US warns China over latest challenge towards Taiwan

[achilles]

By Rupert Cornwell in Washington
15 March 2005


China's new "anti-secession" law authorising the use of force against Taiwan has sent ripples of alarm throughout the region and beyond, drawing a stern reaction from the US, and casting new uncertainty on European plans to resume arms sales to Beijing.

The measure, passed unanimously yesterday by the rubber-stamp Chinese parliament, says that the mainland should use force against Taiwan if the island secedes or "if possibilities for peaceful reunification are completely exhausted".

Even though the text does not specify exactly what China would consider as "secession", the law drew an angry response in Taipei, where President Chen Shui-bian said it would create a backlash, and "only end up driving both sides of the straits further apart".

Already it has prompted a rare show of unity between the Taiwanese government and the feuding opposition parties. The law, said Joseph Wu, chairman of the Mainland Affairs Council and Taiwan's top China policymaker, "violates our fundamental rights" and had caused "utter resentment".

Taiwan separated from China when the Communists took power on the mainland in 1949, but Beijing insists that the island, with a population of 23 million, is part of its territory. Although the US recognises only the government in Beijing, it sells arms to Taiwan, and is committed to defending it against outside attack.

In Washington, the Bush administration issued a sharp warning that the move threatened to undo recent improvements in relations between Beijing and Taipei, and reiterated its opposition to the use of force to resolve the issue.

Scott McClellan, the White House spokesman, described the adoption of the law - which states that mainland China will use "non-peaceful means and other necessary measures" to protect national sovereignty - as "unfortunate". The US opposed any attempt to change the status quo unilaterally, he added.

The worry in Washington is that Taiwan will retaliate, perhaps by edging closer to formalising a de facto independence that already includes separate elections, its own constitution and diplomatic relations with some countries. This in turn could be the trigger for a Chinese military move, leading to a showdown between the US and Beijing.

"We don't hope for foreign intervention, but we are not afraid of it," Wen Jiabao, China's Prime Minister, said after the law was passed, by a majority of 2,896 to nil, with two abstentions.

Such a prospect horrifies a region already on edge over North Korea's nuclear programme. In Tokyo, the Japanese Prime Minister, Junichiro Koizumi, urged both sides to work for a peaceful solution of their disagreement, to avoid "negative impact".

A showdown between the US and China would oblige Japan and other countries, such as Australia, to choose between the US, their traditional ally and military guarantor, and the local economic superpower with whom they have ever more important trading ties.

If China attacked Taiwan, and the US replied with military force, Australia would consult with the US, as stipulated by the 1951 Anzus treaty. "But that's a very different thing from saying we would make a decision to go to war," Alexander Downer, the Foreign Minister, said in Canberra.

The "anti-secession" law may also prompt the European Union to reconsider its controversial plan to lift the arms embargo against China imposed after the Tiananmen Square bloodbath in 1989. Even before the law was passed yesterday, the US was pressing the EU to drop the plan. link (http://news.independent.co.uk/world/americas/story.jsp?story=620170)

[Jin]

I'll reply by refering to an excerpt from an article I found this morning.


China's external debt is relatively small and easily covered by its reserves; whereas both the U.S. and Japan are approximately $7 trillion in the red, which is worse for Japan with less than half the U.S. population and economic clout.



Ironically, part of Japan's debt is a product of its efforts to help prop up America's global imperial stance. For example, in the period since the end of the Cold War, Japan has subsidized America's military bases in Japan to the staggering tune of approximately $70 billion. Refusing to pay for its profligate consumption patterns and military expenditures through taxes on its own citizens, the United States is financing these outlays by going into debt to Japan, China, Taiwan, South Korea, Hong Kong, and India. This situation has become increasingly unstable as the U.S. requires capital imports of at least $2 billion per day to pay for its governmental expenditures. Any decision by East Asian central banks to move significant parts of their foreign exchange reserves out of the dollar and into the euro or other currencies in order to protect themselves from dollar depreciation would produce the mother of all financial crises.



