North Korea

[Vivelamorte]

Hi!

So what do you guys think are the most likely scenarios for an armed engagement with North Korea?

Personally, I think most of Seoul would be destroyed, the North Koreans will push forward, but then lose ground gained because of lack of air power. Large-scale urban warfare, and guerilla operations by North Korean SF (which are reputed to be the best in the world for their kind of mission).

[ShakesFIST]

I foresee them starting it with a massive bombardment of the South and sabotage operations by infiltrators. The air power would attack but would be mostly damaged or destroyed by South Korean, USAF, and USN aircraft and air defense. I think they would push the South Korean and US forces away from the border and they would be cut off by the massive numbers of North Korean forces. Korean and US forces would try and hold Seoul while the North would encircle them and continue south. The navy would respond with air strikes as the USAF airfields will have been overrun. Strategic bombers will bombard from allied airfields in other countries. The Marines will break the Seoul siege at Inchon and will fight to create a corridor to resupply Seoul. Reinforcements will be brought in from the sea and air to prepare a counter attack. Airborne and special operations units will drop in a line to cut off the forces advancing south. The heavier army units will advance and meet up with the airborne unit positions. The North will counter attack to attempt to break through but will fail due to the now overwhelming air and naval firepower being brought upon them as well as the entrenching US forces. Incoming US (and allied?) forces will continue arriving and will slowly push south to eliminate the remaining units surviving in the south. The south will be retaken but at the cost of massive losses on both sides. The US will advance to the border and by then the diplomacy will kick in and it will be another cease fire for decades.

Thats not based on anything but what I know (or have heard). Ive never been to Korea (either one). I havent intensely studied the North and South's army. Its all my opinion and the way I see it happening.

[hughdotoh]

Matter of fact, they don't need to occupy the whole peninsula. They'd probably just nuke Seoul, ruin as much of South Korea's industry (located just south of the DMZ) as they can, and disrupt the capitalist economy as a whole before withdrawing. Sleeper agents in Seoul and Pusan would conduct sabotage in those cities and give the biggest disruption possible, including suicide missions.

Anything to make the Southerners and Americans lose face, i.e.: South Korea relied on the US for protection, but the Americans failed to provide that protection. Most of Asia would look at the US as a failure, while the North Koreans gain face by whipping the Gringo. With the southern economy in ruins, it would be costly for the US to help an ally out, and the Democrats would concede that it's all an internal Korean problem that America shouldn't ever get involved with.

[ShakesFIST]

I assumed that nuclear weapons wouldnt be used. Maybe if the north was losing badly or the US crossed the North Korean border or some similar sign pointing to "Its all over".

[Vivelamorte]

I foresee them starting it with a massive bombardment of the South and sabotage operations by infiltrators. Korean and US forces would try and hold Seoul while the North would encircle them and continue south.

This will be of interest to you:

http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/acsc/99-102.pdf

It's a 55-page article on "Countering North Korean Special Purpose Forces" from a US Major. North Korea apparently close to 104,000 men in their Special Purpose Forces, and I believe they pose a major threat.

Nice quote from the text:

"According to Joseph Bermudez, North Korea‘s (DPRK) Special Purpose Forces (SPF) are poised to infiltrate into South Korea and disrupt the Combined Forces Command of South Korea‘s rear area operations. They will attempt to destroy or capture soft targets such as Army logistics bases and Air Force bases.1 This force is capable of massing and appearing anywhere if hostilities recommence between the two Koreas. With over 104,000 elite soldiers, these soldiers can arrive on the battlefield by hovercraft, helicopter, light planes and parachutes, tunnels, submarines, and by boat."

Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. has authored a few books on the DPRK. Unfortuanately, I've only read excerpts from his book on the SF, because it's quite expensive and costs about 179 Euros here in Germany.

So, basically South Korea and it's allies will have two fronts - one in the rear, in which they have to counter highly-trained DPRK SF, who are reputed to be utmost trained and possess a brilliant mindset - and another front right bang smack in front of their nose, consisting of a cockload mass of armor, artillery and men.

The latter will have to be bombed heavily. The SF will be the major threat and pain, however. The idea about small groups or even single fighters using irregular techniques in areas with a high population density is quite a bloody nightmare, if you ask me.

Classic pig tactic, IMHO (is that correct, pig, i.e. two directions of attack with the unfortuanate OPFOR in the middle?)

[2Sheds_Jackson]

One wonders just how "elite" and "special" a 100,000 man force that has absolutely no combat experience can be.

Probably better described as unconventional, dedicated, and very, very hungry.

[moughoun]

One wonders just how "elite" and "special" a 100,000 man force that has absolutely no combat experience can be.

Probably better described as unconventional, dedicated, and very, very hungry.
Para commando's, marine's, sof's, well they have some combat experience, they have been "training" various military's in Africa and on more then one occasion have been seen fighting, they didn't have much experience in 1950 either, it would be dumb to underestimate them, 18 of them managed to infiltrate the south a few year's ago and stayed on the run for almost 2 week's despite being hunted by 25 thousand south Korean troop's :|

[hughdotoh]

2Sheds_Jackson Posted: Mon Nov 22, 2004 5:59 pm Post subject:

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One wonders just how "elite" and "special" a 100,000 man force that has absolutely no combat experience can be.

Probably better described as unconventional, dedicated, and very, very hungry.


