Aircraft Corporation MiG will get the actual financial means it so desperately needs. This is clearly important for the company, since most previous deliveries of MiG aircraft to poor countries in Africa and Asia in 2001-2002 involved disadvantageous deals with long periods of payment by installments. The main risks for RAC MiG are technological, since the only MiG-29Ks to have been constructed at this point are two test prototypes. The Indian contract will require the serial production of MiG-29s after a break of almost 11 years, as well as some R&D work to finish the aircraft and design its combat trainer modification. Given RCA MiG's vague status (the government plans to merge several firms into a united aircraft manufacturer), the question of launching production of the MiG-29K at the aviation plants in Komsomolsk-on-Amur or Irkutsk is being actively discussed.
The transfer of the Admiral Gorshkov may be the last contract of such a scale with India. India has now fully satisfied its needs for Russian armaments, and its government's policy has changed to preferring diversifying sources of arms purchases. Russia is increasingly becoming an exporter of arms platforms and low-tech models, while Western countries and Israel are becoming niche high-tech military hardware suppliers. Russia's share of the $100 billion that India plans to spend on arms procurements over the next 20 years will amount to no more than 25 percent. In addition to the contracts mentioned above, the most promising deals include an order for a second batch of Project 11256 frigates and the delivery of Smerch (SA-17 Grizzly) short-range surface-to-air missiles.
The sale of the Admiral Gorshkov raises the question of whether it is expedient for the Russian Navy to operate aircraft carriers at the current time. Considering the disgraceful demise of the other three Project 1143 aircraft carriers - the Kiev, the Minsk and the Novorossiisk were sold for scrap after being decommissioned by the Navy in 1993 - the fate of the Admiral Gorshkov seems fortunate for both the warship itself and for Russia as an arms exporter. Because it is plagued by technical problems, it is becoming clear that the Russian Navy's last remaining heavy aircraft carrier, the Admiral Kuznetsov (Project 11435), is incapable of carrying out actual combat missions. The military top brass has no plans to build new aircraft carriers before 2015, and has instead assigned priority to littoral ships - corvettes and frigates. Thus, the only reason for keeping the Admiral Kuznetsov operational is to preserve its school of deck aircraft pilots.
Maxim Pyadushkin
The transfer of the Admiral Gorshkov aircraft-carrying cruiser accompanied by an entire air wing of MiG-29s to India could be one of the biggest arms export deals in Russia's history, but it also poses certain production and technological risks, given the low price of retrofitting this vessel.
Under a bilateral memorandum signed in 1998, the ship itself will be transferred to India for nothing, while the overhaul and upgrade of the ship and the delivery of its air wing are covered by contracts worth a total of $1.6 billion. The official ceremony presenting the ship to India took place on March 9 this year, though it won't be until 2008 that India actually receives the upgraded aircraft carrier and its MiG-29 air wing.
Meanwhile Russia has already come to face certain production and technological risks in relation to the contract. For Sevmash, a shipbuilding firm based in the town of Severodvinsk, these risks stem primarily from the relatively low price agreed upon for the overhaul and upgrade (in comparison to initial plans), which is driving profit margins to a minimum.
The price tag on the refit by Sevmash is approximately $650 million. The upgrade includes an extension of the runway on the cruiser's bow section and the installation of a ski-jump take-off ramp at the bow, as well as new missile systems.
The flight deck has to be modified because it was initially designed for Yak-38 jump jets, which have since been decommissioned. MiG-29K naval fighters have been chosen as the deck aircraft, and a contract for 12 MiG-29K and four MiG-29KUB fighter trainers has been signed with an estimated $730 million price tag. Another $200 million will be spent on Ka-27 and Ka-31 deck helicopters and training for the Indian crew.
Additionally, an option on the delivery of 30 more MiG-29 fighters and pending contracts for the construction of coastal infrastructure for the aircraft carrier may boost the total price for the Admiral Gorshkov to between $2.5 and $3 billion.
Despite the fact that the Indian side managed to win impressive price cuts for both the refit and the delivery of the air wing during the negotiations, which began in 1994, the deal was one of the biggest in the history of Russian-Indian military-technical cooperation, as well as the world's most expensive for a single naval vessel.
India took the opportunity to acquire a ship it needs primarily as a replacement for its navy's Viraat aircraft carrier, which is due to be decommissioned in 2010. For a brief time India will have two aircraft carriers, which will correspond with its strategy of establishing control over the Indian Ocean. Future chances of maintaining two aircraft carriers will evidently depend on the success of India's program to develop its own ADS aircraft carrier.
In contrast to Sevmash's low profit margins, Russian Aircraft Corporation MiG will get the actual financial means it so desperately needs. This is clearly important for the company, since most previous deliveries of MiG aircraft to poor countries in Africa and Asia in 2001-2002 involved disadvantageous deals with long periods of payment by installments. The main risks for RAC MiG are technological, since the only MiG-29Ks to have been constructed at this point are two test prototypes. The Indian contract will require the serial production of MiG-29s after a break of almost 11 years, as well as some R&D work to finish the aircraft and design its combat trainer modification. Given RCA MiG's vague status (the government plans to merge several firms into a united aircraft manufacturer), the question of launching production of the MiG-29K at the aviation plants in Komsomolsk-on-Amur or Irkutsk is being actively discussed.
The transfer of the Admiral Gorshkov may be the last contract of such a scale with India. India has now fully satisfied its needs for Russian armaments, and its government's policy has changed to preferring diversifying sources of arms purchases. Russia is increasingly becoming an exporter of arms platforms and low-tech models, while Western countries and Israel are becoming niche high-tech military hardware suppliers. Russia's share of the $100 billion that India plans to spend on arms procurements over the next 20 years will amount to no more than 25 percent. In addition to the contracts mentioned above, the most promising deals include an order for a second batch of Project 11256 frigates and the delivery of Smerch (SA-17 Grizzly) short-range surface-to-air missiles.
The sale of the Admiral Gorshkov raises the question of whether it is expedient for the Russian Navy to operate aircraft carriers at the current time. Considering the disgraceful demise of the other three Project 1143 aircraft carriers - the Kiev, the Minsk and the Novorossiisk were sold for scrap after being decommissioned by the Navy in 1993 - the fate of the Admiral Gorshkov seems fortunate for both the warship itself and for Russia as an arms exporter. Because it is plagued by technical problems, it is becoming clear that the Russian Navy's last remaining heavy aircraft carrier, the Admiral Kuznetsov (Project 11435), is incapable of carrying out actual combat missions. The military top brass has no plans to build new aircraft carriers before 2015, and has instead assigned priority to littoral ships - corvettes and frigates. Thus, the only reason for keeping the Admiral Kuznetsov operational is to preserve its school of deck aircraft pilots.