Japan still possesses the world's largest foreign exchange reserves, which at the end of January 2005 stood at around $841 billion. But China sits on a $609.9 billion pile of dollars (as of the end of 2004), earned from its trade surpluses with us. Meanwhile, the American government and Japanese followers of George W. Bush insult China in every way they can, particularly over the status of China's breakaway province, the island of Taiwan. The distinguished economic analyst William Greider recently noted, "Any profligate debtor who insults his banker is unwise, to put it mildly. . . . American leadership has . . . become increasingly delusional -- I mean that literally -- and blind to the adverse balance of power accumulating against it."



The Bush administration is unwisely threatening China by urging Japan to rearm and by promising Taiwan that, should China use force to prevent a Taiwanese declaration of independence, the U.S. will go to war on its behalf. It is hard to imagine more shortsighted, irresponsible policies, but in light of the Bush administration's Alice-in-Wonderland war in Iraq, the acute anti-Americanism it has generated globally, and the politicization of America's intelligence services, it seems possible that the U.S. and Japan might actually precipitate a war with China over Taiwan.

[Seiyuuki]

Japan still possesses the world's largest foreign exchange reserves, which at the end of January 2005 stood at around $841 billion. But China sits on a $609.9 billion pile of dollars (as of the end of 2004), earned from its trade surpluses with us. Meanwhile, the American government and Japanese followers of George W. Bush insult China in every way they can, particularly over the status of China's breakaway province, the island of Taiwan. The distinguished economic analyst William Greider recently noted, "Any profligate debtor who insults his banker is unwise, to put it mildly. . . . American leadership has . . . become increasingly delusional -- I mean that literally -- and blind to the adverse balance of power accumulating against it."

Too bad, if only it was that simple.

[Durandal]

Too bad, if only it was that simple.

Damn, beat me to it.

Edit: There is very little threat here, economically and the Chinese should know this. Imagine if the United States stopped buying...stuff.

See ya.

Ok, ok, I know its a VERY oversimplified look but it is quite rational and real.

Its that simple. What hurts us hurts everyone else. The future may hold a different position for the U.S., economically, as a world leader, but this is NOT the future and things have not changed/declined nearly enough for ANY economic threat to be valid.

50 years form now...maybe.

Right now? *chuckle*

Dump bonds...go ahead, I dare them.

[Belrick]

Simple go to war and freeze ALL there assets and self wipe all dept. Kick them in war and enforce huge reparations upon surrender :D

[Kilgor]

hmmm

doesnt this sound all familiar ?

Authoritian government.
Forced reunification or extreme diplomatic pressure of lands claimed to be "rightfully" theirs.
Strong military Build up.
Government nationalism and a strong sense of overcomming past weakness and humiliation at the hands of foreigners.
A government attitude that its "china's century" and deserved superpower status.

Taiwan is fast turning into this centuries Czechoslovakia

[ElHombre]

There is very little threat here, economically and the Chinese should know this. Imagine if the United States stopped buying...stuff.

See ya.

Ok, ok, I know its a VERY oversimplified look but it is quite rational and real.

Its that simple. What hurts us hurts everyone else. The future may hold a different position for the U.S., economically, as a world leader, but this is NOT the future and things have not changed/declined nearly enough for ANY economic threat to be valid.

50 years form now...maybe.

Right now? *chuckle*

Dump bonds...go ahead, I dare them.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/7170226/site/newsweek/

try this on for size. the chinese are in a far better position to deal with the US than the other way around.

[Laworkerbee]

There is very little threat here, economically and the Chinese should know this. Imagine if the United States stopped buying...stuff.

See ya.

Ok, ok, I know its a VERY oversimplified look but it is quite rational and real.

Its that simple. What hurts us hurts everyone else. The future may hold a different position for the U.S., economically, as a world leader, but this is NOT the future and things have not changed/declined nearly enough for ANY economic threat to be valid.

50 years form now...maybe.