They're likely the best-fed troops of the NKPA, and sufficiently well-informed enough to know why they have to carry out their mission. Not necessarily SF in the Western sense, more like Stosstruppen: best equipment, best training, most supplies, and some degree of independence in action.

[NicNZ]

1. When we consider North Korea's motives for entering South Korea, it seems very unlikely that the North Koreans would try to achieve any kind of wholesale destruction of the South. As I understand it, there is a prevailing sense among all Koreans that both Koreas should be united and the country reunified. There is no feeling in the North or the South that the other should be wiped out; the dispute is over how the country should look after reunification. As such, it seems to me unlikely that the North Koeans would use nuclear weapons on civilian centres or where they were not militaristically left with no perceived alternative.

2. If we believe everything we hear from the media, North Korea seems to be getting weaker as time passes. As such, it seems increasingly unlikey that North Korea would launch an offensive against the south. I suggest that, if anything, North Korea will continue to weaken to the point where it either collapses or the US (and maybe a handful of other countries) can launch an offensive in relative safety.

[Vivelamorte]

One wonders just how "elite" and "special" a 100,000 man force that has absolutely no combat experience can be.

Probably better described as unconventional, dedicated, and very, very hungry.
Para commando's, marine's, sof's, well they have some combat experience, they have been "training" various military's in Africa and on more then one occasion have been seen fighting, they didn't have much experience in 1950 either, it would be dumb to underestimate them, 18 of them managed to infiltrate the south a few year's ago and stayed on the run for almost 2 week's despite being hunted by 25 thousand south Korean troop's :|

I have to support that. During the Korean War, North Koren SF stormed the Blue House to kill the South Korean president. The Blue House is the equivalent to the Whitehouse.

As far as I've understood it, the term "North Korean Special Purpose Forces" is used to sum up all the different types of specialized units. They'll have marine SF, guerilla warfare SF etc. All these units make up the 104,000 men.

Having absolutely no combat experience can be no argument against them. In some cases, SF soldiers go through months and sometimes years of training before having combat experience, and still perform well.

[2Sheds_Jackson]

One wonders just how "elite" and "special" a 100,000 man force that has absolutely no combat experience can be.

Probably better described as unconventional, dedicated, and very, very hungry.
Para commando's, marine's, sof's, well they have some combat experience, they have been "training" various military's in Africa and on more then one occasion have been seen fighting, they didn't have much experience in 1950 either, it would be dumb to underestimate them, 18 of them managed to infiltrate the south a few year's ago and stayed on the run for almost 2 week's despite being hunted by 25 thousand south Korean troop's :|

I have to support that. During the Korean War, North Koren SF stormed the Blue House to kill the South Korean president. The Blue House is the equivalent to the Whitehouse.

As far as I've understood it, the term "North Korean Special Purpose Forces" is used to sum up all the different types of specialized units. They'll have marine SF, guerilla warfare SF etc. All these units make up the 104,000 men.

Having absolutely no combat experience can be no argument against them. In some cases, SF soldiers go through months and sometimes years of training before having combat experience, and still perform well.

If you would recall at the outset of the Korean war, the South didn't even have tanks - or anti-tank weapons. The North did. The North had also prepared for months, and attacked a completely unprepared and unequipped enemy. When the Americans arrived in force, and faced the North - it was an absolute rout. The North was pushed back all the way to China. It was only the numerically superior Chinese that saved the North's bacon.

Yes, I'm sure that the NK "special forces" are great at dressing like civilians, pretending to be South Korean, and blowing up electrical substations. But to me, that doesn't really make them "elite". A small child could do it (and I wouldn't be surprised if Lil' Kim didn't use children). I'm simply trying to draw some distinction between battle hardened elite units, and the tendency of regimes like this to simply hand out fancy uniforms with the word "elite" on them. Hey, I suppose you have to get them all motivated somehow.

[Werewolf01]

I think there is the possibility that ROK/US could lose that fight. In the least we would be piling up the corses and heading south until we could gather enough punch for a counter attack. Tac-Nukes anybody?

[ShakesFIST]

I think there is a good chance of us (The United States) losing. I severely doubt we would use nukes at all until the north uses them first. I picture 2 loss scenarios: Number One, cutting our losses and leaving the Koreans to "Thier War" or Number Two: Bombardment (Air and Sea) with the eventuall counter-invasion of aiborne and seaborne troops.

[Turhapuro]

I think there is a good chance of us (The United States) losing. I severely doubt we would use nukes at all until the north uses them first. .North koreans would probably use chemical weapons so how would US react? Revenge by tactical nukes?

I don't think that ROK/US could lose that fight. DPRK army is big but their equipment is obsolete. Every single tank could be destroyed with any infantry anti-tank equipment. You cannot win wars with so vulnerable battle tanks.

btw has anyone some photos from South Korean bunkers?

[Vivelamorte]

I don't think that ROK/US could lose that fight. DPRK army is big but their equipment is obsolete. Every single tank could be destroyed with any infantry anti-tank equipment. You cannot win wars with so vulnerable battle tanks.

btw has anyone some photos from South Korean bunkers?

The DPRK probably knows that their main forces are vulnerable, that's why they have so many SPF. They'll wage guerilla warfare for years on end, at least that seems to be part of the doctrine.

[Turhapuro]

Hey, I suppose you have to get them all motivated somehow.When NK minisub was discovered by south koreans, all those north koreans killed themselves because they didn't want to get caught. To me it I looks like motivation :)