Libya's rebel administration: Up to two years to organize elections.

[liberal cl]

http://blogs.aljazeera.net/liveblog/libya


The vice chairman of Libya's rebel administration says it could take up to two years to organize elections, backtracking on promises of a six-month transition to democracy.

Abdel-Hafidh Ghoga's announcement is adding to internal dissent within the opposition movement seeking to topple Gaddafi.

Ghoga, of the National Transitional Council, said at a news conference Wednesday that a one- to two-year transition period would be needed after the hoped-for ouster of Gaddafi.

In that time, he said, the opposition would form a transitional legislative body tasked with writing a constitution, hold a referendum on the charter, form political parties and then hold elections. Some opposition supporters suspect council members are intent on prolonging their power.

They should at least wait until they knock Gaddafi out before exposing themselves as just another dictatorship.

[kalerab]

From what I know Ghoga isn´t most popular member of TNC, Jebril and Jelil are most prominent figures. Still, Libya does not have any democratic institutions thanks to Gaddafi, there were no elections, even rigged, no experience, nothing. They have to start from point zero, it´s understandable that it will take some time but 2 years? That´s too long, it can be done in 1 year at max.

[wicked_hind]

I think two years sounds pretty reasonable for them to find the right men/women to fill the respective government positions. As said before, take care of the immediate problem at hand, first.

[IconOfEvi]

Meet the new boss, same as the old boss?

I agree tho that the war should be won first in some form.

[Universals]

This is gonna be a show. clusterfuk waiting to happen.

[KoTeMoRe]

From what I know Ghoga isn´t most popular member of TNC, Jebril and Jelil are most prominent figures. Still, Libya does not have any democratic institutions thanks to Gaddafi, there were no elections, even rigged, no experience, nothing. They have to start from point zero, it´s understandable that it will take some time but 2 years? That´s too long, it can be done in 1 year at max.

Libya had open elections each term. The base comitees would hold an open vote after hearing local issues. Wich basically haven't changed. Now the problem will not be the "voting" part. It will be the money part. With a native population heavily subsidized by Daffy, the fun is about to begin. People wil $hiton daffy, but they will also need to find money now...by working. They have a 30% unemployment rate (CIA) and 25 to 28% of the population has no alternative income to Daffy's bakshish.

Oh and elections after a civil war is kinda useless. The power structure within Libya is shaken. If the Rebels win it, there will be NO base of power anymore, given how NATO is targeting the LIbyan Armed Forces. Iraq is a great example on how you succeed having peace without a military force. Given the implication of more "durable" assets (helicopters now) I think we can all agree on the durable destruction of the current Libyan Armed Forces part (bar the defectors).

So in these conditions. Elections are pretty much a non-event.

[bababooey]

Good idea. Get a leg up on things. The Kernel's days are numbered.

[Jµµso]

That didn't take too long. Wonder how long it takes before that "two years" will be five years and so on...

[KoTeMoRe]

One issue is where THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF LIGHT WEAPONS in going to when this will be over.

[Mordoror]

One issue is where THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF LIGHT WEAPONS in going to when this will be over.

NATO Task Force Fox ???
just joking ...............................

[KoTeMoRe]

p-).

Seriously: Better be not. After the Albanian unrest in 1997, the huge amount of weaponery fueled TWO civil wars in the Balkans and a spike in violence in the Western Europe mob underground.

So after this crap being over, I got these fears that the 15 or so million light weapons in dumps and depots of the Libyan Republic will have a fabulous potential in Subsaharan Africa.

It seems the gentlemen in charge in Paris, London and W.D.C. overlooked this tiny detail.

BTW I love what the PICTURES AND VIDEOS thread has become. A common place for propaganda and witless humour.

"(...) all your base are belong to us Rah Rah Rah (...)".

Sad seeing kids laughing at a civil war.

[Mordoror]

So after this crap being over, I got these fears that the 15 or so million light weapons in dumps and depots of the Libyan Republic will have a fabulous potential in Subsaharan Africa. Already began
Insistant reports of weapons smuggled in Chad/Mali/Mauritania even up to Senegal appear daily
Weapons falling in hands of AQMI too
And i guess that West europe future burglars are rubbing their hands

The networks of smuggling already exist (illegal smugglers from Libya, drug smugglers from Tunisia/Morocco), it will be easy to bring a bunch of AK/grenades/RPGs in Europe
Expect a new wave (like the 96-2000s one) of CIT attacks with HEAT explosive or antitank tubes

[KoTeMoRe]

Second worry; Who will be bribed this time to keep the Africans at bay? And when?