Right now? *chuckle*

Dump bonds...go ahead, I dare them.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/7170226/site/newsweek/

try this on for size. the chinese are in a far better position to deal with the US than the other way around.

Yes, yes for the longest time the Soviet's were going to over take us, then it was the Japanese in the 80's , the Arabs in the 70's, then it's China currently, and then possibly even the EU after the PRC falls flat.

Until the Chinese open up their society, free themselves of deep corruption, and allow the freedom of information, they will fall well below America's peak. This is not to say I hope the PRC fails....hell no,far from it.

A strong, stable, and free China are in everyone's best interest's

[Jin]

Simple go to war and freeze ALL there assets and self wipe all dept. Kick them in war and enforce huge reparations upon surrender :D

You sound like a little kid playing starcraft.




http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/7170226/site/newsweek/

try this on for size. the chinese are in a far better position to deal with the US than the other way around.

Nice article...too bad a lot of Americans don't see the danger to this.

[Durandal]

Nice article...too bad a lot of Americans don't see the danger to this.

Oh, I see the danger in it. This is in many ways independent of China though.

China needs:

Raw Goods (Steel, Iron, OIL, etc)
International Consumers
Additional Food (mainly grain to supplement her production)

She has no way of securing either.

If war were to happen China is cut off. She has no navy and a marginal (yet large) airforce.

Realities.

China does not want a war nor does the U.S...if China did become aggressive it would be suicide...

[Clarsachier]

Quote ;
"Nice article...too bad a lot of Americans don't see the danger to this."


Folk's oblivousness scares the hell out of me.

Our largest trade partner may simply drop the US$ to it's international exchange level when they've enough international investment from EU.

Then what's the U.S. going to do - blockade China?

[Jin]

Quote ;
"Nice article...too bad a lot of Americans don't see the danger to this."


Folk's oblivousness scares the hell out of me.

Our largest trade partner may simply drop the US$ to it's international exchange level when they've enough international investment from EU.

Then what's the U.S. going to do - blockade China?

What the US going to do? According to "Belrick" :roll:


Simple go to war and freeze ALL there assets and self wipe all dept. Kick them in war and enforce huge reparations upon surrender :D




China does not want a war nor does the U.S...

Finally, something I can agree with you on.

[Clarsachier]

I wonder if the U.S. went to war with China over - whatever, do you think that China might take the trade deficit - the big 'loan' they're floating us to the international court for collection????

What would happen then?

War as an extension of diplomacy is grossly inefficient.

[Jin]

I wonder if the U.S. went to war with China over - whatever, do you think that China might take the trade deficit - the big 'loan' they're floating us to the international court for collection????

What would happen then?

War as an extension of diplomacy is grossly inefficient.

I have no idea, no Superpower has ever had a huge deficit like this b4. I'm guessing there would be a worldwide financial crisis if US does goes to war with China. Even worse than the 1997 Asian financial crisis. 100 times worse.

[Clarsachier]

I wonder if the U.S. went to war with China over - whatever, do you think that China might take the trade deficit - the big 'loan' they're floating us to the international court for collection????

What would happen then?

War as an extension of diplomacy is grossly inefficient.

I have no idea, no Superpower has ever had a huge deficit like this b4. I'm guessing there would be a worldwide financial crisis if US does goes to war with China. Even worse than the 1997 Asian financial crisis. 100 times worse.


'Forclosure.'

And when the world goes into financial crisis, the entities affected by the
war - most SE Asian countries including Taiwan would invoke their 'force majeur' clauses and Lloyds (for one) would go of of business. Since the rest of the world sees this issue as internal Chinese politics - the legal
opinion of the world would be against us.

Which is just another reason the issue's academic ; neither the U.S. or China can afford to war with each other.

[Jin]

I wonder if the U.S. went to war with China over - whatever, do you think that China might take the trade deficit - the big 'loan' they're floating us to the international court for collection????

What would happen then?

War as an extension of diplomacy is grossly inefficient.

