Prediction for GW2

[rafaelcb]

I think the war will be tremendously easy until Bhagdag is reached. It will be reached in a matter of days, 1 week maximum. Negligible casualties on both sides, with massive Iraqui surenders. Once in Bhagdag, I really don't know what's going to happend.
But if there is fight, it will be bloody and the number of civilian casualties will make us all feel bad.
If there is no battle for Bhagdag, then it will be becasue Hussein has flown the country, possible with the knowledge of US.

Anyone else wants to make his prophecies?

Separate topic: Yesterday there were some images in TV of arab volunteers in Iraq. They really looked pathetic. I bet the will be running as soon a the first bullets start flying.

[Vance]

What is Bhagdag, and what is an Iraqui?

[hood]

Most people in the know are saying that we're not going to enter Bahgdad, but surround it. At that point, our PsyOps people will shift into high gear and with luck, most of the forces in the city will surrender since all electricity, water, food, and fuel will have been cut off and there's obviously no where to go.

[96B]

ahem... Baghdad :lol:

[hood]

*sigh* apparently enough other people are misspelling it on the internet that there's tons of search results under the misspelling.

bahgdad -- > :fork: < -- baghdad

[TacoDelRio]

Gall Darn! This kid who sat next to me didnt know who Sadaam Hussein was until this morning! Either she was lying, or she was blonder than hell. (She was).

Most people seem to think that what happened in october of '93 in Mogadishu will happen again in Bagdad. The US Military has learned since then, and hopefully they'll implement those changes. I don't want to be burning **** under poor leadership! (I apologize for the bad word, shame shame).

My opinion: I don't know what to sya just yet, since I was too young when anything similar happened, and recieved any real heavy publicity (Black Hawk Down), so I'm not going to open my big mouth and say something stupid.

I believe the United States will win, as she has'nt yet, since I've been around, at least.

Hooah! p-)

[...]

Anybody think there is going to be a big para drop? Maybe just go right for the gut? (Baghdad)

[Vance]

I believe the United States will win, as she has'nt yet, since I've been around, at least.

Hooah! p-)
The US hasnt won since youve been around? How old are you, 13?

[warchild1/27scout]

hey vance your a real ****head.if you are too damn smart to go on this website then dont leave any messages.let us dumb fellers talk amongst ourselves

[Desert-Fox]

i read that the iraquis have stockpiles of food and water which will last months! you know saddam is preparing baghdad too withstand any american attack. They cant siege it because that could cost millions or even billions of dollars they cant bomb it because baghdad has one of the best Anti Air Defense in the world around the city and hell they cant even Nuke the damn thing because saddam has built this huge nuke bunker with 6 months supply of food or something! and if the americans invade Saddams soldiers will be ready for them! they aint fighting no militia as in somalia.
the Americans will win though it will just take some time before they take baghdad.


Iceland....

[blancitaloca]

...chill on the blonde jokes... oh well, i guess you'll grow out of it...

[Ratamacue]

They cant siege it because that could cost millions or even billions of dollars they cant bomb it because baghdad has one of the best Anti Air Defense in the world around the city...

1) I think it's fairly safe to assume that we can pinpoint practically every location of every anti-aircraft system in every corner of Baghdad via satellite. Even if our B2 Spirits and F117 Nighthawks can't penetrate their air defenses (which is extremely unlikely), a Tomahawk missile can.

2) Can't siege is because of the cost? I guess you're not aware of how high the US's budget is...


and if the americans invade Saddams soldiers will be ready for them! they aint fighting no militia as in somalia.

Maybe not militia, but just about. Iraq's military, including the Republican Guard, is just about the equivalent of a militia. And rest assured, we will be even more ready, but I guess you're not too familiar with the MOUT training that US troops go through, especially units like Rangers/Marines.

[Trigger]

I bet we see some Airborne/Ranger drops to secure oilfields.

[hood]

Who knows what's real at this point, but they say that 2 oil fields already had their tops knocked off and the oil is draining all over the place. they say that they might be ignited if the invasion happens.. point being, they're already doing the things that Saddam said he wouldn't do in his interview with Dan Rather. On another note, it's great how the French are now saying that if chemical weapons are used, they'd help us out militarily. So in other words, after we're already in there, and we act as human pigeons, they'll do something. They're just slapping us in the face at this point.

[warchild1/27scout]

i heard a good strategist say light forces would air assault and parachute onto oil fields in north and south and secure them and then the heavy forces will drive toward baghdad while simultaneous air strikes would decimate a couple republican guard units and maybe giving others the chance to surrender after seeing the carnage their camrades had faced.the end.ding dong the witch is dead

[Vance]

hey vance your a real ****head.if you are too damn smart to go on this website then dont leave any messages.let us dumb fellers talk amongst ourselves
Take it easy there, bro. I know Skorot is older than me, and it was weird to hear him say that. It might of been a typo, because I know of one war we won (Desert Storm) and I was definatley alive during that period. Are you still mad about my comment towards your spelling? Because if you are, man, I should start putting smiley faces next to my comments. Dont take my joke personally, man. :D <---No sarcasm intened with that smiley.