We're witnessing a complete change in the power balance within Libya. Take this as Nietzsche's "Murder of the Father". Sons are going to take over, but then revert to the father's ways. Regarding the African immigrants, they will have to.

[Mordoror]

Second worry; Who will be bribed this time to keep the Africans at bay? And when?

Less worrying
Given that the future wining side (the TNC) is on our side and depends on us
The good question is however when. Actually i don't think there are a lot of sub saharan illegals that dare to take their chances through battle areas. But there will be a void timelap (between the hanging of duffy and sons and the new elections that will see the revolutionnary gov of Libyan setting the NLO a.k.a new libyan order) that may see huge waves of immigrants crossing the desert and then the mediteranean sea

[kalerab]

Libya had open elections each term. The base comitees would hold an open vote after hearing local issues. Wich basically haven't changed. Now the problem will not be the "voting" part. It will be the money part. With a native population heavily subsidized by Daffy, the fun is about to begin. People wil $hiton daffy, but they will also need to find money now...by working. They have a 30% unemployment rate (CIA) and 25 to 28% of the population has no alternative income to Daffy's bakshish.

Oh and elections after a civil war is kinda useless. The power structure within Libya is shaken. If the Rebels win it, there will be NO base of power anymore, given how NATO is targeting the LIbyan Armed Forces. Iraq is a great example on how you succeed having peace without a military force. Given the implication of more "durable" assets (helicopters now) I think we can all agree on the durable destruction of the current Libyan Armed Forces part (bar the defectors).

So in these conditions. Elections are pretty much a non-event.

You mean those popular comitees with no real power which "elected" representatives in district congresses and those to general congress? Well it worked on paper, in reality only those with influence in rulling family and inner circle ever got to General Congress, it is variation of Communist party so-called inner elections in Eastern and Central Europe. However even in WP there were general elections, there were institutions for them. Corrupted and rigged? Yes, but there were. Rules had to be changed, not institutions. The real power in Libya was in hands of Gaddafi and his family, he personally had power over revolutionary congress and it was he and his affiliates who choose who will be in GPC and therefore whole government. What is there are not electorate institutions but charade. As for army, in Iraq coalition military was stronger than Iraqi army ever could´ve been, the responsibility for security will for sure lie for some time on blue helmets as police never really had some real power and military is long gone. As for unemployement - same thing as in WP countries after 89 - decrease of living standarts, higher unemployement for some time, it will be up to new government to open its market for private companies (where vast majority of Libyan worked for the government), get used to taxes and more importantly prevention of corruption. Now, it would pluck my eyes out of my skull if corruption would not be on level at least Slovakia of 90s intially (meaning extremely huge) but Libya as a state has large sum of moneys in oil. Something East and Central European economies never had. As for weapons I wrote about it months ago, that´s going to be one gigantic problem, in Macedonia it was partially solved by Operation Essential Harvest, something similiar has to be launched there as soon as war ends. But unlike Yugoslavia subsaharan Africa is already drowning itself in illegal weapons dealing since fall of Soviet Union, it won´t be that much worse. And Europe has to realize that their approach of bribing north African dictators to not let refugees bord their ships to Italy, France, Greece etc. so they don´t have to deal with them and loads of NGOs which would love to see whole Africa move to Europe will not work. Reviving inner Schengen borders is another idiotic idea that won´t solve anything, problem is EXTERNAL border, new rules have to be applies, possibly even changes in marintime law to not let ship into the territorial water of said country without permission no matter the situation, immidiate deportation, building of new detention centers. However Brussels, Paris, Roma are all afraid of NGOs which will bring tons of ****storm on them if they even mention that.

And as for Libyan photos thread - I´m just waiting till Ngati will appear there, get pissed, start swinging right and left with his banstick and lock thread indefinitely.

[KoTeMoRe]

I was looking at the very point you raise. When GaGa will be toppled, and the new Boss will be sworn in by the Contact Group, who will stop them. Actually the fun part is that, the war was supposed to increase departures of illegals from Libya. The reality showed that the departures hiked from Tunisians, people that had suceeded in their revolution. Debunking the points claimed by France in order to interfere...what next?

