Bet on America in 2012

[beNder]

It's the start of a new year and in the spirit of keeping myself honest, I thought I'd look back at what I said and wrote in TIME Magazine at the start of last year (http://www.fareedzakaria.com/home/Articles/Entries/2010/12/28_WikiLeaks_Shows_the_Skills_of_U.S._Diplomats_2.html) to see how I did. It's always risky to stick your neck out and humbling to look at your own predictions - but here goes.

The only indulgence I will allow myself is to start with the areas where I did well. I said that I thought that China would moderate its foreign policy behavior, recognizing that its assertiveness and arrogance over the last year had caused jitters throughout Asia. I think that happened.

I said that the Taliban's momentum would be broken in Afghanistan; it has somewhat. And I said that the American drawdown of troops in Iraq would take place and would cause no regional crisis or instability. All of that seemed to play out pretty much as I predicted.

I said that Iran would continue to be checked by a large group of regional and global powers. But there would be no American or Israeli strike. So far, so good.

Now, my misses:

I said that Europe would survive. It has taken the Europeans much time and many crises to come to the realization that they will have to bail out their spendthrift and unlucky partners in Greece and Ireland and perhaps in Portugal and Spain as well. Germany can afford the bill.

Well, Europe has survived but I think the situation did not resolve itself nearly so easily as I had thought it would.

My biggest miss, however, was the U.S. economy, which I thought would recover more vigorously than it did.

So what do I think for this year?

Believe it or not, I'm going to double down on my bets. I might have got the timing wrong, but I think I have the substance right. Europe will deal with its problems - not in a clean dramatic way, perhaps, not in the way that I had thought it would, but through various complex mechanisms that involve the stability fund, the European Central Bank and perhaps some kind of bond insurance.

Source (http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2012/01/01/zakaria-bet-on-america-in-2012/?iref=allsearch)

[HK in AK]

I think you would be wrong to listen to that advice. The problem lies in the fact that our economy is consumer based, and consumers are not doing very well; especially when you look at the drop in the value of real wages. There may be more jobs being created in the economy, but they are lower paying and thus creating poorer consumers who still have massive debts. If taxes increased in order to deal with the federal debt, consumers would be bankruptcy because they couldn't afford the new taxes.

[Rattfink]

Iran and Taliban....ok he got mostly right.
China checked its foreign policy and aggressiveness? Not sure I would agree there.
Europe and America still effed in the A.

Grats bro, you're almost as good as flipping a coin.

[Gordon]

I like his statement about Iraq and being correct about the ramifications of the withdrawal. It was only completed a couple of weeks back and everything isn't exactly looking rosy but he claims he was correct about predicting no regional instability or crisis.

Well, I guess he's correct(ish) as of now but it would be nice of him to note we haven't really had time to realise the full effects at this time.


U.S. economy recovering? Maybe TIME sales are up, I don't know.

[Ordie]

Economy moving up?

I'm seeing more entrepreneurs and start ups giving it a go lately.
But at a small scale, taking every advantages what the apps provides.

[HK in AK]

Economy moving up?

I'm seeing more entrepreneurs and start ups giving it a go lately.
But at a small scale, taking every advantages what the apps provides.


The problem with most small business startups is that 70 percent of them fail - mainly due to being undercapitalized. And if they do succeed, they are usually small companies that cannot afford a large benefit package for its employees.

[Mein Teil]

The problem with most small business startups is that 70 percent of them fail - mainly due to being undercapitalized...
Thanks......as I sit here summarizing my first inventory order of AR15 parts...for my new store :bash:

[HK in AK]

Just remember that capitalization is one of the keys to success.

Here is a good list of the others that you should be able answer!!

http://www.businessknowhow.com/startup/business-failure.htm

[Flagg]

What I bet is that we will see a bit of a dead cat bounce for the US Dollar due to continuing EU mess before the EU cuts back to the core and ditches the losers combined with China tripping and stumbling on it's property bubble.

Then the temporary dead cat bounce flight to the US Dollar will be followed by more printing and the US Dollar fading in comparison with gold, energy, food.

I see approx. 100% inflation for necessities over a 5-ish year period....NOT including housing....housing prices will continue to fall on average or finally flatten.

I bet on the US long-term....but not until the short term pain is SO high in ENOUGH people to finally act in the best interest of the nation long-term.

There is no recovery....

