Bluezoo
05-25-2005, 06:54 PM
The cold shower facing French power
A 'non' to the EU treaty will see France lose its 50 year-old stranglehold on European policy making when Plan B would be 'Plan Blair', according to Brussels insiders. Philippe Ries reports.
http://www.expatica.com/photos/rad60714.jpg
President Chirac warns no vote would make France the "black sheep" of Europe.
A French rejection of the EU constitution threatens to deal a body blow to France's historic dominant influence in the European Union's corridors of power - a prospect fuelling increasing alarm in Brussels.
"A country like mine ... would henceforth play in the second division, whereas in Europe we have always been in the Premier league," said French Foreign Minister Michel Barnier this week.
While other EU states have rejected treaties in the past - Denmark said no to the Maastricht treaty in 1992, and Ireland initially snubbed the Nice Treaty in 2001 - France is another matter.
There is enormous Gallic pride in being one of the founding members of the EU's predecessor institution, while Paris has long been a motor of EU integration along with Germany.
But that role could be destroyed by next Sunday's ballot if polls are right in predicting that the "no" camp will win and reject the constitution, designed to prevent decision-making deadlock in the expanding EU.
Bureaucrats always factor in French demands ... If France is seriously weakened, the French factor will disappear.
President Jacques Chirac has warned that a no vote would turn France into the "black sheep" of Europe. And that would have an immediate impact on French diplomats in Brussels.
"For France it would force a radical change of attitude," said one veteran insider. "Bureaucrats always factor in French demands ... If France is so seriously weakened, the French factor will disappear."
Another senior official recalls what every French diplomat is told on arrival in Brussels: "France sets conditions and in the end it never says 'no' because its conditions are taken into account."
For half a century, barring a few rare exceptions, Paris has grown used to getting its way in Brussels.
http://www.expatica.com/photos/rad9EA93.jpg
France is already painfully aware of its waning influence since EU expansion
"Other member states know that French requests can't be taken lightly. If this taboo is broken, they will no longer be obliged to take France into account.
"The result of the referendum will have shown that these sacrifices are not worthwhile," he added.
In concrete terms this could feed through rapidly into major EU policy areas, from the Common Agricultural Policy to the cultural exception, said the diplomat.
To make matters worse, France's long-term ally Germany has just been plunged into political turmoil by the defeat of the ruling Social Democrats in a state election, forcing Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder to call early national polls.
France is also already painfully aware of its waning influence since last year's "big-bang" EU expansion, taking in 10 mostly ex-communist states who often look for direction more to Britain and the US than older EU states.
Britain would see opening before it the most fantastic window of opportunity.
"Plan B is the Blair Plan," said one EU official, referring to Britain's Prime Minister who has just been re-elected for an historic third term, and who will take over the EU's rotating presidency from Luxembourg on July 1.
Experts say his New Labour government would see opening before it "the most fantastic window of opportunity" since the period preceding the Lisbon EU summit in 2000, which adopted a 10-year plan for liberal economic reform.
Faced with a French no - and possibly a Dutch one three days later - Blair would be able to argue that "the EU's credibility gap is due to its lack of results, itself due to an absence of economic reform," said one source....
For the full text, go to:
http://www.expatica.com/source/site_article.asp?subchannel_id=25&story_id=20371
A 'non' to the EU treaty will see France lose its 50 year-old stranglehold on European policy making when Plan B would be 'Plan Blair', according to Brussels insiders. Philippe Ries reports.
http://www.expatica.com/photos/rad60714.jpg
President Chirac warns no vote would make France the "black sheep" of Europe.
A French rejection of the EU constitution threatens to deal a body blow to France's historic dominant influence in the European Union's corridors of power - a prospect fuelling increasing alarm in Brussels.
"A country like mine ... would henceforth play in the second division, whereas in Europe we have always been in the Premier league," said French Foreign Minister Michel Barnier this week.
While other EU states have rejected treaties in the past - Denmark said no to the Maastricht treaty in 1992, and Ireland initially snubbed the Nice Treaty in 2001 - France is another matter.
There is enormous Gallic pride in being one of the founding members of the EU's predecessor institution, while Paris has long been a motor of EU integration along with Germany.
But that role could be destroyed by next Sunday's ballot if polls are right in predicting that the "no" camp will win and reject the constitution, designed to prevent decision-making deadlock in the expanding EU.
Bureaucrats always factor in French demands ... If France is seriously weakened, the French factor will disappear.
President Jacques Chirac has warned that a no vote would turn France into the "black sheep" of Europe. And that would have an immediate impact on French diplomats in Brussels.
"For France it would force a radical change of attitude," said one veteran insider. "Bureaucrats always factor in French demands ... If France is so seriously weakened, the French factor will disappear."
Another senior official recalls what every French diplomat is told on arrival in Brussels: "France sets conditions and in the end it never says 'no' because its conditions are taken into account."
For half a century, barring a few rare exceptions, Paris has grown used to getting its way in Brussels.
http://www.expatica.com/photos/rad9EA93.jpg
France is already painfully aware of its waning influence since EU expansion
"Other member states know that French requests can't be taken lightly. If this taboo is broken, they will no longer be obliged to take France into account.
"The result of the referendum will have shown that these sacrifices are not worthwhile," he added.
In concrete terms this could feed through rapidly into major EU policy areas, from the Common Agricultural Policy to the cultural exception, said the diplomat.
To make matters worse, France's long-term ally Germany has just been plunged into political turmoil by the defeat of the ruling Social Democrats in a state election, forcing Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder to call early national polls.
France is also already painfully aware of its waning influence since last year's "big-bang" EU expansion, taking in 10 mostly ex-communist states who often look for direction more to Britain and the US than older EU states.
Britain would see opening before it the most fantastic window of opportunity.
"Plan B is the Blair Plan," said one EU official, referring to Britain's Prime Minister who has just been re-elected for an historic third term, and who will take over the EU's rotating presidency from Luxembourg on July 1.
Experts say his New Labour government would see opening before it "the most fantastic window of opportunity" since the period preceding the Lisbon EU summit in 2000, which adopted a 10-year plan for liberal economic reform.
Faced with a French no - and possibly a Dutch one three days later - Blair would be able to argue that "the EU's credibility gap is due to its lack of results, itself due to an absence of economic reform," said one source....
For the full text, go to:
http://www.expatica.com/source/site_article.asp?subchannel_id=25&story_id=20371