Sofar we had:

Geopolitical instability to be spread by Daffy's war...Nope. It's looming because of the NATO intervention.
Stoping Illeglas from crossing. Lampedusa's never been so full of...Tunisians.
AQMI taking advantage of the unrest. Only if prolonged...who made this last longer? Plus they might welcome some more weapons.
Oil prices...hiking. Still hiking...despite KSA filling the void.

Baffled by the general apathy to be honest.

[kalerab]

Well illegals departed from Libya in huge numbers, however they stopped in Tunisia and Egypt since they left with no money and therefore no means to buy a ticket on boat to Lampedusa. As for Tunisia I don´t know what the hell is Caid, and before him Ghannouchi, thinking. EU has to send mediators there asap and force him to stop boats from deporting from ports, after all Tunisian coast guard and navy were untouched by revolution, if EU can´t make stronger laws against immigration in first place that is.

[KoTeMoRe]

Kalerab: Now we're talking. I appreciate your honest input and we both come from the same "mould".

Let's however try and adress your points. Simply.


Yes, but there were. Rules had to be changed, not institutions. The real power in Libya was in hands of Gaddafi and his family, he personally had power over revolutionary congress and it was he and his affiliates who choose who will be in GPC and therefore whole government.

Wrong partially. The power was in the hands of eight major tribes who actually send their men in the 12-people council that toppled King Idriss.

Among those twelve, 3 were still in charge before february 2011. Ghadaffi and his family were not alone. I'm always baffled by the fact that Eastern European people speak of family systems when usually dictatorships are whole chains of people with usually marginal freedom of action.


As for unemployement - same thing as in WP countries after 89 - decrease of living standarts, higher unemployement for some time, it will be up to new government to open its market for private companies (where vast majority of Libyan worked for the government), get used to taxes and more importantly prevention of corruption. Now, it would pluck my eyes out of my skull if corruption would not be on level at least Slovakia of 90s intially (meaning extremely huge) but Libya as a state has large sum of moneys in oil.

Eastern Europe had brains, discipline and a sense of duty. Education in Libya is lacking. Not basic education? We're speaking about whole part so of the country that were "students in welfare". Being a rent state (mono-income) is what helped Ghadaffi bribe his people. Libya has mainly oil. It has no other sources of income. Unlike Tunisia or Algeria, it cannot tap indefinitively on the water sources in the deserts. Decrase of living standarts? Nope, actually I do tend to see and slight change. Not much. Given the current subsidizing is kept to quell any backfiring.

The problem however is that Libya is a 6 million market with almost 10% of it's workforce being illegals or foreigners. I can relate to that. Small market with decaying infrastructure...welcome to Al..err. I'm pretty sure that the size of Libya might help one or another Euro Company establish a monopoly, but a couple of them would find it too narrow to settle in. That again is what helped Ghdaffi and his cronies have the monopoly of power. Once a trans-national mid-sized company is in Libya it has pretty much covered all the given sector.


But unlike Yugoslavia subsaharan Africa is already drowning itself in illegal weapons dealing since fall of Soviet Union, it won´t be that much worse.


Very Wrong. Weapons are literally fongible. Africa is not drown under weapons. Actually Libya had more weapons than the RDC a country that has 12 times it's population. Contrarily to what people believe, SubS Africa is NOT full of weapons. It is a pipe dream. The lack of weaponery, modern (fairly) at that is what explains the low intensity, high casualty conflicts in SubS Africa. People badly armed, badly supplied, without much experience and massacres of UNarmed civillians. Because SubS Africa has been kept as unarmed as possible in order to be swept aside at ease by the powers of the time.

[kalerab]

Kalerab: Now we're talking. I appreciate your honest input and we both come from the same "mould".

Thanks, same to you.


Let's however try and adress your points. Simply.



Wrong partially. The power was in the hands of eight major tribes who actually send their men in the 12-people council that toppled King Idriss.

Among those twelve, 3 were still in charge before february 2011. Ghadaffi and his family were not alone. I'm always baffled by the fact that Eastern European people speak of family systems when usually dictatorships are whole chains of people with usually marginal freedom of action.