[Ought Six]

When and if we stop borrowing 40% of all the money our government is spending; and we unwind the massive leverage of outstanding derivatives; and the massive stocks of foreclosed properties are sold off; then I may engage in a tiny bit of tentative optimism. But all signs indicate that will not happen, so I will continue to prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

[Mein Teil]

When and if we stop borrowing 40% of all the money our government is spending; and we unwind the massive leverage of outstanding derivatives; and the massive stocks of foreclosed properties are sold off; then I may engage in a tiny bit of tentative optimism. But all signs indicate that will not happen, so I will continue to prepare for the worst and hope for the best.I hate to say it, but I think Flagg is spot on. Nothing due to the fault of the American people either. They'll actually be encouraged and give a go of it and work harder and even start to reinvenst and losen the purse strings a little. Unfortunately the real damage is deep and once Europe finally keels over I think the printing frenzy will have to begin.

[Ought Six]

The printing frenzy is already well underway. It is just not out in the open at the moment.

[Mein Teil]

The printing frenzy is already well underway. It is just not out in the open at the moment.What I meant was you ain't seen nothing yet.

[Mackie]

Germany can afford the bill.


One cuts spending by $1.2 trillion and one raises taxes by $3.9 trillion. Remember, the Bush tax cuts expire if Congress does nothing, so all of the sudden there are pressures that bring the budget deficit down Read: A post-American world in progress. (http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/12/29/zakaria-a-post-american-world-in-progress/)
So the budget deficit problem could get solved - albeit in a blunt, crude way, but maybe that's how democracy works.



What is this guy smoking?

[IconOfEvi]

People will keep arguing about the whys and hows till the missiles start flying

[Ordie]

I see new housing to recover in America. Not the single family units, but more mixed use, urban density rental apartments and extended family units. Educated and skilled American Latinos will seek employment oopportunities in Latin America. Being bi-lingual and cross-cultural is a marketing director greatest asset.Brazilian Portugese is the new Mandarin for educated yuppies kids to learn.Peru might be the next Chile in terms of industrial output. If Castro dies and relations with Cuba opens up, the rest of the Carribbean is screwed in terms of tourism.Buzzword of the year: Analytics

[bravosixniner]

When and if we stop borrowing 40% of all the money our government is spending; and we unwind the massive leverage of outstanding derivatives; and the massive stocks of foreclosed properties are sold off; then I may engage in a tiny bit of tentative optimism. But all signs indicate that will not happen, so I will continue to prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

Not when Iowa and Iowans are busy loving ethanol subsidies and farm subsidies that no one in the caucus except Ron Paul opposes. I think imma lobby Obama are a gas rebate, I mean farmers get paid to farm, I wanna get paid for going to work by Uncle Sam too.

[vryhpyammoadded]

The fed reserve will continue, along with US powers, to coerce the illusion that the economy isn’t as bad off as it really is via wealth redistribution from anyone, especially those against them, holding dollars into the recapitalization bucket along with the biggest marketing, spin and coercive campaign humanity has ever seen. Meanwhile those being beaten up with the dollar will paradoxically find themselves also investing in the US as it will be the safest bet for investments as the rest of the planet goes into fits due to exported US inflation, hostile market manipulations, political back stabbing and outright theft of others investments.

Watching FIRE and its pet US government beat the crap out of the world, taking its wealth hook or crook has been an amazing learning experience in cold, pragmatic, Machiavellian psychology these past couple of years. It astounds me how humanity hasn’t experienced more violence over the period but I suspect its due to most being desperate, ignorant or playing wait and see. My guess is we’ll see quite an uptick in socioeconomic and political distortion later in 012 with the US appearing rather calm (accepting the manufactured angst circus due to the election)

012: Market up a lot, HARP II nets 1.5+ million Obama votes (savings harvested by taxes the next year), mildly increasing unemployment (made to look steady or slightly down via propaganda but should he get congress, next year will go down with fed work programs), overall the economy will slide downward with the rich getting vastly richer and the poor more shackled to the peonage treadmill. The middle class will be an endangered species. US cohesion will be sorely tested than ever before, especially after the games to coerce wealth from others via the world reserve currency burn out trust in the dollar around late 015.

This divorce is going to be epic! I wonder what the new wife will look like in 016.

[shermbodius]

People will keep arguing about the whys and hows till the missiles start flying
It seems to be the same old song and dance again and again....