[warchild1/27scout]

no hard feelings vance i thought you were one of those smart*sses.its good people can throw out thier ideas on this site without facing ridicule cause the more ideas and info thrown out the more we all can learn.i like to hear the young peoples ideas too cause its a whole different perspective

[Vance]

No problem, man. In my history of website forums, people who type really bad usually are really young. I guess there are exeptions. ;)

[Ratamacue]

And the ones who type really well are older, right? I guess I better start typing bad so people don't mistake me for being any older than 14...

[David]

nobody cares if you make a typo every now and again, unless you're an incoherent babbling fool like Bob. and i think what mr.skorotsnoy meant to say was "i believe the united states will win, as she hasn't lost yet, since i've been around, at least." instead of
I believe the United States will win, as she has'nt yet, since I've been around, at least.

[Vance]

And the ones who type really well are older, right? I guess I better start typing bad so people don't mistake me for being any older than 14...
Maybe I should say mature?

[Ratamacue]

I was just kidding. Some people are just too lazy (or aren't deft enough with a keyboard) to type properly, so in my opinion, it really doesn't matter whether you type well or not until it gets to the point of BOB.

Let's stay on topic though.

[papabear]

On another note, it's great how the French are now saying that if chemical weapons are used, they'd help us out militarily. So in other words, after we're already in there, and we act as human pigeons, they'll do something. They're just slapping us in the face at this point.

If I were going to be cynical, I would say the French have made this offer, possibly because certain French companies are responsible for supplying some of the chemicals.

Which is not to deny the possibility that American companies have done the same.

Does anyone have any concrete references to substantiate or discredit either of these claims?

[papabear]

The US Military has learned since then, and hopefully they'll implement those changes. I don't want to be burning **** under poor leadership! (I apologize for the bad word, shame shame).


Well it may be the case that the military still suffers from CRS (Can't Remember Sh**). Afterall, there are those both within and without the military establishment who claim airpower alone could achieve 99.99% of the victory.

[EliteWolf]

well, our boys are trained well..i dont think there will be a big thing in bagdad like somalia, we learned our lesson during that situation, plus this time ground troops will have armor and aircraft support to help them move through the city. i think at least 60% of the iraqi military surrender, they know saddam will loose and are not gunna fight and die for somebody who can no longer threaten them. he tells them to fight or be tortured, well if hes gone they wont be tortured. the other 40% of the more loyal soldiers are probly no match for our boys anyways. this war is gunna be quick, and brutal just like the last one. theres only gunna be one major problem, a desparate saddam WILL USE CHEMICAL WEAPONS. i know that for a fact, hes a radical, a loose cannon, and when backed in a corner he wont go down without a fight. he said it himself, "i will not go into exile"...well saddam ****head, that can damn well be arranged!

im more worried about tony blair losing his job over this, hes a good PM, id hate to see him loose his seat in british parliment.

[rnwang]

The upcoming operation will not be like Op. Desert Strom, but more like Op. Just Cause. The focus or Schwerpunkt in Desert Strom was the liberation of Kuwait. In Just Cause, it was the elimination of Manuel Noriega.

The upcoming operation's Schwerpunkt will be the elimination of Saadam Hussein. Liberation of Iraq is an operational by-product thus capture of Iraqi territory is not neccessary and may be a hinderance.

As with all dictatorships, once you eliminate the dictator the state and it's command and control systems will cease.

High tempo operations must be used. Possible Iraqi counter-actions such as using WMD's, destruction of the Basra oilwells, and attacks on Israel will be avoided if Hussein is eliminated quickly.

Another by-product of the quick elimination of Hussein will be the prevention of any possible breakup of the Iraqi State. If the operation last for any long period of time, the Kurds and the Shia's may create independent states.

Possible scenario:

Phase 1: Intense aerial assault of Iraqi Command and Control Structure and Baghdad's infrastructure. Restricts Hussein's ability to issue commands and to destroy the morale of Iraqi forces by demonstrating the overwhelming power of US forces.

Use USMC land forces on Kuwait/Iraqi border to hold Iraqi forces in place.

Phase 2: Assault and Capture of Saadam Hussein International Airport.
Establishment of Air-Head to rapidly capture Baghdad. Logistical support by air will be possible due to air supremacy by US.

Direct assault on Hussein and his Iraqi Republican Guards. A possible benefit may be the creation of conditions for an "internal" coup d'etat.

Phase 3: Follow-on forces by heavy mech units from the western desert and by USMC forces from Kuwait directed toward Baghdad. But there will be no attempt to hold territory.

Rapid movement must be maintain so as to unbalance the Iraqi forces. Once again US air supremacy will allow for logistical support independent of any land routes.

For this operation to succeed, rapid movement coupled with violent actions must be maintained, or else the Iraqi forces will have the ability to consolidate and take action. This is "Classic Blitzkreig"methodology. With the Schwermpunkt/Focus alway to be on the rapid elimination of Hussein.