By Gaddafi and his family I didnt mean only Gaddafi himself + his sons but his wider family from Qaddadfa tribe. For example Mussa Ibrahim, minister of information. Also what I spoke about was inner circle, there is also wider circle which involves representatives from fe Warfella tribe and others but from what I know these tribe representatives are yes-sayers which are controled by inner circle by money and power. And you are right when you compare it to Communist parties across the eastern Europe but even there was inner circle, general assembly of Communist party, with outer circle beeing representatives by regional party structures. Their power was however limited to will of general assembly, in similiar manner Libyan circles of power are. Inner circle decides on nation-wide matters, while regional comitees have limited power over regional matters. However my point was about institutions of power which completely differ from what Eastern Europe had. Although you can transform GPC into sort of nation-wide parliament and regional cometees into regional parliament where representatives will be elected by voters it will take time to create completely new institutions of check and balances because institutions like revolutionary comitee has to be abolished completely. That means a lot of power which has to be transformed to either restructualizes institutions or newly created. Not even talking about elections themself which will have to start from point zero. Create institutions which will oversee whole elections, which will organize them, choose people from whole spectrum to ensure they won´t be rigged etc. That was my main point.




Eastern Europe had brains, discipline and a sense of duty. Education in Libya is lacking. Not basic education? We're speaking about whole part so of the country that were "students in welfare". Being a rent state (mono-income) is what helped Ghadaffi bribe his people. Libya has mainly oil. It has no other sources of income. Unlike Tunisia or Algeria, it cannot tap indefinitively on the water sources in the deserts. Decrase of living standarts? Nope, actually I do tend to see and slight change. Not much. Given the current subsidizing is kept to quell any backfiring.

The problem however is that Libya is a 6 million market with almost 10% of it's workforce being illegals or foreigners. I can relate to that. Small market with decaying infrastructure...welcome to Al..err. I'm pretty sure that the size of Libya might help one or another Euro Company establish a monopoly, but a couple of them would find it too narrow to settle in. That again is what helped Ghdaffi and his cronies have the monopoly of power. Once a trans-national mid-sized company is in Libya it has pretty much covered all the given sector.

Yes, we did but problem was that many of those brains emigrated to western Europe or United States, which used that education system in WP was for free and that we had quality teachers. Libya on the other side has large diaspora of students and post-graduates in UK, Germany, States or other countries. Next government has to motivate them to return back, especially doctors and egineers, that would give them a huge boost. Also having oil as sole source of income is true in Libyan case but thanks to that they can use money from oil contracts to motivate foreign companies to come to country, after all they have only 6 milion large population, that´s huge advantage. Give these money to private sector, for example to tourism which is great source of income in Egypt and prooved to be effective in Croatia after war.

And I agree, that is a huge risk. As I said before is up to new government to prevent that happening. Than again, it´s once again matter of corruption.


Very Wrong. Weapons are literally fongible. Africa is not drown under weapons. Actually Libya had more weapons than the RDC a country that has 12 times it's population. Contrarily to what people believe, SubS Africa is NOT full of weapons. It is a pipe dream. The lack of weaponery, modern (fairly) at that is what explains the low intensity, high casualty conflicts in SubS Africa. People badly armed, badly supplied, without much experience and massacres of UNarmed civillians. Because SubS Africa has been kept as unarmed as possible in order to be swept aside at ease by the powers of the time.

That´s surprising. I know how arm depots were literally robbed in Ukraine and especially after Transniterian war in former base of 14th Soviet Army and arms dealers shady deals with RUF, NPFL, Sudan and loads of other countries. Granted, most of these weapons were from ammo depots of involved countries which were supplied by WP prior to break-up of Eastern Block but still many found their ways there. Still, we both agree that many of those weapons in Libya will find their way to black market, but problem also be with tons of vigilantees because as rebels, so Gaga gave weapons to those who declared that they are loyal. These people have to be disarmed in a way Essential Harvest disarmed KLA in Macedonia.

[KoTeMoRe]

Give these money to private sector, for example to tourism which is great source of income in Egypt and prooved to be effective in Croatia after war.


...Egypt 80 million people and Tourism needs political control and public security.
The Croatian case cannot be duplicated. Croatia had always had that Tourist culture. In services you need more than sea, beach and sun. Libya had great organized tours regarding Roman ruins. Those are not going to change. The mass tourism on the coast might be far more problematic given some areas of Libya are quite conservative. Then again, having a small population will force resort managers to employ foreigners (who said illegals)?

Returning to Libya...very difficult again, Eastern Europe docet.

On Africa's weapons. It's indeed the case. Africa is not that black-market heaven it was shown to be.