Seraphim
10-21-2003, 09:41 AM
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/nm/20031021/wl_nm/iraq_turkey_dc_1
By Zerin Elci
ANKARA (*******) - Washington looks likely to drop its request that Turkey send troops to Iraq (news - web sites) to back up harried U.S. forces, a decision that could be something of a relief for the Ankara government, Turkish officials and analysts say.
Turkey's troop offer, sanctioned by parliament this month, has provoked strong protest both inside and outside Iraq and is deeply unpopular with the Turkish public.
Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan said at the weekend he preferred not to send troops if Iraqis did not want them there, although the decision rested with NATO (news - web sites) ally Washington.
A senior foreign ministry official, asked late on Monday if he thought Turkish soldiers would go to Iraq, replied: "I don't think so."
He added: "The ball is still with the United States. We have made every kind of preparation since the (parliamentary) draft was approved, but there is still no word from them."
U.S. officials in Ankara were not immediately available for comment.
Turkey's offer of deployment has helped repair its relations with Washington, battered by parliament's refusal in March to let U.S. troops invade Iraq overland from south-eastern Turkey.
But analysts say Washington now seems to be soft-pedalling the idea in the face of opposition from both the U.S. appointed Iraqi Governing Council and northern Iraqi Kurds -- particularly after a United Nations (news - web sites) resolution last week improved chances of winning military support from less controversial contributors.
"I said before that Turkish soldiers would not go because the government and the General Staff are not that mad. Now it is clear the U.S. is not mad either," said Baskin Oran, a political science professor at Ankara University.
"There is a very low possibility of Turkish soldiers going."
Analysts say the Turkish government may privately welcome a decision not to send troops, allowing it to mend fences with Washington without having to face down public opinion at home.
"Erdogan will perhaps be relieved because he won't have to move against domestic opinion, nor will he be acting against U.S. foreign policy," said Jonathan Stevenson of the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London.
KURDISH QUESTION
The downside, analysts say, is Turkey would lose the chance of being in on key decisions on the future of Iraq, a country seen by Turkey's powerful military as very much within its own sphere of interest.
And it would lose the chance of cementing even closer ties with Washington, despite a recent U.S. loan deal providing up to $8.5 billion for Turkey's frail economy.
"They would lose the influence they could have had," said one senior diplomat in Ankara.
But shelving the deployment need not actively damage ties with Washington as long as the two countries can agree on how to deal with Kurdish militants in northern Iraq, analysts say.
Ankara keeps thousands of troops just inside the Iraqi Kurdish enclave, saying it needs to stop Turkish Kurdish guerrillas stirring more trouble in southeastern Turkey after a decades-long conflict that cost more than 30,000 lives.
Washington has signed a preliminary pact with Ankara on how to deal with the threat posed by Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) militants, included on the U.S. list of "terrorist" groups.
But in the absence of a U.S.-led crackdown on the PKK, analysts say Erdogan may need to convince Washington that the troops already in Iraq can stay on, at least for the time being. (Additional reporting by Mark Bentley)
By Zerin Elci
ANKARA (*******) - Washington looks likely to drop its request that Turkey send troops to Iraq (news - web sites) to back up harried U.S. forces, a decision that could be something of a relief for the Ankara government, Turkish officials and analysts say.
Turkey's troop offer, sanctioned by parliament this month, has provoked strong protest both inside and outside Iraq and is deeply unpopular with the Turkish public.
Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan said at the weekend he preferred not to send troops if Iraqis did not want them there, although the decision rested with NATO (news - web sites) ally Washington.
A senior foreign ministry official, asked late on Monday if he thought Turkish soldiers would go to Iraq, replied: "I don't think so."
He added: "The ball is still with the United States. We have made every kind of preparation since the (parliamentary) draft was approved, but there is still no word from them."
U.S. officials in Ankara were not immediately available for comment.
Turkey's offer of deployment has helped repair its relations with Washington, battered by parliament's refusal in March to let U.S. troops invade Iraq overland from south-eastern Turkey.
But analysts say Washington now seems to be soft-pedalling the idea in the face of opposition from both the U.S. appointed Iraqi Governing Council and northern Iraqi Kurds -- particularly after a United Nations (news - web sites) resolution last week improved chances of winning military support from less controversial contributors.
"I said before that Turkish soldiers would not go because the government and the General Staff are not that mad. Now it is clear the U.S. is not mad either," said Baskin Oran, a political science professor at Ankara University.
"There is a very low possibility of Turkish soldiers going."
Analysts say the Turkish government may privately welcome a decision not to send troops, allowing it to mend fences with Washington without having to face down public opinion at home.
"Erdogan will perhaps be relieved because he won't have to move against domestic opinion, nor will he be acting against U.S. foreign policy," said Jonathan Stevenson of the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London.
KURDISH QUESTION
The downside, analysts say, is Turkey would lose the chance of being in on key decisions on the future of Iraq, a country seen by Turkey's powerful military as very much within its own sphere of interest.
And it would lose the chance of cementing even closer ties with Washington, despite a recent U.S. loan deal providing up to $8.5 billion for Turkey's frail economy.
"They would lose the influence they could have had," said one senior diplomat in Ankara.
But shelving the deployment need not actively damage ties with Washington as long as the two countries can agree on how to deal with Kurdish militants in northern Iraq, analysts say.
Ankara keeps thousands of troops just inside the Iraqi Kurdish enclave, saying it needs to stop Turkish Kurdish guerrillas stirring more trouble in southeastern Turkey after a decades-long conflict that cost more than 30,000 lives.
Washington has signed a preliminary pact with Ankara on how to deal with the threat posed by Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) militants, included on the U.S. list of "terrorist" groups.
But in the absence of a U.S.-led crackdown on the PKK, analysts say Erdogan may need to convince Washington that the troops already in Iraq can stay on, at least for the time being. (Additional reporting by Mark Bentley)