[96B]

We couldnt penetrate their air defenses? Are you kidding me? In Desert Storm when they had much more anti aircraft batteries and SAM sites they had not a clue that we were there until the bombs exploded that the F117s dropped. They then began spraying and praying by filling the sky with lead and shooting vollies of SAMs at empty sky. Yes we lost aircraft to their air defenses but those were normal aircraft, not stealth. We can definately fly over them and they wouldnt even know we were there especially now that we have the B2.

[a. enders]

Heard on the news (local,guy does really good reports) that a force of Marines and Army armored cav are to sieze southern oil fields while the 82nd will drop on the northern ones as they are too far to extend a helo from the south and Turkey is being a monkeys ass.

[Jedi]

Just my opinion:

I am pretty certain that there are already advanced units near Baghdad. Most likely, they have identified many key targets on the perimeter of the city, including AA weapons. There may very well be recon units who infiltrated Baghdad prior to the military closing who have identified targets within the city as well.

A logical first course in this war would be for a large amount of Tomahawk missles to immediately hit all of the key locations in Baghdad. At the same time, airstrikes would be hitting targets on the Iraqi border in preparation for ground troup movement.

Quite probably, a path of waste will be made between Turkey and Baghdad, clearing the way for troop transport from the Mediteranian. As US Army troops move from the south towards the oil fields, the Marines will be moving from the north to begin a ground war near Baghdad.

Of course the advanced units will continue to locate and ID key targets for ongoing missle strikes. They will also be doing their best to demoralize and disarm the Republican Guard who are holding the city.

There WILL BE a great number of civilian casualties in Baghdad. There is no way to avoid it. Chances are that 85% of the civilian casualties will be caused directly by the Repulican Guard, in an attempt to sway the American media.

Anyway... that is my opinion of a possible path for this war.

[IBUsquid]

This is how I personally believe this is going to take place:

1) The war will begin not tonight, but tomorrow between 11:00 AM and 5:00 PM EST, to allow for the most cover of night for the first 24 hours of combat.

2) The first thing to be launched against the Iraqis will be Tomahawk missiles launched from our fleet in the Persian Gulf. Northern targets might be hit from Tomahawks launched from ships in the Med.

3) The front line troops (Armored), unless actually fired upon, will bypass the Iraqi troops allowing for the Army's PR people (I forget what they're called. My collegue is deployed with them) and Military Police to round up the prisoners.

4) The armored units are going to make a mad dash for the town of Al Basra, A major port city in Iraq, capturing it for our own use. From Al Brasra we can resupply our troops and send up gunboat units up the river towards Baghdad.

5) I don't think we will send in the 82nd too far ahead simpley because the logistics of keeping them supplied might become a problem if they were to get pinned down, and getting to them might not be easy. So, I think they will drop those guys on airports around the country.

6) I also don't think that any troops will be coming from Turkey, at least not in force, just because the Turkish government doesn't want us to use them as a launching platform.

7) As for the French. They did agree to help out IF chemical weapons are indeed used against us. That was to be expected. Once Iraq uses ANY weapon of mass distructions (WMD) it proves to the whole world EXACTLY why we are doing this in the first place. So, all those nations that were opposed to us invading Iraq will now have the very proof that they needed.

8) Eventually, we will make our way to Baghdad. Once we get there we should surround the city, cut off it's road ways, communications, and electricity. A Siege of the city won't be too costly figuring that the chances are very little ordnance will be expended. Just have to supply food and water to our troops. I'm sure it won't be long before the Iraqi citizens will start surrendering, if that hadn't already.

9) Finally, I believe that we should have The Arab League choose who will be placed in power in Iraq. I think allowing the Islamic people to choose the successor of Hussein proves that we're not just trying to take over the world and inserting puppet governments. Granted, we will have to approve of the choice.

I'm more than interested to see what you all think of these thoughts, and please, don't pull any punches.

[IBUsquid]

The word from the Pentegon commenting knowing when the campaign will begin, "You will know it."

Last night's/this morning's (depending on if you're talking EST or Local times) air raid has already been defined as "A target of oppurtunity." How they came across this target is anybody's guess. It could be from Elint such as satellites, bugs, and Predator drones. Or it could be from Humint such as our SpecOps, spys, or even someone betraying Hussein.

And finally, Tane Angel, about the Boeing stealth plane. I do hope you are not thinking of the V/STOL JTF. If so, that contract was awarded to Lockheed Martin just a couple of months ago.

[IBUsquid]

The word from the Pentegon commenting knowing when the campaign will begin, "You will know it."

Last night's/this morning's (depending on if you're talking EST or Local times) air raid has already been defined as "A target of oppurtunity." How they came across this target is anybody's guess. It could be from Elint such as satellites, bugs, and Predator drones. Or it could be from Humint such as our SpecOps, spys, or even someone betraying Hussein.

And finally, Tane Angel, about the Boeing stealth plane. I do hope you are not thinking of the V/STOL JTF. If so, that contract was awarded to Lockheed Martin just a couple of months ago.