I have no idea, no Superpower has ever had a huge deficit like this b4. I'm guessing there would be a worldwide financial crisis if US does goes to war with China. Even worse than the 1997 Asian financial crisis. 100 times worse.




'Forclosure.'

And when the world goes into financial crisis, the entities affected by the
war - most SE Asian countries including Taiwan would invoke their 'force majeur' clauses and Lloyds (for one) would go of of business. Since the rest of the world sees this issue as internal Chinese politics - the legal
opinion of the world would be against us.

Which is just another reason the issue's academic ; neither the U.S. or China can afford to war with each other.

China wouldn't start a war unless Taiwan declares independence. Taiwan wouldn't go independent if the US would keep Chen Shui Bien in check.

[MKtexan]

Edit: There is very little threat here, economically and the Chinese should know this. Imagine if the United States stopped buying...stuff.

See ya.

Ok, ok, I know its a VERY oversimplified look but it is quite rational and real.

I agree with this. China's economy is selling a lot of products to the United States. But if the U.S. stoped buying, we would be in trouble too.

[Jin]

Edit: There is very little threat here, economically and the Chinese should know this. Imagine if the United States stopped buying...stuff.

See ya.

Ok, ok, I know its a VERY oversimplified look but it is quite rational and real.

I agree with this. China's economy is selling a lot of products to the United States. But if the U.S. stoped buying, we would be in trouble too.

The only way to stop americans from buying Chinese products is to put sanctions on China. That is almost imposible since so many American companies are in China targetting the Chinese market. You'll just be hurting yourselfs, and I see theres no point to that.

Sorry, if my arguments don't make sense sometimes...English is not my first language.

[Durandal]

There's always India and Indonesia and a smattering of Southeast Asian nations that would be MORE than happy to take up the call.

China does not have a monopoly on making things cheap. ;)

[Jin]

There's always India and Indonesia and a smattering of Southeast Asian nations that would be MORE than happy to take up the call.

China does not have a monopoly on making things cheap. ;)

You do understand that trade is a two way street? If you don't buy from us...we don't buy from you. You want to put sanctions on the largest market in the world? nice... :roll:

[Durandal]

You do understand that trade is a two way street? If you don't buy from us...we don't buy from you. You want to put sanctions on the largest market in the world? nice... :roll:

Maybe you missed my point.

China is the single largest producer of cheap goods. The U.S. population, which makes up only a fraction of the Earth's population, consumes 40% of the world's manufactured goods.

India and Indonesia have HUGE markets and growing buying power as well as cheap labor (in non-tech industries).

There is nothing special about what China manufactures. Its cheap and easily consumed. Anyone with a large population, lower currency value, and low wages (relatively speaking) can do what China is doing.

China NEEDS, desperately NEEDS raw materials. China is not buying manufactured American goods they are buying metals, scrap metal, timber, and grain. All of which are essential for growth.

Do you think WE care who makes our ping pong balls and dinner ware? India...or Thailand, or Vietnam, or Indonesia... is as good as China.

The point here is that regardless of what situation the U.S.'s economy is in, China's new found economic growth and stability is a result of many Western nations (mainly the U.S) buying cheaply produced goods from China. China's growth is less than decade old and still suffer ing from MANY growing pains. China's new found wealth hangs by a thread.

Yet, you feel this constant need to claim that the U.S. knows better than to screw with China.

Come on now.

Again, no one wants ANY conflict. We want your country to be free and enjoy it...partners or competitors....we'll work with you. Making military moves on Taiwan is idiocy. China is VERY vulnerable right now. She is still developing and could lose it all in a conflict.

[<Gypsum Fantastic>]

Simple go to war and freeze ALL there assets and self wipe all dept. Kick them in war and enforce huge reparations upon surrender :D

Don't get ahead of yourself. China is a very different prospect to Iraq or Afghanistan. And the U.S would have little international support, or more likely international opposition.

It's not something I would imagine any President would want to get into willingly!